Official Trade Thread Part XLVII

[payitforward]

1. I like Sarr. He's the guy I would have picked. & he may turn out to be a terrific player. Or not. No certainty either way. & there is certainly not much reason to predict optimistically based on his play in March.

2. Sarr is NOT going to be traded. Not for a high pick in the '25 draft. Not for anything. Not now, anyway -- & not for a while. Which makes the discussion of what he would be worth in draft assets kind of pointless.

3. It's good to be optimistic about our rookies. But, Alex has had a really lousy rookie year. March has been better than earlier months, but don't kid yourself: he hasn't been especially good overall in March.

[Despy]

He's 4/5th in rookie of the year odds which while not great is far from terrible

[prime1time]

I'd advocate for it if it got us a pick in the 3-8 range.

LOL. Yeah lets trade a guy who just ran circles around Jokic and played his best game for the 8th pick in the draft straight up.

I’m not going to read too much into Sarr scoring easily against a player who does not defend the perimeter at all. That was a great situation for Alex that he won’t have many nights.

But, while I’m certainly not opposed to trading Sarr for the right deal, I see maybe 3-4 players I’d take in this draft with some confidence that they’re going to be better than Sarr 2-3 yrs from now. After that it’s a crapshoot…just like it was when drafting Sarr.

Who?

[prime1time]

What's the best 2025 draft pick we could get by trading Sarr?

The questions surrounding Sarr have already been answered. Before the draft we are looking at Sarr and navigating a range of possibilities. Now we have seen him have success. The first two months of the season Sarr shot 24.6% from 3, 37.6% from the field and put up 10.6 ppg. In March Sarr is shooting 37% from 3 on 5.4 3's a game, 38.7% from the field and 15.9 ppg. For a player that is very raw and needs to develop it would take a lot to get Sarr. Because Sarr has shown improvement and progress the chances of trading Sarr zero. I would take #1 straight up or the second pick plus. So either Flagg straight up or Harper and another first. A team would be better off just drafting either player and developing them.

This is crazy. The questions surrounding Sarr have absolutely not been answered. If you are pointing toward March as some indication that he has turned the corner, then we should all be really disappointed. So far in March, his TS% is .487! For a center! Yeah, his scoring is up, but at that efficiency, more scoring isn't actually a good thing.

I'm not saying Sarr can't become a good player. We all see the raw potential. But so far, he is NOT a good player and one 34 point night that took him 30 mostly unguarded shot attempts doesn't change that.

Please list the players who will be so much better than Sarr

[prime1time]

All these people advocating trading Sarr would be advocating trading the guy we traded for lol.

These hot takes are laughable. "Jokic doesn't play defense." "Unguarded shot attempts". This is flawed basketball analysis because you choose to ignore what makes Sarr special. Sarr's open because teams would rather opposing teams centers protect the paint than guard opposing centers at the 3-point line. It's not just that Sarr is open, it's that he's a mismatch for Joker.If you overplay him to the three point line, then he starts cutting or putting the ball on the floor and blowing by you because Sarr is faster and quicker than the guy guarding him. If Sarr is making 3's, there's no way Joker can guard him.

But because some people on this board don't like Sarr all basketball analysis goes out the window. It's not that Alex has worked relentlessly on his game, changed his shot form, improved his handles or anything else. It's that the opposing defense was lazy. What you're seeing with Sarr right now will be the story for the rest of his career. If teams refuse to go small against Sarr he will make them pay period. Guy starts showing improvement - lets trade him as soon as possible.

[prime1time]

1. I like Sarr. He's the guy I would have picked. & he may turn out to be a terrific player. Or not. No certainty either way. & there is certainly not much reason to predict optimistically based on his play in March.

2. Sarr is NOT going to be traded. Not for a high pick in the '25 draft. Not for anything. Not now, anyway -- & not for a while. Which makes the discussion of what he would be worth in draft assets kind of pointless.

3. It's good to be optimistic about our rookies. But, Alex has had a really lousy rookie year. March has been better than earlier months, but don't kid yourself: he hasn't been especially good overall in March.

Honest question, why don't you compare 19 year old rookies to other 19 year old rookies? Does it make more sense to evaluate Sarr based on other young rookies or should we compare him to everyone at his position the vast majority of which are significantly older?

[NatP4]

Dyson Daniels just put up 25-7-7 on 12 shots

[payitforward]

1. I like Sarr. He's the guy I would have picked. & he may turn out to be a terrific player. Or not. No certainty either way. & there is certainly not much reason to predict optimistically based on his play in March.

2. Sarr is NOT going to be traded. Not for a high pick in the '25 draft. Not for anything. Not now, anyway -- & not for a while. Which makes the discussion of what he would be worth in draft assets kind of pointless.

