Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part VII

[hands11]

sfam, if u want to swing for the fences for "upside" gold, then the pick should be Len not Bennett.

And seemingly Noel depending on who you ask.

I would also consider VO, Burke and McLemore in that swing for the fences group.

So swing for the fences: Len, Noel, Burke, VO, McLemore

Play it safe, Otto and Zeller.

[dobrojim]

I think it's more meaningful to ask the team trying for its fifth ring.

And you would be wrong. By definition a team trying for a fifth ring isnt representative of the league as a whole.

Imagine that we made a bet, looking at all lottery picks for the last few years. I pay you $100 for each player who exceeds fan expectations. You pay me $100 for each player who falls below fan expectations. Who do you think wins that bet?

most fans aren't well informed. if that's your point, it's a good one.
Lessons can be learned from both mistakes as well as successes assuming
the right analysis is done on what happened in either case.

[nate33]

So here's what I'd do on draft day: If Noel or Porter (in that order) are on the board, take them. If not, take Oladipo. Then open up the bidding. Clearly, Phoenix and Minnesota would be interested, and other teams might as well. Maybe even Milwaukee sweetens their deal with something in addition to Ilyasova & 15 (which should be the absolute minimum in that deal). If the mocks are to be believed, pretty much anyone from PHX (#5) to Philly (#11) should/might have Zeller on the board to offer as the basis of a trade, so there is at least a chance of a bidding war.

And the best part is - if you lose that game of chicken and no one offers enough value - you still end up with Oladipo. Not a bad consolation prize. Maybe a touch too cute if I really wanted Zeller all along (and would be fine if they took him at #3), but at least you're not stuck with a guy you don't really want.

This is a sound strategy. If the mocks are right that everyone likes Oladipo in the 4-6 range and Zeller is in the 7-10 range, then it makes sense to draft Oladipo with our pick (assuming Porter and Noel are gone) and then open up bidding. If we can trade down to 6 or so, still land Zeller, and pick up something extra in the process, that would be great. If we get "stuck" with Oladipo, I wouldn't be upset about it.

You gotta believe that Minnesota is going to push real hard for Oladipo. If Zeller lasts until #9, there would definitely be a workable trade there. Hell, just about everyone picking 4 through 9 could really use a quality shooting guard with great character and work ethic.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Names not talked up enough?

Reggie Bullock, Mike Muscala, Erick Green, Isaiah Canaan, Phil Pressey, Nate Wolters, Trevor Mbekwe, DJ Stephens, Zeke Marshall, Juvonte Reddic, Jack Cooley, Lorenzo Brown, Brandon Paul, Michael Snaer, Khalid Wyatt, Jackie Carmichael, CJ Leslie (hunch says Leslie and Brown are on Wizards draft radar), Kadjii, Hill

I think there could be another Arenas, Millsap, Boozer in round two. Just like we're watching # 46 Danny Green this playoffs, in 4 or 5 years I foresee at least three or four of these players on rosters.

Of course that is true CCJ

There are a lot of names there. Most will be back ups. Some will eventually earn a starting role.

Its a lot easier for that to be the projection for a list that big then it is to pick from these top picks who will cost more and have a ton more pressure on them.

It those kind of players that fix so well on experience teams that have a great roster they can plug into. They come in, focus on a limited role they can do well, get tones of good stuff from winning players, then some grow into legit starters. If they land on good teams, it can be an ideal situation for them. If they land on bad teams, not so much so.

Specifically: despite the hype Porter and other lottery picks are getting there are other players who if picked in the lottery would be as good. I said lottery for Millsap, not Sheldon Williams. You might think my post above is easy but Millsap went 47 when I said that's not right.

I can't begin to explain how I feel about power conference players and certain international players being overhyped. The only reason it will take the above years is where they will be picked won't guarantee contracts. Many will get cut or have to go overseas like Green, Neal, or Temple. It's not necessarily they improved, either.

I know what I am saying and with exception of draft gurus like Dat, mhd. Ruz, rockymac. doclinkin, Nivek. fugop, and a few others; I often feel like my opinions get hit with reflexive resistance.

If I guessed about Kevin's system, I bet YODA probably ranks 50 or more prospects worthy of first round selection. That means there are others left off like Danny Green was on draft night.

I try to predict the undrafted who will have success. I think the Spurs have three stars and smarts to get value role players by tapping in to players who were talented bu passed over. (rockymac posted about this). There are a ton of players who can succeed in the right spot.

