Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[nate33]

Dinwiddie (28) Holiday (20)
Beal (34) KCP (14)
KCP (14) Bertans (20) Kispert (14)
Hachimura (28) Kuzma (20)
Gafford (28) Harrell (20)

Once Bryant & Avdija are healthy, some trades would have to be made.

This is basically where I'm at too. Though I think Dinwiddie will get more like 30-32 and Holiday 16-18. Also, at small forward, I think Bertans gets more like 24 and Kispert just 10.

Ultimately, the rotation isn't too complicated while Avdija and Bryant are out. But when they get back, it'll be a problem.

Which is why I had it this way:

Dimwiddie---Holiday
Beal--------KCP
Bertans-----Kispert
Hachimura---Kuzma
Gafford-----Harrell

Though it is probably more balanced if you flip Kuzma and Hachimura.
I think Rui is more engaged and aggressive if he is a starter.

It's basically the same rotation except as Dat2U's, except in Dat2U's, KCP grabs a few extra minutes at starting SF in addition to his backup SG minutes.

I don't see KCP being limited to just 14 minutes. He is arguably the 3rd best player on the roster.

[Frichuela]

I think what's more likely to happen is the following for the first 20 games with Bryant out (and Deni on an unofficial minutes restriction). Expected minutes distribution in brackets:

PG: Dinwiddie (28), Holiday (12), Neto (8)
SG: Beal (34), KCP (12), Neto (2)
SF: Kuzma (24), KCP (12), Deni (12)
PF: Hachimura (28), Bertans (16), Deni (4)
C: Gafford (24), Harrell (24).

Hopefully Bertans and/or Kuzma outperform and we can sell one of them at a premium by the trade deadline!

I don't see Neto getting 10 minutes a night if everyone is healthy. He probably won't get off the bench.

Wes Jr. may have to try and implement a revolving "load management" system where at least one of our rotation forwards just gets a DNP-CD every 5 games or so. I'd rather run a 4-player rotation at the two forward spots, with the fifth guy not getting into the game, than run a 5-player rotation at the forward spots where nobody gets enough minutes to get into a rhythm.

We can do the same thing at guard, though we're probably not good enough to sit Dinwiddie or Beal all that much.

Yes, agreed. When everyone healthy, Holiday and Neto are likely to take turns.

[doclinkin]

This is basically where I'm at too. Though I think Dinwiddie will get more like 30-32 and Holiday 16-18. Also, at small forward, I think Bertans gets more like 24 and Kispert just 10.

Ultimately, the rotation isn't too complicated while Avdija and Bryant are out. But when they get back, it'll be a problem.

Which is why I had it this way:

Dimwiddie---Holiday
Beal--------KCP
Bertans-----Kispert
Hachimura---Kuzma
Gafford-----Harrell

Though it is probably more balanced if you flip Kuzma and Hachimura.
I think Rui is more engaged and aggressive if he is a starter.

It's basically the same rotation except as Dat2U's, except in Dat2U's, KCP grabs a few extra minutes at starting SF in addition to his backup SG minutes.

I don't see KCP being limited to just 14 minutes. He is arguably the 3rd best player on the roster.

Sure, if there's an early sub I'd expect to see
SDw
Beal
KCP
Kuzma
Gafford

Better defense and rebounding, though it doesn't give us that floor warping effect that a perimeter Big like Bertans has where teams scramble to mark him and our interior attackers get free to attack lanes and rack fouls on opposing starters.

[dckingsfan]

What is interesting is that we don't have a real historical context to understand what Wes will do...

[queridiculo]

In my mind you want to start the game out with a decent enough balance between offense and defense, but if I had to put an emphasis on either one of those aspects I'd heavily favor an approach that gets us into an offensive flow early.

This is an aspect the Wizards struggled with early in games last season.

I'd start with Gafford in the game early as a lob threat and a defensive eraser sharing the floor with Dinwiddie and Beal, and I'd complement that group with KCP and Hachimura.

Kuzma spreads the floor better than Rui and is an underrated help defender, but I feel like on the ball you get more defensive versatility with Hach, and I like the physicality he brings to the game.

KCP has to be on the floor to open games, close quarters and at the end of games because he sets the tone defensively.

