2025 Draft Thread - Part 2

[payitforward]

double...

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Here's some new hot off the presses draft videos......

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[Dat2U]

Instead of just looking at 4 & 10 picks, tell me about the guys drafted 5 through 9 as well - so the whole picture is there. Then you can have a real discussion about pick value.

Pick a draft. Any draft.

How about 2018: 14 of the 21 players taken from 10-30 were better than the guys taken at 5, 6, 7, 8 & 9.

Maybe you'd prefer 2017: the guys taken at 4, 8 & 9 haven't been as good as at least 10 of the players taken in R1 after them. H$ll, they haven't been as good as the guy taken at 45 or the guy taken at 51.

2016 same story. 2015 same story. 2014 same story.... Get the drift?

2023 - Amen Thompson
2021 - Franz Wagner
2019 - Darius Garland

[DCZards]

This is the part of the draft I'm not a fan of. The yearly back-and-forth about which pick is more valuable when in reality it's all about who's making the pick & who's available. I don't care who was specifically drafted at 10 vs who was specficially drafted at 4. Why? It's incomplete picture unless I know who was also drafted between 5-9. Trading the 4th pick isn't just passing up on the 4th guy drafted. It's passing up options 4-9 if your trading down to 10. So 6 guys were removed from your board by trading down, not just one.

...which is why I’m perfectly fine with the Zards FO not trading 18 for 26 & 27 if they have a player or two that they’re high on…and know that those players won’t be there 8 and 9 picks later.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Here's a Wizards specific breakdown of the draft...

Watch on YouTube

[dckingsfan]

Maybe another variable to go along with the pick number is who is doing the picking?

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Maybe another variable to go along with the pick number is who is doing the picking?

RIght. Plus there is also the added issue of perceived value. 18 is a mid 1st round pick. Whereas 26 & 27 are late 1sts. In fact they are so late in the round they in essence are the equivalent of 2nd round picks. Is there really any difference between picking 26 & 27 and picking 32 & 33? The value of a mid 1st round pick is much higher and takes a lot more to obtain than 2nd rounders which are tossed around left and right as trade fillers or sold for cash.

2nd round picks are a dime a dozen, so why on earth would you trade a mid 1st round pick, which last season we parted with Deni Avdija to obtain a mid 1st round pick, so why would you trade a mid 1st for essentially 2 2nd round picks that could be easily acquired for cash considerations or some kind of future protected 2nds that could eventually become a ham sandwich with a side of crab chips.

[doclinkin]

Find me a single exception. You can't. Not one.

It's a silly exercise. The point is not to posit if the draft order has ever been perfectly predictive of player success, it's whether the upside of the highest players is generally found towards the top or the bottom of the draft. And whether the hit rate of success vs bust rate is higher at the top of the draft compared to lower down.

Here's another silly exercise that illustrates the point: Build the best team you can with players taken at any particular draft pick. Lets even make it fair by eliminating teams 1-3 since you say they are the outliers.

Team 4th pick:
Westbrook, Chris Paul, Stephon Marbury, Dikembe Mutombo, Rasheed Wallace, Chris Bosh, Antawn Jamison, Glen Rice, Lamar Odom, Sam Perkins, Byron Scott, The rifleman Chuck Person, Aaron Gordon, Kristaps Porzingis, Jaren Jackson, Scottie Barnes, Keegan Murray, Amen Thompson, Stephon Castle.

Team 5th pick:
Dwyane Wade, Vince Carter, Kevin Garnett, Scottie Pippen, Charles Barkley, Steve Smith, Mitch Richmond, Trae Young, DeMarcus Cousins, Kevin Love, Sidney Green, DeAaron Fox, Jonas Valanciunas, Mike Miller, Jason Richardson, Darius Garland, Tony Battie, Ricky Rubio, Juwan Howard, Kendall Gill, Isaiah Rider, JR Reid, Uncle Jeff Green. Ausar Thompson/Isaac Okoro/Jalen Suggs?

