Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part II

[Knighthonor]

Should Wizards draft a Center like Noel, or go for a 6th man scorer like another SG or SF?

[nate33]

We have full Bird Rights. There aren't really any practical limits, high or low, on what we can pay him. We can pay him anywhere between a minimum and a maximum salary. Our only restriction is that his raises (or pay cuts) each year must be no greater than 7.5%. We can't pay him $5M next year and then have his salary balloon to $10M the next year, for example.

Oh OK I see what you mean.

So basically it doesn't matter what our cap situation is, we'll be free to negotiate any kind of deal with him up to the max because of the Bird exception.

In that case it seems to our advantage to plan on Okafor being our stop gap center since we can use that exception for him. We know he works for us, he's only 30 and probably still has a handful of years left in him.

I haven't sat down and really looked at all the contracts for 2014/15, but if you say we'd have roughly 24 million in cap room after signing Webster, that's like 38 million below the tax line right? You could probably keep Oak and Ariza too after signing Wall to his extension. My gut says those guys need to be off the books the year Beal's rookie deal expires.

I think that could give you enough years to develop Noel/Zeller/Len from the bench so they could at least be physically developed by the time you'd need them to start.

I'm not sure we need THAT long to develop Noel. We are way past the days when rookies sit on the bench for 2 or 3 years before getting significant playing time, particularly when they are getting paid $4-5M a year on a rookie scale contract.. I think having Noel play one year as Okafor's understudy is enough.

As a rookie, Noel would only play a few minutes a game with Okafor getting 30 minutes at C and Nene getting another 10. Noel could spend that year bulking up and learning the game.

In his 2nd season, Okafor is gone and we use the cap room (or the 2014 pick) to acquire a starting caliber PF. Nene moves to starting C and also does a little work as backup PF, ceding about 20-25 minutes a game at C to be handled by Noel.

In his 3rd season, Noel would be the starting C. Nene becomes a 28 MPG backup at both positions.

[hands11]

So here is the all important question....

If you had the #1 or you know you could get Noel with the #2, would you trade it for two firsts if you could get Porter or Victor O and Withey. Cuz I don't think he is going to the 2nd round as much as I think he will rise in the first. Maybe I'm wrong and his age keeps him lower. But that beside the point. Would you trade a top 2 pick down for two #1 if that was the only way to get him.

I really hope they find a way to get two number ones. Unless there are second round picks that are just as good. I have seen a few posted. Snaer, McDermott but I don't see a center there as good as Withey.

No. I'd draft Noel at #1 and be happy. You have to look towards the future. Nene and Okafor will start to decline soon. We've got NOTHING in the pipeline.

Whitey is a solid player and might make an impact as a quality backup center or maybe even a serviceable starter like a Robin Lopez, but he's not a game changer. Noel looks more like the next Joakim Noah. Look at it this way. Let's assume for argument's sake that Porter pans out to be the next Batum. Would you rather have Batum and Robin Lopez at SF and C, or Webster and Noah?

Isnt it Webster, Batum and Lopez vs Webster and Noah ?

Or Webster, Batum, Trevor A and Lopez vs Trevor A, Webster and Noah. And how long will it take our baby Noah to get it going ? When will he return from the ACL ?

Regardless, your point is made and it was the core of my question. Do you go with the single player who has the potential to be very good, or two players who are very solid, one of which will be ready to produce day one.

That said, I did also list Victor O as a choice. Maybe you even take Burke. That makes is a little more complicated. I think Victor O has more upside then Otto are a spark type. Otto feels more like a rock solid type who in time might reach near all star quality. Victor O seems to have a little more shine than that.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I think he's a camp invite guy. You don't want to be locked into 2 years for 1 spectacular fluke game even if it was against a good team.

As for Porter's athleticism - total nonstarter. Explosive athletes and skilled sf rarely intersect. Look at Caron Butler, Paul Pierce, Danny Granger, etc. compared to the no names that fill up the dunk contest.

Porter is not a high flyer, or pogo stick, or rocket 1st step, above the rim athlete. He's not especially smooth. He's a little stiff looking, with somewhat jutting movement. His shot is a little awkward looking.

But he's got a efficiency in his movements, he's got a good combination of strength, speed and length. The players you mention are good comparisons for him. I also think of guys like Battier, Gerald Wallace, Artest, and Pippen.

