2021 Draft Thread - Part II

[Frichuela]

I'm getting strong MKG vibes from that garuba kid. The fact that his numbers got worse and not better in Europe bothers me. I just got a bad vibe about him.

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The shot is not as broken as MKGs was and I think Garuba is a better athlete. That said I have concerns about drafting a non-threat offensively and would pass at 15 or in a trade down scenario.

Why is he a non-threat? He played on a better team in Euroleague than Avdija did - his team made the playoffs Avdija's didn't - and his offensive role grew down the stretch of the season. Just fascinating how narratives form about players. What's happening on this board with Garuba is that posters decide their opinion, and then they look at the player. When you talk about a "non-threat offensively" you are giving the impression that Garuba is Andre Roberson. When in actuality we should just say that we have no clue what Garuba could become offensively because we don't have any reference points for a guy like him. In his interview with Mike Schmit Garuba mentions that he feels comfortable leading the break. I've seen many plays where Garuba has broken down defenders closing him out. I've seen Garuba use his strength and post up smaller players. I've also seen Garuba blow past slow-footed centers.

Let's throw out his defense out of the window and only talk about his offense. There are two dualing narratives that we have to separate. The first is that Garuba is a non-entity offensively who will come in, play hard defensively but give us nothing offensively. What is this based on? My narrative is that Garuba is an athletic freak who at 18/19 was playing in the second best league in the world and had a role that arbitrarily constrained his offense. So now, fans run in watch some tape of Garuba and say he can only do x, y and z because that's all that he showed. Regardless of where he ends up, hopefully the team that drafts him attempts to develop his offense. His combination of foot speed and strength has the potential to make him a legitimate threat offensively not to mention that his shooting shows great promise.

The kid is 19 years old. Fascinating how so many people know without any doubt that he can develop offensively. If you don't thtink the Wizards can afford to let him develop offensively then say that. But then I'd point out that if all we got was playoff Garuba - knocking down open 3's at 36.8% and his ft's - we would be better in the present than if we drafted any other player. Ultimately, I think what hurts Garuba detractors is that the facts simply don't match up with the narrative they are trying to push.
'

Agreed. Are there risks that Garuba's offensive development disappoints? Sure. However, all the tools and IQ is out there. One underrated skill of his is his court vision and passing ability. The fact that Usman keeps improving offensively every year is another positive sign. Very curious to see how he does on Monday (vs. Japan) and Thursday (vs. Argentina) with his national team.

In any case, all this discussion may be moot point as I have a sneaky feeling he will be selected ahead of us...

[Ruzious]

Either way if we can siphon a late pick somehow, I still am I'm stubbornly certain that, if healthy, Neemias Queta will outplay, say, Evan Mobley early in their careers. I personally think in the East, with giants like Giannis and Embiid, any team needs multiple 5's that can play large, fill space, black shots, deter drives to the paint, make smart reads on defensive positioning, rebound, foul hard. And if they can also make the smart pass, they will find minutes even in an era when small ball is a threat. I think Queta sees the floor well and will look far better when he has NBA caliber talent to pass to. His steadily increasing FT % is a signal that this is a player who will put in the work. Yeah I don't like the mechanics of his knockneed stance, seems a risk for ACL tweaks, but he is the longest and tallest player in the draft. It is rare that you get a true big with a high motor who also understands positioning and team spacing. That soccer mindset of understanding what lanes are open when some get cut off, works on both offense and defense. To my read, Queta has it. Here he is at the combine:

Watch on YouTube

Ok, I'm sold. Offensively, he can be used like Miami uses Bam. You can run the offense through him, because he's very unselfish, sees the floor, and can reach over and around anyone who tries to crowd him. He's not as quick as Bam, but he's longer and probably even better as a passer - remember that wasn't part of Bam's game at KY. Defensively, he alters everything - doesn't just hunt blocks. And a big needs good hands. I believe his hands measured the longest in the combine. Most shot-blocking bigs don't get 1 steal per 40 minutes - he got 1.4. His effect goes far beyond how many blocks he gets. He changes and discourages shots. And look at his tankathon page http://www.tankathon.com/players/neemias-queta He's got even more green than Mobley and just a tiny bit of red - yeah, he'll turn it over some when he's doubled. Hey, if he was perfect, we wouldn't have this chance to get him... with a trade down!

