2025 Draft Thread - Part 3

[nate33]

It would also be interesting to look at a number of drafts to determine whether 6 & 27 would have made a better result possible than 8 & 18.

No. What you are suggesting is that 8 + 26 + 27 is better than 6 + 18.

[nate33]

I’m with you regarding hanging on to the 18th pick…or using it to move up in the draft. There are some very appealing players who might still be on the board at 18, like Richardson and Sorber, but might not be there at 26 or 27

If the Zards go with Malauch at 6 I’d love to see them draft Richardson at 18, if he’s available.

OTOH, if they go with Fears or Johnson at 6, Sorber would be a great pick at 18, imo. I think there’s a good chance that Sorber will be as good or better than Maluach.

Yeah, I'm of the same general opinion.

I only differ in that I favor Wolf over Sorber. Sorber is fine, but since he is neither a vertical lob threat nor a 3-point shooter, he might be a bit of a liability on offense. You can live with that at center in the regular season, but those guys get harder to play the later you go into the playoffs. Teams start cheating off those guys to jam up your other actions. Generally speaking, they're rotation players, not full time starters. I like Sorber's floor, but I don't think the ceiling is very high.

I like Love more because of his higher ceiling. Yeah, he has higher bust potential because I'm less certain about how he will hold up defensively, but if he does hold up, he might be a an actual weapon on offense.

Love? Or Wolf?

Danny Wolf has skills similar to those Kevin Love has.

Fruedian slip there. They are rather similar in that they're both floor-bound but with quick feet and they both are good perimeter shooters who don't require a 5-second wind-up.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I like Asa or Sorber at 18.

I like Asa's size and ability to play uptempo, switch between 4 & 5, can play with Sarr and can play the 5 when Sarr sits. More switchable defensively than Sorber, and offensively skilled with shooting upside.. Sorber is the better drop defender, better in the low post, better screener and a better passer. Both are good rebounders, which we BADLY need.

Sorber & Sarr could give us similar action to Chet & Hartenstein.

[payitforward]

Actually, nate, it seems to be beneficial at least as often not. Or am I wrong?

Here's that trade in the drafts from 2010-2024. I asterisked the years where it looks like 8/26/27 would have been at least a little more beneficial than 6/18. But, tell me what you think--

2010
Ekpe Udoh/Bledsoe
Aminu/Poindexter/Crawford

*2011
Vesely/Singleton
Brandon Knight/Jordan Hamilton/Jajuan Johnson

2012
Damian Lillard/Terrence Jones
Terrence Ross/Plumlee/Moultrie

*2013
Nerlens Noel/Shane Larkin
K C-P/Andre Roberson/Rudy Gobert

2014
Marcus Smart/Tyler Ennis
Nick Staukas/PJ Hairston/BJ Bogdanovic

*2015
Willie Cauley-Stein/Sam Dekker
Stanley Johnson/Nikola Milutinov/Larry Nance Jr.

*2016
Buddy Hield/Guerschon Yabusele
Marquis Chriss/Furkan Korkmaz/Pascal Siakam

2017
Jonathan Isaac/TJ Leaf
Frank Ntilikina/Caleb Swanigan/Kyle Kuzma

*2018
Mo Bamba/Lonnie Walker Jr.
Colin Sexton/Landry Shamet/Robert Williams

2019
Jarrett Culver/Goga Bitadze
Jaxson Hayes/Dylan Windler/Mfondu Kabangele

*2020
Onyeka Okongwu/Josh Green
Obi Toppin/Payton Pritchard/Udoka Azubuike

*2021
Josh Giddey/Tre Mann
Franz Wagner/Bones Hyland/Cam Thomas

7-to-5 in favor, though a couple are close. In principle looks like a pretty good trade, no? Am I wrong?

[nate33]

Actually, nate, it seems to be beneficial at least as often not. Or am I wrong?

Here's that trade in the drafts from 2010-2024. I asterisked the years where it looks like 8/26/27 would have been at least a little more beneficial than 6/18. But, tell me what you think--

2010
Ekpe Udoh/Bledsoe
Aminu/Poindexter/Crawford

*2011
Vesely/Singleton
Brandon Knight/Jordan Hamilton/Jajuan Johnson

2012
Damian Lillard/Terrence Jones
Terrence Ross/Plumlee/Moultrie

*2013
Nerlens Noel/Shane Larkin
K C-P/Andre Roberson/Rudy Gobert

2014
Marcus Smart/Tyler Ennis
Nick Staukas/PJ Hairston/BJ Bogdanovic

*2015
Willie Cauley-Stein/Sam Dekker
Stanley Johnson/Nikola Milutinov/Larry Nance Jr.