[hands11]

I really wanted Cody Zeller last season, less than MKG but more than Beal had Cody declared.

Yet, this season I like Olynyk more than Cody.

Quick, someone send this Zeller video to Ves because that is the game Ves is supposed to have.

If they landed Zeller and moved Ves, that wouldn't suck at all.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I really wanted Cody Zeller last season, less than MKG but more than Beal had Cody declared.

Yet, this season I like Olynyk more than Cody.

Quick, someone send this Zeller video to Ves because that is the game Ves is supposed to have.

If they landed Zeller and moved Ves, that wouldn't suck at all.

.

If they landed Olynyk and his style of play was so good he and Ves could play together and excel that would be IMO better. It would team build and raise Vesely's worth and up the return on a #6 pick.

All Zeller does is displace/ replace Vesely, who would be given away as a failure.

I redeem the nickel deposits on plastic containers. Why throw away a recyclable? Why not try to salvage Vesely?

[dobrojim]

[snip]

If I guessed about Kevin's system, I bet YODA probably ranks 50 or more prospects worthy of first round selection. That means there are others left off like Danny Green was on draft night.

I try to predict the undrafted who will have success. I think the Spurs have three stars and smarts to ge value this way. (rockymac posted about this). There are a ton of players who can succeed in the right spot.

OK, nivek. Just curious how many players YODA says are first rnd picks this year.
Or on average for the last 5-10 years?

I remember that you phrase YODA's conclusions as "would be 1st rnd picks in most years".
So in an average year, does YODA call more or less than 30 players first round picks?
I think we can agree that on average only the top 30 players in an average year
should be rated as first rounders. Or is there something about YODA's logic that
I'm not seeing or understanding?

[payitforward]

I think the top pick should be Porter, Olynyk, Len or Zeller in that order. A trade down for Olynyk is what I like best.

The Leonard/Faried players are going to be Olynyk, Franklin, Wolters, DJ Stephens, and Zeke Marshall. Erick Green and Isaiah Canaan could have some Arenas and Fisher NBA moments. Karasev, Caldwell-Pope, and Crabbe seem like winners. Beware of Shabazz Muhammed. Burke is overrated. Noel is a risky injury pick.

For what the Wizards need, Olynyk and Wolters provide what is lacking seamlessly. If the Wizards wish to trade Seraphin, Carmichael, Mbekwe and Iverson get dirty on the boards and don't shot jack .

I could easily see a trade down for Olynyk working out. I agree w/ you that he can be a 10+ year good NBA player. As to Caldwell-Pope, he's moving up the DR mock; he has a shot to be the best rookie SG this year!

I like Porter, but I'd be very satisfied if the #3 pick got us picks that turned into Caldwell-Pope and Olynyk.

Wolters and some of the other guys you mention are also outstanding prospects.

If we had a GM who knew how to pick, we could turn our #3 pick into a terrific bunch of talent. If we had a GM who understood how talent-starved we are, he might try to do that. But we have a GM who thinks he is way astute if he puts together an average team (at a higher-than-average salary cost, btw). So that's not likely to happen.

Hence I'm stuck and just hope we pick Otto Porter; I feel pretty optimistic that he'll be a significantly better than average 3 in the league. Then of course we'll waste our #38 and throw away our #54 in the usual Ernie manner.

[Zonkerbl]

Just got back from a two week trip abroad. I see on bullets forever that Bennett got measured when he visited the Zards with an 8'9" standing reach.

I bet that caused a ****storm. What are your guyses thoughts?

[payitforward]

...more accurate to say that many prospects get overrated (and underrated). More get overrated than under, I think.

Yep -- and a lot of them get overrated because they can "jump out of the gym" and the equivalent. I.e. because of athleticism that hasn't been borne out in productivity numbers.

Joe Alexander jumps to mind. And he did "jump out of the gym": straight out; he wasn't even good in the D League.

[WizarDynasty]

We absolutely should be going for gold with this pick. Playing it safe pretty much equals opportunity lost. We may never the the next "right piece to add" - we can get that key building block now.

And again, if EG thinks Porter is the guy who will be that impact player, I'm fine with the pick. If he drafts Porter for the reasons you state, he is in essence looking for a comfortable home in the middle of the playoffs, not a contender.

