2024 Draft Thread - Part III

[AFM]

15 out of the top 32 guards in the league last season according to EPMs EW (Estimated wins) statistic are 6-3 or less. This should kill the arguments against Sheppard & Dillingham due to size.

Are you saying being good at basketball is more important than an inch or two?


Regardless, looks like it'll be an interesting draft night. I'll be out of town which I'm kind of annoyed about but I'll be checking this thread religiously.

If your girl told you this, don't believe her. She's hiding something!!!

Walked right into that one

[AWIZZINGBULLET]

Read on Twitter

Again, I think this pick is going to be a Euro who is 2-3 years away. HOWEVER, if the Spurs trade up to take Saar at No. 1, I'm ok with Sheppard going 2 to us.

I don't think there is another Steph Curry amongst us. But he might be a poor man's Steph and I'd take that. Steph Curry was too slow, too small and there were all sorts of defensive issues. Some of them came true, but he was so f-ing good offensively and worked his ass off to get bigger, quicker and work on that handle. Shep has a ways to go to be in that conversation, but he's already a better athlete.

And what makes you think Sheppard would be the guy????

I'm taking Zacharrie Risacher at 2. I'd only be okay with Sheppard being the guy if the Wiz traded out of 2 and Sheppard was still sitting there somewhere in the top 5.

[AWIZZINGBULLET]

Updated Tiers (subject to change)

No Tiers 1 or 2:
Tier 3 - Solid starters with all-star potential
3.1 FC Alex Sarr
3.2 PG Rob Dillingham
3.3 SF Ron Holland

Tier 4 - Solid role players with potential to start
4.4 SG Reed Sheppard
4.5 PG Isaiah Collier
4.6 CE Zach Edey
4.7 CE Donovan Clingan

Tier 5 - Rotation guys with potential to be solid role players
5.8 PF Matas Buzelis
5.9 SF Zaccharie Risacher
5.10 FC Daron Holmes II
5.11 SG Jaylon Tyson
5.12 CE Kel'el Ware
5.13 GF Nikola Djurisic
5.14 PG Jared McCain
5 15 PG Nikola Topic
5.16 SF Cody Williams
5.17 SG Pacome Dadiet
5.18 PG Carlton Carrington
5.19 SF Johnny Furphy
5.20 SG Stephon Castle

Tier 6 - End of bench types with potential to be rotation level players
6.21 PF Tristan Da Silva
6.22 SF Dalton Knecht
6.23 PG Tyler Kolek
6.24 PF Kyle Filipowski
6.25 CE Yves Missi
6.26 SG Terrence Shannon Jr
6.27 SG Ja'Kobe Walter
6.28 PF Tidjane Salaun
6.29 SG Devin Carter
6.30 SG Trentyn Flowers
6.31 GF Kyshawn George

Tier 7 - Developmental types/Two-way contract types
7.32 SF Dillon Jones
7.33 PG Ajay Mitchell
7.34 PF Tyler Smith
7.35 PF Bobi Klintman
7.36 SG Cameron Christie
7.37 PG K.J. Simpson
7.38 SF Baylor Scheierman
7.39 GF Melvin Ajinca
7.40 GF Jaylen Wells
7.41 SF Jalen Bridges
7.42 SF Ryan Dunn
7.43 SG Trey Alexander
7.44 SF Isaiah Crawford
7.45 PF Armel Traore
7.46 PG Juan Nunez
7.47 GF Justin Edwards
7.48 SG A.J. Johnson
7.49 SF Kevin McCullar Jr
7.50 PF Keshad Johnson
7.51 SG Antonio Reeves
7.52 PG Tristen Newton
7.53 PF Enrique Freeman
7.54 CE Adem Bona

Tier 8 - Exhibit 10s/G-League
TBD

You're nuts with your take on Zaccharie Risacher, he should easily be in Tier 3.

Stephon Castle and Jaylon Tyson should be in Tier 4.

Ja'Kobe Walter should be in Tier 5 (could sneak into Tier 4) along with Tidjane Salaun.

[AWIZZINGBULLET]

Oh, and Donovan Clingan has bust written all over him. He should actually be in Tier 5, where you placed Risacher.

[80sballboy]

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Again, I think this pick is going to be a Euro who is 2-3 years away. HOWEVER, if the Spurs trade up to take Saar at No. 1, I'm ok with Sheppard going 2 to us.

