Wizards 2019 Draft thread. (Tank for Zion, or OTHER NAME HERE)

[payitforward]

Those were both "pin the tail on the donkey" picks I'm sure.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Depressing that Boston has 4 first round picks.

If only we could pull out a proper tank... send Boston our, say #6, for two-three of their firsts.

The draft, to me, looks like top notch players in the top 3-4, a lull after that, than a handful of really promising players 13-30.

[Ruzious]

Depressing that Boston has 4 first round picks.

If only we could pull out a proper tank... send Boston our, say #6, for two-three of their firsts.

The draft, to me, looks like top notch players in the top 3-4, a lull after that, than a handful of really promising players 13-30.

Morant and Barrett had big games over the weekend - solidifying their holds on being top 3 picks. Williamson is way ahead of them, but I see why Dat is so high on Morant. Yeah, who the 4th pick is - I have no idea at this point. It might be Jarrett Culver, Nickeil Alexander-Walker or KZ Okpala.

[Ruzious]

Having to start thinking about picking outside of the lottery - with the Wiz winning 7 of their last 10 - I'd target Sekou Doumbouya - based on potential. He's a very raw 19 year old playing in France, but he's got the classic NBA frame, and even his offense doesn't come around, he's got tremendous defensive ability.

[pcbothwel]

Having to start thinking about picking outside of the lottery - with the Wiz winning 7 of their last 10 - I'd target Sekou Doumbouya - based on potential. He's a very raw 19 year old playing in France, but he's got the classic NBA frame, and even his offense doesn't come around, he's got tremendous defensive ability.

Yeah.... 4-10 look very Meh to me. We can get a solid player in the mid teens. Doumbouya, Bol, Little, Hunter, Garland, Reddish, etc. Someone will be there.

[Dat2U]

Having to start thinking about picking outside of the lottery - with the Wiz winning 7 of their last 10 - I'd target Sekou Doumbouya - based on potential. He's a very raw 19 year old playing in France, but he's got the classic NBA frame, and even his offense doesn't come around, he's got tremendous defensive ability.

Yeah.... 4-10 look very Meh to me. We can get a solid player in the mid teens. Doumbouya, Bol, Little, Hunter, Garland, Reddish, etc. Someone will be there.

4-10 looks like the Bennett/Oladipo/Porter draft. This is maybe one of the drafts were picking #15 gives you as much chance as picking #5.

The top 3 picks have clearly separated themselves.

[mhd]

Having to start thinking about picking outside of the lottery - with the Wiz winning 7 of their last 10 - I'd target Sekou Doumbouya - based on potential. He's a very raw 19 year old playing in France, but he's got the classic NBA frame, and even his offense doesn't come around, he's got tremendous defensive ability.

Yeah.... 4-10 look very Meh to me. We can get a solid player in the mid teens. Doumbouya, Bol, Little, Hunter, Garland, Reddish, etc. Someone will be there.

4-10 looks like the Bennett/Oladipo/Porter draft. This is maybe one of the drafts were picking #15 gives you as much chance as picking #5.

The top 3 picks have clearly separated themselves.

Just have to hope there is a Giannis available to be picked at 15. Doubt EG has the acumen to make a pick like that though.

[doclinkin]

Having to start thinking about picking outside of the lottery - with the Wiz winning 7 of their last 10 - I'd target Sekou Doumbouya - based on potential. He's a very raw 19 year old playing in France, but he's got the classic NBA frame, and even his offense doesn't come around, he's got tremendous defensive ability.

Yeah.... 4-10 look very Meh to me. We can get a solid player in the mid teens. Doumbouya, Bol, Little, Hunter, Garland, Reddish, etc. Someone will be there.

4-10 looks like the Bennett/Oladipo/Porter draft. This is maybe one of the drafts were picking #15 gives you as much chance as picking #5.

The top 3 picks have clearly separated themselves.

The tournament hasn't happened yet.
There is always a player or two who stand out in March
and make it clear they have the texticle fortitude (seeing who grabs at this. PIF?)
to make it at the next level. CONGRATULATIONS. you have broken the code and discovered the secret East Coast Vigilante forum. I am your host in this hidden pocket. Doctor Nocturnal. Feel free to say hey and but cut this secret code out when you quote me or it will show up in the quote
enjoy!

[Ruzious]

Yeah.... 4-10 look very Meh to me. We can get a solid player in the mid teens. Doumbouya, Bol, Little, Hunter, Garland, Reddish, etc. Someone will be there.