I'd love to see how he'll do defending Embiid. He might be one of the few centers who can do it effectively without a double-team - though as a rookie, he'll likely get taken to the cleaners.

[nate33]

Either way if we can siphon a late pick somehow, I still am I'm stubbornly certain that, if healthy, Neemias Queta will outplay, say, Evan Mobley early in their careers. I personally think in the East, with giants like Giannis and Embiid, any team needs multiple 5's that can play large, fill space, black shots, deter drives to the paint, make smart reads on defensive positioning, rebound, foul hard. And if they can also make the smart pass, they will find minutes even in an era when small ball is a threat. I think Queta sees the floor well and will look far better when he has NBA caliber talent to pass to. His steadily increasing FT % is a signal that this is a player who will put in the work. Yeah I don't like the mechanics of his knockneed stance, seems a risk for ACL tweaks, but he is the longest and tallest player in the draft. It is rare that you get a true big with a high motor who also understands positioning and team spacing. That soccer mindset of understanding what lanes are open when some get cut off, works on both offense and defense. To my read, Queta has it. Here he is at the combine:

Watch on YouTube

I'd be thrilled if we added a pick and grabbed Queta. I just don't want to trade down to get him if it means we lose the opportunity to draft the guard or wing that we really need now.

[pcbothwel]

Doc, The guy I worry the most about us taking is Jalen Johnson. I see a guy who does a few things at a proficient level, but nothing particularly well and appears to have attitude issues.
Reggie Perry last year was, in many ways, in the same boat. I get Julian Wright and Josh Jackson vibes as well (Overrated tools, TERRIBLE AST:TOV ratio, Poor FT shooting, and poor IQ/decision making).

The best comp I can find is Chris Webber, but Webber was a bit longer and 30lbs+ bigger which allowed him to be a good defender as a smaller 5.

For me, Its Wagner, Springer, Giddey, and Garuba at 15...
or trade down with NYK/OKC to take 1 of Murphy/Duarte/Butler and 1 of Queta/Petrusev/McBride

[nate33]

Bouknight's biggest issue in college was that he wasn't that great of a 3-point shooter (29.3%). Look at him here:

Watch on YouTube

[Frichuela]

Going back to the draft, I agree with many posters that if a trade down opportunity presents itself we should take it and run...

Possible trades:

Knicks for #19 + #32 (it would make sense for them to trade up given they also own #21).
OKC for #18 + #34 (same as Knicks)
Houston where we add a 2nd rounder (e.g. CHI 23 or MEM 24) and trade #15 + future 2nd for #23 + #24

Also, there are a few mid 2nd rounders that may be up for sale: Pelicans #40 or #43 (also own #35, #53), Toronto #47 (also own #46), Detroit #42 (also own #37, #52).

Targets:

At #18, #19: Garuba, Kispert, Butler, Duarte, Murphy, Springer. IMO: Kispert and Garuba are unlikely to be available here. I would be very tempted to select either of them at #15 and then purchase a mid 2nd rounder.
At #23, #24: Anyone from the group above + McBride, Cooper and (possibly) Mann

There are many (possible) 2nd rounders worth a shot: Mann (if he drops), Wieskamp, Dosunmu, Primo, Hyland, Aldama, Edwards, JR Thor, H. Jones, Queta, Ayayi.

[Frichuela]

On Trey Murphy, who just had a pre-draft work out with us, his stats look so eerily similar to Saddiq Bey...don't they?

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=trey-murphy-iii--saddiq-bey

To be honest, I would be fine selecting the next Saddiq Bey at #15 and even better in a trade down at #18 or #19

[pcbothwel]

Bouknight's biggest issue in college was that he wasn't that great of a 3-point shooter (29.3%). Look at him here:

Watch on YouTube

Im telling you Nate. Bouknight is going to blow up in the NBA... I see him as a Lavine/Lamb type prospect early on. If we didnt have Beal I would jump on Bouknight at 15.

The only thing holding him back is the archetype (And a little injury history). Off ball SG that doesnt profile as a high level defender or distributer are not valued in the NBA these days (Kobe).
Guys like Lavine, Mitchell, Beal, SGA, and Booker are all guys who had this profile, but added some better ball handling and vision to their game as they got older.
If he does, he's Lavine/Mitchell... if he doesnt, hes Lamb/Eric Gordon. Either way, great value outside the lotto.

