Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5

[hands11]

So I'm looking at the Cavs' books. Salary cap is set at $67.1 million. Lebron is opting out but signing another 1 year deal, for about $23 million. Smith is rumored to be opting out, and they've got Shumpert and Thompson to sign:

Lebron - $23
Mozgov - $4.9
Love - $16.7
Irving - $14.7
Miller - $2.8
Varejao - $9.7
Thompson - $15.8

I put Thompson in there as I think he'll get a max contract. I'm not really sure what I'm trying to get at but it seems to me there's very little room for improvement on this roster. Delly might get $4.5 million just because, they are way over the cap and deep in the luxury tax. I don't see the room for improvement...maybe if Love doesn't come back, they'll have a max slot available but if they bring everyone back, I don't see how they'll win a ring.

What improvement do they need outside of health? Maybe an upgrade over Delly at backup PG because Kyrie is fragile but in all honesty they are loaded and the prohibitive favorite next year assuming they bring everyone back.

They need an upgrade at backup PG and another wing defender/shooter in the mold of Otto/HBarnes/Danny Green as an upgrade over the Miller/JOnes/Marion troika. Maybe that's Matt Barnes or DUnleavy. Cory Joseph would be killer there.

I expect them to be reaaaaaaaaally good next year.

How many wins ?

[hands11]

I don't think folks realize how amazing it was that Cleveland could even get to the Championship and push the Warriors the way that they did considering who they were missing and who got heavy minutes in their place. The Cavs had a 7 man rotation basically. And that featured Delladedova... an end of bench guy with remedial offensive skill and J.R. Brick... a known weak-minded gunner who always fizzles in the big games and didn't have a clue defensively. Those two made life basically impossible for LeBron was they were completely overwhelmed except for one game where Delly played way above his head. Then you had James Jones getting major minutes which means he's getting exposed defensively. Who was Cleveland's 2nd best player? Tristan Thompson? Enough said.

Cleveland should be MASSIVE favorites next year.

Ehh, I don't know man. Lebron had Irving for the Bulls series, and the Bulls, predictably couldn't make shots. Then they steamrolled over Atlanta with a one legged Carroll, and an injured Korver. I also think Atlanta were not as good as their record indicated, you need stars in the playoffs. I think what they did was great, it was a great run...but I would literally put all 8 teams that make the West as favorites over Cleveland. The Cavs may be favorites to get back to the Finals, but I don't think they'll win it all.

Bringing Smith, Shump, Delly back isn't going to solve the fact that their bench still sucks. And when I was trying to outline their cap situation, I couldn't think of anyone who isn't on the tail end of their career that would go there for $2.5 million. They're at $88 million, without bringing back Smith/Shump/Delly. Their payroll will blow past $100 mil easily, and for what? They have 4 guys who are legitimate starters, everyone else is a backup.

There's a thread on the main board asking if this was Clevelands best shot at a ring. I think this season and next are, after that you're factoring in things that are out of Lebron's control a) age, he's going to decline, b) a lot of people seem to think the Cavs are in the midst of a dynasty but that is entirely contingent on whether Love stays or goes. If he's out, then I don't see how a 33 year old Lebron can carry this team to a ring, especially when c) everyone will load up in 2016.

So many things can happen in two years but if you want to guess from here, just track the biggest single impact players like LeBeon, KD, A Davis.

GS had a great team but LeBron had no one to help him score. Even having Kyrie without Love would have helped a ton. Having both would have changed a lot and they may well have beat GS.

LeBron gets another good shot at it next year. After that, we have to see where KD is and what A Davis is doing.

LeBron just needs one title in CLE to complete that story and next year is the year to do it.

[hands11]

If Love/Irving are back to form next year Cleveland will coast to the Finals.

I think they'll figure out a way to add Wade amusingly. If he would take a 6th man role finally he'd be very useful. For some reason I've convinced myself he's leaving Miami to rejoin James.

Look at Irving's injury history -- back to the 11 games he played at Duke -- and tell me what "back to form" means. This was his healthiest season and he could hardly walk before the knee fracture. The guys may just have bad genes when it comes to staying healthy.

That's a huge problem for them. He is a very talented scorer and I think he can improve his defense. He is still young. But the injuries.

They need to really work on his body this off season. And if he needs to play different, they need to work on that as well. Wall dialed back his driving so he could stay healthy as his body adjusted to the NBA seasons. Before the hand, he hadn't missed a game in a long time after starter his first few year always injured.

Kyrie is still young. They need to get him right now before its to late. Look at Curry's early ankle problems. It can be done but it needs done now. Training. Stretching. How he moves. Rest. Diet.

