Offseason Plan

[NatP4]

It’s pretty irrelevant, but just thought it was funny that Sato is magically back to being a good player. Averaging 10-6-5-2 per36 with low turnovers and a 60% TS. Pretty much like the player he was in the past with us.

Wouldn’t mind Re-signing him to be the backup PG next year. Good chemistry with Deni/Porzingis/Beal

[nate33]

It’s pretty irrelevant, but just thought it was funny that Sato is magically back to being a good player. Averaging 10-6-5-2 per36 with low turnovers and a 60% TS. Pretty much like the player he was in the past with us.

Wouldn’t mind Re-signing him to be the backup PG next year. Good chemistry with Deni/Porzingis/Beal

I'd like to bring back Sato too. That said, the one problem with Sato is that he can really disappear offensively at times. The guy has played 13+ minutes in 9 games so far. In 3 of them, he scored 0 points.

If the goal is to have a point guard who can bend a defense and allow Beal to play more off ball, Sato isn't necessarily that guy. If the goal is to put Beal back into the primary ball-handler role he's had over the past 3 years, then Sato is fine.

[NatP4]

I’m still in favor of adding complementary off ball guards that can play off Beal being the primary initiator. That’s why I love Brunson and Daniels and Sato as a backup/3rd guard.

I understand Beal’s comments about the roster, but he was also horrible this year and was playing next to a starting PG that was shooting like 30%. A lot went wrong. I think the biggest need is spacing/shooting from our starting PG.

[GoneShammGone]

...

HA! See my sole source of hope is that Tommy is a magician at making a radical change when least expected. Yeah the results are the same, but if something is not working Tommy is impatient and restless to swap it out. The Wall Westbrook LA Mob Porzingis sequence has been a giddy ride. AND the fact that there are no leaks of these things in advance (okay with John Wall there were rumors, but that is on Ted) the fact that these things pop up out of nowhere suggests that at any moment Tommy might do something crazy.

Well, this does give me a bit of hope. With all other signs seeming to point to the Wizards just caving in and giving Brad the super-max this summer, I need some shred of hope to cling to! Honestly, I'm kind of surprised that I've soured so much on Brad this season. I've always had really positive feelings toward him, the whole time he's been with the team. But this season, something's changed. His attitude feels entitled. He throws his teammates under the bus on the regular. He appears to be the appointed shadow GM and coach. It rubs me the wrong way. Maybe I'm thinking emotionally, but right now my dream is that Tommy will pull off a surprise sign-and-trade to send Brad out and get some decent young prospects or picks in return.

[Frichuela]

...

HA! See my sole source of hope is that Tommy is a magician at making a radical change when least expected. Yeah the results are the same, but if something is not working Tommy is impatient and restless to swap it out. The Wall Westbrook LA Mob Porzingis sequence has been a giddy ride. AND the fact that there are no leaks of these things in advance (okay with John Wall there were rumors, but that is on Ted) the fact that these things pop up out of nowhere suggests that at any moment Tommy might do something crazy.

Well, this does give me a bit of hope. With all other signs seeming to point to the Wizards just caving in and giving Brad the super-max this summer, I need some shred of hope to cling to! Honestly, I'm kind of surprised that I've soured so much on Brad this season. I've always had really positive feelings toward him, the whole time he's been with the team. But this season, something's changed. His attitude feels entitled. He throws his teammates under the bus on the regular. He appears to be the appointed shadow GM and coach. It rubs me the wrong way. Maybe I'm thinking emotionally, but right now my dream is that Tommy will pull off a surprise sign-and-trade to send Brad out and get some decent young prospects or picks in return.

This is my hope too, but I’m afraid is a low probability because of our genius owner…

[B8RcDeMktfxC]

I've come around on Jalen Brunson and am fully on board with trading Kuzma for him, but I don't see how to make it work for Dallas financially. The best we can do is Kuzma + Neto for Brunson (with a Brunson deal starting at $20M with full raises, if he'll take it) and then follow by trading our TPE for Trey Burke.

The motivation for Dallas is to pay Kuzma and Neto a combined $15M rather than pay Brunson and Burke a combined $23.5M given their luxtax issues. But I'm not sure that's enough incentive. If I was Dallas, I'd probably rather just keep Brunson, or just let him walk rather than absorbing Kuzma and Neto.

So with Brunson seeming unlikely, I think the likely scenario is that we will add an MLE PG (hopefully Tyus Jones, but maybe a guy like Rubio) and draft a guard. But with the draft strong in SG's and weak and PG's, I'm assuming we will draft a SG. My guess is that they'll grab Mathurin since he appears to have the most NBA-ready skillset right now.

