John Wall Appreciation Thread - Part III

[Higga]

I think this is the year Wall ends up as a fringe MVP candidate. He won't won it, but I could see him end up like 5th or 6th in voting. Although if he has a 20/10 season like Nash did those years in Phoenix(better D but less effective 3 point shooter), he could win it. It'll probably go to Lebron though.

[nate33]

I think this is the year Wall ends up as a fringe MVP candidate. He won't won it, but I could see him end up like 5th or 6th in voting. Although if he has a 20/10 season like Nash did those years in Phoenix(better D but less effective 3 point shooter), he could win it. It'll probably go to Lebron though.

I don't think so. I think Wall is pretty near his peak. I don't see him cracking the top 8 of NBA players. He's still too inefficient with his shooting percentages and turnover rate. I'm not hating. I think it's awesome that we have a guy who is arguably the 2nd best player in the East and a top 10-15 player overall. I just don't see how he can get ahead of guys like Lebron, Durant, Davis, Curry, Harden and Paul. They're just too good.

[Wizardspride]

I think this is the year Wall ends up as a fringe MVP candidate. He won't won it, but I could see him end up like 5th or 6th in voting. Although if he has a 20/10 season like Nash did those years in Phoenix(better D but less effective 3 point shooter), he could win it. It'll probably go to Lebron though.

I don't think so. I think Wall is pretty near his peak. I don't see him cracking the top 8 of NBA players. He's still too inefficient with his shooting percentages and turnover rate. I'm not hating. I think it's awesome that we have a guy who is arguably the 2nd best player in the East and a top 10-15 player overall. I just don't see how he can get ahead of guys like Lebron, Durant, Davis, Curry, Harden and Paul. They're just too good.

I'm not sure Wall is near his peak.

Heck, just shooting 36-37% from 3 would radically alter his game imo.

And considering he shot 35% not that long ago I think it's quite feasible.

[nuposse04]

Wall will probably become a decent 3 pt shooter, not elite in time, question is shot selection. If this whole wave of more 3s in camp also trickles down to him then it should yield some results. Also him taking guys in the post should help his efficiency some. I'm not sure if spreading the floor more will lead to a lower TO% but we shall see.

[nate33]

I suspect that Wall is near his physical peak, and any incremental gains he makes in fundamentals will be offset by incremental losses in speed and reaction time. The one caveat is that Wall may get one more surge in production due to superior spacing in the new offensive scheme. Maybe he jumps to a slightly higher plateau before that physical decline starts to offset his improvement in fundamentals.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

As far as I'm concerned John Wall is boss man now after Wittman.

He's still a young guy but for basketball purposes he's the MFn man.

John's in his early fathering years IMO. Kelly Oubre competes on the court but I bet he thinks of John as a father figure.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I suspect that Wall is near his physical peak, and any incremental gains he makes in fundamentals will be offset by incremental losses in speed and reaction time. The one caveat is that Wall may get one more surge in production due to superior spacing in the new offensive scheme. Maybe he jumps to a slightly higher plateau before that physical decline starts to offset his improvement in fundamentals.

What excites me most about John Wall is he's going to keep getting sharper and sharper mentally on the court. He can win NBA MVP in the next 5 years the very same way Nash won 2 and Steph Curry won...IF he makes some subtle adjustments and if any of his Wizards teams win championships.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I suspect that Wall is near his physical peak, and any incremental gains he makes in fundamentals will be offset by incremental losses in speed and reaction time. The one caveat is that Wall may get one more surge in production due to superior spacing in the new offensive scheme. Maybe he jumps to a slightly higher plateau before that physical decline starts to offset his improvement in fundamentals.

The new offensive system is the wildcard (in my view anyway) on whether or not Wall has truly peaked. Better spacing, more room to operate, and a reduction in 2pt jumpers could significantly boost his productivity -- even if he doesn't improve his shooting.

[Illmatic12]

Wall's athleticism isn't going anywhere for a while, that's nonsense.

Tony Parker at 30+ yo was still beating everyone off the dribble in the 2014 Finals. CP3 after multiple knee operations still gets to wherever he wants on the court.

If anything, John will gain that 'old man strength' and improved post up ability as he gets older, and he'll refine his touch on floaters and midrange jumpers that would improve his efficiency. His true peak will be around age 28-30 imo.

These are basically the things he has to work on, to be in that top handful of most valuable players:

Basketball Insiders: What aspects of your game did you work on this summer?

John Wall: “I can shoot the three well, but I just need to focus on not taking bad ones – like half-court ones and ones in late shot-clock situations so I can have a good percentage. I’ve been working on my floater a lot, I’ve been working on my post-up game and I’ve been working on improving my defense.”

Threes, floaters, post game. That's it, he doesn't need to become some deadly versatile volume scorer, people should stop waiting for that. That's not his game.

[REDardWIZskin]

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1372991&start=220

Jackson is one of the only PG’s in the NBA who can match up physically with a super-sized guard like Wall (6’4 195 with a 6’9 wingspan).