3. It's good to be optimistic about our rookies. But, Alex has had a really lousy rookie year. March has been better than earlier months, but don't kid yourself: he hasn't been especially good overall in March.

Honest question, why don't you compare 19 year old rookies to other 19 year old rookies? Does it make more sense to evaluate Sarr based on other young rookies or should we compare him to everyone at his position the vast majority of which are significantly older?

That's a perfectly good point. We don't draw the same conclusions from a 19-year old's play that we draw from a veteran's play. But, even when we simply look at the play of this year's rookies, Alex has not done well. & anyway, we don't want to think about whether he'll be as good as other rookies -- we want to think about how good he's going to be overall. Nor are we looking for him to be "average" -- he was the 2d pick in the NBA draft!

In fact, Sarr's difficulties so far are pretty clear & well-defined: he's shooting a sub-par 3 point % (but it's improving -- probably not a long-term issue, wch is good!), he's shooting a sub-par 2-point % (compared either to a Forward or a Center), & he's sub-par from the FT line as well.

The rest of his numbers are subject to a different interpretation if we view him as a Center than if we view him as a Forward.

Compared to an average Center, his rebounding numbers, don't look good. But... if you compare them to average PF numbers, they don't look nearly as bad.

Now... basically he's been playing Center not Forward, right? So his rebounding & his 2-point % both cause significant concern, especially insofar as they reflect a style of play he might not be able to alter.

But, since we all know he's not a prototypical Center & that he wants to play Forward, we probably have to stake our hopes for him on his success making that transition!

[Dat2U]

All these people advocating trading Sarr would be advocating trading the guy we traded for lol.

These hot takes are laughable. "Jokic doesn't play defense." "Unguarded shot attempts". This is flawed basketball analysis because you choose to ignore what makes Sarr special. Sarr's open because teams would rather opposing teams centers protect the paint than guard opposing centers at the 3-point line. It's not just that Sarr is open, it's that he's a mismatch for Joker.If you overplay him to the three point line, then he starts cutting or putting the ball on the floor and blowing by you because Sarr is faster and quicker than the guy guarding him. If Sarr is making 3's, there's no way Joker can guard him.

But because some people on this board don't like Sarr all basketball analysis goes out the window. It's not that Alex has worked relentlessly on his game, changed his shot form, improved his handles or anything else. It's that the opposing defense was lazy. What you're seeing with Sarr right now will be the story for the rest of his career. If teams refuse to go small against Sarr he will make them pay period. Guy starts showing improvement - lets trade him as soon as possible.

What are you even talking about? I helped drive the Sarr bandwagon. It's not hating to be honest. Defenses don't quite see Sarr as a threat yet and that's to be expected. But if he keeps having games where he's making 4 or 5 3s then the scouting report will change and when it does he'll open up the driving lanes for others and himself. How is this hating?

[nate33]

All these people advocating trading Sarr would be advocating trading the guy we traded for lol.

These hot takes are laughable. "Jokic doesn't play defense." "Unguarded shot attempts". This is flawed basketball analysis because you choose to ignore what makes Sarr special. Sarr's open because teams would rather opposing teams centers protect the paint than guard opposing centers at the 3-point line. It's not just that Sarr is open, it's that he's a mismatch for Joker.If you overplay him to the three point line, then he starts cutting or putting the ball on the floor and blowing by you because Sarr is faster and quicker than the guy guarding him. If Sarr is making 3's, there's no way Joker can guard him.

But because some people on this board don't like Sarr all basketball analysis goes out the window. It's not that Alex has worked relentlessly on his game, changed his shot form, improved his handles or anything else. It's that the opposing defense was lazy. What you're seeing with Sarr right now will be the story for the rest of his career. If teams refuse to go small against Sarr he will make them pay period. Guy starts showing improvement - lets trade him as soon as possible.

What are you even talking about? I helped drive the Sarr bandwagon. It's not hating to be honest. Defenses don't quite see Sarr as a threat yet and that's to be expected. But if he keeps having games where he's making 4 or 5 3s then the scouting report will change and when it does he'll open up the driving lanes for others and himself. How is this hating?

Don't worry, Dat2U. He's mostly talking about me. I'm the "Sarr hater" on this board.

I stand by my analysis of the Denver game. Jokic was dogging it on defense the whole night. He didn't even try to run out and guard Sarr. Sarr was taking literal WIDE OPEN shots, he took 28 of them to get to 29 points (ignoring free throws). It was definitely a game where his stat line was deceiving. He did nothing impressive that game other than making half of a whole lot of wide open looks.

That said, his last 2 outings look a bit more impressive. He is scoring at roughly the same per minute rate with better shooting and rebounding.

