Our Projected Depth Chart

[Bickerstaff]

you think he'd give Keveen the short end of the stick if he outplays Okafor?

$14 million bench player. Not happening. But Kev will be OK. Hell get his 25 minutes a game. Depth is a good thing, Nene and Okafor probably will play 32 minutes each, max.

I'm not too worried about contracts influencing minutes. Wittman has demonstrated that he runs a meritocracy. He started Singleton ahead of Lewis. He banished Blatche from the building.

If Seraphin outplays Okafor, I think he'll be fine starting Seraphin. Also, it's not like Okafor was a long term free agency signing. He's not part of the long term plan. He's a stopgap player.

I agree with this. I think the Wizards org. knows as well as anyone on this board that Okafor is overpaid. I doubt they feel obligated to justify his salary, since they didn't give in to him in the first place. I also figure if he's biased towards anyone, Wittman would be biased in favor of Kevin, since he was the one guy who really developed under Wittman's regime. (I do think Okafor will be the starter, though, at least on day 1.)

[KennyGreen]

Hope Mason, Cartier and J. Singleton are re-signed to fill the 12, 13, 14 slots on roster (w/ Dray as 15 in an Eddy Curry-esqe role before ultimately amnestied)...Like how those guys busted their asses at end of last year...Good attitudes to have around to continue to change the culture...plus you get some much needed shooting from Mason and Cartier and grit/rebounding/toughness from JSingleton (a poor mans JYD)...

[Bickerstaff]

What if Blatche just comes in and balls the **** out on everyone? Not for an entire season but for a few games? Enough to pull the old bait/switch on the more easily swayed?

I would think it would take a lot more than a few games. Blatche's problem has never been the ability to explode for a few games. I think the best thing Blatche could do is patiently and humbly (and most of all efficiently) contribute as a rotation player. He has to prove he doesn't have negative value before he starts trying to prove he's a stud.

[nate33]

Hope Mason, Cartier and J. Singleton are re-signed to fill the 12, 13, 14 slots on roster (w/ Dray as 15 in an Eddy Curry-esqe role before ultimately amnestied)...Like how those guys busted their asses at end of last year...Good attitudes to have around to continue to change the culture...plus you get some much needed shooting from Mason and Cartier and grit/rebounding/toughness from JSingleton (a poor mans JYD)...

I honestly don't see any reason for Singleton to stick around here to be the 6th big man. He's too good for that. This is one of the reasons I want Okafor traded. $14M a year for Okafor is bad enough. But $13M a year for the upgrade from Singleton to Okafor is unconscionable.

I think an Okafor trade could get us a quality wing player, and then we can replace Okafor with Singleton without having much dropoff.

[Bickerstaff]

Hope Mason, Cartier and J. Singleton are re-signed to fill the 12, 13, 14 slots on roster (w/ Dray as 15 in an Eddy Curry-esqe role before ultimately amnestied)...Like how those guys busted their asses at end of last year...Good attitudes to have around to continue to change the culture...plus you get some much needed shooting from Mason and Cartier and grit/rebounding/toughness from JSingleton (a poor mans JYD)...

I honestly don't see any reason for Singleton to stick around here to be the 6th big man. He's too good for that. This is one of the reasons I want Okafor traded. $14M a year for Okafor is bad enough. But $13M a year for the upgrade from Singleton to Okafor is unconscionable.

I think an Okafor trade could get us a quality wing player, and then we can replace Okafor with Singleton without having much dropoff.

I like Singleton, but he'll be 31 next month and Okafor, in 27 games last year, played more minutes than Singleton's played in all but 2 of his seasons--and Singleton's missed way, way, way more games than Okafor (though I can't figure out his injury history, so maybe he was just deep on the bench and didn't get called much). Anyway, I do like him, and I have no attachment to Okafor (though they DO need rebounding), but... actually, I don't really see Okafor being the one blocking him. I think Booker and Vesely (and Blatche???) are blocking him. But I think I'm saying that because I think I'm sold on Nene at power forward and, salary aside, Okafor seems like a good guy to platoon with Seraphin who can give Nene the freedom to focus on scoring, which I think he's going to need to do a lot of for this team to be any good.

If they can pull off a trade that will open a spot for Singleton, then great, but at this point he seems like a luxury, and in my opinion a little too unaccomplished to take a spot that would be better served on a shooter and/or PG.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I think we at least start the season with the vets in the front court, and I hope Beal comes out of training camp with the starting job. Okafor, Nene, Ariza, Beal, Wall should be a solid starting 5, and should be at least consistently good on the defensive end. Crawford can thrive as a microwave type off the bench.

Ideally, I would like to add a vet PG to the bench. The best fit looking at who's available could be the return of Kirk Hinrich.

I would also include the amnesty of Blatche to be a priority this offseason. The ideal replacement to Blatche on the roster would be James Singleton.

The last 2 roster spots I would then use on Mason and Evans to add perimeter shooting off the bench. I like Mo in place of Cartier, I see him as more of a leader and locker room necessity. He has a future in coaching, and when he has gotten the chance to play since joining the Wizards he has performed at a high level. Mo and Roger at the end of the bench provide ideal vets, professionals who know and accept their roles, do everything they can to help the young players. And both are always prepared to come in the game and hit a needed shot, and are capable to give the team a boost when called upon.

Okafor, Seraphin, Nene, Vesely, Booker, J.Singleton, C.Singleton, Ariza, Evans, Beal, Mason, Crawford, Hinrich, Mack, Wall.

