Jan Vesely

[doclinkin]

Did he have a backpack full of rocks on when he was officially weighed?

In his shorts:

[closg00]

Who-cares about his shooting %, someone get this guy a stylist ASAP and burn that shirt.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc- ... _blog.html

[Dat2U]

Now that the hype of the draft is over, ive had time to think.

Jan needs to develop his shot, become a GOOD 3 pt shooter, work on his handles and work on his core strength to muscle up to some of the bigger NBA small forwards and finish through contact. He has good offensive instincts from what i have seen, and is a pretty good man defender, but this also needs improving. Then, i'm thinking we have a Batum-plus type of player, longer and a more explosive finisher. If he cant do any of that then im afraid we have a bust on our hands and i have a bad feeling that "Blake Griffin is the American Jan Vesely" will be one of those terrible quotes that will come back to haunt us, embarass Jan, will be mentioned during the firing of EG, and remain in RealGM Clipperfan signatures for many years to come.

The idea of him at PF is as weak as the KG comparison. Yeah, ok, Jan may have the same competitive fire, and hes coming into the league tall and rather skinny, and is considered by some to be a tweener. I think thats where any comparison ends. KG was as skinny as Jan, but he was also, what... 4 years younger? Unless Jan holidays on the Jersey Shore and hits the juice regularly this off/lockout season, he is never going to have the strength or bulk it would require for him to successfuly play at PF. Plus, if we have him bulk up too much, it impacts his athleticism, which is at the moment his #1 reason for even being here.

We have no idea how well he does or doesnt rebound, so i wont mention that, but again to play at PF it has to be something he does well. We'll have to wait and see there.

I think many were enamoured when the FO mentioned Jan at PF because it meant we have a prospect to maybe one day replace Blatche. I just dont think that will happen, and im one of the guys that wants Blatche gone soon. Jan should be treated as a SF prospect, i believe its really the only position where he has any chance to even be a good player. With Lewis and Singleton eating minutes, he will really have to work on his shooting and perimeter defense to get a shot there.

In saying that though, with a bit more strength I think he could be one to successfully guard Nowitzki and such perimeter oriented bigs. But Jan the PF is a stretch, and has a greater failure chance than Jan the SF imo.

Ok, I'm back from my self-imposed sabbatical from draft night.

I've watched about as much video as I possible could to get a better feel for Vesely over the last few weeks, There is nothing about Vesely's game that indicates he can be an effective offensive player from the SF position. At least at this stage of his career and development.

The jump shot is incredibly shaky. I don't think inconsistent is the word. It's definitely unreliable. He's very capable of launching up an air ball or hitting the side of the backboard. Some shots are way off. This would indicate to me that the scouting report indicating he had poor touch on his shot is true. I'd say it's somewhere in between Jamison (respectable) and Jeffries (very poor). Not as bad as O-Face mind you, but not someone you'd want to depend on to make shots.

The ball handling itself is very limited. But the decision making with the ball in his hands is simply terrible. This is not a guy were going to want to ISO and create offense for. Didn't seem very effective in face up scenarios. He can take two dribbles but anything more and your asking for a turnover. He's got no advanced ball handling moves. As mentioned he's got a terrible habit of leaving his feet and forcing a bad pass when his scoring option is taken away.

Now I guess in theory he's capable of developing these tools and becoming a useful player. My problem with that is, he's supposedly the Euro prospect that was most ready to contribute in the league. He's already a key member of a Euroleague rotation. He's already 21 yrs old. Yet none of his perimeter skills are developed to a satisfactory level. This gives me some pause.

So, going forward, Vesely either needs to play PF or he needs to play with a PF that has the perimeter skills to offset his weaknesses on offense. You could argue that the PF could be Andray but looking at Andray's percentages on jumpers that might not be an ideal scenario.

Size wise, just based on the raw measurements, Vesely has the ability to play PF. I don't see him as being undersized although certainly he doesn't have the strength or bulk to excel there just yet.

