Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[sfam]

^ thats what im saying..our development staff suck...and outside of those players and bennet who I forgot to mention, most of our other prospects going to need some work...

Porter would be a good glue guy for okc or the bulls or spurs...a team that can really coach his advantages and build upon his disadvantages...the wizards csnt do that...if we could seraphin would average 18ppg ( he has the skills)...vesley would be (best case/bulls) andrea kirlenko and chris singleton would be rhe lakers trevor ariza...but instead...all a bunch of d league players...

Not saying porters going to end up that way, but with the wizards development staff..I domt see him being tht player we want...wall cant develop 2 rookie wings at the same time...(yes he had a strong influence on beal turnaround)

Nivek may have the right of it. Perhaps Vesely and Singleton are just sucky talents. It may be that nobody could turn Vesely into AK47. If that's the case the player development, while still important, isn't as critical as talent evaluation.

[WizarDynasty]

^ thats what im saying..our development staff suck...and outside of those players and bennet who I forgot to mention, most of our other prospects going to need some work...

Porter would be a good glue guy for okc or the bulls or spurs...a team that can really coach his advantages and build upon his disadvantages...the wizards csnt do that...if we could seraphin would average 18ppg ( he has the skills)...vesley would be (best case/bulls) andrea kirlenko and chris singleton would be rhe lakers trevor ariza...but instead...all a bunch of d league players...

Not saying porters going to end up that way, but with the wizards development staff..I domt see him being tht player we want...wall cant develop 2 rookie wings at the same time...(yes he had a strong influence on beal turnaround)

Nivek may have the right of it. Perhaps Vesely and Singleton are just sucky talents. It may be that nobody could turn Vesely into AK47. If that's the case the player development, while still important, isn't as critical as talent evaluation.

Singleton doesn't have an explosive first step. Vesely doesn't have an explosive first step. Both have poor body control with the basketball. they had these attributes before they came to the wizards. they were "sucky" talents that EG over valued because he didn't use my 2 out 3 attributes plus lower body strength for bigs.
Seraphin, no explosive first step. Seraphin appears to have poor body control with the basketball. he can't move the ball in the air and score after initiating creating contact. Seraphin is a less suck prospect than vesely and singleton. Booker deserves to be in vesely category. No body control with the basketball, and can't finish through contact.

[fishercob]

I didn't see much of Zeller other than the Big 10 championship game and the NCAA tournament and he struggled in all those games. BTW, here are Zeller's highlights vs Syracuse.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPlWUrG0AC0

I also think what's hurts Zeller's case is that Mitch McGary was able to carve up Syracuse's zone. I wouldn't rule out taking Zeller because of a few bad games because he played so well in other games although I would probably pass on him at #3.

Ah, the infamous Indiana game! The closing argument. The mic-drop.

Really?

He had one turnover and 10 rebounds in what is submitted as unyielding proof that he'll be no good as a pro.

Let's break down some tape, ladies!

Clip 1: Great job running the floor and great catch of a long pass. Stuffed inside after being surrounded by 3 guys. Would have liked to have seen him kick that out, but once he was triple teamed he couldnt get a pass off.

Clip 2: Looks athletic tipping in a missed shot. Got pushed on the play from behind and still gathered himself well enough to get up high and score.

Clip 3: Nice duck in to make himself available for the high-low pass. I woudl have liked to have seen him go up immediately for the finish, but he was fouled on the floor. Then he doesn't even budge as a dude falls over him. Looks strong.

Clip 4: Beautiful play that would give coach Pop a boner. Runs the floor, drives to the hoop to draw the D and kicks to the corner for the open 3. Great basketball play.

Clips 5: Receives bounce pass mid-dove from the high to low post in the soft part of the zone. Bothered by the length of the defender at the rim and misses. The mistake here in not the miss, girls! It was the wrong read; he should have kicked to his man in the far corner for the 3 OR that guy should have cut to the rim.

Clip 6: Keeps a play alive with a tip on the offensive glass -- makes a strong athletic play to get to the ball in the first place. Gets it back and misses a bunny; wide open.

