Spencer 'Crypto' Dinwiddie Thread (He's Amazingly Sucky BTW)

[nate33]

I posted this in the game thread, but it belongs here:

Dinwiddie just seems slow. Even in games he plays well, it's mostly because he is hitting stepback 3's or the pullup from midrange. He is not going to the rim AT ALL.

Two years ago in his last healthy season, he shot 31% of his shots from the rim and averaged 10.6 FTA's per 100 possessions. This year, he is shooting 11% of his attempts at the rim and averaging just 4.7 FTA's/100 possessions.

I sincerely hope that it's just an issue with confidence in his knee and that it'll get better as the season goes on.

[nate33]

I went ahead and merged the Appreciation Thread and the Amazingly Sucky Thread. It's too confusing to have both.

[doclinkin]

I posted this in the game thread, but it belongs here:

Dinwiddie just seems slow. Even in games he plays well, it's mostly because he is hitting stepback 3's or the pullup from midrange. He is not going to the rim AT ALL.

Two years ago in his last healthy season, he shot 31% of his shots from the rim and averaged 10.6 FTA's per 100 possessions. This year, he is shooting 11% of his attempts at the rim and averaging just 4.7 FTA's/100 possessions.

I sincerely hope that it's just an issue with confidence in his knee and that it'll get better as the season goes on.

I think the rules changes have altered his game. Previously he was excellent at drawing contact and baiting defenders into cheap fouls. This gave him room to operate since players who were caught reaching would give a little more space the next time, especially once the fouls stacked up. Maybe his rehabbed knee is also a factor, but this year refs are rewarding finishers. If you can score while being fouled they will call it, if not, it was incidental contact. It's paradoxical but that is the effect of the rules tweaks. If Dinwiddie can get stronger and figure a move that powers through defenders then his game will pick back up. In that respect I bet the knee injury does hold him back. In any case he does seem to have a knack for the clutch three late in the game.

[FAH1223]

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[payitforward]

I don't get the criticism of Spencer -- it's completely off base.

He's scoring more points per 40 minutes than an average PG
He's scoring at a slightly higher than average TS% than an average PG
He's getting way more defensive boards than an average PG
He's getting more offensive boards than an average PG
He's getting more assists than an average PG
He's turning the ball over less than an average PG
He's fouling less than an average PG
He's getting about as many blocks as an average PG.
His only sub-par stat is steals -- he isn't getting as many steals as an average PG.

If a player is average at all but one of the above, but he is better than average at that one thing -- that guy is an above average player.

Spencer is above average at pretty much everything. Above all, why the critique of his scoring? He's scoring just fine.

Spencer is having an extremely good season. In fact, if Spencer plays out the year at his current level, he'll have had the best season of his career so far.

We are 7-2 at home & 6-6 on the road. That extends to a 52+ win season.

[DCZards]

Sorry, PIF, Spencer is not playing as well as he’s capable of most games, imo...despite how the numbers look. I was huge fan of Din well before he joined the Zards and I was thrilled when we signed him.

But I've been extremely underwhelmed and disappointed by his play thus far most nights. Spencer's strength has always been getting to the basket...it's also how he best impacts the game and winning. He's not doing that nearly enough this season...in fact he hasn't been looking for his shot much at all most nights.

You're right that Din is playing better than the "average" PG but I don't necessarily consider that high praise, especially for someone who was a borderline all-star a couple of seasons ago.

I do believe, however, that Dinwiddie is still suffering from the effects of that ACL injury, thus no back-to-back games. And I'm hopeful that his confident, attacking style of play will return to what it was in the past by the second half of the season.

[payitforward]

Kevin's article is a great example of how to obscure the truth by using numbers.

The single most obvious point of illogic is the use "100 possessions" as a comparative metric. Games are not played in units of 100 possessions. They are played in units of 48 minutes. Minutes not possessions. & the number of possessions per game varies. The number of possessions per 48 minutes that is. I.e. pace.

