Political Roundtable Part XI

[dckingsfan]

He's a construction guy, that's one thing I actually expect him to follow through on, the threat to make Mexico pay for it is somewhat straightforward.

Expect to see iPhones constructed in the USA, some factories trickling back from Mexico and a lot of tariffs and bills sent to Mexico.

I don't agree with it, but if he can convince the senate/house it saves far more than it costs longterm?

Not a chance

Indu - you know we don't have the infrastructure or engineers to massively produce iPhones.

And no way Mexico is going to pay anything - they may just open the southern boarder to annoy Trump.

Assembled, not constructed. It's a start.

Also disagree about the wall, the US does have a lot of leverage over wealthy business owners in Mexico. Just one favorable deal with Carlos Slim and a few others pays for the wall.

Or if they don't? Making a logical case of how much border security currently costs in terms of law enforcement, entitlements etc etc.

One thing I learned in this election, don't say impossible. Especially when Trump has control of all branches of government.

Indy, you know better than that - still need the engineers in massive quantities.

And the wall has become a huge rallying cry in Mexico - anyone that caves will not be reelected.

Not happening... both are things outside the control of this government. Like saying we could get China to reduce its use of coal... hehehe

[pcbothwel]

Well the barbarians sacked the Republic the troglodytes have taken over who dispute science, basic human rights and religiously & racially intolerant. Can see 6 to 9 months in the future a huge degree of buyers remorse and you have got your own Rodrigo Duterte a two bit authoritarian. Welcome to Canada the True North strong and free.

Dude...shut up. I dont go to the Raptors board and tell people how much your country and trudeau suck. Have some respect. I've constantly seen your post in this thread about how dumb Trump and his followers are.

the troglodytes have taken over who dispute science, basic human rights and religiously & racially intolerant

Your obnoxious.

This time next year we're going to have a more secure border, a better/cheaper health care system, a more defined/less political presence overseas, and lower/simplified taxes... But you're right, us dumb americans are just a bunch of neanderthals trying to build a wheel. I hope we can one day be the beacon of hope and freedom that Canada exudes

[Induveca]

Not a chance

Indu - you know we don't have the infrastructure or engineers to massively produce iPhones.

And no way Mexico is going to pay anything - they may just open the southern boarder to annoy Trump.

Assembled, not constructed. It's a start.

Also disagree about the wall, the US does have a lot of leverage over wealthy business owners in Mexico. Just one favorable deal with Carlos Slim and a few others pays for the wall.

Or if they don't? Making a logical case of how much border security currently costs in terms of law enforcement, entitlements etc etc.

One thing I learned in this election, don't say impossible. Especially when Trump has control of all branches of government.

Indy, you know better than that - still need the engineers in massive quantities.

And the wall has become a huge rallying cry in Mexico - anyone that caves will not be reelected.

Not happening... both are things outside the control of this government. Like saying we could get China to reduce its use of coal... hehehe

Disagree, assembly is he first step. I watched Dominicans piece together electronics in the 80s. Assembling and iPhone with Chinese made parts initially isn't unreasonable. That just takes away from Foxconn.

Offering companies the ability to bring home their cash stashed overseas at a massively reduced tax rate gets that deal done.

[cammac]

Well the barbarians sacked the Republic the troglodytes have taken over who dispute science, basic human rights and religiously & racially intolerant. Can see 6 to 9 months in the future a huge degree of buyers remorse and you have got your own Rodrigo Duterte a two bit authoritarian. Welcome to Canada the True North strong and free.

Dude...shut up. I dont go to the Raptors board and tell people how much your country and trudeau suck. Have some respect. I've constantly seen your post in this thread about how dumb Trump and his followers are.

the troglodytes have taken over who dispute science, basic human rights and religiously & racially intolerant

Your obnoxious.

