Official Trade Thread - Part XLI

[payitforward]

... I wouldn't trade for Simmons. ...He's a great defender, but he's unplayable on offense.

This is simply not true about Simmons on offense. It's not subtle or complicated either -- it's obvious.

Far from being unplayable on offense, Ben Simmons is actually quite effective on offense. Just in a kind of unconventional way.

Per 40 minutes this year, Ben Simmons score @2.3 fewer points than an average PG. On the other hand, he scored those points at a level of efficiency well above average for a PG. That is, he used @2.4 fewer possessions than average for a PG to get his points.

Which means that Simmons is actually an above average PG on offense but on slightly lower than average usage. This year, for example, his TS% was 58.4%. The average for an NBA PG was 55.9%

Of course, there's more to offense than scoring. If you turn the ball over more often than average, that counts against your results. & Simmons did turn the ball over more than average.

OTOH, if you get more offensive rebounds than average, that counts in favor of your results. Simmons got way more of those an average PG -- more than making up for his TOs.

Come to think of it, even steals are part of a player's offensive impact, since a steal gives your team an extra chance to score; i.e. it contributes to offensive results. Simmons gets way more steals than an average PG.

Let me put the overall result this way -- if every player on your team played at the offensive level of Ben Simmons, you'd be one of the best offensive teams in the league, maybe the very best.

You are of course right to call him "a great defender."

Its true right now in the playoffs. He's mentally incapable of playing on offense. He's afraid of contact. He's afraid of going to the line. Philly is playing 4 on 5 when he's on the court. If a max player cannot play in the closing minutes of games, than he's an albatross.

For sure he had an awful game 6 vs the Hawks.

Then again, Joel Embiid went 9-24 & had 8 turnovers. He was worse than Simmons, but I'm not hearing you criticize him....

I watched that game -- couldn't believe how badly both teams played! Bogdanovic & Lou Williams were both horrendous! The Hawks shot 54% -- on free throws!

[payitforward]

Gotta disagree (about Simmon). This is where your box score evaluations of players fall short. If all of this was true, Philly wouldn't be taking Simmons off the court in the playoffs during critical offensive possessions.....

The problem is not with my evaluation or its methods. It's not like I substitute numbers for reality! I use numbers to understand the meaning of the reality we all see.

...I still think Simmons is a good player, but I don't consider him a good offensive player...

The problem is with what we mean when we call a player "good", "bad," "unplayable."

I'm a basketball fan; I watch the games. What Ben Simmons can & can't do athletically & skill-wise is right there in front of my eyes. If Simmons were a "good offensive player" in the sense you give the term, i.e. referring to a range of skills & their levels, he'd be up there with LeBron James overall!

There's nothing the matter with using the term "good" in that way. In many situations it is totally appropriate. Thus, if we are looking at a floor routine in gymnastics, or for that matter if we're listening to someone play a Beethoven sonata, it's the right way to discuss how "good" someone is.

But in a team sport where games are decided by numerical scores, we have to use totally different methods to understand what "good" means. We have to look at the effect of a player's activities on those game scores.

To do that we have to -- & we are able to -- develop pretty good metrics about what affects those scores & how. When we apply those metrics to Simmons, we discover -- perhaps to our surprise -- that he looks pretty good!

Thus, TS%, offensive boards, steals, etc. are excellent indicators of how good a player is on offense.

& that's what makes this wrong:

Simmons is unplayable on offense. Atlanta is better off when he’s on the court

Ben Simmons was only 15 seconds a game behind Tobias Harris in minutes per game for Philly. Ahead of Embiid & every other player on the team.

[DCZards]

There are some late game situations when Ben’s shortcomings (like his terrible foul shooting and inability to make 3s) force his coach to take him out of the game. (That’s not good.)

You can’t say the same about a Kawhi, Durant, or even Beal...unless you have to take them out because they’re hurt or in foul trouble.

[nate33]

How much more could he be hidden with a lineup of Embiid, Curry, Harris, and Green/Korkmaz? All are good/great shooters. Simmons is unplayable on offense. Atlanta is better off when he’s on the court

The team looks great when it's those particular 5 players on the floor. They're +13.8 with Embiid, Curry, Harris and Green, and +25.1 with those 3 guys and Kormaz. It's when he has to share the floor with Howard that they have trouble (-8.7 net rating alongside Howard). They don't even try to ever have him share the floor with Thybulle.

[Dat2U]

Simmons needs to be the only non-shooter on the floor. He also needs spacing to slash and with Embiid that isn't going to happen.

I'm in love with the idea of Simmons playing alot of point C. He's too athletic for nearly any true C and would create an ton of mismatches. He'd force coaches into going small or get punished for not doing so.

