2013-2014 Wizard's lineup

[hands11]

The Bullets Forever article makes a lot of sense, but there's one big reason to keep Webster on the bench - other than defense - Webster's a bit better scorer than Ariza, and they desperately need some scoring off the bench. Let's see how it works out with Ariza in the starting lineup. Another thing to consider - he's more motivated this year - as he's going to be playing for a contract. And a 3rd factor - Who's the better player? Imo, Ariza is better all-around - when focused. I think the Wiz are making the right choice on this one.

Well for that to work, Webster is going to have to expand his game. Part of what allowed him to do what he does was being out there with Wall, Beal or both.

The team needs another outside shooter in that 2nd unit for Webster to shine. And it needs something more then what Maynor has been providing unless Webster become more of a creator. AH can help, but AH is not Beal and Maynor is not Wall.

Glen or Temple are going to have to start hitting from outside.

[DCZards]

The Bullets Forever article makes a lot of sense, but there's one big reason to keep Webster on the bench - other than defense - Webster's a bit better scorer than Ariza, and they desperately need some scoring off the bench. Let's see how it works out with Ariza in the starting lineup. Another thing to consider - he's more motivated this year - as he's going to be playing for a contract. And a 3rd factor - Who's the better player? Imo, Ariza is better all-around - when focused. I think the Wiz are making the right choice on this one.

I think it's smart to start Ariza. He's one of the best defensive wing players in the game and starting him will give the Zards an important defensive mindset from the start of the game...not to mention someone to guard the opposing team's SF, who is often a top scorer. And being able to then bring Webster off the bench to be the primary scorer on the second unit makes starting Ariza a win-win, IMO.

[GhostsOfGil]

People act like our bench is a set 5. I'm sure Wit will stagger the line up, so that one of B W N, will be out there with the back ups.

[Dat2U]

The Bullets Forever article makes a lot of sense, but there's one big reason to keep Webster on the bench - other than defense - Webster's a bit better scorer than Ariza, and they desperately need some scoring off the bench. Let's see how it works out with Ariza in the starting lineup. Another thing to consider - he's more motivated this year - as he's going to be playing for a contract. And a 3rd factor - Who's the better player? Imo, Ariza is better all-around - when focused. I think the Wiz are making the right choice on this one.

Doesn't make any sense to me. Why? Because Webster is not a shot creator. He's a better shooter than Ariza but not necessarily a better scorer. Webster needs a Wall assist as much as Ariza does. I agree with Bulletsforever, it's a classic over-thinking of the situation (typical of those in positions of authority with the Wizards). Wall, Beal & Webster had such a great synergy last season. Why break that up? Any defensive gains made by Ariza's presence in the starting lineup will be offset by the offensive decline in the starting lineup and inevitable decline in Webster's play by being forced to create his own shot without Wall next to him.

[nate33]

There is definitely a statistical foundation for Wittman's decision to start Ariza. The key is that Ariza was a pretty good player when alongside Wall and a horrifically bad player without Wall. Webster, on the other hand, was pretty much the same player whether or not Wall was on the floor. Here are the numbers:

Ariza with Wall:
eFG = .599
TS% = .625
Pts/36 = 15.1

Ariza without Wall:
eFG = .421
TS% = .463
Pts/36 = 11.2

Webster with Wall:
eFG = .562
TS% = .601
Pts/36 = 14.7

Webster without Wall:
eFG = .541
TS% = .597
Pts/36 = 13.8

Sample size is an issue though.

Another consideration is that by starting Ariza, we maximize the amount of time Ariza shares the floor with the opponent's best wing player, so that Ariza can defend him.

[dobrojim]

I don't see this as definitive in either direction until we try it
for a while. Nate's point about TA defending the other team's best
wing is a good one though. This decision could be a flexible one where
when the extra D looks to be more decisive, we always go to TA. When
shooting corner 3s is what is called for, MW. Overall, they'll both play
similar minutes so beyond something for us to argue about/discuss,
it probably won't amount to much either way.

[rockymac52]

I think part of it is also what's in the best interest for the team's chemistry/attitude. In Ariza's 2013 exit interview, I recall him saying something along the lines of "Well, I'm still a starter, I just have to keep that in mind, I'm a starter, so it's all good." My interpretation was that being in the starting lineup is really important to Ariza, for whatever reasons. Meanwhile, on the other hand, Webster is the ultimate team player, and he's made it very clear that he's more than happy to come off the bench if it helps the team. Starting Ariza over Webster definitely seems like a good way to keep both Ariza and Webster happy, which is hard to quantify the value of, but it's gotta be worth something.