It’s a little unfair to compare their skill-sets, given that Wall was taken at No. 1 overall and Jackson lasted all the way until pick No. 24. Wall has been pegged as a future superstar since he was 15 while Jackson had to spend three seasons at Boston College to get noticed. The bottom line is the Pistons haven’t had much luck in the lottery, never picking higher than No. 7 in the last decade, while the Wizards have finished in the Top 3 three different times in that span. In an increasingly PG-driven league, Detroit has to figure out a way to make do without the same resources as their competitors.

The beauty of Van Gundy’s scheme is that it can do more with less at the PG position. When Wall went down in the second round of the playoffs last season, Washington was done. When Van Gundy lost Jameer Nelson in 2009, he plugged in Rafer Alston and kept it moving. Would you rather have a good QB with the best WR in the game or a great QB with average ones? When Wall is playing with Nene Hilario and Marcin Gortat upfront, he doesn’t have the same type of driving lanes and space to attack as Jackson when he is playing in Detroit’s four-out system. Even when the Wizards go small with a wing player at PF, they don’t have a roll man anywhere near as capable as Drummond.

If Jackson’s life on the court is significantly easier than Wall’s, he won’t have to be nearly as talented to put up the same type of numbers. That, at least, is what the Pistons were counting on when they gave him John Wall’s contract.

Interesting points here. I'm normally a fan of Tjarks pieces, but he is completely ignoring the offensive philosophy changes that the wizards are preparing to employ as well. Comparing the best of a small sample size from Detroits regular season to wizards regular season and completely ignoring two series from the Wizards in the playoffs.
When Jeremy Lin (whom Tjarks also refereces in this article) was going bonkers in D'antioni's system in NY several years ago I wondered what Wall would do in a similar open style of play. I'm thinking this is about the time we start to see what it looks like.

[nate33]

Wall's athleticism isn't going anywhere for a while, that's nonsense.

Tony Parker at 30+ yo was still beating everyone off the dribble in the 2014 Finals. CP3 after multiple knee operations still gets to wherever he wants on the court.

If anything, John will gain that 'old man strength' and improved post up ability as he gets older, and he'll refine his touch on floaters and midrange jumpers that would improve his efficiency. His true peak will be around age 28-30 imo.

These are basically the things he has to work on, to be in that top handful of most valuable players:

Basketball Insiders: What aspects of your game did you work on this summer?

John Wall: “I can shoot the three well, but I just need to focus on not taking bad ones – like half-court ones and ones in late shot-clock situations so I can have a good percentage. I’ve been working on my floater a lot, I’ve been working on my post-up game and I’ve been working on improving my defense.”

Threes, floaters, post game. That's it, he doesn't need to become some deadly versatile volume scorer, people should stop waiting for that. That's not his game.

I submit that the very notion of Wall working on his floater is an acknowledgement that he can't continue to play like a reckless 24-year old any more. Floaters really aren't a very good shot - even those who do it the best don't do it very well. It's better to take it all the way to the rim and draw the foul. But the reason you don't do that with consistency is because you get hurt - particularly as you age.

[Ruzious]

Wall's athleticism isn't going anywhere for a while, that's nonsense.

Tony Parker at 30+ yo was still beating everyone off the dribble in the 2014 Finals. CP3 after multiple knee operations still gets to wherever he wants on the court.

If anything, John will gain that 'old man strength' and improved post up ability as he gets older, and he'll refine his touch on floaters and midrange jumpers that would improve his efficiency. His true peak will be around age 28-30 imo.

These are basically the things he has to work on, to be in that top handful of most valuable players:

Basketball Insiders: What aspects of your game did you work on this summer?

John Wall: “I can shoot the three well, but I just need to focus on not taking bad ones – like half-court ones and ones in late shot-clock situations so I can have a good percentage. I’ve been working on my floater a lot, I’ve been working on my post-up game and I’ve been working on improving my defense.”

Threes, floaters, post game. That's it, he doesn't need to become some deadly versatile volume scorer, people should stop waiting for that. That's not his game.

I submit that the very notion of Wall working on his floater is an acknowledgement that he can't continue to play like a reckless 24-year old any more. Floaters really aren't a very good shot - even those who do it the best don't do it very well. It's better to take it all the way to the rim and draw the foul. But the reason you don't do that with consistency is because you get hurt - particularly as you age.

I approve your submission, and I'm fine with it as long as - when it's crunch time at the end of a close game - he doesn't settle if he doesn't have to.

[Higga]

I think this is the year Wall ends up as a fringe MVP candidate. He won't won it, but I could see him end up like 5th or 6th in voting. Although if he has a 20/10 season like Nash did those years in Phoenix(better D but less effective 3 point shooter), he could win it. It'll probably go to Lebron though.

I don't think so. I think Wall is pretty near his peak. I don't see him cracking the top 8 of NBA players. He's still too inefficient with his shooting percentages and turnover rate. I'm not hating. I think it's awesome that we have a guy who is arguably the 2nd best player in the East and a top 10-15 player overall. I just don't see how he can get ahead of guys like Lebron, Durant, Davis, Curry, Harden and Paul. They're just too good.