[TGW]

Simmons needs to be the only non-shooter on the floor. He also needs spacing to slash and with Embiid that isn't going to happen.

I'm in love with the idea of Simmons playing alot of point C. He's too athletic for nearly any true C and would create an ton of mismatches. He'd force coaches into going small or get punished for not doing so.

I thiink Simmons would be a perfect d'antoni center.

[Shoe]

Not quite "trade" news, but fun to muse about:

Russell Westbrook’s wife’s Instagram activity has Lakers fans excited

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/russell-westbrook-s-wife-s-instagram-activity-has-lakers-fans-excited/ar-AALcKnq?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

Westbrook to LA in a 3-4 team trade.

[Silvie Lysandra]

If Philly flames out tonight? How can we get Simmons without giving up Beal? Avdija/pick/Westbrook? Is that nuts? Westbrook would be pretty good with Embiid and Harris along with their crew of wing players.

Westbrook, Avdija & pick for Simmons & G. Hill

I'd move him to C and try to run teams out of the building. There's no C that could stay in front of him. Philly can't do that because they have a dominating big of their own.

C B. Simmons ... Gafford ... Bryant
F Hachimura ... Bertans ... (Bonga)
F ??? ... ??? ... ???
G Beal ... (Mathews) ... ???
G G. Hill ... ??? ... (Neto) ... Winston

Moving Bryant for a wing would make alot sense in this scenario. I'd like to resign Mathews. Keeping Neto as cheap depth option makes sense as well. I personally like Bonga as depth as a 4/3 due to his defensive abilities.

If the Sixers take that trade everyone and I mean everyone employed by that franchise should be fired

[gambitx777]

I think we can all agree that unless we trade beal we arnt getting Simmons and at this point you don't trade a beal for a Simmons.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

[penbeast0]

If Philly flames out tonight? How can we get Simmons without giving up Beal? Avdija/pick/Westbrook? Is that nuts? Westbrook would be pretty good with Embiid and Harris along with their crew of wing players.

I don't think it's close to enough for Philly to bite. If they decide to trade Simmons for Westbrook (unlikely) it would take Hachimura, pick, probably Gafford too if they buy the way he played for us last year is his real value.


Hill (Ish or Neto returns)
Beal (Mathews)
Simmons (Bertrans, Bonga)
Avjida (Bertrans -- comes in with a defensive center whenever Bryant sits)
Bryant (resign Len?)

[nate33]

If Philly flames out tonight? How can we get Simmons without giving up Beal? Avdija/pick/Westbrook? Is that nuts? Westbrook would be pretty good with Embiid and Harris along with their crew of wing players.

I don't think it's close to enough for Philly to bite. If they decide to trade Simmons for Westbrook (unlikely) it would take Hachimura, pick, probably Gafford too if they buy the way he played for us last year is his real value.


Hill (Ish or Neto returns)
Beal (Mathews)
Simmons (Bertrans, Bonga)
Avjida (Bertrans -- comes in with a defensive center whenever Bryant sits)
Bryant (resign Len?)

I'm not doing that trade with Gafford included. Eff that! The Sixers don't really need him anyway.

Including Hachimura in place of Avdija is worth consideration.

[mhd]

I don't think it's close to enough for Philly to bite. If they decide to trade Simmons for Westbrook (unlikely) it would take Hachimura, pick, probably Gafford too if they buy the way he played for us last year is his real value.


Hill (Ish or Neto returns)
Beal (Mathews)
Simmons (Bertrans, Bonga)
Avjida (Bertrans -- comes in with a defensive center whenever Bryant sits)
Bryant (resign Len?)

I'm not doing that trade with Gafford included. Eff that! The Sixers don't really need him anyway.

Including Hachimura in place of Avdija is worth consideration.

I'm 100% against trading for Simmons. Have you looked at his contract? He's scared on offense. You can't win when your team's 2nd best player (on a max contract) is scared in critical moments in a game. He's a complete liability on offense. He's Nick Anderson 2.0. He's the worst shooter I've ever seen. I'm 100% opposed to trading Russ for Simmons. I'd rather let Russ expire than have Simmons for 3 more years.

[nate33]

A trade proposed on the Trade Board:

Washington trades: Beal, Bertans, Hutchison
Philly trades: Simmons, Thybulle, Hill, #28, 2023 1st, pick swaps in 2022 and 2024.

I think that's pretty good value! I'd probably try and flip Simmons for a top 4 pick if possible. I think Minnesota and OKC might be interested. Let's say we got Jalen Green. At #15, we draft Cooper. At #28, we draft maybe Ayayi. Move Westbrook for whatever we can, maybe a cap relief and a future pick?