4-10 looks like the Bennett/Oladipo/Porter draft. This is maybe one of the drafts were picking #15 gives you as much chance as picking #5.

The top 3 picks have clearly separated themselves.

The tournament hasn't happened yet.
There is always a player or two who stand out in March
and make it clear they have the texticle fortitude
to make it at the next level.

Prehaps Shamorie Ponds has the textile factory to make that Kemba Walker-like transmogrification, Doc Noc. Right now, he's getting overlooked despite putting up gaudy numbers.

[Dat2U]

4-10 looks like the Bennett/Oladipo/Porter draft. This is maybe one of the drafts were picking #15 gives you as much chance as picking #5.

The top 3 picks have clearly separated themselves.

The tournament hasn't happened yet.
There is always a player or two who stand out in March
and make it clear they have the texticle fortitude
to make it at the next level.

Prehaps Shamorie Ponds has the textile factory to make that Kemba Walker-like transmogrification, Doc Noc. Right now, he's getting overlooked despite putting up gaudy numbers.

Yep, he does. He's certainly someone I'd consider at #15.

[payitforward]

Do most people perhaps overestimate the difference between the #5 pick & the #15 pick? Do most people think there's a big drop in how good the player turns out to be?

Here are the #5 picks from 2007-2016:

Jeff Green
Kevin Love
Ricky Rubio
DeMarcus Cousins
Jonas Valanciunas
Thomas Robinson
Alex Len
Dante Exum
Mario Hezonja
Kris Dunn

& here are the #15 picks from those same drafts:

Rodney Stuckey
Robin Lopez
Austin Daye
Larry Sanders
Kawhi Leonard,
Moe Harkless
Giannis Antetekounmpo
Adrejian Payne
Kelly Oubre
Juan Hernangomez

Interesting, huh? Two busts on the first list (Robinson & Hezonja). 3 on the second list (Daye, Sanders & Payne). The remaining 7 on the 2d list includes two of the top seven players in the game (Giannis & Leonard). The two best players left on the list of # five picks (Cousins & Love) are by no means their equals.

Overall, the remaining six on the list of #5 picks (Green, Rubio, Valanciunas, Len, Exum & Dunn) have certainly not been better than the remaining five on the list of #15 picks (Stuckey, Lopez, Harkless, Oubre, & Hernangomez).

Now, how about this -- suppose you own the #15 pick in any of those drafts, & another GM offers you the #30 & #31 pick for your #15: do you take that offer? How many of you would grab that deal without even having to think much? How many of you would turn it down as an attempt to get something over on you?

If you had the #30 & 31 pick in each of those same drafts, could you do better than you'd have done w/ the #15? Lets see....

2007: Instead of Stuckey, you'd be able to pick Carl Landry & Marc Gasol.
2008: Instead of Lopez, you'd be able to take DeAndre Jordan & either Mario Chalmers or Goran Dragic.
2009: Instead of Austin Daye, you'd be able to acquire Danny Green & Dante Cunningham.
2010: Instead of Sanders, you'd have the chance to take Hassan Whiteside & Lance Stephenson.
2011: Instead of Kawhi Leonard, you'd be taking Jimmy Butler & one of Jon Leuer, E'Twaun Moore or Isaiah Thomas.
2012: Instead of Moe Harkless, you'd nab Draymond Green & one of Sato, Will Barton or Kyle O'Quinn.
2013: Instead of Giannis, you'd pick up Allen Crabbe & James Ennis.
2014: Instead of Adrejian Payne, you'd be able to choose 2 guys from a list including Kyle Anderson, Joe Harris, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jerami Grant, Glenn Robinson III, & Nikola Jokic.
2015: Instead of Oubre, you would take Kevon Looney along with one of Montrezl Harrell, Richaun Holmes, Josh Richardson, Pat Connaughton, Norman Powell & Cedi Osman.
2016: Instead of Juan Hernangomez, you might take Damian Jones & Malcolm Brogdon.

Now... by definition the 15th best player in the draft is better than the 30th best player in the draft. The problem is that GMs are unable to tell which is which. Pure & simple. Hence having #30 & 31 is far better than having #15.

Even 2013, when that trade would have cost you Giannis, still proves my point: that year, the best player in the draft -- maybe the best player in the game! -- didn't go #1. Or #5. That year, the best player in the draft by a mile dropped to #15. Because GMs can't do an effective job of sequencing players (at least not past #3).

So, if we do have the #6 pick (we still may), we'd be wise to trade it down for 2 picks lower in R1. That trade would be a big help.