The two biggest problems for me with Vesely at the 4 are the rebounding concerns and his hands. Honestly, I'm far more concerned by his hands than anything else. While Vesely is a unique and physically talented player with excellent athleticism, the hands is what makes me say he's closer to Kwame than Blake or Amare. He might have the same desire and willingness to dunk on any and everyone but he doesn't have the pair of mitts Amare has. And that makes a huge difference. I saw post up potential in the videos albeit against smaller SFs mostly and the ability to catch a pass in the post is somewhat in question. The Wizards I'm sure are excited about the fastbreak potential of Wall to Vesely but I wonder if Vesely doesn't drop or bobble a decent percentage of those alleyoop attempts in the future.

I also wonder if his hands is effecting his touch on his jumper. He also gets a decent amount of balls smacked out his hand with relative ease.

Overall I think the potential for disappointment with this pick is pretty high. Even if he's not an outright bust, I don't see a guy that's worthy of a high lottery pick. I said it very early in the draft process but Vesely is like a high rent version of Darvin Ham. Taller, probably more attractive to the fan base (lets face it, the Verizon center will love the combination of his complexion and his dunking ability), just as athletic and plays with a ton of energy. Best case scenario, I could see him being a deluxe version of Jared Jeffries. Someone that's just good enough and enticing enough to be overpaid by Isiah Thomas one day.

I would have certainly have passed on Vesely. Knowing me, I probably would have passed on Biyombo too (even more questions about him - especially the age thing). To me the absolute safest pick in the draft at that point was Kemba Walker. He's the Jason Terry of this year's draft. He showed at least in my opinion that he's very capable of not only running the team but playing off the ball as well. And this past year, he spent a great deal of team off the ball, coming of screens as the focal point of UConn's offense.

[TGW]

^^^I agree with this scouting report, DN2U. I have all the same concerns: hands and rebounding. And those issues might work hand in hand.

I don't think he'll ever be a great shooter, ballhandler, or rebounder. He might peak at 12 points, 6 rebounds, and 1 blk a game, while being an adequate defender. I don't think he'll ever make an all-star team or even be a starter on a good team. I have the same doubts you do. I probably wouldn't have picked Walker at #6, but he was sure as hell a safer pick than Vesely.

[NbdyBeatsTheWiz]

I keep thinking Darius Miles (hopefully minus the career ending injury). That could be way off base, but 12/6/1blk would fall in line with that.

SC highlights, a little flash, and hey maybe if we get good fast like the Clips did he and John Wall can be in a Nike commercial like Miles and Q were. But I don't see any AllStar games in his future.

[Nivek]

Like dat, I spent some time watching Vesely video. He reminded me more than a little of Jared Jeffries -- more athletic, but still.

Wiz need to rehire Dave Hopla and get him working with Vesely. And Wall. And...well, everyone on the roster.

[nate33]

Good post Dat2u. I hope you're off base here but you tend to be right more often than wrong. Any chance that Vesely can pan out to be another Josh Smith?

[TGW]

Like dat, I spent some time watching Vesely video. He reminded me more than a little of Jared Jeffries -- more athletic, but still.

Wiz need to rehire Dave Hopla and get him working with Vesely. And Wall. And...well, everyone on the roster.

You would think that Ernie, with his job on the line, would attach himself to a better player than Jared Jeffries Jr.

At this point, I'm ready for a change of direction. Too many "potential" picks being made -- not enough substance picks. Marcus Morris and Kenneth Faried are both proven players who are ready to contribute now. We picked a player that's probably going to peak at average.

[theboomking]

I agree with you Dat. I still think the right move was to trade up. I think Vesely and Singleton will be great for the culture change, but we needed some better talent.

[Nivek]

Like dat, I spent some time watching Vesely video. He reminded me more than a little of Jared Jeffries -- more athletic, but still.

Wiz need to rehire Dave Hopla and get him working with Vesely. And Wall. And...well, everyone on the roster.

You would think that Ernie, with his job on the line, would attach himself to a better player than Jared Jeffries Jr.

I'm not trying to equate them in terms of ability. Vesely could well end up being a lot better than Jeffries. Just stylistically, that's who I thought of while watching video of him playing.