*2016
Buddy Hield/Guerschon Yabusele
Marquis Chriss/Furkan Korkmaz/Pascal Siakam

2017
Jonathan Isaac/TJ Leaf
Frank Ntilikina/Caleb Swanigan/Kyle Kuzma

*2018
Mo Bamba/Lonnie Walker Jr.
Colin Sexton/Landry Shamet/Robert Williams

2019
Jarrett Culver/Goga Bitadze
Jaxson Hayes/Dylan Windler/Mfondu Kabangele

*2020
Onyeka Okongwu/Josh Green
Obi Toppin/Payton Pritchard/Udoka Azubuike

*2021
Josh Giddey/Tre Mann
Franz Wagner/Bones Hyland/Cam Thomas

7-to-5 in favor, though a couple are close. In principle looks like a pretty good trade, no? Am I wrong?

According to 5-pick moving average from this data, it's about a wash. #6 plus #18 yields a 16.61% chance of an All-NBA player. Whereas #8 + #26 + #27 yields a 16.52% chance at an All-NBA player.

Code: Select all

Pick   Odds   M-Avg 3   M-Avg 5
#1   38.67%      
#2   20.00%   28.45%   
#3   26.67%   20.38%   24.44%
#4   14.47%   21.17%   18.00%
#5   22.37%   14.44%   15.97%
#6    6.49%   12.91%   13.07%
#7    9.86%    9.50%   12.58%
#8   12.16%   11.34%   10.57%
#9   12.00%   12.16%   11.06%
#10  12.33%   11.10%   10.23%
#11   8.96%    9.00%    9.19%
#12   5.71%    7.20%    7.93%
#13   6.94%    6.12%    6.64%
#14   5.71%    6.18%    5.71%
#15   5.88%    5.29%    5.74%
#16   4.29%    5.35%    4.65%
#17   5.88%    3.88%    4.40%
#18   1.47%    3.94%    3.54%
#19   4.48%    2.50%    3.00%
#20   1.56%    2.55%    2.81%
#21   1.61%    2.70%    3.19%
#22   4.92%    3.31%    2.90%
#23   3.39%    3.78%    2.91%
#24   3.03%    2.68%    2.59%
#25   1.61%    1.55%    2.92%
#26   0.00%    2.72%    2.92%
#27   6.56%    3.32%    3.03%
#28   3.39%    4.51%    4.08%
#29   3.57%    5.79%   
#30   6.90%

But the only reason it's close is because the weird tendency for picks 27-30 to perform much better than 19-26. Given that this is data of the percent chance to land an All-NBA player, and All-NBA players are pretty rare, I think that's likely a low sample size fluke. (Either that, or it's because the last few picks are made by very competent organizations.) Assuming that's a fluke and picks 27-30 are roughly equal in value to picks 19-26, then the extra pick would not make up for the disparity between #6 and #8.

[payitforward]

Agree entirely, nate! It's altogether weird how much more productive the last few picks in R1 are! More than you would expect that is. & it's not just an oddly large number of all-NBA players -- stars, iow. Look at guys like Desmond Bane & Payton Pritchard.

Nonetheless, you'd always prefer a higher pick over a lower one -- how not?

You make an interesting point that late picks are made by organizations which (at least at that point) have been well managed. That may well be part of it. One thing I do conclude is that it's might never be a good idea to make fairly generalized statemnts ala the notion that "the talent seems to drop off after the first about 18 guys."

For one thing, we don't know who those first 18 guys are! Not until they're picked. So, in fact, we don't even have a selection set to work with. Above all, even tho it's true that from a mile high perspective, the talent looks more intense at the top of the draft, the truth is that such a "mile high perspective" is itself a fiction. There is simply too much, way too much, variability in what influences success for anyone to come up with a formula that actually tests well for success.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Actually, nate, it seems to be beneficial at least as often not. Or am I wrong?

