Grade the '25 Trade Deadline Moves

[The Consiglieri]

I give A+ for effort but a B for the actual trades. Value wise we got the short end of the stick every time but all the deals make sense for a team in our position. It will be nice to have an extra pick to scout in ‘25 and ‘26

I think the Smart trade was actually a pretty strong deal that favored us. We only took on one year of salary, salary we were going to have to pay to get up the cap minimum anyhow. And it's not like Smart is an utterly useless player. He has slipped a bit and is no longer worth his salary, but he still belongs in the league.

The JV deal was probably about right. We weren't fleeced but we didn't fleece them either. It's hard to expect much more than two SRP's for a guy that probably is only a regular season minutes eater. I don't think JV is the kind of guy who stays on the floor in the second round of the playoffs.

The Jared Butler plus 4 SRP's for the last pick in the 2026 draft was probably a poor trade in the abstract. But with the overwhelming number of SRP's we had, it was critical to try and consolidate them. I wish we could have done better, but still, 1 late FRP is still more useful to us than a bunch of SRP's on a roster already overcrowded with youngsters trying to get a shot.

I was a little underwhelmed by the Kuzma deal. I don't have a lot of faith that the pick swap is going to pan out, so we mostly traded a SRP to land a disappointing 2024 FRP who couldn't get on the floor and some salary savings. I get the argument that dumping a disgruntled Kuzma was addition by subtraction, but in the abstract, I think a motivated Kuzma is still more useful than a broken down Middleton. I suppose there's an argument that this trade isn't over yet. If we can flip Middleton at the Trade Deadline for a contract that expires in 2027 and more pick capital, that would have to get factored into this trade analysis.

Trying to figure out the nuance on your Kuzma take because you were against trading Kuzma last year at the deadline, arguing essentially to be patient and we could get more. But it does sound like once the Deni trade went down, you definitely would have reversed your take from last February? Or at least it sounds like it, but that may be just because it was difficult to figure out at the time if the rumored 2 firsts were correct, or if it was always just 1 first and a player of little repute.

It's hard to figure out where you stand with it, and the current Kuzma take seems to be more in line w/your original one where you didn't want to flip him in '24 unless you were really excited about the offer, but now a year later, some of us (certainly myself) and others were proven right that it wasn't worth the risk (Frichuela said the same if memory serves) of a bird in the hand considering his age, and injury risk to hold him for another year just because the friendly contract terms was worth dancing w/the risk that he might get hurt, or just suck due to age and kill his value.

I have a hard time where it feels like people are having it both ways, and it feels a bit like that w/Kuzma takes on the board.

People arguing against the trade last year because the offer wasn't enough, now also against it a year later when the offer is about 30% to 50% less of what it originally was.

It's a weird take to me, but maybe its just complicated by the fact that terms were unclear in Feb '24, and only a few of us saw the Deni trade coming (I did, just not that soon and for that little (to me)), and many in retrospect would have taken the Kuzma offer if it meant we wouldn't have done the Deni trade (I don't think it would have meant that, i think we just would have traded Kuzma AND Deni in a four month stretch).

So complicated.

I will say, I think your current arguments on the particulars are right in a general sense, I agree w/them anyway, but I also think that it was actually an excellent return (a '24 first in AJ Johnson+) considering how thoroughly Kuzma torpedoed his value October-January to the extent that most people believed we'd be lucky to get a couple of late 2's.

[payitforward]

Recent draft picks are like buying cars. They depreciate soon after you drive them off the parking lot. AJ Johnson may have not yet had his fair shot, but chances are, if he was really a true late-round gem, he'd have found his way into the lineup by now. The fact that he hasn't suggests he is a bust or merely a typical late pick who grinds his way into a rotation and ultimately becomes a rotation player or journeyman, but not a quality starter.

We gave up a fairly high SRP (probably low 40's). I'd say the "unknown" of a half-decent upcoming SRP is about equal in value to a recent late FRP who hasn't already demonstrated a spark of being special.