[prime1time]

The shot is not as broken as MKGs was and I think Garuba is a better athlete. That said I have concerns about drafting a non-threat offensively and would pass at 15 or in a trade down scenario.

Why is he a non-threat? He played on a better team in Euroleague than Avdija did - his team made the playoffs Avdija's didn't - and his offensive role grew down the stretch of the season. Just fascinating how narratives form about players. What's happening on this board with Garuba is that posters decide their opinion, and then they look at the player. When you talk about a "non-threat offensively" you are giving the impression that Garuba is Andre Roberson. When in actuality we should just say that we have no clue what Garuba could become offensively because we don't have any reference points for a guy like him. In his interview with Mike Schmit Garuba mentions that he feels comfortable leading the break. I've seen many plays where Garuba has broken down defenders closing him out. I've seen Garuba use his strength and post up smaller players. I've also seen Garuba blow past slow-footed centers.

Let's throw out his defense out of the window and only talk about his offense. There are two dualing narratives that we have to separate. The first is that Garuba is a non-entity offensively who will come in, play hard defensively but give us nothing offensively. What is this based on? My narrative is that Garuba is an athletic freak who at 18/19 was playing in the second best league in the world and had a role that arbitrarily constrained his offense. So now, fans run in watch some tape of Garuba and say he can only do x, y and z because that's all that he showed. Regardless of where he ends up, hopefully the team that drafts him attempts to develop his offense. His combination of foot speed and strength has the potential to make him a legitimate threat offensively not to mention that his shooting shows great promise.

The kid is 19 years old. Fascinating how so many people know without any doubt that he can develop offensively. If you don't thtink the Wizards can afford to let him develop offensively then say that. But then I'd point out that if all we got was playoff Garuba - knocking down open 3's at 36.8% and his ft's - we would be better in the present than if we drafted any other player. Ultimately, I think what hurts Garuba detractors is that the facts simply don't match up with the narrative they are trying to push.
'

Agreed. Are there risks that Garuba's offensive development disappoints? Sure. However, all the tools and IQ is out there. One underrated skill of his is his court vision and passing ability. The fact that Usman keeps improving offensively every year is another positive sign. Very curious to see how he does on Monday (vs. Japan) and Thursday (vs. Argentina) with his national team.

In any case, all this discussion may be moot point as I have a sneaky feeling he will be selected ahead of us...

I agree, but he's a tough pick for an organization. People will see him and think high energy unskilled big and get very angry. He's also a tough sell for us because our shooting is so bad. A classic 3 and D guy will definitely be there. With that said if he's on the board we need to take him. It will be fun to watch him guard Rui.

[pcbothwel]

On Trey Murphy, who just had a pre-draft work out with us, his stats look so eerily similar to Saddiq Bey...don't they?

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=trey-murphy-iii--saddiq-bey

To be honest, I would be fine selecting the next Saddiq Bey at #15 and even better in a trade down at #18 or #19

You cant just look at their stats and assume they are the same. Bey showed much higher vision/IQ, ball handling, shooting off the dribble/movement shooter.
Murphy is a better pure shooter, but his defense is not quite as good as his tools would suggest, and his shooting/scoring repertoire is limited. I LIKE him, but not in the top 20.

[Frichuela]

On Trey Murphy, who just had a pre-draft work out with us, his stats look so eerily similar to Saddiq Bey...don't they?

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=trey-murphy-iii--saddiq-bey

To be honest, I would be fine selecting the next Saddiq Bey at #15 and even better in a trade down at #18 or #19

You cant just look at their stats and assume they are the same. Bey showed much higher vision/IQ, ball handling, shooting off the dribble/movement shooter.
Murphy is a better pure shooter, but his defense is not quite as good as his tools would suggest, and his shooting/scoring repertoire is limited. I LIKE him, but not in the top 20.

Well. Others disagree. Sam Vecenie of the Athletic has him now 16th in his NBA draft board. See his latest detailed write-up on Trey below:

Strengths
Great size for a wing shooter at 6-foot-9 with a 7-foot wingspan. Still growing into his frame and looks to have room to improve his strength. Bouncy athlete with some quickness. Has the balance of a smaller player and explosiveness that allows him to finish well above the rim. Good quickness. Gets functional use out of his athleticism. Threw down some wild Tomahawk dunks this year, both out in transition and off cuts in the half court. Has a kind of wiry pop that just keeps rising. Only took about two shots per game at the rim but made almost 66 percent of them in the half court.