At this point, I'm ready for a change of direction. Too many "potential" picks being made -- not enough substance picks. Marcus Morris and Kenneth Faried are both proven players who are ready to contribute now.

This is a good point. As I'm working through a project looking at 4-year production by draft position (because that's been the length of rookie contracts; 3 years plus the option) I've been struck by how little players actually improve once they're in the NBA. I'm not finished with the project yet, and I haven't done a comprehensive look at this, but I've been struck by how often a player's PER after 4 seasons is about the same (within 1-2 points) as their career PER. Guys often get picked for their potential, but from my preliminary and ongoing project, it seems like that "potential" isn't realized very often.

We picked a player that's probably going to peak at average.

If the Wiz are lucky. 6th picks in the lottery era aren't very good. In the top 10, the 1st pick is worth about 25% more production through 4 years than picks 2-5, which produce at about the same level. There's a pretty big drop to the 6th pick, though. Since 1985, only 26% of 6th picks have had a 4-year PER of 15.0 (which is average) or higher. Compare to 87% for #1, more than 50% for #5 and 48% for the 7th pick. In fact, the 6th pick has the worst percentage of players achieving an average 4-year PER in the top 10.

[Black Eyed Sooz]

Like dat, I spent some time watching Vesely video. He reminded me more than a little of Jared Jeffries -- more athletic, but still.

Wiz need to rehire Dave Hopla and get him working with Vesely. And Wall. And...well, everyone on the roster.

Nivek, do you think the Wizards are really as high on Vesely as they seem to be? If you take them at face value, just about everyone including Ted, Ernie, Flip, down to the individual scouts, are just unbelievably psyched about the guy, despite some very glaring question marks.

I am a little less worried about his hands and his shooting than some people here, but am more worried about his lack of rebounding and physical strength right now. The only way he is 240 is if he and his girl are both on the scale making out or something.

I am also in the "should've traded up" camp. Leonsis in one of Steinberg's post seemed to be saying that #6, 18, and 34 might have gotten us to jump "a couple" slots in the draft- which would've put us in line to get Valanciunas- who is looking very very good in FIBA U-19 play- he just dropped 30 and 15 against Patric Young and the US. I haven't watched them all, but the Raps realgm board has pretty much that whole game youtubed.

Not to say that Vesely and Singleton are going to be busts, but they are going to have to be very, very good to justify missing an opportunity to get Kanter and/or Valanciunas- those guys are going to be studs.

[Severn Hoos]

I agree with you Dat. I still think the right move was to trade up. I think Vesely and Singleton will be great for the culture change, but we needed some better talent.

Don't disagree with the need for more talent, but we can't pretend it would be as easy as Vesely & Singleton for Kanter. Based on the best reports I've seen, our scenarios may have been more like:

Vesely & Singleton for the #4 pick (TThompson or Valanciunas).

Vesely, Singleton, and next year's 1st rounder for Kanter.

Vesely, McGee, and next year's 1st rounder for Williams (or something along those lines).

I don't think I do either of those trades, particularly given that we got Singleton in the end. I'm inclined to think Singleton will end up being more valuable than either Thompson or "the other JV", and I don't think I'd give up Singleton plus the chance that Vesely could become something special to find out.

Kanter was worth trading up for, and I'd have done it for both (all 3) of this year's picks, plus maybe Seraphin. But including next year's pick is too big a risk. Next year's draft will be much, much better than this year's if the age limit stays where it is, and will still be better even if it's only Sophomores & up (Sullinger, Barnes, Jones, Jones, etc.)

So in theory I agree with the sentiment that the Wiz would have been better if they could have acquired a top tier talent. Unfortunately that ship sailed on May 17, once we ended up at 6, it pretty much shut out any chance to get one of the top targets.

[TGW]

Jeez, Nivek....you really made me feel alot better about Vesely, LOL.

[Nivek]

Black Eyed Sooz -- Knowing some of the guys over there a little, I doubt they're as high on Vesely as they've been saying to reporters. But, I don't see any reason for them to give their true assessment publicly. As long as they're realistic internally, I'm happy.

