Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III

[doclinkin]

^^^ Well ranted Fazer. Appreciate your contributions to the board and thread.

No matter what there will be players available who can make this team better. And given good health, no matter what we will be better. The dilemma is ultimately how much better can better be?

In general in the question of 'production vs. potential' I agree with you and I'm most often on the side of the former. Players who show they already know how to play the game ought to be more valued for their BBIQ than players who underperform but display far greater physical talents. This is where our man CCJ grows his vineyard of toldja-so gripes. Were we can select a player like JaVale and then fume and rant while his unmatched physical talents be squandered in a cinnamon munchers lack of focus, thinking his talents alone ought to make him a superstar.

The flipside however, is that you only get so many bites at that apple, and that it is easier to get pretty good than to become a champion. In the NBA truly 'good is the enemy of great'. You need superstar talent to contend at the top levels. But selecting pretty good but not dominant players lifts you out of contention for that #1 overall or top 3 talent.

Ernie's stated philosophy in the past is to take the Best TALENT Available, not best Player, because at the top end you need to swing for the fences and hope to get lucky. That lets you stockpile talents that other teams might covet, if they develop, if they pan out, if, if, if...

As Wiz fans we get driven to distraction by all that wasted talent. No question players like JaFAIL and Nick 'N1-on-5' Young were probably the most talented available players at their position. But they drove you crazy with knuckleheadery, is not mental ability also a talent? If tougher to measure.

The flipside is that with underperforming top talent you can sometimes flip it for better players undervalued by their teams: see Nene, Caron, whomever. Danny Ainge traded for a championship squad by committing to the suck and stockpiling lotto talents.

Olynyk will contribute at an NBA level. He adds something we struggle with: reliable and fairly efficient offense. He won't perform at the NBA level as he did in college, he'll be facing far tougher talent than he got used to at Gonzaga. When I look at production by players like Faried (who did perform at a high level throughout college actually, especially against top talent) I always double check their stats against how they performed vs top talent and tough teams. But I can find NOBODY that KO played against in the front court who will show at the next level. Some of his skillset looks like it will not translate, and his lack of effort on defense is concerning in a frontcourt player who should anchor your D.

But he'll be a pretty good player who will be easy to cheer for. I just don't see a championship level mismatch. He'll be too good not to play, but not necessarily the best fit with the talent and style of team we are developing. If there is no tradedown available to land us players I like better (Dieng + pick one) then I won't be too unhappy if he is the best player available, yes he will make us better. How much better does his version of better make us? And does what he add emphasize the mismatches we already have (John Wall's penetration and dish attack) or does it interfere (clogging the frontcourt instead of being effective from the midrange ala Nene)?

[Nivek]

A problem with how potential gets evaluated by both teams and draftniks is that production becomes almost a negative. If a guy is highly productive in college, he's deemed to have maxed out his potential. Generally speaking, the players most likely to improve at the pro level are guys who have produced in college, who have exhibited skill, and who have already shown improvement.

[nate33]

I agree that he will likely be a defensive liability in the pros. He may be so bad that it makes it hard for him to get floor time.

I just object to the term "one trick pony". McCollum has a pretty freaking diverse offensive arsenal. He's about as refined of an offensive player as you're ever going to find in college basketball.

He is really diverse scoring the basketball. I agree on McCollum, nate.

DX's scouting video paints a discouraging picture of McCollum as a passer. He's not a distributor per that report.

What I notice in the video, and from the times I did see him live, but definitely from stats over time is that C. J. McCollum grabs a lot of rebounds for his position. That to me is really a good sign. He and Doug McDermott are not great athletes but they are two elite volume scorers who rebound.

Nate Wolters is an elite scorer who also has a fantastic pure passer ratio--I think he will make a better transition offensively to NBA PG. I would give McCollum the nod defensively at PG, but he is a scoring guard and not really a passer.

My bad. I was talking about McDermott. I mix those names up sometimes.

[Dark Faze]

Thanks, I hope I didn't offend any of our fellow wiz posters here, I have a lot of respect for guys I tend to have differing opinions with, at the end of the day we all just want the team to get better.

