Tre Johnson: welcome to the DMV

[dobrojim]

When the season begins, we will remain one of the
youngest least experienced teams in terms of who
actually plays. That often means you won't be very good.

[prime1time]

Hard to say. Tre looked incredibly comfortable in SL which is a great sign. Like I said earlier, and I'm almost never wrong, I anticipate Tre winning ROY.

Tre has the talent, but I question how many opportunities Tre will get. Wizards are not a good team. I wouldn't be surprised if we had a situation where a lot of players were trying to get there's and we didn't play good team ball. In the modern NBA everyone spends the offseason working on new one-on-one scoring skills or 3-point shooting. With no settled roles and everyone trying to prove themselves it could potentially be a toxic situation. The challenge for Tre is that he's really only impacting the game one way right now, scoring. How many shot attempts do we think Tre gets a game?

[DCZards]

Hard to say. Tre looked incredibly comfortable in SL which is a great sign. Like I said earlier, and I'm almost never wrong, I anticipate Tre winning ROY.

Tre has the talent, but I question how many opportunities Tre will get. Wizards are not a good team. I wouldn't be surprised if we had a situation where a lot of players were trying to get there's and we didn't play good team ball. In the modern NBA everyone spends the offseason working on new one-on-one scoring skills or 3-point shooting. With no settled roles and everyone trying to prove themselves it could potentially be a toxic situation. The challenge for Tre is that he's really only impacting the game one way right now, scoring. How many shot attempts do we think Tre gets a game?

“Toxic situation.” I can’t see that happening. What I see at all levels is stability and leadership—and unselfish guys who play the right way—which will mitigate the chances of it becoming a toxic situation.

Front Office: Winger & Dawkins
Coaches: Keefe & Vanterpool
Vets: McCollum, Middleton & Gill
Youngins’: Bub, Bilal & Ky

[doclinkin]

Hard to say. Tre looked incredibly comfortable in SL which is a great sign. Like I said earlier, and I'm almost never wrong, I anticipate Tre winning ROY.

Tre has the talent, but I question how many opportunities Tre will get. Wizards are not a good team. I wouldn't be surprised if we had a situation where a lot of players were trying to get there's and we didn't play good team ball. In the modern NBA everyone spends the offseason working on new one-on-one scoring skills or 3-point shooting. With no settled roles and everyone trying to prove themselves it could potentially be a toxic situation. The challenge for Tre is that he's really only impacting the game one way right now, scoring. How many shot attempts do we think Tre gets a game?

Frankly I think Tre will get as many shots as he can hit.

I’m not worried about him lacking touches. This team has players that are too unselfish at times.

Bub is a pass first guard. We’ve seen Bub in interviews say that if he passes to Tre he better shoot it. (Or say Jonathan Pierre doesn’t shoot enough). Tre remarked that he and Bub are the same player except Bub passes more.

Kyshawn prides himself on making reads and smart passes. Sarr would rather pass from the short roll than drive to the hoop. Players like CJ and Khris are pros pros, they will pass to Tre if he’s open. Both have remarked that he’s a shooter. Clearly impressed with his talent.

In truth Tre is the only real 2 guard on this team as far as not only hitting open shots but creating off the dribble. CJ has that skill suite but he’s 6’3”. Tre is prototypical 2 guard height with a 6’10” wingspan.

Chiefly though this team has lacked reliable outside shooting. Coaches will play the guy who sinks them. We’ve seen Tre’s shot is quick and pure. I expect the only thing that would keep Tre off the floor is if he’s lagging in defensive energy.

We need his offense. Last year only Poole would hit the shot if we were blanking. This year we added CJ Khris and Cam but they all play different spots than Tre. CJ can play PG. Khris is hyper efficient, he will shoot if it’s the smart play, pass if not. Cam is a gunner but you want him to go off. If he starts scoring he plays better. And Tre, I think defenses will be tortured by how quick his shot goes up. If he drops them in as easy as he did in college then opponents are going to have him in red on their scouting report.