On whether Dallas would want to make a trade: I think a lot depends on how their playoff campaign goes in terms of how badly they want to keep Brunson, how much he wants to stay in Dallas/get out and what Dallas would like to acquire if they do move him. They do have a pretty strong motivation to reacquire their 2023 FRP from New York if possible - so that they have more flexibility to trade future picks. However, if they do want to let Brunson go and can't do a deal with the Knicks, I don't think Dallas would want to have Brunson just walk away - they sort of need to get some tradeable assets for him, even if it means paying tax, if they want to make a run at a championship with Luka in the next 3 seasons.

Nevertheless, even without getting into Dallas's proclivities, I don't think the Kuzma+Neto for Brunson and Burke idea quite works. Neto is a UFA this summer. Moreover, the numbers to me seem to work better paying Brunson around about $22m as a start and throwing Ish Smith into the trade in place of Neto.

[doclinkin]

...

HA! See my sole source of hope is that Tommy is a magician at making a radical change when least expected. Yeah the results are the same, but if something is not working Tommy is impatient and restless to swap it out. The Wall Westbrook LA Mob Porzingis sequence has been a giddy ride. AND the fact that there are no leaks of these things in advance (okay with John Wall there were rumors, but that is on Ted) the fact that these things pop up out of nowhere suggests that at any moment Tommy might do something crazy.

Well, this does give me a bit of hope. With all other signs seeming to point to the Wizards just caving in and giving Brad the super-max this summer, I need some shred of hope to cling to! Honestly, I'm kind of surprised that I've soured so much on Brad this season. I've always had really positive feelings toward him, the whole time he's been with the team. But this season, something's changed. His attitude feels entitled. He throws his teammates under the bus on the regular. He appears to be the appointed shadow GM and coach. It rubs me the wrong way. Maybe I'm thinking emotionally, but right now my dream is that Tommy will pull off a surprise sign-and-trade to send Brad out and get some decent young prospects or picks in return.

I think Beal gets the max but not the super-max. Everyone has said "the deal is still on the table". And Brad was reassured it still was when he went down with season ending injury. After a season in which he admits he has played "sh*tty", and with rehab from an injury, I get the sense he was worried that was in jeopardy. I don't see any contending teams with the room or capital to trade for Beal at either Max or Super-Max. It still hamstrings the team to pay a decent player as if he were a star, but it's slightly less of a cap-choking load. Tommy will do what he promised, but any time someone mentions the offseason and the super-max he reassures he wants to keep Brad, and the 'deal is on the table".

Tommy does not trade Brad unless he wants out. If a contending team makes a play for him. I suspect Brad's agent will want an opt-out option for/after 2025 when the new TV deal will kick in. The Wiz are big on giving player options. And Brad has said once you are locked into a 5 year deal "you're pretty much hooked".

[AFM]

Nate, have you said what you would pay Beal in a vacuum?

[FAH1223]

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[mhd]

I'm making the resigning of Gil a priority. Kispert raved about him. He seems an excellent teammate who is always cheering. You need the 12-15 men to be comfortable not playing regularly, but at the same time, being ready to play when called upon.

[FAH1223]

I'm making the resigning of Gil a priority. Kispert raved about him. He seems an excellent teammate who is always cheering. You need the 12-15 men to be comfortable not playing regularly, but at the same time, being ready to play when called upon.

I agree. You definitely need guys like that on your bench. Just a smart guy and you’ve heard Kuzma also rave about him.

[thinker07]

Of all the things assumed about Beal, but never really critically challenged is that winning at a high level is very important to him. I just haven't seen any real evidence that this is true other than when someone says it, it seems plausible. It's kind of the same thing with Ted, except people are more willing to challenge the assumption that he really wants to win at a high level. I don't know that either one is burning to win a championship.

So if we set aside that notion that winning is the highest priority, then it makes sense for Ted and Beal to do a max deal. To me that's by far the likeliest result this summer.'

I've been following Dallas recently and I've seen two things:
1) They see Dinwiddie as insurance if Brunson leaves, and
2) Somehow because of the contract Brunson signed, Dallas does not have his full Bird Rights. So they expect to lose him and given how Dinwiddie is playing, they are more or less OK with that

After the Wiz announced their pre-season games in Japan this fall, I think there is ZERO chance they trade Rui this summer.

If someone like Tyus Jones can't be signed, and the Wiz have to trade for a PG, I'd guess they trade Kuzma rather than KCP because he's such good friends with Beal and is a somewhat better defender.

My PG trade targets would include: Melton, Monte Morris, Cole Anthony, Coby White, maybe Devonte Graham. Not Brogdon because of his injury history and $22 mil contract.

I think next year they will roll with a core of Beal and Porzingis
KCP
Rui, Deni, Kispert
traded PG or Jones
Lottery pick
Mish mash of others

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

I believe our off-season plan is the same as it’s been each of the past few years. Finish as the league’s 9th worst team.

