Official Countdown Grunfeld Era-2nd SuperStar?

[JonathanJoseph]

^ Well, it's obviously a smart person - whoever they are.

Seriously, I don't see anything there that shouldn't be obvious. The team is absolutely positioned to make some moves in the offseason, and also has moves it can make at the deadline. Ernie has been the guy behind that, and I don't know how fair it is to task a guy with creating that flexibility but then not allowing him the chance to use it.

Still, I'm not naive. I understand that the case can be made that a completely fresh start is needed. Flip being fired doesn't make him a bad NBA coach (or mean that Wittman is better than Flip), he's just not the right fit for right here, right now. So if Ernie isn't retained, it doesn't mean he's not a good GM (or not as good as whoever they bring in), just that the team wants to go in a different direction. And I understand that it works out that way sometimes.

I agree that the extreme cap flexibility the Wizards have is a credit to Grunfeld. And I still think some of the young talent is really promising beyond the obvious (I think all of Vesely, Singleton, Mack, Booker and Seraphin are all going to play in the league). Grunfeld's strength AND weakness is that he gets enamored with potential. So far, Arenas, Blatche, McGee and Wall (Grunfeld's 4 biggest "high potential players") have all turned out to be "worst case scenario" so far, and that's no exaggeration. That's just poor luck. One has to assume that trend cannot continue if for nothing other than blind luck.

But that doesn't excuse the otherwise disastrous state of the franchise which is on his watch. The culture is bad and the personnel is bad and it has been for numerous consecutive years. It's just time for a fresh start. Ted comes from the cutthroat technology sector, I can't see him keeping Grunfeld nor do I want him to even though I like and respect Grunfeld as an executive.

[daSwami]

Sounds like Mitch Kupchak might be available soon. He's a former Bullet.

[hands11]

The biggest problem with everything EG did early on was not realizing who Gil was. Gil was a great kid the first couple years. You needed to look deeper to see that he was going to get drunk on ego if he was lead dog on a team that needed a star. Gil would have taken a different path if he went to an established team. But that is the catch 22. Gil wanted to be in the lime light. DC was like crack to Gil and Gil was like crack to DC.

And even if you know what Gil was about ( ) even I didnt see the gun thing. That wasnt the worst cause scenario, that was off the charts.

EG was kind of between a rock and a hard place.

Initially, he didnt have high picks but he did have a core of 3-4 players that were good in Gil, CB, AJ and Haywood. He brought Gil, AL and CB here. He did well enough doing that. I will always say of those three, AJ was the biggest mistake. He wasnt a starting PF.

So he was swinging for the fence looking for some talent after that with mid first round picks or later. He needed a stretch big so he got OP. They got Dray. Later they got McGee because they needed a center. Problem was, as this thing blow up, they were not the type of players you add to on a rudderless ship. You needed players like Ves, Booker, Mack and Singleton. So once it all blow up, that is what he did. Then is was even more clear what type of player they needed.

A valid point would be to argue, you always have to add players with character first. Never go on talent and potential alone. Rarely do talent and upside get very far without character. Players like Cousins are going be the wrong pick 9 out of 10 times. You cant go reading on the player like that cus you will get burned most the time.

[LyricalRico]

So he was swinging for the fence looking for some talent after that with mid first round picks or later. He needed a stretch big so he got OP. They got Dray. Later they got McGee because they needed a center. Problem was, as this thing blow up, they were not the type of players you add to on a rudderless ship. You needed players like Ves, Booker, Mack and Singleton. So once it all blow up, that is what he did. Then is was even more clear what type of player they needed.

And this is why I've been willing to give Ernie more time. The guys who have been the biggest problems were guys that he took chances on with lower picks in order to supplement a roster with entrenched veteran starters. I look at it the same as I do the Flip hire - those guys weren't necessarily bad picks when they happened, they just aren't what you need for the team's current situation. The problem is that the team kept Flip for too long after the situation changed, and they are making the same mistakes with the pre-Ted players.

