OT: Shaq to Phoenix more than a rumor

[LyricalRico]

btw - the West right now.

Contenders: Spurs, Mavs, Suns (shaq or no shaq), and Lakers

Better than all but Detroit in the East: Utah, New Orleans

And oh yea: Denver, Houston, Golden State

and of course, The Future: Portland

Yea, this isn't anything new. The West has been the dominant conference for most of the last decade, but has the disparity ever been wider?

I think that the East has a serious case of the "have's" and "have not's". There are a few really good teams at the top but after that the dropoff is massive, unlike the West where they could have 2 or more teams miss the playoffs with above .500 records.

[Induveca]

It's a monumentally stupid move by Kerr. Adding Shaq is going to force them to change everything they've done in the past 3 seasons. All the motion and movement in their offense is going to grind to a halt. No more slashing and hard cuts for Marion and Stoudemire with Shaq clogging the lane. Say goodbye to their fastbreak attack. Marion was their fast break attack.

I don't think they'll be able to adapt quick enough. Stoudemire has never played in a half court system. Diaw sucked in a half court system. Raja Bell's offensive inadequacies will be exposed in a half court system.

Finally, if they really wanted a half court presence, why didn't they offer Marion and picks for Gasol? That's a much better deal for Memphis than the pooh-pooh plater they got from LA.

Respect you Nate, but talk to me come playoff time. While we Wiz fans would love to endorse the Suns run/gun style as a formula for winning a championship.....it isn't.

If we were fortunate enough to have the huge regular season success of Phoenix these past 3/4 years, but get outed in the playoffs by bigger teams who FORCED us to play in a halfcourt set.......I hope we'd do the same thing.

Kerr is going for it all, not in the regular season but in the playoffs. Phoenix may have been "fun" to watch in the regular season but in a 5 or 7 game series, bigger teams always figured out ways to neutralize them.

[nate33]

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Respect you Nate, but talk to me come playoff time. While we Wiz fans would love to endorse the Suns run/gun style as a formula for winning a championship.....it isn't.

I guess we'll find out.

I think the other West teams are now drooling at the idea of running pick-and-rolls exploiting Shaq's horrific defense. Tony Parker and Tim Duncan are going to shred them. Kobe and Gasol are going to shred them.

[Ruzious]

It seems like Phoenix is saying - What we've done every year hasn't worked in the playoffs, so let's go for it. Unfortunately, it's not going to work, because the current Shaq does not equal the old Shaq - he's a shell of his former self. And to drastically change a great offense for the current Shaq doesn't make much sense. Also, I think people don't appreciate what a great all-around player Marion is.

The trade reminds me why Pat Riley deserves to be called one of the all-time greats - even if I usually root for him to lose and detest some of the egomaniacal things he's done in the past. Marion is a perfect fit to play with Wade, and Banks will be their starting PG. I'd bet on him somehow finding a way to add front court players that will make Miami a very good team - as soon as next season. Beasley and Marion would make an extremely good forward combo. He'll find a center some way.

[nate33]

^^^
Yup. Miami will be a team to be reckoned with as soon as next season.

I don't think they'll get Beasley. Stern already gave Memphis the #1 lotto pick. But what if Miami gets Hibbert?

Banks
Wade
Marion
Haslem
Hibbert

That's a pretty solid core.

[jmrosenth]

So nate - what are the luxury tax ramifications for the Suns with this deal? This year and next?

The Suns have made a bunch of moves over the last few years to avoid the tax. They've sold off their picks - literally they've gotten no help from the draft in the last 3 seasons. Perhaps if they had, they wouldn't be making this desperation trade. They also haven't spent their MLE money very well (see, Marcus Banks). Kurt Thomas was also traded for nothing but a trade exception for tax purposes.

But now they are going to go over the tax for a 36-year old Shaq due $40mill over the next two when they already had a contending team in place?

Kerr, Paxson, and Jordan. The Ex-Bulls aren't exactly having banner years.

[Ruzious]

^^^
Yup. Miami will be a team to be reckoned with as soon as next season.

I don't think they'll get Beasley. Stern already gave Memphis the #1 lotto pick. But what if Miami gets Hibbert?

Banks
Wade
Marion
Haslem
Hibbert

That's a pretty solid core.

Yeah, maybe they could even trade down a couple of spots and get Hibbert - picking up a forward in the deal.

What's that about Stern giving Memphis the #1 pick?

[MJG]

So nate - what are the luxury tax ramifications for the Suns with this deal? This year and next?