Depending on match-ups any assortment of Seraphin, Vesely, Booker, C.Singleton, J.Singleton would bring some hustle & muscle into the front court. Crawford, Mason, Evans, Mack, Hinrich provide solid depth to the perimeter. If these moves are made, I actually like the makup of this 15 man roster, the mix of youth and vets, and the depth.

Expecting the worst though, I won't be surprised to see Blatche come back, and the team to carry only 14 players citing the financial benefits and roster flexibility that empty roster spot would provide.

[hands11]

What if Blatche just comes in and balls the **** out on everyone? Not for an entire season but for a few games? Enough to pull the old bait/switch on the more easily swayed?

I would think it would take a lot more than a few games. Blatche's problem has never been the ability to explode for a few games. I think the best thing Blatche could do is patiently and humbly (and most of all efficiently) contribute as a rotation player. He has to prove he doesn't have negative value before he starts trying to prove he's a stud.

That is a good part of the foundation of my view that leads me to believe he will be on the team at least up until the trade deadline and more likely the entire season. He will not likely get amnestied this year because the goal will be to maximize his value so that if/when he is amnestied, he will cost Ted as little as possible. It's going to take the better part of this year it not all of it and next offseason to raise his value.

All they have to do it get him back to minimum normal value for a player of his age height and talent. That would be a 2 year deal at 5M each. If they can do that, Ted will only be out 6.5M over two years. That is something he should be able to stomach easier then 20M over 3 years. That is if they can't find a way to trade him. Keeping him on the roster at 7M this year if worth the investment in time and money for those reasons.

[hands11]

Hope Mason, Cartier and J. Singleton are re-signed to fill the 12, 13, 14 slots on roster (w/ Dray as 15 in an Eddy Curry-esqe role before ultimately amnestied)...Like how those guys busted their asses at end of last year...Good attitudes to have around to continue to change the culture...plus you get some much needed shooting from Mason and Cartier and grit/rebounding/toughness from JSingleton (a poor mans JYD)...

I honestly don't see any reason for Singleton to stick around here to be the 6th big man. He's too good for that. This is one of the reasons I want Okafor traded. $14M a year for Okafor is bad enough. But $13M a year for the upgrade from Singleton to Okafor is unconscionable.

I think an Okafor trade could get us a quality wing player, and then we can replace Okafor with Singleton without having much dropoff.

I like Singleton, but he'll be 31 next month and Okafor, in 27 games last year, played more minutes than Singleton's played in all but 2 of his seasons--and Singleton's missed way, way, way more games than Okafor (though I can't figure out his injury history, so maybe he was just deep on the bench and didn't get called much). Anyway, I do like him, and I have no attachment to Okafor (though they DO need rebounding), but... actually, I don't really see Okafor being the one blocking him. I think Booker and Vesely (and Blatche???) are blocking him. But I think I'm saying that because I think I'm sold on Nene at power forward and, salary aside, Okafor seems like a good guy to platoon with Seraphin who can give Nene the freedom to focus on scoring, which I think he's going to need to do a lot of for this team to be any good.

If they can pull off a trade that will open a spot for Singleton, then great, but at this point he seems like a luxury, and in my opinion a little too unaccomplished to take a spot that would be better served on a shooter and/or PG.

I think you nailed it. And to that list I would add Martin if they add him. Nene, Ves and Booker have PF covered. TA and CS are the first two SFs. As it is Booker is going to have to learn to be effective at SF also so he can get more minutes. Thats three players they can play are SF. If they add Martin who is a SG/SF, that is four. James Singleton challenge making the roster is there. Not with Okafor. I would love to have James on the team but it seems like a tough fit unless he is ok being inactive waiting for an injury to happen or for the roster to gel.

So Martin or Singleton or even Mo or Jeffers ? If he comes back it will be to add a 3rd SF option.

[doclinkin]

Illustrating a point made in the Optimism Thread and the Okafor trade thread:

Tar was heated, feathers plucked, pitchforks and torches were raised behind the idea that on offense Okafor duplicates much of what we already have in Nene and Ksera. Truth is the numbers tend to bear out the observation:

Emeka Okafor 2011 At rim: 69.8 Short: 34.9 Mid: 34.6 Long 2: 52.0
Emeka Okafor 2012 At rim: 75.4 Short: 52.1 Mid: 36.7 Long 2: 46.0

Kevin Seraphin 2012 At rim: 67.4% Short: 46.3% Mid: 40.3% Long 2: 46.0%

Nene Hilario 2011 At rim: 71.5 Short: 37.8 MId: 29.6 Long 2: 47.0
Nene Hilario 2012 At rim: 64.8 Short: 26.7 Mid: 39.1 Long 2: 31.0

Each is a bear to stop when given the ball deep in the paint. None has advanced moves to beat an opponent in the short to midrange game. But left wide open with the ball, each has shown decent skill to drop it in the bucket.

Thing is, neither Nene nor Okafor has really worked with another powerful and capable frontcourt beast. Each was usually the bigger man on the court for their team (both being paired with undersized PFs like David West, Gerald Wallace for Okafor; Birdman, KMart and Faried for Nene) with the arguable exception of (perimeter oriented face-up scarecrow) Marcus Camby.

So the question is: will they get in each other's way? or could there be synergy between them. In Answer I'd submit Nene's showing with the Wiz next to Seraphin. There are no break-out numbers by team for the shot locations, but we do have some suggestive efficiency numbers with a small sample size:

Nene Hilario 2011-12 DEN PER 16.7 TS% .554 eFG% .509
Nene Hilario 2011-12 WAS PER 24.2 TS% .624 eFG% .607

Here's what we're looking at: each of these players is a load to handle in the paint, commanding attention, occasionally doubleteams. Each is big strong and mobile, athletic. Each sets a resounding pick or screen. In designing a half court offense can you take advantage of these skills for solid efficiency.