I don't think there is another Steph Curry amongst us. But he might be a poor man's Steph and I'd take that. Steph Curry was too slow, too small and there were all sorts of defensive issues. Some of them came true, but he was so f-ing good offensively and worked his ass off to get bigger, quicker and work on that handle. Shep has a ways to go to be in that conversation, but he's already a better athlete.

And what makes you think Sheppard would be the guy????

I'm taking Zacharrie Risacher at 2. I'd only be okay with Sheppard being the guy if the Wiz traded out of 2 and Sheppard was still sitting there somewhere in the top 5.

I don't think he would be their guy. I just said they are taking a Euro, even if Saar isn't there. However, I'd prefer Sheppard. Just changed my opinion the last couple of days. As for No. 2, I'm at the point, where it doesn't matter much between 2, 4 or 6. Yes, I'd take an athletic sharpshooting 6-2.5 guard at No. 2 instead of an average athlete who is 6-9, considering we already have eight forwards.

[AWIZZINGBULLET]

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Again, I think this pick is going to be a Euro who is 2-3 years away. HOWEVER, if the Spurs trade up to take Saar at No. 1, I'm ok with Sheppard going 2 to us.

I don't think there is another Steph Curry amongst us. But he might be a poor man's Steph and I'd take that. Steph Curry was too slow, too small and there were all sorts of defensive issues. Some of them came true, but he was so f-ing good offensively and worked his ass off to get bigger, quicker and work on that handle. Shep has a ways to go to be in that conversation, but he's already a better athlete.

And what makes you think Sheppard would be the guy????

I'm taking Zacharrie Risacher at 2. I'd only be okay with Sheppard being the guy if the Wiz traded out of 2 and Sheppard was still sitting there somewhere in the top 5.

I don't think he would be their guy. I just said they are taking a Euro, even if Saar isn't there. However, I'd prefer Sheppard. Just changed my opinion the last couple of days. As for No. 2, I'm at the point, where it doesn't matter much between 2, 4 or 6. Yes, I'd take an athletic sharpshooting 6-2.5 guard at No. 2 instead of an average athlete who is 6-9, considering we already have eight forwards.

Did you read something that has you convinced that they'd take a European player if Sarr wasn't available at 2?

No European player from what I can tell looks worthy of the 2nd pick; Topic and Buzelis are the only two that had any buzz around them---at one point or another---going that high.

[DCZards]

Dat, a player not on your list who I believe will have a solid NBA career is UNC’s Harrison Ingram. Good size, great defender, high motor, decent playmaker, improving 3 ball. He's also one of the best rebounding forwards in the draft. Was 4th overall in the ACC. I expect Ingram to be drafted early in the second round.

I know you like Dillingham and there’s a lot about him that I like as well. But I wouldn’t draft him in the top 5…just too small and a liability on D to go in the top half of the lottery, imo.

Carrington is a sleeper. I think he’ll go in the lottery…could even turn out to be as good or better than Dilly and Holland.

I think you have McCullar ranked too low.

As you know, I totally disagree with you about Castle. He's easily a top 10 player in this draft.

[payitforward]

Updated Tiers (subject to change)

No Tiers 1 or 2:
Tier 3 - Solid starters with all-star potential
3.1 FC Alex Sarr
3.2 PG Rob Dillingham
3.3 SF Ron Holland

Tier 4 - Solid role players with potential to start
4.4 SG Reed Sheppard
4.5 PG Isaiah Collier
4.6 CE Zach Edey
4.7 CE Donovan Clingan...

Thus, if we were able to trade 2 & 26 to Portland for no more than 7 & 14, we should jump at the chance. We'd be virtually certain to get one of your Tier 3 guys (either Dillingham or Holland) plus one of your Tier 4 guys (either Collier or Edey).

After all, using our own picks, it looks like we'd get a Tier 3 guy & a Tier 6 guy -- maybe one of...

...Tier 6
...
6.24 Kyle Filipowski
6.25 CE Yves Missi
6.26 SG Terrence Shannon Jr
6.27 SG Ja'Kobe Walter
6.28 PF Tidjane Salaun...

Can't be sure, obviously, that the trade would be available. But, if so, it looks like e.g. Sarr & Shannon vs. say Dillingham & Edey.

is that a trade you'd make? Or am I misunderstanding the meaning of your tiers?

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Hoop Intellect is on Game Theory !!

Watch on YouTube

[nate33]

Seeing some nonsense on basketball twitter of the Spurs trading to number 1 and recreating the Duncan/Robinson twin towers with Wemby and Sarr. Ooof, that would hurt after several days of buying into the narrative of us somehow lucking into Sarr falling to us. Not only does Sarr not get to us, but it also removes the team most motivated to trade for Rissacher from any potential trade at that point. SoWiz is not dead yet!!

