Political Roundtable Part XXV

[nate33]

With how unpopular Trump has gotten in PA, MI, and WI, I think any Dem nominee will be able to win those states. The Dems did really well in all 3 in 2018.

I think NV and CO will vote blue because of POTUS being so unpopular.

Trump remains very popular with his base, and plenty of independents agree with his policies even if they don't like his style. It is far from certain that Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania will go to the Democrat, particularly if the Democrat can't get out the black vote in Philly, Detroit and Milwaukee.

[I_Like_Dirt]

I think Bernie since losing his first POTUS bid is reaching out to the black community and has made inroads within the Democratic Party. But the resistance is real.

I think this is fair. I also think he's tried to reach out to women, too. The problem is that his attempts come out garbled and that's generally interpreted as him forcing himself to do something he doesn't believe in all that much. And whatever efforts he makes, his supporters often wind up undoing for him. It's going to be a major uphill battle for him in that respect. And Bernie, of all the candidates, has had decades to refine his message and understand who it does and doesn't speak to and why. That he's only now making muddled attempts to remedy those issues is concerning and doesn't particularly engender a strong belief that he's going to be particularly adaptable. Then again, his most devoted of supporters don't actually want adaptable. That's one of the many interesting parallels between him and Trump.

Of all the candidates so far, I think Harris is the best bet. We will see, though. It's a marathon, not a sprint. Bernie is probably going to raise the most money by a mile simply because of the devotion of his core supporters.

[FAH1223]

With how unpopular Trump has gotten in PA, MI, and WI, I think any Dem nominee will be able to win those states. The Dems did really well in all 3 in 2018.

I think NV and CO will vote blue because of POTUS being so unpopular.

Trump remains very popular with his base, and plenty of independents agree with his policies even if they don't like his style. It is far from certain that Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania will go to the Democrat, particularly if the Democrat can't get out the black vote in Philly, Detroit and Milwaukee.

You're absolutely right. But I think Dems are fired up and removing Trump is one thing that will drive turnout.

I don't think the Dems will have a weak candidate like Hillary. She didn't go to Milwaukee after the primaries and her campaign made late stops in Michigan. They completely discounted the midwest and thought they could win Georgia or Arizona.

[TGW]

it's over dckings! Sanders should drop out now!

Trying to win the Democratic ticket without much minority or female support is going to be an uphill battle. Does he have what it takes to reach out to them and demonstrate that he actually cares about those causes rather than simply paying them lip service? We will see. He made it pretty clear to a lot of women's rights advocates that he was okay compromising their cause for his own. The Bernie Bros network isn't always the most inclusive in the end. We will see.

Come on... TGW not inclusive?

Read on Twitter

And because I think it's funny that a bunch of old white people are telling me, a black person who actually has black friends and black family members, that Sanders doesn't have minority support:

Last spring, a Harvard-Harris poll found Sanders to be the most popular active politician in the country. African Americans gave the senator the highest favorables at 73 percent — vs. 68 percent among Latinos, 62 percent among Asian Americans and 52 percent among white voters. It wasn’t a fluke: This August, black voters again reported a 73 percent favorability rating for Sanders.Critics, such as Starr, continue to point to the senator’s 2016 primary numbers among older African American voters to claim that his message somehow doesn’t resonate with people of color as a whole — and continue to ignore that, according to GenForward, Sanders won the black millennial vote in the primaries.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/09/12/its-time-to-end-the-myth-that-black-voters-dont-like-bernie-sanders/?utm_term=.542b43c7586b

As for the "lack of women support":

All things considered, these actual numbers cut against a lot of online narratives. Sanders is more popular with women than with men, and more popular with people of color than with whites — it’s the normal pattern of support for progressive politics in America and no sign of “Bernie Bros” running amok.

https://www.vox.com/2018/12/19/18148681/joe-biden-bernie-sanders-approval-rating

But keep going, guys, Keep spreading the bull. Won't change the fact that BS raised $6M in one day and is going to win the Democratic primary in a landslide.

[montestewart]

Trying to win the Democratic ticket without much minority or female support is going to be an uphill battle. Does he have what it takes to reach out to them and demonstrate that he actually cares about those causes rather than simply paying them lip service? We will see. He made it pretty clear to a lot of women's rights advocates that he was okay compromising their cause for his own. The Bernie Bros network isn't always the most inclusive in the end. We will see.

Come on... TGW not inclusive?