Team 6th pick:
Larry Bird, Adrian Dantley, Damian Lillard, Shane Battier, Wally Szcerbiak, Tom Gugliotta, Hersey Hawkins, Antoine Walker, Stacy King, Kenny the Jet Smith, Marcus Smart, Onyeka Okongwu, Brandon Roy, Danilo Gallinari, Buddy Hield, Josh Giddey?.

Team 7th pick:
Stef Curry, Richard Hamilton, Luol Deng, Walt Williams, KJ Kevin Johnson, Chris Mullin, Damon Stoudemire, Tim Thomas, Nene, Corey Brewer, Kirk Hinrich, Julius Randle, Jamal Murray, Lauri Markannen. (Bilal).

Team 8th:
Rudy Gay, Jamal Crawford, Channing Frye, Larry Hughes, Kerry Kittles, KCP, Detlef Shrempf, Ron Harper, Tom Chambers, Vin Baker, Rex Chapman, Olden Polynice, Andre Miller, KCP, Franz Wagner, Dyson Daniels,

Team 9th:
Dirk Nowitzki, Tracy McGrady, Amare Stoudemire, Dale Ellis, Shawn Marion, Andre Drummond, Kemba Walker, Gordon Hayward, Demarr Derozan, Joakim Noah, Andre Iguodala, Derrick McKey, Charles Oakley, Otis Thorpe. Zach Edey, (Hachimura. Avdija.)

Team 10th:
Paul George, Brandon Jennings, Brook Lopez, Paul Pierce, Joe Johnson, Caron Butler, Horace Grant, Jason Terry, Kurt Thomas, Erik Dampier, Eddie Jones, CJ McCollum, Mikal Bridges, Cason Wallace? (Johnny Davis. Jared Jeffries)

Team 11th:
SGA, Klay Thompson, JJ Redick, Bonzi Wells, Allan Houston, Robert Horry, Reggie Miller, Will Perdue, Kiki Vanderweghe, Myles Turner, Domantas Sabonis, Cam Johnson, Matas Buzelis?

Team 12th:
Tyrese Haliburton, Steven Adams, Mookie Blaylock, Greg Anthony, Vladomir Radmanovich, Nick Collison? Robert Swift? Gerald Henderson? Jalen WIlliams, Derek Lively.

Team 13th:
Kobe, Karl Malone, Dale Davis, Richard Jefferson, Jalen Rose, Corey Magette, Zach Lavine, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Tyler Herro, Jalen Duren.

Team 14th:
Tim Hardaway, Dan Majerle, Clyde Drexler, Peja Stojakovich

Team 15th:
Giannis, Kawhi, Steve Nash, Al Jefferson, Dell Curry. (Kelly Oubre, Corey Kispert)

Team 16
John Stockton, Ron Artest.

I'm sure I missed a few. Basketball reference took down their table of players by draft pick order, with the HOF score or win score of players selected at that pick. Having done this exercise before, it was clear that the deeper you go into the draft, the slimmer your chances of finding that guy with any particular pick. Many more misses than hits. Harder to field a contending team with Team 17 + Team 24 or whatever.

You can find useful picks at any particular slot on any given year. If and only if you are smarter than everyone else and manage to pick the absolute best player available at your draft slot. The PIF method of scouring a draft for a list of better players selected later is done with the unfair advantage of living in the future. You get to pick the best guys out of the entire pool of picks following. But unless you tabbed that guy on your personal draft board, you don't get to post-suppose that you would've had the savvy to select them.

One can argue that the declining % of finding a useful pick lower down are trivial. But evidence of the Hall of Famers above disagrees. There are still misses even at the top. But the studies I've read show the hit rate is higher, and the hits are hittier. I'd still love to see the study you cited that says different.

I'd be curious to see the best team you could field with any 2 draft picks after 15 . (I'd say 'post lottery' but Team 15 is a cheat code. No bench, but damn what starters).