The rant mostly just came from watching last nights game where every pick other than Wall simply couldn't be relied on, and I think back to that draft and how we could have Kawhi and Faried on rookie contracts today, guys who had proven NBA skills and work ethic that we passed on because of "low ceiling". It's just hard to put in words how good this team would be today had we just valued on court play/skill in that draft rather than going for homeruns.

[Ruzious]

The conference "formerly known as the Big East" is indeed the most physical conference in college bball. (It's good prep for playing at the next level.) But the Big Ten is not far behind in terms of physical play. That's why I wasn't surprised--or disappointed--that it was a rough and tumble game. I don't blame the refs for that at all. I say let them play.

BTW, I loved the toughness and persistence that that Behanan kid displayed on the boards in the second half.

As for Dieng, he's a smart, smart player. In the interviews before the game when the other Louisville players said "I play for my mom" or 'I play for my family." Dieng said 'I play for my teammates." Gotta like that.

Dieng is probably not a lottery pick but he'll get drafted in the middle of the first round and some team is going to get a player who will work very, very hard on improving his game. And eventually turn himself into a real impact player in the NBA.

I was also once again impressed by Burke, although I still wouldn't want to Zards to draft him with a top ten pick. And I'm having second thoughts on Siva. I had my doubts about whether he was an NBA-caliber, but he certainly looked like one on the big stage last night.

Will the Louisville women beat UConn tonight for a 'Ville sweep? Stay tuned.

I totally agree on Siva, DCZ.

I wanted not to like Burke, but that guy is a monster. Go ahead with the Chris Paul comparisons because he does play at another level. On that block at the rim and with the way he wills a team to win that is too good not to acknowledge.

The thing impressed me is Siva is not too far off that same level Burke is. Siva could be quicker than Shane Larkin. Siva has handles Steve Nash would be content with--I haven't seen a better ball handling display then between Siva and Burke. It was one of the greatest NCAA games I've seen. Siva gets to the basket like Tony Parker. Burke earned POTY but Siva should have earned a great deal of attention from scouts. He belongs in the NBA. He has a warrior mentality, just like Burke. Both of them play a whole lot smarter than Russ Smith.

An aside: Siva is a Samoan descendant. I wonder if anyone besides me thinks Siva looks like a light-skinned, smaller Dwyane Wade?

My son kept asking if Russ Smith is JR Smith's brother. I can see some resemblance, but I think Russ Smith looks a whole bunch in the face like Robert Griffin III.

Siva and Smith were a brilliant combo in Louisville's 40 minutes of pressure basketball, but they're not built for the NBA. Siva won't be able to score in the NBA. He's tiny, he can't shoot, and he's awkward trying to finish. And he's really not a great distributor for a PG. Smith has a good chance to make a team if a coach is willing to be creative with a 6' shooting guard who doesn't have a good jump shot. But he hasn't shown any ability to play the point.

Behanan might be the best athlete on that team - an above the rim player who got overlooked for the most part - someone worth following his progress. Dieng surprised with his passing ability. Who knew he could set up his teammates like that? It made a big difference.

[nate33]

I was just thinking about how horrible or bench is.

Our top 6 players: Wall, Beal, Webster, Ariza, Nene and Okafor are rock solid (when healthy). Those guys, if they were backed by an average crew of bench players, would win 50 games. Unfortunately, our bench is absolutely terrible. Think about it. Other than Booker, everyone on our bench could be replaced by a D-Leaguer and nobody would notice the difference. (Booker is better than a D-Leaguer, but not by all that much. He should be a 10th or 11th man, not our 7th best player.)

EG needs to dump Singleton, Vesely and Seraphin as soon as possible and try to reload with 2nd round picks and minimum salary vets. Just about anybody would be better than these guys. (I wouldn't be opposed to keeping Seraphin as a project, but we can't rely on him.). Basically, we need to acquire a 7th, 8th and 9th man. Booker can be our 10th, Temple our 11th and Seraphin our 12th.

EG really needs to figure out how to acquire another pick in this draft, preferably a late 1st. Can we trade Singleton + our NY 2nd rounder pick + $3M cash to get a pick in the mid 20's? I'd love to take a high quality 3rd guard with our lotto pick (Burke), a defensive big with the late 1st (Dieng or Withey), and a stretch four with our high 2nd (McDermott or Ryan Kelly)

[B-easy]

What do ya'll think of oladipo?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I agree that he will likely be a defensive liability in the pros. He may be so bad that it makes it hard for him to get floor time.