As for toxic. I don’t see those players on this team. No whiners. No divas. Reputation wise only Cam and Vukcevic have been tagged with that label. And then mostly on not playing defense. Both seem to be growing up in that regard.

[payitforward]

I hope Tre starts out strong, but I don't think we should be putting much emphasis on that as an issue. No matter how else you describe him, the single biggest fact about Tre Johnson is that he's a 19-year-old kid.

[doclinkin]

I hope Tre starts out strong, but I don't think we should be putting much emphasis on that as an issue. No matter how else you describe him, the single biggest fact about Tre Johnson is that he's a 19-year-old kid.

Balderdash. Fiddlesticks.

There are 5.17 million 19 yr olds in the US. He’s one. But the single biggest fact about Tre Johnson is he was a skilled enough shooter to get picked at the top of the draft by professional scouts and NBA front offices.

It absolutely is fair for fans of a team to project his role based on what he’s shown so far and reports of teammates.

Sure we may get it wrong. Alright maybe the front office will slow play his development. Doesn’t seem likely given all they’ve stated and their recent history. They played Bilal 27 mins a game on a team with Deni and Kuzma. Last year they played their rookies a record number of minutes. Posting, by total minutes played, the historically youngest team ever. Averaging 23.5 years old. I don’t think the team is worried about his age.

Age or no: He will get minutes. If he gets minutes he will get touches. If he gets touches he will shoot. It may take a minute for him to calibrate against NBA defenders. He may miss instead of hitting 40% from 3 as he did in college. But with enough reps he should find his comfort zone.

‘Should’ because of: eye test. History. Scouting reports. Yeah sometimes those go awry. Or he takes a minute to adjust. Folks did trash Beal or Porter early. But early word is Tre looks good. He can shoot the ball pure. Off the catch. Off the bounce. Assisted or solo. We haven’t had that player here. We tend to draft the guys who may be good IF ONLY they can learn to shoot. Not this one. That skill he’s got. If he’s the kid we think we drafted for we should see good results. Shooters shoot.

[tontoz]

yeah most 19 yr olds come into the league raw and lacking skills. That isn't Tre. He has high level skills already and i expect them to show.

[dckingsfan]

I think that this breaks down into a best case, worst case and probable scenarios, no?

Best case scenario is that Tre is a ROY candidate on offense, plays lots of minutes and is productive on the offensive side of the ball (not just shooting).

Worst case scenario is that Tre struggles with the speed and physicality of the NBA game and he just isn't effective on the offensive side of the ball.

The probable scenario is that his elite shooting translates and he picks up the nuances of the NBA game and gets used to the speed and physicality as the season progresses.

On the defensive side of the ball, the best case scenario is that Tre is a meaningful defender and not a liability.

The worst case scenario is that he is just a flat out defensive liability.

The probable scenario is that he will have some good games and many bad games (along with this woeful defensive team).

He has come into camp uninjured, seems to be picking things up (if we believe the propaganda out of the Wizards machine ) and clearly is slotted for a starting role. I might lean into something between the probable and best case scenarios on offense and probable and worst case scenarios on defense (given how bad a defensive team this was last year).

[dobrojim]

I hope Tre starts out strong, but I don't think we should be putting much emphasis on that as an issue. No matter how else you describe him, the single biggest fact about Tre Johnson is that he's a 19-year-old kid.

Balderdash. Fiddlesticks.

There are 5.17 million 19 yr olds in the US. He’s one. But the single biggest fact about Tre Johnson is he was a skilled enough shooter to get picked at the top of the draft by professional scouts and NBA front offices.

It absolutely is fair for fans of a team to project his role based on what he’s shown so far and reports of teammates.