[prime1time]

All these people advocating trading Sarr would be advocating trading the guy we traded for lol.

These hot takes are laughable. "Jokic doesn't play defense." "Unguarded shot attempts". This is flawed basketball analysis because you choose to ignore what makes Sarr special. Sarr's open because teams would rather opposing teams centers protect the paint than guard opposing centers at the 3-point line. It's not just that Sarr is open, it's that he's a mismatch for Joker.If you overplay him to the three point line, then he starts cutting or putting the ball on the floor and blowing by you because Sarr is faster and quicker than the guy guarding him. If Sarr is making 3's, there's no way Joker can guard him.

But because some people on this board don't like Sarr all basketball analysis goes out the window. It's not that Alex has worked relentlessly on his game, changed his shot form, improved his handles or anything else. It's that the opposing defense was lazy. What you're seeing with Sarr right now will be the story for the rest of his career. If teams refuse to go small against Sarr he will make them pay period. Guy starts showing improvement - lets trade him as soon as possible.

What are you even talking about? I helped drive the Sarr bandwagon. It's not hating to be honest. Defenses don't quite see Sarr as a threat yet and that's to be expected. But if he keeps having games where he's making 4 or 5 3s then the scouting report will change and when it does he'll open up the driving lanes for others and himself. How is this hating?

Don't worry, Dat2U. He's mostly talking about me. I'm the "Sarr hater" on this board.

I stand by my analysis of the Denver game. Jokic was dogging it on defense the whole night. He didn't even try to run out and guard Sarr. Sarr was taking literal WIDE OPEN shots, he took 28 of them to get to 29 points (ignoring free throws). It was definitely a game where his stat line was deceiving. He did nothing impressive that game other than making half of a whole lot of wide open looks.

That said, his last 2 outings look a bit more impressive. He is scoring at roughly the same per minute rate with better shooting and rebounding.

And if you ignore Sarr's 5 made 3's and 5 free throws then he he actually went 7/19 and only scored 14 points. Far from being a good game, it was actually a bad game. This analysis raises a whole new set of questions. Is it possible for a player to have a good game, if we ignore what a player does good. I'll actually have to think about this one lol.

[AFM]

What are you even talking about? I helped drive the Sarr bandwagon. It's not hating to be honest. Defenses don't quite see Sarr as a threat yet and that's to be expected. But if he keeps having games where he's making 4 or 5 3s then the scouting report will change and when it does he'll open up the driving lanes for others and himself. How is this hating?

Don't worry, Dat2U. He's mostly talking about me. I'm the "Sarr hater" on this board.

I stand by my analysis of the Denver game. Jokic was dogging it on defense the whole night. He didn't even try to run out and guard Sarr. Sarr was taking literal WIDE OPEN shots, he took 28 of them to get to 29 points (ignoring free throws). It was definitely a game where his stat line was deceiving. He did nothing impressive that game other than making half of a whole lot of wide open looks.

That said, his last 2 outings look a bit more impressive. He is scoring at roughly the same per minute rate with better shooting and rebounding.

And if you ignore Sarr's 5 made 3's and 5 free throws then he he actually went 7/19 and only scored 14 points. Far from being a good game, it was actually a bad game. This analysis raises a whole new set of questions. Is it possible for a player to have a good game, if we ignore what a player does good. I'll actually have to think about this one lol.

The way to analyze Sarr is to remove the good and only consider the bad. Conversely, the way to analyze Deni Avdija is to remove his bad games, and focus on the good ones.

[nate33]

What are you even talking about? I helped drive the Sarr bandwagon. It's not hating to be honest. Defenses don't quite see Sarr as a threat yet and that's to be expected. But if he keeps having games where he's making 4 or 5 3s then the scouting report will change and when it does he'll open up the driving lanes for others and himself. How is this hating?

Don't worry, Dat2U. He's mostly talking about me. I'm the "Sarr hater" on this board.

I stand by my analysis of the Denver game. Jokic was dogging it on defense the whole night. He didn't even try to run out and guard Sarr. Sarr was taking literal WIDE OPEN shots, he took 28 of them to get to 29 points (ignoring free throws). It was definitely a game where his stat line was deceiving. He did nothing impressive that game other than making half of a whole lot of wide open looks.

That said, his last 2 outings look a bit more impressive. He is scoring at roughly the same per minute rate with better shooting and rebounding.

And if you ignore Sarr's 5 made 3's and 5 free throws then he he actually went 7/19 and only scored 14 points. Far from being a good game, it was actually a bad game. This analysis raises a whole new set of questions. Is it possible for a player to have a good game, if we ignore what a player does good. I'll actually have to think about this one lol.