I just object to the term "one trick pony". McCollum has a pretty freaking diverse offensive arsenal. He's about as refined of an offensive player as you're ever going to find in college basketball.

He is really diverse scoring the basketball. I agree on McCollum, nate.

DX's scouting video paints a discouraging picture of McCollum as a passer. He's not a distributor per that report.

What I notice in the video, and from the times I did see him live, but definitely from stats over time is that C. J. McCollum grabs a lot of rebounds for his position. That to me is really a good sign. He and Doug McDermott are not great athletes but they are two elite volume scorers who rebound.

Nate Wolters is an elite scorer who also has a fantastic pure passer ratio--I think he will make a better transition offensively to NBA PG. I would give McCollum the nod defensively at PG, but he is a scoring guard and not really a passer.

My bad. I was talking about McDermott. I mix those names up sometimes.

Besides McDermott and McCollum there is also a PG named Ray McCallum.

McCallum played for his dad at U. Detroit. I don't think he'll be drafted but he's a very talented player in his own right. McCallum and Isaiah Canaan probably didn't help their draft stock staying another year. McCallum might as well come back his senior season.

[FAH1223]

What do ya'll think of oladipo?

Tony Allen with a jumpshot.

My little brother played against Victor in the Summer Leagues around PG County couple years back when they all graduated high school.

[B-easy]

What do ya'll think of oladipo?

Tony Allen with a jumpshot.

My little brother played against Victor in the Summer Leagues around PG County couple years back when they all graduated high school.

isn't that really good, like all star level good. I think he might be a nice 6th man, our starting 5 will be really solid.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

To me, its clear. this is how we should go with our first.
Bennett, Olynyk, Len, Burke or trade back (NOT OUT).

I need some convincing on Olynyk, really bothered at guys these days that are overage when they were successful and not much preceding that, or guys like Zeller who didn't really improve anywhere near as much as expected. I like your other three targets but Olynyk scares me.

Huh? Man guys need to stop this notion that players can't get better. Especially bigs. Faried was a 4 year college player that didn't shine until this third season. Victor Oladipo wasn't even on mocks last year and he's 21 in May. Kemba Walker made a HUGE leap in his third season and is a very solid NBA player for the Cats.

I don't understand how people look at Olynyk and see "low ceiling". How is a guy with historically high TS%/PER with an NBA body low ceiling? Lol. If he can translate his skills to the NBA he's going to be a really good player. It's really crazy how every single scout says he can get stronger, is a good size already, is clearly the most skilled big, did EVERYTHING you could ask of him during his Jr year, including hosting huge numbers against Wichita which was clearly better than advertised, and yet still slide dude to 14 on mocks, while guys like Len are underachieving like crazy.

I hate more than anything when bigs try to use guards as an excuse for not executing. A good big is going to dominate. There's no question. People tried to excuse Perry Jones III's numbers for bad guard play. Yea, the guard play was terrible at Baylor but a good big is going to find a way to put in work. Look at Dwight Howard. Everyone complained about how the Magic didn't know how to get him the ball. He goes to the Lakers with Steve Nash and Kobe friggin Bryant and he's still struggling to create inside.

I'm just getting tired of the "I need to be sold on Olynyk". Good size, did everything you could ask from him, he can get even stronger, clearly the most skilled big man.

I'm really upset with the way guys not only on this board but scouts as well have been evaluating the talent this year. NBA mock sites have been schizophrenic. A guy like Deing is slotted 8 slights lower than friggin James Michael McAdoo.

Can we for once look at actual basketball skill and what was displayed on the court instead of "potential" for once? I agree that you want to get a superstar. But sometimes potential is obvious and sometimes its hyperbolic. Potential you reach for looks like Nerlens Noel. It looks like John Wall. Otherwise lets not waste a pick and get the Kenneth Farieds, Kawhi Leonards, and Kelly Olynyks of the world and not waste our pick.

Sorry for the rant, I just desperately want this team to get better

What rant? I'll be happy as heck if Olynyk is the Wizards pick. He did get better and that bodes well for his future IMO.