Clip 7: Tom Crean, we have to talk. Zeller catches the ball in the high post, presumably expected to create something. He is -- literally -- surrounded by five Orange men, none of them Tony Kornheiser. Zeller drives into two defenders and gets his shot blocked. Play was doomed from the start; Anthony Davis wouldn;t have beaten SU's zone that way. It's just flawed strategy.

Clip 8: Deja vu. Indiana gives Zeller the ball in the high post, surrounded by 5 defenders. He drives and gets blocked. On both of these plays, an Olynyk-type spin move would have helped him create some space for a shot, but again they were doomed to fail before they started.

Clip 9: Zeller again receives pass between the high and low posts. He shot gets blocked by the help man.

Clip 10: Zeller drives from the right elbow to his left, gets fouled in the act.

Clip 11: Opposing guard gets driven by his man towards Zeller who rotates over and blocks his shot.

CLip 12: Z finds a soft spot in the zone, takes on dribble, squares up and scores.

I think Cody would be the first to admit that he had a bad game. But if Tom Crean is a real man he's telling every NBA scout who calls him to ask about CZ that he was badly outcoached by Boeheim. It's not a crime; he's not the first or close. I hear Boeheim has won a few college games with that zone of his. There's nothing in this video that tells me he can;t be a very good pro.

Zeller would be our best big man in transition immediately with his combo of speed, hands, and finishing ability (watch his DX breakdown. some of his dunks are ferocious). He should be effective on the pick and pop and space the floor. I think he'll even make a decent dive man on pick and roll with some seasoning. He'll make shots from everywhere. We're not going to dump the ball in to him in the post and ask him to "go to work" very much. He;d struggle in that capacity and we have better ways to generate offense. He'll be phsyically over-matched by very few PF's.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Not sure if this was posted already... more extensive video than the 1 minute highlight.

http://www.monumentalnetwork.com/videos ... /index.jsp


What I like is how fluid and effortless he is stroking the NBA 3.

[truwizfan4evr]

There nobody that sticks out to me on drafting this year but i do consider Noel and Porter. If we cant get either one i would just trade out the draft.

[truwizfan4evr]

Not sure if this was posted already... more extensive video than the 1 minute highlight.

http://www.monumentalnetwork.com/videos ... /index.jsp


What I like is how fluid and effortless he is stroking the NBA 3.

Porter should be the front runner on who wizards should draft.

[tontoz]

Folks talk about league average as if that's an insult. I think Zeller will be better than that, but when I did draft research on 4-year production by draft slot, the third pick (at least according to PER) on average wasn't much better than average.

As usual draft picks are overrated this time of year.

Nonsense, ask the Spurs if draft picks are overrated.

I'd rather ask the Bobcats. Or maybe the Clippers. Or our very own EG. does the 2011 draft ring a bell?

[fishercob]

As usual draft picks are overrated this time of year.

Nonsense, ask the Spurs if draft picks are overrated.

I'd rather ask the Bobcats. Or maybe the Clippers. Or our very own EG. does the 2011 draft ring a bell?

I think it's more meaningful to ask the team trying for its fifth ring.

[80sballboy]

stay far and away from Zeller Wizards. Far and Away.

+1

[tontoz]

I think it's more meaningful to ask the team trying for its fifth ring.

And you would be wrong. By definition a team trying for a fifth ring isnt representative of the league as a whole.

Imagine that we made a bet, looking at all lottery picks for the last few years. I pay you $100 for each player who exceeds fan expectations. You pay me $100 for each player who falls below fan expectations. Who do you think wins that bet?

[80sballboy]

I didn't see much of Zeller other than the Big 10 championship game and the NCAA tournament and he struggled in all those games. BTW, here are Zeller's highlights vs Syracuse.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPlWUrG0AC0

I also think what's hurts Zeller's case is that Mitch McGary was able to carve up Syracuse's zone. I wouldn't rule out taking Zeller because of a few bad games because he played so well in other games although I would probably pass on him at #3.

When it mattered, he was invisible. Very good college player but no way is he a top five pick.