This time next year we're going to have a more secure border, a better/cheaper health care system, a more defined/less political presence overseas, and lower/simplified taxes... But you're right, us dumb americans are just a bunch of neanderthals trying to build a wheel. I hope we can one day be the beacon of hope and freedom that Canada exudes

Well you are the epitome of ignorance the rest of the world shudders at the prospects of Trump as President. He has no prospective of world affairs and that the world is interconnected. Isolationism went out of fashion in the 40s the USA can't stand alone. Yes I'm not a American by the way the Republicans stood in the way of a cheaper/better health insurance by having it brokered through the private sector. Well unfortunately you are right Canada is a beacon of hope and knowledge to you Neanderthals that voted for Trump.

[Wizardspride]

Judging from twitter, the White Nationalists groups are besides themselves right now.

[montestewart]

Judging from twitter, the White Nationalists groups are besides themselves right now.

Better than being beside me

[cammac]

Assembled, not constructed. It's a start.

Also disagree about the wall, the US does have a lot of leverage over wealthy business owners in Mexico. Just one favorable deal with Carlos Slim and a few others pays for the wall.

Or if they don't? Making a logical case of how much border security currently costs in terms of law enforcement, entitlements etc etc.

One thing I learned in this election, don't say impossible. Especially when Trump has control of all branches of government.

Indy, you know better than that - still need the engineers in massive quantities.

And the wall has become a huge rallying cry in Mexico - anyone that caves will not be reelected.

Not happening... both are things outside the control of this government. Like saying we could get China to reduce its use of coal... hehehe

Disagree, assembly is he first step. I watched Dominicans piece together electronics in the 80s. Assembling and iPhone with Chinese made parts initially isn't unreasonable. That just takes away from Foxconn.

Offering companies the ability to bring home their cash stashed overseas at a massively reduced tax rate gets that deal done.

My friend the total cost in China of a I Phone is less than 10% of cost the major components aren't Chinese they are Germany, Korea, Japan & Taiwan. You are correct in one aspect Foxconn does the assembly in China specifically Shenzhen and more than 100,000 people are employed assembling Apple products at average salary including living and food at about $500 USA a month. Best case that would be a minimum of triple the cost in USA likely much more. It would make the I Phone noncompetitive to its rivals. The better solution is to manufacture and design the high tech components which are 90% of the RMC.

[Induveca]

Indy, you know better than that - still need the engineers in massive quantities.

And the wall has become a huge rallying cry in Mexico - anyone that caves will not be reelected.

Not happening... both are things outside the control of this government. Like saying we could get China to reduce its use of coal... hehehe

Disagree, assembly is he first step. I watched Dominicans piece together electronics in the 80s. Assembling and iPhone with Chinese made parts initially isn't unreasonable. That just takes away from Foxconn.

Offering companies the ability to bring home their cash stashed overseas at a massively reduced tax rate gets that deal done.

My friend the total cost in China of a I Phone is less than 10% of cost the major components aren't Chinese they are Germany, Korea, Japan & Taiwan. You are correct in one aspect Foxconn does the assembly in China specifically Shenzhen and more than 100,000 people are employed assembling Apple products at average salary including living and food at about $500 USA a month. Best case that would be a minimum of triple the cost in USA likely much more. It would make the I Phone noncompetitive to its rivals. The better solution is to manufacture and design the high tech components which are 90% of the RMC.

I manufacture in Shenzhen. The costs are not what they were 10 years ago, the RMB exchange has made it hard to turn a major profit.

Recently moved one operation to Vietnam. It's not unfeasible. On this we'all agree to disagree, lots of trade offs on tariffs/corporate taxation, capital repatriation.

There are options. Foxconn recently replaced nearly half its workforce with robots. Better to have automated facilities for 70k US workers making 2000/month than 70k Chinese workers making 700/month. This is an example, and I realize it is more complicated. But Apple has 200 billion in overseas banks, and refuses to bring it into the US due to the 40% tax.