Reading this I keep thinking about the movie Raging Bull "I coulda been a contenda".

I agree with you're general premise. I just doubt that Bennett is the "gold" of this draft. IMO Porter does everything Bennett does, but also excels defensively, and has great size for his position rather than being undersized. Bennett's value is as a stretch 4 and his outside shooting. IMO we can get Porter at 3 as our starting SF and building block, and at 38 Erik Murphy the stretch 4 off the bench.

We'd have the foundation of an excellent perimeter and defense, with plenty of shooters to spread the floor (Beal, Porter, Webster, Murphy, Price, Ariza). Although I see Ariza gone after this season, or moved before for another player.

While I believe Bennett is the right pick, I don't fancy myself knowledgeable enough to know. I hope the scouts and EG are doing a far more thorough job than people here. If Porter is the "Gold" choice, again, I'm fine wiht that. I wanna be rooting for a contenda!

sfam trust your gut instincts, you are right. bennett is definitely second best prospect and way better than Porter for the wizards. If you could go back in time, 90 percent of the posters here bashed me for thinking that Derrick Williams was a horrible pick. If only you could go back in the threads. The highest ranked posters here had convinced everyone that Jae Crowder should be drafted in lottery. and Everyone here hated Demarcus cousins...Last year everyone hated Drummond and Barnes.
Porter in a good draft glue guy drafted in the early 20's. He played in the princeton system....he is a system player, that can't challenge bigmen in the paint and he is suppose to be a small forward. Don't let people fool you. Len has no lower body strength and he hates contact...he will bust if drafted high....Zeller can't finish through contact and is soft...he will bust....your instincts on watching how well he finished against NBA strength is well founded. zeller is a decent bench player on a good team just like his brother.
This board is notorious for its lack of understanding...the value of finishing through contact. the last player they have seen do it consistently was Gilbert Arenas now john wall. they have never seen a front court player finish through contact consistently which is why they settle for mediocrity like OP, Zeller, and Len. They have never had a front court player average over 500 FTM a season for the last 20 years.

Wizard fans have never seen a front court player on their team get close to 500 FTM a season

[payitforward]

[snip]

If I guessed about Kevin's system, I bet YODA probably ranks 50 or more prospects worthy of first round selection.

OK, nivek. Just curious how many players YODA says are first rnd picks this year.
Or on average for the last 5-10 years

I seriously doubt YODA overestimates the number. More likely it culls it. And finds some who aren't on it but should be.

Any system based on real productivity will do that.

[hands11]

Didn't you say -- yesterday! -- that at this point there was no reason to write more than a 1-or-2-sentence post about this draft?

That said, you make some -- to me -- odd points. I've highlighted some of them above.

1. To start with you seem to think the Wizards are a "good" team (lets just define that as "above average" -- can't get more generous than that can you?). We went .500 in the period when you seem to think we'd "turned a corner." We're not a good team. We are -- with all our personnel -- an average team. That's what you want to consolidate?

2. Webster is not a Wizard. Webster is an unrestricted free agent. Please hear this clearly. Martell Webster is not part of the Washington Wizards squad. He's not on the team. Will we sign him? Sure, if we give him a deal as good as anyone else offers (ok maybe just almost as good), he might well be on the team. But that might not happen.

3. You keep including Okafor and Ariza in our "core." Assuming Trevor picks up his option (perhaps he's already done so), we'll have him this year. At that point he will be an unrestricted free agent. You can't project the future of the team w/ him as a key piece, because you don't know if he'll be around.

4. Okafor, who as a Wizard had his best season in several years, is signed for the coming year. At the end of the year, he is an unrestricted free agent. We have no option, no nothing. As with Ariza, you can't project based on him.

5. We have three good players -- three not seven -- that we know we'll have for 2014-15:

a. Wall (if he demonstrates in a full season that he really has made the jump he certainly seemed to have made),

b. Beal (I have less doubt about his future than Wall's), and

c. Nene, who has had repeated injury problems the last few years. You can deny that all you want, but... why would you? Maybe he'll be able to average 30+ minutes in 60+ games, but if so it'll be the first time in many years. Nene has played more than 2500 minutes in only 2 seasons since his 2d year! The last time was 4 years ago.

Anyone who thinks the Wizards are in some kind "stand pat" or "consolidate" place is dreaming.

PIF

I am well aware of all those things you posted so you could have saved yourself some time to just assume that.