The lineup I role with to start the game is:

Dinwiddie
Beal
KCP
Hachimura
Gafford

Harrell is the first guy off the bench, in part because I'll assume that Gafford is going to continue to struggle a bit with his conditioning and because he finds himself in foul trouble quite a bit.

Situation with both backup forward spots is kind of fluid to me and may depend on defensive matchups.

Kuzma seems like the natural fit to slot in when Rui comes out, but I could see Bertans filling that slot as well.

Given the teams lack of depth at small forward and KCP probably playing some of those backup guard minutes, Kuz and Davis sharing the floor together seems inevitable.

If I had to guess at a lineup primarily featuring bench players I'd guess it would look like this:

Holiday
KCP/Neto
Bertans/Kispert
Kuzma
Harrell

I don't expect Avdija and Bryant to contribute to start the season so they're not getting any consideration at the moment and while Kispert is going to get a look at guard, I expect his inability to defend primarily have him end up playing at SF.

[Ruzious]

The injuries to Bryant and Deni may oddly be beneficial - as they unclog some of the depth issues for the first month or 2 of the season. And by the time they're ready, other injuries or trades or playing factors might open up space for Bryant and Deni - all part of the genius of Tommy's planning. Whether or not that Westbrook trade with all its offshoots turns out to be beneficial in the long run, it really took so much planning and thinking... an artful nuanced job by Tommy. If it works out well, I think it'll go down as a case study in how to use all aspects of building a roster into one trade.

[Ruzious]

What is interesting is that we don't have a real historical context to understand what Wes will do...

He won't just say, Russ and Brad - get us some points?

[nate33]

Kuzma spreads the floor better than Rui and is an underrated help defender, but I feel like on the ball you get more defensive versatility with Hach, and I like the physicality he brings to the game.

Agree.

Hachimura gets too much hate around here for the lackluster rebounding numbers. Being an effective big man is more than just accumulating stats. You have to be able to physically match up with opposing players and prevent them from dominating the paint. Hachimura can match up with an PF in the league, from Giannis to Randall to Tatum. If you start him on those guys, he'll keep them in check. I don't want to see a starting lineup where Kuzma is responsible to guard Giannis or Davis or Randall.

[nate33]

I think a lot of the rotation may be dictated by how well Holiday plays as a the primary instigator of the offense. If Holiday can run the second unit without relying on either Beal or Dinwiddie as a crutch, then it really eases the constraints on the rotation. Unseld could just go with wholesale substitutions and keep things relatively simple: starters play 8 minutes, bench plays 8, starters come back in for the final 8 of the half (with Beal and perhaps Dinwiddie staying on the court a little longer than 8)

If Holiday can't run the 2nd unit offense alone, then Unseld will have to finagle the lineups so that one of Beal or Dinwiddie is on the court at all times, like how Brooks handled Beal and Westbrook. And if he does that, then it gets a little harder to make sure KCP is rested enough after his starting stint to cover the backup SG minutes when Beal sits. Those constraints really take away his flexibility in the backcourt to ride a hot hand. He'll have to be pretty rigid with the rotations of Dinwiddie, Beal and KCP.

The center rotation is easy. Just alternate Gafford and Harrell in 6 minute stints so that both guys can play with max energy.

Then it's just a matter of mixing and matching Rui, Bertans, Kuzma and Kispert into the remaining forward minutes not taken by KCP.

[Ruzious]

Holiday's much like Neto on offense - far more a 2 than a 1 and not a creator. He'll most likely need to play with either Beal or Din to have success out there - which shouldn't be a major problem, as long as Beal and Din stay healthy.

[doclinkin]

Holiday's much like Neto on offense - far more a 2 than a 1 and not a creator. He'll most likely need to play with either Beal or Din to have success out there - which shouldn't be a major problem, as long as Beal and Din stay healthy.

Holiday and Neto have both put up decent numbers in a ballhandling role in the past.

In Holiday's best year he put up ~7 assists against 2.5 TOs per 100 possessions in 25 minutes. He can penetrate and make the smart pass, he just doesn't finish when he does get inside. His outside shooting is solid though.

Likewise Neto has posted over 9ast/3TO's per 100 possessions, albeit in only 12mpg playing behind Ricky Rubio.

