2015 Draft Thread - Part 1

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I am curious what you all think about Trey Kyle's as a prospect? He's got good size and seems well coordinated. I haven't seen enough of him yet to form an opinion on him though.


Also, are there any good 2nd round prospects in the Garrett Temple mold that might be good for us to target?

[gambitx777]

Wesley Saunders would be a solid pick too. But again, I would rather Wall push EG to draft his pals who have talent than letting Eg pick some euro trash.

[nuposse04]

http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket ... all-men/d1

I figure this goes here. Lots of NBA talent in the bottom half of the west region.

[nuposse04]

http://www.sbnation.com/2015/3/17/82197 ... t-arkansas

we need a stretch 4, I almost hope Arkansas has a bad tourney so he may drop to us.

[Dark Faze]

I like Tyus Jones. Undersized but a potential sixth man scorer is a tremendous need for this team right now. He was what, a top 3 ranked overall player coming out of high school? Elite shooter--39 % on over 100 attempts from deep as a freshmen, high assist rate, and an 89% FT rate.

I don't project Kaminsky being good at the next level. His junior and senior seriors were the first years he put up respectable shooting numbers from deep, and he's a career 76% free throw shooter. His highest amount of 3pt attempts on a season was 98 as a JR. Basically--he's played in the same system for 4 years and it looks like he's just very comfortable with what he's doing. Throw him in the NBA and chances are his shot is going to fall flat. Much better shooters than him, I mean much better shooters have struggled once coming to the league. Kaminsky reminds me of guys like Bennett and Derrick Williams who shoot the college three pretty good and then don't bring that element of their game to the NBA.

[Ruzious]

I like Tyus Jones. Undersized but a potential sixth man scorer is a tremendous need for this team right now. He was what, a top 3 ranked overall player coming out of high school? Elite shooter--39 % on over 100 attempts from deep as a freshmen, high assist rate, and an 89% FT rate.

I don't project Kaminsky being good at the next level. His junior and senior seriors were the first years he put up respectable shooting numbers from deep, and he's a career 76% free throw shooter. His highest amount of 3pt attempts on a season was 98 as a JR. Basically--he's played in the same system for 4 years and it looks like he's just very comfortable with what he's doing. Throw him in the NBA and chances are his shot is going to fall flat. Much better shooters than him, I mean much better shooters have struggled once coming to the league. Kaminsky reminds me of guys like Bennett and Derrick Williams who shoot the college three pretty good and then don't bring that element of their game to the NBA.

Agree on Jones; disagree on Kaminsky. Jones is absurdly underrated - I seem him 25-27 on draftexpress.com and nbadraft.net. He's still 18 and made the adjustment to playing off-ball to accommodate Cook. People say he's not athletic enough to go high, but what has this supposed lack of athleticism prevented him from doing? I know the Wiz need a stretch 4, but if it comes down to Portis vs Jones when the Wiz pick, I pick Jones.

I don't buy the Derrick Wiliams and Bennett comps to Kaminsky. Kaminsky's always had 3 point range - he didn't just show it in a short streak of games. Don't penalize him for being good enough shooting inside that Wiscy played him a lot near the basket. He's such a skilled player that Wiscy often runs their offense through him - and they're one of the top 5 most efficient offenses in the NCAA - last I checked (a few weeks ago). That's not the case with typical stretch 4's and 5's. And the guy's a legit 7 footer who moves pretty well. He had 3 steals and 3 blocks the other day - he's not the defensive stiff some make him out to be.

[Dark Faze]

The comparison to Williams and Bennett wasn't to say at all that they were similar players, just that they were thought to be reasonably good shooters who could project that to the pros.

It took Frank until his senior year to shoot 55% from the field. Not exactly dominant. Neither his percentage nor his free throw rate is as good as you make him out to be. He looks like a player who's taking advantage of being a 7 foot senior with an offense game that's pretty varied. That doesn't mean anything for the NBA game at all though.

[Ruzious]

The comparison to Williams and Bennett wasn't to say at all that they were similar players, just that they were thought to be reasonably good shooters who could project that to the pros.

It took Frank until his senior year to shoot 55% from the field. Not exactly dominant. Neither his percentage nor his free throw rate is as good as you make him out to be. He looks like a player who's taking advantage of being a 7 foot senior with an offense game that's pretty varied. That doesn't mean anything for the NBA game at all though.

