Predict the Wizards record in 2010-2011

[verbal8]

81-1

Do you also predict 1-81 for the Heat?

[Illuminaire]

Now that the predictions are FINAL...

82 of us posted predictions. Collective board prediction: 36.3 wins.

After last night's game, I'm guessing a lot of guys wish they could revise downward.

Naaaah. It's more fun to keep a positive mindset this year - though mainly I'm just hoping to enjoy watching players grow and learn to succeed.

[queridiculo]

Are you going to freeze those predictions at some point?

[Higga]

I'll go with 34 wins if it's not too late.

[Illuminaire]

The season has started. I'd think they should be locked in now, shouldn't they?

[Benjammin]

I'll go with 34 wins if it's not too late.

I'm sorry but I think it was clear predictions had to be in before the tip of the first game.

[WizStorm]

The season has started. I'd think they should be locked in now, shouldn't they?

The "official" predictions are on the previous page and are locked in. However, this thread will remain unlocked for conversations as well as end of season reflection and kudos to those with accurate predictions.

[LyricalRico]

I'll go with 34 wins if it's not too late.

I'm sorry but I think it was clear predictions had to be in before the tip of the first game.

In his defense, it doesn't appear that the Wizards knew the season had started either. So maybe we can give him a pass.

[montestewart]

I'll go with 34 wins if it's not too late.

The season has started. I'd think they should be locked in now, shouldn't they?

The "official" predictions are on the previous page and are locked in. However, this thread will remain unlocked for conversations as well as end of season reflection and kudos to those with accurate predictions.

Don't forget wry commentary.

In his defense, it doesn't appear that the Wizards knew the season had started either. So maybe we can give him a pass.

[closg00]

Here are the OFFICIAL prognostications...

50 wins: Pancakes
49 wins:
48 wins:
47 wins: JWizmentality
46 wins: Plotintelli, nuposse04
45 wins: dobrojim
44 wins: hands11
43 wins: Wizards2Lottery, Shanghai Kid
42 wins: JonathanJoseph, GilArenas88, Joe_Wiz, Illuminaire
41 wins: WizStorm, Scabs304, 1974onWizFan, Tyrone Messby, AceDegenerate
40 wins: Ruzious, Pine, The Fax, Gil_Kills, sportsshooteral
39 wins: YiOF, Induveca, wizfan1984, miller31time, Rafael122, RT31
38 wins: DallasShalDune, CrankyTodd, MF23
37 wins: darealhibachi, zaRdsAndZeRos, CCJ, TheGreatWall, eitanr, montestewart, JAR69, bulletproof_32
36 wins: bgroban, jimij, wermolwermol777, Donkey McDonkerton, go'stags
35 wins: AnotherFinn, REDardWIZskin, Zonkerbl, Severn Hoos, lupin
34 wins: KevinFCheng, dangermouse, sfam, tikunit, KiNgSbOi, BigA, Verbal8, long suffrin' boulez fan, AlohaWiz
33 wins: Hoopalotta, Floydfan29, wiz99, Nigel Tufnel, fishercob, Halcyon, LyricalRico
32 wins: Gesa2, dandridge10, closg00, greendale, nate33
31 wins: Consiglieri81, doclinkin
30 wins: Pollinator, Benjammin, MJG
29 wins: hermitkid, Dat2U
28 wins: willbcocks
27 wins: Nivek, no D in Hibachi
26 wins: fugop
25 wins:
24 wins:
23 wins: Visigoth

And from the "experts"...
32.5 wins: Vegas odds for over/under bets

30.0 wins: Basketball Prospectus, Bradford Doolittle uses a different statistical prognostication method, which he used to simulate the upcoming season 10,000 times. In his system, the Wizards finish 28th on average with 30.0 wins. Doolittle predicts the Wizards as having a 1.0% chance of finishing .500, a 4.8% chance of making the playoffs and no chance of making the Finals or winning the title. In his 10,000 simulations, the Wizards' high in wins was 45, their low was 8.

23.1 wins: Kevin Pelton at Basketball Prospectus has updated season predictions based on his statistical projection system, which he calls SCHOENE. He plugs in the numbers and simulates the season 1,000 times. The average from those simulations says the Wizards will win 23.1 games and finish with the league's worst record. In those simulations, the Wizards and Clippers were the only teams to not make the playoffs even once.

