General (Non-Wiz) Draft Discussion

[closg00]

Dat's Ranking the draft prospects by tiers:

TIER 1

PF Blake Griffin

He's the only potential superstar of this class. From my own eyes, I see alot of Tim Duncan in his demeanor & work ethic and without a doubt, he's a class individual. Clear and away the best prospect and its not even close.

TIER 2

PG Ricky Rubio

He's got the potential to go to a couple of all-star games. A mix of Steve Nash & Jason Kidd. Doesn't have the straight end speed of Kidd or the jumpshot of Nash but he's got good size for the position and he's an underrated defender IMO. Maybe the most skilled player at his age in the draft since LeBron.

TIER 3

PG/SG Tyreke Evans
PF Ed Davis
PG/SG Stephen Curry
PG Ty Lawson
PF/C Greg Monroe

Evans is the 3rd best player in the draft IMO. He's a deluxe combo guard. Good size, great handles and terrific ability to break down defenses off the dribble. Davis & Monroe are diaper dandies who aren't ready for prime time but their length & ability make them intriguing prospects down the road. Davis with his athleticism and Monroe more with his skillset. Lawson is powerful and explosive but lacks height while Curry doesn't have elite athleticism and is a bit scrawny but both will be successful PGs on the next level.

TIER 4

SG Demar DeRozan
SF Earl Clark
PG Eric Maynor
SG James Harden
SG Gerald Henderson
PF/C DeJuan Blair
SG/SF Chase Budinger
PG Jonny Flynn

DeRozan has the highest upside of the remaining prosects. Developing his ballhandling will be the key. Clark & Budinger look like solid role players at the SF spot. Blair is a banger & will be an elite rebounder but he won't score like he did in college. Harden & Henderson tend to be a bit overrated in most mocks but can help a team as a spot starters/6th man types. Maynor & Flynn are undersized PGs with plenty of will and moxie.

TIER 5

C Hasheem Thabeet
PG/SG Jrue Holiday
PG/SG Jeff Teague
PG/SG Willie Warren
PG Brandon Jennings
PF James Johnson
PF Jordan Hill

Many of these names will be drafted higher than they should be. It's anyone's guess to which of these guys will develop to be a real contributor. Thabeet will be completely worthless on offense & doesn't rebound outside his area well. Teague has no clue of how to run a team. Jennings was overmatched overseas. Hill has too little skillset & b-ball IQ to be much more than a rebounder/defender type. Holiday, Johnson & Warren really needed more time in school and more of an opportunity to be the man.

TIER 6

SF Sam Young
PF Tyler Hansbrough
PF/C Craig Brackins
PF Patrick Patterson
PG Darren Collison
PG Patrick Mills
SG Wayne Ellington
PF Josh Heytvelt
SG/SF Terrence Williams
SG Jodie Meeks
SG/SF Danny Green
PG/SG Nick Calathes
SF Omri Casspi
SF Tyler Smith

Out of this group, Young & Hansbrough are the best bets to actually contribute right away. Young is a skilled scorer & Hansbrough can hit the face up J and hustle like no other. Meeks is one-dimensonal but when he's on he can light it up. Heytvelt may be the real sleeper, as he's very skilled for a big man although he's got some skeleton's in his closet. The rest may find a roster to stick on but look like deep bench players more than rotation guys, at least initially.

THE PLEASE GO BACK TO SCHOOL TIER

SF/PF Al-Farouq Aminu
C B.J. Mullens
SF/PF DaJuan Summers
PG Greivis Vasquez

Aminu & Mullens are 1st class busts if they come out. Both have no skill, low b-ball IQ and character issues. They need another 2 years of college, at least! Summers & Vasquez have no business being in the draft. They are marginal NBA prospects who need to come back for their senior seasons and help our local teams next year. If they stay in, they may be playing somewhere like Belgium or Italy next season.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

http://basketball.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/58494/20090413/uncs_davis_to_return_for_2009_2010_season/

Ed Davis is going back to school for his sophmore season.

Word is Greg Monroe is strongly leaning towards returning as well. Steph Curry is surprisingly giving alot of thought to staying as well. Apparently getting a degree is real important to him and his family.

Dat, Steph's dad made good money playing what 10-15 years in the NBA and his mom's a school principal. From their perspective they probably tell their son that he's got the rest of his life to work hard for a living, but that being on campus, having experiences at that level that are intellectually enlightening and often lots of fun would be their desire for him. In the NBA, he's just another SG/PG with expectations on him. As a parent I'd tell my kids to follow their heart if I were in that same situation. The risk being an injury and the loss of that year's money is something I'd caution they'd have to live with if they didn't go pro.

Another thought I had looking at him is the kid wears size 14 shoes and his dad's a legit 6'5". Curry's grown since HS and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's a rare guy who's still growing at 21-22.