I don't think you can make a good case that he's not a very good offensive player and shooter and scorer. His 2 point FG% from year 1 (when he didn't play much) to year 4 is 61.9, 54.7, 58.2, and 59.8. His TS %'s were 50, 56, 61, and 63. His FT % has been consistently at 76%. I think it's silly to say that having varied offensive skills doesn't mean anything for the NBA game at all. Maybe he will and maybe he won't have an offense run through him, but his varied skills should be useful in the NBA - especially in the pick n roll and pick n pop NBA.

[Severn Hoos]

Kaminsky is interesting to me, because he may end up testing one of my fundamental draft hypotheses, which states that if a guy has not shown to be dominant by age 20, he probably never will be. There have been lots of college guys with "breakout" seasons as Juniors or Seniors, who have NBA teams fall in love with them only to be disappointed to find that they are mediocre at best. Derrick Williams, Wesley Johnson, Jordan Hill, Hilton Armstrong - the list goes on and on.

Perhaps the most telling recent example is Thomas Robinson. During his Junior year, he got a lot of love here on the board, helped in no small part by his DC roots. The problem was, he didn't really show anything until that Junior year. At the time, some posters kept pointing to his per minute stats, efficiency, etc. to say that he was the same player, just being given more time and touches to prove himself. Besides, he didn't play much his first two years because he was stuck behind the Morris twins.

The problem I had with that is that the Morris twins - while nice players and surprisingly (to me) effective pros, weren't exactly world-beaters. If you can't force your way into a frontcourt because of Marcus & Markieff, maybe you won't be displacing grown men in the NBA a year later. And if the domination is based on being a 21-year old going against 18 and 19-year olds, then that advantage will be long gone in the pros.

I can hear you now - "I wish we had Jordan Hill! He's averaging 12 & 8 and has good advanced stats!" To which I would respond - Yes, on his 3rd team, in his 6th season, his first as a full time starter, and his team is beyond awful.

That's not to say I wouldn't want Jordan Hill. Just that using a Lottery pick on him is a bad idea.

The profile mentioned above (Late Bloomer, upperclassman, started slow but dominated college ball as Junior/Senior) tends to pan out (at best) to be a role player. And there's nothing wrong with being a role player - you need several of them on any successful team. That description fits probably half of the Spurs roster, after all.

So back to Kaminsky - I definitely don't see stardom in him. But I do see a role player, perhaps a very high level role player at that. The trends - shooting, scoring, rebounding, even fouls - are all positive. But he's doing it against a lot of teenagers.

I'd be glad to take him, but with the understanding that you'd be looking at a 3rd or 4th Big in your rotation. Again - nothing wrong with that, and would be a bargain throughout his rookie contract if he reaches that level. It's not a swing-for-the-fences pick, and in my opinion, that's a good thing (shudders thinking of Swaggy P, JaVale, and Dray).

[Dark Faze]

A few things

My issue isn't whether I think he can be a good player. I think he has potential as a roleplayer off the bench. My main thing is, a lot of the value people have in him is as a stretch big, yet the sample size on his long ball is pretty poor for a senior in college. Not only that, if you're an NBA talent at all, I mean, again, having a varied offensive game as a 7 foot senior is going to result in numbers if you're an NBA talent. I think he's an NBA talent, but I don't think he's worthy of a 1st.

If he was putting up these numbers as a fresh, maybe even as a sophmore, I'd like love the upside. As a fourth year guy? Nah, I'm not impressed. And you've got to look at 1st round picks as starters. You can't think of these picks as "well this guy might help", you have to make picks with the absolute expectation that he can be a starting level NBA player.

[Ruzious]

Kaminsky is interesting to me, because he may end up testing one of my fundamental draft hypotheses, which states that if a guy has not shown to be dominant by age 20, he probably never will be. There have been lots of college guys with "breakout" seasons as Juniors or Seniors, who have NBA teams fall in love with them only to be disappointed to find that they are mediocre at best. Derrick Williams, Wesley Johnson, Jordan Hill, Hilton Armstrong - the list goes on and on.

Except Kaminsky was dominant last season - and he was 20 years old the entire season. And he shined in the postseason. For the season, he had a 29.7 PER and 61% TS%. Per 40 minutes, he average 21.7 pts, 9.8 boards, 2.7 blocks, 1.1 steals, and only 1.6 to's. He's better this season, but that's a good thing - not a bad thing. I think you 2 are really reaching to downgrade the guy.