Sure we may get it wrong. Alright maybe the front office will slow play his development. Doesn’t seem likely given all they’ve stated and their recent history. They played Bilal 27 mins a game on a team with Deni and Kuzma. Last year they played their rookies a record number of minutes. Posting, by total minutes played, the historically youngest team ever. Averaging 23.5 years old. I don’t think the team is worried about his age.

Age or no: He will get minutes. If he gets minutes he will get touches. If he gets touches he will shoot. It may take a minute for him to calibrate against NBA defenders. He may miss instead of hitting 40% from 3 as he did in college. But with enough reps he should find his comfort zone.

‘Should’ because of: eye test. History. Scouting reports. Yeah sometimes those go awry. Or he takes a minute to adjust. Folks did trash Beal or Porter early. But early word is Tre looks good. He can shoot the ball pure. Off the catch. Off the bounce. Assisted or solo. We haven’t had that player here. We tend to draft the guys who may be good IF ONLY they can learn to shoot. Not this one. That skill he’s got. If he’s the kid we think we drafted for we should see good results. Shooters shoot.

Let's also not forget another indicator of his precociousness, 1st freshman to lead the SEC in scoring and broke KD's
frosh records at Texas. He'll be fine.

[DCZards]

Frankly I think Tre will get as many shots as he can hit.

I’m not worried about him lacking touches. This team has players that are too unselfish at times.

Bub is a pass first guard. We’ve seen Bub in interviews say that if he passes to Tre he better shoot it. (Or say Jonathan Pierre doesn’t shoot enough). Tre remarked that he and Bub are the same player except Bub passes more.

I’m with you doc. Bub’s game and Tre’s game are well-suited for each other.

Tre also said that he likes that Bub is quick to pass the ball ahead on the break.

Like any rook, Tre will struggle at times but his elite shotmaking and ability to get his shoot up before the defense has a chance to react will pay dividends from the get-go.

[payitforward]

I hope Tre starts out strong, but I don't think we should be putting much emphasis on that as an issue. No matter how else you describe him, the single biggest fact about Tre Johnson is that he's a 19-year-old kid.

Balderdash. Fiddlesticks.

There are 5.17 million 19 yr olds in the US. He’s one. But the single biggest fact about Tre Johnson is he was a skilled enough shooter to get picked at the top of the draft by professional scouts and NBA front offices.

It absolutely is fair for fans of a team to project his role based on what he’s shown so far and reports of teammates.

Sure we may get it wrong. Alright maybe the front office will slow play his development. Doesn’t seem likely given all they’ve stated and their recent history. They played Bilal 27 mins a game on a team with Deni and Kuzma. Last year they played their rookies a record number of minutes. Posting, by total minutes played, the historically youngest team ever. Averaging 23.5 years old. I don’t think the team is worried about his age.

Age or no: He will get minutes. If he gets minutes he will get touches. If he gets touches he will shoot. It may take a minute for him to calibrate against NBA defenders. He may miss instead of hitting 40% from 3 as he did in college. But with enough reps he should find his comfort zone.

‘Should’ because of: eye test. History. Scouting reports. Yeah sometimes those go awry. Or he takes a minute to adjust. Folks did trash Beal or Porter early. But early word is Tre looks good. He can shoot the ball pure. Off the catch. Off the bounce. Assisted or solo. We haven’t had that player here. We tend to draft the guys who may be good IF ONLY they can learn to shoot. Not this one. That skill he’s got. If he’s the kid we think we drafted for we should see good results. Shooters shoot.

May it be so....
Again, the guy I compare him to is Devin Booker, who took a few years (IMO) to turn into the terrific player he is.

[doclinkin]

Right? Offensively I’m liking the potential in the Bub Tre Cam trio. Reported good chemistry between either one with Bub. I can see synergy. Bubs rebounding helps jump start the break with outlet pass. Pressure up court with Cam outrunning the D, can’t sag off Tre as the trail man who will sink the 3 if unmarked.