Read on Twitter

And because I think it's funny that a bunch of old white people are telling me, a black person who actually has black friends and black family members, that Sanders doesn't have minority support:

Last spring, a Harvard-Harris poll found Sanders to be the most popular active politician in the country. African Americans gave the senator the highest favorables at 73 percent — vs. 68 percent among Latinos, 62 percent among Asian Americans and 52 percent among white voters. It wasn’t a fluke: This August, black voters again reported a 73 percent favorability rating for Sanders.Critics, such as Starr, continue to point to the senator’s 2016 primary numbers among older African American voters to claim that his message somehow doesn’t resonate with people of color as a whole — and continue to ignore that, according to GenForward, Sanders won the black millennial vote in the primaries.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/09/12/its-time-to-end-the-myth-that-black-voters-dont-like-bernie-sanders/?utm_term=.542b43c7586b

As for the "lack of women support":

All things considered, these actual numbers cut against a lot of online narratives. Sanders is more popular with women than with men, and more popular with people of color than with whites — it’s the normal pattern of support for progressive politics in America and no sign of “Bernie Bros” running amok.

https://www.vox.com/2018/12/19/18148681/joe-biden-bernie-sanders-approval-rating

But keep going, guys, Keep spreading the bull. Won't change the fact that BS raised $6M in one day and is going to win the Democratic primary in a landslide.

Yes, it has seemed for some time that there is a divide between spokespeople for various interest groups (particularly blacks and women) and rank and file prospective voters. I know quite a few blacks women, black women, who appear to be avid Sanders reporters and are judging him more for his stated policy goals more than his style. I don't think most of these people are unrealistic either. The ones I know recognize that if he wins, his stated goals will likely be modified to reflect the reality of winning support, and also that if he loses, their best bet would be to support whichever candidate wins the Democratic nomination.

[FAH1223]

What happens first: Bernie Sanders becoming President or Ernie Grunfeld getting fired?

[gtn130]

Sanders will certainly appeal to the liberal white vote from the Northeast and Midwest, but can he turn out the vote from blacks and Hispanics in the South and Southeast? I don't think so.

It'll be interesting. I don't think Sanders can win Florida, North Carolina, Georgia or Arizona, but then, he might not have to. If he can win Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, that might be enough. It might come down to Wisconsin. If Trump wins it, it could be 269-269.

I'm curious how Sanders would do in Colorado and Nevada. They're pretty consistently blue these days, but they're certainly not socialist.

Sanders didn't appeal to black and latino voters in 2016 because they didn't know who he was.

[gtn130]

I don't see any reason to make any proclamations about Bernie (or anyone) based on 2016 results. Hillary isn't running. The primary isn't Hillary vs Bernie.

If Bernie wins the nomination, he'll be going against Trump in 2020, not in 2016.

[nate33]

Trying to win the Democratic ticket without much minority or female support is going to be an uphill battle. Does he have what it takes to reach out to them and demonstrate that he actually cares about those causes rather than simply paying them lip service? We will see. He made it pretty clear to a lot of women's rights advocates that he was okay compromising their cause for his own. The Bernie Bros network isn't always the most inclusive in the end. We will see.

Come on... TGW not inclusive?

Read on Twitter

And because I think it's funny that a bunch of old white people are telling me, a black person who actually has black friends and black family members, that Sanders doesn't have minority support:

Last spring, a Harvard-Harris poll found Sanders to be the most popular active politician in the country. African Americans gave the senator the highest favorables at 73 percent — vs. 68 percent among Latinos, 62 percent among Asian Americans and 52 percent among white voters. It wasn’t a fluke: This August, black voters again reported a 73 percent favorability rating for Sanders.Critics, such as Starr, continue to point to the senator’s 2016 primary numbers among older African American voters to claim that his message somehow doesn’t resonate with people of color as a whole — and continue to ignore that, according to GenForward, Sanders won the black millennial vote in the primaries.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/09/12/its-time-to-end-the-myth-that-black-voters-dont-like-bernie-sanders/?utm_term=.542b43c7586b

As for the "lack of women support":

All things considered, these actual numbers cut against a lot of online narratives. Sanders is more popular with women than with men, and more popular with people of color than with whites — it’s the normal pattern of support for progressive politics in America and no sign of “Bernie Bros” running amok.

https://www.vox.com/2018/12/19/18148681/joe-biden-bernie-sanders-approval-rating

But keep going, guys, Keep spreading the bull. Won't change the fact that BS raised $6M in one day and is going to win the Democratic primary in a landslide.

Very interesting, TGW. Thanks.

[DCZards]

Sanders will certainly appeal to the liberal white vote from the Northeast and Midwest, but can he turn out the vote from blacks and Hispanics in the South and Southeast? I don't think so.

It'll be interesting. I don't think Sanders can win Florida, North Carolina, Georgia or Arizona, but then, he might not have to. If he can win Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, that might be enough. It might come down to Wisconsin. If Trump wins it, it could be 269-269.

I'm curious how Sanders would do in Colorado and Nevada. They're pretty consistently blue these days, but they're certainly not socialist.