[9 and 20]

Find me a single exception. You can't. Not one.

It's a silly exercise. The point is not to posit if the draft order has ever been perfectly predictive of player success, it's whether the upside of the highest players is generally found towards the top or the bottom of the draft. And whether the hit rate of success vs bust rate is higher at the top of the draft compared to lower down.

Here's another silly exercise that illustrates the point: Build the best team you can with players taken at any particular draft pick. Lets even make it fair by eliminating teams 1-3 since you say they are the outliers.

Team 4th pick:
Westbrook, Chris Paul, Stephon Marbury, Dikembe Mutombo, Rasheed Wallace, Chris Bosh, Antawn Jamison, Glen Rice, Lamar Odom, Sam Perkins, Byron Scott, The rifleman Chuck Person, Aaron Gordon, Kristaps Porzingis, Jaren Jackson, Scottie Barnes, Keegan Murray, Amen Thompson, Stephon Castle.

Team 5th pick:
Dwyane Wade, Vince Carter, Kevin Garnett, Scottie Pippen, Charles Barkley, Steve Smith, Mitch Richmond, Trae Young, DeMarcus Cousins, Kevin Love, Sidney Green, DeAaron Fox, Jonas Valanciunas, Mike Miller, Jason Richardson, Darius Garland, Tony Battie, Ricky Rubio, Juwan Howard, Kendall Gill, Isaiah Rider, JR Reid, Uncle Jeff Green. Ausar Thompson/Isaac Okoro/Jalen Suggs?

Team 6th pick:
Damian Lillard, Shane Battier, Wally Szcerbiak, Tom Gugliotta, Hersey Hawkins, Antoine Walker, Stacy King, Kenny the Jet Smith, Marcus Smart, Onyeka Okongwu, Brandon Roy, Danilo Gallinari, Buddy Hield, Josh Giddey?.

Team 7th pick:
Stef Curry, Richard Hamilton, Luol Deng, Walt Williams, KJ Kevin Johnson, Chris Mullin, Damon Stoudemire, Tim Thomas, Nene, Corey Brewer, Kirk Hinrich, Julius Randle, Jamal Murray, Lauri Markannen. (Bilal).

Team 8th:
Rudy Gay, Jamal Crawford, Channing Frye, Larry Hughes, Kerry Kittles, KCP, Detlef Shrempf, Ron Harper, Tom Chambers, Vin Baker, Rex Chapman, Olden Polynice, Andre Miller, KCP, Franz Wagner, Dyson Daniels,

Team 9th:
Dirk Nowitzki, Tracy McGrady, Amare Stoudemire, Dale Ellis, Shawn Marion, Andre Drummond, Kemba Walker, Gordon Hayward, Demarr Derozan, Joakim Noah, Andre Iguodala, Derrick McKey, Charles Oakley, Otis Thorpe. Zach Edey, (Hachimura. Avdija.)

Team 10th:
Paul George, Brandon Jennings, Brook Lopez, Paul Pierce, Joe Johnson, Caron Butler, Horace Grant, Jason Terry, Kurt Thomas, Erik Dampier, Eddie Jones, CJ McCollum, Mikal Bridges, Cason Wallace? (Johnny Davis. Jared Jeffries)

Team 11th:
SGA, Klay Thompson, JJ Redick, Bonzi Wells, Allan Houston, Robert Horry, Reggie Miller, Will Perdue, Kiki Vanderweghe, Myles Turner, Domantas Sabonis, Cam Johnson, Matas Buzelis?

Team 12th:
Tyrese Haliburton, Steven Adams, Mookie Blaylock, Greg Anthony, Vladomir Radmanovich, Nick Collison? Robert Swift? Gerald Henderson? Jalen WIlliams, Derek Lively.

Team 13th:
Kobe, Karl Malone, Dale Davis, Richard Jefferson, Jalen Rose, Corey Magette, Zach Lavine, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Tyler Herro, Jalen Duren.