The critical skill here is shooting. Murphy is one of the best shooters in the class. Made better than 40 percent for his career from 3 on nearly 500 career attempts. Absolutely beautiful mechanics. Same exact release every time with simple upper-body movement. Terrific follow through and pristine balance on the shot. Great shot prep. Always ready to shoot off the catch. Typically goes off the hop but can also go off a 1-2 step. Has deep range, having made 43 percent of his 3s beyond 25 feet. Not the fastest release but gets it off quicker than most. Good sense of drifting into space to create open passing angles for his teammates. His shooting at 6-foot-9 would be enough to make him a legitimate prospect. He’s also a serious 3-and-D prospect, an excellent on-ball defender who can slide and switch multiple positions. Great lateral agility to where he can flip and drop his hips to cut off driving angles after counters from ballhandlers. Great mechanics in his stance. Not necessarily someone who forces a bunch of turnovers but rather uses his length to swallow guys up and cause issues. Unsurprisingly, given his length, he’s excellent at contesting. Tough to get him on his back foot to where he can’t recover on a stepback, but even if a player does, he still can use his length to get a
hand in a player’s face. Power players who can get low (think Jimmy Butler) will be able to go through and displace him a little while he puts on weight, but even then, he’s so long that it’s tough to get a clean look. Hands are disruptive, and arms are constantly high. Good at getting through screens. Gets skinny and goes over. He’s also an impactful team defender. Great on closeouts because of his balanced stance and length while keeping his hands high. Tracks his man well away from the ball. Virginia used him a lot on shooting specialists and he was good at maneuvering around screens away from the ball and making an impact. Very aware positionally and available in help. Not a disruptive turnover player but constantly in the right spots and takes away passes with how much ground his length covers.

Weaknesses
Not a great dribbler in the half court right now. A bit loose with it, and it’s not fluid. Doesn’t turn it over but also doesn’t actually make anything happen. Absolutely does not create pull-up jumpers. Almost all of his offense was created for him and he just finished. About 72 percent of his 2-pointers were assisted and more than 90 percent of his 3s were assisted. Took 127 shots in the half court and only 12 of them were off the bounce. Didn’t really create a ton of impactful looks attacking heavy closeouts from defenders. Horrible on relocation jumpers and does not look comfortable putting the ball on the ground and trying to side step or drive. Not a great passer. Escape passes versus dangerous ones. And when he does see the dangerous ones, they tend to be a bit off target. He doesn’t turn the ball over and is not necessarily actively ending possessions, but he’s pretty limited right now. Needs to better understand how the help is playing him. Will note that he needs to keep getting stronger. As mentioned, it’s pretty possible that guys who can bend and get low will go through him unless he keeps getting stronger, particularly through his lower half. Given how much of a late bloomer he is physically, having had such a late growth spurt, there is more reason for optimism here than with the typical 21-year-old.

Summary
I’m a believer in Murphy. He’s an elite shooter who is a good bet to shoot 40 percent from 3 and be a plus defender. [url]It’s a very similar size and skill set combination to Trevor Ariza[/url], who has made nine figures in his career and has played over 1,200 games. Murphy is much more of a pure shooter and is going to be absolutely lethal spotting up from the corners. The impact that Cameron Johnson has made early in his career for Phoenix is a good barometer for how the early portion of Murphy’s career could go, except again, Murphy is a better athlete and better defender than Johnson was coming in. The counting numbers aren’t incredible here or anything with Murphy but he’s a perfect skill fit for where the NBA is going. He does all his best work off the ball, doesn’t need it in his hands to make an impact and knows how to play on both ends.

[dckingsfan]

The shot is not as broken as MKGs was and I think Garuba is a better athlete. That said I have concerns about drafting a non-threat offensively and would pass at 15 or in a trade down scenario.