Our lineup:

PG Cooper/Hill
SG Green/Ayayi
SF Thybulle/Avdija
PF Hachimura/Avdija
C Gafford/Bryant

That's a lot of good young players with upside! And they fit pretty well. They'd struggle at first because they're so young, but Cooper is a pure PG, Green is a pure #1 option scorer, Thybulle is an elite wing defender, Hachimura is on his way to being a rock solid 3rd-option scorer and versatile 2 through 5 defender, and Gafford is a great rim protector. It's basically a younger version of the Phoenix Suns.

Plus we still have the Sixers 2023 1st and two unlikely pick swaps. And we'd add whatever we got in the Westbrook trade - probably a couple of veteran contracts and maybe a late pick. I'd be excited about rebuilding around that group.

[mhd]

A trade proposed on the Trade Board:

Washington trades: Beal, Bertans, Hutchison
Philly trades: Simmons, Thybulle, Hill, #28, 2023 1st, pick swaps in 2022 and 2024.

I think that's pretty good value! I'd probably try and flip Simmons for a top 4 pick if possible. I think Minnesota and OKC might be interested. Let's say we got Jalen Green. At #15, we draft Cooper. At #28, we draft maybe Ayayi. Move Westbrook for whatever we can, maybe a cap relief and a future pick?

Our lineup:

PG Cooper/Hill
SG Green/Ayayi
SF Thybulle/Avdija
PF Hachimura/Avdija
C Gafford/Bryant

That's a lot of good young players with upside! And they fit pretty well. They'd struggle at first because they're so young, but Cooper is a pure PG, Green is a pure #1 option scorer, Thybulle is an elite wing defender, Hachimura is on his way to being a rock solid 3rd-option scorer and versatile 2 through 5 defender, and Gafford is a great rim protector. It's basically a younger version of the Phoenix Suns.

Plus we still have the Sixers 2023 1st and two unlikely pick swaps. And we'd add whatever we got in the Westbrook trade - probably a couple of veteran contracts and maybe a late pick. I'd be excited about rebuilding around that group.

Presti is too smart to trade a Jalen Green (on a cheap deal) for Simmons. Green is arguably the player with the most upside in this draft. OKC is still in asset collecting mode. Better to find another fit alongside SGA (on a cheap contract before his eventual extension) than to tie your cap on Simmons. Rojas doesn't want non-shooters on the floor. He came from the Houston system. Those picks from Philly would be late first rounders (and we wouldn't end up swapping with Philly b/c they'd easily have better records than us).

Thybulle is the only valuable piece combing back, and he can't play with Simmons anyways. You're offense would grind to a halt with Thybulle (although improving as a shooter) and Simmons (afraid on offense). I'd rather have Bertans on his contract than Simmons on his max deal. At least Bertans isn't scared. The Inside crew were calling out Ben Simmons for being scared yesterday. They are completely right!

[nate33]

A trade proposed on the Trade Board:

Washington trades: Beal, Bertans, Hutchison
Philly trades: Simmons, Thybulle, Hill, #28, 2023 1st, pick swaps in 2022 and 2024.

I think that's pretty good value! I'd probably try and flip Simmons for a top 4 pick if possible. I think Minnesota and OKC might be interested. Let's say we got Jalen Green. At #15, we draft Cooper. At #28, we draft maybe Ayayi. Move Westbrook for whatever we can, maybe a cap relief and a future pick?

Our lineup:

PG Cooper/Hill
SG Green/Ayayi
SF Thybulle/Avdija
PF Hachimura/Avdija
C Gafford/Bryant

That's a lot of good young players with upside! And they fit pretty well. They'd struggle at first because they're so young, but Cooper is a pure PG, Green is a pure #1 option scorer, Thybulle is an elite wing defender, Hachimura is on his way to being a rock solid 3rd-option scorer and versatile 2 through 5 defender, and Gafford is a great rim protector. It's basically a younger version of the Phoenix Suns.

Plus we still have the Sixers 2023 1st and two unlikely pick swaps. And we'd add whatever we got in the Westbrook trade - probably a couple of veteran contracts and maybe a late pick. I'd be excited about rebuilding around that group.

Presti is too smart to trade a Jalen Green (on a cheap deal) for Simmons. Green is arguably the player with the most upside in this draft. OKC is still in asset collecting mode. Better to find another fit alongside SGA (on a cheap contract before his eventual extension) than to tie your cap on Simmons. Rojas doesn't want non-shooters on the floor. He came from the Houston system. Those picks from Philly would be late first rounders (and we wouldn't end up swapping with Philly b/c they'd easily have better records than us).