[hands11]

Here's an interesting article on Ryan Kelly http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketba ... ts-dukes-d further making the case that he's nowhere near the defensive liability that most assume he is - he's a good team defender - and would be a good pickup for the Wizards. Draftexpress still doesn't even have him as a 2nd rounder - while nbadraft.net move him up 10 spots from the last pick in the draft.

I just watched that game. So what was the deal with him. Was he injured and he is just coming back ?

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... ryan-kelly

Two nice games.

[stevemcqueen1]

Or how about this nate,

Let's say you don't like any of the bigs available in this year's class and you want Porter as the BPA. What's the best course for finding a long term big?

Do you sign Martell back if you draft Porter?

Then that next summer when we have all of that cap space, do you let Okafor and/or Ariza walk, plan on Porter being the starting SF, and then sign a really expensive big man in FA?

Like making a max offer for Derrick Favors, Greg Monroe, or DeMarcus Cousins?

Then you would ostensibly have these starters:

1 - Wall
2 - Beal
3 - Porter
4/5 - Nene & a max or near max FA big.

That's a drastic change from the current roster but not necessarily a bad thing. I'm thinking we could afford it given the cap situation you outlined but the depth might be really cheap/bad.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Good game on ESPN Ohio State vs Indiana.

[pancakes3]

I would absolutely give a max offer for Greg Monroe. I'd offer the max and let him date my sister.

[stevemcqueen1]

I would absolutely give a max offer for Greg Monroe. I'd offer the max and let him date my sister.

Do you think Detroit would match?

[hands11]

Looking at the 2011 draft. Wizards had #6 and #18... Vesely and Singleton.

They could of drafted Vucevic and Faried.

But of course, NOBODY could of made those picks or had any idea those 2 players would be any good.

[hands11]

We have full Bird Rights. There aren't really any practical limits, high or low, on what we can pay him. We can pay him anywhere between a minimum and a maximum salary. Our only restriction is that his raises (or pay cuts) each year must be no greater than 7.5%. We can't pay him $5M next year and then have his salary balloon to $10M the next year, for example.

Oh OK I see what you mean.

So basically it doesn't matter what our cap situation is, we'll be free to negotiate any kind of deal with him up to the max because of the Bird exception.

In that case it seems to our advantage to plan on Okafor being our stop gap center since we can use that exception for him. We know he works for us, he's only 30 and probably still has a handful of years left in him.

I haven't sat down and really looked at all the contracts for 2014/15, but if you say we'd have roughly 24 million in cap room after signing Webster, that's like 38 million below the tax line right? You could probably keep Oak and Ariza too after signing Wall to his extension. My gut says those guys need to be off the books the year Beal's rookie deal expires.

I think that could give you enough years to develop Noel/Zeller/Len from the bench so they could at least be physically developed by the time you'd need them to start.

Sign here.....................................................

Looks like another one is on the bus.

[stevemcqueen1]

Dipo in early foul trouble, that sucks.

[hands11]

I think he's a camp invite guy. You don't want to be locked into 2 years for 1 spectacular fluke game even if it was against a good team.

As for Porter's athleticism - total nonstarter. Explosive athletes and skilled sf rarely intersect. Look at Caron Butler, Paul Pierce, Danny Granger, etc. compared to the no names that fill up the dunk contest.

Porter is not a high flyer, or pogo stick, or rocket 1st step, above the rim athlete. He's not especially smooth. He's a little stiff looking, with somewhat jutting movement. His shot is a little awkward looking.

But he's got a efficiency in his movements, he's got a good combination of strength, speed and length. The players you mention are good comparisons for him. I also think of guys like Battier, Gerald Wallace, Artest, and Pippen.

So you mean he is a basketball player. Thats good. I like drafting basketball players vs track stars. Now if you are a basketball player and have great athleticism, I'll take that as well.

For me, I'm putting a premium on actual basketball skills. I really don't want any projects. Skills and a rock solid personality with smarts and drive. A team first player. Preferably that can defend their position.

[hands11]

Good game on ESPN Ohio State vs Indiana.

Thanks. I almost missed that because I had the filter on ACC.

VO and

[nate33]

Or how about this nate,

Let's say you don't like any of the bigs available in this year's class and you want Porter as the BPA. What's the best course for finding a long term big?

Do you sign Martell back if you draft Porter?

Then that next summer when we have all of that cap space, do you let Okafor and/or Ariza walk, plan on Porter being the starting SF, and then sign a really expensive big man in FA?