The Suns have made a bunch of moves over the last few years to avoid the tax. They've sold off their picks - literally they've gotten no help from the draft in the last 3 seasons. Perhaps if they had, they wouldn't be making this desperation trade. They also haven't spent their MLE money very well (see, Marcus Banks). Kurt Thomas was also traded for nothing but a trade exception for tax purposes.

But now they are going to go over the tax for a 36-year old Shaq due $40mill over the next two when they already had a contending team in place?

Kerr, Paxson, and Jordan. The Ex-Bulls aren't exactly having banner years.

Don't forget that Banks is being dealt as well. Banks + Marion >= Shaq, in terms of salary this year and next (assuming Marion isn't opting out). Not sure about that last year of Shaq's deal though.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

The only reason why I could see the Suns doing this is if they thought that reupping Marion was a lost cause. As others have mentioned, he is a HUGE part of their current style at both ends, and their best/most versatile defender to boot. Shaq on the floor COMPLETELY changes everything they're about. I guess Kerr thought he couldn't win a title as constructed, but they certainly have come close. I probably would have given it one more playoff run. I don't subscribe to the "let's make a move to make a move theory." The Suns - as constructed, were a championship caliber team. A few breaks go their way and they'd have a title or two during this Nash run.

I think that Jamison would have fit in better with the Suns than Shaq will. Shaq might get a third wind, but at his age, and the injuries/weight problems, etc, he'll be the most expensive decoy in the league.
Great move by Riley IMO.

I completely agree with this post and with what Nate was saying regarding how Shaq shackles the Suns' flowing offense. This move smacks of desperation to me... it makes little sense for Phx.

I was at at Suns game earlier in the year and talking with a bunch of Suns' fans. The consensus seemed to be that they had grown a little tired of Marion... and all felt that Jamison would be a beast in the Suns system.

I would have liked the Wiz to explore some Marion/Jamison trades... I like Banks and think that Marion would be great in EJ's system. Phx seemed very ready to cashier Banks at any cost... But I personally think he's developing a shot, is a great defender and has learned to distribute from the best. I think he has a tremendous upside.

[nate33]

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What's that about Stern giving Memphis the #1 pick?

That was a joke. It's my only rational explanation for why Memphis gave Gasol away to LA for peanuts. Stern must have guaranteed them the first pick in the lottery.

[Ruzious]

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That was a joke. It's my only rational explanation for why Memphis gave Gasol away to LA for peanuts. Stern must have guaranteed them the first pick in the lottery.

They almost need a new Ted Stepien type rule for Memphis to protect the franchise. How bout every Memphis trade has to be approved by a majority of the Wiz forum to be finalized.

[nate33]

So nate - what are the luxury tax ramifications for the Suns with this deal? This year and next?

The Suns have made a bunch of moves over the last few years to avoid the tax. They've sold off their picks - literally they've gotten no help from the draft in the last 3 seasons. Perhaps if they had, they wouldn't be making this desperation trade. They also haven't spent their MLE money very well (see, Marcus Banks). Kurt Thomas was also traded for nothing but a trade exception for tax purposes.

But now they are going to go over the tax for a 36-year old Shaq due $40mill over the next two when they already had a contending team in place?

Kerr, Paxson, and Jordan. The Ex-Bulls aren't exactly having banner years.

Do we have official word on the trade yet?

If it's just Marion + Banks for O'Neal, then Phoenix saves $400K in cap room this year, $2M in cap room next year, and it costs them $15.5M in cap room in the following year.

The savings in the next two years are effectively doubled because Phoenix is over the luxtax. Ownership will save about $5M over those two year. The situation in 2009/10 is unclear. It depends on what the luxtax threshold will be. It's possible that Phoenix just squeaks under the luxtax in 2009/10 so there won't be any additional penalty. (Of course, paying Shaq $20M two years from now is penalty enough. I shudder to think about how bad he will be by then.)

I guess if Phoenix is thinking that they're going to lose Marion anyhow, then maybe the trade makes some sense. I just have trouble believing they couldn't find a better deal elsewhere. Marion straight up for Jamison is much better for Phoenix.

Marion plus a pick for Gasol would have been terrific for Phoenix (and better for Memphis).

[nate33]

I'll be real curious to see what happens to Marion this offseason. Marion is due to earn $17M next year but he is talking about opting out. Nobody, I mean nobody, has the cap room available to pay him that much. Why would he opt out?

If he can get Miami to negotiate an extension for anything near that $17M range, that would be good for us. Marion is a nice player but not worth that much. I'll be happy to see a conference rival tie up so much salary in one player.

[Induveca]

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I guess we'll find out.

I think the other West teams are now drooling at the idea of running pick-and-rolls exploiting Shaq's horrific defense. Tony Parker and Tim Duncan are going to shred them. Kobe and Gasol are going to shred them.