[hands11]

sfam I think we just have different ideas of what the team needs.

I think we're a better team with a 13 and 10 guy who plays good defense like Nene than we are with a 20 and 8 PF who is below average defensively.

In todays perimeter oriented league I have a hard time imagining a team not being very successful with great two way players at the 1, 2, and 3. Getting Porter gives us that for the next 8 years or so.

And again, you can get decent defensive bigs in the draft next year because most defensive bigs are projects taken mid 1st.

Exactly.

I would rather go after a player like VO over Bennett.

In my book, I always preferred a team build around two way plays and key to one of those two ways is strong D. From there, its a sliding scale. A little more offense and you can be a little worse at defense. But I would rather have a 7 defense 3 offense over a 7 offense 3 defense. Both could be considered bench players but in the NBA, you only need two players at Wall and Beal level. From there, you can surround them with good defenders and players that simply score from their spot. A 3 specialist, a offensive rebounder garbage player, etc.

This is where we disagree. I think you need at least 3 players at the Wall/Beal level, and I'm willing to take the risk that an elite offensive player will be good enough on D to make it worth it.

I guess part of that is how we view the Wall and Beal level of talent. Personally, I think both are going to be AS elite level players. I'm talking true studs. And as we have seen, even when teams have a big three, all three are not able to perform at that level without someone taking a back set. That is if all three are truly that elite level of player. And keep in mind, following that model moving forward is going to be tougher. More team are going to need to do it with two great players and depth. Or a big 2 1/2 with depth. Which is what I think the Wizards already have.

So its not that I don't think they need more quality players, I do. Someone at Nene level when healthy is a perfect compliment. Actually, Nene with a better outside shot would be perfect. Then you need good quality scoring and defense like we have in Webster, Trevor A and Okafor. Again, we already have that. They were one of the best 3 ball shooting teams in the league at one point. And a top defensive team.

Personally, I think the Wizards already have something really solid in Wall, Beal, Webster, Nene, Okafor and Travor A and I don't want to see them mess that up while they are trying to add a player at #3 that is not worth that pick or the money.

The Wizards main issues were (1) health - Wall, Beal and Nene, and (2) Wall and Beal turning the corner. Well Wall got healthy and both Wall and Beal turned the corner. So the big question is Nene. If he returns to the beast mode he was in when we got him, the Wizards are already set up to be a really good team.

So in a lot of ways, I don't really like that they have the 3rd pick in this draft class.

This draft class has allowed for a lot of debate because it is flat and deep and having the #3 has created excitment. But having the 3rd pick has created some what of an illusion because it makes it look like we could get another elite player like Wall and Beal. And maybe you can, but it doesn't look very likely. The odds are lower of that happening at #3 this year. I think people are overvaluing these top picks because they are the top picks this year. But they aren't really top pick quality.

A big part of the problem is, the Wizards shouldn't have the 3rd pick this year. They are a much more talented team then that. It wouldn't be a big an issue if this was a really talented class. Like when SA got Duncan when they were already really good, but that isn't the case this year. In this draft, all the picks at 1-3 are a reach.

That's how I see it. The Wizards already have 2.5 studs and a good top 7. I don't see anyone in the top 10 that is better then what they have in their starters.

Except one thing is clear, they need a future center and they need to clear things up at PF. So if you think Len or Noel are legit future NBA starting centers, then that is the best way maximize that pick. That works for fit now and in the future.

If not, I would rather trade back and consolidate. There is quality depth in this class and we need depth more then we need new starters. I just don't want to use a #3 to draft it and I don't want then to draft a player that creates more clutter.

So with the #3, take Len or Noel if you think either is a legit future center. OR draft Burke, VO or McLemore with the pick knowing you will trade them after a year or so. There is no clutter at those positions. If you are going to overdraft, do it there. Nothing wrong with having sick depth at PG and SG.

Or, trade back and get ride of Singleton and Ves. If you do that, you have room to draft someone like Zeller

This draft situation is a lot more complicated then it was for the Wizards last year because they actually already have a 7 good players and the top of the class is not the same quality that you would usually get up there. Last year was so much easier. They clearly needed a SG and Beal was a sure a pick as you can get.