[Ruzious]

Steve Nash was another 15th pick in the draft - after having a monster game against MD in the NCAA tournament. I can't disagree with Pif's conclusion.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Now... by definition the 15th best player in the draft is better than the 30th best player in the draft. The problem is that GMs are unable to tell which is which. Pure & simple. Hence having #30 & 31 is far better than having #15.

I don't think your first few sentences prove that last sentence at all. Teams can't figure out which is which at 15 and they definitely can't do it at 30/31, either. The list of quality players from which to pick gets smaller, on average, with each passing pick while the list of potential picks including all the players who won't make it remains decidedly long no matter what. It gets harder and harder to find a talented player with each passing pick. And just because a person can throw out 6 or 7 names and one or two of those names actually makes it in the league doesn't mean they'd be able to pick one of those players if left to a single pick, only. They would hit sometimes and miss others just like every team in the league, though obviously some are better than others. It really depends on the draft and how a team hits.

If a team had the 15th pick in 2014 and took Jokic, suddenly even the chance of taking a good player at 30/31 isn't so interesting. And including guys who dropped out of the league and then were signed by other teams in free agency afterwards isn't necessarily proof that they would have made better draft picks, either. I'd suggest you don't want to be the team that drafts those players but instead that you want to be the team that signs those players after they put in a bit more time and work and are in a position to thrive in the NBA. Honestly, I feel that's a bit of an underrated aspect that goes missing with Ernie. He doesn't actually find free agents to develop who will grow with the team and instead targets vets on the downside of their careers. The one time he broke his pattern he wound up signing Andrew Nicholson, so maybe it's for the best that he doesn't, but that's a huge factor in what the Wizards are missing out on.

[Dat2U]

Do most people perhaps overestimate the difference between the #5 pick & the #15 pick? Do most people think there's a big drop in how good the player turns out to be?

Here are the #5 picks from 2007-2016:

Jeff Green
Kevin Love
Ricky Rubio
DeMarcus Cousins
Jonas Valanciunas
Thomas Robinson
Alex Len
Dante Exum
Mario Hezonja
Kris Dunn

& here are the #15 picks from those same drafts:

Rodney Stuckey
Robin Lopez
Austin Daye
Larry Sanders
Kawhi Leonard,
Moe Harkless
Giannis Antetekounmpo
Adrejian Payne
Kelly Oubre
Juan Hernangomez

Interesting, huh? Two busts on the first list (Robinson & Hezonja). 3 on the second list (Daye, Sanders & Payne). The remaining 7 on the 2d list includes two of the top seven players in the game (Giannis & Leonard). The two best players left on the list of # five picks (Cousins & Love) are by no means their equals.

Overall, the remaining six on the list of #5 picks (Green, Rubio, Valanciunas, Len, Exum & Dunn) have certainly not been better than the remaining five on the list of #15 picks (Stuckey, Lopez, Harkless, Oubre, & Hernangomez).

Now, how about this -- suppose you own the #15 pick in any of those drafts, & another GM offers you the #30 & #31 pick for your #15: do you take that offer? How many of you would grab that deal without even having to think much? How many of you would turn it down as an attempt to get something over on you?

If you had the #30 & 31 pick in each of those same drafts, could you do better than you'd have done w/ the #15? Lets see....

2007: Instead of Stuckey, you'd be able to pick Carl Landry & Marc Gasol.
2008: Instead of Lopez, you'd be able to take DeAndre Jordan & either Mario Chalmers or Goran Dragic.
2009: Instead of Austin Daye, you'd be able to acquire Danny Green & Dante Cunningham.
2010: Instead of Sanders, you'd have the chance to take Hassan Whiteside & Lance Stephenson.
2011: Instead of Kawhi Leonard, you'd be taking Jimmy Butler & one of Jon Leuer, E'Twaun Moore or Isaiah Thomas.
2012: Instead of Moe Harkless, you'd nab Draymond Green & one of Sato, Will Barton or Kyle O'Quinn.
2013: Instead of Giannis, you'd pick up Allen Crabbe & James Ennis.
2014: Instead of Adrejian Payne, you'd be able to choose 2 guys from a list including Kyle Anderson, Joe Harris, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jerami Grant, Glenn Robinson III, & Nikola Jokic.
2015: Instead of Oubre, you would take Kevon Looney along with one of Montrezl Harrell, Richaun Holmes, Josh Richardson, Pat Connaughton, Norman Powell & Cedi Osman.
2016: Instead of Juan Hernangomez, you might take Damian Jones & Malcolm Brogdon.