Btw, Hilton Armstrong? His explosion as a senior was a 19.7 PER - 10 points lower than Kaminsky's junior year and 6.1 lower than his sophomore year. Kaminsky wasn't chopped liver as a 19 year old sophomore with a 25.8 PER and 56% TS%. Draftexpress has him now at the 10th pick. That's about where he should go.

[The Consiglieri]

I just view him as a 7+ foot body that can do a couple of things and will ride the bench for most of his career, playing at the back end of the rotation, seeing some minutes, but being a bit of a drifter, from roster to roster after his first contract. He won't be a flat out bust, you can't teach 7 feet after all, but I don't believe he'll be a solid, good or great pro. I've just seen this story 1,000,000 times, and it has played out the same 999,998 of them. I'm just not buying it period. I'd rather draft some one who has the potential to be someone down the line. I'd rather speculate on a guy with a much lower floor, but a much higher ceiling too, good examples that some of us liked in the past include Giannis, Karasev, Gobert, or a Snell circa '13. That sorta thing. Guys that are interesting, and if everything fell right, might be a special player. To me taking him is kind of like grabbing Muscala in '13, nice college player, maybe he can get it done, maybe not, but just like Muscala was available at 44, Kaminsky should be available later. I know he won't be, but I see no reason for using a pick inside the top 20 on a guy who matches a type that has failed a billion times the past two decades alone. Unathletic 7 footer who didn't really get it done until he was much older than his prime elite competition, then suddenly was a monster.

He's having a great college year, he should be able to help out, but can't we do better than that between 16-20? '13 was a crummy draft and there were 3 guys available around that slot that were about 100x as interesting to me as Kaminsky would be this year. Hope I'm dead wrong about him if we take him, and I've been wrong about a couple of guys like him recently (a plumlee, and Olynyk, neither of whom interested me, and both of whom have been much better than I expected).

[Ruzious]

Muscala's actually played very well this season - in limited minutes. But he never showed anywhere near the shooting range that Kaminsky has. And while Kaminsky is on the thin side, he's still got about 15 pounds on Muscala. I think Muscala is showing he has a nice NBA future, and Kaminsky is clearly a better prospect because of those range and size differences.

[No-Man]

I have Washington going Guard in all of my Mocks, and I think it is what makes more sense, either Dunn or Grant.

[Dat2U]

What makes Kaminsky probably really solid as a pro is the fact he's a skilled 7-0 footer. These guys generally don't fail as pros. Now some guys are labeled as skilled but really aren't (like Anthony Bennett) but in general I'd rather have an unathletic (Olynyk) or marginally athletic big that has a ton of skill (Kaminsky) versus a run & jump big who offers very little skill wise unless that run & jump big is very unique in his own right (Noel).

[Ruzious]

I have Washington going Guard in all of my Mocks, and I think it is what makes more sense, either Dunn or Grant.

And Dunn and Grant - along with Tyus Jones (I group those 3 together) are probably all more likely to be there than Kaminsky and Portis. So yeah, I think odds are favoring Washington ending up with a quality guard. But I don't trust Grunfeld making a smart choice here. He's been known to take chances on athletes that aren't so good at basketball.

[Severn Hoos]

Kaminsky is interesting to me, because he may end up testing one of my fundamental draft hypotheses, which states that if a guy has not shown to be dominant by age 20, he probably never will be. There have been lots of college guys with "breakout" seasons as Juniors or Seniors, who have NBA teams fall in love with them only to be disappointed to find that they are mediocre at best. Derrick Williams, Wesley Johnson, Jordan Hill, Hilton Armstrong - the list goes on and on.

Except Kaminsky was dominant last season - and he was 20 years old the entire season. And he shined in the postseason. For the season, he had a 29.7 PER and 61% TS%. Per 40 minutes, he average 21.7 pts, 9.8 boards, 2.7 blocks, 1.1 steals, and only 1.6 to's. He's better this season, but that's a good thing - not a bad thing. I think you 2 are really reaching to downgrade the guy.