It was clear to me last year that specific roster changes were in order and IMO they should have been made immediately after last season. Ernie should have seen it, too. Maybe he did but the lockout limited his options so he decided to stay the course. Maybe if there wasn't a lockout, things would be different. I don't know. But the reality is that he has stuck with a few of these guys for too long and it's hurting the franchise.

I still give Ernie a lot of credit for the way the franchise is currently positioned for the summer, and I like the guys he has brought in since pulling the plug on the previous roster. I'm still not opposed to him remaining with the team, but I'm slowly realizing that going in a different direction may be the better option. I just don't want any of McGee/Blatche/Young on the team next year, and I'm approaching the point where I just don't trust Ernie to let them all go. I'll see what happens at the deadline. Maybe he'll give me a reason to keep believing.

[JonathanJoseph]

The biggest problem with everything EG did early on was not realizing who Gil was. Gil was a great kid the first couple years. You needed to look deeper to see that he was going to get drunk on ego if he was lead dog on a team that needed a star. Gil would have taken a different path if he went to an established team. But that is the catch 22. Gil wanted to be in the lime light. DC was like crack to Gil and Gil was like crack to DC.

I disagree completely. Arenas was a full blown star before he hurt his knee and I would argue he was still improving. Had a peak-Arenas been teamed with an all-star caliber 4 or 5 no one knows what could have happened. We know that Larry Hughes, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler were all flawed players that Arenas made better than they actually were.

Let's not pretend like in retrospect Arenas was a waste of money or Grunfeld overpaid. There were multiple teams wiling to offer him a max deal and losing Arenas as a free agent wasn't a credible option.

I give Grunfeld a pass on the entire Arenas era. And I like much of the maneuvering he's done since blowing up the Arenas era.

But whereas Arenas was bad luck, Grunfeld has made a major, major commitment of time and resources to Andray Blatche who seemingly never had the personal qualities to justify such an investment. Same with Nick Young and you can see that following with Javale McGee and maybe John Wall.

The current Wizards season is due mostly to the collective awful play from those 4 players at least 3 of whom were to be the cornerstones of this rebuild. And that's all on Grunfeld.

[closg00]

Puff-piece feature in today's Post on Wizards GM for-life Ernie Grunfeld.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... ory_1.html

[whataknight301]

Its time for Ted to take the dog behind the barn and finish it...

[whataknight301]

Ive had enough of the way this organization do things.every DC team has the same F'in disease...
.

[whataknight301]

Puff-piece feature in today's Post on Wizards GM for-life Ernie Grunfeld.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... ory_1.html

What a croc of **** this article was...omg

[fishercob]

You know, you can look at the Wizards roster and say "yeah, they suck, but they only have two lottery picks on the entire roster (Wall and Vesely). So even if JV turns out to be a bust, it's not like Ernie's really had fair opportunity to improve via the draft, because we have all these studies showing us the likely impact of a player based on draft position....."

And then you look at the Indiana Pacers.

Granger: 17th
Paul George: 10th
Hansbrough: 13th
Hibbert: 17th

They traded Troy Murphy for Darren Collison. They traded a broken Jermaine Oneal for the Hibbert pick. They traded for and drafted the right guys.

We have NOTHING. When you look at the two markets and franchises side by side it's crystal clear that Ernie has been an abject failure. Hording picks is useless if your draft the wrong guys. Making trades is useless is your big score is Jordan Crawford or Kevin Seraphin. Enough of this sh*t already.

[no D in Hibachi]

Keep preaching Fish, I quit the O’s cold turkey years ago because management/ownership was so inept cheering for the team went from joyful to misery—the team is absolutely without hope. I’m extremely close to throwing in the towel on the Wiz as well.

As long as Ted/EG are steering the ship this Washington professional basketball team is without hope. I love Ted and his passion, but his business acumen will not translate to professional sports. You can’t take a business model from one team and apply it to your own. No two teams in NBA history have been the same, no two teams in NBA history have been built the same. Ted needs to get off of this ‘OKC Model’ and appropriately build this team around Wall. Also, the NBA isn’t like NHL either so accumulating massive hoards of young enthusiastic players won’t work either. His vision is partially to blame in why this team is in such disarray.