Coach Witt runs some of the same stuff that Flip ran (motion sets with multiple picks to free a player) but one thing he did do was go Big and trust Nene to make a shot. Nene responded with the best result of his career, highest PER, 2nd highest Win share, upticks in almost every category. And with Nene as a focal point, dark horse Big Kevin Seraphin responded at times with truly impressive efficiency. Both benefited from the presence of the other.

Way I see it is this. John Wall will surely have the ball in his hands. A marksman like Brad Beal will likely be sent on Rip and Reggie runs on crossing patterns past picks and screens set by the Bigs in the paint. Pick and roll attacks may be emphasized for John Wall.

So the role of the Bigs will be as concrete jersey barriers to ruin whomever is trying to chase the hyperspeed Wall or the savvy and tough Beal; and if the defense decides to overcommit to trap them then the Bigs job will be to avalanche towards the basket to power it home. Or, if the bigs drop off the shade the lane, then the Bigs, left alone, need only to be able to hit a wide open shot. So: what shots do they need? Rim and Long 2. Both categories at which all three have shown decent efficiency.

We have the makings of a pretty nasty and tough frontcourt. Painful to play against. And deep so as to never tire. If we need more energy we can drop in uptempo and smart players like Booker and Vesely, each of whom also sets a painful pick, playing defense on the opposite end of the court by banging and thumping defenders.

In Okafor we add a dedicated and energetic defensive rebounder, next to Nene who improves his teammates defensive board work by sealing his man and boxing out well. Ksera has the same instinct. And with similar players we ad not redundancy but depth, fresh legs, extra fouls, and the energy to maintain an uptempo team end to end offense and defense. The secret strength of any fast break team is the activity level of the bigs. It's looking like we've got a team that can actually use its depth in the frontcourt as a reliable weapon. Should be as fun to watch as it will be a literal pain to play against.

[veji1]

Illustrating a point made in the Optimism Thread and the Okafor trade thread:

Tar was heated, feathers plucked, pitchforks and torches were raised behind the idea that on offense Okafor duplicates much of what we already have in Nene and Ksera. Truth is the numbers tend to bear out the observation:

Emeka Okafor 2011 At rim: 69.8 Short: 34.9 Mid: 34.6 Long 2: 52.0
Emeka Okafor 2012 At rim: 75.4 Short: 52.1 Mid: 36.7 Long 2: 46.0

Kevin Seraphin 2012 At rim: 67.4% Short: 46.3% Mid: 40.3% Long 2: 46.0%

Nene Hilario 2011 At rim: 71.5 Short: 37.8 MId: 29.6 Long 2: 47.0
Nene Hilario 2012 At rim: 64.8 Short: 26.7 Mid: 39.1 Long 2: 31.0

Each is a bear to stop when given the ball deep in the paint. None has advanced moves to beat an opponent in the short to midrange game. But left wide open with the ball, each has shown decent skill to drop it in the bucket.

Thing is, neither Nene nor Okafor has really worked with another powerful and capable frontcourt beast. Each was usually the bigger man on the court for their team (both being paired with undersized PFs like David West, Gerald Wallace for Okafor; Birdman, KMart and Faried for Nene) with the arguable exception of (perimeter oriented face-up scarecrow) Marcus Camby.

So the question is: will they get in each other's way? or could there be synergy between them. In Answer I'd submit Nene's showing with the Wiz next to Seraphin. There are no break-out numbers by team for the shot locations, but we do have some suggestive efficiency numbers with a small sample size:

Nene Hilario 2011-12 DEN PER 16.7 TS% .554 eFG% .509
Nene Hilario 2011-12 WAS PER 24.2 TS% .624 eFG% .607

Here's what we're looking at: each of these players is a load to handle in the paint, commanding attention, occasionally doubleteams. Each is big strong and mobile, athletic. Each sets a resounding pick or screen. In designing a half court offense can you take advantage of these skills for solid efficiency.

Coach Witt runs some of the same stuff that Flip ran (motion sets with multiple picks to free a player) but one thing he did do was go Big and trust Nene to make a shot. Nene responded with the best result of his career, highest PER, 2nd highest Win share, upticks in almost every category. And with Nene as a focal point, dark horse Big Kevin Seraphin responded at times with truly impressive efficiency. Both benefited from the presence of the other.

Way I see it is this. John Wall will surely have the ball in his hands. A marksman like Brad Beal will likely be sent on Rip and Reggie runs on crossing patterns past picks and screens set by the Bigs in the paint. Pick and roll attacks may be emphasized for John Wall.

So the role of the Bigs will be as concrete jersey barriers to ruin whomever is trying to chase the hyperspeed Wall or the savvy and tough Beal; and if the defense decides to overcommit to trap them then the Bigs job will be to avalanche towards the basket to power it home. Or, if the bigs drop off the shade the lane, then the Bigs, left alone, need only to be able to hit a wide open shot. So: what shots do they need? Rim and Long 2. Both categories at which all three have shown decent efficiency.

We have the makings of a pretty nasty and tough frontcourt. Painful to play against. And deep so as to never tire. If we need more energy we can drop in uptempo and smart players like Booker and Vesely, each of whom also sets a painful pick, playing defense on the opposite end of the court by banging and thumping defenders.