Now... by definition the 15th best player in the draft is better than the 30th best player in the draft. The problem is that GMs are unable to tell which is which. Pure & simple. Hence having #30 & 31 is far better than having #15.

Even 2013, when that trade would have cost you Giannis, still proves my point: that year, the best player in the draft -- maybe the best player in the game! -- didn't go #1. Or #5. That year, the best player in the draft by a mile dropped to #15. Because GMs can't do an effective job of sequencing players (at least not past #3).

So, if we do have the #6 pick (we still may), we'd be wise to trade it down for 2 picks lower in R1. That trade would be a big help.

Do most people perhaps overestimate the difference between the #5 pick & the #15 pick? Do most people think there's a big drop in how good the player turns out to be?

Here are the #5 picks from 2007-2016:

Jeff Green
Kevin Love
Ricky Rubio
DeMarcus Cousins
Jonas Valanciunas
Thomas Robinson
Alex Len
Dante Exum
Mario Hezonja
Kris Dunn

& here are the #15 picks from those same drafts:

Rodney Stuckey
Robin Lopez
Austin Daye
Larry Sanders
Kawhi Leonard,
Moe Harkless
Giannis Antetekounmpo
Adrejian Payne
Kelly Oubre
Juan Hernangomez

Interesting, huh? Two busts on the first list (Robinson & Hezonja). 3 on the second list (Daye, Sanders & Payne). The remaining 7 on the 2d list includes two of the top seven players in the game (Giannis & Leonard). The two best players left on the list of # five picks (Cousins & Love) are by no means their equals.

Overall, the remaining six on the list of #5 picks (Green, Rubio, Valanciunas, Len, Exum & Dunn) have certainly not been better than the remaining five on the list of #15 picks (Stuckey, Lopez, Harkless, Oubre, & Hernangomez).

Now, how about this -- suppose you own the #15 pick in any of those drafts, & another GM offers you the #30 & #31 pick for your #15: do you take that offer? How many of you would grab that deal without even having to think much? How many of you would turn it down as an attempt to get something over on you?

If you had the #30 & 31 pick in each of those same drafts, could you do better than you'd have done w/ the #15? Lets see....

2007: Instead of Stuckey, you'd be able to pick Carl Landry & Marc Gasol.
2008: Instead of Lopez, you'd be able to take DeAndre Jordan & either Mario Chalmers or Goran Dragic.
2009: Instead of Austin Daye, you'd be able to acquire Danny Green & Dante Cunningham.
2010: Instead of Sanders, you'd have the chance to take Hassan Whiteside & Lance Stephenson.
2011: Instead of Kawhi Leonard, you'd be taking Jimmy Butler & one of Jon Leuer, E'Twaun Moore or Isaiah Thomas.
2012: Instead of Moe Harkless, you'd nab Draymond Green & one of Sato, Will Barton or Kyle O'Quinn.
2013: Instead of Giannis, you'd pick up Allen Crabbe & James Ennis.
2014: Instead of Adrejian Payne, you'd be able to choose 2 guys from a list including Kyle Anderson, Joe Harris, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jerami Grant, Glenn Robinson III, & Nikola Jokic.
2015: Instead of Oubre, you would take Kevon Looney along with one of Montrezl Harrell, Richaun Holmes, Josh Richardson, Pat Connaughton, Norman Powell & Cedi Osman.
2016: Instead of Juan Hernangomez, you might take Damian Jones & Malcolm Brogdon.

Now... by definition the 15th best player in the draft is better than the 30th best player in the draft. The problem is that GMs are unable to tell which is which. Pure & simple. Hence having #30 & 31 is far better than having #15.

Even 2013, when that trade would have cost you Giannis, still proves my point: that year, the best player in the draft -- maybe the best player in the game! -- didn't go #1. Or #5. That year, the best player in the draft by a mile dropped to #15. Because GMs can't do an effective job of sequencing players (at least not past #3).

So, if we do have the #6 pick (we still may), we'd be wise to trade it down for 2 picks lower in R1. That trade would be a big help.

I don't know what's worse, the over reliance on WP48 or trading a high lottery picks for a volume of later picks.

I could see if this was football where depth is absolutely crucial. Basketball is literally the worst sport to choose quantity over quality.

I couldn't possibly disagree anymore with this analysis. Why does only the 5th or 15th or 30th and
31st picks matter?

Picking 5th gives you the opportunity to get the absolute best player on the board. It's up to the scouting department to knock that pick out of the park.