Having said all that I expect he goes pro, but I'm not shocked he's considering staying in school.

[Benjammin]

I agree that picks 3-8 or so (even 2 without Rubio in the draft) have a poor talent level relative to their draft position. If the Wizards are in the 3-5 spot, hopefully some teams will fall in love with Thabeet, Hill, or Lawson and they can move back in the draft and clean up in part their cap mistakes (Stevenson, to a slightly lesser extent Songaila, etc.). In the 8-11 range I would be okay with Evans, Lawson, Curry, Henderson, Harden, or DeRozan. Or trade the pick and contract(s) for a player in the Association currently who could be a good contributor.

[LyricalRico]

If the Wizards are in the 3-5 spot, hopefully some teams will fall in love with Thabeet, Hill, or Lawson and they can move back in the draft and clean up in part their cap mistakes (Stevenson, to a slightly lesser extent Songaila, etc.).

Agreed. I actually think that some guys staying in school will make it more likely for Rubio to come over since he'd have almost no competition for the #2 overall spot. But after that, we have to hope that somebody gets infatuated with a guy (probably Thabeet IMO) and wants to move up. This being a one or two horse draft could actually make that more likely so I'm pretty optimistic EG can get something done on draft day.

[spaceman_E]

Harden is probably my second favorite player in this draft for the Wiz.
Maybe he isn't a great defender but I see Butler and Jamison moving on in the next 2 years if we aren't on the cusp of winning a title by then. In that case, a lineup of Gil Harden Dmac stud PF Wood/Mcgee looks pretty nice to me.

[Ruzious]

IF we dont get Blake or Rubio, you want to draft someone who is able to start right away especially if you are picking that high.

I still think James Harden is your man. He is a good player and needs to be on team with some talent around him. He was getting quadrupled team in the NCAA. If we draft him, he will be our starting shooting guard for the next 10 plus years and probably make an all star appearance or something.

I like Harden a lot, as well. Still, I'd rather get Green in the 2nd round to get 20 minutes a game at the 2 - to give us our first and only defensive minded player who can hit 3's. But I wouldn't cry if we end up with Harden.

Evans? I don't have the patience any more than Caron would with Evans. He has great potential, but he made tons of mistakes at the college level. Though he's closer to being a finished product than Aminu is.

Thabeet will be the 3rd pick, and we can trade him for valuable prizes.

With the 4th pick - when push comes to shove - I'd probably take Lawson. I got laughed at in the mock draft board (See Cammo's thread) when I said he should be a top 7 - when nobody had him in the top 15 - before he put on a show at the NCAA tournament. He's a special player, imo.

[Ed Wood]

This thread entirely lacks the glamor and panache that so epitomized the first. A draft thread it may be, but is not a thread to move faux-scouts to great works of projection. But the code of the fan does demand that, for every seven foot future millionaire with a five dollar haircut and a love of twenty foot heaves, there must be words, and words there shall be.

Much as I like both Greg Monroe and Ed Davis as prospects (I like Monroe as much as I like any draftable player currently and I think Davis is capable of far more was asked of him at UNC this year) I'm glad both seem inclined to remain in school. Monroe needs to to learn to better convert ability into reliability as a cornerstone at the college level. I look forward to seeing a more assertive Monroe next year, and presumably to a Georgetown team more committed to treating him as its hardwood alpha and omega. UNC's fronline next year isn't going to be any less stacked than it was this year, but Davis is too good not to be a big deal sooner or later.

Evans is a difficult player for me to evaluate fairly because I invent excuses to ignore his talent. He's certainly capable of being one of the if not the most productive player in this class over the long term but I have trouble getting past how little I like to watch him play and how little I like the Memphis program (and the ethos of college athletic operations that I associate with it) from which he hails. Evans is a very good player who I think suffers very much from the same issue most of our guards already do. He's not very comfortable, or effective, without the ball in his hands and when it is he's reluctant to let go of it if he isn't sure that he's getting an assist out of the exchange. So when I watch him play I find myself evaluating an effigy as opposed to a young man, and that's not fair. He's very talented, I can't deny that.

I had a similar block going with Lawson for a while. I couldn't look at the kid without seeing Raymond Felton, and I'm not a fan of Felton, but I think I've kicked that habit, exposure led to extinction of my condition. He's really good, but I'm still not a fan of small stocky guards, and I don't like the prognosis for his defense. It'd be a neat trick if he managed not to be a liability. On the other hand I'm on a bit of a Wayne Ellington bender currently, and if he doesn't escape the late first fate Express is predicting he'd be a nice trade down consolation and a dynamite second round pick. He'd just kill with Gil, Caron and Antawn around to get him looks. Both of Carolina's draft eligible wings (Danny Green the other) would be lovely catches if they last long enough.

[closg00]

Rubio update per Chad Ford.

William (NY): any updates on Rubio?