Thybulle is the only valuable piece combing back, and he can't play with Simmons anyways. You're offense would grind to a halt with Thybulle (although improving as a shooter) and Simmons (afraid on offense). I'd rather have Bertans on his contract than Simmons on his max deal. At least Bertans isn't scared. The Inside crew were calling out Ben Simmons for being scared yesterday. They are completely right!

It all depends on what Simmons could be flipped for. I don't think his value is as low as you think. I think Minny would trade the #4 pick straight up for him. And I don't know how much OKC would want Green when they already have SGA. I think Simmons would be a real good fit for them.

But, sure, if you characterize Simmons as some type of useless cap baggage, then this trade isn't good. I just disagree with that characterization.

[Dat2U]

Not trading Beal for Simmons - absolutely wouldn't acquire Simmons using Beal just to pawn him off to a third team. I'd trade anyone else for him though because despite the clear flaws he'd be our 2nd best player behind Beal by a wide margin.

[nate33]

Not trading Beal for Simmons - absolutely wouldn't acquire Simmons using Beal just to pawn him off to a third team. I'd trade anyone else for him though because despite the clear flaws he'd be our 2nd best player behind Beal by a wide margin.

What if Beal fails to sign an extension this summer?

[SUPERBALLMAN]

A trade proposed on the Trade Board:

Washington trades: Beal, Bertans, Hutchison
Philly trades: Simmons, Thybulle, Hill, #28, 2023 1st, pick swaps in 2022 and 2024.

I think that's pretty good value! I'd probably try and flip Simmons for a top 4 pick if possible. I think Minnesota and OKC might be interested. Let's say we got Jalen Green. At #15, we draft Cooper. At #28, we draft maybe Ayayi. Move Westbrook for whatever we can, maybe a cap relief and a future pick?

Our lineup:

PG Cooper/Hill
SG Green/Ayayi
SF Thybulle/Avdija
PF Hachimura/Avdija
C Gafford/Bryant

That's a lot of good young players with upside! And they fit pretty well. They'd struggle at first because they're so young, but Cooper is a pure PG, Green is a pure #1 option scorer, Thybulle is an elite wing defender, Hachimura is on his way to being a rock solid 3rd-option scorer and versatile 2 through 5 defender, and Gafford is a great rim protector. It's basically a younger version of the Phoenix Suns.

Plus we still have the Sixers 2023 1st and two unlikely pick swaps. And we'd add whatever we got in the Westbrook trade - probably a couple of veteran contracts and maybe a late pick. I'd be excited about rebuilding around that group.

Presti is too smart to trade a Jalen Green (on a cheap deal) for Simmons. Green is arguably the player with the most upside in this draft. OKC is still in asset collecting mode. Better to find another fit alongside SGA (on a cheap contract before his eventual extension) than to tie your cap on Simmons. Rojas doesn't want non-shooters on the floor. He came from the Houston system. Those picks from Philly would be late first rounders (and we wouldn't end up swapping with Philly b/c they'd easily have better records than us).

Thybulle is the only valuable piece combing back, and he can't play with Simmons anyways. You're offense would grind to a halt with Thybulle (although improving as a shooter) and Simmons (afraid on offense). I'd rather have Bertans on his contract than Simmons on his max deal. At least Bertans isn't scared. The Inside crew were calling out Ben Simmons for being scared yesterday. They are completely right!

It all depends on what Simmons could be flipped for. I don't think his value is as low as you think. I think Minny would trade the #4 pick straight up for him. And I don't know how much OKC would want Green when they already have SGA. I think Simmons would be a real good fit for them.

But, sure, if you characterize Simmons as some type of useless cap baggage, then this trade isn't good. I just disagree with that characterization.

What is all this Simmons talk about? Did he say he wanted to be traded? Seems Philly has had a pretty good season.

IMO LeBron wanting Westbrook is a more interesting scenario.

[dckingsfan]

What is all this Simmons talk about? Did he say he wanted to be traded? Seems Philly has had a pretty good season.

IMO LeBron wanting Westbrook is a more interesting scenario.

Would that even be possible under the cap with James/Davis?

[nate33]

What is all this Simmons talk about? Did he say he wanted to be traded? Seems Philly has had a pretty good season.

IMO LeBron wanting Westbrook is a more interesting scenario.

Would that even be possible under the cap with James/Davis?

Yes, or at least it's in the ballpark. The key is that Kuzma gets a big raise to $13M. Add that to KCP's $13M and Harrell's $10M player option and it gets close to Westbrook's $44M.