Otto Porter Part 2

dobrojim · Post #241 » by **dobrojim** » Wed May 6, 2015 4:33 pm

Our premium as season ticket holders was a framed autographed picture with a certain subset of the players
and not the whole team as potential choices. I wanted Pierce since he will be HoF but he wasn't a
choice. I took OP. This was back mid to late/mid season before he started to really emerge around
the time of the HOU game. The guy who sits behind me took KS (he thinks he's a good player).
I'm pretty confident I made the right choice. There were a couple other options. I already had
Wall and Beal memorabilia. A young core of Wall/Beal/Porter should make for
a successful franchise for many years to come.

Higga · Post #242 » by **Higga** » Wed May 6, 2015 5:13 pm

I don't think Porter was ever really bad in the regular season. He just didn't get consistent minutes. Seems like everytime he played a reasonable amount, he put up double figures.

But now he's playing with aggressiveness and confidence. Love seeing that. I can't wait to see what he does next year with another off season under his belt to work on his game. I could see him being a MIP candidate.

benb331 · Post #243 » by **benb331** » Wed May 6, 2015 6:01 pm

If you're the type to look for silver linings in a loss, it doesn't get much brighter than Otto's continued high level performance. I'd argue that last night's game was his most aggressive and complete as a pro. Every time he steps on the court and delivers like that, he shushes the worries that it's all just a flash in the pan. Part of me remembers Beal's similar playoff comeuppance last year only for him to fall back to his standards this year. I don't expect that to be the case with Porter because it's an overall improvement in hustle, defense, and the confidence to take good shots without hesitation. I think all of those will carry over next year.

dckingsfan · Post #244 » by **dckingsfan** » Wed May 6, 2015 6:57 pm

It is a small list of players under 22 that are there in the playoffs:
http://tinyurl.com/ozmg8xm
And we have two...

fishercob · Post #245 » by **fishercob** » Wed May 6, 2015 7:00 pm

In Otto's 6 playoff games, he has played 193 minutes with a WS/48 of .197 and an Ortg of 130.

Here's a list of players 23 or younger who have played 6 or more playoff games under the age of 23 with a WS/48 above .175 and an Ortg above 125.

http://bkref.com/tiny/5vuv8

Hardly exact science and we are very much in SSST (small sample size theatre), but Otto is in some very impressive company.

Post #246 » by **nate33** » Wed May 6, 2015 7:12 pm

fishercob wrote:In Otto's 6 playoff games, he has played 193 minutes with a WS/48 of .197 and an Ortg of 130.

Here's a list of players 23 or younger who have played 6 or more playoff games under the age of 23 with a WS/48 above .175 and an Ortg above 125.

http://bkref.com/tiny/5vuv8

Hardly exact science and we are very much in SSST (small sample size theatre), but Otto is in some very impressive company.

Eliminate the 23-year-olds and weed out the sub-25 mpg players and Otto looks even better.

It's just Chris Paul, Magic, Harden and Chandler.

IIRC, Chandler had that performance against the Wizards in the series when Arenas hit the game winner. Chandler was incredible that whole series. He shut down all scoring in the paint. He was everywhere.

Post #247 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Thu May 7, 2015 1:37 am

Not to be too much of a party pooper, BUT...while I'm happy with how Porter has played thus far in the playoffs, fish's links are both Small Sample Size Theater AND Perils of Arbitrary Cutoffs. And then there's the issue of the meaningfulness of the statistical measure being applied. But, be happy anyway.

dckingsfan · Post #248 » by **dckingsfan** » Thu May 7, 2015 2:02 am

Agreed on the small sample size - but... I see a couple of things that give me hope. First, confidence - although that can come and go, it seems like he believes now. 2) he isn't getting bounced around as much now. 3) the game seems to have slowed for him

So, I combine the small sample size and the above - is that a leading edge to a breakout. As a fanatic, er fan, I am leaning toward the hands optimism on this one. Now - we just need Beal to do the same

hands11 · Post #249 » by **hands11** » Thu May 7, 2015 9:36 am

Reggie Miller Porter :nod:

Thats Milsap guarding him. He didn't even get close to him.

Porter handling the ball for the transition 3 to Truth

Porter running a two man game with Gooden. ATL decides to double team him and leave Gooden open for the corner 3. Wrong move. Otto makes them pay.

32 mins per game in these playoff .... .500 from 3.. 8 rebounds a game.. :nod:

fishercob · Post #250 » by **fishercob** » Thu May 7, 2015 11:38 am

TheSecretWeapon wrote:Not to be too much of a party pooper, BUT...while I'm happy with how Porter has played thus far in the playoffs, fish's links are both Small Sample Size Theater AND Perils of Arbitrary Cutoffs. And then there's the issue of the meaningfulness of the statistical measure being applied. But, be happy anyway.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6Sxv-sUYtM[/youtube]

Post #251 » by **nate33** » Thu May 7, 2015 11:41 am

TheSecretWeapon wrote:Not to be too much of a party pooper, BUT...while I'm happy with how Porter has played thus far in the playoffs, fish's links are both Small Sample Size Theater AND Perils of Arbitrary Cutoffs. And then there's the issue of the meaningfulness of the statistical measure being applied. But, be happy anyway.

Yeah, there's no doubt that he's playing out of his mind right now. I'm sure he'll come back down to Earth at some point. But the exciting thing is that if somebody who can play that well, at that age, in the playoffs, even if only in spurts, it suggests he's going to be pretty darn good for the rest of his career - particularly because his good play isn't solely dependent on hot shooting. Drop his 3-pt percentage down to 35% instead of 50% and his numbers still look great.

