Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVI

[Jay81]

how is D howard only 32? Did he enter the league when he was 11?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If Porter opts out, then we are getting the #4 this year for, essentially, the difference between Otto's production & Parsons' production in the next 2 years.

Would you do it?

Porter is the last guy I want to trade, & we don't know that he'll opt out in two years. It's only if you assume that he does that you can justify the value proposition as equitable, & you can't assume that.

Thing is, a team can't really get a lot better via trades. Trades are based on equitability. Sometimes that equitability is disturbed by *need* -- as when we had to give way too much to get Gortat's expiring salary, because our genius FO had zero Plan B when Okafor was injured. But, in principle, these guys all understand that to get value you have to give value, & to get rid of negative value you have to add even more positive value.

In that sense, it's Memphis that is trying to ship out a negative. Think of it this way: would they trade Parsons' boat-anchor contract & the #4 for the #5? Obviously, they would. How about for the #6 instead of the #5? Sure. What if it were the #7 not the #6? Absolutely. Would they take the #8? Keep in mind that they are dumping $50m in salary in this deal! To drop 4 spots in the draft. If you were running the Grizzlies, would you be able to say no to that deal? Realistically?

Of course, if you rinse & repeat, going down one pick at a time, there does come a point where you get to the deal they wouldn't take, right? Would they take Philly's #10, for example? Hmmm... again, real world? Hard not to say yeah ok!

If so, then to make Porter plus the #15, you'd be valuing Otto Porter as equal to a 5 pick drop in this draft. As I say, you'd have to assume it was 100% that he'd be gone anyway after next season.

Yet... at this point I could probably be talked into doing just about anything. I can't help it; I'm really sick of watching this team pretend that it's good, while I also watch Boston & Philly & Indy actually become good. Next will come Milwaukee (probably already have passed us) & Chicago (might take them 2-3 years).

It's getting to be more than I can handle & stay interested in the team. It's also the reason why from time to time (too often, no doubt -- more often than I should) I lapse into negative comments.

The only change that matters, the only real change, will happen when Ernie goes. Don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out, Ernie!

Teams can and do get a lot better with trades.

The Grizzlies traded a Gasol and got a Gasol on and it really helped them.

When the Lakers got pal that enable them to have a championship run along with Kobe Bryant and the rest of the Laker team which consisted of sane Andrew Bynum, relatively drug-free Lamar Odom, someone saying formally Ron Artest known as Metta World Peace, Derek I Am Not My Brother's Keeper but I will keep his wife Fisher...

The trade was to get a significant piece for LAL in return for draft assets to MEM. Marc Gasol has been a very serviceable player for the Grizzlies and arguably better than Pal Gasol.

A similar trade that made a team better was when Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen became Celtics. I believe a young Al Jefferson was traded away from Boston.

You have to give to get sorry if I did not read your post well PIF

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If Porter opts out, then we are getting the #4 this year for, essentially, the difference between Otto's production & Parsons' production in the next 2 years.

Would you do it?

Porter is the last guy I want to trade, & we don't know that he'll opt out in two years. It's only if you assume that he does that you can justify the value proposition as equitable, & you can't assume that.

Thing is, a team can't really get a lot better via trades. Trades are based on equitability. Sometimes that equitability is disturbed by *need* -- as when we had to give way too much to get Gortat's expiring salary, because our genius FO had zero Plan B when Okafor was injured. But, in principle, these guys all understand that to get value you have to give value, & to get rid of negative value you have to add even more positive value.

In that sense, it's Memphis that is trying to ship out a negative. Think of it this way: would they trade Parsons' boat-anchor contract & the #4 for the #5? Obviously, they would. How about for the #6 instead of the #5? Sure. What if it were the #7 not the #6? Absolutely. Would they take the #8? Keep in mind that they are dumping $50m in salary in this deal! To drop 4 spots in the draft. If you were running the Grizzlies, would you be able to say no to that deal? Realistically?

Of course, if you rinse & repeat, going down one pick at a time, there does come a point where you get to the deal they wouldn't take, right? Would they take Philly's #10, for example? Hmmm... again, real world? Hard not to say yeah ok!

If so, then to make Porter plus the #15, you'd be valuing Otto Porter as equal to a 5 pick drop in this draft. As I say, you'd have to assume it was 100% that he'd be gone anyway after next season.

Yet... at this point I could probably be talked into doing just about anything. I can't help it; I'm really sick of watching this team pretend that it's good, while I also watch Boston & Philly & Indy actually become good. Next will come Milwaukee (probably already have passed us) & Chicago (might take them 2-3 years).

It's getting to be more than I can handle & stay interested in the team. It's also the reason why from time to time (too often, no doubt -- more often than I should) I lapse into negative comments.

The only change that matters, the only real change, will happen when Ernie goes. Don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out, Ernie!