Some of you are also forgetting that Wall and Beal will be on the court about 75% of the time, whereas Ariza, Webster, and Porter are probably closer to only 50% of the time or less. So Webster will still get some playing time alongside Wall and Beal.

This also probably helps maintain or increase Ariza's trade value.

[rockymac52]

Another thing that a lot of you seem to be forgetting is that Webster is probably our primary backup SG this season.

Beal figures to average 30-32 MPG, all at SG. That leaves 16-18 MPG at SG. In theory, those minutes could be split between Rice and Temple, but I personally don't think Temple will be in the active rotation on most nights, and the same could very well be true for Rice.

Sure, the Wizards like to talk up their positional flexibility, and Porter and/or Ariza COULD theoretically play SG, but I don't think that's ideal for either of them, and I don't expect them to play SG very often this year. Webster, on the other hand, is the logical choice for backup SG, since he's much more of a SG than Porter and Ariza are.

So if Webster's playing 14-18 MPG at SG when Beal is on the bench, then that leaves only 6-14 MPG for Webster at SF (depending on how many minutes you think he'll play total). Therefore, the MAXIMUM amount of court time that Beal and Webster can share is that 6-14 minutes.

Since our best lineup clearly has Wall/Beal/Webster at the 1, 2, and 3, I would expect/hope that they would typically all be in the game at the end of the 4th quarter. Classic case of it's not who starts the game, but who finishes it. If we start Webster, then we're not going to be able to have him in at the end of the game when it matters most, because there simply aren't enough minutes to go around.

[GhostsOfGil]

So Wit is sticking with Ariza (the guy with no future on this team). Does that mean our 3rd pick gets push down the rotation or the guy we just gave 22 million dollars to?

[jivelikenice]

My issue with Ariza starting is his road shooting and our road struggles. Bad combo. At home I'm perfectly fine with it. In regards to Otto, who knows....this might be a long-term plan to get Martell used to this role with the idea that Otto slides into Ariza's starting role eventually.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The Bullets Forever article makes a lot of sense, but there's one big reason to keep Webster on the bench - other than defense - Webster's a bit better scorer than Ariza, and they desperately need some scoring off the bench. Let's see how it works out with Ariza in the starting lineup. Another thing to consider - he's more motivated this year - as he's going to be playing for a contract. And a 3rd factor - Who's the better player? Imo, Ariza is better all-around - when focused. I think the Wiz are making the right choice on this one.

Doesn't make any sense to me. Why? Because Webster is not a shot creator. He's a better shooter than Ariza but not necessarily a better scorer. Webster needs a Wall assist as much as Ariza does. I agree with Bulletsforever, it's a classic over-thinking of the situation (typical of those in positions of authority with the Wizards). Wall, Beal & Webster had such a great synergy last season. Why break that up? Any defensive gains made by Ariza's presence in the starting lineup will be offset by the offensive decline in the starting lineup and inevitable decline in Webster's play by being forced to create his own shot without Wall next to him.

I would have no problems with the Wizards going small, starting both Webster and Ariza at the forwards with Nene at C.

In 2004, the Suns won 62 games with the following lineup: Steve Nash, Joe Johnson, Quentin Richardson, Shawn Marion, Amare Stoudemire. More impressively, they won 54 games the next season starting Nash, Leandro Barbosa, Shawn Marion, Kurt Thomas, Boris Diaw. That small lineup almost made it to the NBA finals. http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/PHO/2006.html

It seems to me Washington has abundantly good wing players, and I'd include both Temple and Rice to this list.

I think the Wizards should try to find ways to use Beal at PG, plus each of Temple, Rice, and Webster at SG. Their best bet at the moment is to not wear down Nene too much and go small with each of Ariza, Porter, and Chris Singleton playing PF. This team will need to run, defend the wings, and shoot the heck out of the three ball in order to win.

A team with Wall, Beal, Webster, Ariza, and Nene/Seraphin/Vesely/Harrington can win by spacing the court and forcing a ton of bad match ups. They'll get destroyed inside and on the boards, but at the same time teams will have a hard time matching their speed.

If Rice Jr and Harrington are efficient enough, and if the Wizards get the same lively play they got out of Seraphin/Vesely yesterday; this team won't suck if they play small. Nene is not going to last at C, but I think this year's Seraphin is fast enough to score on anybody at C.