Why is he a non-threat? He played on a better team in Euroleague than Avdija did - his team made the playoffs Avdija's didn't - and his offensive role grew down the stretch of the season. Just fascinating how narratives form about players. What's happening on this board with Garuba is that posters decide their opinion, and then they look at the player. When you talk about a "non-threat offensively" you are giving the impression that Garuba is Andre Roberson. When in actuality we should just say that we have no clue what Garuba could become offensively because we don't have any reference points for a guy like him. In his interview with Mike Schmit Garuba mentions that he feels comfortable leading the break. I've seen many plays where Garuba has broken down defenders closing him out. I've seen Garuba use his strength and post up smaller players. I've also seen Garuba blow past slow-footed centers.

Let's throw out his defense out of the window and only talk about his offense. There are two dualing narratives that we have to separate. The first is that Garuba is a non-entity offensively who will come in, play hard defensively but give us nothing offensively. What is this based on? My narrative is that Garuba is an athletic freak who at 18/19 was playing in the second best league in the world and had a role that arbitrarily constrained his offense. So now, fans run in watch some tape of Garuba and say he can only do x, y and z because that's all that he showed. Regardless of where he ends up, hopefully the team that drafts him attempts to develop his offense. His combination of foot speed and strength has the potential to make him a legitimate threat offensively not to mention that his shooting shows great promise.

The kid is 19 years old. Fascinating how so many people know without any doubt that he can develop offensively. If you don't thtink the Wizards can afford to let him develop offensively then say that. But then I'd point out that if all we got was playoff Garuba - knocking down open 3's at 36.8% and his ft's - we would be better in the present than if we drafted any other player. Ultimately, I think what hurts Garuba detractors is that the facts simply don't match up with the narrative they are trying to push.
'

Agreed. Are there risks that Garuba's offensive development disappoints? Sure. However, all the tools and IQ is out there. One underrated skill of his is his court vision and passing ability. The fact that Usman keeps improving offensively every year is another positive sign. Very curious to see how he does on Monday (vs. Japan) and Thursday (vs. Argentina) with his national team.

In any case, all this discussion may be moot point as I have a sneaky feeling he will be selected ahead of us...

I wanted him if we could trade down... I thought he would be a great value pick. But alas, I suspect you are right.

[DCZards]

Doc, The guy I worry the most about us taking is Jalen Johnson. I see a guy who does a few things at a proficient level, but nothing particularly well and appears to have attitude issues.
Reggie Perry last year was, in many ways, in the same boat. I get Julian Wright and Josh Jackson vibes as well (Overrated tools, TERRIBLE AST:TOV ratio, Poor FT shooting, and poor IQ/decision making).

The best comp I can find is Chris Webber, but Webber was a bit longer and 30lbs+ bigger which allowed him to be a good defender as a smaller 5.

For me, Its Wagner, Springer, Giddey, and Garuba at 15...
or trade down with NYK/OKC to take 1 of Murphy/Duarte/Butler and 1 of Queta/Petrusev/McBride

I feel very differently about Jalen Johnson. He has elite ballhandling and open court skills for a young man his size. Like most 19 year olds, he no doubt needs to improve some key aspects of his game (such as 3pt shooting) but he has the physical tools to be special.

I disagree with you about Johnson’s bball IQ. A lot of those turnovers were the result of the point forward role he was being asked to play (or tried to play) at Duke. He won’t have the same role in the NBA…at least not early in his career.

Many of the mock drafts I’ve seen have Johnson going in the 8-12 range, which is about right.

[DCZards]

On Trey Murphy, who just had a pre-draft work out with us, his stats look so eerily similar to Saddiq Bey...don't they?

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=trey-murphy-iii--saddiq-bey

To be honest, I would be fine selecting the next Saddiq Bey at #15 and even better in a trade down at #18 or #19

I've had a chance to take a closer look at Murphy. I like him. A lot. I was high on Bey going into last year's draft and I think Murphy can have a similar impact as a 3&D guy as Bey, who had an outstanding rookie season.

The Zards lineup desperately needs a long, 6-9 guy with a lethal jump shot and outstanding D.

This is what Sam Vecenie says about Murphy:

The critical skill here is shooting. Murphy is one of the best shooters in the class. Made better than 40 percent for his career from 3 on nearly 500 career attempts. Absolutely beautiful mechanics. Same exact release every time with simple upper-body movement. Terrific follow through and pristine balance on the shot. Great shot prep. Always ready to shoot off the catch. Typically goes off the hop but can also go off a 1-2 step. Has deep range, having made 43 percent of his 3s beyond 25 feet.