I do think Wes will find a use for both. Backcourt 3FG shooting prevents traps and perimeter doubling on guards who drive. Behind Beal we only have KCP at back-up Shooting guard, unless Kispert shows he can grow into the role. People have KCP suiting up at SF for significant minutes, if so someone will have to fill in as a passer/shooter in the back court since pretty much nobody else on the roster passes much at all. We have hairtrigger shooters in KCP/Bertans/Kispert and tunnelvision offensive players like Kuzma and Rui. Only Deni seems willing to pass when he gets the ball. Harrell will at times if his roll to the basket is cut off. Rui though, he'd rather dribble into a double team and increase the degree of difficulty on his pull-up fadeaway. It looks more like Melo that way. I hope Wes can help him make better choices, but I don't know that he will see the pass options instinctively.

[nate33]

Holiday's much like Neto on offense - far more a 2 than a 1 and not a creator. He'll most likely need to play with either Beal or Din to have success out there - which shouldn't be a major problem, as long as Beal and Din stay healthy.

Holiday and Neto have both put up decent numbers in a ballhandling role in the past.

In Holiday's best year he put up ~7 assists against 2.5 TOs per 100 possessions in 25 minutes. He can penetrate and make the smart pass, he just doesn't finish when he does get inside. His outside shooting is solid though.

Likewise Neto has posted over 9ast/3TO's per 100 possessions, albeit in only 12mpg playing behind Ricky Rubio.

I do think Wes will find a use for both. Backcourt 3FG shooting prevents traps and perimeter doubling on guards who drive. Behind Beal we only have KCP at back-up Shooting guard, unless Kispert shows he can grow into the role. People have KCP suiting up at SF for significant minutes, if so someone will have to fill in as a passer/shooter in the back court since pretty much nobody else on the roster passes much at all. We have hairtrigger shooters in KCP/Bertans/Kispert and tunnelvision offensive players like Kuzma and Rui. Only Deni seems willing to pass when he gets the ball. Harrell will at times if his roll to the basket is cut off. Rui though, he'd rather dribble into a double team and increase the degree of difficulty on his pull-up fadeaway. It looks more like Melo that way. I hope Wes can help him make better choices, but I don't know that he will see the pass options instinctively.

Part of the problem may have been due to Westbrook. With Westbrook, you don't pass. You let him handle the ball, and when he passes, you shoot. It'll be interesting to see if guys like Rui, Kuzma, Kispert and KCP can show that they can pass the ball if put into a system where they are asked to do more than catch-and-shoot.

[doclinkin]

Holiday's much like Neto on offense - far more a 2 than a 1 and not a creator. He'll most likely need to play with either Beal or Din to have success out there - which shouldn't be a major problem, as long as Beal and Din stay healthy.

Holiday and Neto have both put up decent numbers in a ballhandling role in the past.

In Holiday's best year he put up ~7 assists against 2.5 TOs per 100 possessions in 25 minutes. He can penetrate and make the smart pass, he just doesn't finish when he does get inside. His outside shooting is solid though.

Likewise Neto has posted over 9ast/3TO's per 100 possessions, albeit in only 12mpg playing behind Ricky Rubio.

I do think Wes will find a use for both. Backcourt 3FG shooting prevents traps and perimeter doubling on guards who drive. Behind Beal we only have KCP at back-up Shooting guard, unless Kispert shows he can grow into the role. People have KCP suiting up at SF for significant minutes, if so someone will have to fill in as a passer/shooter in the back court since pretty much nobody else on the roster passes much at all. We have hairtrigger shooters in KCP/Bertans/Kispert and tunnelvision offensive players like Kuzma and Rui. Only Deni seems willing to pass when he gets the ball. Harrell will at times, if his roll to the basket is cut off. Rui though, he'd rather dribble into a double team and increase the degree of difficulty on his pull-up fadeaway. It looks more like Melo that way. I hope Wes can help him make better choices, but I don't know that he will see the pass options instinctively.

Part of the problem may have been due to Westbrook. With Westbrook, you don't pass. You let him handle the ball, and when he passes, you shoot. It'll be interesting to see if guys like Rui, Kuzma, Kispert and KCP can show that they can pass the ball if put into a system where they are asked to do more than catch-and-shoot.