The Zards FO evaluated and met with AJ Johnson during the pre-draft process. I’m pretty sure they liked what they heard and saw.

I’m taking their inside info and expertise over your approach of deciding what a 20 yr old is or is not before he’s even gotten an opportunity to show what he can do.

I'm just saying, a late first round pick from a recent draft who hasn't earned playing time is roughly equal in value to the unknown of a future mid-second round pick that at least hasn't demonstrated that he doesn't deserve minutes right away.

That doesn't mean AJ can't pan out to be a good player. It means that AJ probably isn't any more likely to pan out to be a good player as a the #42 pick in the 2025 draft would be.

Yup, I understood what you meant; I just disagree w/ that analysis.

But... no big deal! Especially because, in an individual instance, there's no real way to apply the methodology.

To take a similar case in the opposite direction: Kawhi was taken at 15 & became a superstar. But, that fact has no impact, not even minute, on the likelihood that Kobe Bufkin, taken at 15 in '23, will become a superstar.

Intellectually, this has nothing to do with basketball in particular, obviously.

(I know you said that an expanding business is keeping you extra-occupied these days -- & in any case, you may have read Freakonomics &/or Rationality (by Steven Pinker) or Nate Silver's terrific book, Fooled by Randomness.

If not, I bet you would enjoy any or all of them. If you've got the time these days.

Oh H#ll... to dive in deeper waters but still have a blast swimming, try The Simple and Infinite Joy of Mathematical Statistics by J.N. Corcoran....

[nate33]

Trying to figure out the nuance on your Kuzma take because you were against trading Kuzma last year at the deadline, arguing essentially to be patient and we could get more. But it does sound like once the Deni trade went down, you definitely would have reversed your take from last February? Or at least it sounds like it, but that may be just because it was difficult to figure out at the time if the rumored 2 firsts were correct, or if it was always just 1 first and a player of little repute.

If I recall correctly, I was underwhelmed by the rumored Dallas proposal that only involved 1 FRP. It the proposal was indeed 2 FRP's, I would have jumped on it.

As it turns out, we basically did end up trading him for one late FRP, which is again why I'm underwhelmed. But having said that, it is true that Kuzma having a much worse season this year has clearly diminished one's reasonable expectations for a return. Perhaps in that light, this deal was totally satisfactory. We basically got the same deal as the weaker of the rumored Dallas deals (with only one FRP) but we got it AFTER Kuzma stank up the joint this year.

Also, Middleton being the "filler" in the deal is better than the longer term contract of Grant Williams.

[payitforward]

There you go!

Meanwhile, I wish Kuz the best of luck.
Above all, I hope he channels his obvious smarts into being a more efficient, less cocky player.

[Kanyewest]

Last piece:

The main reason that the 2024 FRP (AJ Johnson) couldn't get on the floor is that he was drafted by a veteran-led Milwaukee team focused on competing for an NBA championship and not on developing a skinny, raw 20 year old.

And by whose standards has Johnson been disappointing? Fans on the Bucks board seem to recognize his potential and are upset that he was included in the trade.

Recent draft picks are like buying cars. They depreciate soon after you drive them off the parking lot. AJ Johnson may have not yet had his fair shot, but chances are, if he was really a true late-round gem, he'd have found his way into the lineup by now. The fact that he hasn't suggests he is a bust or merely a typical late pick who grinds his way into a rotation and ultimately becomes a rotation player or journeyman, but not a quality starter.

No idea how good AJJ might become. However Doc Rivers is not noted for developing rookies. He traded a highly productive SGA in his rookie year because he trusts veterans more than youth. He has stated that it is less the job of the HC to develop young players and more for the culture of the team to develop them. That's pretty much the opposite attitude of our front office. I expect Johnson has a better chance to develop here than he ever would have in Milwaukee. Or even Australia. Kid does have athleticism. Good length. Has shown an aggressive mindset. Scouts like his upside. He needs a jumper and 15 lbs of muscle. Our front office scouted him and liked him, made his acquisition a lynchpin of the deal. Drafted one player before the Kyshawn pick. Were they targeting him with that Gafford pick? If so they made sure to get him. Retroactively adding another 1st round pick to their 2024 haul.