Ariza starting is a problem when it negates all the good Webster does. However, Ariza and Webster actually played quite well together last season. I see nothing wrong with playing Ariza at PF and Harrington at C, quite a bit this season.

[Nivek]

Mostly agree, CCJ. I've thought all off-season that the Wizards' best option at stretch 4 was Ariza. I continue to think he'll be a better option at S4 than Harrington.

I don't think I'd use Harrington at C much (if at all) despite the team having basically no options there after Nene. (Which is one of the reasons why the Maynor signing still rankles so much. Use the BAE on Blair and they have a competent reserve at both 4 and 5.)

Sigh.

I guess I'd rather they use Harrington at C than Seraphin. Gotta pair him with Booker for rebounding.

Of course, the front court situation would improve a bit if they could trade for Faried. Then, I'd start Faried with Nene, and bring Booker off the bench as a sub at both PF and C with Ariza getting some minutes as an S4.

It's not ideal, but...well...it is a roster constructed by Grunfeld.

[hands11]

There is definitely a statistical foundation for Wittman's decision to start Ariza. The key is that Ariza was a pretty good player when alongside Wall and a horrifically bad player without Wall. Webster, on the other hand, was pretty much the same player whether or not Wall was on the floor. Here are the numbers:

Ariza with Wall:
eFG = .599
TS% = .625
Pts/36 = 15.1

Ariza without Wall:
eFG = .421
TS% = .463
Pts/36 = 11.2

Webster with Wall:
eFG = .562
TS% = .601
Pts/36 = 14.7

Webster without Wall:
eFG = .541
TS% = .597
Pts/36 = 13.8

Sample size is an issue though.

Another consideration is that by starting Ariza, we maximize the amount of time Ariza shares the floor with the opponent's best wing player, so that Ariza can defend him.

How did Wall look depending on which was out there? But its really more about 5 man line ups then just whats best for Trevor A.

Guess we are just going to have to see. Sadly they don't have a lot of time to figure this out. The season is here. What concerns me is seeing them get off to poor starts just like last year. You can't allow that game after game.

[hands11]

My issue with Ariza starting is his road shooting and our road struggles. Bad combo. At home I'm perfectly fine with it. In regards to Otto, who knows....this might be a long-term plan to get Martell used to this role with the idea that Otto slides into Ariza's starting role eventually.

That could be a reason. But we don't even have an eta on Otto's return and he is way behind the curve. More likely he comes in off the bench.

One of these years we are going to enter the season knowing what rotation work instead of figuring it out during the year.

[hands11]

The Bullets Forever article makes a lot of sense, but there's one big reason to keep Webster on the bench - other than defense - Webster's a bit better scorer than Ariza, and they desperately need some scoring off the bench. Let's see how it works out with Ariza in the starting lineup. Another thing to consider - he's more motivated this year - as he's going to be playing for a contract. And a 3rd factor - Who's the better player? Imo, Ariza is better all-around - when focused. I think the Wiz are making the right choice on this one.

Doesn't make any sense to me. Why? Because Webster is not a shot creator. He's a better shooter than Ariza but not necessarily a better scorer. Webster needs a Wall assist as much as Ariza does. I agree with Bulletsforever, it's a classic over-thinking of the situation (typical of those in positions of authority with the Wizards). Wall, Beal & Webster had such a great synergy last season. Why break that up? Any defensive gains made by Ariza's presence in the starting lineup will be offset by the offensive decline in the starting lineup and inevitable decline in Webster's play by being forced to create his own shot without Wall next to him.

I would have no problems with the Wizards going small, starting both Webster and Ariza at the forwards with Nene at C.

In 2004, the Suns won 62 games with the following lineup: Steve Nash, Joe Johnson, Quentin Richardson, Shawn Marion, Amare Stoudemire. More impressively, they won 54 games the next season starting Nash, Leandro Barbosa, Shawn Marion, Kurt Thomas, Boris Diaw. That small lineup almost made it to the NBA finals. http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/PHO/2006.html

It seems to me Washington has abundantly good wing players, and I'd include both Temple and Rice to this list.

I think the Wizards should try to find ways to use Beal at PG, plus each of Temple, Rice, and Webster at SG. Their best bet at the moment is to not wear down Nene too much and go small with each of Ariza, Porter, and Chris Singleton playing PF. This team will need to run, defend the wings, and shoot the heck out of the three ball in order to win.

