The Tank Watch has expired. Time to cheer to win again!

[nate33]

Remaining Wiz games:

@ New York
Cleveland
@ Chicago
Milwaukee
@ Miami
vs Charlotte
@ Cleveland
Miami

Remaining Hornets games:

UTA
MEM
@ CHA
@ Mem
HOU
@ LAC
@ GSW
@ HOU

Ouch. The Hornets might only win one more game - against Charlotte. There is one other winnable game on the road against Golden State. All the other games are against motivated playoff teams fighting for playoff seeding (or, in the case of Utah, fighting to make the playoffs).

The Wizards will beat Charlotte and probably beat Cleveland at home. The home games against Milwaukee and Miami are conceivably winnable, as is the road game at Cleveland. I figure at least 3 more wins, with as many as 5 if Booker and/or Nene get back.

[tontoz]

I doubt we will see Booker and Nene back. I think mgt is committed to tanking plus i think they want KS/JV to get plenty of minutes.

[Higga]

Yeah looking at the schedules I think we'll surpass New Orleans(or they'll surpass us depending on how you look at it).

Could be back to back years with the 6th pick with our luck.

[The Consiglieri]

New Orleans is starting to play pretty decent at home (4-2 in their last six), I think they can win probably 2 of the home games, and the fact that the back to backers are largely composed of games they wouldnt likely win anyway helps too. It is going to go down to the wire, but we have a 2 game lead, and I think they can pick up 1 or 2 home wins, hopefully a win against charlotte in the back to baccker, and then they finish against a Golden State team that is desperately trying to tank its way to its pick being theirs again. I think there's a decent chance of 2-4 wins, but its gonna be real tough. We have way too many easy games.

I couldnt give a rats behind about logging wins against Miami and New York and Chicago down the stretch. That would be well and truly horrible, to put our floor at the 6th pick in return for some pointless win? If were guaranteed to win 3, then sure, but I want us to lose out, and badly, gotta lock in bottom 5 finish post-lotto worst case scenario, theres no way in hell I'd ever sacrifice a slot, for a win against one of those teams. 1 slot was the difference between us landing the 2nd best prospect coming next year (Valunciunas if he comes), and getting Ves last year (Granted EG might have gone full idiot, and still taken Ves over Valunciunas but the point still holds).

[montestewart]

Bucks and Knicks fighting for playoffs. Heat have beaten Wizards five straight last two seasons by average of 10+ points (though one was a 1 point win). It all comes down to whether Cleveland's Lesteria holds up. Magic number NINE: combined Wizards wins and Hornets losses, anything above that put Wizards into a tie with the Hornets (coin toss?) and anything above ten sinks them to third worst.

Hornets have won three of last five, including a 2 point loss to the Lakers.

I have a hard time seeing the Wizards winning four of their remaining eight games, and I have a hard time seeing the Hornets losing all remaining games. I have a hard time seeing anything worse than a tie. If I'm wrong, I'll have a hard time.

[dobrojim]

New Orleans is starting to play pretty decent at home (4-2 in their last six), I think they can win probably 2 of the home games, and the fact that the back to backers are largely composed of games they wouldnt likely win anyway helps too. It is going to go down to the wire, but we have a 2 game lead, and I think they can pick up 1 or 2 home wins, hopefully a win against charlotte in the back to baccker, and then they finish against a Golden State team that is desperately trying to tank its way to its pick being theirs again. I think there's a decent chance of 2-4 wins, but its gonna be real tough. We have way too many easy games.

I couldnt give a rats behind about logging wins against Miami and New York and Chicago down the stretch. That would be well and truly horrible, to put our floor at the 6th pick in return for some pointless win? If were guaranteed to win 3, then sure, but I want us to lose out, and badly, gotta lock in bottom 5 finish post-lotto worst case scenario, theres no way in hell I'd ever sacrifice a slot, for a win against one of those teams. 1 slot was the difference between us landing the 2nd best prospect coming next year (Valunciunas if he comes), and getting Ves last year (Granted EG might have gone full idiot, and still taken Ves over Valunciunas but the point still holds).