Team 14th:
Tim Hardaway, Dan Majerle, Clyde Drexler, Peja Stojakovich

Team 15th:
Giannis, Kawhi, Steve Nash, Al Jefferson, Dell Curry. (Kelly Oubre, Corey Kispert)

Team 16
John Stockton, Ron Artest.

I'm sure I missed a few. Basketball reference took down their table of players by draft pick order, with the HOF score or win score of players selected at that pick. Having done this exercise before, it was clear that the deeper you go into the draft, the slimmer your chances of finding that guy with any particular pick. Many more misses than hits. Harder to field a contending team with Team 17 + Team 24 or whatever.

You can find useful picks at any particular slot on any given year. If and only if you are smarter than everyone else and manage to pick the absolute best player available at your draft slot. The PIF method of scouring a draft for a list of better players selected later is done with the unfair advantage of living in the future. You get to pick the best guys out of the entire pool of picks following. But unless you tabbed that guy on your personal draft board, you don't get to post-suppose that you would've had the savvy to select them.

One can argue that the declining % of finding a useful pick lower down are trivial. But evidence of the Hall of Famers above disagrees. There are still misses even at the top. But the studies I've ready and done show the hit rate is higher, and the hits are hittier. I'd still love to see the study you cited that says different.

I'd be curious to see the best team you could field with any 2 draft picks after 15 . (I'd say 'post lottery' but Team 15 is a cheat code. No bench, but damn what starters).

+1 for the effort that went into compiling this. Some of the guys who write on this throwaway message board for sad Wizards fans have really good, original insights that should be more widely shared.

Also team 8th pick is some garbage (my contributions, I know, are not all that insightful).

[payitforward]

Instead of just looking at 4 & 10 picks, tell me about the guys drafted 5 through 9 as well - so the whole picture is there. Then you can have a real discussion about pick value.

Pick a draft. Any draft.

How about 2018: 14 of the 21 players taken from 10-30 were better than the guys taken at 5, 6, 7, 8 & 9.

Maybe you'd prefer 2017: the guys taken at 4, 8 & 9 haven't been as good as at least 10 of the players taken in R1 after them. H$ll, they haven't been as good as the guy taken at 45 or the guy taken at 51.

2016 same story. 2015 same story. 2014 same story.... Get the drift?

2023 - Amen Thompson...

A great player, I agree. Taken at 4 & looks to be the 2d best guy out of that draft (after Wemby).
But. you are just making my point for me -- not suggesting evidence against it!
For example, so far at least, Amen looks to be a lot better than Scoot Henderson, who was taken before him. Better than Brandon Miller, also taken before him (tho I'm not suggesting those guys can't develop).

Of course, Derek Lively (taken at 11) also looks better than those 2 guys, doesn't he? & so does Jaime Jacquez (18). & Brandon Podziemski (19). Not to mention Jalen Wilson (51), Toumani Camara (52), & Trayce Jackson-Davis (57).

Every one of those guys looks better than Henderson &/or Miller.

2021 - Franz Wagner...

Once again, thanks for helping me out:

Wagner went at 8. The 5 guys taken right after him were Davion Mitchell, Ziaire Williams, James Bouknight, Joshua Primo & Chris Duarte.

How many of them as good as Alperen Sengun, Trey Murphy III, Jalen Johnson, Isaiah Jackson, Cam Thomas, Santi Aldama, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Herb Jones, Miles McBride, Ayo Dosunmu...?

None of them.

How many are as good as Aaron Wiggins, drafted #55 that year. Or Jericho Sims, taken w/ the 58th pick?

None of them.

2019 - Darius Garland

But... but... but... you keep making my point for me!

Who's better, Darius Garland or RJ Barrett?
Who's better, Darius Garland or DeAndre Hunter?