13.3 wins: Wages of Wins system (via Arturo Galetti, here)

Jeff Sagarin has the Wizards at 27th in the league

Visgoth, Nivek, & No D, are in the running for being the official "winner", the official prognosticators also may have had us pegged.

[Illuminaire]

It's an 82-game season. Even Pancakes is still in this thing. =p

[Hoopalotta]

Worth noting that as of now we're...

27th in offensive efficiency: 95.5 points per 100 possessions
25th in defensive efficiency: 106.8 points per 100 possessions
29th in Rebounding rate: 45.7%
29th in Scoring differential: -11.6 PPG

Obviously the Orlando game is still skewing these downward given the small sample size.

I figure we can just track this here as the season goes along.

[BigA]

Checking in after going 3-6 in the first 9 games:

1. Barring a new series of catastrophic injuries, the Wizards look like they will easily outperform the lowest projections (e.g. the computer geek who had them as "one of the worst teams of all time").

2. Yes, some nights they have looked really crappy. But it's pretty clear that there are quite a few teams that are as crappy or even crappier. Notwithstanding Hollinger currently ranking them worst in the league.

If the Wizards can win a good percentage of their home games vs. crappy teams, add a few road wins, and get occasional home wins vs. decent teams, they should be at least somewhat better than the league's rock bottom. The 20-25 win range looks like the floor at this point.

3. Beating the Vegas projection of 32 wins and reaching what appears to be the board mean ("improving through the year, on the playoff bubble, mid to high 30s in wins") looks to be realistic optimism.

Wall is really good. Gil looks like he can still score at a level that gives us a puncher's chance against all but league-elite opponents. Blatche and McGee at least look like they aren't regressing (maybe even improving?). Some of the secondary players have looked okay. There will be some face-palm type games, but also some fun watching them get better.

4. Getting to the most optimistic predictions of .500 and up will probably be prevented by the stuff that's been identified over and over on the board, but I wouldn't rule it out yet. Stranger things have happened in sports.

Would require most or all of the following: (1) healthy Wall continuing ROY-level play, (2) meshing with healthy Gil, (3) moderate to significant progress from Blatche and McGee, (4) Josh Howard coming back and making a real contribution.

[hands11]

Checking in after going 3-6 in the first 9 games:

1. Barring a new series of catastrophic injuries, the Wizards look like they will easily outperform the lowest projections (e.g. the computer geek who had them as "one of the worst teams of all time").

2. Yes, some nights they have looked really crappy. But it's pretty clear that there are quite a few teams that are as crappy or even crappier. Notwithstanding Hollinger currently ranking them worst in the league.

If the Wizards can win a good percentage of their home games vs. crappy teams, add a few road wins, and get occasional home wins vs. decent teams, they should be at least somewhat better than the league's rock bottom. The 20-25 win range looks like the floor at this point.

3. Beating the Vegas projection of 32 wins and reaching what appears to be the board mean ("improving through the year, on the playoff bubble, mid to high 30s in wins") looks to be realistic optimism.

Wall is really good. Gil looks like he can still score at a level that gives us a puncher's chance against all but league-elite opponents. Blatche and McGee at least look like they aren't regressing (maybe even improving?). Some of the secondary players have looked okay. There will be some face-palm type games, but also some fun watching them get better.

4. Getting to the most optimistic predictions of .500 and up will probably be prevented by the stuff that's been identified over and over on the board, but I wouldn't rule it out yet. Stranger things have happened in sports.

Would require most or all of the following: (1) healthy Wall continuing ROY-level play, (2) meshing with healthy Gil, (3) moderate to significant progress from Blatche and McGee, (4) Josh Howard coming back and making a real contribution.

Would require most or all of the following: (1) healthy Wall continuing ROY-level play, (2) meshing with healthy Gil, (3) moderate to significant progress from Blatche and McGee, (4) Josh Howard coming back and making a real contribution.

And why is that such a stretch ? Plus you left some stuff out.