Ignore it.

There's no chance the Spurs trade up for Sarr. It makes no sense at all.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Vecenie has Carrington up to 8 on his latest mock...

Watch on YouTube

[doclinkin]

Tiers schmears.

I want Edey. Sheppard. Castle. Ariel Hukporti. Trade the #2 + Kuz to get me that.

We get huge, smart, tough. Stock up with winners who understand the game, play hard, and are easy to root for. Each bringing a dimension we don't have in the players already in that position. Some playable next to the guys we already have; some as upgrades. Allowing versatile line ups for future wins as well as creative tanking for the next draft cycle.

Play Castle heavy minutes at PG to test him out and give him experience while he works on his shot/playmaking in game. Accept the losses and growing pains while earning lotto tickets. Likewise play heavy minutes with Sheppard next to Poole, to stay small and collect losses. But occasionally flash the potential of playing huge and heavy with offensive rebounding and possession control to counter teams that rely on outside shooting.

Envision the Castle/Sheppard/Edey screen/pick & roll game. Unstoppable interior scoring. Connector utility guard. Opportunistic shooter. Yes we still need an all-star scorer in the next draft. But we have ideal secondary/tertiary options in place.

On defense: smother the ballhandlers with Castle & Deni to allow Edey time to clog the lane. Rotate in an improved Bilal to constantly frustrate with length and versatility 1-4. Funnel all towards the giant in the middle and force midrange misses. Jump the passing lanes with Sheppard when they are forced to pass.

Most of all I want a team that is smart, understands the game, raises their game when the competition gets tougher. Build the team that will ideally support the star(s) when we land him/them in future years. If this draft lacks an upside superhero, then maybe this is the draft to pick the absolute best role-players we can get, to make his job easier when we finally land that guy.

[gambitx777]

As much as I LOVE reed Sheppard. If we take Sar it's not the end of the world and I can eventually get over it because at the very leave he's solid and a decent prospect.

I believe in Sheppard and if we could get sat and Sheppard by God!

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using RealGM mobile app

[Dat2U]

Updated Tiers (subject to change)

No Tiers 1 or 2:
Tier 3 - Solid starters with all-star potential
3.1 FC Alex Sarr
3.2 PG Rob Dillingham
3.3 SF Ron Holland

Tier 4 - Solid role players with potential to start
4.4 SG Reed Sheppard
4.5 PG Isaiah Collier
4.6 CE Zach Edey
4.7 CE Donovan Clingan...

Thus, if we were able to trade 2 & 26 to Portland for no more than 7 & 14, we should jump at the chance. We'd be virtually certain to get one of your Tier 3 guys (either Dillingham or Holland) plus one of your Tier 4 guys (either Collier or Edey).

After all, using our own picks, it looks like we'd get a Tier 3 guy & a Tier 6 guy -- maybe one of...

...Tier 6
...
6.24 Kyle Filipowski
6.25 CE Yves Missi
6.26 SG Terrence Shannon Jr
6.27 SG Ja'Kobe Walter
6.28 PF Tidjane Salaun...

Can't be sure, obviously, that the trade would be available. But, if so, it looks like e.g. Sarr & Shannon vs. say Dillingham & Edey.

is that a trade you'd make? Or am I misunderstanding the meaning of your tiers?

Yes I would but I'm not sure teams are really offering value to move up this year. I've hears no mention of teams contacting the Wizards. I tend to think we are stuck at 2 unless we're willing to take a couple of 2nds or a heavily protected 1st to move down.

[Dat2U]

Dat, a player not on your list who I believe will have a solid NBA career is UNC’s Harrison Ingram. Good size, great defender, high motor, decent playmaker, improving 3 ball. He's also one of the best rebounding forwards in the draft. Was 4th overall in the ACC. I expect Ingram to be drafted early in the second round.

I know you like Dillingham and there’s a lot about him that I like as well. But I wouldn’t draft him in the top 5…just too small and a liability on D to go in the top half of the lottery, imo.

Carrington is a sleeper. I think he’ll go in the lottery…could even turn out to be as good or better than Dilly and Holland.

I think you have McCullar ranked too low.

As you know, I totally disagree with you about Castle. He's easily a top 10 player in this draft.