Here's that trade in the drafts from 2010-2024. I asterisked the years where it looks like 8/26/27 would have been at least a little more beneficial than 6/18. But, tell me what you think--

2010
Ekpe Udoh/Bledsoe
Aminu/Poindexter/Crawford

*2011
Vesely/Singleton
Brandon Knight/Jordan Hamilton/Jajuan Johnson

2012
Damian Lillard/Terrence Jones
Terrence Ross/Plumlee/Moultrie

*2013
Nerlens Noel/Shane Larkin
K C-P/Andre Roberson/Rudy Gobert

2014
Marcus Smart/Tyler Ennis
Nick Staukas/PJ Hairston/BJ Bogdanovic

*2015
Willie Cauley-Stein/Sam Dekker
Stanley Johnson/Nikola Milutinov/Larry Nance Jr.

*2016
Buddy Hield/Guerschon Yabusele
Marquis Chriss/Furkan Korkmaz/Pascal Siakam

2017
Jonathan Isaac/TJ Leaf
Frank Ntilikina/Caleb Swanigan/Kyle Kuzma

*2018
Mo Bamba/Lonnie Walker Jr.
Colin Sexton/Landry Shamet/Robert Williams

2019
Jarrett Culver/Goga Bitadze
Jaxson Hayes/Dylan Windler/Mfondu Kabangele

*2020
Onyeka Okongwu/Josh Green
Obi Toppin/Payton Pritchard/Udoka Azubuike

*2021
Josh Giddey/Tre Mann
Franz Wagner/Bones Hyland/Cam Thomas

7-to-5 in favor, though a couple are close. In principle looks like a pretty good trade, no? Am I wrong?

According to 5-pick moving average from this data, it's about a wash. #6 plus #18 yields a 16.61% chance of an All-NBA player. Whereas #8 + #26 + #27 yields a 16.52% chance at an All-NBA player.

Code: Select all

Pick   Odds   M-Avg 3   M-Avg 5
#1   38.67%      
#2   20.00%   28.45%   
#3   26.67%   20.38%   24.44%
#4   14.47%   21.17%   18.00%
#5   22.37%   14.44%   15.97%
#6    6.49%   12.91%   13.07%
#7    9.86%    9.50%   12.58%
#8   12.16%   11.34%   10.57%
#9   12.00%   12.16%   11.06%
#10  12.33%   11.10%   10.23%
#11   8.96%    9.00%    9.19%
#12   5.71%    7.20%    7.93%
#13   6.94%    6.12%    6.64%
#14   5.71%    6.18%    5.71%
#15   5.88%    5.29%    5.74%
#16   4.29%    5.35%    4.65%
#17   5.88%    3.88%    4.40%
#18   1.47%    3.94%    3.54%
#19   4.48%    2.50%    3.00%
#20   1.56%    2.55%    2.81%
#21   1.61%    2.70%    3.19%
#22   4.92%    3.31%    2.90%
#23   3.39%    3.78%    2.91%
#24   3.03%    2.68%    2.59%
#25   1.61%    1.55%    2.92%
#26   0.00%    2.72%    2.92%
#27   6.56%    3.32%    3.03%
#28   3.39%    4.51%    4.08%
#29   3.57%    5.79%   
#30   6.90%

But the only reason it's close is because the weird tendency for picks 27-30 to perform much better than 19-26. Given that this is data of the percent chance to land an All-NBA player, and All-NBA players are pretty rare, I think that's likely a low sample size fluke. (Either that, or it's because the last few picks are made by very competent organizations.) Assuming that's a fluke and picks 27-30 are roughly equal in value to picks 19-26, then the extra pick would not make up for the disparity between #6 and #8.

It's not weird to me that 27-30 tend to outperform 19-26.

https://www.tankathon.com/mock_draft

Kam Jones and Johni Broome will outperform late lottery picks. If Walter Clayton Jr. or Ryan Kalkbrenner fall in picks 27-30, they will likely outperform players picked 19-26. Players picked 27-30 were likely NCAA starters over 21 years old.

Who was drafted too low?

2016 Draft
=========
#36 Malcolm Brogdon, 23.5 on draft night
https://www.tankathon.com/players/malcolm-brogdon

#27 Pascal Siakam, 22.4 on draft night
https://www.tankathon.com/players/pascal-siakam

#50 George's Niang, 23.0 on draft night
https://www.tankathon.com/players/georges-niang

2017 Draft
=========
#29 Derrick White, 22.9 on draft night
https://www.tankathon.com/players/derrick-white

#30 Josh Hart, 22.3 on draft night
https://www.tankathon.com/players/josh-hart

2018 Draft
=========
#33 Jalen Brunson, 21.8 on draft night
https://www.tankathon.com/players/jalen-brunson

#26 Mo Wagner and #27 Landry Shamet are the same age as Brunson.