[nate33]

Doc, The guy I worry the most about us taking is Jalen Johnson. I see a guy who does a few things at a proficient level, but nothing particularly well and appears to have attitude issues.
Reggie Perry last year was, in many ways, in the same boat. I get Julian Wright and Josh Jackson vibes as well (Overrated tools, TERRIBLE AST:TOV ratio, Poor FT shooting, and poor IQ/decision making).

The best comp I can find is Chris Webber, but Webber was a bit longer and 30lbs+ bigger which allowed him to be a good defender as a smaller 5.

For me, Its Wagner, Springer, Giddey, and Garuba at 15...
or trade down with NYK/OKC to take 1 of Murphy/Duarte/Butler and 1 of Queta/Petrusev/McBride

I feel very differently about Jalen Johnson. He has elite ballhandling and open court skills for a young man his size. Like most 19 year olds, he no doubt needs to improve some key aspects of his game (such as 3pt shooting) but he has the physical tools to be special.

I disagree with you about Johnson’s bball IQ. A lot of those turnovers were the result of the point forward role he was being asked to play (or tried to play) at Duke. He won’t have the same role in the NBA…at least not early in his career.

Many of the mock drafts I’ve seen have Johnson going in the 8-12 range, which is about right.

Johnson gives me Jabari Parker vibes. I'm not sure if that's a good or bad thing. It's good in that he is a physically imposing athlete who can exert his will on a game just by being strong and athletic. It's bad because I don't get the sense that things he does really helps a team. But maybe he'll get better.

[NatP4]

Elite ball handling? Not a chance. Johnson filled the stat sheet for a couple of games, but otherwise, never really helped his team. His basketball IQ and motor are brutal.

Jabari Parker is a perfect comparison. Stay far away

[80sballboy]

Seth Davis from The Athletic has a list on most of the prospects mentioned here being possibly around at 15 (or guys we brought in) and some scouts' opinions.

Scottie Barnes, 6-9 freshman forward, Florida State. “Love Scottie. Freak body. Defensively he can guard one through five. If he can become a shooter he’ll be an all-star. But if he can’t then it’s a problem because no one will guard him. A kid who works that hard at everything else, I don’t doubt that’s going to come around. He can’t shoot like Draymond Green yet, but everything else he does reminds me of Draymond. He’s shown he’s willing to be a good complementary player.”

James Bouknight, 6-5 sophomore guard, UConn. “He killed it at his pro day, made every shot, but I’m not buying him as a shooter. He could be a good scorer like Jordan Clarkson. Shot the hell out of it at the Chicago pre-draft camp. He’s going to be a pretty good rebounder. You can’t make it in our league if you can’t create your own shot. He didn’t shoot it well from 3 in college and was really turnover-prone, but I think he knows what the hell he’s doing. His stroke’s not broken. Nice kid.”

Sharife Cooper, 6-1 freshman guard Auburn. “Wow, what a great kid. He’s bigger than I thought. Really knows how to change speeds to get in the paint. The poor shooting is really hard to overcome, but he’ll be in the first round because he’s just so elite at getting to spots and making plays. Also at that size, who’s he gonna guard? I don’t think he defends worth a ****. If he was a 35 percent 3-point shooter he’d be at the top of the lottery. He’s got that ball on a string. In our league you have to be able to shoot it. He plays hard and he loves basketball.”

Ayo Dosunmu, 6-5 junior guard, Illinois. “I’m not as high on Ayo as some others. He’s got great size, but I worry about his playmaking, I worry about his shooting. He’s probably a third guard or a backup. He loves watching film, he’s a junkie. He’s a good piece. His body looked terrific in Chicago. Aggressive downhill attacker. Just needs to get more consistent with his shooting. He wants to guard, which is impressive. I don’t trust him as a shooter. I hate his mechanics.”

Chris Duarte, 6-6 senior guard, Oregon. “That’s my man crush right there. He’s not what you think of when you think of a juco kid. He plays the right way, he plays really hard. Tough, physical kid. He’s just a basketball player. I know he’s 24, but whoever drafts him is getting someone who can play right away. He can dribble, pass, shoot, he guards, got a good feel. Just doesn’t have a lot of weaknesses.”