I am bored with the Wizards because I know they won't do the kind of thing they need to be doing right now

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

how is D howard only 32? Did he enter the league when he was 11?

If Dwight Howard gets with the right team he willl become like JaVale McGee, a champion

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[pcbothwel]

So who could use Morris and Oubre??? How about...

Another one to add onto the list...Philly.
If they miss out on the big 3, it sounds as though they want to spend the max next year.

Smith, Oubre and Morris (and cash) for some group of McConnell, Korkmaz, Holmes, and Jonah Bolden

They just added Zhaire, Milton and Shamet to a backcourt that includes
PG
Bayless
Fultz
Simmons
McConnell

SG
Anderson
Korkmaz
TLC

Something has to give

[payitforward]

...we should move Oubre because I think he easily gets 4/75M as an offer sheet.
The more I think about it, we also should not be in a rush to move Mahinmi. i think there will be a ton of cap space next year and teams will be looking how to use it. dumping him should be quite simple assuming we add cash....

So ...
1) No point in trading big 3, so scratch Wall, Beal, and Otto
2) No reason to dump Mahinmi if it requires an overpay
3) No reason to send out pick

(instead, trade)... a package of expiring contracts that include Oubre, Morris, and Smith (17.2M).
So how much salary can we take back?
... lets just call it 12M for now

So who could use Morris and Oubre??? ...

(You wrote "Morris and Oubre" -- I assume Smith dropped out by accident.)

This all makes perfect sense strategically. I'll take the actual trades in a next post

[pcbothwel]

...we should move Oubre because I think he easily gets 4/75M as an offer sheet.
The more I think about it, we also should not be in a rush to move Mahinmi. i think there will be a ton of cap space next year and teams will be looking how to use it. dumping him should be quite simple assuming we add cash....

So ...
1) No point in trading big 3, so scratch Wall, Beal, and Otto
2) No reason to dump Mahinmi if it requires an overpay
3) No reason to send out pick

(instead, trade)... a package of expiring contracts that include Oubre, Morris, and Smith (17.2M).
So how much salary can we take back?
... lets just call it 12M for now

So who could use Morris and Oubre??? ...

(You wrote "Morris and Oubre" -- I assume Smith dropped out by accident.)

This all makes perfect sense strategically. I'll take the actual trades in a next post

No accident...because no one can really 'Use' Smith. So fit only matters for Oubre and Morris.

[payitforward]

So who could use Morris, Smith, and Oubre??? How about..

Orlando for Augustin, Isaac, and Birch (13.6M)
- Sign Vet min PF (I.E. Tolliver, LRMAM, Mike Scott)
Wall / DJ
Beal /Rivers
Otto / Sato / Brown
LRMAM / Isaac
Mahinmi / Birch

I'd do this trade every day & twice on Sundays (even though for the life of me I can't figure out who LRMAM is ).

But, I can't see Orlando being interested. Here's why:

1. They have a new GM, & I don't think he's going to shorten his runway drastically by trading Isaac or Birch.
2. Augustin is excellent value at his salary.
3. This trade leaves them 3100 minutes short at PG vs. last year (having let Mack go...). Peyton can pick up 1000 of those, but they'd still need to sign a PG, & his level of play & salary impact the value of the trade for them. If he's as good as Augustin & cheaper, great. But they still need to acquire him.

What if we leave Augustin out of the trade. Well... see my #1 -- but what about value? Would they take Smith & Oubre, or Morris & Oubre, for Isaac & Birch?

They let Smith walk for nothing 2 years ago, which says at least something about how some people in the organization valued him (nothing). So lets make it Morris & Oubre.

Could they value Oubre high enough that they'd give the #6 pick from last year's draft plus the bargain-level controlled asset of Birch for him & Markieff Morris? Hmmm, Morris is expiring. So, really it comes down to those other 2 young assets for Kelly Oubre, who -- per you -- is going to get a $75m/4 year offer. & that's why...

...absolutely! If Ernie makes this happen, I take a black mark off the long list. But, it seems one-sided in our direction. Not to mention that it does a huge amount for our financial problems -- teams like to make you pay more not less for that benefit!

[payitforward]

So, how about this one....

Oubre, Morris & Smith to...

...Indiana for Joseph, Leaf, and Anigbogu (11.7M)

This is a very different kind of trade to me.

Both Joseph & Morris are expiring, & their salaries differ by only $650K. Their teams would only want to trade them, because they don't much figure in the team future, & the other team's guy is more useful this year.

IOW, I could see a straight swap of convenience there: Morris for Joseph. Does this make sense to you? Honestly, I don't see this swap has having much of any other effect on either team -- am I missing something?

The other part -- Oubre & Smith out, Anikbogu & Leaf in -- is great for getting Smith off our books. But, doesn't it make us a much worse team this year?