Nobody is ignoring his 3's. And the only reason I ignored the FT's was I was trying to analyze specifically how he was shooting from the field when he wasn't guarded. If you want to factor the FT's and the FGA's necessary to generate those free throws, then he scored 34 points on 30 mostly unguarded shots. My point still stands.

[NatP4]

Deni just put up 36-8-7 on 16 shots

[Skybox]

Rolled in here to see how you guys feel about Poole given his season…personally, I think it’s a trick

He is who he is…an inefficient overpaid empty stats offensive machine…which is exactly what ORL could accommodate - if enough salary went out. WAS shouldnt feel the same urgency as ORL and could swap with the focus on draft equity more so than worrying about cap management just yet…

ORL sends: KCP, WCJ, Cole, Suns/WAS 26 draft swap rights*, Den 25 frp
WAS sends: Poole, AJ Johnson, Kispert

* so WAS would have BOTH 1st & 2nd positions in what looks like a strong draft- huge upside move potentially- a sensible swing forWAS?

[prime1time]

Rolled in here to see how you guys feel about Poole given his season…personally, I think it’s a trick

He is who he is…an inefficient overpaid empty stats offensive machine…which is exactly what ORL could accommodate - if enough salary went out. WAS shouldnt feel the same urgency as ORL and could swap with the focus on draft equity more so than worrying about cap management just yet…

ORL sends: KCP, WCJ, Cole, Suns/WAS 26 draft swap rights*, Den 25 frp
WAS sends: Poole, AJ Johnson, Kispert

* so WAS would have BOTH 1st & 2nd positions in what looks like a strong draft- huge upside move potentially- a sensible swing forWAS?

Easy no

[prime1time]

Rolled in here to see how you guys feel about Poole given his season…personally, I think it’s a trick

He is who he is…an inefficient overpaid empty stats offensive machine…which is exactly what ORL could accommodate - if enough salary went out. WAS shouldnt feel the same urgency as ORL and could swap with the focus on draft equity more so than worrying about cap management just yet…

ORL sends: KCP, WCJ, Cole, Suns/WAS 26 draft swap rights*, Den 25 frp
WAS sends: Poole, AJ Johnson, Kispert

* so WAS would have BOTH 1st & 2nd positions in what looks like a strong draft- huge upside move potentially- a sensible swing forWAS?

Easy no

And Poole has been very good for us. A team would have to blow us away to trade him.

[payitforward]

Respectfully disagree, prime....
Obviously, I don't think that Poole has been good this year -- tho he's certainly not as awful as last year! Turning his salary into draft assets & expirings would be great.

Now... I'm not interested in trading AJ Johnson, but with adjustment to fix that problem I'm delighted to move Poole.

[pcbothwel]

Rolled in here to see how you guys feel about Poole given his season…personally, I think it’s a trick

He is who he is…an inefficient overpaid empty stats offensive machine…which is exactly what ORL could accommodate - if enough salary went out. WAS shouldnt feel the same urgency as ORL and could swap with the focus on draft equity more so than worrying about cap management just yet…

ORL sends: KCP, WCJ, Cole, Suns/WAS 26 draft swap rights*, Den 25 frp
WAS sends: Poole, AJ Johnson, Kispert

* so WAS would have BOTH 1st & 2nd positions in what looks like a strong draft- huge upside move potentially- a sensible swing forWAS?

Close, but we can’t just toss in AJ for that package. We’ll toss in a 2nd or maybe something with Bey

[nate33]

Rolled in here to see how you guys feel about Poole given his season…personally, I think it’s a trick

He is who he is…an inefficient overpaid empty stats offensive machine…which is exactly what ORL could accommodate - if enough salary went out. WAS shouldnt feel the same urgency as ORL and could swap with the focus on draft equity more so than worrying about cap management just yet…

ORL sends: KCP, WCJ, Cole, Suns/WAS 26 draft swap rights*, Den 25 frp
WAS sends: Poole, AJ Johnson, Kispert

* so WAS would have BOTH 1st & 2nd positions in what looks like a strong draft- huge upside move potentially- a sensible swing forWAS?

That 2026 swap is worthless to us. The Wizards are already getting the best pick among WAS/PHX. The Orlando swap is only a swap for the worst of the WAS/PHX pick after we have taken the best.

The Kispert for Cole swap is pretty much a wash. Both guys are decent 6th/7th men type of players being paid $13M.

Basically, you are only giving up the late 2025 Denver pick to get a pretty significant upgrade from KCP to Poole while sticking us with WCJ's contract that lasts until the end of time and he's really no better than an MLE type of guy. If we needed a 20mpg center, I'd rather go sign a guy like Capela for less money. And then your having us throw in an interesting 2024 FRP that we haven't even kicked the tires on yet.