Sure you have a guy like Giannis or Nash that goes 15th but what about 6-14??? In your superficial analysis you make no mention of the guys available b/w those picks.

Just off the top of my head, you miss out on the likes of Curry, Lillard, Walker, Thompson, Fox, George, Mitchell, Hayward, Booker, Adams, DeRozan, Cousins, Drummond & Love.

[Ruzious]

Each draft should be considered separately, but this draft... after the top 2 or 3... Ernie gotta flip a coin. Maybe use a ouiji board. Ernie the necromancer?

[payitforward]

Do most people perhaps overestimate the difference between the #5 pick & the #15 pick? Do most people think there's a big drop in how good the player turns out to be? ......

Now... by definition the 15th best player in the draft is better than the 30th best player in the draft. The problem is that GMs are unable to tell which is which. Pure & simple. Hence having #30 & 31 is far better than having #15.

Even 2013, when that trade would have cost you Giannis, still proves my point: that year, the best player in the draft -- maybe the best player in the game! -- didn't go #1. Or #5. That year, the best player in the draft by a mile dropped to #15. Because GMs can't do an effective job of sequencing players (at least not past #3).

So, if we do have the #6 pick (we still may), we'd be wise to trade it down for 2 picks lower in R1. ...

I don't know what's worse, the over reliance on WP48 or trading a high lottery picks for a volume of later picks.

I don't rely on WP48 at all, though it's fair to say that I rely heavily on the numbers players put up in the standard box score categories.

In any case, I don't suppose you meant the WP48 remark to pertain to this post.

...I couldn't possibly disagree anymore with this analysis. ...Picking 5th gives you the opportunity to get the absolute best player on the board. It's up to the scouting department to knock that pick out of the park.

Absolutely! & if any FO could be relied upon to do just that & do it consistently, I'd be wrong in just the sense you point out. That's why I wrote:

...by definition the 15th best player in the draft is better than the 30th best player in the draft. The problem is that GMs are unable to tell which is which. Pure & simple.

The data I provided had the sole purpose of illustrating that fact. Really, Dat -- there's no way to deny it. After pick 3, there's just no meaningful correlation between where a guy was picked & how good a player he turns out to be.

Why does only the 5th or 15th or 30th and
31st picks matter?... what about 6-14??? ... you make no mention of the guys available b/w those picks.

It's not that the 5th, 15th or 30th pick matter. It's that having more picks makes it more likely that you do well. That's why

..having #30 & 31 is far better than having #15.

Compare it to a multiple choice exam. If the teacher says "I tell you what; on this exam, you can mark 2 answers on each question. If either of them is the correct choice, I'll give you credit for answering the question."

If I know the answer to a question, this doesn't help me on that question. But if I don't know the answer it sure does.

If GMs could consistently give the right answer to the question who, as you call it, is "the absolutely best player on the board," great -- get yourself the single highest pick you can.

But, Front Offices cannot do this! It's not something to disagree with; it's just a fact. If they could, then how would Kawhi Leonard & Jimmy Butler go at #15 & #30 in 2011?

How would Paul George go 4 picks after Ekbe Udoh, 6 picks after Wesley Johnson, & 8 picks after Evan Turner?

How would MK-G, Dion Waiters, Thomas Robinson, & Terrence Ross go before Andre Drummond? Hell, how would Austin Rivers go twenty five picks before Draymond Green??

How would Jonny Flynn go before Steph Curry?

How would Hasheem Thabeet go before James Harden. & before Steph Curry.

Or, to take it at a lower talent level, how would Austin Daye go before Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson, Jeff Teague, Darren Collison & Omri Casspi? How would Byron Mullens go before Taj Gibson? How would Eric Maynor go before DeMarre Carroll? How would Maynor go twenty picks before Jonas Jerebko? How would he go fully twenty six picks before Danny Green. That's all in a single draft!

Just off the top of my head, you miss out on the likes of Curry, Lillard, Walker, Thompson, Fox, George, Mitchell, Hayward, Booker, Adams, DeRozan, Cousins, Drummond & Love.

No. & if that's what you think, then I haven't explained myself clearly enough. If "Adams" means Steven Adams, then lets recall that Anthony Bennett, Cody Zeller, Alex Len, Nerlens Noel, Ben McLemore, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Trey Burke & Michael Carter-Williams all went before Adams.

Hell, if I'd have been able to trade the #1 pick for the #15 & 27, I'd have been able to get Giannis Antetekounmpo & Rudy Gobert. Above all, I'd have had a better chance to get one of them than I would have had with a single pick.