I understand and actually do appreciate what you're saying but I also
think it's a closer call on the value that Ws against those teams would have,
assuming they are actually trying to W those games themselves and it now
appears as though they will be going all in to win. Those are like playoff
games to those teams. Good experience. Best case is play well enough to
win, put the fear of God in them, but come up just short.

If we end up missing a player who is a clear difference maker by one
slot where neither we nor NOH move up, then you have a strong case.
But there is too much uncertainty to make absolute judgements.

[fishercob]

Bucks and Knicks fighting for playoffs. Heat have beaten Wizards five straight last two seasons by average of 10+ points (though one was a 1 point win). It all comes down to whether Cleveland's Lesteria holds up. Magic number NINE: combined Wizards wins and Hornets losses, anything above that put Wizards into a tie with the Hornets (coin toss?) and anything above ten sinks them to third worst.

Hornets have won three of last five, including a 2 point loss to the Lakers.

I have a hard time seeing the Wizards winning four of their remaining eight games, and I have a hard time seeing the Hornets losing all remaining games. I have a hard time seeing anything worse than a tie. If I'm wrong, I'll have a hard time.

Great breakdown monte!

[tontoz]

Monte is in rare form today. I think he might have gotten an early start on happy hour.

[dobrojim]

not sure about this but didn't we beat NO in our only meeting this year
which means no coin toss, they win the tiebreaker?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I see only 2 more Ws for NOH, GSW and CHA
I see minimum 3 for us, CLE(2x) and CHA. If it plays out that way, we win!

but we're capable of winning more. As much as I want the highest pick possible,
I would be very happy with Ws against MIA, NY or CHI.

The way I see it, with the way Kevin Seraphin is playing and with how much the defense has improved, Washington will win three more at least. I agree, jim. They might win 5 more. Like the rest of you, I see New Orleans winning at most 2 or 3 the rest of the way.

What's probably going to happen is Washington will catch and overtake New Orleans.

The odds on Davis are going down, probably, but that doesn't mean they wont get him. I don't think it's that big of a deal to finish 3rd-worst or 2nd. I would love to be in Charlotte's position and have a 25% chance. Regardless, even then it is going to come down to luck.

Washington is just going to have to hope to get lucky.

[7-Day Dray]

not sure about this but didn't we beat NO in our only meeting this year
which means no coin toss, they win the tiebreaker?

There is no tiebreaker in the lottery. Ties are always determined by coin toss.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery#Process

If the Wizards finish 2nd worst, they have a 19.9% or roughly 1/5 chance at Anthony Davis. They would have a 56% chance at a top-3 pick, an 88% chance at a top-4 pick, and 100% of picking top-5.

If the Wizards finish 3rd worst, they have a 15.6% or a little less that 1/6 chance at Davis. Chance goes down to 47% for a top-3, 70% for a top-4, 96% for a top-5, and only 4% they have to settle for #6.

The Wizards will get a top-5 pick. Count on it, with 96% being the likelihood. If they're lucky, they will get a top-3 pick even if they finish with a better record than the Hornets. Odds are pretty much 50-50 on the Wizards picking top three (between 47 and 56%).

The really good news is worst doesn't usually win the lottery and THIRD could be due to win the lottery. If I were a betting man, I would say 3rd or probably 4th worse will win the lottery. See the link and scroll to the bottom.

The bad news is out of 30 teams, I cannot see Washington winning again for the 3rd time in 12 seasons. They selected Kwame Brown and John Wall already.

Don't count on Anthony Davis. I think the Nets or Kings will get him.