So my list of who I think they should take using the pick or in a trade back are.

Len and Noel - both concern me some. Len is the safer choice, Noel has more star power.
Burke, McLemore, VO, and Zeller

With those as options, I wouldn't draft Bennett or Otto. I see Otto as a Trevor A replacement and Trevor A is not worthy of the #3 pick in a draft.

And if I could get CJM at around #15, I would definitely do that.

Back when we had the #8, Nate really wanted use to add Burke. I said add CJM. If I had to choose between the two I would feel very comfortable with them taking Burke. Even at #3 Now if McLemore could improve his ball handing, he could be a real nice add. Specially give how poor the team played whenever Beal went down.

[hands11]

Just be clear, while I think Bennett is the right pick for us at the #3 slot, I'm far more interested in EG's philosophy. I want him to do his best to identify the most impactful player available, meaning the one he thinks has the best chance to be an all-star level talent. If that's Porter, fine. Same with Olapido, Noel or whomever. I don't want him to simply play it safe. We just aren't winning championships playing it safe. I don't see us finding a Ginobli level talent with a mid to late pick next year. Unless we have major injuries, this is it, folks. Lets go for Gold with this pick. I'm not interested in playing for Bronze. Lets go for Gold even if it increases our chances of bombing out.

I think you are making to much of this draft. You can't make it something it isn't. Just because we have the #3 doesn't mean there is that level of talent there where we need it...a starting center

I'm not sold that there is a player we can pick at the top that is going to be a part of the team for more then one year. The pick is a asset. What you want to do is maximize its value in whatever way you can. That doesn't mean you have to add a long term piece now with it.

As for this being our last shot, so what. We have that asset. Can't take it from us. After that, they have a big long window to build a team around Wall and Beal. You do that in lots of ways. FA, Trades, mid and 2nd round picks.

You need top picks to find franchise on rookie deals. We did that. We have Wall and Beal. We also have some quality vets on contracts that are big enough that they can be used in trades if we want to trade.

My approach to this draft is not to force things that aren't there. Max the value of the pick. There are lots of ways to do that. But don't forecast a 10 year starter with this #3 pick if it isn't there.

Sometimes the safe play is the best play. We were here before in 2011. Ves was the swing for the fences pick. The safe play would be been a trade down and pick Nikola or trade up for Kanter.

[hands11]

@nuposse04

thats what im saying..our development staff suck...and outside of those players and bennet who I forgot to mention, most of our other prospects going to need some work...

Porter would be a good glue guy for okc or the bulls or spurs...a team that can really coach his advantages and build upon his disadvantages...the wizards csnt do that...if we could seraphin would average 18ppg ( he has the skills)...vesley would be (best case/bulls) andrea kirlenko and chris singleton would be rhe lakers trevor ariza...but instead...all a bunch of d league players...

Not saying porters going to end up that way, but with the wizards development staff..I domt see him being tht player we want...wall cant develop 2 rookie wings at the same time...(yes he had a strong influence on beal turnaround)

I see 3 optioms

Trade down for stretch 4 (1..ersan/2..d williams) and draft shabazz
Draft oladipo or bennet
Go crazy trade everyone cept beal wall and webster and create a whole new team,

Sorry, but this .. the Wizards can't develop players stuff is so over played.

Yes, Wall helped Beal. Beal also helped Wall and Beal is a rookie. How can that happen ? Beal is a mature talented person who is focused on this game and his team.

You will see better player develop with better leaders on the team and more stability on the team. And with a solid coach. Well we have that now. So you will see better development as long as they pick the right quality of player. Hell, even a smaller name player like Temple will develop if they keep him around.

SA is a machine because they are a machine. And Tim has a lot to do with that. He leads the way after D Robinson groomed him for the job. They have talented players and stability.