Jalen Johnson, 6-9 freshman forward, Duke. “When you meet him, he’s got tremendous size. An impressive looking player and athlete. Lotta question marks, though. Why did he choose so many high schools? Why did he quit Duke? It just seems like he runs away from adversity. I don’t trust his shooting right now. My question is, when the game grinds to halfcourt, is he the same athlete? You’re talking about a guy with a lot of physical upside. He’s going to be a first-round pick, but I wouldn’t feel good about taking him. In our league, he’s going to have to become a better shooter. I don’t think he’s malicious. He’s not a bad kid. He’s got top 10 talent, but I think he falls to the 20s.”

Keon Johnson, 6-5 freshman guard, Tennessee. “Freaky, freaky athlete. Not very polished offensively. Doesn’t shoot it great, not sure about his decision-making. If that clicks, with his size and athleticism, you’re going to have a really good player. In today’s world of positionless basketball, he can play and defend three positions. He needs to establish more variety to get his shots. If he learns to make better plays for others he’ll wind up being a star in our league. He got exposed at Tennessee because he couldn’t make a shot. His shot isn’t broken, he just needs reps. Off-the-charts unbelievable kid.”

Corey Kispert, 6-7 senior guard, Gonzaga. “He can make shots at a high level. He’s gotten better off the bounce and finishing at the rim. He’s got legit size at 6-7. He got exposed defensively in that Baylor game. He hasn’t shown he can guard big-time athletes, and that’s all he’s going to see in the NBA. I’d say he’s a streaky shooter more than an excellent shooter. He’s a fluid runner in the fullcourt but not as good of a mover in the halfcourt. His shot can be flat at times, but you can’t argue with the results. He’s a finished product.”

Davion Mitchell, 6-2 senior guard Baylor. “He’s small, not as long as you think. But he’s a high-level competitor and winner, and he’s gotten better each year at playmaking for others. Just an incredible will to compete, and from what I understand he’s a great teammate. Safe pick. I wonder how good his point guard skills are. He’s made himself into a good shooter where you can’t go underneath ball screens on him.”

Jaden Springer, 6-4 freshman guard, Tennessee. “I don’t see it with him. He’s not a point guard, he’s not an elite athlete, he doesn’t shoot it. He looks like a G League guy to me. All I heard coming into last season was what a great athlete he was. I know he played with a bad ankle so I’ll give him a pass for not showing it. I don’t quite understand where the upside is with him. He’s an OK shooter, not a terrific shooter. There’s some upside on the defensive side. I don’t think he has an identity. Is he a scorer or a point guard?”

Franz Wagner, 6-9 sophomore forward, Michigan. “He’s big, he’s versatile. Doesn’t do anything great but gives you a little bit of everything. It’s weird because he’s got good shooting form; it just doesn’t go in. I don’t feel good when it leaves his hands. He’s not confident enough in himself. Excellent passer for his size, good defender. The major question is his shooting and lateral athleticism. Super intriguing. Really good size and skill. Not the toughest kid. I’d say 10 to late teens.”

Ziaire Williams, 6-8 freshman forward, Stanford. “Loads of potential, but he had a very disappointing season. I know he had COVID issues and other things going on. He’s a 6-8 shot maker so there’s potential there. Other than Jalen Johnson, I think Ziaire has the biggest potential to drop. He gets bumped off his line a lot. I don’t think he’s the toughest kid physically. I’ve heard complaints from his coaches at every level about his work habits. There’s a lot to like there, as a 3-point shooting hybrid forward. He’s really smart, so much that I wonder if he really loves basketball, or if has so many other interests.”

Cameron Thomas, 6-4 freshman guard, LSU. “He just wakes up and gets you 20. He’s not the biggest dude. He’s not a good athlete, he doesn’t put pressure on the rim, he doesn’t play any defense. Clearly one of the most confident players in this draft. There’s no shot he doesn’t like, so he has to rein that in and be more efficient. He was allowed to do a lot of things at LSU that I just don’t see him being allowed to do as a rookie in the NBA. He’s a hard worker and his teammates trust him to make shots. Doesn’t really do much outside of scoring. I’d say late first round, but it has to be a niche for him. He drew a **** ton of fouls, but a rookie is not going to get those calls.”

[Frichuela]

At SB Nation they just run their mock draft and Kevin Broom & co selected Kispert at #15 for the Wiz....see selections below.