To me I look at it like we traded out our short term try-out of young prospect PBJ for young prospect AJJ. And are betting on our ability to coach him up. Exactly what we should be doing with the back end of our bench: hold extended tryouts for talent. Ask our coaches and G league staff to train them up. See if they can grow into useful players. So far our G squad seems to be pretty good at bringing up guards. And we cycle in and out guys in that 15th spot in ways that grow them into assets.

I'm not sure if rhé Clippers front office(which included Michael Winger) wanted to trade SGA in a vacuum. It seemed as if Kawhi was not going to sign with the Clippers if they didn't make that trade. Funny that Dawkins and Winger were working for their respective teams in that transaction.

[Kanyewest]

Trying to figure out the nuance on your Kuzma take because you were against trading Kuzma last year at the deadline, arguing essentially to be patient and we could get more. But it does sound like once the Deni trade went down, you definitely would have reversed your take from last February? Or at least it sounds like it, but that may be just because it was difficult to figure out at the time if the rumored 2 firsts were correct, or if it was always just 1 first and a player of little repute.

If I recall correctly, I was underwhelmed by the rumored Dallas proposal that only involved 1 FRP. It the proposal was indeed 2 FRP's, I would have jumped on it.

As it turns out, we basically did end up trading him for one late FRP, which is again why I'm underwhelmed. But having said that, it is true that Kuzma having a much worse season this year has clearly diminished one's reasonable expectations for a return. Perhaps in that light, this deal was totally satisfactory. We basically got the same deal as the weaker of the rumored Dallas deals (with only one FRP) but we got it AFTER Kuzma stank up the joint this year.

Also, Middleton being the "filler" in the deal is better than the longer term contract of Grant Williams.

From my research, Stein only said one pick was offered as well as the Athletic story Stein appears to be most trust worthy on this given his ties to the mavs(although not infallible) . Bontemps/Windhorst/McMahon from the hoop collective suggest 2. Based on the conflicting reports, I believe that Kuzma and Gafford would have landed 2 first round picks combined-- I don't believe Kuzma would have commanded 2 picks by himself (although I could be mistaken) . I also think that Washington /Dallas needed Kuzma to waive his trade kicker ( which is what Anthony Davis did in the Luka trade) which may have been why Winger approached Kuzma with the offer in the first place. It is also possible that Kuzma simply wanted out and holding on to him could have lowered his value.

[DCZards]

From my research, Stein only said one pick was offered as well as the Athletic story Stein appears to be most trust worthy on this given his ties to the mavs(although not infallible)

This makes sense. I’ve always found it hard to believe that Dallas would offer 2 FRPs for Kuz.

[The Consiglieri]

Trying to figure out the nuance on your Kuzma take because you were against trading Kuzma last year at the deadline, arguing essentially to be patient and we could get more. But it does sound like once the Deni trade went down, you definitely would have reversed your take from last February? Or at least it sounds like it, but that may be just because it was difficult to figure out at the time if the rumored 2 firsts were correct, or if it was always just 1 first and a player of little repute.

If I recall correctly, I was underwhelmed by the rumored Dallas proposal that only involved 1 FRP. It the proposal was indeed 2 FRP's, I would have jumped on it.

As it turns out, we basically did end up trading him for one late FRP, which is again why I'm underwhelmed. But having said that, it is true that Kuzma having a much worse season this year has clearly diminished one's reasonable expectations for a return. Perhaps in that light, this deal was totally satisfactory. We basically got the same deal as the weaker of the rumored Dallas deals (with only one FRP) but we got it AFTER Kuzma stank up the joint this year.

Also, Middleton being the "filler" in the deal is better than the longer term contract of Grant Williams.

I've always been exceptionally confused by the stories about the trade, and tend to find it unlikely that the offer was identical in value to the Gafford deal or something of that sort? I've seen stories that referenced 2 first rounders, and stories that referenced 1, and there is always the possibility that there's a kind of lazy reporting going on where people simply used unreliable tweets to support "2 firsts" and/or "1" first offers in their coverage of the trade.