In Okafor we add a dedicated and energetic defensive rebounder, next to Nene who improves his teammates defensive board work by sealing his man and boxing out well. Ksera has the same instinct. And with similar players we ad not redundancy but depth, fresh legs, extra fouls, and the energy to maintain an uptempo team end to end offense and defense. The secret strength of any fast break team is the activity level of the bigs. It's looking like we've got a team that can actually use its depth in the frontcourt as a reliable weapon. Should be as fun to watch as it will be a literal pain to play against.

That's exactly the way I see it. Some have complained that the trade meant getting redundant players, while for me it actually meant insisting on some characteristics so that the defensive/fastbreak/inside-out identity of the team can be insisted on for the whole 48 minutes.

[nate33]

Illustrating a point made in the Optimism Thread and the Okafor trade thread:

Tar was heated, feathers plucked, pitchforks and torches were raised behind the idea that on offense Okafor duplicates much of what we already have in Nene and Ksera. Truth is the numbers tend to bear out the observation:

Emeka Okafor 2011 At rim: 69.8 Short: 34.9 Mid: 34.6 Long 2: 52.0
Emeka Okafor 2012 At rim: 75.4 Short: 52.1 Mid: 36.7 Long 2: 46.0

Kevin Seraphin 2012 At rim: 67.4% Short: 46.3% Mid: 40.3% Long 2: 46.0%

Nene Hilario 2011 At rim: 71.5 Short: 37.8 MId: 29.6 Long 2: 47.0
Nene Hilario 2012 At rim: 64.8 Short: 26.7 Mid: 39.1 Long 2: 31.0

Each is a bear to stop when given the ball deep in the paint. None has advanced moves to beat an opponent in the short to midrange game. But left wide open with the ball, each has shown decent skill to drop it in the bucket.

Thing is, neither Nene nor Okafor has really worked with another powerful and capable frontcourt beast. Each was usually the bigger man on the court for their team (both being paired with undersized PFs like David West, Gerald Wallace for Okafor; Birdman, KMart and Faried for Nene) with the arguable exception of (perimeter oriented face-up scarecrow) Marcus Camby.

So the question is: will they get in each other's way? or could there be synergy between them. In Answer I'd submit Nene's showing with the Wiz next to Seraphin. There are no break-out numbers by team for the shot locations, but we do have some suggestive efficiency numbers with a small sample size:

Nene Hilario 2011-12 DEN PER 16.7 TS% .554 eFG% .509
Nene Hilario 2011-12 WAS PER 24.2 TS% .624 eFG% .607

Here's what we're looking at: each of these players is a load to handle in the paint, commanding attention, occasionally doubleteams. Each is big strong and mobile, athletic. Each sets a resounding pick or screen. In designing a half court offense can you take advantage of these skills for solid efficiency.

Coach Witt runs some of the same stuff that Flip ran (motion sets with multiple picks to free a player) but one thing he did do was go Big and trust Nene to make a shot. Nene responded with the best result of his career, highest PER, 2nd highest Win share, upticks in almost every category. And with Nene as a focal point, dark horse Big Kevin Seraphin responded at times with truly impressive efficiency. Both benefited from the presence of the other.

Way I see it is this. John Wall will surely have the ball in his hands. A marksman like Brad Beal will likely be sent on Rip and Reggie runs on crossing patterns past picks and screens set by the Bigs in the paint. Pick and roll attacks may be emphasized for John Wall.

So the role of the Bigs will be as concrete jersey barriers to ruin whomever is trying to chase the hyperspeed Wall or the savvy and tough Beal; and if the defense decides to overcommit to trap them then the Bigs job will be to avalanche towards the basket to power it home. Or, if the bigs drop off the shade the lane, then the Bigs, left alone, need only to be able to hit a wide open shot. So: what shots do they need? Rim and Long 2. Both categories at which all three have shown decent efficiency.

We have the makings of a pretty nasty and tough frontcourt. Painful to play against. And deep so as to never tire. If we need more energy we can drop in uptempo and smart players like Booker and Vesely, each of whom also sets a painful pick, playing defense on the opposite end of the court by banging and thumping defenders.

In Okafor we add a dedicated and energetic defensive rebounder, next to Nene who improves his teammates defensive board work by sealing his man and boxing out well. Ksera has the same instinct. And with similar players we ad not redundancy but depth, fresh legs, extra fouls, and the energy to maintain an uptempo team end to end offense and defense. The secret strength of any fast break team is the activity level of the bigs. It's looking like we've got a team that can actually use its depth in the frontcourt as a reliable weapon. Should be as fun to watch as it will be a literal pain to play against.

That's nice and all. Nobody is saying that Okafor makes us worse. But that still doesn't change the fact that Okafor is redundant. 5 of our best 7 players play either PF or C. That's not ideal and no amount of analysis will change that fact. If Okafor was replaced with a slightly above-average veteran SF (let's say somebody like a healthy Mike Miller, or Nicolas Batum, or Shawn Marion, for argument's sake), we would be a better ball club.

My reservations about that trade isn't that we haven't added talent, it's just that the pieces don't fit together as they should. I'm over it now so I don't want to beat a dead horse. I do think Okafor is a solid player and I'm optimistic that Wittman can make it work out.

[doclinkin]

That's nice and all. Nobody is saying that Okafor makes us worse. But that still doesn't change the fact that Okafor is redundant. 5 of our best 7 players play either PF or C. That's not ideal and no amount of analysis will change that fact. If Okafor was replaced with a slightly above-average veteran SF [...] we would be a better ball club.