Len is younger by two years but Olynk had the highest PER, he converted well over 60% of his FGs, and he is athletic in transition even if he's not a true 5. This year the Canadian ballers shined. He is the son of a coach. Olynyk grew up playing PG. At worst, he'll be a Mehmet Okur-type player. Brad Miller and prime Otis Thorpe come to mind when I think of Olynyk's style. He's not as strong or athletic as Thorpe but he is similarly a 4/5. Best of all, Olynyk is smart. He already has an accounting degree and will pursue an MBA. This is a player who has already figured it out. He will maximize his talents. Who knows what potential players will do (but Len definitely has higher potential and Alex can stifle teams defensively at times.)

The reason that Olynyk is a decent to very good draft pick is even if he doesn't improve from where he is, he is already capable of be a starting NBA PF/C. He will be limited on the board and some on defense, but could be a monster on offense because he figures out how to get his shot off. Guys like Divac and Splitter are very effective and Olynyk gets up better than they did/do.

Dark Faze, I like one or two players better but I like KO.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I wonder why no one seems to think Zeke Marshall doesn't belong in round one?

He got a whole lot better his senior season. Olynyk, as a redshirt junior had the same amount of time to prepare for the NBA and both guys are ready for the next level IMO.

[The Consiglieri]

To me, its clear. this is how we should go with our first.
Bennett, Olynyk, Len, Burke or trade back (NOT OUT).

I need some convincing on Olynyk, really bothered at guys these days that are overage when they were successful and not much preceding that, or guys like Zeller who didn't really improve anywhere near as much as expected. I like your other three targets but Olynyk scares me.

Huh? Man guys need to stop this notion that players can't get better. Especially bigs. Faried was a 4 year college player that didn't shine until this third season. Victor Oladipo wasn't even on mocks last year and he's 21 in May. Kemba Walker made a HUGE leap in his third season and is a very solid NBA player for the Cats.

I don't understand how people look at Olynyk and see "low ceiling". How is a guy with historically high TS%/PER with an NBA body low ceiling? Lol. If he can translate his skills to the NBA he's going to be a really good player. It's really crazy how every single scout says he can get stronger, is a good size already, is clearly the most skilled big, did EVERYTHING you could ask of him during his Jr year, including hosting huge numbers against Wichita which was clearly better than advertised, and yet still slide dude to 14 on mocks, while guys like Len are underachieving like crazy.

I hate more than anything when bigs try to use guards as an excuse for not executing. A good big is going to dominate. There's no question. People tried to excuse Perry Jones III's numbers for bad guard play. Yea, the guard play was terrible at Baylor but a good big is going to find a way to put in work. Look at Dwight Howard. Everyone complained about how the Magic didn't know how to get him the ball. He goes to the Lakers with Steve Nash and Kobe friggin Bryant and he's still struggling to create inside.

I'm just getting tired of the "I need to be sold on Olynyk". Good size, did everything you could ask from him, he can get even stronger, clearly the most skilled big man.

I'm really upset with the way guys not only on this board but scouts as well have been evaluating the talent this year. NBA mock sites have been schizophrenic. A guy like Deing is slotted 8 slights lower than friggin James Michael McAdoo.

Can we for once look at actual basketball skill and what was displayed on the court instead of "potential" for once? I agree that you want to get a superstar. But sometimes potential is obvious and sometimes its hyperbolic. Potential you reach for looks like Nerlens Noel. It looks like John Wall. Otherwise lets not waste a pick and get the Kenneth Farieds, Kawhi Leonards, and Kelly Olynyks of the world and not waste our pick.

Sorry for the rant, I just desperately want this team to get better

As someone who huffs and puffs too. Let me explain myself. My argument isn't that a player can't get better, it's that when players only appear to get better as their competition gets weaker, there may be a problem. The same issue is indirectly referenced in outliers when Malcolm Gladwell analyzes a world juniors world cup in hockey, replacing the names of the prospects from Canada and the Czech Republic with their birth dates. The trend he notes is that an insanely high percentage of the top prospects at these competitions (and other youth world cups in soccer etc) have birthdays in a very specific time of the year. The reason is simple, the players were the oldest in their "class" when they were developed, all the way to their childhood. Not surprisingly that funneled them to better coaching, camps, observations from scouts etc. The trend is that the older you are, versus the prospects your competing with, especially as a kid, but also as a teenager in development etc, the better you look. THis is why Muhammad's age being 20 rather than 19 is such a big deal, this is why the Expos/Nats essentially fired Bowden, in addition to his horrible management, one of the prized prospects he signed turned out to not even have the same name, and was four or five years older than advertised.