I don't think it matters much. What's done is done and I take solace in the reality that we got a lot more than what was rumored just a few weeks ago (1 or 2 seconds). Getting a player with Johnson's upside, and a pick swap with a team very likely to either be imploding, or forced to trade away their best asset before that pick swap is usable is intriguing, and it's always possible we might be able to flip Middleton in a deadline move (not a summer one from what I can tell) which would increase the value of the pay out.

I would have traded him in '24, for 2 firsts, if it was just 1, yeah, I would likely have held out as well, I'd need more than a solitary first in a notoriously underwhelming draft class to trade Kuzma when he was carrying value. So its a hard one to figure. Last winter I was pro-trade based on the 2 pick report, if it wasn't 2, it becomes more complicated and hinges on whatever extras might have been involved.

As is, I'm moderately happy with the return, as I think it's basically the same as the weaker of the '24 rumors, but with some extra's tossed in that may add moderate or substantial or zero value at all.

[The Consiglieri]

From my research, Stein only said one pick was offered as well as the Athletic story Stein appears to be most trust worthy on this given his ties to the mavs(although not infallible)

This makes sense. I’ve always found it hard to believe that Dallas would offer 2 FRPs for Kuz.

But 1 alone also doesn't really make sense which is why I always kind of bought the rumored 2, I just kind of wonder if it was different than both reports. What if it was Gafford+Kuzma, or Kuzma, for a first and a highly protected much later first, or multiple seconds? No idea.

All in all, what I liked most about the deadline was the consolidation moves to add ammo to back to back classes that have strong grades (for now), and adding goodies down the line from teams that I view as sketchily run and moderately likely to convey some genuine value down the line when if our build works out, we'll no longer be able to climb into the lottery w/o pick swaps of that sort (if the build actually works) and we did it without trading anything of value on the order of Deni (players that are young and could be building block assets) save for Johnny Davis, who at this point is a running joke.

It feels like an ideal winter deadline for a team that had very little to offer other than crappy vets, and the ability to take on salary. So that they squeezed that much juice out of the deadline was a win to me across the board, though it is, probably, chairs on the titanic kind of moves, only liable to add complimentary, 3rd or 4th tier talent to the roster, but who knows, maybe we can get lucky?

[spaceman_E]

That might be true in a vacuum but go read the Bucks board. They are really upset about losing this guy.

and Wiz fans cried when they dumped Rui. It's easy to get attached when you have 0 young players of interest over a 7 year period

[doclinkin]

And now we have five over a 2 year period.
Seven to nine next year.
Nine to eleven the year after that...

[TGW]

Jared Butler aka "Too Old" has 16,4,4 with no turns tonight.

He's going to go in another long line of good players that the Gizzards traded for nothing.

[payitforward]

We've got 9 young players of interest right now: Carrington, Champagnie, Coulibaly, George, Johnson, Jones, Martin, Sarr, & Vukcevic.

[payitforward]

Jared Butler aka "Too Old" has 16,4,4 with no turns tonight.

He's going to go in another long line of good players that the Gizzards traded for nothing.

Well, I think it's 15, but still he's having a really good night. & that's on 10 shots & 1 FTA -- in only 16 minutes. Terrific.

I could give you a different take on the trade, but you're not really interested in anyone's POV but your own, right?

[WallToWall]

Middleton has trade value. We could flip him for a low 1st or at least a 2nd, or use to move up in this upcoming draft.

No, we can't. Middleton does not have trade value. The guy has played in just 111 of his last 216 regular season games (and started in only 81 of them). He is owed $29M next year. Nobody is trading a FRP for that.

At best, he has value as an expiring contract if someone wants to unload a bad 2-year contract for Middleton's bad 1-year contract. But these days, those kinds of trades are fairly hard. GMs are better now, so not many teams are so capped out that they are willing to give up picks to save money. Maybe a team like Boston trades Jrue and picks for him, though we would have to take on 2 extra years of Jrue's salary.