Also, as for how good they were, its all a matter of what you focus on. When Wall, Beal and Nene all started, they were very good. When all three were simple healthy enough to play, they were good. And along the way, they took down just about every playoff team. They beat the best of the best and the tier under that.

But their final record and small sample size of having everyone healthy will always be the counter argument to that. But for me, that is backward thinking. Wall isn't likely to miss the start of the season. He is much more likely to be the player we saw once he found his jumper. Actually, I expect him to had added even more. Beal is a question to remain healthy, but when healthy, Beal is a full on beast. I expect him to have better ball handling which means he can create more. And I expect he is really focused on his body and his ankles this offseason. I expect two full on beast in those two next year. Top 5 at their positions. Thats a ton right there along. You add Nene and Okafor to that group and sorry, thats a solid core in anyones book. Now add Trevor A, he isn't opting out. And Webster is loves the team and wants to be here. Sorry, but that is a legit core to a team.

As for consolidating, that is an option at PF if they go with Zeller. They would need to clean up on isle 5 meaning Singleton and Ves need to go. Zeller can already do everything you would hope Ves could do if he got better. Taking him would mean you busted with the #6 in 2011, but we already know that. I think Ves can still redeem himself, but its likely going to take two more years and that means on another team. Unless he magically finds a jumper like Wall and Beal did. Anything is possible.

As for Webster, he loves it here. As long as they don't jam up the rotations at his position and they want him, he is as much as already signed. He has made that more then clear.

As for how good they are when healthy, if you don't see it you don't see it.

Wall, Beal, Webster, Trevor A, Nene and Okafor is a very legit group. Add better quality backing up at SG, PF and C and they would clearly be at least a 2nd round team. And that about as far as you can project most teams. Even SA doesn't win it all every year. Actually its been 5 years since they made it to the finals.

You add a VO, Zeller or maybe a Len or Noel, and that group looks even better.

Assuming Trevor A is gone is not something I am willing to do. I see no reason he wouldn't stick around if they make some serious playoff noise next year with a team that is going to be there again the year after.

[hands11]

Sometimes the safe play is the best play. We were here before in 2011. Ves was the swing for the fences pick. The safe play would be been a trade down and pick Nikola or trade up for Kanter.

I can't believe you wrote this. The "safe play" would have been to draft well.

Why trade down when we could have made the obvious picks of Kawhi Leonard and Kenneth Faried.

I suppose trading down might have gotten us another pick. But we could have had Chandler Parsons in Round 2, or if you think that's asking too much how about Jon Leuer, Darius Morris, Josh Harrelson, LaVoy Allen, DeAndre Liggins, E'Twaun Moore, or Isaiah Thomas? All those guys have shown that they can play in this league.

Didn't want a 3d rookie? How about doing what the SA Spurs did and taking Davis Bertans (that's what the San Antonio Spurs did -- you think they draft well in round 2??).

There is always and only one "safe play" in the draft, and that is to pick the best player. Our problem is that we have a 28-win-a-year-for-a-decade GM who is incapable of doing that in any but the most obvious case.

Faried was drafted 22nd. Nikola was taken 16th. That is why I mentioned a trade down. That is how you maximize your #6 pick and get more for it while getting the players you really want.

As for picking the best players, we picked Wall and Beal. Looks like they are going to work out just fine as franchise players. Kevin seems like a decent pick for where he was taken and other team liked him as well.

Since Ted took over a owner, they have done pretty well remolding this team. Its just that 2011 draft was a real stinker. Some here were actually ok with it at the time. I didn't like it. Then as a fan I hoped for the best, but nope. Doesn't seem to be working out. At least we sucked and got Beal the next year.

[hands11]

So here's what I'd do on draft day: If Noel or Porter (in that order) are on the board, take them. If not, take Oladipo. Then open up the bidding. Clearly, Phoenix and Minnesota would be interested, and other teams might as well. Maybe even Milwaukee sweetens their deal with something in addition to Ilyasova & 15 (which should be the absolute minimum in that deal). If the mocks are to be believed, pretty much anyone from PHX (#5) to Philly (#11) should/might have Zeller on the board to offer as the basis of a trade, so there is at least a chance of a bidding war.

And the best part is - if you lose that game of chicken and no one offers enough value - you still end up with Oladipo. Not a bad consolation prize. Maybe a touch too cute if I really wanted Zeller all along (and would be fine if they took him at #3), but at least you're not stuck with a guy you don't really want.