That said, EG must go. He’s lost his eye for talent. This team is so pathetically miserable it’s painful to even watch. If Ted re-signs EG after this season I’ll quit. No sense in any wasting more of my time on a hopelessly mismanaged organization beyond this year if Ted/EG remain intact.

[llcc25]

Keep preaching Fish, I quit the O’s cold turkey years ago because management/ownership was so inept cheering for the team went from joyful to misery—the team is absolutely without hope. I’m extremely close to throwing in the towel on the Wiz as well.

As long as Ted/EG are steering the ship this Washington professional basketball team is without hope. I love Ted and his passion, but his business acumen will not translate to professional sports. You can’t take a business model from one team and apply it to your own. No two teams in NBA history have been the same, no two teams in NBA history have been built the same. Ted needs to get off of this ‘OKC Model’ and appropriately build this team around Wall. Also, the NBA isn’t like NHL either so accumulating massive hoards of young enthusiastic players won’t work either. His vision is partially to blame in why this team is in such disarray.

That said, EG must go. He’s lost his eye for talent. This team is so pathetically miserable it’s painful to even watch. If Ted re-signs EG after this season I’ll quit. No sense in any wasting more of my time on a hopelessly mismanaged organization beyond this year if Ted/EG remain intact.

I'm gonna disagree with respect to the blame on Leonsis. There is nothing wrong with his vision in building a winner and desire for accumulating draft picks and wanting to follow the "OKC model". The blame should come squarely on EG at this point for assembling the team that is front of us and making the bad picks that he has. EG as GM is the one tasked with implementing the owner's vision. And so far, he has failed in the implementation due his poor eye for talent and not picking the right pieces that complement Wall. Now, if Ted doesn't keep EG accountable at season's end feels EG is still the right man for the job, then I'm ok with putting the blame at Ted's feet as well.

[Nivek]

To underscore Fish's point -- the Twolves are just as young, but are 14-12. The Thunder are young, but 17-8. Philly is young, but 21-5. Memphis is young, but 14-12. Youth is not the issue, it's the quality of the players.

[Zonkerbl]

Ok, let's compare our core to OKC, T-wolves, Philly, and Memphis.

John - #1 - 2nd year
N1 - 16th - 5th year
Singleton - 18th - rookie
Ves - 6 - rookie
Booker - 23rd - 2nd year
Blatche - 49th - 7th (?) year
McGee - 18th - 4th year

I'm not counting Lewis as part of our core. I'm not penalizing us for throwing away the #5 pick because we likely would not have ended up with Wall. These are the assets we inherited from the Pollin era and have accumulated in the Ted area (so perhaps I'm unfairly forgiving the whiff on Pecherov).

Our franchise player is in his 2nd year. Besides him, the only other top ten pick we have on our roster is Vesely, who is a rookie. We have NO vets contributing significantly. Next year our franchise player will be in his 3rd year, we will likely add a top five pick, and have the cap room to sign a vet.

Here's OKC's core:
Kevin Durant: 2nd - 5th year
Russell Westbrook: 4th - 4th year
Serge Ibaka - 24th - 4th year
Daequan Cook - 21st - 5th year
Kendrick Perkins - 27th - 9 years
James Harden - 3rd - 2 years
Reggie Jackson - 24th - Rookie

OKC has a number 2 pick, a number 4 pick, and a number 3 pick on their roster. They have a 9 year vet at center. Kevin Durant, their franchise player, is in his 5th year.

Timberwolves:
Rubio - 5th pick - rookie
Kevin Love - 5th pick - 4th year
Wes Johnson - 4th - 2nd year
Luke Ridnour - 14th - 9th year
Darko Milicic - 2nd - 9th year
Derrick Williams - 2nd - rookie
Michael Beasley - 2nd - 4th year.

Interestingly, only one player in Minnesota's core was not a top ten pick, although Milicic and Beasley probably shouldn't count. Minnesota's franchise player, Kevin Love, is in his 4th year. Minnie's starting five has three legit top five picks.