The Wizards were a kiddy play ground of dysfunction because Gilbert had a childish personality and EFJ was his puppet. And to add gas to the fire, EG added fools like Nick and McGee. But McGee was a skinny kid project that was going to take a while. He actually did develop a lot. He developed enough that he is making serious coin on his second contract for a playoff team Nick. Nice kid. Smooth shot. Just not that sharp.

[deneem4]

I agree I jus dont have that much confidence in nene....I like wall beal and webster...thats a tough back court...webster was a top 10 3pt shooter this year...

Ita jus with nene I dont think starting him would be a good idea...il rather him come off the bench...his injuries would be pressure playing against starting forwards...but against a bench pf (not utahs) he'll dominate...

But then why are we paying him 13mil to come off the bench?...if he cant give us more than 27 mins a game we have to trade him

Wr honestly have a log jam at the forward posititon...
Ves
Singleton
Seraphin
Booker
Ariza

With the exception of ves and singletion the rest can be moved for either picks or mid level talent

Il keep seraphin if we move nene
But booker and ariza has to go considering they're status for next year...

I think we can package ariza and nene for another pick or even for some depth in the back court....even though its been discussed and dismissed, I would love ersan beal and webster while keeping okafor, wall would make history in assists...

But having to draft il take
1. Op
2. Bennet
3. Zeller
4. Shabazz
5.mclemore/burke
6.porter

With the current line upbi see us as bein an eextremely tradional an team
Wall
Beal
Webster
Nene
Okafor
While not really lacking we dont really have mixmatches at any position( exception of wall)..sorta trail blazers like without the top pf...or bulls like..
To win games we'll have to reply on out playing opposing teams offensively at 3 othrr positions and having excellent defense
^(portland sorta excuted but had no bench or d)
^(bulls perfected this)
With a
Wall
beal
Shabazz
(Ersan/williams)
Nene/nene

We have a mixmatch at pf and a playmaker at sf...
While not the best defense we have alot of offensive fire power

Drafting bennet gives us a playmaker at pf and is an automatic mixmatch

Drafting porter gives us what we have at sf with a few post moves

Drafting oladipo gives us a nice small ball lineup that would be hard stopping offensively but would make us a pure zone defense

Drafting zeller gives us an athletic bigman with some range and moves but is a big risky

Drafting shabazz gives us a playmaker at sf with a bit explosiveness and some firepower..

Tradinf for
Ersan gives us a top bigman with excellent range everywhere and experience in pick and roll with good rebounding

Dwill gives us a explosive bigman with a bit of range and pick and roll experience and good rebounding....

[stevemcqueen1]

As usual draft picks are overrated this time of year.

Nonsense, ask the Spurs if draft picks are overrated.

I'd rather ask the Bobcats. Or maybe the Clippers. Or our very own EG. does the 2011 draft ring a bell?

I'd rather use the Spurs as my model organization to emulate than make decisions based on the failings of the Clippers and Bobcats.

[stevemcqueen1]

I didn't see much of Zeller other than the Big 10 championship game and the NCAA tournament and he struggled in all those games. BTW, here are Zeller's highlights vs Syracuse.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPlWUrG0AC0

I also think what's hurts Zeller's case is that Mitch McGary was able to carve up Syracuse's zone. I wouldn't rule out taking Zeller because of a few bad games because he played so well in other games although I would probably pass on him at #3.

When it mattered, he was invisible. Very good college player but no way is he a top five pick.

This is a dumb, generic complaint that isn't even true. Was he invisible when he won Indiana the game against Michigan to help win the Big 10 title outright?

[sfam]

Just be clear, while I think Bennett is the right pick for us at the #3 slot, I'm far more interested in EG's philosophy. I want him to do his best to identify the most impactful player available, meaning the one he thinks has the best chance to be an all-star level talent. If that's Porter, fine. Same with Olapido, Noel or whomever. I don't want him to simply play it safe. We just aren't winning championships playing it safe. I don't see us finding a Ginobli level talent with a mid to late pick next year. Unless we have major injuries, this is it, folks. Lets go for Gold with this pick. I'm not interested in playing for Bronze. Lets go for Gold even if it increases our chances of bombing out.