For example, Kevin points out that the Wizards score 6% fewer points per 100 possessions with both Brad & Spence on the floor than with both of them off (103.2 vs 109.9).

What if the pace goes up by 7% with both guys off vs. both guys on? Then, in any fixed set of minutes (as opposed to possessions), the Wizards will score more points with them both on than with them both off. The opposite of Kevin's point.

Then there's the table showing that 5 guys (Beal, Gafford, Trez, Kuzma & KCP) shoot on average almost 20% better with Dinwiddie off the floor than with him on.

Tell me something: does Trez take the same shots with Dinwiddie on the floor as with Dinwiddie off the floor? The same kinds of shots? The same number of shots?

How about if it's with Brad on the floor or not on the floor -- what happens to Trez's shooting?

[payitforward]

Sorry, PIF, Spencer is not playing as well as he’s capable of most games, imo...despite how the numbers look. I was huge fan of Din well before he joined the Zards and I was thrilled when we signed him....

As I'm sure you recall, I too was a big Dinwiddie fan long before we acquired him. In fact, I'm pretty sure I was the first here to be looking at him as a terrific player, one we should target. I believe I specifically called for us to trade for him at least 3 years ago. I don't recall you doing that -- or that you agreed with me. That said, you may well have!

...But I've been extremely underwhelmed and disappointed by his play thus far most nights. ...in fact he hasn't been looking for his shot much at all most nights....

Respectfully, Zards, this is the kind of statement it's really hard to know what to do with....

1. Who takes the most FGAs on the Wizards? Brad. Who is second? Spencer Dinwiddie.
2. Is Spencer taking fewer FGAs per 40 minutes than his career average or more FGAs than his career average? He's taking more.
3. Is any other player (not including Brad) within 10% of of equalling Dinwiddie in FGAs? No. & only 2 guys are even within 20%.
4. Is Spencer taking more 3pt shots than any other Wizard? No. That would be Davis -- but Spencer is 2d behind Bertans. Taking more than Brad.
5. Is he shooting the 3 well compared to his previous career -- extremely well, yes. There was one year where he shot 0.6 % higher -- tho that was on about 1/3 as many attempts.

...You're right that Din is playing better than the "average" PG but I don't necessarily consider that high praise, especially for someone who was a borderline all-star a couple of seasons ago....

Forgive me, old friend, but I didn't say that. I said that a player who was average in everything except above average in one thing was, in all, "above average."

I pointed out that Dinwiddie is above average in just about absolutely everything! Spencer Dinwiddie is having his best NBA season ever. Indeed, he is a borderline all star right now.

This, OTOH, is a substantive point:

...Spencer's strength has always been getting to the basket...it's also how he best impacts the game and winning. He's not doing that nearly enough this season.... I do believe, however, that Dinwiddie is still suffering from the effects of that ACL injury, thus no back-to-back games. And I'm hopeful that his confident, attacking style of play will return to what it was in the past by the second half of the season.

I think you are very likely right that he's not physically at his previous peak. & we both hope he'll get there. & we both hope that'll get him attacking the basket more.

But, when you say that is "how he best impacts the game and winning," you are putting him in a box, Zards! Spencer is multi-faceted player -- above all he's a thinking player, I'd even say an intellectual player, & he's figured out other ways to "impact... winning."

For one thing, like pretty much everyone else he's getting to the line a lot less this year -- but... he's pushed up his FT%, & right now his TS% is the 3d best of his career (& going up).

For another, he's turned one of his few weaknessed -- rebounding -- into a strength: he's getting almost 55% more rebounds this year than his previous career average. IOW, for every 2 he used to get, he's getting 3 now.

Overall, I don't know how anyone could imagine we'd be 13-8 if our key acquisition wasn't playing well! & he is. Really well!

[DCZards]

As I'm sure you recall, I too was a big Dinwiddie fan long before we acquired him. In fact, I'm pretty sure I was the first here to be looking at him as a terrific player, one we should target. I believe I specifically called for us to trade for him at least 3 years ago. I don't recall you doing that -- or that you agreed with me. That said, you may well have.