My reservations about that trade isn't that we haven't added talent, it's just that the pieces don't fit together as they should. I'm over it now so I don't want to beat a dead horse. I do think Okafor is a solid player and I'm optimistic that Wittman can make it work out.

How much better? Championship better? Finals better?

To me this may be a crazy like a fox situation. It has occurred to me for a while that one of the best ways to upgrade a team over the long term is to add depth before breadth. The impact on your wins and losses may not immediately be as good as the impact on your morale, but since one of the best ways to build a team for the long haul is to land young talent in the draft you don't necessarily want to accelerate towards mediocrity. So instead you can build a championship bench and role players first, while still adding talent through high or near-lotto draft picks, then when all other pieces are in place, make a trade or other acquisition to plug in the one or two pieces that will take you over the top. But it's tough to recruit stars from other teams. You need surplus talent for trades, you need big money in decent contracts, or you need to luck out and land one via ping pong balls or solid scouting and smart draft picks.

Problem is you can't build with youth forever. You can land draft picks for a few years but if all you do is surround them with a losing culture you build nothing but discontent and bad attitudes. If instead you build your locker room and bench with hard working veterans and ferocious work ethic, it translates to practice court and weight room competition, etc. And ultimately to wins. Imagine the good it will do for our young bigs to see veterans like Okafor and Nene going at each other on court scrapping and hustling. More so, when this does translate to oncourt effect, then franchise talent like John Wall will buy in to the team: they are spending the money to get it done. If John Wall goes down (touch wood, cross fingers etc) then we can still pull a lotto pick, we're deep in role players shallow in stars.

Adding a supermediocre SF would improve the team a bit, no question. I don't see that it would be any better over the long haul than adding an arsenal of competitive good-outlook good effort Bigs who can lead from the frontcourt as well as the bench. Seems to me now we are getting much closer to that 'one player will make the difference' concept.

[closg00]

I would like to see us start the next season with as-much of the same lineup we had to finish-up last season. That was a group that was starting to gel. Incorporate the new guys slowly and experiment with different line-ups.

[hands11]

you think he'd give Keveen the short end of the stick if he outplays Okafor?

Outside of our SG position, its pretty clear who our starters are. Seraphin is not going to be starting. His best bet - one that's almost certainly to come to fruition is that he starts when (not if) either Nene or Okafor gets injured for a stretch. Meaning he should be starting for at least a month or two for the year.

Who starts doesn't really matter. Its who get minutes and when. How the team develops and above all, getting wins early.

I think we see a lot of 20-25min players with Wall the only one playing in the 30 plus range unless Beal just blows the door off things. As soon as he is ready, he will get 30 minutes. I just don't see that happening in the early stages of the season.

They will keep developing the younger players. As for what Randy said, I think it is true for every position outside of Wall and Nene. And since Nene is such a team player, I don't even thing he cares if he was starting or not. But he will.

What is more important is that they balance the line ups. I think the Wizards strength his year will be their depth. They don't have an overwhelming first line compared to the better teams, but they do have nice depth which is better then many of them. More like Indy was last year. And since it is the TEAM that plays better for the entire 48 minutes, I think they will win at a decent clip.

Since Beal will be a better more consistent long ball shooter then Crawford, Beal will work better with Wall and the first unit while Crawford would have a more open floor to run with the second unit where he can create and drive. Trevor A can drive/finsih while C Singleton doesn't do that as well. So mix them up.

If Crawford starts the year, Trevor A doesnt.

Wall, Crawford, C Singleton/James, Nene, Okafor
Mack, Beal/Mason, Trevor A, Ves, Kevin - hopefully they upgrade Mack or he has learned to shoot.

This way, Oak rebounds for Nene who scores and boxes out. Crawford drives while C Singleton/James shoot from outside. Second line, Ves rebounds and plays the glue to Kevins scoring in the post with Trevor A driving and Beal/Mason hitting from outside. Or you can play Booker instead of Ves or at SF.

You can move players around but that is how I would balance them. Hell, you could have Mason start with Wall in the first line up and put Trevor A with that group.

What I don't think you will see is Nene and Kevin starting and Ves and Okafor backing up. Those would be bad combos considering they need two lines that are balanced.

I think they will trying to come out of the gates winning so I wouldn't be surprised if they even started someone like Mason to establish the rotation that Beal can slide into. Beal may only see spot minutes to start the year. Every win counts when you are shooting for the playoffs. For Beal, it isn't how he starts the year, its how he ends it and what he does years 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and forward. And since he is such a smart well balanced kid, it won't effect him at all if he is getting minutes right away or not. He sees the big picture and he is only 19.

[hands11]

What if Blatche just comes in and balls the **** out on everyone? Not for an entire season but for a few games? Enough to pull the old bait/switch on the more easily swayed?

That would be ideal. But where to play him and when ? With Dray, they have to be sure he will produce when they finally roll him out there. If not, they missed the amnesty and trading him will only be harder.

I think it will take him running with the team in practice and finding an establish role before they can play him. He would have to adopt a game very similar to Nene's game. Catch, fake without dribbling, drive hard to the hoop or catch and shoot the 12 footer. No more crazy dribbling behind the back. First time he does that the boo birds will come out. And box out and rebound.

Keeping him will be a risk that could yield something. Or it could blow up in their face.

But, if they can rehab him in practice and then bring him out to rest Nene or Okafor eventually, he could be useful. And he is insurance against either going down.

Again, this teams strength is not with a ton of established players, it's with depth and young talent that has upside. Mostly with Wall and hopefully Beal.