There is a fundamental difference between Bradley Beal and Anthony Davis killing it as 18 year olds with Florida and Kentucky, and Russ Smith, and Olynyk killing it as a junior and a senior. That's my issue. I have no trouble imagining that he can learn and improve over time. My problem is, what does it mean when a player doesn't improve until yes, perhaps he's learned a lot, but also, until he's playing against competition that often is much younger than him?

We've already seen several guys that were essentially non-entities as freshman and sophmores, blow up as juniors and seniors, get drafted based on that, and then stink compared to their younger compatriots. I don't know if Olynyk will get it done or not, but I know his lack of impact when he was younger IS a concern (additionally the competition is a bit of a concern, though not as much as it would be in say, the MAC, or the Ivy League etc). My post was asking for reasons why we shouldn't be worried about Olynyk. You listed some, but you also ignored why I had my concern, and focused on a straw man I was never constructing in the first place (though I can see why you might have assumed that was my issue).

And for the record, Kenneth Faried was killing it from day one. He wasn't invisible as a freshman, and he started to explode as a sophomore. Olynyk didn't have a season similar to Faried's sophomore year till he was a senior, and Faried's freshman season was about 3x as impressive as Olynyk's freshman year, their sophomore years weren't even remotely comparable.

Apples and oranges.

As for interest in McAdoo, and the like, it's much easier to get a player with the frame, athleticism, and potential of a McAdoo, to develop into an NBA player, then a player without said athleticism, frame and potential. All the while there are going to be innumerable prospect carcasses on the road of prospects with "potential" who failed to ever be anything more than a frame/body/explosiveness/and potential, but the supply of good and great college players who didn't have the athleticism, and body to succeed in the NBA despite those skills will be Walking Dead sized carcasses in comparison (even moreso if we're talking good-great-star NBA player, and not simply, roster spots) and absolutely dwarf the former.

That's just reality. I love the small school, unknown player success stories too, but they're the rare exceptions, not the rule, in terms of what proves dominant, and effective at the next level.

[sfam]

I was just thinking about how horrible or bench is.

Our top 6 players: Wall, Beal, Webster, Ariza, Nene and Okafor are rock solid (when healthy). Those guys, if they were backed by an average crew of bench players, would win 50 games. Unfortunately, our bench is absolutely terrible. Think about it. Other than Booker, everyone on our bench could be replaced by a D-Leaguer and nobody would notice the difference. (Booker is better than a D-Leaguer, but not by all that much. He should be a 10th or 11th man, not our 7th best player.)

EG needs to dump Singleton, Vesely and Seraphin as soon as possible and try to reload with 2nd round picks and minimum salary vets. Just about anybody would be better than these guys. (I wouldn't be opposed to keeping Seraphin as a project, but we can't rely on him.). Basically, we need to acquire a 7th, 8th and 9th man. Booker can be our 10th, Temple our 11th and Seraphin our 12th.

EG really needs to figure out how to acquire another pick in this draft, preferably a late 1st. Can we trade Singleton + our NY 2nd rounder pick + $3M cash to get a pick in the mid 20's? I'd love to take a high quality 3rd guard with our lotto pick (Burke), a defensive big with the late 1st (Dieng or Withey), and a stretch four with our high 2nd (McDermott or Ryan Kelly)

While I largely agree with your diagnosis - we don't have an NBA quality bench, and agree with your prescription, there is absolutely no way EG does this. He would be overtly admitting to gross incompetence in his recent draft history. This approach would only happen with new new GM.

Edit: On top of this, EG seems to look at second rounders as throw away picks. We aren't gonna be the team that finds a diamond in the rough in the mid to late second round.

[The Consiglieri]

Absolutely, I have no problem with people posting what they'd do, but we also need to admit reality. There's not a chance in hell that EG will own the fact that he basically botched the entirety of the three most important drafts in the last thirty years for the Boulez other than the uncontested lay ups that were Wall and Beal (although I am pissed he never considered Drummond, Beal made more sense after we shipped out our Mount Rushmore of Knuckleheads considering the smoke about Drummond being a lazy, disinterested player), including a player that could have changed everything in Faried that was sitting right there, when he drafted a player that reminds me of Oladipo (couldn't shoot a lick till his final season, far more famous for his defense up to then), which is also why I want nothing to do with Oladipo. Too small of a sample size of production in terms of scoring productivity.