I don't think he's close to his peak yet. Kid just turned 25 a month ago. Nobody peaks at 25 in basketball. He's only going to get smarter and more polished and his athleticism isn't gonna go away for another 5+ years at least.

[Illmatic12]

Wall's athleticism isn't going anywhere for a while, that's nonsense.

Tony Parker at 30+ yo was still beating everyone off the dribble in the 2014 Finals. CP3 after multiple knee operations still gets to wherever he wants on the court.

If anything, John will gain that 'old man strength' and improved post up ability as he gets older, and he'll refine his touch on floaters and midrange jumpers that would improve his efficiency. His true peak will be around age 28-30 imo.

These are basically the things he has to work on, to be in that top handful of most valuable players:

Basketball Insiders: What aspects of your game did you work on this summer?

John Wall: “I can shoot the three well, but I just need to focus on not taking bad ones – like half-court ones and ones in late shot-clock situations so I can have a good percentage. I’ve been working on my floater a lot, I’ve been working on my post-up game and I’ve been working on improving my defense.”

Threes, floaters, post game. That's it, he doesn't need to become some deadly versatile volume scorer, people should stop waiting for that. That's not his game.

I submit that the very notion of Wall working on his floater is an acknowledgement that he can't continue to play like a reckless 24-year old any more. Floaters really aren't a very good shot - even those who do it the best don't do it very well. It's better to take it all the way to the rim and draw the foul. But the reason you don't do that with consistency is because you get hurt - particularly as you age.

Certainly, if you look at Tony Parker he had to develop that in-between floater game to prolong his career.

John seems less interested in drawing fouls at the rim with each passing season, which is a good thing for his body but bad for our offense. However, one sneaky way where he can still draw fouls (without throwing his body around) is by refining his post game and learning to use his size advantage against smaller PGs. In his heyday Andre Miller actually used to post higher FTr than John does now (and I'm talking 28-32yo Dre, so not even like he was a spring chicken).

If Wall perfects some basic spin moves and counters in the post, he's going to get fouled *a lot* by little guys who don't know how to defend backdowns. That accomplishes the same effect of pressuring defenses into foul trouble, but without the hazardous playing style that could put him at risk. Wall is a smart player and he's had even smarter veteran players teaching him the game, he's still years from his peak imo.

[nate33]

If Wall perfects some basic spin moves and counters in the post, he's going to get fouled *a lot* by little guys who don't know how to defend backdowns. That accomplishes the same effect of pressuring defenses into foul trouble, but without the hazardous playing style that could put him at risk. Wall is a smart player and he's had even smarter veteran players teaching him the game, he's still years from his peak imo.

Good point. I'd love to see some of John Wall in the post this year. I understand why it didn't happen much in years past because Gortat and Nene couldn't provide the necessary floor spacing, but it should be feasible this year - particularly when Gortat isn't on the floor.

It might be something that we don't see much of in the regular season, only to have Wittman roll it out in the playoffs to take advantage of some undersized PG like Teague.

[Sluggerface]

I think this is the year Wall ends up as a fringe MVP candidate. He won't won it, but I could see him end up like 5th or 6th in voting. Although if he has a 20/10 season like Nash did those years in Phoenix(better D but less effective 3 point shooter), he could win it. It'll probably go to Lebron though.

I don't think so. I think Wall is pretty near his peak. I don't see him cracking the top 8 of NBA players. He's still too inefficient with his shooting percentages and turnover rate. I'm not hating. I think it's awesome that we have a guy who is arguably the 2nd best player in the East and a top 10-15 player overall. I just don't see how he can get ahead of guys like Lebron, Durant, Davis, Curry, Harden and Paul. They're just too good.

You would be shocked just how much marginally increasing shooting efficiency and slightly cutting down on turnovers can do for ones productivity.

[Sluggerface]

Just watched John's latest interview on Monumental. They brought up the fact that Beal traveled in the last game because he didn't want to shoot a long two. They asked John if he needed to break any habits. Sadly, he didn't bring up anything about limiting his mid-range attempts, but he did recognize that he had opportunities to attack last game and opted to pass to teammates. I think this is the key for John this season. If he can get more shots at the rim instead of always dumping off tough passes to Gortat. He'll essentially be trading potential turnovers for potential free throws.

I'll be extremely disappointed if John can't cut back on his turnovers this season. While it would be nice to see him cut down on his mid-range attempts, upping his free throw rate is something that needs to happen if he's going to take a step to the next level.

[Scoobean]

John Wall is such a fantastic point guard. I think he will continue to improve his skills as his career goes on. I predict Wall will have over 20 PPG and over 10 AST.

[wizfan1984]

Found this today, and didn't see it posted. I figured this is the best thread for it. An introduction to Nate Silver's "CARMELO" basketball forecasting system - with John Wall as the test case:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-were-predicting-nba-player-career/

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

John Wall is such a fantastic point guard. I think he will continue to improve his skills as his career goes on. I predict Wall will have over 20 PPG and over 10 AST.

Agreed on the improve part. His best years may be 2 to 5 years from now, provided Wall stays healthy.