I think we tend to undervalue our older players. Did we think Val would get us two 2nds? Consensus (I think) here was one 2nd.

I think Midd has trade value. A team that thinks they're one backup forward away will consider a trade like... 2025 pick in range 6-14 FOR Midd + 2025 Grizzlies pick that we just got + future 2nd rnd picks. That Grizzlies pick will probably be in the 20-25 range.
Or, give him time to heal and get him ready for next season. Trade him by next seasons trade deadline. It would be one year less salary that a trading team would have to pay. We have one more year of taking on bad salary in exchange for picks, and if Midd comes back reasonably healthy for the 2025-26 season, he would be a good trade candidate.If Dawkins can trade Beal, he can trade anyone.
Time will tell.

[nate33]

Jared Butler aka "Too Old" has 16,4,4 with no turns tonight.

He's going to go in another long line of good players that the Gizzards traded for nothing.

The Jared Butler situation was similar to the Gafford situation. He is a good young role player, but he will become an unrestricted free agent before we enter our competitive window. He was destined to depart for nothing via free agency so it made sense to try and turn him into something that still has value to us 3 or 4 years down the road.

[doclinkin]

I think we tend to undervalue our older players. Did we think Val would get us two 2nds? Consensus (I think) here was one 2nd.

No chance the FO would accept only 1 2RP. They shipped a 2nd in sign and trade to land him. He played well for us. They would be happy to hold him for another year if all that was coming back was what they sent out. Even if that has backfired with Tyus, and nearly with Kuz, that is still their modus operandi. They claim undervalued properties then flip them for profit. We got Jared Butler for free. I'm curious what we end up getting from Saddiq Bey eventually.

I think Midd has trade value. A team that thinks they're one backup forward away will consider a trade like... 2025 pick in range 6-14 FOR Midd + 2025 Grizzlies pick that we just got + future 2nd rnd picks. That Grizzlies pick will probably be in the 20-25 range.
Or, give him time to heal and get him ready for next season. Trade him by next seasons trade deadline. It would be one year less salary that a trading team would have to pay. We have one more year of taking on bad salary in exchange for picks, and if Midd comes back reasonably healthy for the 2025-26 season, he would be a good trade candidate.

I think they will test out Middleton for the back half of the season, to see if he can showcase his skills. Maybe he comes out strong and plays with a vengeance. He's got the player option though which is for a sxxt ton of money so no doubt he opts in. Timing wise I don't think that works optimally to trade him on Draft night. I'd bet instead they play him a bit to show he's still got it, but load manage him and work on his rehab more than anything. Especially if he starts winning us the games that Kuz was reliably losing on our behalf. Then they will rest him.

The plan I bet is mostly next year to feature him for the front half of the season, drive up interest, and flip him mid season.

For Jerami Grant, say. Maybe Portland will trade us their swap rights to the 2028 & '30 Bucks picks. That way they can better afford to extend Simons, Scoot, and Sharpe in the 26 & 27 offseasons since all their young guys come due at the same time.

[gambitx777]

We've had nothing but respect able games after the deadline.

Sent from my SM-S926U1 using RealGM mobile app

[GoneShammGone]

We've had nothing but respect able games after the deadline.

Sent from my SM-S926U1 using RealGM mobile app

This fact makes me happy, but I have this annoying voice in the back of my head saying: We started to play better once Alex got hurt.

Its amazing what competent center play will do...

[tontoz]

Jared Butler aka "Too Old" has 16,4,4 with no turns tonight.

He's going to go in another long line of good players that the Gizzards traded for nothing.

The Jared Butler situation was similar to the Gafford situation. He is a good young role player, but he will become an unrestricted free agent before we enter our competitive window. He was destined to depart for nothing via free agency so it made sense to try and turn him into something that still has value to us 3 or 4 years down the road.

Yeah i am happy for Butler. I said long before this trade that his talent is being wasted on a tanking team. We certainly could have used him during the Wall years.