If this was the order in reality, and the Knicks accepted a trade down (#15 for #19 or #21 and #32)...we could end up with Garuba + #32 or Duarte + #32

At #32, we could select one of Wieskamp, Grimes, Primo, Ayayi, Preston, H Jones...

Detroit Pistons - Cade Cunningham
Houston Rockets - Jalen Green
Cleveland Cavaliers - Evan Mobley
Toronto Raptors - Jalen Suggs
Orlando Magic - Jonathan Kuminga
Oklahoma City Thunder - Scottie Barnes
Golden State Warriors - Davion Mitchell
Orlando Magic - Moses Moody
Sacramento Kings - Jalen Johnson
New Orleans Pelicans - Franz Wagner
Charlotte Hornets - James Bouknight
San Antonio Spurs - Josh Giddey
Indiana Pacers - Jared Butler
Golden State Warriors - Alperen Sengun
Washington Wizards - Corey Kispert
Oklahoma City Thunder - Keon Johnson
Memphis Grizzlies - Trey Murphy III
Oklahoma City Thunder - Isaiah Jackson
New York Knicks - Tre Mann
Atlanta Hawks - Kai Jones
New York Knicks - Sharife Cooper
Los Angeles Lakers - Usman Garuba
Houston Rockets - Miles McBride
Houston Rockets - JT Thor
Los Angeles Clippers - Jaden Springer
Denver Nuggets - Chris Duarte
Brooklyn Nets - Zaire Williams
Philadelphia 76ers - Nah’Shon Hyland
Phoeniz Suns - Josh Christopher
Utah Jazz - Ayo Dosunmu

[payitforward]

Either way if we can siphon a late pick somehow, I still am I'm stubbornly certain that, if healthy, Neemias Queta will outplay, say, Evan Mobley early in their careers. I personally think in the East, with giants like Giannis and Embiid, any team needs multiple 5's that can play large, fill space, black shots, deter drives to the paint, make smart reads on defensive positioning, rebound, foul hard. And if they can also make the smart pass, they will find minutes even in an era when small ball is a threat. I think Queta sees the floor well and will look far better when he has NBA caliber talent to pass to. His steadily increasing FT % is a signal that this is a player who will put in the work. Yeah I don't like the mechanics of his knockneed stance, seems a risk for ACL tweaks, but he is the longest and tallest player in the draft. It is rare that you get a true big with a high motor who also understands positioning and team spacing. That soccer mindset of understanding what lanes are open when some get cut off, works on both offense and defense. To my read, Queta has it. Here he is at the combine:

Watch on YouTube

Ok, I'm sold. Offensively, he can be used like Miami uses Bam. You can run the offense through him, because he's very unselfish, sees the floor, and can reach over and around anyone who tries to crowd him. He's not as quick as Bam, but he's longer and probably even better as a passer - remember that wasn't part of Bam's game at KY. Defensively, he alters everything - doesn't just hunt blocks. And a big needs good hands. I believe his hands measured the longest in the combine. Most shot-blocking bigs don't get 1 steal per 40 minutes - he got 1.4. His effect goes far beyond how many blocks he gets. He changes and discourages shots. And look at his tankathon page http://www.tankathon.com/players/neemias-queta He's got even more green than Mobley and just a tiny bit of red - yeah, he'll turn it over some when he's doubled. Hey, if he was perfect, we wouldn't have this chance to get him... with a trade down!

I'd love to see how he'll do defending Embiid. He might be one of the few centers who can do it effectively without a double-team - though as a rookie, he'll likely get taken to the cleaners.

Love the kid. He's going to be a very good NBA player. I was hoping he'd come out 2 years ago & we'd find a way to get him!

[DCZards]

Here are some highlights of Jalen Johnson at Duke. You really only need to watch the first 3 minutes or so to see the high IQ defense (steals & blocks); passing, ballhandling (especially the ability to take defenders off the dribble); and ability to go end-to-end and finish at the rim.

Pretty impressive stuff for a young man his size.

Yes, his shooting needs to improve but Johnson has the physical tools and IQ to be a quality starter at the next level.

I'm not suggesting that the Zards draft him because we need shooting (Moody, Murphy, Kispert, Butler) but don't sleep on JJ.

Watch on YouTube