2019 Draft
=========
Whew
...

[closg00]

I fully expect them to trade up with Philly though. Hoping it’s for Edgecombe instead of Bailey.

The trade that makes sense to me is Middleton + Kispert + #6 for Paul George + #3.

Then we flip Paul George to Phoenix for Beal (turning George's 3-year contract into Beal's 2-year contract) and then buy out Beal.

We don’t know about any trades in-advance, but who would you select at 3 if we get that pick?

[TheBlackCzar]

I fully expect them to trade up with Philly though. Hoping it’s for Edgecombe instead of Bailey.

The trade that makes sense to me is Middleton + Kispert + #6 for Paul George + #3.

Then we flip Paul George to Phoenix for Beal (turning George's 3-year contract into Beal's 2-year contract) and then buy out Beal.

We don’t know about any trades in-advance, but who would you select at 3 if we get that pick?

Ace Bailey..... Ace needs to work on getting to the rim more, which with him i view it as lacking a strategy more than lacking the physical ability (ie unlike Tre)... He can turn the corner, shoots over people with ease and is still so young.... Athletically he's almost in Bilal's range but comes in already with a much higher skill level as a shooter and ball handler.... He's also going to get bigger simply because of age so he's going to fill out in 3 years and really be a problem....

[tontoz]

I've had Ace at 3 for months. His motor on D and on the boards is something we can count on from the start. His offense will take some development but there is a lot of possible upside.

Strangely he shot much better on contested 3s than on open ones. I expect him to improve a lot on open 3s similar to the way I felt about Bub.

[trast66]

I fully expect them to trade up with Philly though. Hoping it’s for Edgecombe instead of Bailey.

The trade that makes sense to me is Middleton + Kispert + #6 for Paul George + #3.

Then we flip Paul George to Phoenix for Beal (turning George's 3-year contract into Beal's 2-year contract) and then buy out Beal.

Beal is owed roughly $111M, that would be a massive buyout. Phoenix can offer about $80M due to their salary cap situation, maybe we can offer more, I don’t know. Brad would not take $80M. $110M big price to move up 3 spots, even allowing for the $72M savings on Middleton and reminder of Kispert. Ishiba has been bad, but not sure he would take on Paul George contract.

[WizarDynasty]

DQ immediately becomes the best offensive player on this team and its not even close. No way he passes us if our GM is any good.

[9 and 20]

I'm intrigued by Essengue. Based on a couple of highlight videos, he looks right now like an energy, garbage man type. Maybe a little bit of junkyard dog (the old Georgetown fans know). Seems like he's decently athletic, big, and with a good motor. We could use that on defense and on the boards.

If he develops wing skills and shooting though, there's a chance he becomes really good.

Hopefully we get him in a trade down and get more stuff in return, either this year or next year. We'll need more ammo to trade up when we're tagged with the #6 pick again.

I'm also good with Fears or Maluach who also seem like they could be really good. Fears probably has the highest bust potential but the guy looks amazing with the ball in his hands. Wall got by on his size and speed. Same with Arenas. Wiz a long time ago had God Shammgod (one of the original mixtape stars) and Rod Strickland and Fears looks like he's that level good with the ball. After years and years of boring and bad basketball, I could live with some excitement and highlights. Wiz on the right track already with AJ Johnson and Bub.

Would be good if we got Fears or another really good guard plus Essengue or Maluach. Traore maybe? No clue if he's going to be any good though.

[dcPress]

My final would be
6: essengue. He’s showing out in the playoffs, and fits the archetype. Not going to mess up our tank as a rookie the way Tre might.

18: sorber, traore, Jase, or beringer. Prefer to trade up for Bryant.

[Dat2U]

Gonna check this out....

Watch on YouTube

I'm not comfortable with the skill level if he's a F. The length is really good but he's less than 200 lbs so C may not be ideal. His best attribute is F mobility with
C length but the C-like skill means he can't take advantage of that benefit offensively. The Giannis comparison does not exist - Noa's face up game appears to still be in its infancy stage.