What people may want to consider when evaluating this team is that we have likely seen the worst they are going to look. Nothing was likely to look worse than the first 10 games.

Dray rusty and out of shape coming off a foot injury and even additional dings, yet he is already playing at a solid level. I expect as he start more and get healthy, he will show more improvement. And not making the All Star ballet is just the kind of insult to give Dray something to motivate him even more.

Kirk was brand new to a whole team of players. He is shooting .476 and 5.4 assist and 12.5 pts. Already. with 3 rbs a game. That not bad at all.

Gil didn't even start the season and after 5 games he already had a 20 pt game and a 30 pts game. Game by game you see Gil getting his game back. That isn't even mentioning meshing with all these new players, including Wall who took his spot. Add him adjusting to the SG slot. 7-10 from 3 in 3rd game back. I would call that great progress. Not even taking into account how much mentally he needed to adjust after the gun thing. Gil looks like he is more the Gil I originally start to like than I have been since year two here. Another 10 games and Gil will probably be back in full form. And now he is playing D plus Gil is a good rebounder 4.2 career average. Gil is going to be fully back this year and that adds a lot. He can score, spread the floor, stop runs, take big shots.

AT was looking good then came down with some strange stomach/illness thing

Nick is showing signs of finally maturing and had 11 rebounds and two games. Just had two back to back 20 pt games and is shooting .500 on the season.

Even Armstrong is showing some progress. I had no idea he could shoot left handed. And he logged 10 rebounds in 18 minutes and was 4-8 against a tough Chicago team. Shooting .583 on the season.

And we haven't hardly even seen Booker or Seraphin yet. They are the muscle this team has been missing.

And we haven't added back Howard. I mean if we are talking Wall, Gil, Howard alone, that is some talent at 1, 2 and 3. Add Kirk and AT and that is nice depth. Now if Nick finally has his light on, that takes us to another level. That is pretty solid. So then its about what can Dray, McGee, Booker, Armstrong and Seraphin do. I think as the season moves on, they will do more and more. Specially if we add that man muscle in Booker and Seraphin. And don't discount the D and muscle Armstrong has been showing more of.

The start of the season was going to be the ugliest ball for sure for all the season mentioned above. And three of their losses were to Orlando ( game one - Championship level leading division - team No Gil), Chicago ( leading division wall got injured ) and Boston ( no Wall Championship level team leading division)

We beat Phili 2-10 we arent that bad
We beat Houston 3-8
We beat TOR 3-9

Yet we are 3-7 after that. We are better than them and only going to get better.

Lets see where we are after MEM, DET and PHI. These are teams that are beatable given where the Wiz are at this point. The Wiz are better than when they started the season. Gil getting it going, Nick hot, Dray solidish while hurt, Kirk settling in, Armstrong coming on off the bench with some muscle, Nick starting to rebounds, etc. etc.

We could easily be 7-7 before we hit ATL. Then we likely get crushed by ORL again. Then we go against LeDouche before we get TOR again. Wed, Dec 1, maybe 8-10 or 9-9 with some luck.

At that point we can judge if we are good enough to beat any of the .500 teams or better. Oh, J Howard should be close at that point.

Being a .500 team is still very doable. We are just getting started.

[Severn Hoos]

I'll go with 35 wins. Biggest issues are depth and experience. I think the first team will be better than their opponents in a majority of their games, but will have a hard time closing games.

Random prediction: The Wiz will be leading at the half in more than 50% of their games.

Other predictions: Gil averages 20 points and is not traded. Wall averages 8 assists. Blatche around 15 & 8, which will be viewed as a disappointment. Josh Howard emerges as the "MVP" - in the sense that he is the difference-maker. When he's on (and healthy), the Wiz win more often than not, but when he's out, the team really struggles. Minor mid-season trade involving Young and/or Thornton.

Just sayin.

Way off on the wins - we might push 30, but can't see 35. Then again, .500 the rest of the way gets us to 33. Hmmm.... Also missed on Gil being traded.

But really, this was so predictable. The team has no closer, especially without Arenas, who was the only one that even provided a hope of filling that role. They have already led so many times in the second half before losing the lead late in the game.

And on Blatche - he's actually averaging 17 & 8, and yet he's the primary target for everything that's wrong with the team. Go figure.