Sanders didn't appeal to black and latino voters in 2016 because they didn't know who he was.

You are absolutely right about black and latino voters not having any idea who Sanders was when he started his presidential run in 2016. About midway through the 2016 Dem primary, I remember reading an article in the Wash. Post that said that black voters were increasingly supporting Sanders as they learned more about him and his policies. But it was too little to late.

Sanders will have much more support from black and latino voters from the outset this time around.

I love the fact that Sanders (a Jew) has hired a Muslim-American to head up his effort to take down the bigot in the White House.

But I'm not convinced that Bernie is the best standard bearer for the Dem Party. I currently lean Biden but that could change.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Yes, it has seemed for some time that there is a divide between spokespeople for various interest groups (particularly blacks and women) and rank and file prospective voters. I know quite a few blacks women, black women, who appear to be avid Sanders reporters and are judging him more for his stated policy goals more than his style. I don't think most of these people are unrealistic either. The ones I know recognize that if he wins, his stated goals will likely be modified to reflect the reality of winning support, and also that if he loses, their best bet would be to support whichever candidate wins the Democratic nomination.

Oh, I agree. I mean, there are minorities who support Trump, too. This isn't some sort of homogenous population or anything. Fair or not Bernie does have issues with garnering support from women and minorities on average. Most of them are going to wind up voting for whoever wins the nomination regardless. The issue is the potential for hurt feelings. Let's just say Bernie's supporters weren't exactly the most gracious in defeat last time. It isn't even totally about Bernie. It's the people he's drawn to support him. It just takes a few to stay home. Or even if they don't stay home, the costs can sometimes outweigh any potential gains. People who see the parallels between Bernie's supporters and Trump's aren't going to be particularly happy about being put in a place where they have to choose the lesser of two evils. It's the kind of recipe that results in complacency across the board. Honestly, it isn't so far off what Bernie's supporters were feeling with Hillary on the ticket. The margin for error isn't as big as Ds sometimes want to believe it is.

And to be honest, I actually think Bernie is going to have to shift his talking points away from education and health care and towards environmental issues. He's already doing that a bit, but there are more than a few forces at play here. And to win the nomination, fair or not, Bernie's supporters (if not necessarily Bernie himself) are almost a sure bet to go on the attack against other candidates. That's going to be a big problem that comes at an unnecessary cost. Bernie and Hillary actually played reasonably nice with each other during the last campaign. Bernie's supporters create a certain cap for him amongst a lot of the general population.

As for Sanders being more popular amongst women than men and minorities than otherwise, I'd love to see those numbers contrasted with other potential Dem candidates. I suspect you'd see a lot of those trends given who tends to support the Ds and who tends to support the Rs.

Sanders didn't appeal to black and latino voters in 2016 because they didn't know who he was.

I mean, if they didn't know who he was then, do they really know who he is now? And if they've learned more about him, do they necessarily like what they've seen relative other potential Dem candidates.

[popper]

As I mentioned before, I think it will come down to who scares suburban voters (especially women) more, Trump or D nominee. There’s no question the midterms revealed a deep fear and disgust with Trump. It’s D’s election to lose IMO.

[TGW]

But I'm not convinced that Bernie is the best standard bearer for the Dem Party. I currently lean Biden but that could change.

You my dawg, Zards, but why?

Biden is the same guy who argued this:

But 44 years ago, facing a backlash against busing from white voters, the future vice president voiced concerns not just about the policy of busing, which he had supported when first seeking election in 1972, but about the impact of desegregation on American society. He argued that segregation was good for blacks and was what they wanted.

“I think the concept of busing … that we are going to integrate people so that they all have the same access and they learn to grow up with one another and all the rest, is a rejection of the whole movement of black pride,” said Biden. Desegregation, he argued, was “a rejection of the entire black awareness concept, where black is beautiful, black culture should be studied; and the cultural awareness of the importance of their own identity, their own individuality.”

The guy literally argued for segregation. Whether his reasoning is legitimate or not is up to you, but I tend not to give Biden the benefit of the doubt, especially when he also said this:

"I think the Democratic Party could stand a liberal George Wallace — someone who's not afraid to stand up and offend people, someone who wouldn't pander but would say what the American people know in their gut is right,” Biden told the Philadelphia Enquirer on Oct. 12, 1975, referring to the racist then-Alabama governor.

and also:

you cannot go to a 7-Eleven or a Dunkin' Donuts [in Delaware] unless you have a slight Indian accent.

The guy also defended George Byrd, who was a member of the KKK. Biden loved the guy.

He heavily supported the 1993 crime bill. Stumped hard for it.

There's a helluva lot of smoke around Biden (we won't talk about his abysmal foreign policy record).