Most PGs are liabilities on defense. It's the nature of the position. I'd worry much more about the defense of a C before I would a guard. Trae Young's defense isn't the reason Atlanta struggles. In fact they made the conference finals with him. It's the roster around him. Darius Garland was an all-star until Donovan Mitchell came in and regulated him to a reduced role. In a draft with alot of questionable outcomes... I'll go with the guy that clearly has the best shot to be an efficient 20 ppg scorer in this league.

I like Carrington but he puts little pressure on the rim and struggles when he does get there and he's not the shooter McCain is.

I don't buy McCullar's shooting. Same with Harrison Ingram although I could see either getting some minutes because of their defense.

[Dat2U]

Oh, and Donovan Clingan has bust written all over him. He should actually be in Tier 5, where you placed Risacher.

Bust relative to position. The higher he goes, the more I'd be concerned. Mid-to-late lottery, an Jakob Poeltl or Isaiah Hartenstein type isn't the worst pick. Bottom 4th tier atm.

[Dat2U]

Updated Tiers (subject to change)

TBD

You're nuts with your take on Zaccharie Risacher, he should easily be in Tier 3.

Stephon Castle and Jaylon Tyson should be in Tier 4.

Ja'Kobe Walter should be in Tier 5 (could sneak into Tier 4) along with Tidjane Salaun.

I'm debating dropping Risacher below Cody Williams who I haven't loved all draft cycle lol.

Tyson is definitely a riser for me. He's a bucket.

Walter - I don't love guards with limited handle.

Castle - everytime I go back to see if I missed something, I end up dropping him further down my board lol so I will stop. Okoro-ish IMO.

[AWIZZINGBULLET]

Oh, and Donovan Clingan has bust written all over him. He should actually be in Tier 5, where you placed Risacher.

Bust relative to position. The higher he goes, the more I'd be concerned. Mid-to-late lottery, an Jakob Poeltl or Isaiah Hartenstein type isn't the worst pick. Bottom 4th tier atm.

Obviously relative to draft position, if we're being real, guy is being talked about like he might go Top 5.

How concerned could you really be if you're placing him in a higher tier than the prospect projected to be selected 1st overall?

You must feel a lot better than Clingan than you're letting on here, and from the sound of things multiple GMs do too.

[DCZards]

Most PGs are liabilities on defense. It's the nature of the position. I'd worry much more about the defense of a C before I would a guard. Trae Young's defense isn't the reason Atlanta struggles. In fact they made the conference finals with him. It's the roster around him.

Trae Young is a nice player. No doubt about that. But if you’re ATL aren’t you sorry you didn’t keep Luka, and passed on SGA and Mikal Bridges? Players with the size, length and skill sets that are a real problem for opponents.

Any team that drafts Dilly in the top 5 is going to have similar regrets 2-3 years from now.

(BTW, I think Dillingham is going to have a very good NBA career…as I’ve repeatedly said. But his impact will be capped by his size.)

[nate33]

15 out of the top 32 guards in the league last season according to EPMs EW (Estimated wins) statistic are 6-3 or less. This should kill the arguments against Sheppard & Dillingham due to size.

I think weight is more important than height once you get down to guys who are sub 6'-3". Let's face it, none of these guys are blocking anyone's shots, so what matters more is their ability to hold their position and absorb contact to help force a miss.

Here is a list of all the guards in this league who played 40+ games and averaged 10+ points and 4+ assists, arranged in order of weight. Unfortunately, weight listings are notoriously inaccurate. I provided their measured weight from the Combine when available. I put this list together to see if my theory passes the smell test. Does weight provide a better indicator of which little guy can hold up defensively?



A couple of notes.

• Trae Young's current listed weight is 14 pounds lighter than his rookie weight at the combine. I'm guessing the combine weight is wrong.
• Schroeder has a 6'8" wingspan which presumably helps him defend even at such a light weight.
• There is no chance Conley is still 175. He is way bulkier than his rookie weight.
• It seems like a lot of guys added 5 to 10 pounds since the combine, that's probably a good bet to assume for almost everyone. The ones that show no change probably just haven't updated their weight.
• I don't buy that Darius Garland is 192. I wish he was measured at the Combine

From this list, I'd say Trae Young is a true outlier. Nobody in the NBA is anywhere near as light as him. He also happens to be perhaps the worst defender in the league.

It looks like most of these guys eventually get to 190 pounds, at which point they can at least somewhat hold up in a switch.

I think this is relevant because Reed Sheppard weighed 181 at the Combine and will probably get to 190 given his frame. Rob Dillingham, on the other hand, weighed just 164 and does not have a frame to add weight. I think he really is a Trae Young tier defensive liability.