Cody Martin went at 36 that year. His twin brother Caleb was undrafted. OTOH, Jarrett Culver was taken at #6, Cam Reddish went at 10, Romeo Langford came off the board at 14, Sekou Doumouya was nabbed at 15, Chuma Okeke was the #16 pick, Luka Samanic came off the board at #19. Dylan Windler was taken at 26 & Mfiondu Kabengele heard his name called at 27.

Surely, Jarrett, Cam, Romeo, Sekou, Chuma, Luka, Dylan, & Mifondu must be far better NBA players than Caleb Martin! Right?

Give it up, Dat.

[DCZards]

[
For example, so far at least, Amen looks to be a lot better than Scoot Henderson, who was taken before him. Better than Brandon Miller, also taken before him (tho I'm not suggesting those guys can't develop).

Of course, Derek Lively (taken at 11) also looks better than those 2 guys, doesn't he? & so does Jaime Jacquez (18). & Brandon Podziemski (19). Not to mention Jalen Wilson (51), Toumani Camara (52), & Trayce Jackson-Davis (57).

Every one of those guys looks better than Henderson &/or Miller.

No GM is taking any of these players (other than Thompson) over Miller in a redraft, because none of them have his upside.

Numbers may not lie…but they can mislead….especially when you’re talking about a young player like Miller.

Two years ago, some here were calling Cade Cunningham a bust. (Were you one of them?) Now he’s about to make all-NBA.

BTW, Jacquez and Jackson-Davis don’t even see the court during the playoffs. So there is that.

[nate33]

PIF, you are not convincing anyone of anything.

We all acknowledge that there are late round successful picks. But they are less likely than successful lotto picks. You can cherry-pick late-round successful picks until you are blue in the face and it doesn't change the fact that lotto picks have higher odds of being successful.

The only caveat is that if you focus your analysis only on the 4 years a player is under his rookie contract, I wouldn't be surprised if late picks did better than early picks (or at least were closer to the success rate of early picks). That's because a lot of later picks are older and more NBA ready. But for the most part, we are looking for star players in the draft. And for a star player, your time horizon is beyond just the 4 years of a rookie contract because RFA rights allow you to keep your player as long as you are willing to pay.

[doclinkin]

I figured out how to bang BRef/Stathead into giving me the historical stats by draft pick. If you are a subscriber to stathead.com (ie total dork) you can do it this way:

--Basketball-reference.com: NBA Draft historical data, any year.
--Next to the player's name at any given draft slot, click the hypertext link of the 'Pk' column.
--It will open in stathead.com ranked by Win Shares. (If you're not already signed in it will give you only the first few players).

(If you really want to be a dork about it you can 'Edit the Search Criteria' to sort by descending VORP instead of Win Shares. I didn't do that)

Without going into a full rundown of teams, you can get a sense of the depth of the picks by looking at say the 25th best player picked at any given pick position.

Pick number. 25th best player at that draft pick. Win Shares.

--Number 1.--
1. Yao Ming. 65.9

--- Top 5---
2. Steve Francis 54.1
3. Mike Dunleavy 58.5
4. Antonio Daniels 47.0
5. Sam Lacey 50.9

--- Top 10---
6. Marcus Smart 34.2
7. Tim Thomas 35.2
8. Mike Bantom 34.8
9. Rony Seikaly 37.3
10. Lindsey Hunter 32.9

---Rest of lottery---
11. Will Perdue 26.6
12. Jack Nichols 23.8
13. Markieff Morris 27.3
14. John Henson 20.7

-- First round, 2nd half--
15. Mark Williams 9.7
16. Terry Teagle 13.4
17. Iman Shumpert 12.9
18. Goga Bitadze 14.9
19. Walter McCarty 13.8
20. Jason Caffey 13.5
21. Jayson Williams 20.0
22. Isaiah Jackson 7.7
23. Travis Outlaw 16.5
24. Monty Williams 11.4
25. Alaa Abdelnaby 4.8
26. Steve Alford 3.2
27. Dick Garrett 6.0
28. Fred Foster 2.9
29. D.J. White 3.8
30. Peyton Watson 5.3

There are standouts at every pick of course. If you pick lucky in the right year. But those standouts dwindle the deeper you go.