Lower that tax to 10%? Get them to agree to dedicate 50% of the remainder of savings (30 billion) to build 100% Apple owned world class assembly facility (maximum 3 billion cost). That leaves 27 billion for wages. That provides nearly 30 years of a 25k wage for 50k assembly workers, for a company with massive margins.

Don't say it's not doable. They're a unique case, but similar deals can be made for a majority of car manufacturers, major tech corporations etc. The difference is it just isn't 40% tax off the top, make a deal that provides a company new assets and jobs to Americans at the same time. Not just throw their money away.

This combined with infrastructure jobs (again doable by drastically cutting government waste) and millions of jobs are created. I like the plan, it makes sense to me as a businessman. Will it work? We shall see!

[Illmatic12]

Hillary didn't get indicted over the email scandal but it surely cost her the election.

Still hard to get a grip on Trump as President. I was like the perfect contrarian indicator for Trump. The only time I gave him a chance to win was right after he won the primaries and sure enough his poll numbers promptly tanked. Then I went back to dismissing his chances and of course he came back.

I don't think so - I think that if Hispanics had voted for Hillary in the numbers expected, this is a different election. And Blacks got apathetic and didn't turn out.

But yes to Trump - I don't see good things happening. Guessing we have a sea change in 2 or 4 years.

Clinton did not hold the Obama coalition, Trump ended up getting the same % of Hispanic vote as Romney.
Don't discount the 3rd party vote either, Trump won by razor-thin margins in: MI, PA, & WI.

Yep.. people in those swing states who wanted to be special snowflakes and boast about voting for Johnson/ Stein, they indirectly led to this

[Induveca]

Another interesting tidbit for investors. All major healthcare stocks which have been dropping out of Obamacare are *ALL* up 2-5% today.

[dckingsfan]

I don't think so - I think that if Hispanics had voted for Hillary in the numbers expected, this is a different election. And Blacks got apathetic and didn't turn out.

But yes to Trump - I don't see good things happening. Guessing we have a sea change in 2 or 4 years.

Clinton did not hold the Obama coalition, Trump ended up getting the same % of Hispanic vote as Romney.
Don't discount the 3rd party vote either, Trump won by razor-thin margins in: MI, PA, & WI.

I think Trump did better than Romney - the pundits said he would do way worse.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-election-day/trump-did-better-blacks-hispanics-romney-12-exit-polls-n681386

Yes to the very thin margins in MI, PA and WI. But if she really gets the Hispanic vote - FL? Maybe AZ? That is a different election too. Or the black vote in MI - one place where Clinton was outspent in advertising.

But your point about the 3rd party candidates holds - Nearly 5% of the popular vote. 3.56% of the vote in PA and Trump wins by 1.14%. Fascinating.

[dckingsfan]

Disagree, assembly is he first step. Assembling and iPhone with Chinese made parts initially isn't unreasonable. That just takes away from Foxconn.

My friend the total cost in China of a I Phone is less than 10% of cost the major components ....

There are options. Foxconn recently replaced nearly half its workforce with robots. Better to have automated facilities for 70k US workers making 2000/month than 70k Chinese workers making 700/month.

You do realize that this makes the point... where are those engineers that run the robots going to come from?

This is a pipedream that anything will happen quickly. You are in business - you know how long it takes. I just finished a consulting gig on building a manufacturing facility here - 10 years in the making. Not a complete success though - too hard to get the engineers.

It takes time for those engineers and millwrights to come up to speed. It takes time to get the manufacturing pipeline up to speed.

[montestewart]

I don't think so - I think that if Hispanics had voted for Hillary in the numbers expected, this is a different election. And Blacks got apathetic and didn't turn out.

But yes to Trump - I don't see good things happening. Guessing we have a sea change in 2 or 4 years.

Clinton did not hold the Obama coalition, Trump ended up getting the same % of Hispanic vote as Romney.
Don't discount the 3rd party vote either, Trump won by razor-thin margins in: MI, PA, & WI.