For Rui? I doubt that's the key problem. He didn't pass in college either.

Bertans and KCP, they have low TO rates because what they do is shoot when they get the ball. For KCP, Kuzma, if you have AD or LeBJ to pass to, and each other, you'd figure you'd get a few assists even by accident. I know LeBron dominates the ball as well, but you have some high percentage players you can feed back on a give and go.

[Dark Faze]

I've got Beal playing 10mpg at point guard. So like, 8 minutes for Holiday or Neto a night.

Gotta imagine that Tommy has trade ideas in his mind. Roster is totally overstuffed.

I hope Hachimura breaks out, but I'm moving on if he doesn't have a big year. Not interested in shelling out 15+ million a season for what he produced last year.

[NatP4]

If Bryant isn’t ready and Avdija is in a backup role, like Shep said today, I would do this:

Dinwiddie Holiday/Neto
Beal Kispert
KCP Avdija
Hachimura Bertans Kuzma
Gafford Harrell

One of Bertans/Kuzma is either gone before the season starts, or Avdija isn’t ready on day 1.

[nate33]

I've got Beal playing 10mpg at point guard. So like, 8 minutes for Holiday or Neto a night.

Gotta imagine that Tommy has trade ideas in his mind. Roster is totally overstuffed.

I hope Hachimura breaks out, but I'm moving on if he doesn't have a big year. Not interested in shelling out 15+ million a season for what he produced last year.

I seriously doubt it.

Contrary to the preferences of most fans, coaches almost always opt for skill over size. Wes will probably prefer another decision-maker on the court alongside Beal rather than put size around Beal and have Beal play point.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

IMO the best starting lineup is...

Starting 5:
Dimwitty
Beal
Kuzma
Hachimura
Gafford

Watch on YouTube

I like the versatility of this 5 to start games. This unit has size, can run, defend and score. Dimwit & Beal compliment each other, have similar size to rotate and switch, and can interchange roles (SG/PG) offensively and defensively. Similarly Kuzma & Rui are interchangeable at Forward, both are similar size & can switch & rotate between SF & PF, they give us size & length, ability to score & defend. Gafford inside to defend, protect the rim, lob threat, can run & intimidate. Set the tone to start the game with size & defense in the front court & DWit/Beal running the show from the backcourt.


Top 7:
Top reserves I go with KCP (2/3) & Deni (3/4). KCP sub for Beal whenever he needs out, or at 3 when we want to up the tempo & intensity. Can insert KCP in for Kuzma, or in for Rui with Kuz sliding to 4. Deni can sub in at Forward, keeping similar size as Rui & Kuz with the versatility to play the 3 or 4 with either Rui or Kuz (or KCP), can defend, score, pass.



Rest of bench:
Bryant and/or Harrell back up Gafford depending on matchups, game flow, health, fouls, etc.

Then we have Holiday and/or Neto backup G depending on matchups, gameflow, health, etc.

When we need shooting off the bench we have Bertans & Kispert.

That's 13 deep.


End of Game Unit:
Rui
Kuz
KCP
Beal
DWit

Can run, score, defend, versatile.

[nate33]

IMO the best starting lineup is...

Starting 5:
Dimwitty
Beal
Kuzma
Hachimura
Gafford

I think that lineup might play well together, and could work in crunch time, particularly if the opposition played a scoring SF too big for KCP to guard. But I don't love that group as the starting lineup because it features literally our 4 best one-on-one scorers in the lineup together. That results in the entire bench being populated exclusively by dependent scorers.

I think the synergy would work much better if we put a dependent catch-and-shoot scorer at wing alongside Beal and Dinwiddie (either KCP or Bertans, or even Kispert if he is up to the task) and then have Kuzma be the bail-out scorer for the 2nd unit. (I would also rotate Beal and Dinwiddie so that one of them is always on the floor with the bench crew.)

[SUPERBALLMAN]

IMO the best starting lineup is...

Starting 5:
Dimwitty
Beal
Kuzma
Hachimura
Gafford

I think that lineup might play well together, and could work in crunch time, particularly if the opposition played a scoring SF too big for KCP to guard. But I don't love that group as the starting lineup because it features literally our 4 best one-on-one scorers in the lineup together. That results in the entire bench being populated exclusively by dependent scorers.

