Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[gambitx777]

I completely see the Oden risk for Noel. However I don't see the Thabeet possibility. If he is healthy, but not a star, I think his offensive production will at least be similar to Okafor's.

Well I hear that his BB IQ is not all that great, so I am worried about the NBA game might be to much for him mentally.

Idk I just think that he has a much higher potential to bust than others.

[stevemcqueen1]

Noel has a good bball IQ. You can't be as brilliant a defender and passer as him without having a great bball IQ.

[Knighthonor]

Why is Victor Oladipo not a top 3 pick?
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk4XNbRYhKA[/youtube]

[pancakes3]

I completely see the Oden risk for Noel. However I don't see the Thabeet possibility. If he is healthy, but not a star, I think his offensive production will at least be similar to Okafor's.

Well I hear that his BB IQ is not all that great, so I am worried about the NBA game might be to much for him mentally.

Idk I just think that he has a much higher potential to bust than others.

I can see how a lot of people assume that "raw offensively" is automatically translated to "low bbiq" but as mcqueen noted, he has very good defensive instincts as well as being a pretty good passer despite the lack of post moves. As for bust potential? He'll always have his size. Kwame was a monumental bust but he stuck in the league longer than say... Dejuan Wagner?

[doclinkin]

Oh and here's a high school game of Porter's with some throw downs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESJUP9ebW4w

What I like best is that every single highlight on that reel started with good defense by Porter. In highschool. Kid gets it.

My takeaways from the various interviews and clips of OP2's visit with the Wiz:

He was 19 yrs old last month, damn straight he will add strength, size and weight. He already looks more solid after working with a trainer the past few months.

He's a G-town kid, they all stick together and work with each other and improve in the offseason. They come back here, which will tend to pull other players into that circuit as well instead of playing glorified AAU ball in summer showoff circuits. Boring for us, who get greedy for visuals in the long wait for fall ball, but better for his development and that of the team.

I loved the story that he skipped the baby all-star circuit to stay in the gym which I knew about -- but ESPECIALLY the part that he was willing to take a job as a maintenance man in order to have keys to the gym. That puts the 'school' in old school. Otto Porter Jr, OP2, Opie Dos, The Janitor. 'Maintenance Man' putting in the work.

Love the idea that even if he happens to go #1 overall he still considers himself an underdog and has to work hard, stay humble.

I'm sold. On intangibles alone he's the ideal fit. But he fits a need and his chemistry with Beal and John Wall looks to fizz and hiss and crackle and glow like a miracle of cold fusion. Doesn't have to be the perfect best player in the draft to be the perfect fit. But he is the most complete PLAYER in the draft, regardless of overall talent. I see steady and constant improvement from him, and that is all you can ask of yourself. His ceiling may not be as high as other talents, but he will get there quicker and chip away at that ceiling with whatever tools he's got in his kit. Maintenance man.

[Jay81]

I watched the porter video. He really needs to get stronger and hate the fact that he didnt dunk.

We should take a closer look at zeller and victor O before we make our decision

[doclinkin]

I watched the porter video. He really needs to get stronger and hate the fact that he didnt dunk.

We should take a closer look at zeller and victor O before we make our decision

Since Ji is never right, now I want Porter more than ever. Are we due a snowstorm any time soon?

[Ruzious]

I didn't see much of Zeller other than the Big 10 championship game and the NCAA tournament and he struggled in all those games. BTW, here are Zeller's highlights vs Syracuse.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPlWUrG0AC0

I also think what's hurts Zeller's case is that Mitch McGary was able to carve up Syracuse's zone. I wouldn't rule out taking Zeller because of a few bad games because he played so well in other games although I would probably pass on him at #3.

When it mattered, he was invisible. Very good college player but no way is he a top five pick.

This is a dumb, generic complaint that isn't even true. Was he invisible when he won Indiana the game against Michigan to help win the Big 10 title outright?

Agreed. Considering that he made basketball huge again in Indiana in his freshman year - with a tremendous season topped off with a 20 point 7 rebound game deep in the NCAA Tournament against Anthony Davis and Kentucky - a team with a front court that many NBA teams would love to have. Saying that guy goes invisible when it matters... I think your reply was appropriate.

[sfam]

sfam

I know it was a long post so maybe it was hard to digest all that was in there. But I don't think I said no one at #3 would have an impact in the league.

I guess in a nut shell I was trying to say, I think that because there isn't the quality at the top of this draft that we would normally see in a top 5, that people are making more of the players at the top then they really are. And because of team fit in the draft, I think Burke is getting less valued then he should be. Burke is a top 5 talent in this draft. Its just not a lot of those top drafting teams need a PG.

This is not an ideal time to have a top 5 pick.

I personally also think we have our starters set. So the combination of those two things is really bad timing.