[nate33]

Of all the things assumed about Beal, but never really critically challenged is that winning at a high level is very important to him. I just haven't seen any real evidence that this is true other than when someone says it, it seems plausible.

I think that's pretty harsh. Wanting to win and having the innate ability to lead a team to winning are too different things. There is no doubt in mind about Beal's work ethic. He busts his butt every year to improve his game, to the point where he has pretty much maxed out his physical ability. That shows me he has a desire to win.

I suppose if he REALLY wanted to win, he could volunteer to be paid the vet minimum so we can put more talent around him, but to expect him to do that is pretty absurd. I don't blame any player for prioritizing money over winning.

I've been following Dallas recently and I've seen two things:
1) They see Dinwiddie as insurance if Brunson leaves, and
2) Somehow because of the contract Brunson signed, Dallas does not have his full Bird Rights. So they expect to lose him and given how Dinwiddie is playing, they are more or less OK with that

Dallas has Bird Rights. They can pay him whatever they want, up to the max. What they don't have is restricted free agency rights. Brunson can choose to depart even if Dallas offers the most money. The biggest issue is that Dallas is already about $4M over the luxtax before factoring Brunson's salary. If they resign him, they will pay a massive luxtax. Paying him $20M next year will actually cost ownership $70M!

After the Wiz announced their pre-season games in Japan this fall, I think there is ZERO chance they trade Rui this summer.

Good point.

If someone like Tyus Jones can't be signed, and the Wiz have to trade for a PG, I'd guess they trade Kuzma rather than KCP because he's such good friends with Beal and is a somewhat better defender.

... and we have three other capable forwards in Kispert, Avdija and Hachimura, not to mention Gill if he returns.

My PG trade targets would include: Melton, Monte Morris, Cole Anthony, Coby White, maybe Devonte Graham.

None of those guys are a significant enough upgrade over available free agents (Rubio, Wright, GPII, Sexton, Sato, Neto) to be worth the loss of Kuzma. I'd rather keep Kuzma (or trade him for a draft pick) and just try to muddle through.

[NatP4]

Trade Kuzma for a pick and trade Rui for Jalen Suggs if you can’t pull off the Kuzma for Brunson S&T. There’s risk with the Rui deal, but I still think Suggs is gonna be a stud.

Pretty much any of the teams in the 20-30 range of the draft would move that pick for Kuzma. Then you can draft a really solid piece in Kennedy Chandler/Christian Braun/Matteo Spagnolo/Dalen Terry.

Re-signing Gill should be a priority. He’s the best PF on the roster.

One of Sharpe/Murray could still possibly fall to our pick. If not, you take Dyson Daniels.

The full MLE is still in play for a guy like Tyus Jones.

The wiz have PLENTY of good options going into this off-season.

[tleikheen]

Bradley Beal was wanting a PG who is tall ,athletic ,and can get to the basket .Someone who hasnt been mentioned that plays terrific defense as well is Dante Exum who is playing for the top team in the Euro league ,Barcelona. His problem isn't lack of talent ,it's his injury history and thats why he's playing in the Euroleague to show he can play without getting injured. As a player he's alot better than Neto ,Smith or Satoransky. Also he probably can come at a good salary.

[doclinkin]

If GM Brad is any indicator I'd bet Kuzma is the one out the door, since he mentioned the strengths of all the young guys but not Kuz, and mentioned we needed big ballhandlers who can get into the paint. Kuz plays as a face-up player who does drive into the paint, rebounds and all. Following this Kuz then tweeted something about "self-awareness is a virtue". Like maybe he and Brad have had friction.

Interesting to see how this plays out. According to other teams, the Wiz front office apparently made everyone available for trade at the deadline except Brad and Kuz (and one more? I forget who else was mentioned, but I think it might have been 3 players). Maybe Brad does not like sharing the spotlight or whatnot. Shrug.

[Zonkerbl]

The problem this team had this year is they got frustrated on the offensive end and got away from their identity - a gritty defensive team with so so offensive talent. If they had stuck with that identity they'd be a 50 win team. You can't get sucked up in the general NBA offense only attitude. You need to be happy that you're winning, even if you're only scoring 80 ppg. That's who these players are, it's delusional to think they would be successful on offense. Management moneyballed together this terrific defensive team and then they threw it all away by being selfish, and Brad was the number one culprit, imho. They lost a few games where a quick footed guard took advantage of their slow foot speed and they just completely lost their commitment to the defensive system. Or well maybe once the system got scouted it turned out to be completely ineffective if you attack it the right way. What do I know.

I would dump Brad - the prospect of paying him the max terrifies me.