[DCZards]

Don't disagree with the need for more talent, but we can't pretend it would be as easy as Vesely & Singleton for Kanter. Based on the best reports I've seen, our scenarios may have been more like:

Vesely & Singleton for the #4 pick (TThompson or Valanciunas).

Vesely, Singleton, and next year's 1st rounder for Kanter.

Vesely, McGee, and next year's 1st rounder for Williams (or something along those lines).

I don't think I do either of those trades, particularly given that we got Singleton in the end. But including next year's pick is too big a risk.

Agreed. There's a lot of posters saying "the Wizards should have traded up." But, from what I can tell, the Zards would have had to give up far too much to move up to draft player who might turn out to be decent but nothing special. It's not like they were moving up to draft a LeBron or Shaq or some other sure bet all-star and hall of famer.

As for Vesely, after watching some of the video of him, you can put me squarely in the camp of those worried about his "hands" and his shooting. However, I do like his energy, athleticism and agressiveness.

[Black Eyed Sooz]

Black Eyed Sooz -- Knowing some of the guys over there a little, I doubt they're as high on Vesely as they've been saying to reporters. But, I don't see any reason for them to give their true assessment publicly. As long as they're realistic internally, I'm happy.

Wait- so there's a chance Vesely might NOT turn out to be Dr. J with Tom Chambers' shooting touch and KG's length and intensity?

Oh well... as long as he's a 6-11 Blake Griffin or better, I'll be happy.

[pcbothwel]

Jan is 230 lbs, not 240. He said so himself when he did interviews in Italy. That being said, he will easily get up to 240-245 and become a PF. I think his shot can become good enough to keep defenders from playing too far off, but not enough to become a real weapon. I dont like his rebounding numbers but I really believe he will be a better rebounding in the NBA.

While I agree with the Jared Jeffries comps(same frame, good defender, poor iso player, bad touch/poor FT shooter) we should also acknowledge the main differences. Jared Jefferies was not near as athletic, competitive, or physical as Vesely. Jan is known to be a great finisher whereas Jared was an awful finisher with contact.

[Dat2U]

Good post Dat2u. I hope you're off base here but you tend to be right more often than wrong. Any chance that Vesely can pan out to be another Josh Smith?

If I thought Vesely had good hands I'd say anything is possible. But I'm pretty certain he doesn't so that's an incredibly optimistic projection for him.

Regarding Vesely ever averaging 12 ppg a game. I gotta see it to believe it. His offense needs to come a long way to ever average double digits in the NBA. The guy has no discernible offensive skill other than the ability to finish strong at the rim. He does seem to possess a solid b-ball IQ and understands spacing very well but the ability to put the ball in the basket (remember he's a terrible FT shooter as well) is something that's lacking at this stage.

On the positive front, his length & energy can be quite effective on the defensive end. That's going to be his calling card from day one and that might get him minutes in spite of his offensive shortcomings. Right now he's probably going to be a better perimeter defender than a post defender considering the lack of physical strength. He might not be quick enough to keep up with the better wing players in the league but like JJ, he can be enough of a pest to disrupt someone's rhythm.

Another thing to be positive about, although were making comparisons to Jared Jeffries, Vesely is a much better athlete in my opinion. And he doesn't appear to be a tissue paper soft guy by any means. So maybe a Jared Jeffries type on steroids isn't the worst thing in the world. The key will be his confidence. Jeffries totally lost all confidence offensively once he got a taste of failure on the NBA level. Kwame had his confidence beaten out of him through MJ/Collins and on the court failure. What will happen with Vesely?

[FAH1223]

Singleton will obviously be the better player than Vessley. The fact this draft outright sucks doesn't make me feel too bad about the potential and sure likely-hood that Vessley is a bust.

[closg00]

Singleton will obviously be the better player than Vessley. The fact this draft outright sucks doesn't make me feel too bad about the potential and sure likely-hood that Vessley is a bust.

I wouldn't go that far, this would be a cop-out for us not taking Walker, Morris, or trading down. Remember Ernie Grunfeld's infamous words regarding the 2009 draft: " We didn't feel that anyone could help us" to paraphrase. I would wager that this draft-class's 1st-rounders will produce more productive players than last-years.