If I wanted to keep what they have rolling and use the top pick straight up, go with Len or Noel. They fit right in and you can resign Okafor for two year and at the right time, you make the transition. Len would obviously be ready to produce before Noel and he is bigger with more offensive skills, so you pick Len.

If you don't evaluate Len to be that player, address the teams next biggest weakness, Beal injury protection and a scoring back up SG... That McLemore or VO Both fit right in without putting pressure on the roster regarding changing starters or anything. Wall and Beal are the franchise. Everyone knows that.

Or Wall insurance and a back up PG, thats Burke.

But any of Burke, McLemore or VO would likely get traded in a year or two. Which is fine. Its over spending to use your #3 for a back up, but those players would retain value that can get cashed in later for a trade and also help a ton next year.

So no, I am not undervaluing the draft. I am just constructing an approach that has what I believe to be the least chance of screwing things up, while also helping the team the best right away and maintaining that #3s value for the future when it becomes more clear what is the next right piece to add.

We have 2 quality experienced SF already, we don't need Otto or Bennett.

I understood your post just fine. You even underlined where you thought it was almost a bad thing that we have the #3 pick instead of the #8 pick. You also think our starting lineup is just ducky. I think there are other teams in the league with better starting lineups than ours - far better in fact. Bottom line, we aren't a championship contender right now, and adding one more role player won't change that. I have little confidence in the slow build approach especially when we have a unique opportunity to get someone at the top of the draft. We absolutely should be going for gold with this pick. Playing it safe pretty much equals opportunity lost. We may never the the next "right piece to add" - we can get that key building block now.

And again, if EG thinks Porter is the guy who will be that impact player, I'm fine with the pick. If he drafts Porter for the reasons you state, he is in essence looking for a comfortable home in the middle of the playoffs, not a contender.

[tontoz]

I'd rather use the Spurs as my model organization to emulate than make decisions based on the failings of the Clippers and Bobcats.

RIF

Where did i say anything about using any team as a model to emulate? We were talking about fan expections of draft picks.

There were a bunch of people on here that were happy with the Singleton pick at the time. Now. not so much.

The Spurs are the exception to the rule. Most GMs don't do a good job evaluating draft talent, something Dat has pointed out time and again.

[GhostsOfGil]

http://www.monumentalnetwork.com/videos ... /index.jsp

Good video on Porter ^

[deneem4]

I got a feeling one of these top drafting teams going to end up with 2 top 10 draft picks...and the idea of op and bennet playing together is mind blowing

[Nivek]

Regarding the conversation a couple pages back about which team to "ask" about the value of draft pick, I think the answer would be the same for most teams. The draft isn't of less value to Charlotte or Washington or Sacramento because they use their picks poorly. Their bad picks and sustained losing highlights the value of getting those picks correct.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Thanks for posting, key, and I agree with your assessment -- release is a little low (and he also brings the ball down much lower than he needs to), but there's a clear competence there.

While my clear preference remains for Porter, if he's off the board I think the Wiz could do a lot worse than Zeller at #3. No, he's not going to be a dominant defensive center, but I have a hard team seeing how he doesn't help a team offensively. It would be a low risk, low reward proposition.

If he were available in some sort of good trade down scenario, I'd consider it, especially if Porter is off the board.

Every time Zeller's name comes up, I keep trying to think of why he shouldn't go in the top 3 or 4, and I'm having trouble coming up with a good answer. He is a freak athlete. He was a very productive player in college. He is a winner. He is an extremely hard worker. He is skilled in the post and out on the perimeter. He plays a position of need.

Are we overthinking this? Why not just take him and be happy?

I won't be unhappy because he will score a lot.

I prefer the points in the paint and midrange game of Olynyk to Zeller's athleticism. KO scores through contact and he can score at the NBA three point line. Seems to me Zellet is a transition scorer and a pure PF. I think Olynyk would fit a need better because he should score well in half court.

Instead of Zeller at three I would explore a draft night trade down for a value pick at #9,12, or 15. McCollum. Len and Adams would also be considerations in a trade down. I don't believe I am over thinking Zeller. He's probably solid at three but I'd go another way.

[tontoz]

Folks talk about league average as if that's an insult. I think Zeller will be better than that, but when I did draft research on 4-year production by draft slot, the third pick (at least according to PER) on average wasn't much better than average.

I am assuming the "folks" you were talking about here were fans. If you were talking about something else then by all means please correct me.

And fans routinely overrate draft picks, both before and immediately after they are made.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I'm am not saying any of these are likely but thats the point. I doubt, the cats, or sun give up any thing to move up 2 or 3 spots. But these other teams looking to start a rebuild or teams that do not get in to the loto often might look to grab that pick for a piece that they do not want, are unlikely to keep, or feel that they can live with out.

Depending on your analysis of the class it seems to be a "4 to 7" player draft. Noel, Porter, McLemore and Oladipo seem project pretty clearly to NBA starters. I think Bennett, Len and Burke are also included in that group by some. Some may also like Zeller and McCollum.