I for one do not rush to the RealGM board every time I have a thought about the Zards, the NBA, individual players, etc. I have no desire or interest in being able to claim I was the first or only one to say this or that.

This is not a competition. I repeat, this is not a competition.

[payitforward]

I wasn't feeling, & don't feel, competitive. That said, it seems I offended you: my bad & I apologize.

I also & equally meant the following sentence in which I said you may well have touted Spence along with me. Who knows...? Maybe I got the idea from you!

In any case, I was just trying to point out what a good season Spencer Dinwiddie is having.

More power to him, especially given the fact that, as you wrote, he doesn't seem able to attack the basket freely at this point in his recovery.

[nate33]

I don't get the criticism of Spencer -- it's completely off base.

He's scoring more points per 40 minutes than an average PG
He's scoring at a slightly higher than average TS% than an average PG
He's getting way more defensive boards than an average PG
He's getting more offensive boards than an average PG
He's getting more assists than an average PG
He's turning the ball over less than an average PG
He's fouling less than an average PG
He's getting about as many blocks as an average PG.
His only sub-par stat is steals -- he isn't getting as many steals as an average PG.

If a player is average at all but one of the above, but he is better than average at that one thing -- that guy is an above average player.

Spencer is above average at pretty much everything. Above all, why the critique of his scoring? He's scoring just fine.

Spencer is having an extremely good season. In fact, if Spencer plays out the year at his current level, he'll have had the best season of his career so far.

We are 7-2 at home & 6-6 on the road. That extends to a 52+ win season.

Are you talking about an average PG, or an average starting PG?

I find it extremely hard to believe that Dinwiddie's 24.6 points per 100 possessions rank in 15th among starting PG's. Here's a bunch of primary ball-handling guards who are outscoring Dinwiddie. Whether or not you want to call them "point guards" is up for debate:

Curry
Young
Morant
Doncic
Mitchell
Beal
Lillard
Russell
LaMelo Ball
Brogdan
Fox
SGA
Harden
Cole Anthony
Westbrook
Dejounte Murray
Garland
VanVleet
Derrick Rose
Reggie Jackson
Schroder

That's 21, placing Dinwiddie in the bottom 3rd among starting PG's in scoring.

The list of guys averaging more assists is just as long:
Paul
Young
Harden
Ball
Westbrook
Doncic
Murray
Lowry
Lillard
Rubio
Morant
Garland
Curry
McConnell
Jrue Holiday
Conley
Porter
Russell
Beverley

That's 19, placing Dinwiddie in the bottom 3rd among starting PG's in assists.

Now, maybe Dinwiddie's efficiency and low turnover rate move him above some of those guys, but not many of them. Dinwiddie looks to me to be an average starter, at best, and probably a bit below. I was hoping he would be the 2nd best player on the team and a solidly above-average starter. As I said before, the real issue is his complete unwillingness (or inability) to penetrate. He is not bending the defense at all, which puts the entire burden on Beal.

[pcbothwel]

Im optimistic with Dinwiddie. Despite clearly not being fully recovered/confident in his knee and the refs not calling as many fouls, he is shooting at or near career highs everywhere outside 3 feet, including career highs from 3 on career high volume, and the FT line.

So his defense is clearly better than was advertised (Not good, but not a sieve), he is shooting at career highs, rebounding at career highs, and his AST:TOV ratio is in line with his career highs... I'll take that all day as he settles into his role going into January.

[nate33]

Im optimistic with Dinwiddie. Despite clearly not being fully recovered/confident in his knee and the refs not calling as many fouls, he is shooting at or near career highs everywhere outside 3 feet, including career highs from 3 on career high volume, and the FT line.

So his defense is clearly better than was advertised (Not good, but not a sieve), he is shooting at career highs, rebounding at career highs, and his AST:TOV ratio is in line with his career highs... I'll take that all day as he settles into his role going into January.