Why? Because I didn't know how good they were going to be, & neither did you. So I couldn't be counted on to pick them #1 & 2 in the draft which is where they should have gone. & neither could you.

[Kanyewest]

Now... by definition the 15th best player in the draft is better than the 30th best player in the draft. The problem is that GMs are unable to tell which is which. Pure & simple. Hence having #30 & 31 is far better than having #15.

I don't think your first few sentences prove that last sentence at all. Teams can't figure out which is which at 15 and they definitely can't do it at 30/31, either. The list of quality players from which to pick gets smaller, on average, with each passing pick while the list of potential picks including all the players who won't make it remains decidedly long no matter what. It gets harder and harder to find a talented player with each passing pick. And just because a person can throw out 6 or 7 names and one or two of those names actually makes it in the league doesn't mean they'd be able to pick one of those players if left to a single pick, only. They would hit sometimes and miss others just like every team in the league, though obviously some are better than others. It really depends on the draft and how a team hits.

If a team had the 15th pick in 2014 and took Jokic, suddenly even the chance of taking a good player at 30/31 isn't so interesting. And including guys who dropped out of the league and then were signed by other teams in free agency afterwards isn't necessarily proof that they would have made better draft picks, either. I'd suggest you don't want to be the team that drafts those players but instead that you want to be the team that signs those players after they put in a bit more time and work and are in a position to thrive in the NBA. Honestly, I feel that's a bit of an underrated aspect that goes missing with Ernie. He doesn't actually find free agents to develop who will grow with the team and instead targets vets on the downside of their careers. The one time he broke his pattern he wound up signing Andrew Nicholson, so maybe it's for the best that he doesn't, but that's a huge factor in what the Wizards are missing out on.

Yup, this is overestimating the value of a 2nd rounder given that it is very hard to identify the elite players that end up in the second round when the pick happens.

You don't get the benefit of hindsight when trading for second rounders. You actually have to look at who was picked at 30/31 to determine the true value of a pick.

[payitforward]

Now... by definition the 15th best player in the draft is better than the 30th best player in the draft. The problem is that GMs are unable to tell which is which. Pure & simple. Hence having #30 & 31 is far better than having #15.

I don't think your first few sentences prove that last sentence at all. Teams can't figure out which is which at 15 and they definitely can't do it at 30/31, either. ....

Yup, this is overestimating the value of a 2nd rounder given that it is very hard to identify the elite players that end up in the second round when the pick happens.

You don't get the benefit of hindsight when trading for second rounders. You actually have to look at who was picked at 30/31 to determine the true value of a pick.

Either I'm being misunderstood for no great reason, or else I'm being unclear. I'm not overvaluing anything, & I'm saying nothing outlandish. Maybe this will help:

Lets suppose for a moment that, once past the first 3 picks, the draft was completely random -- a complete & total crapshoot. No matter where you picked you had no idea whatever whether any guy you took would be better than any other guy you took.

In that case, it wouldn't matter, for example, whether you had the #15 pick or the #20 pick. It would be random which player would be better. &, given the premise, it also wouldn't matter whether it was the #15 or the #30 either.

With me so far? IF the premise, then the conclusion is valid?

Obviously, in that case, you'd be better off with 2 picks than with one pick, right? It's random, it's chance. It's like having 2 lottery tickets instead of 1. You have twice the chance to get something good -- in this case you have twice the chance to get a good player, because you have two shots at getting one.

Clear so far? Given the premise that it's random, there's no way to know who's going to be a player & who's not going to be one, 2 picks are better than one.

Please note; it's really not possible to disagree with the above, ok? You can dispute the premise, of course, but that's all.

So how about that premise? Nah, it's obviously not completely random -- but, it's pretty close as it turns out. & by "as it turns out" I mean that it's been studied objectively. Past the 3d pick, there is no statistically meaningful correlation between the position a player is picked & his performance in the league.

Hence, sorry -- it's obviously better to have the #30 & #31 picks than the #15. For the obvious reason that with 2 shots you are more likely to get a player than with one shot. Less likely to get a bust, more likely to get value out of the draft.

[payitforward]

(Before this gets out of hand, I should probably 'fess up & say that it's not quite as clear cut as I make it sound -- -- but it can still be a hell of a good idea to trade down for multiple picks.)

[dangermouse]

"we need to find a kawhi"

We could have had THE Kawhi if it wasnt for EG. He picked Czech Griffin who isnt even in the league anymore, one of his biggest blunders ever. I wanted Kawhi, im sure 99% of the board did.