A team with Wall, Beal, Webster, Ariza, and Nene/Seraphin/Vesely/Harrington can win by spacing the court and forcing a ton of bad match ups. They'll get destroyed inside and on the boards, but at the same time teams will have a hard time matching their speed.

If Rice Jr and Harrington are efficient enough, and if the Wizards get the same lively play they got out of Seraphin/Vesely yesterday; this team won't suck if they play small. Nene is not going to last at C, but I think this year's Seraphin is fast enough to score on anybody at C.

Ariza starting is a problem when it negates all the good Webster does. However, Ariza and Webster actually played quite well together last season. I see nothing wrong with playing Ariza at PF and Harrington at C, quite a bit this season.

Funny. I forgot all about that. That was actually who I thought would start. But we didn't see that even once the entire preseason.

[hands11]

Wall/Manyor/Temple
Beal/Temple/Glen
Trevor A/Webster/Otto
Nene/AH/Booker/Ves
Gortat/Kevin/Ves

Well now they have more options again. They can go tradition big or play small ball if needed.
And they get Nene back to PF and they can rest him more.
AH can also get more rest when needed.

Now they only are waiting on Otto to get healthy. Glen can cover at SF if needed. He kind of has a SFs game. So no real rush for Otto.

Thats a pretty big starting line up. Actually, its a pretty big team. And they have some runners.

IDK boys and girls. That team right there could really give some teams some trouble and no reason for them to get off to a slow start anymore.

[hands11]

Shooting Charts

Gortat
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ar_id=2012

Nene
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ting/2012/

Okafor
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ting/2013/

Also, I wonder if this puts Webster back in the starting line up or do they leave Trevor A where he is to showcase him as a starter.

[JWizmentality]

Shooting Charts

Gortat
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ar_id=2012

Nene
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ting/2012/

Okafor
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ting/2013/

Also, I wonder if this puts Webster back in the starting line up or do they leave Trevor A where he is to showcase him as a starter.

I hope Webster gets the job back, but I dunno with Whitman. I wouldn't be surprised to see Nene at Center come Wednesday.

[dckingsfan]

Yep, I think that we will see Gortat/Nene starting. And Gortat isn't a terrible FT shooter so we may see him in with Nene to finish games as well.

Wall/Beal are going to start - so that does leave us with the Webster/Ariza controversy (manufactured or not).

Wall/Beal/Webster/Ariza/Nene/Gortat/Harrington are all arguably legit NBA players. I guess you could argue Booker as well. Seraphin is going to get minutes - that is just Wittman's way. Notice there are only two guards in that group? I guess Webster is a guard too...

I think that Maynor is going to play himself out of a job. I think that is the weak link.

One can hope that Rice and Porter come along and join that group... that would be tremendously helpful.

[doclinkin]

A minor thing I like is that with both Nene and and Gortat showing something of a face-up game (or leastways able to hit a wide-open jumper from the freethrow line or elbow) we can get a little more room along the baseline and under the basket for players to attack from the wings. Veseley actually can play the role he did in Europe, as that Crash-forward swooping in from out of the picture to finish an alley oop. But Ariza, Webster, Rice, maybe even Booker, all can benefit. And Wall has room to slash to the basket and finish, making his drive and kick, drive and dish game even more troublesome for opponents to solve.

Nene and Gortat look like they will play well off each other, and even in substitution for each other with little drop-off from one to the other. Gortat next to Seraphin is a bruising possibility. And Marcin sets a pick like a sack of cement mix. If Beal is running a Rip pattern past a double screen, or John runs full speed in a Pick and Roll set, players are going to know they've been picked.

Gortat's numbers took a hit playing on a hapless PHX team, but his rebounding totals should climb with Nene boxing out for him, as did Okafor's.

If Seraphin can consistently show the rebounding and defensive improvement he flashed in pre-season then this team has some serious beef in the frontcourt.

Wall, Beal, Ariza, Nene, Gortat is a tough defensive problem to handle. Wall and Beal rebound well for their size, Ariza and Nene challenge the perimeter, Nene and Gortat make smart rotations underneath. We may see some drop-off from Okafor, but Gortat is legitimately bigger and is also a work-out demon. Strong, solid.

And I like the chemistry of players like Harrington and Gortat add to this locker room. We lose a quiet leader in Okafor but pick up a more vocal version of the same player in Gortat. Starters to bench we're pretty easy to pull for: good attitude, hard workers who have a sense of humor (Martell, Harrington). All seem to be grinders, no primadonnas or mopers, they love the game, period. Should be fun to watch, on the floor and in interviews.