[hands11]

Hope Mason, Cartier and J. Singleton are re-signed to fill the 12, 13, 14 slots on roster (w/ Dray as 15 in an Eddy Curry-esqe role before ultimately amnestied)...Like how those guys busted their asses at end of last year...Good attitudes to have around to continue to change the culture...plus you get some much needed shooting from Mason and Cartier and grit/rebounding/toughness from JSingleton (a poor mans JYD)...

I honestly don't see any reason for Singleton to stick around here to be the 6th big man. He's too good for that. This is one of the reasons I want Okafor traded. $14M a year for Okafor is bad enough. But $13M a year for the upgrade from Singleton to Okafor is unconscionable.

I think an Okafor trade could get us a quality wing player, and then we can replace Okafor with Singleton without having much dropoff.

Give it time. Besides, who are there other teams bidding James away from us ?

[hands11]

Illustrating a point made in the Optimism Thread and the Okafor trade thread:

Tar was heated, feathers plucked, pitchforks and torches were raised behind the idea that on offense Okafor duplicates much of what we already have in Nene and Ksera. Truth is the numbers tend to bear out the observation:

Emeka Okafor 2011 At rim: 69.8 Short: 34.9 Mid: 34.6 Long 2: 52.0
Emeka Okafor 2012 At rim: 75.4 Short: 52.1 Mid: 36.7 Long 2: 46.0

Kevin Seraphin 2012 At rim: 67.4% Short: 46.3% Mid: 40.3% Long 2: 46.0%

Nene Hilario 2011 At rim: 71.5 Short: 37.8 MId: 29.6 Long 2: 47.0
Nene Hilario 2012 At rim: 64.8 Short: 26.7 Mid: 39.1 Long 2: 31.0

Each is a bear to stop when given the ball deep in the paint. None has advanced moves to beat an opponent in the short to midrange game. But left wide open with the ball, each has shown decent skill to drop it in the bucket.

Thing is, neither Nene nor Okafor has really worked with another powerful and capable frontcourt beast. Each was usually the bigger man on the court for their team (both being paired with undersized PFs like David West, Gerald Wallace for Okafor; Birdman, KMart and Faried for Nene) with the arguable exception of (perimeter oriented face-up scarecrow) Marcus Camby.

So the question is: will they get in each other's way? or could there be synergy between them. In Answer I'd submit Nene's showing with the Wiz next to Seraphin. There are no break-out numbers by team for the shot locations, but we do have some suggestive efficiency numbers with a small sample size:

Nene Hilario 2011-12 DEN PER 16.7 TS% .554 eFG% .509
Nene Hilario 2011-12 WAS PER 24.2 TS% .624 eFG% .607

Here's what we're looking at: each of these players is a load to handle in the paint, commanding attention, occasionally doubleteams. Each is big strong and mobile, athletic. Each sets a resounding pick or screen. In designing a half court offense can you take advantage of these skills for solid efficiency.

Coach Witt runs some of the same stuff that Flip ran (motion sets with multiple picks to free a player) but one thing he did do was go Big and trust Nene to make a shot. Nene responded with the best result of his career, highest PER, 2nd highest Win share, upticks in almost every category. And with Nene as a focal point, dark horse Big Kevin Seraphin responded at times with truly impressive efficiency. Both benefited from the presence of the other.

Way I see it is this. John Wall will surely have the ball in his hands. A marksman like Brad Beal will likely be sent on Rip and Reggie runs on crossing patterns past picks and screens set by the Bigs in the paint. Pick and roll attacks may be emphasized for John Wall.

So the role of the Bigs will be as concrete jersey barriers to ruin whomever is trying to chase the hyperspeed Wall or the savvy and tough Beal; and if the defense decides to overcommit to trap them then the Bigs job will be to avalanche towards the basket to power it home. Or, if the bigs drop off the shade the lane, then the Bigs, left alone, need only to be able to hit a wide open shot. So: what shots do they need? Rim and Long 2. Both categories at which all three have shown decent efficiency.

We have the makings of a pretty nasty and tough frontcourt. Painful to play against. And deep so as to never tire. If we need more energy we can drop in uptempo and smart players like Booker and Vesely, each of whom also sets a painful pick, playing defense on the opposite end of the court by banging and thumping defenders.

In Okafor we add a dedicated and energetic defensive rebounder, next to Nene who improves his teammates defensive board work by sealing his man and boxing out well. Ksera has the same instinct. And with similar players we ad not redundancy but depth, fresh legs, extra fouls, and the energy to maintain an uptempo team end to end offense and defense. The secret strength of any fast break team is the activity level of the bigs. It's looking like we've got a team that can actually use its depth in the frontcourt as a reliable weapon. Should be as fun to watch as it will be a literal pain to play against.

That is a perfect narrative to go along with the line ups I posted. Sweet read. Well done Doc.

[hands11]

Illustrating a point made in the Optimism Thread and the Okafor trade thread:

Tar was heated, feathers plucked, pitchforks and torches were raised behind the idea that on offense Okafor duplicates much of what we already have in Nene and Ksera. Truth is the numbers tend to bear out the observation:

Emeka Okafor 2011 At rim: 69.8 Short: 34.9 Mid: 34.6 Long 2: 52.0
Emeka Okafor 2012 At rim: 75.4 Short: 52.1 Mid: 36.7 Long 2: 46.0

Kevin Seraphin 2012 At rim: 67.4% Short: 46.3% Mid: 40.3% Long 2: 46.0%

Nene Hilario 2011 At rim: 71.5 Short: 37.8 MId: 29.6 Long 2: 47.0
Nene Hilario 2012 At rim: 64.8 Short: 26.7 Mid: 39.1 Long 2: 31.0

Each is a bear to stop when given the ball deep in the paint. None has advanced moves to beat an opponent in the short to midrange game. But left wide open with the ball, each has shown decent skill to drop it in the bucket.