This is a sound strategy. If the mocks are right that everyone likes Oladipo in the 4-6 range and Zeller is in the 7-10 range, then it makes sense to draft Oladipo with our pick (assuming Porter and Noel are gone) and then open up bidding. If we can trade down to 6 or so, still land Zeller, and pick up something extra in the process, that would be great. If we get "stuck" with Oladipo, I wouldn't be upset about it.

You gotta believe that Minnesota is going to push real hard for Oladipo. If Zeller lasts until #9, there would definitely be a workable trade there. Hell, just about everyone picking 4 through 9 could really use a quality shooting guard with great character and work ethic.

Which is the types of moves I have been talking about, only I wouldn't make it dependent on Otto not being there. I would consider the same types of moves using Noel or Otto with the target actually being VO, Zeller or Len.

[closg00]

Who wants to take odds on the Cavs taking Porter at pick #1? I'd give it 60/40 in-favor of the Cav's taking Porter 1st.

[hands11]

I really wanted Cody Zeller last season, less than MKG but more than Beal had Cody declared.

Yet, this season I like Olynyk more than Cody.

Quick, someone send this Zeller video to Ves because that is the game Ves is supposed to have.

If they landed Zeller and moved Ves, that wouldn't suck at all.

.

If they landed Olynyk and his style of play was so good he and Ves could play together and excel that would be IMO better. It would team build and raise Vesely's worth and up the return on a #6 pick.

All Zeller does is displace/ replace Vesely, who would be given away as a failure.

I redeem the nickel deposits on plastic containers. Why throw away a recyclable? Why not try to salvage Vesely?

Clearly you would want to salvage Ves if you could. But sometimes, you just have to cut your loses and move forward. You can't wait around for ever on players who are not showing the basic improvement you need to see. Come on. 31% from the FT line ? And that's down from 53% the year before.

Hey, I wanted them to salvage Dray last year for the same reason so I get what you're saying. But they took their lumps instead. I don't want to give up on Ves, but sometimes you have too. Its a tough call.

I'm not saying they should or will pick Zeller and cut Ves, just that it is a decent option. Because from where I am sitting ( I don't know what Randy and EG know about whats going on with Ves ) it looks like Ves has a lot of improving to do and his head isn't right. Thats a lot to overcome and I just don't see the warrior mind in him to get it done.

As for your list of draft gurus, I enjoy reading what most of those posters have to offer and I get what you look for that is different because I look at those long shots as well. I just think you cast a much wider net then I do.

The way I look at it, I find some myself and promote them, I get turned onto others from other people here and add them. Its a good group effort.

That said, I think I do a pretty damn good job at identify the players and promoting them. I locked in on VO, Otto, CJM and all raised up the board. I did the same with Pierre Jackson and now he is not only on the board, which he wasn't, but he is listed #33. Jackie Carmichael is another started posting about but I doubt he moves up much. And Colton Iverson is going to be good value late in the 2nd but it seems several people identified him all at the same time.

Ones other promoted that I have some interest in are Erik Murphy and I really liked Mike Muscala for a while. But I see Muscala as a role player and mostly a S4. And of course your boy Wolter fits in there some where.

I was and early Len and Zeller non supporter, but turned to favoring Len after his last game which was early compared to many on the board. And got off the Zeller hate bus once I realized he wouldn't be playing center so much of what I didn't like about him was removed. Some here liked him all along but most wavered.

Last year, I was locked on Beal. Never gave MGK a chance like some here did.

None of us gets a right 100% and over the course of time we can change positions so I enjoy the debate. It makes for a good evaluation process. Hopefully I do a good job contributing to that.

Hey, I still have some stinker out there that need to get better to redeem my faith in them. T Rob is one. Brooks is another. But Nikola is looking like a real gem.

[Knighthonor]

Reading this I keep thinking about the movie Raging Bull "I coulda been a contenda".

I agree with you're general premise. I just doubt that Bennett is the "gold" of this draft. IMO Porter does everything Bennett does, but also excels defensively, and has great size for his position rather than being undersized. Bennett's value is as a stretch 4 and his outside shooting. IMO we can get Porter at 3 as our starting SF and building block, and at 38 Erik Murphy the stretch 4 off the bench.