I want all of that plus him getting back to 30% of his shots being at the rim. As Kevin Broom points out in that BulletsForever article, Dinwiddie is not creating quality shots for any teammates. This is because he is not bending the defense at all, and particularly not when on the court alongside Beal against the opposition's starters.

He has the 2nd worst net rating among our top 7 in minutes (behind only Kuzma), despite playing 50% of his minutes alongside Harrell. His non-Harrell minutes are dreadful, with a net rating of -7.3.

As I said before, I think the issue is confidence in his knee, or perhaps the knee itself isn't close to 100% (though I doubt he would be playing if it was significantly compromised). You are right that his shooting, rebounding and defense have been better than expected, which gives one hope that he can pull it all together if he gets his explosion back.

[queridiculo]

Now, maybe Dinwiddie's efficiency and low turnover rate move him above some of those guys, but not many of them. Dinwiddie looks to me to be an average starter, at best, and probably a bit below. I was hoping he would be the 2nd best player on the team and a solidly above-average starter. As I said before, the real issue is his complete unwillingness (or inability) to penetrate. He is not bending the defense at all, which puts the entire burden on Beal.

Well, to that I'd say that Dinwiddie not bending the defense has nothing to do with his inability to get to the bucket and everything with how Washington runs its offense with Beal on the floor.

Guards and Forwards that share the floor with Beal are relegated to setting picks and ball watching.

It's primarily middle pick and rolls between Beal and our bigs, staggered screens to get him the ball or dribble hand-offs involving Beal that have him as the primary decision maker.

The two man lineup data featuring Beal is not very kind to our high minute units featuring any of our starters alongside him.

Washington's offense is too predictable and it's hurting the team because for all the focus on setting Beal up to score Washington isn't particularly effective getting him going.

[nate33]

Now, maybe Dinwiddie's efficiency and low turnover rate move him above some of those guys, but not many of them. Dinwiddie looks to me to be an average starter, at best, and probably a bit below. I was hoping he would be the 2nd best player on the team and a solidly above-average starter. As I said before, the real issue is his complete unwillingness (or inability) to penetrate. He is not bending the defense at all, which puts the entire burden on Beal.

Well, to that I'd say that Dinwiddie not bending the defense has nothing to do with his inability to get to the bucket and everything with how Washington runs its offense with Beal on the floor.

Guards and Forwards that share the floor with Beal are relegated to setting picks and ball watching.

It's primarily middle pick and rolls between Beal and our bigs, staggered screens to get him the ball or dribble hand-offs involving Beal that have him as the primary decision maker.

The two man lineup data featuring Beal is not very kind to our high minute units featuring any of our starters alongside him.

Washington's offense is too predictable and it's hurting the team because for all the focus on setting Beal up to score Washington isn't particularly effective getting him going.

Is it Beal or Wes Jr. refusing to allow any offense to run through Dinwiddie? Or is it Dinwiddie being passive? It's hard for us to know from our vantage point.

But it's worth noting that Beal has a substantially positive net rating when he is on the floor with out Dinwiddie (+3.7) yet the two together have a net rating of -2.6. So running the offense through Beal seems to be working to some degree. As Kevin Broom pointed out, when Beal is on the floor, everyone shoots better (presumably because the defensive attention Beal draws).

[queridiculo]

Now, maybe Dinwiddie's efficiency and low turnover rate move him above some of those guys, but not many of them. Dinwiddie looks to me to be an average starter, at best, and probably a bit below. I was hoping he would be the 2nd best player on the team and a solidly above-average starter. As I said before, the real issue is his complete unwillingness (or inability) to penetrate. He is not bending the defense at all, which puts the entire burden on Beal.

Well, to that I'd say that Dinwiddie not bending the defense has nothing to do with his inability to get to the bucket and everything with how Washington runs its offense with Beal on the floor.