I tend to believe he is one of those, 'can do a little of everything, but not really excels at anything' types. Defensively, while he's long, he's not a true rim deterrent. And while mobility is good, the motor could use some juice. I'd pass because he doesn't have one thing he can truly rely on - and I don't know the FT rate is translatable. He could really struggle offensively to start out his career and I still question how good his hands are.

He is a defensible pick as a project at 18 but I wouldn't be too interested. I would probably freak out if he was the pick at 6.

[Dat2U]

I've had Ace at 3 for months. His motor on D and on the boards is something we can count on from the start. His offense will take some development but there is a lot of possible upside.

Strangely he shot much better on contested 3s than on open ones. I expect him to improve a lot on open 3s similar to the way I felt about Bub.

At 3, I take VJ. He & Flagg are the best two-way players in the draft. I buy the work ethic, the jumper & the outlier athleticism. Still pretty raw handle wise but tbh, his first step is so quick, he just needs to improve the handle a little to be a real threat on the ball.

Between Ace & Tre, I lean Tre but you could probably talk me into Ace pretty easily. I go back and forth on those two alot. Out of the teams in the lottery, the Wizards feel like the absolute perfect fit for Ace as far as player development & roster construction are concerned.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

DQ immediately becomes the best offensive player on this team and its not even close. No way he passes us if our GM is any good.

I've been saying this, but i think our GM is fixated on long, no-game-having athletic specimens.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

My final would be
6: essengue. He’s showing out in the playoffs, and fits the archetype. Not going to mess up our tank as a rookie the way Tre might.

18: sorber, traore, Jase, or beringer. Prefer to trade up for Bryant.

Gonna check this out....

Watch on YouTube

I'm not comfortable with the skill level if he's a F. The length is really good but he's less than 200 lbs so C may not be ideal. His best attribute is F mobility with
C length but the C-like skill means he can't take advantage of that benefit offensively. The Giannis comparison does not exist - Noa's face up game appears to still be in its infancy stage.

I tend to believe he is one of those, 'can do a little of everything, but not really excels at anything' types. Defensively, while he's long, he's not a true rim deterrent. And while mobility is good, the motor could use some juice. I'd pass because he doesn't have one thing he can truly rely on - and I don't know the FT rate is translatable. He could really struggle offensively to start out his career and I still question how good his hands are.

He is a defensible pick as a project at 18 but I wouldn't be too interested. I would probably freak out if he was the pick at 6.

He won't be as bad as Vesely. In three years, he might be pretty good. He's definitely not the best player to pick at 6. Selecting so as not to ruin the tank sounds asinine to me, no offense.

Get a great player who immediately fills a team need.

[payitforward]

It would also be interesting to look at a number of drafts to determine whether 6 & 27 would have made a better result possible than 8 & 18.

No. What you are suggesting is that 8 + 26 + 27 is better than 6 + 18.

Nah... that's too abstract. If that were the case, no one would ever make the trade!

I'm just suggesting that it's a feasible trade. I.e. in a given draft (say this one) it would be possible that a team would go for such a trade.

Plus, remember my premise that you were pretty sure that you'd get the same guy at 8 whom you were going to take at 6, i.e. Maluach, so that In effect the trade I was suggesting would turn out to be just 18 for 26 & 27.

Now... there'd have to be a reason, obviously, prospects you like enough to do the trade. Moreover, not every team can (or wants to) take on an extra rookie.

Plus, every draft is different. E.g. imagine a team trading 2 for 4 plus whatever. In this draft it'd have to be a much bigger "whatever" than in, say, 2024.

[nate33]

I fully expect them to trade up with Philly though. Hoping it’s for Edgecombe instead of Bailey.

The trade that makes sense to me is Middleton + Kispert + #6 for Paul George + #3.

Then we flip Paul George to Phoenix for Beal (turning George's 3-year contract into Beal's 2-year contract) and then buy out Beal.

Beal is owed roughly $111M, that would be a massive buyout. Phoenix can offer about $80M due to their salary cap situation, maybe we can offer more, I don’t know. Brad would not take $80M. $110M big price to move up 3 spots, even allowing for the $72M savings on Middleton and reminder of Kispert. Ishiba has been bad, but not sure he would take on Paul George contract.

If you allow for the $74M in savings on Middleton and Kispert, then we are paying $37M to move up from #6 to #3. I think that is probably the going rate for moving up high in the lottery.