Small ball but with Bilal and Sarr in the line up you’d have a speed and athletic mismatch in the front court over anybody. I’d want Bilal to get stronger. Sarr too. But hey. You want them healthy and playing at all first.

[nate33]

Right? Offensively I’m liking the potential in the Bub Tre Cam trio. Reported good chemistry between either one with Bub. I can see synergy. Bubs rebounding helps jump start the break with outlet pass. Pressure up court with Cam outrunning the D, can’t sag off Tre as the trail man who will sink the 3 if unmarked.

Small ball but with Bilal and Sarr in the line up you’d have a speed and athletic mismatch in the front court over anybody. I’d want Bilal to get stronger. Sarr too. But hey. You want them healthy and playing at all first.

I'll be interested to see if any of Bilal, Kyshawn or Tre develop the playmaking chops to run the offense. If so, we can experiment with lineups involving all 3 of those guys plus Sarr and one of Middleton, Champagnie, or Whitmore. That's a very tall, long and switchable defensive unit with Bilal at the point of attack and Sarr protecting the rim. There's enough size at the wings to mitigate Sarr's poor rebounding.

[9 and 20]

Commanders game on today and looking through here during breaks. Made me think of Tre Johnson the Redskin many years ago. Apparently teaches high school now at a private school in Bethesda. Good for him!

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think you are better off being a mid-lottery team and hope for some good luck - the odds aren't all that different.

Except if we are a mid lottery team this year then New York has our pick. Then the odds of us winning are zero percent.

Teams slip a spot or two every year. As often as not the Wizards are the team that skids down a couple. That’s not a thing we need to risk. If we were going to keep our pick the commitment to super young developmental players had to be early and consistent. Going full send on a kindergarten team this year is all about that. Because otherwise you’re wasting TWO assets: our own pick and the deviously clever pick swap we finagled in the Phoenix trade.

I’ve been all in on those pick swaps since they were made public. They jiu jitsu the mathematics so we have a greater likelihood of climbing into a top spot than Every other team. All we have to do is keep our pick. Then it’s looking like our odds plus PHX odds float us a top 3 pick 7 times out of 10.

But if not then we lose out on a year when there may be as many as 3 franchise players.

Now consider if we chose to build quick. Not commit hard to the tank. Build around Deni, complement him with quality players. Managed a mid lotto team the Bilal year. Added improvement each year after that. No tanking. No youth movement.

Maybe we still had a top 10 pick last year. But got better. How tough would it be now in year 3 to keep that pick? How would that feel if we didn’t. Say Phoenix catches the top pick and New York finds a steal with the #9 guy.

That’s a front office that probably is looking for another job.

After this year though it’s the other way around. We can try to win all we want and still add talent. We can make trades or bid on Jalen Duren / Tari Eason/ Dyson Daniels with that $100m in cap space. We have young assets to trade. All to hopefully build around a franchise player we steal with the PHX pick or a lucky bounce of our own.

But then with the various extra picks and swaps they’ve added we might still be picking in the lotto while the team is already winning.

Not me. I’m comfortable taking a few years of struggle rather than the misery of watching a good player shift to both New York AND Phoenix, while we have to listen to fans gripe about both players for the length of their career.

Tank. Tank on. Tank hard. Tank with an overload of youth. With too many experimental line ups. With no real interior defenders. Tank in every way you can that lets the players fight hard but still lose. Until we are finally done with the legacy of the past regime. Then we can judge the new guys in their own merits of trying to build a winner. We’re not there yet.

We need to tank, but I'm not too worried about tanking hard. I'm mostly just focused on keeping that Phoenix swap. We can't fall to 9th in the draft, which means we need to finish among the bottom 6 teams. I won't be all that upset if we finish 5th or 6th worst instead of in the bottom 3 though.

Las Vegas odds for the bottom 7 teams.