Like making a max offer for Derrick Favors, Greg Monroe, or DeMarcus Cousins?

Then you would ostensibly have these starters:

1 - Wall
2 - Beal
3 - Porter
4/5 - Nene & a max or near max FA big.

That's a drastic change from the current roster but not necessarily a bad thing. I'm thinking we could afford it given the cap situation you outlined but the depth might be really cheap/bad.

Yes, that's exactly what my plan would be if Noel was off the board and Porter was available. Draft Porter. Resign Martell to a reasonable deal, and plan to let Okafor and Ariza go after their contracts expire. I'd also decline Vesely's 4th year option. I'd probably shop Ariza all season long looking to trade him for a crappy expiring contract plus incentive (a future pick or maybe the right to swap picks). The goal would be to enter the 2014 season with:

1 Wall
2 Beal/Webster
3 Porter/Webster
4/5 Nene
4/5 max free agent
4/5 2014 draft pick

There's a good chance that that "max free agent" doesn't pan out too well. There aren't that many great guys available that aren't RFA free agents. I'd take a shot at acquiring them, with a 2-year extension for Okafor as my backup plan.

Obviously, plans can change. If a quality stretch four becomes available prior to 2014, maybe we just go ahead and trade for him and then plan to just resign Okafor to complete the 3-big rotation.

[stevemcqueen1]

So you mean he is a basketball player. Thats good. I like drafting basketball players vs track stars. Now if you are a basketball player and have great athleticism, I'll take that as well.

For me, I'm putting a premium on actual basketball skills. I really don't want any projects. Skills and a rock solid personality with smarts and drive. A team first player. Preferably that can defend their position.

Athleticism is important though, particularly for perimeter players. It's often what distinguishes stars from merely good role players. All Stars what you tend to get from marrying great athleticism with skills. Skills can be developed over time.

And athletic projects can pay huge dividends. Just because we've failed to develop them in the past doesn't mean it can't be done. Russell Westbrook and Paul George are recent examples of hyper athletic projects that panned out big time. Getting a guy like that can change your franchise. And sometimes the super skilled guys who aren't overly athletic pan out but plateau at an unsatisfactory level like Tyreke Evans and Evan Turner. You could end up second guessing that pick for the rest of their career even though it was a successful pick. How much better off would Philly be right now if they'd passed on the "safe" pick in Turner and swung for the high upside project in DeMarcus Cousins, Paul George, or Derrick Favors?

Upside is defiitely important in the draft, particularly with early picks.

But it all depends on the specific situation you're in on draft day. First and foremost you have to accurately evaluate the available talent. Then perhaps there really isn't a high upside player available to draft. Perhaps that guy has a personality you know doesn't fit with your organization. Perhaps you've already got a young player at his position that would block his minutes.

Specifically in reference to Porter, it could certainly be a situation that he's the highest upside player at any position available when we draft. There needs to be a balance struck between skills & aptitude for learning, athleticism, intelligence, personality, work ethic, etc.

[closg00]

I would absolutely give a max offer for Greg Monroe. I'd offer the max and let him date my sister.

Monroe would go #1 in a draft Re-do.

[WizTom]

Looking at the 2011 draft. Wizards had #6 and #18... Vesely and Singleton.

They could of drafted Vucevic and Faried.

But of course, NOBODY could of made those picks or had any idea those 2 players would be any good.

Don't forget Chandler Parsons in the second round. Or Lavoy Allen. But Chandler Parsons. Really.

The 2011 draft was crippling.

Every player drafted between Vesely and Faried looks to some degree to be worth more than we got except maybe one of the Morris twins, Nolan Smith and Singleton.

That's what I call a whiff.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Looking at the 2011 draft. Wizards had #6 and #18... Vesely and Singleton.

They could of drafted Vucevic and Faried.

But of course, NOBODY could of made those picks or had any idea those 2 players would be any good.

Don't forget Chandler Parsons in the second round. Or Lavoy Allen. But Chandler Parsons. Really.

The 2011 draft was crippling.

Every player drafted between Vesely and Faried looks to some degree to be worth more than we got except maybe one of the Morris twins, Nolan Smith and Singleton.

That's what I call a whiff.

Good call, yeah I really wanted Parsons in the 2nd round. We had a need for a SF who could shoot, and Parsons was SEC Player of the Year.

Vucevic, Faried, Parsons... that would of been a great draft.

What could of been.

[Floater]

Oladipo has that Jordan Crawford hunch going on.