(Maybe on a 2nd pass I will edit those players in, to show how many or few there are. Or better yet. Best player, then next best player to see how big the gap is. If so. I'll put this post in the front of the HOF thread so I can find it again when we need it, so we don't have to argue this every year ).

But in general this should show how easy or tricky it is to find a high performing player at a given pick.

Scouting works. The professionals who have risen to the top of the sport often know what they are doing.
The best players are rarely surprises. If you are picking at the top of the draft it is easier to be smart. Easier to be lucky. Easier to make the right pick. Doesn't mean it is impossible lower down, just that the better picks have generally been selected earlier and are not on the board by then.

[Dat2U]

Pick a draft. Any draft.

How about 2018: 14 of the 21 players taken from 10-30 were better than the guys taken at 5, 6, 7, 8 & 9.

Maybe you'd prefer 2017: the guys taken at 4, 8 & 9 haven't been as good as at least 10 of the players taken in R1 after them. H$ll, they haven't been as good as the guy taken at 45 or the guy taken at 51.

2016 same story. 2015 same story. 2014 same story.... Get the drift?

2023 - Amen Thompson...

A great player, I agree. Taken at 4 & looks to be the 2d best guy out of that draft (after Wemby).
But. you are just making my point for me -- not suggesting evidence against it!
For example, so far at least, Amen looks to be a lot better than Scoot Henderson, who was taken before him. Better than Brandon Miller, also taken before him (tho I'm not suggesting those guys can't develop).

Of course, Derek Lively (taken at 11) also looks better than those 2 guys, doesn't he? & so does Jaime Jacquez (18). & Brandon Podziemski (19). Not to mention Jalen Wilson (51), Toumani Camara (52), & Trayce Jackson-Davis (57).

Every one of those guys looks better than Henderson &/or Miller.

2021 - Franz Wagner...

Once again, thanks for helping me out:

Wagner went at 8. The 5 guys taken right after him were Davion Mitchell, Ziaire Williams, James Bouknight, Joshua Primo & Chris Duarte.

How many of them as good as Alperen Sengun, Trey Murphy III, Jalen Johnson, Isaiah Jackson, Cam Thomas, Santi Aldama, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Herb Jones, Miles McBride, Ayo Dosunmu...?

None of them.

How many are as good as Aaron Wiggins, drafted #55 that year. Or Jericho Sims, taken w/ the 58th pick?

None of them.

2019 - Darius Garland

But... but... but... you keep making my point for me!

Who's better, Darius Garland or RJ Barrett?
Who's better, Darius Garland or DeAndre Hunter?

Cody Martin went at 36 that year. His twin brother Caleb was undrafted. OTOH, Jarrett Culver was taken at #6, Cam Reddish went at 10, Romeo Langford came off the board at 14, Sekou Doumouya was nabbed at 15, Chuma Okeke was the #16 pick, Luka Samanic came off the board at #19. Dylan Windler was taken at 26 & Mfiondu Kabengele heard his name called at 27.

Surely, Jarrett, Cam, Romeo, Sekou, Chuma, Luka, Dylan, & Mifondu must be far better NBA players than Caleb Martin! Right?

Give it up, Dat.

I'm not sure what your trying to prove. That you can select a perfectly mediocre player later the draft?

I brought up potential stars drafted between 4-9 and outside of the handful of starters mentioned you proceeded to unleash a flurry of good role players, end of rotation types and guys who aren't even in rotations but apparently must rebound well in limited minutes to land on your radar.

I don't think fans are going crazy over guys like Jalen Wilson, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl or Caleb Martin. Useful roster guys to an extent but these are not core guys or entrenched starters on a playoff team.