Code: Select all

Team   Win Total
Utah Jazz              18.5
Brooklyn Nets          20.5
Washington Wizards     21.5
Charlotte Hornets      27.5
New Orleans Pelicans   30.5
Phoenix Suns           31.5
Chicago Bulls          32.5

If those Vegas odds turn out to be fairly accurate for the other bottom-feeders, I wouldn't mind at all finishing with 28 or so wins. It would be an encouraging 10-game jump from our 2024-25 season, while still keeping us firmly in the top of the lottery. And with the Phoenix swap, we would still have the best lottery odds among all the teams.

Thirty.

I would like to see thirty wins with breakout seasons from Tre Johnson and Kyshawn George. Those two and Will Riley could emulate OKC's backcourt.

I think Watkins will be solid off the bench.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

2023 Bilal, Cam, Vuk
2024 Alex, Bub, Kyshawn, AJJ, Dillon Jones
2025 Tre, Riley, Watkins, Jonathan Pierre.

With that many draftees from the last 3 years you gotta figure somebody breaks out from the pack to outperform the guys picked ahead of them. If you get 3 or more hits from the group you’re doing better than most GMs.

I get the feeling Tre Johnson will be that guy this year. The player that other teams kick themselves over letting him slip. We got him by falling back as far as we could. If so then the tank worked. Fell as far back as possible and still got the purported best shooter in the draft. You like hearing reports of guys like Middleton who raises his eyebrows talking about him saying “he’s a shooter”. Liking his confidence and range.

The player that’s probably a lock to outperform many of the guys picked ahead of him is Kyshawn. He’s a 24th pick who would likely be a late lotto pick in a redraft.

Not an all-star but a smart, versatile, toolsy kid on both ends of the court…a taller Derrick White.

Kyshawn is a good pick. That is already apparent, IMO.

I expect Will Riley will do the same.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Watch on YouTube

WNBA has some bad noise happening too

Really raises my suspicions about being a fan.

My daughter who follows the W closely says this is
pure clickbait. Sorry for posting without some verification.

I do think WNBA officiating could be corrupt. It's too bad not to be intentional.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I hope Tre starts out strong, but I don't think we should be putting much emphasis on that as an issue. No matter how else you describe him, the single biggest fact about Tre Johnson is that he's a 19-year-old kid.

Balderdash. Fiddlesticks.

There are 5.17 million 19 yr olds in the US. He’s one. But the single biggest fact about Tre Johnson is he was a skilled enough shooter to get picked at the top of the draft by professional scouts and NBA front offices.

It absolutely is fair for fans of a team to project his role based on what he’s shown so far and reports of teammates.

Sure we may get it wrong. Alright maybe the front office will slow play his development. Doesn’t seem likely given all they’ve stated and their recent history. They played Bilal 27 mins a game on a team with Deni and Kuzma. Last year they played their rookies a record number of minutes. Posting, by total minutes played, the historically youngest team ever. Averaging 23.5 years old. I don’t think the team is worried about his age.

Age or no: He will get minutes. If he gets minutes he will get touches. If he gets touches he will shoot. It may take a minute for him to calibrate against NBA defenders. He may miss instead of hitting 40% from 3 as he did in college. But with enough reps he should find his comfort zone.

‘Should’ because of: eye test. History. Scouting reports. Yeah sometimes those go awry. Or he takes a minute to adjust. Folks did trash Beal or Porter early. But early word is Tre looks good. He can shoot the ball pure. Off the catch. Off the bounce. Assisted or solo. We haven’t had that player here. We tend to draft the guys who may be good IF ONLY they can learn to shoot. Not this one. That skill he’s got. If he’s the kid we think we drafted for we should see good results. Shooters shoot.

Let's also not forget another indicator of his precociousness, 1st freshman to lead the SEC in scoring and broke KD's
frosh records at Texas. He'll be fine.

I agree. Tre put up even better numbers than freshman Cameron Thomas did, coming out of LSU.

I remember suggesting Thomas would be a good to great scorer in the NBA.

Tre Johnson will be 1st Team All Rookie if not ROTY.