Leaf played 459 minutes last year. He shot the 3 well (on a small sample size), that's it. He shot the 2 badly, FTs horribly. Didn't rebound. & is solidly behind overall on everything else he did on the court. Now... he was a rookie! So it's unfair to act like he should be playing at a veteran level. But, except for 3pt. shooting, Oubre was better than Leaf as a rookie at absolutely everything on the basketball court.

Anigbogu, otoh, played 30 minutes. He also played almost 500 minutes in the G League where his numbers were nothing special.

Of course, if we treat Oubre as 100% gone, then he has no value going forward. In that case, you can argue that Leaf/Anigbogu outweigh him & Smith. But... I'm not sure that's a sound basis for evaluating this trade.

I guess all that means is that I can imagine Indiana making this deal, but I don't see enough there for us to do it.

Wait... it gets us out of the luxury tax this year. That's a pretty strong appeal. Even if it did leave us worse this year & no better thereafter.

But, it would be pretty hard to stomach watching a team with Cory Joseph, Ike Anigbogu, T.J. Leaf, Ian Mahinmi, Jodie Meeks & Austin Rivers as 6 guys rounding out Wall, Beal, Porter, Satoransky & the rookie Brown (11) -- plus Devin Robinson &, as you say, "some veteran minimum players."

[dckingsfan]

↑↑↑↑↑

I think this is a realistic and reasonable trade for both sides. Oubre becomes their SF going forward. Like you say - those guys aren't the core of their team and Oubre could become one of their core guys. Morris/Smith are just expiring contracts to them (although Morris would be a reasonably useful backup PF.

We are clearly going in a different direction with Brown. So, it makes sense. It might also push us to playing more small ball (although I doubt Ernie would even bring that into his thinking). I guess it would make sense to then trade Satoransky - he is out of favor here anyway.

Code: Select all

Wall      Joseph     Satoransky   
Beal      Rivers     Meeks        Satoransky
Porter    Brown      Satoransky   
Leaf      Porter      
Mahimni   Anigbogu      


[80sballboy]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2784004-demarcus-cousins-trade-rumors-wizards-seen-as-long-shot-for-sign-and-trade-deal

[HoustonPelicans]

Would you guys trade Otto Porter for Niko Mirotic and Solomon Hill?

[Eli Babak]

Hill sucks and Mirotic doesn't move the needle. So, the answer is no. You can have Mahinmi, Smith and Meeks though!

[dckingsfan]

Would you guys trade Otto Porter for Niko Mirotic and Solomon Hill?

That is a pretty one-sided trade. You are asking the right question though - How do you get rid of Hill.

I would think that a trade of Oubre & Morris for Mirotic would be fairer, no? You get the small forward you need to compete + no hole at PF. You still have a problem with Hill and his contract but we don't want to help you with that.

[Dark Faze]

Would you guys trade Otto Porter for Niko Mirotic and Solomon Hill?

That is a pretty one-sided trade. You are asking the right question though - How do you get rid of Hill.

I would think that a trade of Oubre & Morris for Mirotic would be fairer, no? You get the small forward you need to compete + no hole at PF. You still have a problem with Hill and his contract but we don't want to help you with that.

Problem for both teams is that both guys will be expiring and both teams are up against the cap. With the market being what it is, neither team can guarantee they can keep whatever asset they get.

[Dat2U]

I was thinking of potential go-all-in moves with LeBron out the East and I really can't think of any.

I'm under no illusions that DMC coming off an achillies could help, even if he came relatively cheaply.

Outside of Capela, who is unattainable to us, there is no perfect fit.

IMO, the best way to improve this season is to:

A. Modernize the offense. Less long 2s - outside of Otto - Otto can put up any shot he wants. He shoots it well enough to do so.

B. Move away from ISO ball at the end of possessions and end of games. We don't have the personnel for it. Stop it. Put Wall in a P&R and give him options!

C. Know our personnel. Recognize our best lineups. Otto at the 4. Kelly at the 3. Rivers is our backup 2, not 1. Get Sato as many minutes off the bench as possible at the 1, 2 & 3.

D. Skip out on resigning Scott. Go for Tolliver or Mbah A Moute instead. Defense matters!

E. Noel, O'Quinn or Noguiera works at C

F. Markieff must go. We need to rid the roster of one of our guys with questionable basketball character. As the defacto locker room leader and first guy to melt down when things don't go well, i nominate Markieff as the guy to go. I'd deal him for any F with a pulse that can get rotation minutes.

[mhd]

I was thinking of potential go-all-in moves with LeBron out the East and I really can't think of any.

I'm under no illusions that DMC coming off an achillies could help, even if he came relatively cheaply.

Outside of Capela, who is unattainable to us, there is no perfect fit.