[Zonkerbl]

Argh! Right after the thread started I said 32 wins, and then I forgot I had already posted and said 35, and then I caught that I was on the list twice, and said go with 35.

Should've gone with my instincts. Looks like low twenties is more likely. Yeah, looks like they're currently on pace for 19 wins. Wow, that's pathetic.

[willbcocks]

It's okay Zonker, the only prize you win for correctly predicting a crappy recprd is getting to watch a lot of crappy games.

[BanndNDC]

Here are the OFFICIAL prognostications...

50 wins: Pancakes
49 wins:
48 wins:
47 wins: JWizmentality
46 wins: Plotintelli, nuposse04
45 wins: dobrojim
44 wins: hands11
43 wins: Wizards2Lottery, Shanghai Kid
42 wins: JonathanJoseph, GilArenas88, Joe_Wiz, Illuminaire
41 wins: WizStorm, Scabs304, 1974onWizFan, Tyrone Messby, AceDegenerate
40 wins: Ruzious, Pine, The Fax, Gil_Kills, sportsshooteral
39 wins: YiOF, Induveca, wizfan1984, miller31time, Rafael122, RT31
38 wins: DallasShalDune, CrankyTodd, MF23
37 wins: darealhibachi, zaRdsAndZeRos, CCJ, TheGreatWall, eitanr, montestewart, JAR69, bulletproof_32
36 wins: bgroban, jimij, wermolwermol777, Donkey McDonkerton, go'stags
35 wins: AnotherFinn, REDardWIZskin, Zonkerbl, Severn Hoos, lupin
34 wins: KevinFCheng, dangermouse, sfam, tikunit, KiNgSbOi, BigA, Verbal8, long suffrin' boulez fan, AlohaWiz
33 wins: Hoopalotta, Floydfan29, wiz99, Nigel Tufnel, fishercob, Halcyon, LyricalRico
32 wins: Gesa2, dandridge10, closg00, greendale, nate33
31 wins: Consiglieri81, doclinkin
30 wins: Pollinator, Benjammin, MJG
29 wins: hermitkid, Dat2U
28 wins: willbcocks
27 wins: Nivek, no D in Hibachi
26 wins: fugop
25 wins:
24 wins:
23 wins: Visigoth

And from the "experts"...
32.5 wins: Vegas odds for over/under bets

30.0 wins: Basketball Prospectus, Bradford Doolittle uses a different statistical prognostication method, which he used to simulate the upcoming season 10,000 times. In his system, the Wizards finish 28th on average with 30.0 wins. Doolittle predicts the Wizards as having a 1.0% chance of finishing .500, a 4.8% chance of making the playoffs and no chance of making the Finals or winning the title. In his 10,000 simulations, the Wizards' high in wins was 45, their low was 8.

23.1 wins: Kevin Pelton at Basketball Prospectus has updated season predictions based on his statistical projection system, which he calls SCHOENE. He plugs in the numbers and simulates the season 1,000 times. The average from those simulations says the Wizards will win 23.1 games and finish with the league's worst record. In those simulations, the Wizards and Clippers were the only teams to not make the playoffs even once.

13.3 wins: Wages of Wins system (via Arturo Galetti, here)

Jeff Sagarin has the Wizards at 27th in the league

just so we remember (and remember that most of us assumed no arenas trade):
83 predictions
median = 36 wins
average = 35.8
mode = 34

current pace = 24 (0-41 on the road though)
over 50% of our remaining games are against teams with losing records.

a quick perusal suggests that most posters pegged the suckiness but were optimistic on win totals (probably a superstition/aspiration thing) and had too much faith in arenas. take him out of the equation and i bet the average prediction would have been closer to 30. take away the outliers and that would drop even lower (though 30 is such a nice round number that i guess there'd be a lot of bunching). factor out an historic road losing streak (#3 and rising) and it's not far off.

much of what was happening was expected. doesn;t make things better but it does put some of it in perspective.

[JWizmentality]

sigh...I feel like I'm stuck in an abusive relationship.

[fishercob]

sigh...I feel like I'm stuck in an abusive relationship.

Or just not very smart, Mr 47.