Thing is, neither Nene nor Okafor has really worked with another powerful and capable frontcourt beast. Each was usually the bigger man on the court for their team (both being paired with undersized PFs like David West, Gerald Wallace for Okafor; Birdman, KMart and Faried for Nene) with the arguable exception of (perimeter oriented face-up scarecrow) Marcus Camby.

So the question is: will they get in each other's way? or could there be synergy between them. In Answer I'd submit Nene's showing with the Wiz next to Seraphin. There are no break-out numbers by team for the shot locations, but we do have some suggestive efficiency numbers with a small sample size:

Nene Hilario 2011-12 DEN PER 16.7 TS% .554 eFG% .509
Nene Hilario 2011-12 WAS PER 24.2 TS% .624 eFG% .607

Here's what we're looking at: each of these players is a load to handle in the paint, commanding attention, occasionally doubleteams. Each is big strong and mobile, athletic. Each sets a resounding pick or screen. In designing a half court offense can you take advantage of these skills for solid efficiency.

Coach Witt runs some of the same stuff that Flip ran (motion sets with multiple picks to free a player) but one thing he did do was go Big and trust Nene to make a shot. Nene responded with the best result of his career, highest PER, 2nd highest Win share, upticks in almost every category. And with Nene as a focal point, dark horse Big Kevin Seraphin responded at times with truly impressive efficiency. Both benefited from the presence of the other.

Way I see it is this. John Wall will surely have the ball in his hands. A marksman like Brad Beal will likely be sent on Rip and Reggie runs on crossing patterns past picks and screens set by the Bigs in the paint. Pick and roll attacks may be emphasized for John Wall.

So the role of the Bigs will be as concrete jersey barriers to ruin whomever is trying to chase the hyperspeed Wall or the savvy and tough Beal; and if the defense decides to overcommit to trap them then the Bigs job will be to avalanche towards the basket to power it home. Or, if the bigs drop off the shade the lane, then the Bigs, left alone, need only to be able to hit a wide open shot. So: what shots do they need? Rim and Long 2. Both categories at which all three have shown decent efficiency.

We have the makings of a pretty nasty and tough frontcourt. Painful to play against. And deep so as to never tire. If we need more energy we can drop in uptempo and smart players like Booker and Vesely, each of whom also sets a painful pick, playing defense on the opposite end of the court by banging and thumping defenders.

In Okafor we add a dedicated and energetic defensive rebounder, next to Nene who improves his teammates defensive board work by sealing his man and boxing out well. Ksera has the same instinct. And with similar players we ad not redundancy but depth, fresh legs, extra fouls, and the energy to maintain an uptempo team end to end offense and defense. The secret strength of any fast break team is the activity level of the bigs. It's looking like we've got a team that can actually use its depth in the frontcourt as a reliable weapon. Should be as fun to watch as it will be a literal pain to play against.

That's nice and all. Nobody is saying that Okafor makes us worse. But that still doesn't change the fact that Okafor is redundant. 5 of our best 7 players play either PF or C. That's not ideal and no amount of analysis will change that fact. If Okafor was replaced with a slightly above-average veteran SF (let's say somebody like a healthy Mike Miller, or Nicolas Batum, or Shawn Marion, for argument's sake), we would be a better ball club.

My reservations about that trade isn't that we haven't added talent, it's just that the pieces don't fit together as they should. I'm over it now so I don't want to beat a dead horse. I do think Okafor is a solid player and I'm optimistic that Wittman can make it work out.

The SF addition will happen in time. First they will see if Trevor can regain his old form. I also expect the upgrade at back up PG to happen. It will either be Crawford or they will bring someone in. Its a work in progress. We can always want the next level but that should not make anyone unhappy with the progress they have been making. Adding Beal, Okafor and Trevor makes them better then having Lewis and he dead weight contract. As did adding Nene for McGee and Nick.

Depending on how the depth gels, the Wiz could have Indy type team next year. What I really like about team with depth and a coach that is willing to play 10 deep is that it saves legs and limits injuries. Again, I see 10 player getting 20-25 minutes with Wall in the 30 range. That limits injuries and helps on back to backs. Plus foul trouble shouldn't be an issue. The one place they don't have the depth is at PG.

[hands11]

That's nice and all. Nobody is saying that Okafor makes us worse. But that still doesn't change the fact that Okafor is redundant. 5 of our best 7 players play either PF or C. That's not ideal and no amount of analysis will change that fact. If Okafor was replaced with a slightly above-average veteran SF [...] we would be a better ball club.

My reservations about that trade isn't that we haven't added talent, it's just that the pieces don't fit together as they should. I'm over it now so I don't want to beat a dead horse. I do think Okafor is a solid player and I'm optimistic that Wittman can make it work out.

How much better? Championship better? Finals better?

To me this may be a crazy like a fox situation. It has occurred to me for a while that one of the best ways to upgrade a team over the long term is to add depth before breadth. The impact on your wins and losses may not immediately be as good as the impact on your morale, but since one of the best ways to build a team for the long haul is to land young talent in the draft you don't necessarily want to accelerate towards mediocrity. So instead you can build a championship bench and role players first, while still adding talent through high or near-lotto draft picks, then when all other pieces are in place, make a trade or other acquisition to plug in the one or two pieces that will take you over the top. But it's tough to recruit stars from other teams. You need surplus talent for trades, you need big money in decent contracts, or you need to luck out and land one via ping pong balls or solid scouting and smart draft picks.