I think you are making to much of this draft. You can't make it something it isn't. Just because we have the #3 doesn't mean there is that level of talent there.

I'm not sold that there is a player we can pick at the top that is going to be a part of the team for more then one year. The pick is a asset. What you want to do it maximize its value in whatever way you can. That doesn't mean you have to add a long term piece now with it.

As for this being our last shot, so what. We have that asset. Can't take it from us. After that, they have a big long window to build a team around Wall and Beal. You do that in lots of ways. FA, Trades, mid and 2nd round picks.

You need top picks to find franchise on rookie deals. We did that. We have Wall and Beal. We also have some quality vets on contracts that are big enough that they can be used in trades if we want to trade.

My approach to this draft is not for force things that aren't there. Max the value of the pick. There are lots of ways to do that. But don't forecast a 10 year starter with this #3 pick.

Sometimes the safe play is the best play. We were here before in 2011. Ves was the swing for the fences pick. The safe play would be been a trade down and pick Nikola or trade up for Kanter.

I get that others disagree with me. But simply stating that nobody at the #3 pick will be impactful so we should play it safe seems incredibly defeatist. We aren't going to be with a high draft position again for a good while. Maximizing the pick at the top of the draft should be about finding future stars, not consolidating role players. We can do that just fine from the #20 pick. I could just as easily say You're making too little out of this draft. We aren't picking #8 any more, lets not draft as if we are.

[hands11]

sfam

I know it was a long post so maybe it was hard to digest all that was in there. But I don't think I said no one at #3 would have an impact in the league.

I guess in a nut shell I was trying to say, I think that because there isn't the quality at the top of this draft that we would normally see in a top 5, that people are making more of the players at the top then they really are. And because of team fit in the draft, I think Burke is getting less valued then he should be. Burke is a top 5 talent in this draft. Its just not a lot of those top drafting teams need a PG.

This is not an ideal time to have a top 5 pick.

I personally also think we have our starters set. So the combination of those two things is really bad timing.

If I wanted to keep what they have rolling and use the top pick straight up, go with Len or Noel. They fit right in and you can resign Okafor for two year and at the right time, you make the transition. Len would obviously be ready to produce before Noel and he is bigger with more offensive skills, so you pick Len.

If you don't evaluate Len to be that player, address the teams next biggest weakness, Beal injury protection and a scoring back up SG... That McLemore or VO Both fit right in without putting pressure on the roster regarding changing starters or anything. Wall and Beal are the franchise. Everyone knows that.

Or Wall insurance and a back up PG, thats Burke.

But any of Burke, McLemore or VO would likely get traded in a year or two. Which is fine. Its over spending to use your #3 for a back up, but those players would retain value that can get cashed in later for a trade and also help a ton next year.

So no, I am not undervaluing the draft. I am just constructing an approach that has what I believe to be the least chance of screwing things up, while also helping the team the best right away and maintaining that #3s value for the future when it becomes more clear what is the next right piece to add.

We have 2 quality experienced SF already, we don't need Otto or Bennett.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

http://www.monumentalnetwork.com/videos ... /index.jsp
http://www.monumentalnetwork.com/videos ... /index.jsp
Watching Porter, he's more athletic than he lets on. He's sneaky. Crafty.

He shows in those workout vids he has above the rim ability. He's old school with the layups, but he's got a gracefulness and a knack for separating the defender from the ball with his body, and he's got such a long extention. He's getting a lot more and-1's than rejections with that.

He needs to get stronger, but he's got such a high release on his jumper and hook, as well as that Jamison-esque runner, he'll be able to score anywhere on the court off the bat. I had concerns about his range out to the NBA 3, but his deep ball looked smooth and comfortable in that workout.

His defense is what separates him.

His mentality is what locks it for me.

I love the way he fits in personality wise with this team... Wall, Beal, Okafor, Nene, Webster, Price, Temple, Booker. I like the mental makeup of this team, and I like the foundation of Wall, Beal, and Porter to build on.

Porter and Murphy. Keep it simple.

Oh and here's a high school game of Porter's with some throw downs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESJUP9ebW4w