Code: Select all

As of 2008, with 30 NBA teams, 16 qualify for the playoffs and the remaining 14 teams are entered in the draft lottery. These 14 teams are ranked in reverse order of their regular season record and are assigned the following number of chances
250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick
199 combinations, 19.9% chance
156 combinations, 15.6% chance
119 combinations, 11.9% chance
88 combinations, 8.8% chance
63 combinations, 6.3% chance
43 combinations, 4.3% chance
28 combinations, 2.8% chance
17 combinations, 1.7% chance
11 combinations, 1.1% chance
8 combinations, 0.8% chance
7 combinations, 0.7% chance
6 combinations, 0.6% chance
5 combinations, 0.5% chance
Here are the odds for each seed to get specific picks if there were no ties (rounded to 3 decimal places):
Seed   Chances   1st   2nd   3rd   4th   5th   6th   7th   8th   9th   10th   11th   12th   13th   14th
1   250   .250   .215   .178   .357                              
2   199   .199   .188   .171   .319   .123                           
3   156   .156   .157   .156   .226   .265   .040                        
4   119   .119   .126   .133   .099   .351   .160   .012                     
5   88   .088   .097   .107      .261   .360   .084   .004                  
6   63   .063   .071   .081         .439   .305   .040   .001               
7   43   .043   .049   .058            .599   .232   .018   .000            
8   28   .028   .033   .039               .724   .168   .008   .000         
9   17   .017   .020   .024                  .813   .122   .004   .000      
10   11   .011   .013   .016                     .870   .089   .002   .000   
11   8   .008   .009   .012                        .907   .063   .001   .000
12   7   .007   .008   .010                           .935   .039   .000
13   6   .006   .007   .009                              .960   .018
14   5   .005   .006   .007                                 .

[nate33]

I see only 2 more Ws for NOH, GSW and CHA
I see minimum 3 for us, CLE(2x) and CHA. If it plays out that way, we win!

but we're capable of winning more. As much as I want the highest pick possible,
I would be very happy with Ws against MIA, NY or CHI.

The way I see it, with the way Kevin Seraphin is playing and with how much the defense has improved, Washington will win three more at least. I agree, jim. They might win 5 more. Like the rest of you, I see New Orleans winning at most 2 or 3 the rest of the way.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. We still have, by far the worst starting forwards in the league with Vesely and Singleton, and our SG isn't so hot either. We're not that great when healthy, with Nene and Booker out, it's hard to see how we're anything but bad.

Our two recent wins barely count as a winning streak. One was against the hapless Charlotte Bobcats, the other was against an Orlando team without Howard. Take a good look at Orlando's roster without Howard. See if you can do it without vomiting a bit in your mouth.

[7-Day Dray]

I think people are getting a little too excited about this team. Yeah we've won two in a row, but we beat a HORRIBLE Charlotte team and a Magic team w/o Dwight Howard. He's their best player so, you can't downplay his absence.

I've been watch NO lately, and they have a pretty solid team. Their frontcourt is good with Jason Smith (deadly mid-range shooter) and Kaman who complement each other well, with Landry off the bench for some scoring punch. They have good shooters too in Bellinelli (sp?), Vasquez, Henry, etc. Gordon got dinged up again though, and Jack is out for the rest of the season, which is a big blow because he's the only PG on their roster that can penetrate. But I still think they're current roster is better than ours with our injuries. I don't think they go ahead of us in the tank standings. Here's their last 8 games of the season.

Fri 13 vs Utah
Sun 15 vs Memphis
Mon 16 @ Charlotte
Wed 18 @ Memphis
Thu 19 vs Houston
Sun 22 @ LA Clippers
Tue 24 @ Golden State
Thu 26 @ Houston

They have some very winnable games coming up. While of it just might be me hoping for our team's sake, I think we will come out of the season with the 2nd highest odds to get Davis.

All in all, this board gets too high after wins, and too down after losses.

[7-Day Dray]

I see only 2 more Ws for NOH, GSW and CHA
I see minimum 3 for us, CLE(2x) and CHA. If it plays out that way, we win!

but we're capable of winning more. As much as I want the highest pick possible,
I would be very happy with Ws against MIA, NY or CHI.

The way I see it, with the way Kevin Seraphin is playing and with how much the defense has improved, Washington will win three more at least. I agree, jim. They might win 5 more. Like the rest of you, I see New Orleans winning at most 2 or 3 the rest of the way.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. We still have, by far the worst starting forwards in the league with Vesely and Singleton, and our SG isn't so hot either. We're not that great when healthy, with Nene and Booker out, it's hard to see how we're anything but bad.