The draft is not about quantity, it's about quality. There's only one ball, only 5 guys on the floor at once and typically only a 9-10 man rotation over the course of the year. Adding 4-5 rookies every year is not feasible or realistic for roster construction.

[dobrojim]

Re the size discussion in the Keyshawn thread

It’ll be interesting to get comparable actual measurements on a bunch of these players.
For example, the guards currently near the top of the lottery: Harper, VJ, Tre, Kon, Fears.
How tall is Ace? Or Maluach. How tall is Queen compared to Sorber or some of the
other C/PFs? I suspect the honest measurements are more likely to diminish draft
position for those who measure smaller but that said, they will enhance others due
to the zero sum nature of the process.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Maybe another variable to go along with the pick number is who is doing the picking?

RIght. Plus there is also the added issue of perceived value. 18 is a mid 1st round pick. Whereas 26 & 27 are late 1sts. In fact they are so late in the round they in essence are the equivalent of 2nd round picks. Is there really any difference between picking 26 & 27 and picking 32 & 33? The value of a mid 1st round pick is much higher and takes a lot more to obtain than 2nd rounders which are tossed around left and right as trade fillers or sold for cash.

2nd round picks are a dime a dozen, so why on earth would you trade a mid 1st round pick, which last season we parted with Deni Avdija to obtain a mid 1st round pick, so why would you trade a mid 1st for essentially 2 2nd round picks that could be easily acquired for cash considerations or some kind of future protected 2nds that could eventually become a ham sandwich with a side of crab chips.

Late firsts have guaranteed contracts that keep them on rosters. They're generally no better than some of the best second rounders.

In 2021, the Wizards missed drafting Isaiah Todd at #31, the first round two pick.

However, better later picks: Herbert Jones #35, Miles McBride #36, JT Thor #37, Ayo Dosunmu #38, Neemis Queta #39, Jared Butler #40, Aaron Wiggins #55, and JUSTIN CHAMPAGNIE undrafted were each arguably as good as late firsts.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Pick a draft. Any draft.

How about 2018: 14 of the 21 players taken from 10-30 were better than the guys taken at 5, 6, 7, 8 & 9.

Maybe you'd prefer 2017: the guys taken at 4, 8 & 9 haven't been as good as at least 10 of the players taken in R1 after them. H$ll, they haven't been as good as the guy taken at 45 or the guy taken at 51.

2016 same story. 2015 same story. 2014 same story.... Get the drift?

2023 - Amen Thompson...

A great player, I agree. Taken at 4 & looks to be the 2d best guy out of that draft (after Wemby).
But. you are just making my point for me -- not suggesting evidence against it!
For example, so far at least, Amen looks to be a lot better than Scoot Henderson, who was taken before him. Better than Brandon Miller, also taken before him (tho I'm not suggesting those guys can't develop).

Of course, Derek Lively (taken at 11) also looks better than those 2 guys, doesn't he? & so does Jaime Jacquez (18). & Brandon Podziemski (19). Not to mention Jalen Wilson (51), Toumani Camara (52), & Trayce Jackson-Davis (57).

Every one of those guys looks better than Henderson &/or Miller.

2021 - Franz Wagner...

Once again, thanks for helping me out:

Wagner went at 8. The 5 guys taken right after him were Davion Mitchell, Ziaire Williams, James Bouknight, Joshua Primo & Chris Duarte.

How many of them as good as Alperen Sengun, Trey Murphy III, Jalen Johnson, Isaiah Jackson, Cam Thomas, Santi Aldama, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Herb Jones, Miles McBride, Ayo Dosunmu...?

None of them.

How many are as good as Aaron Wiggins, drafted #55 that year. Or Jericho Sims, taken w/ the 58th pick?

None of them.

2019 - Darius Garland

But... but... but... you keep making my point for me!

Who's better, Darius Garland or RJ Barrett?
Who's better, Darius Garland or DeAndre Hunter?