So I agree teams in the first 4 or 5 picks, don't have a ton of interest in moving up. Any movement in that area will likely be shuffling a spot or two for a late 1st or young prospect. To get the first, I think you are looking at a team in the second half of the lotto with significant assets and a desire to tank. The Bucks may be one such team. They have a couple young bigs and the much discussed Ersan. They also are in perfect position to push the reset button with their team.

Portland, OKC and Philly would also have intriguing assets to offer if they are really high on Noel.

My analysis of this draft is that lottery will contain a couple of busts. There wii likely be many quality mid to late second round picks who outperform players selected much earlier in round one. I can foresee future all star players, two possibly three, that go in the teens or twenties and one of those round two. There will be a future starter or two that goes undrafted. This draft IMO will mirror 2009. A lot of misses by GMs.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_NBA_Draft

I remember posting Wesley Matthews' team site photo, his stats, and about his dad having been a former Washington Bullet. He fit a need, too. He went undrafted. This draft will have a Wes Matthews. Joshua Akognon was a guy I wanted when Wall was hurt. Akognon signed multiyear with Dalllas. He and Garrett Temple were undrafted 2009.

This draft has stud seniors who IMO will perform quite well despite most be underrated in mock drafts. There could be 10 high impact players and 5 all stars or more in this draft.

There will be bigs who flat out bust.

There will be at least one--but I think three--stud below-the-radar PGs.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Names not talked up enough?

Reggie Bullock, Mike Muscala, Erick Green, Isaiah Canaan, Phil Pressey, Nate Wolters, Trevor Mbekwe, DJ Stephens, Zeke Marshall, Juvonte Reddic, Jack Cooley, Lorenzo Brown, Brandon Paul, Michael Snaer, Khalid Wyatt, Jackie Carmichael, CJ Leslie (hunch says Leslie and Brown are on Wizards draft radar), Kadjii, Hill

I think there could be another Arenas, Millsap, Boozer in round two. Just like we're watching # 46 Danny Green this playoffs, in 4 or 5 years I foresee at least three or four of these players on rosters.

[Rafael122]

Noel up to 218 pounds, great news, he keeps giving the Cavs a reason not to draft him.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

We absolutely should be going for gold with this pick. Playing it safe pretty much equals opportunity lost. We may never the the next "right piece to add" - we can get that key building block now.

And again, if EG thinks Porter is the guy who will be that impact player, I'm fine with the pick. If he drafts Porter for the reasons you state, he is in essence looking for a comfortable home in the middle of the playoffs, not a contender.

Reading this I keep thinking about the movie Raging Bull "I coulda been a contenda".

I agree with you're general premise. I just doubt that Bennett is the "gold" of this draft. IMO Porter does everything Bennett does, but also excels defensively, and has great size for his position rather than being undersized. Bennett's value is as a stretch 4 and his outside shooting. IMO we can get Porter at 3 as our starting SF and building block, and at 38 Erik Murphy the stretch 4 off the bench.

We'd have the foundation of an excellent perimeter and defense, with plenty of shooters to spread the floor (Beal, Porter, Webster, Murphy, Price, Ariza). Although I see Ariza gone after this season, or moved before for another player.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Screw it. Zeller is now 3rd on my draft board behind Noel and Porter. I just don't see how he won't succeed in this league. At worst, he'll be a better-shooting Nick Collison - and that's a starter. At best, he's Chris Bosh - and that's an All Star.

I think he can raise the release point of his jumper without too much difficulty. I did the same thing myself about a year ago while coming off my ACL injury. I figured I wouldn't get as much elevation anymore so I could compensate by raising my release point. Within a month or two, I had my new form down and shot as well as always (a little better, actually). And that's just with a few hours of shooting around in the gym. Zeller is going to shoot more in a week than I did in two months.

Well Zeller's now 4th on my board so I understand why folks are high on him. Mines is more of a tepid endorsement however, a sign of why I think the draft is weak at the top of the lottery. Only reasons I have him over Len is because of Len's foot injury and over Olynyk b/c Olynyk doesn't have a clear position to defend. But if I watch some scouting video of getting bullied by Trevor Mbakwe or abused by Syracuse's frontline of future Adriatic League all-stars then he might slip again on my board.

If I knew Len would stay healthy, because of Wall and the veterans, I would definitely pick Len over Zeller because of Len's finishing at the rim, his shot blocking, his ability to defend centers, and his potential. I like Len's touch at the line. He's got physical size and more potential, good and bad, than Zeller.

I think Len's last two games, even with hurt feet showed beast potential. Unfortunately, Oden, Walton, Ilgauskas, and Yao Ming are immobile. Alex is 20 and already under the knife with stress reactive feet. His pods show bust potential. He also gets lost on the court like Carmen San Diego at times. Where in the world is Alex Len? Greats don't do that often.