Our two recent wins barely count as a winning streak. One was against the hapless Charlotte Bobcats, the other was against an Orlando team without Howard. Take a good look at Orlando's roster without Howard. See if you can do it without vomiting a bit in your mouth.

+1000 Took the words right out of my mouth.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I see only 2 more Ws for NOH, GSW and CHA
I see minimum 3 for us, CLE(2x) and CHA. If it plays out that way, we win!

but we're capable of winning more. As much as I want the highest pick possible,
I would be very happy with Ws against MIA, NY or CHI.

The way I see it, with the way Kevin Seraphin is playing and with how much the defense has improved, Washington will win three more at least. I agree, jim. They might win 5 more. Like the rest of you, I see New Orleans winning at most 2 or 3 the rest of the way.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. We still have, by far the worst starting forwards in the league with Vesely and Singleton, and our SG isn't so hot either. We're not that great when healthy, with Nene and Booker out, it's hard to see how we're anything but bad.

Our two recent wins barely count as a winning streak. One was against the hapless Charlotte Bobcats, the other was against an Orlando team without Howard. Take a good look at Orlando's roster without Howard. See if you can do it without vomiting a bit in your mouth.

The Wizards play Charlotte at home, nate. The Wizards play Cleveland twice. They have Milwaukee at home. The final game against Miami could be a meaningless game for the Heat if they're not going to catch Chicago and they rest their stars for the playoffs. Of those 5 games, I foresee no less than 3 wins.

[closg00]

An X-Factor could be if Miami decides to rest their starters those last games with us. The Bucks and Knicks are fighting for their playoff lives so they will be hard to beat. Thos Cav games could be split.

[7-Day Dray]

Remaining Wiz games:

@ New York
Cleveland
@ Chicago
Milwaukee
@ Miami
vs Charlotte
@ Cleveland
Miami

Remaining Hornets games:

UTA
MEM
@ CHA
@ Mem
HOU
@ LAC
@ GSW
@ HOU

Ouch. The Hornets might only win one more game - against Charlotte. There is one other winnable game on the road against Golden State. All the other games are against motivated playoff teams fighting for playoff seeding (or, in the case of Utah, fighting to make the playoffs).

The Wizards will beat Charlotte and probably beat Cleveland at home. The home games against Milwaukee and Miami are conceivably winnable, as is the road game at Cleveland. I figure at least 3 more wins, with as many as 5 if Booker and/or Nene get back.

The Hornets will beat GSW if they remain healthy. Seriously, don't sleep on NO. Most of their losses have been close and down to the wire.

[nate33]

The Wizards play Charlotte at home, nate. The Wizards play Cleveland twice. They have Milwaukee at home. The final game against Miami could be a meaningless game for the Heat if they're not going to catch Chicago and they rest their stars for the playoffs. Of those 5 games, I foresee no less than 3 wins.

I just disagree with the confidence that the Wizards will win "no less than 3 games". I think 3 games is possible, but it's probably pushing the upside a bit. The only guaranteed win is the one against Charlotte. Cleveland at home is a probable win. There are 3 other conceivably winnable games (@ Cleveland, vs Milwaukee, vs Miami) but I think we're underdogs in all three games.

[montestewart]

Take a good look at Orlando's roster without Howard. See if you can do it without vomiting a bit in your mouth.

I took a whole game's worth of look from Sec. 113. Fortunately for me, that didn't happen.

Milwaukee is 14-7 over the last 21 games, including close losses to Bulls, Knicks, and Grizzlies, and no losses to sorry teams, and they're fighting for a playoff spot.

Knicks are 12-4 over the last 16 games, with one loss @ Toronto, and they're fighting to maintain a playoff spot.

Cleveland may offer a win, but they're 2-2 over the last four, with a road OT loss @ NJ and a home OT loss to Pacers. Hudson may have made them more formidable for the duration, but maybe the Wizards split there.

Heat are 5-5 in the last 10, but all the losses were to top teams, and if they beat Bulls tonight, they might be playing for top seed. Motivated, they could run the table. The they'll be hoping the Wizards beat the Bulls too.

The Wizards will beat the Bobcats, the Cavs (once) and maybe one other game. The Hornets will win at least one and possibly two games. No worse than a tie.