[nate33]

If GM Brad is any indicator I'd bet Kuzma is the one out the door, since he mentioned the strengths of all the young guys but not Kuz, and mentioned we needed big ballhandlers who can get into the paint. Kuz plays as a face-up player who does drive into the paint, rebounds and all. Following this Kuz then tweeted something about "self-awareness is a virtue". Like maybe he and Brad have had friction.

Agreed. If someone is going to be traded for a PG, it's Kuzma. It probably makes the most sense (assuming Beal is retained) since we have the depth at forward even if Kuzma is out. Just give a bunch more minutes to Avdija and Hachimura, and promote Gill to 4th forward rather than the 5th guy who only plays once every third game.

For a while there, Kuzma was indispensable because he brought a shot creation skill that the team sorely needed with Beal out. But with the addition of Porzingis, Kuzma is no longer that essential. Beal and Porzingis can perform the primary option role. We need the rest of our forwards to be highly efficient on lower usage while playing good D. Kispert, Avdija and Hachimura can handle that role just as well as Kuzma, at a lower cost.

I'm really hoping Sheppard can somehow turn Kuzma and a little extra salary filler (Bryant or Neto in a S&T) into Brunson, giving us a pretty well-rounded rotation of:

PG Brunson/Sato
SG Beal/KCP
SF Kispert/Avdija
PF Hachimura/Avdija
C Porzingis/Gafford

But I like to group them by offensive roles more so than positions:

Game manager: Brunson/Sato
Secondary creator ball handler: Beal/Avdija
Mobile wing shooter: Kispert/KCP
Stationary floor spacing big: Hachimura/Gill
Center: Porzingis/Gafford

That's a respectable 10-man rotation. Add a lottery pick at PG, SG or SF, and you can build from there. We also still have Vernon Carey as a 3rd string center.

[thinker07]

Of all the things assumed about Beal, but never really critically challenged is that winning at a high level is very important to him. I just haven't seen any real evidence that this is true other than when someone says it, it seems plausible.

I think that's pretty harsh. Wanting to win and having the innate ability to lead a team to winning are too different things. There is no doubt in mind about Beal's work ethic. He busts his butt every year to improve his game, to the point where he has pretty much maxed out his physical ability. That shows me he has a desire to win.

I suppose if he REALLY wanted to win, he could volunteer to be paid the vet minimum so we can put more talent around him, but to expect him to do that is pretty absurd. I don't blame any player for prioritizing money over winning.

I've been following Dallas recently and I've seen two things:
1) They see Dinwiddie as insurance if Brunson leaves, and
2) Somehow because of the contract Brunson signed, Dallas does not have his full Bird Rights. So they expect to lose him and given how Dinwiddie is playing, they are more or less OK with that

Dallas has Bird Rights. They can pay him whatever they want, up to the max. What they don't have is restricted free agency rights. Brunson can choose to depart even if Dallas offers the most money. The biggest issue is that Dallas is already about $4M over the luxtax before factoring Brunson's salary. If they resign him, they will pay a massive luxtax. Paying him $20M next year will actually cost ownership $70M!

After the Wiz announced their pre-season games in Japan this fall, I think there is ZERO chance they trade Rui this summer.

Good point.

If someone like Tyus Jones can't be signed, and the Wiz have to trade for a PG, I'd guess they trade Kuzma rather than KCP because he's such good friends with Beal and is a somewhat better defender.

... and we have three other capable forwards in Kispert, Avdija and Hachimura, not to mention Gill if he returns.

My PG trade targets would include: Melton, Monte Morris, Cole Anthony, Coby White, maybe Devonte Graham.

None of those guys are a significant enough upgrade over available free agents (Rubio, Wright, GPII, Sexton, Sato, Neto) to be worth the loss of Kuzma. I'd rather keep Kuzma (or trade him for a draft pick) and just try to muddle through.

I agree that Beal works very hard to improve and I agree that he lacks the leadership temperament to win at times. I'm not saying he doesn't care about winning, but all his effort is just as easily explainable by saying he's doing everything he can to get a max contract. I would say the same thing about Lillard. Many of the most elite athletes are motivated by the intense hate of losing more that the intense love of winning I just don't see that fire in Beal.

Thank you for the clarification on Brunson's contract. But if Dallas can't afford the luxury tax to keep Brunson, why would they take Kuzma (unless there was a third team in the trade)?

My PG targets above are just based on who might be plausibly available at some reasonable price. And I'm not saying that I'd trade Kuzma, only that the Wiz might. If Kuzma continues with his recent level of play, he'll certainly opt out after next year and command a much higher deal than the Wiz will want to pay because presumably that year will be the first year of the new deal Rui seems certain to sign this summer.

If the Wiz can get an acceptable PG for the MLE and get a lotto player who can make an impact right away then maybe they keep Kuzma one more year. But if they're keeping Rui no matter what, at a certain point they need to start him.