Philly
Andre Igoudala - 9th - 8th year
Elton Brand - 1 - 13th year
Battie - 5th pick - 15th year
Drue Holliday - 17th - 2nd year
Jodie Meeks - 11th pick - 2nd year
Evan Turner - 2nd pick - 2nd year
Lou Williams - 2nd rounder - 7th year

Phillie has three vets in its starting five. Yes, they have some young players, but they are not by any means a young team.

Memphis
Tony Allen - 25th - 8th year
Mike Conley - 4th - 5th year
Rudy Gay - 8th pick - 6th year
Speights - 16th - 4th year
Marc Gasol - 2nd rounder - 5th year
O.J. Mayo - 3rd pick - 4th year.

Memphis has only one top five pick in its starting rotation, lucking out in their pick of Marc Gasol in the second round. The closest Memphis has to a franchise player is Rudy Gay. Of the four teams, this is the fairest comparison to us. Like us, they have a surprisingly productive 2nd rounder in their starting rotation. They do not have a lot of high draft picks on their roster. However, none of their core has less than 4 years of experience.

You cannot fairly compare the Wizards to OKC, Minnie, Phillie, or Memphis. All of those teams have more top five draft picks on their roster, have more vets, and more experience in the league. None of those teams has the combination of youth, low draft picks expected to contribute in the starting five, and absolutely no quality vets. Our vets are Lewis and Mo Evans, and I guess Turiaf, all essentially vet minimum, end of the roster players. We don't have a Marc Gasol, Perkins, or even a Battie on our roster.

OKC, and Minnie's franchise players have at least 4 years of experience. Compare the wizards to OKC and Minnie two years from now, when we've added a high draft pick and a vet. And yeah, I betcha we'll still suck. But I don't find it a valid criticism of Ernie to look at OKC, Minnie, Phillie, and Memphis and say Ernie's failed because we're not as good as those teams, who are all at least two years ahead of us in their development plans. Minnesota was 17-65 last year. In Durant's 2nd season OKC lost 59 games, although they did start to play well in the second half of the season.

I'm not saying EG doesn't suck, but I think saying he sucks because we are not as good as these other four teams is really unfair.

[Nivek]

I'm not saying Ernie sucks because the Wiz aren't as good as those other teams. I'm saying "we're young" isn't an excuse. Young teams win all the time. It becomes an excuse when the team sucks. The problem with the Wizards this year is that the players aren't good enough. Not because they're too young, but because they're just not good enough. I don't see any way to reason my way around to Ernie having done an okay job at talent evaluation when the roster is this bad.

[Zonkerbl]

I'm curious -- which of the four "young" teams mentioned above has a 16th pick, two #18 picks, and a second rounder in its starting five? Is it Ernie's fault that those players are mediocre?

[FAH1223]

Ernie picks guys who can't shoot, can't rebound, and can dunk

[Zonkerbl]

God, I feel like I'm defending Ernie. Look, Ernie is why we're in this mess. Even without Arenas' injury, he overpaid for a team that could not play perimeter defense, and stuck with EJ way too long. Arenas' stupidity forced us into rebuilding mode faster than we would have otherwise, but the fundamental mess is of EG's creation. EG sucks and he should go once his contract is up.

But this roster sucks because it is what it is -- a starting five with basically four players who were picked after the top 15.

[JAR69]

I'm curious -- which of the four "young" teams mentioned above has a 16th pick, two #18 picks, and a second rounder in its starting five? Is it Ernie's fault that those players are mediocre?

The players with the most minutes last night on the team that soundly beat us were a #47, a #39, a #32, a #17, a #2, and undrafted.

[closg00]

I'm curious -- which of the four "young" teams mentioned above has a 16th pick, two #18 picks, and a second rounder in its starting five? Is it Ernie's fault that those players are mediocre?

The players with the most minutes last night on the team that soundly beat us were a #47, a #39, a #32, a #17, a #2, and undrafted.

Case closed