What I'd rather have is a trade down for multiple '14 draft picks unless Len or Bennett is there at #7-#10 wherever we pick.

[Mizerooskie]

On the bench talk, once you get past the first round, you really shouldn't be looking for diamonds in the rough, but for guys that can fill a specific role.

Nate hinted at it, but look for a stretch four, or spot-up outside shooter (McDermott, Dekker, Bullock). Look for an energy defender that can defend multiple positions (Nash). Look for a back up point guard that can run an offense (Kabongo, Brown, McCallum). Look for a high-motor interior banger that can rebound and defend (Payne, Nogueira). And so on and so forth. If you sign such a player, define his role clearly and develop him into that role. That's how you'll get value in the second round.

Don't try to find and develop the next Gilbert Arenas. It'll put too much pressure and responsibility on a guy that more than likely doesn't have the skills to handle it.

[Rafael122]

I was just thinking about how horrible or bench is.

Our top 6 players: Wall, Beal, Webster, Ariza, Nene and Okafor are rock solid (when healthy). Those guys, if they were backed by an average crew of bench players, would win 50 games. Unfortunately, our bench is absolutely terrible. Think about it. Other than Booker, everyone on our bench could be replaced by a D-Leaguer and nobody would notice the difference. (Booker is better than a D-Leaguer, but not by all that much. He should be a 10th or 11th man, not our 7th best player.)

EG needs to dump Singleton, Vesely and Seraphin as soon as possible and try to reload with 2nd round picks and minimum salary vets. Just about anybody would be better than these guys. (I wouldn't be opposed to keeping Seraphin as a project, but we can't rely on him.). Basically, we need to acquire a 7th, 8th and 9th man. Booker can be our 10th, Temple our 11th and Seraphin our 12th.

EG really needs to figure out how to acquire another pick in this draft, preferably a late 1st. Can we trade Singleton + our NY 2nd rounder pick + $3M cash to get a pick in the mid 20's? I'd love to take a high quality 3rd guard with our lotto pick (Burke), a defensive big with the late 1st (Dieng or Withey), and a stretch four with our high 2nd (McDermott or Ryan Kelly)

Thunder would be a good trade target seeing as how they will have 2 first round picks.

[queridiculo]

Absolutely, I have no problem with people posting what they'd do, but we also need to admit reality. There's not a chance in hell that EG will own the fact that he basically botched the entirety of the three most important drafts in the last thirty years for the Boulez other than the uncontested lay ups that were Wall and Beal...

That's my biggest concern heading into the offseason with Grunfeld.

What we've seen over the years is that he has a tendency to fall in love with his picks and will hold on for dear life to exonerate himself.

Singleton, Vesely, Booker and this years version of Seraphin do not belong into an NBA rotation, but will Grunfeld have the guts to make the necessary changes? My guess is that he won't, and that's a shame because this draft, while shallow with blue chippers, strikes me as very deep with role players.

[queridiculo]

Thunder would be a good trade target seeing as how they will have 2 first round picks.

I really don't see the Thunder giving up any of their picks for marginal NBA talent in the final year of their contracts.

Very much like the Spurs, Oklahoma understands that the draft is an opportunity to add complimentary players, and to upgrade the overall talent of their roster while committing a minimum amount of salary.

For small market team with limited external revenue opportunities like Oklahoma that's the only way to remain competitive, and they will continue to follow that model.

I see them packaging their picks to move up, or deferring their selection to next year by acquiring picks for the 2015 draft before involving them in a deal for other NBA players.

[The Consiglieri]

What's even more frustrating and scary to me is that he'll look at that collection of scrubs and 12th men on the bench, and say, "we're young enough, no reason to get younger and more naïve when we're playoff bound in '14," and deal the pick or some half-witted dumbarse trade like GMGM did with the Caps two weeks ago, trading a prospect at least as good as Backstrom was when he was drafted for a winger w/4 freaking goals for playoff revenue, in other words, '09 moron deal redux.