IMO, the best way to improve this season is to:

A. Modernize the offense. Less long 2s - outside of Otto - Otto can put up any shot he wants. He shoots it well enough to do so.

B. Move away from ISO ball at the end of possessions and end of games. We don't have the personnel for it. Stop it. Put Wall in a P&R and give him options!

C. Know our personnel. Recognize our best lineups. Otto at the 4. Kelly at the 3. Rivers is our backup 2, not 1. Get Sato as many minutes off the bench as possible at the 1, 2 & 3.

D. Skip out on resigning Scott. Go for Tolliver or Mbah A Moute instead. Defense matters!

E. Noel, O'Quinn or Noguiera works at C

F. Markieff must go. We need to rid the roster of one of our guys with questionable basketball character. As the defacto locker room leader and first guy to melt down when things don't go well, i nominate Markieff as the guy to go. I'd deal him for any F with a pulse that can get rotation minutes.

Love is out there (obviously), but the Cavs aren't taking Morris+Mahinmi+Oubre+2018 1st for Love, are they?

[Rafael122]

I was thinking of potential go-all-in moves with LeBron out the East and I really can't think of any.

I'm under no illusions that DMC coming off an achillies could help, even if he came relatively cheaply.

Outside of Capela, who is unattainable to us, there is no perfect fit.

IMO, the best way to improve this season is to:

A. Modernize the offense. Less long 2s - outside of Otto - Otto can put up any shot he wants. He shoots it well enough to do so.

B. Move away from ISO ball at the end of possessions and end of games. We don't have the personnel for it. Stop it. Put Wall in a P&R and give him options!

C. Know our personnel. Recognize our best lineups. Otto at the 4. Kelly at the 3. Rivers is our backup 2, not 1. Get Sato as many minutes off the bench as possible at the 1, 2 & 3.

D. Skip out on resigning Scott. Go for Tolliver or Mbah A Moute instead. Defense matters!

E. Noel, O'Quinn or Noguiera works at C

F. Markieff must go. We need to rid the roster of one of our guys with questionable basketball character. As the defacto locker room leader and first guy to melt down when things don't go well, i nominate Markieff as the guy to go. I'd deal him for any F with a pulse that can get rotation minutes.

Love is out there (obviously), but the Cavs aren't taking Morris+Mahinmi+Oubre+2018 1st for Love, are they?

I mean, what other offers would be out there? Would Phoenix trade Josh Jackson for him? Probably not. I read something on Twitter where Cleveland should trade Love for Batum but why would Cleveland get stuck with that contract? I think that's a fair offer for a player who will most likely leave next year. Love's trade value has plummeted since they won it all 2 years ago.

[dckingsfan]

↑↑↑↑↑

For A, B & C Why do we think that we will retool our lineups and approach to offense with the same coach?

[payitforward]

I was thinking of potential go-all-in moves with LeBron out the East and I really can't think of any.

I'm under no illusions that DMC coming off an achillies could help, even if he came relatively cheaply.

Outside of Capela, who is unattainable to us, there is no perfect fit.

IMO, the best way to improve this season is to:

A. Modernize the offense. Less long 2s - outside of Otto - Otto can put up any shot he wants. He shoots it well enough to do so.

B. Move away from ISO ball at the end of possessions and end of games. We don't have the personnel for it. Stop it. Put Wall in a P&R and give him options!

C. Know our personnel. Recognize our best lineups. Otto at the 4. Kelly at the 3. Rivers is our backup 2, not 1. Get Sato as many minutes off the bench as possible at the 1, 2 & 3.

D. Skip out on resigning Scott. Go for Tolliver or Mbah A Moute instead. Defense matters!

E. Noel, O'Quinn or Noguiera works at C

F. Markieff must go. We need to rid the roster of one of our guys with questionable basketball character. As the defacto locker room leader and first guy to melt down when things don't go well, i nominate Markieff as the guy to go. I'd deal him for any F with a pulse that can get rotation minutes.

That's some good thinking, Dat !!

I'd rather trade Kieff for a R2 pick than a marginal player (just so at least we get to roll the dice w/ that pick). But, that's NOT something Ernie would do -- makes it too obvious what an overpay it was to give up a lottery pick for him.

Definitely no MIke Scott, please!

I very much like your 3 Center candidates. I'd take the cheapest one among them. O'Quinn would be the surest bet -- he played enough last year that you know what you're getting. But, he's likely to be the most expensive among them & is the oldest. Nogueira doesn't rebound much. Noel might be something of a head case (that's the way he's viewed on the Sixers Board).

Ernie wants Noel, that's obvious given this morning's report that Noel's short list is the Lakers, Thunder & Wizards. He'll follow the money & the opportunity -- seems like LA can give him more of both of those than either OKC or the Wizards, no?