We'd have the foundation of an excellent perimeter and defense, with plenty of shooters to spread the floor (Beal, Porter, Webster, Murphy, Price, Ariza). Although I see Ariza gone after this season, or moved before for another player.

While I believe Bennett is the right pick, I don't fancy myself knowledgeable enough to know. I hope the scouts and EG are doing a far more thorough job than people here. If Porter is the "Gold" choice, again, I'm fine wiht that. I wanna be rooting for a contenda!

sfam trust your gut instincts, you are right. bennett is definitely second best prospect and way better than Porter for the wizards. If you could go back in time, 90 percent of the posters here bashed me for thinking that Derrick Williams was a horrible pick. If only you could go back in the threads. The highest ranked posters here had convinced everyone that Jae Crowder should be drafted in lottery. and Everyone here hated Demarcus cousins...Last year everyone hated Drummond and Barnes.
Porter in a good draft glue guy drafted in the early 20's. He played in the princeton system....he is a system player, that can't challenge bigmen in the paint and he is suppose to be a small forward. Don't let people fool you. Len has no lower body strength and he hates contact...he will bust if drafted high....Zeller can't finish through contact and is soft...he will bust....your instincts on watching how well he finished against NBA strength is well founded. zeller is a decent bench player on a good team just like his brother.
This board is notorious for its lack of understanding...the value of finishing through contact. the last player they have seen do it consistently was Gilbert Arenas now john wall. they have never seen a front court player finish through contact consistently which is why they settle for mediocrity like OP, Zeller, and Len. They have never had a front court player average over 500 FTM a season for the last 20 years.

Wizard fans have never seen a front court player on their team get close to 500 FTM a season

What's your opinion on VO, Shabazz, and Noel?

[doclinkin]

sfam trust your gut instincts, you are right. bennett is definitely second best prospect and way better than Porter for the wizards. If you could go back in time, 90 percent of the posters here bashed me for thinking that Derrick Williams was a horrible pick. If only you could go back in the threads.

I can go back in time! Let's see who WizNasty wanted us to pick....

Re: Lather me with blather -- DRAFT thread 4

Unread postby WizarDynasty on Tue Jun 21, 2011 3:41 pm
http://youtu.be/UvrLlx1KDLE?t=49m12s

He has excellent hands and he is an excellent perimeter defender. He becomes our best perimeter defender and he has he highest offensive and defensive IQ on his first day of the team. Teams couldn't leave him wide open on the perimeter on offense either if he closely paid attention. He isn't a dead eye shooter but he is a threat. He isn't going to create offense with his iso moves but he can match up with much smaller players on the perimeter and would punish and opposing team for using a shooting guard as a pretend small forward. He would abuse nick young if young were to play small forward yet he would easily be able to keep up with him defensively out on the perimeter. Vesely is a cornerstone player and a starter.

Never mind, i would take Kanter over Vesely but Vesely will turn out to be the more important player.

0

Re: Lather me with blather -- DRAFT thread 4

Postby WizarDynasty on Thu Jun 09, 2011 1:46 pm
get out of the guys personal life. His personal life should have nothing to do with the idea that he usually outperforms the his counterpart each game. If each our starters outperformed their counterpart, we would have won alot more games.
Judge a player based on how many times the won the matchup against the other starter out of 82 games, you then will gain more credibility.
We suck because we don't have reliable performance from our bigs coming off the bench. You aren't going to win in the nba when you don't have a big off the bench that both score and play defense against another legitimate big. We had rookies and Yi, and Armstrong.
You need a quality nba big---booker is a center with a small forwards body---and seraphin who makes one assist every 68 minutes.
No team in the league will win a game with the bigs we had coming off our bench. Number on priority is getting a high iq big--someone 6'9 not 6'6. vucevic at the bare minimum...i advocate tyler but wizards fans seem to hate a player if they show they are independent thinker--and love to judge based on off court action rather than what they do on the court

[The Consiglieri]

Folks talk about league average as if that's an insult. I think Zeller will be better than that, but when I did draft research on 4-year production by draft slot, the third pick (at least according to PER) on average wasn't much better than average.

No, I talk about it as something that is not something for us to aspire for, but rather to settle for, if what we aspire for doesn't come to fruition. You shouldn't be aiming from the get go for mediocrity. If you are, why are you even competing? What's the point of having a team in the first place? I always assumed it was building a champion, and aiming low is something that never gets you there.