Btw, Hilton Armstrong? His explosion as a senior was a 19.7 PER - 10 points lower than Kaminsky's junior year and 6.1 lower than his sophomore year. Kaminsky wasn't chopped liver as a 19 year old sophomore with a 25.8 PER and 56% TS%. Draftexpress has him now at the 10th pick. That's about where he should go.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a big fan of Kaminsky and if he's the pick for the Wiz, I will be thrilled. What I'm saying is that he's likely to be more of a role player (perhaps a role player "extraordinaire") than any kind of star. And if he does creep into the top 10, I'm afraid whatever team takes him will end up disappointed in the long run, IF they are expecting a star/above-average starter.

That factor is often complicated by the fact that Lottery teams are typically in the Lottery for a reasons, so it's more likely he'll be misused or underdeveloped, or just wouldn't pan out the way he would if he were on a team that would really know how to use him. (The Suns would be the obvious exception here, as a likely Lottery team that I think would know how to use him properly.)

And sorry to go back to Robinson (OK, no I'm not), but his Junior year and first three year trendline looks very similar to Kaminsky's. Obviously, they do it in very different ways (Kaminsky better shooter & more diverse offense, Robinson a much better rebounder), but their overall effectiveness was at least similar through 3 years. Which begs the question - what if Kaminsky had left last year? What if Robinson had stayed for his Senior year? We'll never know, of course - what we do know if that Robinson was a significant disappointment as a Lottery pick. (While his Final Four opponent and quasi-doppleganger Sullinger has been a positive/surprise for a guy picked in the 20s.)

So I like Frank, I hope he's there, would love to see him & Wall run P&R for the next 5-10 years. What's more, I hope he breaks the mold and is a real late bloomer who becomes so much more on the next level. In fact, the last guy I can think of who made that jump was Googs. Maybe it only applies to the white guys!

[Ruzious]

We definitely differ on Kaminsky. I'm not saying he's a star, but he'll be a very good starter - and he's not a late bloomer by any stretch. He's been very good for 3 full seasons - and he's still 21.

I recall pointing out Robinson obvious red flags before he got drafted. Someone here (other than you) was pushing him very hard as a target for the Wiz. He barely shot 50%. For a big man who rarely shot from more than 10 feet, that's a BIG red flag. And he had a high turnover rate - double what Kaminsky's is - and an absurdly high foul rate his first 2 seasons. And he wasn't a big blocks/steals guy, so the only thing to recommend about him was he was an excellent rebounder. He still is, btw. He hasn't changed much and shouldn't be considered much of a surprise.

When YODA is up and running, I'd like to hear how it rates Kaminsky vs TomRob.

[Dark Faze]

Barely anyone wanted Robinson.

And Franks Jr. Season wasn't amazing. He was a 14 and 6 player as a 7 footer in his third year. Nice efficiency, but he didn't put up big numbers until his senior year.

And I was as big of an Olynyk fan as anyone here. WHEN you do what you do matters a ton in CBB. Olynyk put up 18 and 8 as a Jr for the Zags in 26 minutes a game. So much more craftier than Frank as well with his dribble drive game. Loved that kid.

Frank not so much. His offense won't make up for how much he gets murdered by opposing bigs.

[Ruzious]

Barely anyone wanted Robinson.

And Franks Jr. Season wasn't amazing. He was a 14 and 6 player as a 7 footer in his third year. Nice efficiency, but he didn't put up big numbers until his senior year.

And I was as big of an Olynyk fan as anyone here. WHEN you do what you do matters a ton in CBB. Olynyk put up 18 and 8 as a Jr for the Zags in 26 minutes a game. So much more craftier than Frank as well with his dribble drive game. Loved that kid.

Frank not so much. His offense won't make up for how much he gets murdered by opposing bigs.

This is getting a bit time-consuming, so this is it for me defending a player who shouldn't need defending. Frank put up PERs of 25.8 and 29.7 his soph and junior years, so clearly he was productive - not just efficient. I don't care what his per game numbers were; it's his per minute numbers that tell you what kind of ability a college player has.

And Olynyk's junior year was effectively his senior year - he skipped a year when he transferred. He had a great year - no question - after doing pretty much nothing for 3 years. The scouting videos of his defense looked terrible. Kaminsky hasn't looked that bad, imo. He definitely moves his feet better defensively and has shown the ability to defend on the perimeter - which is something Olynyk can't do. Frank could get bullied by bigger centers - but he can play the 4 - and I think that's his best position.