[DCZards]

But I'm not convinced that Bernie is the best standard bearer for the Dem Party. I currently lean Biden but that could change.

You my dawg, Zards, but why?

Biden is the same guy who argued this:

But 44 years ago, facing a backlash against busing from white voters, the future vice president voiced concerns not just about the policy of busing, which he had supported when first seeking election in 1972, but about the impact of desegregation on American society. He argued that segregation was good for blacks and was what they wanted.

“I think the concept of busing … that we are going to integrate people so that they all have the same access and they learn to grow up with one another and all the rest, is a rejection of the whole movement of black pride,” said Biden. Desegregation, he argued, was “a rejection of the entire black awareness concept, where black is beautiful, black culture should be studied; and the cultural awareness of the importance of their own identity, their own individuality.”

The guy literally argued for segregation. Whether his reasoning is legitimate or not is up to you, but I tend not to give Biden the benefit of the doubt, especially when he also said this:

"I think the Democratic Party could stand a liberal George Wallace — someone who's not afraid to stand up and offend people, someone who wouldn't pander but would say what the American people know in their gut is right,” Biden told the Philadelphia Enquirer on Oct. 12, 1975, referring to the racist then-Alabama governor.

and also:

you cannot go to a 7-Eleven or a Dunkin' Donuts [in Delaware] unless you have a slight Indian accent.

The guy also defended George Byrd, who was a member of the KKK. Biden loved the guy.

He heavily supported the 1993 crime bill. Stumped hard for it.

There's a helluva lot of smoke around Biden (we won't talk about his abysmal foreign policy record).

This is indeed damaging stuff regarding Biden. Joe does have some 'splaining to do as it relates to some of this.

But goal #1 is beating #45...and right now Biden may be the only Dem capable of easily doing that. I'd support lucifer if I thought he could take down President Chump.

[payitforward]

Biden is the same guy who argued this:

But 44 years ago, facing a backlash against busing from white voters, the future vice president voiced concerns not just about the policy of busing, which he had supported when first seeking election in 1972, but about the impact of desegregation on American society. He argued that segregation was good for blacks and was what they wanted.

“I think the concept of busing … that we are going to integrate people so that they all have the same access and they learn to grow up with one another and all the rest, is a rejection of the whole movement of black pride,” said Biden. Desegregation, he argued, was “a rejection of the entire black awareness concept, where black is beautiful, black culture should be studied; and the cultural awareness of the importance of their own identity, their own individuality.”

Please point to the source document for the so-called "quotation" from Biden. The whole document. Lets see it.

The guy literally argued for segregation.

Well, actually that's not an argument for segregation. It's an argument that integration is "a rejection of... black pride." That claim is idiotic, but I have no particular reason to think Biden made the claim!

...he also said this:

"I think the Democratic Party could stand a liberal George Wallace — someone who's not afraid to stand up and offend people, someone who wouldn't pander but would say what the American people know in their gut is right,” Biden told the Philadelphia Enquirer on Oct. 12, 1975, referring to the racist then-Alabama governor.

Wow... what a load! What could he have meant by "a liberal George Wallace", do you think?

Perhaps you've also forgotten this https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-1995-03-11-1995070104-story.html

and also:

you cannot go to a 7-Eleven or a Dunkin' Donuts [in Delaware] unless you have a slight Indian accent.

Source?? You don't have one, do you...

The guy also defended George Byrd, who was a member of the KKK. Biden loved the guy.

He heavily supported the 1993 crime bill. Stumped hard for it.

There's a helluva lot of smoke around Biden....

What you mean is that somewhere there's an article, or some other kind of piece, written to attack Joe Biden. & that you think it's fine to quote from it as if it was truth without pointing a reader to your source.

In short, you'd like us to eat what the bull just shat. No thanks.

[payitforward]

I don't know what Democratic candidate I'd prefer in '20, but I am not particularly interested in either Biden or Sanders. They're both too old.

[Wizardspride]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

[pancakes3]

As I mentioned before, I think it will come down to who scares suburban voters (especially women) more, Trump or D nominee. There’s no question the midterms revealed a deep fear and disgust with Trump. It’s D’s election to lose IMO.

what about the dem's platform scares suburban voters? are you characterizing global warming, soaring education costs coupled with degree inflation, and a broken health care system as scary?

bc it's fairly obvious that trump's 2016 platform was built on demonizing hillary and terrorism/immigration scaremongering but i've never really heard dem platforms as scary.

genuinely curious, not being snarky.

edit: is russian probe scaremongering?

[payitforward]

How about we find a candidate (for either or any party) who supports this!

Watch on YouTube

[pancakes3]

i think that falls on its face bc homeless ppl don't behave as traditional rational consumers. between drug use and mental illness, cash influx cannot be the answer. otoh, i don't have any answers either.