[dckingsfan]

Except if we are a mid lottery team this year then New York has our pick. Then the odds of us winning are zero percent.

Teams slip a spot or two every year. As often as not the Wizards are the team that skids down a couple. That’s not a thing we need to risk. If we were going to keep our pick the commitment to super young developmental players had to be early and consistent. Going full send on a kindergarten team this year is all about that. Because otherwise you’re wasting TWO assets: our own pick and the deviously clever pick swap we finagled in the Phoenix trade.

I’ve been all in on those pick swaps since they were made public. They jiu jitsu the mathematics so we have a greater likelihood of climbing into a top spot than Every other team. All we have to do is keep our pick. Then it’s looking like our odds plus PHX odds float us a top 3 pick 7 times out of 10.

But if not then we lose out on a year when there may be as many as 3 franchise players.

Now consider if we chose to build quick. Not commit hard to the tank. Build around Deni, complement him with quality players. Managed a mid lotto team the Bilal year. Added improvement each year after that. No tanking. No youth movement.

Maybe we still had a top 10 pick last year. But got better. How tough would it be now in year 3 to keep that pick? How would that feel if we didn’t. Say Phoenix catches the top pick and New York finds a steal with the #9 guy.

That’s a front office that probably is looking for another job.

After this year though it’s the other way around. We can try to win all we want and still add talent. We can make trades or bid on Jalen Duren / Tari Eason/ Dyson Daniels with that $100m in cap space. We have young assets to trade. All to hopefully build around a franchise player we steal with the PHX pick or a lucky bounce of our own.

But then with the various extra picks and swaps they’ve added we might still be picking in the lotto while the team is already winning.

Not me. I’m comfortable taking a few years of struggle rather than the misery of watching a good player shift to both New York AND Phoenix, while we have to listen to fans gripe about both players for the length of their career.

Tank. Tank on. Tank hard. Tank with an overload of youth. With too many experimental line ups. With no real interior defenders. Tank in every way you can that lets the players fight hard but still lose. Until we are finally done with the legacy of the past regime. Then we can judge the new guys in their own merits of trying to build a winner. We’re not there yet.

We need to tank, but I'm not too worried about tanking hard. I'm mostly just focused on keeping that Phoenix swap. We can't fall to 9th in the draft, which means we need to finish among the bottom 6 teams. I won't be all that upset if we finish 5th or 6th worst instead of in the bottom 3 though.

Las Vegas odds for the bottom 7 teams.

Code: Select all

Team   Win Total
Utah Jazz              18.5
Brooklyn Nets          20.5
Washington Wizards     21.5
Charlotte Hornets      27.5
New Orleans Pelicans   30.5
Phoenix Suns           31.5
Chicago Bulls          32.5

If those Vegas odds turn out to be fairly accurate for the other bottom-feeders, I wouldn't mind at all finishing with 28 or so wins. It would be an encouraging 10-game jump from our 2024-25 season, while still keeping us firmly in the top of the lottery. And with the Phoenix swap, we would still have the best lottery odds among all the teams.

Thirty.

I would like to see thirty wins with breakout seasons from Tre Johnson and Kyshawn George. Those two and Will Riley could emulate OKC's backcourt.

I think Watkins will be solid off the bench.

30 wins puts us ~5th from the bottom, it would be a nice and encouraging jump. Hopefully next year we get super luck, stay in the lottery (maybe even lose a play-in game) but at the top and then get another (like how I did that) top 4 pick.

[payitforward]

That's a big jump. I'd be more than satisfied w/ 25 wins.

Anyway... who knows? The most important thing is to see meaningful development from Bilal, Sarr, Bub & Kyshawn. & solid signs from Tre....

Note that last year, 30 wins was 7th from the bottom -- Toronto, & they picked 9th. The previous year, 30 wins would have been 8th from the bottom.

That result this year will cost us our pick, so... no thanks!