Cody Martin went at 36 that year. His twin brother Caleb was undrafted. OTOH, Jarrett Culver was taken at #6, Cam Reddish went at 10, Romeo Langford came off the board at 14, Sekou Doumouya was nabbed at 15, Chuma Okeke was the #16 pick, Luka Samanic came off the board at #19. Dylan Windler was taken at 26 & Mfiondu Kabengele heard his name called at 27.

Surely, Jarrett, Cam, Romeo, Sekou, Chuma, Luka, Dylan, & Mifondu must be far better NBA players than Caleb Martin! Right?

Give it up, Dat.

Sorry, you previously stated much better than I did about the 2021 draft.

[payitforward]

Maybe another variable to go along with the pick number is who is doing the picking?

RIght. Plus there is also the added issue of perceived value. 18 is a mid 1st round pick. Whereas 26 & 27 are late 1sts. In fact they are so late in the round they in essence are the equivalent of 2nd round picks. Is there really any difference between picking 26 & 27 and picking 32 & 33? The value of a mid 1st round pick is much higher and takes a lot more to obtain than 2nd rounders which are tossed around left and right as trade fillers or sold for cash.

2nd round picks are a dime a dozen, so why on earth would you trade a mid 1st round pick, which last season we parted with Deni Avdija to obtain a mid 1st round pick, so why would you trade a mid 1st for essentially 2 2nd round picks that could be easily acquired for cash considerations or some kind of future protected 2nds that could eventually become a ham sandwich with a side of crab chips.

Late firsts have guaranteed contracts that keep them on rosters. They're generally no better than some of the best second rounders.

In 2021, the Wizards missed by drafting Isaiah Todd at #31, the first round two pick.

However, better later picks: Herbert Jones #35, Miles McBride #36, JT Thor #37, Ayo Dosunmu #38, Neemis Queta #39, Jared Butler #40, Aaron Wiggins #55, and JUSTIN CHAMPAGNIE undrafted were each arguably as good as late firsts.

Not "as good," better -- every one of the guys you mention except Thor has been substantially better than the guys taken at 2, 7, 9, 11, 12, 13, 18, 19, 21, 23, 24, 25, 26, 28 & 29.

But, it doesn't matter. People *know* that higher picks are "better," because... you know... they're higher. & "higher" is "better." It's "obvious."

That people don't let facts get in the way of such opinions is no surprise either. A year or so ago, one of the top posters here provided what he took to be incontrovertible evidence that Kyle Kuzma was @ the 65th best player among the @500 guys who get minutes in the league each year.

There's just nothing to be done about it. In fact, for quite a while, I gave up trying to make the point about the draft -- just too much dust gets kicked up. But, this is a particularly important draft, so I tried again -- & got the same responses as I usually do.

Does it matter? Nah, of course not! We're just yacking here! & there are plenty of issues where I agree with the very same posters who are wrong per the above stuff.

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...I brought up potential stars drafted between 4-9....

So you did. While leaving out the colossal number of busts (or mediocrities) drafted between 4-9 & also leaving out the actual stars drafted far later in the draft.

Let me choose a random draft, say 2008: you are so right that we find Derrick Rose & Russell Westbrook & Kevin Love right at the top. Absolutely great players every one of them! Wow!

But you want to leave out the fact that we also find Michael Beasley, OJ Mayo, & Joe Alexander right up there w/ Rose, Westbrook & Love. & you'd like to think that those 3 guys can be ignored. That they aren't evidence of anything.

Oh, & you'd also like to ignore the fact that Serge Ibaka went at 24 that year. That Ryan Anderson went at 21. That Nic Batum went at 25. That George Hill went at 26. That DeAndre Jordan went at 35. & that Goran Dragic went at 45.

If you want dismiss those guys by dubbing them mere "role players" I can't stop you. But it won't get you an inch in understanding actual reality.

Any more than leaving out Mario Chalmers & Luc Mbah a Moute, who combined to play 22 years in the league.

Repetition doesn't make things true.