This feels almost like the emergence of Kawhi Leonard in the playoffs of 2013:
Leonard's playoff per 36 (age 21): 13.2 pts, 8.8 rebs, 1.0 ast, 1.7 stl, 0.5 blk, 120 ORtg, 98 DRtg, 18.9 PER, 36.9 min
Porter's playoff per 36 (age 21): 11.8 pts, 9.0 rebs, 1.7 ast, 1.5 stl, 0.4 blk, 130 ORtg, 100 DRtg, 16.8 PER, 32.2 min

Of course, Leonard did it in 21 playoff games. Porter has played 6.

If Porter turns out to be 75% of the player Leonard is, we're going to be really happy.

tontoz · Post #252 » by **tontoz** » Thu May 7, 2015 12:52 pm

During the regular season he had pretty good numbers as a starter. It was when he got sporadic minutes off the bench that he struggled.

Post #253 » by **Ruzious** » Thu May 7, 2015 1:30 pm

fishercob wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:Not to be too much of a party pooper, BUT...while I'm happy with how Porter has played thus far in the playoffs, fish's links are both Small Sample Size Theater AND Perils of Arbitrary Cutoffs. And then there's the issue of the meaningfulness of the statistical measure being applied. But, be happy anyway.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6Sxv-sUYtM[/youtube]

When he outplays Lebron in the next round, I'll be happy. 8-)

hands11 · Post #254 » by **hands11** » Thu May 7, 2015 1:43 pm

Otto Porter 15 Points/5 Assists Full Highlights (5/5/2015)

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chuFJ-63Jx0[/youtube]

fishercob · Post #255 » by **fishercob** » Thu May 7, 2015 1:44 pm

Don't hold your breath on that one, buddy.

stevemcqueen1 · Post #256 » by **stevemcqueen1** » Thu May 7, 2015 2:07 pm

The fact that Otto already has a confident mid range game bodes well for his future as a scorer. That's usually the last thing to develop. I think, somewhere down the road, Otto will be capable of taking over as a first or second option scorer for stretches. There are going to be times when Wall and/or Beal are hurt and he'll have that opportunity.

stevemcqueen1 · Post #257 » by **stevemcqueen1** » Thu May 7, 2015 2:11 pm

SUPERBALLMAN wrote:Sorry I if this was brought up already, but anyone notice the improvement seems to have come with him losing the glasses?

I think it's mostly coincidence, but yes, it does seem to have coincided to when he stopped wearing them. His vision must not be that bad if he can play without corrective lenses, but I wonder if he wouldn't shoot FTs better with them?

I think the main reason for his improvement is that he finally started getting consistent minutes. He knows his shift now and knows what is expected of him. A player of any level of experience can't get comfortable unless he knows when and what his minutes are going to be every game.

Higga · Post #258 » by **Higga** » Thu May 7, 2015 2:46 pm

I think the only thing unsustainable about Porter's playoff performance is his 3 point %. I mean obviously nobody sustains 50% shooting from 3. But if he's even respectable from 3 which I think he will be, that'll just make his game even more imposing.

Post #259 » by **TheSecretWeapon** » Thu May 7, 2015 3:01 pm

nate33 wrote:
TheSecretWeapon wrote:Not to be too much of a party pooper, BUT...while I'm happy with how Porter has played thus far in the playoffs, fish's links are both Small Sample Size Theater AND Perils of Arbitrary Cutoffs. And then there's the issue of the meaningfulness of the statistical measure being applied. But, be happy anyway.

Yeah, there's no doubt that he's playing out of his mind right now. I'm sure he'll come back down to Earth at some point. But the exciting thing is that if somebody who can play that well, at that age, in the playoffs, even if only in spurts, it suggests he's going to be pretty darn good for the rest of his career - particularly because his good play isn't solely dependent on hot shooting. Drop his 3-pt percentage down to 35% instead of 50% and his numbers still look great.

This feels almost like the emergence of Kawhi Leonard in the playoffs of 2013:
Leonard's playoff per 36 (age 21): 13.2 pts, 8.8 rebs, 1.0 ast, 1.7 stl, 0.5 blk, 120 ORtg, 98 DRtg, 18.9 PER, 36.9 min
Porter's playoff per 36 (age 21): 11.8 pts, 9.0 rebs, 1.7 ast, 1.5 stl, 0.4 blk, 130 ORtg, 100 DRtg, 16.8 PER, 32.2 min

Of course, Leonard did it in 21 playoff games. Porter has played 6.

If Porter turns out to be 75% of the player Leonard is, we're going to be really happy.

Another key difference: Kawhi had been terrific in two regular seasons, and had played well the previous year in the playoffs. He was even better in the 2013 postseason, but that postseason wasn't really a surprise because he'd already been terrific. Per minute, Porter has been almost twice as productive (in my measure) as he was in the regular season.

hands11 · Post #260 » by **hands11** » Thu May 7, 2015 3:03 pm

stevemcqueen1 wrote:
SUPERBALLMAN wrote:Sorry I if this was brought up already, but anyone notice the improvement seems to have come with him losing the glasses?

I think it's mostly coincidence, but yes, it does seem to have coincided to when he stopped wearing them. His vision must not be that bad if he can play without corrective lenses, but I wonder if he wouldn't shoot FTs better with them?

I think the main reason for his improvement is that he finally started getting consistent minutes. He knows his shift now and knows what is expected of him. A player of any level of experience can't get comfortable unless he knows when and what his minutes are going to be every game.

He has contacts.

And the glasses would clearly affect his peripheral vision. Not sure why he didn't use goggles with side windows but he didn't.

So like most things, its probably a combination. No glasses helps and its happen to line up with him having better games and building confidence. So part is probably what he has in his head about it. Part the goggles. Part is natural maturing and PP and Randy beating on him to step up.. play harder... shoot it if you are open. Play with confidence.

End Result. He is playing well and stepping up.