[fishercob]

So David Griffin said the Cavs plan to bring back Tristan. Now word is they are shopping Haywood's un-guaranteed 10M salary to bring in more talent, perhaps another "facilitator." That's more salalry -- certainly north of $5M if they are going to get a decent player, and maybe more.

If they retain Love, won't they have a massive tax bill next year? Then what does they cap picture look like after the cap spikes in the subsequent two years -- particularly given the raise Mosgov will be due?

[Ruzious]

So David Griffin said the Cavs plan to bring back Tristan. Now word is they are shopping Haywood's un-guaranteed 10M salary to bring in more talent, perhaps another "facilitator." That's more salalry -- certainly north of $5M if they are going to get a decent player, and maybe more.

If they retain Love, won't they have a massive tax bill next year? Then what does they cap picture look like after the cap spikes in the subsequent two years -- particularly given the raise Mosgov will be due?

I'd think they'd just decline the option on Haywood and save 10 mil - so they at least reduce the lux tax bill theyr'e going to get. Shamsports says they have until August 1st to do that - so they can take their time in making the decision. Yes, they could get something nice for that contract, but whatever they'd get would really hurt the owners' cash-flow. What I'd do is decline the option and try to find someone to take Sideshow V's expiring (9.6 mil) contract for nothing.

[LyricalRico]

So David Griffin said the Cavs plan to bring back Tristan. Now word is they are shopping Haywood's un-guaranteed 10M salary to bring in more talent, perhaps another "facilitator." That's more salalry -- certainly north of $5M if they are going to get a decent player, and maybe more.

If they retain Love, won't they have a massive tax bill next year? Then what does they cap picture look like after the cap spikes in the subsequent two years -- particularly given the raise Mosgov will be due?

I'd think they'd just decline the option on Haywood and save 10 mil - so they at least reduce the lux tax bill theyr'e going to get. Shamsports says they have until August 1st to do that - so they can take their time in making the decision. Yes, they could get something nice for that contract, but whatever they'd get would really hurt the owners' cash-flow. What I'd do is decline the option and try to find someone to take Sideshow V's expiring (9.6 mil) contract for nothing.

Actually, they gave Sideshow an extension last year so he's on the books until summer 2018. The second year is almost fully guaranteed, and the last year is $4M guaranteed. Not saying they couldn't still get something for him (maybe a comparable wing on a similar deal), but they won't be able to dump him.

Plus they will have to re-sign Shumpert, and JR Smith could opt-out and demand a longterm deal. Assuming they bring back everyone that opts out, they will be close to Brooklyn's record luxtax bill next year.

[closg00]

I suspect that the Cavs will try to trade Sideshow.


#FireErnie ~ Because he believed Stephen Curry couldn't help us and Jan Vesely could.

[FAH1223]

I suspect that the Cavs will try to trade Sideshow.

Not with LeBron there. He's the reason Sideshow got the extension in the first place.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think Okc are the favs. If healthy they are loaded. Westbrook, Kd, and Serge are a perfect trio. Lantern gives them a bear inside, and they have Adams as a rebounder defender. They need another wing/combo guard, but I think they are better than Cle.

OKC winning a championship would make Billy Donovan the second neophyte head coach in a row to take a team to a title.

I don't think that it will happen.

[nate33]

If Sacramento trades Cousins for "win-now talent", they could put together a pretty interesting team in a hurry.

Let's assume they trade Cousins + McLemore to us for Beal + Gortat + #19. They can then trade their pick and filler (Landry and Thompson) for Ty Lawson. That leaves them with:

PG Lawson/Collison
SG Beal/Stauskas
SF Gay
PF D.Williams
C Gortat

They'd also have the #19 pick and about $14M in cap room. Hopefully, they land a good PF with the cap room and another wing with the pick.

[fishercob]

If Sacramento trades Cousins for "win-now talent", they could put together a pretty interesting team in a hurry.

Let's assume they trade Cousins + McLemore to us for Beal + Gortat + #19. They can then trade their pick and filler (Landry and Thompson) for Ty Lawson. That leaves them with:

PG Lawson/Collison
SG Beal/Stauskas
SF Gay
PF D.Williams
C Gortat

They'd also have the #19 pick and about $14M in cap room. Hopefully, they land a good PF with the cap room and another wing with the pick.

I had a very similar thought and think they could include our pick to Denver to get one of Gallo or Chandler.

[Rafael122]

Why anyone would want to play for Boston is beyond me. The entire roster seems to be untouchable, Ainge offering Smaht and picks for Noel and the 3rd pick.

[nate33]

Why anyone would want to play for Boston is beyond me. The entire roster seems to be untouchable, Ainge offering Smaht and picks for Noel and the 3rd pick.