Yep.. people in those swing states who wanted to be special snowflakes and boast about voting for Johnson/ Stein, they indirectly led to this

Clinton supporters angry moral high ground may keep some third-party snowflakes quiet about their choice, but not me. I voted for Stein. Not in a swing state, and I would have voted for Clinton were I living in a swing state, but every four years I am (not at all) surprised by the anti-democratic sentiments expressed by Democratic Party supporters with regard to third-party candidates. It comes across as intolerant and ill-informed, and it is also a big part of the Democratic Party's problem in that it contributes to a lack of accountability for failure.

I read today that if Clinton got all of Stein's votes, it would have changed the outcome in Michigan and Wisconsin only, and Trump would still be president. I don't know what the data is on Johnson, but I haven't met anyone intending to vote for Johnson who was a Democrat. Blaming the outcome on third-party voters is an understandable initial reaction, but more than anything else, the Democratic Party leaders and supporters need to look at themselves, their actions, and their campaign to understand why they lost.

[AFM]

I'm choosing to remain positive. Above all, I'm happy the election is over and I hope we can start healing!

[AFM]

PS, I see DC overwhelmingly voted to PASS the DC Statehood whatever. The State of New Columbia.
Anyone have an oponion on this?

[tontoz]

PS, I see DC overwhelmingly voted to PASS the DC Statehood whatever. The State of New Columbia.
Anyone have an oponion on this?

Pretty sure DC residents have always wanted statehood but Congress won't approve it.

[dckingsfan]

... but more than anything else, the Democratic Party leaders and supporters need to look at themselves, their actions, and their campaign to understand why they lost.

I so cosign this post. There are some parts of the D party that make me scratch my head.

I think they went in thinking they couldn't lose. Sometimes you become myopic. When you can understand the appeal of your competition you don't know how to combat it...

[AFM]

PS, I see DC overwhelmingly voted to PASS the DC Statehood whatever. The State of New Columbia.
Anyone have an oponion on this?

Pretty sure DC residents have always wanted statehood but Congress won't approve it.

Word

New Columbia? Sounds very Bioshocky

[Kanyewest]

Hillary didn't get indicted over the email scandal but it surely cost her the election.

Still hard to get a grip on Trump as President. I was like the perfect contrarian indicator for Trump. The only time I gave him a chance to win was right after he won the primaries and sure enough his poll numbers promptly tanked. Then I went back to dismissing his chances and of course he came back.

Interesting, I felt the same way. I thought Trump would change his messaging a bit though. Turns out he didn't need to because the enthusiasm was behind him.

[Illmatic12]

Clinton did not hold the Obama coalition, Trump ended up getting the same % of Hispanic vote as Romney.
Don't discount the 3rd party vote either, Trump won by razor-thin margins in: MI, PA, & WI.

Yep.. people in those swing states who wanted to be special snowflakes and boast about voting for Johnson/ Stein, they indirectly led to this

Clinton supporters angry moral high ground may keep some third-party snowflakes quiet about their choice, but not me. I voted for Stein. Not in a swing state, and I would have voted for Clinton were I living in a swing state, but every four years I am (not at all) surprised by the anti-democratic sentiments expressed by Democratic Party supporters with regard to third-party candidates. It comes across as intolerant and ill-informed, and it is also a big part of the Democratic Party's problem in that it contributes to a lack of accountability for failure.

I read today that if Clinton got all of Stein's votes, it would have changed the outcome in Michigan and Wisconsin only, and Trump would still be president. I don't know what the data is on Johnson, but I haven't met anyone intending to vote for Johnson who was a Democrat. Blaming the outcome on third-party voters is an understandable initial reaction, but more than anything else, the Democratic Party leaders and supporters need to look at themselves, their actions, and their campaign to understand why they lost.

Registered independent and I supported Bernie (who would have beat Donald handily, imo) - but cast my vote in MD for Clinton. I foresaw this scenario, that people in swing states may not value their votes appropriately.

And no question, this result is due to the Democrat machine backing possibly the least favorable presidential candidate in American history.