Problem is you can't build with youth forever. You can land draft picks for a few years but if all you do is surround them with a losing culture you build nothing but discontent and bad attitudes. If instead you build your locker room and bench with hard working veterans and ferocious work ethic, it translates to practice court and weight room competition, etc. And ultimately to wins. Imagine the good it will do for our young bigs to see veterans like Okafor and Nene going at each other on court scrapping and hustling. More so, when this does translate to oncourt effect, then franchise talent like John Wall will buy in to the team: they are spending the money to get it done. If John Wall goes down (touch wood, cross fingers etc) then we can still pull a lotto pick, we're deep in role players shallow in stars.

Adding a supermediocre SF would improve the team a bit, no question. I don't see that it would be any better over the long haul than adding an arsenal of competitive good-outlook good effort Bigs who can lead from the frontcourt as well as the bench. Seems to me now we are getting much closer to that 'one player will make the difference' concept.

Exactly. They have not been making a bunch of disjointed mores. There is a strategy in place. We knew Ted wanted high picks. That meant building out while losing for a few years. That is why they didnt add offense last year and they draft a project in Ves. With the tank over and the perfect fit in Beal on the table, they went and adding the offense they needed at SG. But every player they drafted had a curtain personality. The only player they added that doesn't fit the mold of all the other is probably Crawford who they got in a trade, and he isn't even a bad egg. He is just not like the others. They broke the Lewis's big contract into two smaller contracts that can more easily get move or bundled.

Summer ball will be great because we will get to see if Wall fixed his J. If he did. That will be the big difference maker. They set this up nicely for Wall to take off this year. This is the best supporting case he has had to date. Now the team can really turn the corner and take it to the next level. From there, they will make moves to reach for the level after that. They will have the extra assets and picks to do it now.

This is the best set of players, coachs and front office I have seen for a Washington Basketball team in probably 20 years. Next closest was the Jimmy Lynum Nash GM team before they blow it up.

[hands11]

I can't wait to see the final roster. I was just watching some old games like the MIL game from the end of last season and I'm pumped to see what they can do next season. I say the Wiz were better then MIL to end the year and they have only gotten better. Remember, they beat MIL as they were trying to make the playoffs. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Wiz in the playoffs next year. I look for them to get off to a quick start finally. That is going to be key. If you start off playing well, making the playoffs is a lot easier. This is the first time in a long time they will start the season with a legit starting line up and rotation of quality depth.

Nene is going to be a beast next year. He played so well after the trade. Great footwork. Quick first step. Strong decisive moves toward the hoop. He was a bull. Great mid range shot. And he passes well. I think he is going to have a great year. When the ball is in his hands, the entire D has to react to him.

Wall is primed for a great year 3. He was really changing pace well to end the season and that was one things he really needed to learn so he could play more efficiently and under control while taking true advantage of his speed. He displayed several change of pace moves to go along with his solid defense and blocked shots. And he passed really well to close out the year. Even without a great shot I think he will have a great year. If he adds a reliable shot, he will have a wow year.

That is two legit studs right there which is a good place to start if you are looking to make the playoffs. They have two studs and lots of solid depth. Maybe the deepest front court in the league. This team will play great defense. They played smart and as a team. I see a break out year for them. Specially once Beal gets it going. They ended the year with everyone knowing their roles.

Ves was also really impressive. He is going to surprise a lot of people next year. I see him being a very solid rebounder 6-11 glue player. And for a big, he is a great passer. He gets the ball out of his hands fast. He also plays so smart. He tips rebounds in play really well. And he ended the year looking far from a skinny kid. He actually looked like he had a great frame for his size. Ves will prove to be very worthy of the #6 pick. Remember now. This kid is Ves-e-ly Ves-e-ly Ves-e-ly

Kevin is obviously a fan favorite. Lots to like from this young buck. Great post game with left and right hooks, mid range soft shoot, great picks, blocks and he can run for court. He finished the year really well and he will come back even stronger and with more experience after some more international ball.

And don't sell Crawford short. Kid has only played 2 years. While people don't like the chuck in him, he drives really well and probes the defense with change of pace moves ala old school Ledel Eckles keeping defenses off balance. He makes some nice passes and he has balls of steal. I think Randy can groom him into a legit contributor. I think this kid can still get shinned up.

And it goes on from there. They now have Beal. Mason is a solid vet long ball shooter. Ariza can be a great energy guy with slashing to the basket and some long ball and D. Okafor is strong and can rebound along with some post game. C Singleton will be much better in year 2 doing what we drafted him to do. Then you still have Booker who is fast, strong, can finish, dunk, block, D up, and rebound. He even added a mid range last year.

And they still may add Martin and James Singleton which they should to add some more outside shooting.

Its actually a really nice roster. Two studs and great support players and depth. They can have it all even if they keep Dray around. Just leave Dray innovative. What's the harm. If you amnesty him you are paying him anyway. I see him as injury or rest insurance for the bigs. That would be incredible depth. They can activate him when needed for road games against crappier teams to give Nene or Okafor rest on back to back games. Specially on West coast trips. That would allow him to come in and play without worrying about the boo birds. Once he shows a reliable game and the team has a good record, you can reintroduce him to the home crowd. If he is in shape, playing well, and the team in winning games, people need to let go of the past and support the team as they look to move him. I don't think that is to much to ask from the local fans.