Chad Ford: (1:59 PM ET ) Sure. While Rubio hasn't made an official announcement and doesn't plan to until closer to the deadline to declare, sources close to the situation say that Rubio will declare for the draft and try to workout a more reasonable buyout with his club from Spain. If Rubio can get them to come to a manageable number (try something in the $3 million USD range) then he'll stay in the draft. Rubio is widely considered the second best prospect in the draft and shouldn't slip out of the Top 3 on Draft Night.

It's Blake than Rubio, after that, it's a wide-open draft. Should be a pretty interesting draft to watch for trades, surprises etc.

[MJG]

Interesting note from the same chat from Ford on John Wall (someone who I know nothing about, but have heard mentioned for next year's draft):

Mike, FL: Is John Wall the No. 1 pick in 2010 Draft. He was awesome at the Hoop Summit game.

SportsNation Chad Ford: He was awesome and he'll compete with Ed Davis and a few other freshmen for that. However, there is some buzz that Wall believes he might be eligible for THIS year's draft. I've been doing some digging and will be filing a story later today. The short rub is this: Wall is a 5th year senior and depending on how you read the collective bargaining agreement, 5th year seniors are eligible for the draft as long as the turn 19 in the calander year (Wall does). The league is taking a wait and see approach. If he declares, they'll research and make a ruling. If he does declare and is ruled eligible (two big ifs) he's a Top 5 pick in this draft. Maybe Top 3.

[yungal07]

If we can get a top 2 pick, we are in good shape to get Blake, whether outright or with a trade up. Excellent.

[fishercob]

Wow! That could be huge for the Wiz in trade scenarios. I imagine teams would pay a lot more to get their hands on Wall than they would on Jordan Hill or Harden.

Dat, you need to start scouting and update those rankings!

[yungal07]

If wall comes out, he's drafted before Rubio.

This dude is Chris Paul + 4 inches. Holy smokes...

[cdouglas]

First!

Anyway, here's to hoping that Blake Griffin will be in a Wizards uni by the time this thread reaches 100 pages!

I'm excited because I believe the Wizards will get the #1 pick. Change in DC!

[Benjammin]

If Wall declares and is eligible that could be huge for the Wizards. Assuming Rubio declares as well, that would give three players at the top of the draft with real value. Drafting/trading rights of Wall/Rubio would not be a bad consolation prize if the Wizards don't happen to get Griffin (;-).

[miller31time]

Wall being deemed eligible is absolutely crucial.

The Wizards, in all likelihood will not pick below 3rd (there's like a 15-20% chance they won't get a top-3 pick, right?) so having Wall in the draft ensures us with a player who can fetch an enormous amount in the trade market (assuming we don't keep him).

This could be incredible....just don't screw it up, NBA.

[miller31time]

Someone on the NBA Draft Forum made a good point, though - Just because he might be declared eligible for the draft doesn't mean he will actually go through with it.

[fishercob]

Wall being deemed eligible is absolutely crucial.

The Wizards, in all likelihood will not pick below 3rd (there's like a 15-20% chance they won't get a top-3 pick, right?) so having Wall in the draft ensures us with a player who can fetch an enormous amount in the trade market (assuming we don't keep him).

This could be incredible....just don't screw it up, NBA.

I don't think it's close to that high. Someone (MJG?) posted the odds of each pick getting each pick, but I can't find it.

If Wall gets in the draft, I think it actually makes the top 4 pick trade-worthy because I think teams would trade for a shot at Thabeet (even though I wouldnt want him).

[fishercob]

Code: Select all

Seed         Chances    1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th      6th    
1               250    .250    .215    .178    .357                               
2               199    .199    .188    .171    .319    .123                            
3               156    .156    .157    .156    .226    .265    .040                         
4               119    .119    .126    .133    .099    .351    .160    .012

Took this from here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

So if we end up with the third worst record, we have a 46% shot at a top 3 pick.
If we end up with the second worst record we have a 55% shot at a top 3 pick.

So presumably, if we tie for second/third with the Clips, we have a 50/50 shot at a top 3 pick.

[miller31time]

Code: Select all

Seed         Chances    1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th      6th    
1               250    .250    .215    .178    .357                               
2               199    .199    .188    .171    .319    .123                            
3               156    .156    .157    .156    .226    .265    .040                         
4               119    .119    .126    .133    .099    .351    .160    .012

Took this from here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

So if we end up with the third worst record, we have a 46% shot at a top 3 pick.
If we end up with the second worst record we have a 55% shot at a top 3 pick.

So presumably, if we tie for second/third with the Clips, we have a 50/50 shot at a top 3 pick.

Well that's depressing.

[nate33]

Just watched some youtube video of John Wall. That guy is gonna be real good - it's just going to take a while. If we drafted him and ended up keeping him, I wouldn't be upset at all.