Shaq/Stoudemire in the paint does not make pick and rolls an easy thing to pull off......if Shaq hangs around the paint he intimidates through presence alone.

I think you're really underestimating Shaq. He has always been a guy who has needed to be motivated. This could do it......

This is one instance where stats don't tell the whole story. Shaq has a chance to get a ring with three teams, after his first time not making the all star team, and a lot of people doubting him.

He wasn't happy for whatever reason in Miami any longer. I suspect his divorce could have a lot to do with it as well. I speak from experience here, after a divorce the same scenery/reminders of your past can kill motivation as well.

[LyricalRico]

I don't think they'll get Beasley. Stern already gave Memphis the #1 lotto pick. But what if Miami gets Hibbert?

Banks
Wade
Marion
Haslem
Hibbert

That's a pretty solid core.

Do you really think Riles is playing for the longterm? They likely won't extend Marion at his current price tag and he's going to be a free agent in a year when, to my knowledge, a number of teams will have cap space. I also don't think Riley is interested in developing a young big like Hibbert.

But now that they've shaved the last year of Shaq's contract off their books, they can afford to trade their expirings for another quality starter and take a one more luxury tax hit next year.

Trading Davis+JWill+Wright+08first for Bibby+SAR would give them this:

Blount/Barron
Haslem/Rahim
Marion/Jackson
Wade/Cook
Bibby/Banks

That lineup should be able to makeup the 10 games it'll take for them to get the 8th seed (completely possible since they have 2 months to do it). It also keeps them very competitive in the East for next season.

Then they wipe half their cap off in 2009 with Marion and Bibby expire, giving them $20M in cap space to rebuild again around Wade. Then they'll gain another $15M in cap space the following year when Blount and Haslem come off the books. So they are able to meet both short term goals and set themselves up for longterm success.

I'll take that scenario over drafting Hibbert anyday and I think Riley would, too.

[nate33]

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Shaq/Stoudemire in the paint does not make pick and rolls an easy thing to pull off......if Shaq hangs around the paint he intimidates through presence alone.

I think you're really underestimating Shaq. He has always been a guy who has needed to be motivated. This could do it......

This is one instance where stats don't tell the whole story. Shaq has a chance to get a ring with three teams, after his first time not making the all star team, and a lot of people doubting him.

He wasn't happy for whatever reason in Miami any longer. I suspect his divorce could have a lot to do with it as well. I speak from experience here, after a divorce the same scenery/reminders of your past can kill motivation as well.

Shaq can't guard the pick and roll at all anymore. And he is slow to help on the weakside defense. A team like San Antonio or LA will play Duncan/Gasol at center and position him in the high post. They'll draw Shaq out to the top of the key where he is hopelessly outmatched.

Offensively, Shaq can still score in the post, but not as effectively as he used to. The problem is that with Shaq's lardass in the post, he'll clog up the lane, preventing Steve Nash from penetrating and making those beautiful passes to a hard-cutting Stoudemire or Marion.

Another problem is that Phoenix doesn't really have the outside shooting that they used to be known for. Nash is as good as it gets from three, but Hill, Stoudemire and Diaw lack 3-point range, and Barbosa and Bell are just mediocre, shooting in the 36-37% range. To play Phoenix, all you have to do is guard Nash tight and pack everyone else into the paint.

[nate33]

Trading Davis+JWill+Wright+08first for Bibby+SAR would give them this:

Geez, do you really think Bibby will cost that much?

I think when push comes to shove, Miami could just offer the expiring contracts to get him. There's no need to throw in the lotto pick. Miami is already doing Sacramento a favor by swallowing SAR's contract.

Maybe Miami has to add a few second rounders or a future first, but I don't see Bibby costing a high lotto pick.

[tsvqt]

Does anyone think CHRIS KAMAN would have been a better fit for Phoenix? Maybe a KAMAN, MAGGETTE, CASSELL, ROSS for MARION, SKINNER & BANKS deal would have been better?

[nate33]

Here's a novel thought:

With Shaq gone, Miami has nobody left to man the paint. Might they need a physical rebounder and shot blocker with a penchant for poetry?

[nate33]

Does anyone think CHRIS KAMAN would have been a better fit for Phoenix? Maybe a KAMAN, MAGGETTE, CASSELL, ROSS for MARION, SKINNER & BANKS deal would have been better?

Kaman would certainly be a better fit. LA wouldn't trade him for Marion though. They certainly wouldn't include Maggette and Cassell's expiring while taking on Skinner and Banks. That's awful for LA.