Guards and Forwards that share the floor with Beal are relegated to setting picks and ball watching.

It's primarily middle pick and rolls between Beal and our bigs, staggered screens to get him the ball or dribble hand-offs involving Beal that have him as the primary decision maker.

The two man lineup data featuring Beal is not very kind to our high minute units featuring any of our starters alongside him.

Washington's offense is too predictable and it's hurting the team because for all the focus on setting Beal up to score Washington isn't particularly effective getting him going.

Is it Beal or Wes Jr. refusing to allow any offense to run through Dinwiddie? Or is it Dinwiddie being passive? It's hard for us to know from our vantage point.

But it's worth noting that Beal has a substantially positive net rating when he is on the floor with out Dinwiddie (+3.7) yet the two together have a net rating of -2.6. So running the offense through Beal seems to be working to some degree. As Kevin Broom pointed out, when Beal is on the floor, everyone shoots better (presumably because the defensive attention Beal draws).

This one is adjusted for >= 15 minutes played.

It doesn't really good for Beal, the only two 5 man lineups with a positive net rating account for a total of 42 minutes played.

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612764&CF=GROUP_NAME*E*Beal:GROUP_NAME*NE*Dinwiddie:MIN*GE*15:GROUP_NAME*E*&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1

The 5 man lineups featuring Dinwiddie look even worse though.

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612764&CF=GROUP_NAME*NE*Beal:GROUP_NAME*E*Dinwiddie:MIN*GE*15:GROUP_NAME*E*&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1

[nate33]

Sample sizes of 5-man lineups are too small to be meaningful. For example, take that same Beal query, drop the 15 min criteria, and sort by minutes, and you will see a whole bunch of substantially positive 5-man lineups of 14, 13, 12 and 10 minutes.

[DCZards]

Spencer's shot attempts, especially 2pt shots, are down from his last full season (2019-20). And, while his 3pt FG% has gone up, his 2pt FG% is down from .485 in 2019-20 to .454 this season. His scoring is also down from that season—16 pts two seasons ago to 12.2. Maybe most significantly, his per game FT attempts are down from 7 in his last full season to just under 3 this season.

Of course, some of this can be attributed to playing in a new system and next to Beal, as well as (possibly) to the fact that he's still recovering from a serious knee injury. Hopefully, we'll see improvements in chemistry with Beal and health as the season goes on.

But I'm much more concerned about Din's style of play than I am with any #s. When he attacks the basket, which is the bread-and-butter of his offensive game, imo, he gets easier shots for himself and creates more opportunities for teammates. That's the Dinwiddie I want to see because I believe that's when he's really at his best.

Right now, either because of the system he's playing in, a lack of quickness or concerns about his knee (or maybe all three), Spencer isn't nearly as aggressive on the offensive end as he has been in the past—and needs to be in order to help this team win.

[Halcyon]

I assume he's not fully healthy and back to 100% since he's not playing back to backs. We should be patient this year with him, I hope he'll be more of himself later in the season.

[payitforward]

...As I said before, the real issue is his complete unwillingness (or inability) to penetrate. He is not bending the defense at all, which puts the entire burden on Beal.

This seems like a perfectly fair point, nate. As it did when Zards made it.

It would be better, we would be better, if he attacked the paint. If he bent the defense.

But we are 13-8. You didn't expect that, & I didn't expect it either. Moreover, whatever success we did expect was certainly based on an idea of Brad playing a whole lot better than he has played!

Our good record mostly reflects the play of Harrell, Dinwiddie, KCP & Gafford. In Dinwiddie's case, tho not attacking the paint, he is doing other things, & how good a player is -- how much he helps youy win -- depends on all the things he does. Dinwiddie's second on the team in shots taken per 40 minutes. He's shooting 37% on 3's while taking a ton of them (second only to Bertans). He's shooting a stellar FT%. He's rebounding extremely well. He's not turning the ball over.

Here's hoping he is able to -- & does -- begin attacking the paint effectively soon!