Say what you will about Ainge, but the guy always comes out on top in trades. His trades may not always result in great fits, but he usually wins in talent. Much like Morey, he's all about acquiring assets.

I think Cauley-Stein would be the ideal fit for Boston in this draft. If he goes before the Boston pick, I'd look for them to try and move up.

[fishercob]

Why anyone would want to play for Boston is beyond me. The entire roster seems to be untouchable, Ainge offering Smaht and picks for Noel and the 3rd pick.

Say what you will about Ainge, but the guy always comes out on top in trades. His trades may not always result in great fits, but he usually wins in talent. Much like Morey, he's all about acquiring assets.

I think Cauley-Stein would be the ideal fit for Boston in this draft. If he goes before the Boston pick, I'd look for them to try and move up.

This strikes me as total draft week smoke.

[nate33]

Why anyone would want to play for Boston is beyond me. The entire roster seems to be untouchable, Ainge offering Smaht and picks for Noel and the 3rd pick.

Say what you will about Ainge, but the guy always comes out on top in trades. His trades may not always result in great fits, but he usually wins in talent. Much like Morey, he's all about acquiring assets.

I think Cauley-Stein would be the ideal fit for Boston in this draft. If he goes before the Boston pick, I'd look for them to try and move up.

This strikes me as total draft week smoke.

Yeah, you might be right. I think Cauley-Stein is a great fit because they are so desperate for athletic rim protection, but on the other hand, Cauley-Stein seems like a low ceiling pick. His max upside is maybe Tyson Chandler but probably quite a bit lower. And Chandler only made 1 all star game.

I don't buy all the talk that someone will take WCS at 5th, but if the Celtics can move up from 16th to maybe 11th or so and get him, I could see Ainge doing it.

[LyricalRico]

Griffin has repeatedly said the Cavs plan to keep Love, but plugged-in executives around the league continue to predict the Cavs will sign-and-trade Love after advancing so far without him. That would unclutter the power forward spot, and if the Cavs can recoup rotation players and picks, they’d have to at least consider it. Love needs the ball to live up to a max contract, and even Griffin has told me that watching LeBron carry a misfit cast within two wins of the title taught him a lot about the kind of supporting cast he wants around his centerpiece.

“LeBron needs to have the ball so much for you to be as good as you can be, and you need to be very selective about the guys who get to have it when he doesn’t,” Griffin said. “You cannot have too much ball dominance around him.”

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nba-finalists-how-to-make-a-sequel/

The overall point of the Cleveland section of the article is the author making the case for keeping Love over Thompson, but this bit shows that they may go with Thompson (which is what I expect them to do). Could be two guys (Love and Cousins) available for the Wiz to go after this summer.

[nate33]

My guess is that we could trade Beal + Nene for Love right now if we picked up the phone. I'm not sure that I want to. I'm starting to have my doubts that Love is the type of player that can make a good team great.

[gambitx777]

The kings owner is going to set that team back years! let the guys who know basket ball build a team!. I don't think we have the assets to get DC when LA is offering the number 2 pick. I would offer Beal, Gortat, and a 2016 and 2018 first. But I don't think that get's it done. I would keep 19 because you need to fill holes at that point. We would still be limited in free agency and we would still have a lot of work to do.

[LyricalRico]

My guess is that we could trade Beal + Nene for Love right now if we picked up the phone. I'm not sure that I want to. I'm starting to have my doubts that Love is the type of player that can make a good team great.

You're right that Love isn't without his question marks. But neither is Beal IMO. Is he a guy that can make a good team great? Or is he just a "good but not great" guy that gets hurt every year?

We also have to consider the contracts. Love at the current max this summer might not end up being a ton more than Beal on a near-max deal signed in 2016. Especially if we stick to the current plan and up striking out on KD, giving Beal's camp all of the leverage in negotiations. (Of course, contracts would be a reason to prefer Cousins since he's already locked up for the next 3 years with no options).

If Love's shoulder checks out and Cleveland will take Nene+Beal (and Sacto isn't bluffing about keeping Cousins), that's tough to turn down IMO. We'd just have to make sure we sign Love to the right deal. Maybe a 3 year max deal with options in 2016 and 2017 (if that's possible), and then we hope he doesn't opt out until 2017 when he take advantage of the second cap bump?

[tontoz]

My guess is that we could trade Beal + Nene for Love right now if we picked up the phone. I'm not sure that I want to. I'm starting to have my doubts that Love is the type of player that can make a good team great.

I would do that deal quickly. Love >> Beal and having a true stretch 4 playing with Wall would make him so much more effective. Love is also a legit go to scorer.