I think the synergy would work much better if we put a dependent catch-and-shoot scorer at wing alongside Beal and Dinwiddie (either KCP or Bertans, or even Kispert if he is up to the task) and then have Kuzma be the bail-out scorer for the 2nd unit. (I would also rotate Beal and Dinwiddie so that one of them is always on the floor with the bench crew.)

What I like is The depth & versatility. KCP at 3 boom we're uptempo, Kuz or Rui at 3 we're big, insert Deni our ball movement improves, insert Bertans our shooting/spacing improves, both Holiday or Neto can be paired with Beal or DWit. All our centers can run. Team should be improved defensively, having Gafford from the start and KCP will certainly help. We are 13 deep with versatility & skill, all these guys can switch, they all play hard, high motor, intensity, & good effort. This is a team that will play smart and play hard.

At first I wanted to flip a bunch of these guys, but the more I look at this roster the more I like it as is. I could really see this group meshing.

I also think Wes will bring an intelligent philosophy focusing on ball movement and defense to take advantage of this group and bring out their positive attributes, unlike the mindless approach of our previous coach.

Watch on YouTube

[doclinkin]

Game flow

======1st Q======|======2nd Q=====|=====3rd Q=====|=====4th Q=====
Pg name------------>name------->name----------->name-------->name-------
SG name-------------------->name---------->name----------->name----------
SF name------------>name------->name----------->name-------->name-------
PF name--------------------name--->--------->name-------------- >name-----
C name------------>name------->name----------->name-------->name--------

10 man rotation. Game flow.

======1st Q======|======2nd Q=====|=====3rd Q=====|=====4th Q=====
Din-------------Holi------->Beal-Din-------->Din---------Holi/Beal---Din----------
Beal-----------KCP--------------Beal-------->Beal--------KCP--------Beal--------
Bertans------Kispert-------------KCP/Rui---->Ber/Kisp-----Rui---------KCP-------
Rui------------Kuz-------->Rui----->Kuz---->Kuz/Rui----Kuz--------Rui/Kuz---
Gafford-------Trez------>Gaff----Trez------>Gafford------Trez---------Gafford---

PG: Dinwiddie, spot minutes for Holiday and Beal. Holiday defending to hold a lead, or shooting from outside. Assumes Dinwiddie is on minutes restriction while regaining stamina.

SG: Beal and KCP. At times when Din is out, KCP will get minutes next to Beal with a 2nd ranged shooter (Bertans/Kispert/Kuz). Opening the floor for Rui/Gafford/Trez to get loose inside. You want at least 2 ranged shooters on the floor so you can attack the interior with speed and force fouls on opposing Bigs. Sub Neto in any spot if KCP/Beal are in foul trouble or need rest.

SF: Ranged shooters to open the floor for dribble drive attacks. Occasionally sub Rui when perimeter 1-on-1 defense is required. 2nd half: play whichever is playing best, but finish with the off/def balanced KCP. Try Kispert when you can afford a few rookie moments. Develop him to take longer stints if you can afford to sub him for Bertans.

PF: Rui starts so that Kuzma can play with the "LA line" (KCP,Trez) on a late 1st to early 2nd stint. (This line has perimeter defenders and outside shooters, enticing opponents to go small and chase to the 3pt line. Trez can blow past most bigs, Kuzma attacks close-outs well. Holiday drives to kick, Beal drives to attack). 2nd Half: whichever of Rui/Kuz is shooting hot, or playing better at both ends. Substitute freely so they can play with energy.

C: Gafford and Trez alternate depending on Gafford's foul trouble. However: Gafford plays whenever Bertans is on the court, and will finish the game.

Concept is you either have Bertans warping the floor, or 2+ shooters opening it up. Dribble drive attack from Beal and Dinwiddie, and also Trez/Kuzma/Rui vs Bigs. Gafford covers the interior if Bertans is blown past by perimeter SFs, Rui and Kuz keep each other fresh at PF. KCP fills in at 2/3 as needed. Kispert is the understudy for Bertans. Neto (not pictured) is used in case of fouls or when a 3 is needed.