I agree with you on what the goal is -- or should be, at least. I don't think the Wiz front office has that goal. I think they view it as unrealistic unless they get lucky and a superstar falls in their lap. Metaphorical lap, of course.

I don't agree with the notion that Zeller is going to max out at average, though. Even in this year's draft there are a number of players who could make really terrific pros if they put in the requisite work. I view Zeller as one of those guys. I think his floor is higher than some of the others because he's already demonstrated a good work ethic.

Aldridge had a pile of scouts and exec's comment on him:

"......For much of the season, Zeller was projected as a high Lottery pick, considered by many to be the best running big man in college basketball. But Zeller's stock has slipped a little in the last month or so, despite being named a second-team all-American.

He had a nightmare game against Syracuse in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament, making just three of 10 shots as Syracuse's big men took turns blocking Zeller any time he tried to drive through the Orange's zone. It left a few NBA types wondering if he could score consistently in the paint in the pros when the game becomes a halfcourt affair.


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"I really like him, and I still do like him," an Eastern Conference general manager said. "But I can see where his stock has fallen. He's a hell of a complementary player. If he's your third big, fourth big down the line, you've got a real good complementary player. But we're talking about a lottery pick, right?"

The 20-year-old Zeller, who was eighth nationally in PER (30.93) last season, has more than his share of fans, too.

"He's not a savior, not a star," another Eastern Conference executive said. "But if you look at supply and demand, and players that are 6-10, 7-foot, and internationally, there aren't that many of them. He grades out pretty well. He doesn't have great hands or great length, but at this stage, as a second-year player, we like him."

Said a Northwest Division scout: "What he's good at is if he gets the ball 10 feet from the basket, turns and faces. Now he can beat them off the dribble either way. I think he's a better face-the-basket player than back-to-the-basket player."

Another veteran scout was also intrigued by Zeller.

"He can pick and pop," the scout said. "He's never going to be a star. He makes free throws, he can run like the wind. He's a good player. Wherever he goes, you're going to get a good player. I think he can be a starter, if he's your fourth or fifth best player, depending on the other three or four, he's good enough. He can start. Now, maybe not tomorrow, but in a couple of years? Maybe."

Zeller will have to show he is at least familiar with the NBA 3-point line; he only attempted two threes all season for the Hoosiers.

"Can he go outside?," a Pacific Division executive asked. "There's a guy who, he's not a five. He's going to have to play four. And they never did play him on the perimeter. Even though in warmups he shot it from the outside, I never saw it [in a game]. I'm not sure he's as good as his brother [Cavaliers rookie Tyler Zeller], to be honest. He might be in the long run, but right now, he really scares me. He's got good footwork but I'm really afraid of him ... he can't go up over guys and finish, and he's always off balance."

But if a college player with a similar style -- like the Pacers' Tyler Hansbrough -- can find a home in the NBA by playing hard and running the floor, so can Zeller.

"There's not a whole lot sexy about this kid," one executive said. "Just meat-and-potatoes basketball. He's going to rebound in position, but he's not an animal. He's a solid rotation guy. If he's your starter you either have a hell of a team around him or you're not very good......"


For me, what's described, and what I watched was not good enough. I know he got a top of the line combine trainer so he could score through the roof during testing, but so what, what is he exactly, a 4th or 5th best guy on a good or great team? A guy who can't play in the paint at the next level. A guy who according to the scouts Aldridge talked to, was ranked behind both Bennett AND Olynyk, pre-combine? That's somebody I have zero interest in drafting other than via a trade down, and even then I probably wouldn't do it, because the other piece wouldn't make it worthwhile unless it was an unprotected '14 pick from a team we all knew was going to suck next year.

I think he has a chance to be average maybe even above league average next year, but I also think there's a lot of potential that he could be a near flat out bust, a bench player w/not quite the tools to start at the 4 for a legit good team, and I don't see any point in that. From what I saw watching him, I saw a guy who has major limitations, and no chance at playing the 5, or being a strong weapon inside as a 4. I think we can do a lot better. I'd grab Oladipo before him even w/the duplication of talent, because at least with Oladipo, I see the talent, the D, and the athleticism to be a legit weapon even if his offense his junior year ends up being a mirage. Zeller? If things go wrong with him, he's just a big who can't go inside, can't really play D, or hit the boards that well, and can only shoot. He could have a role, but for owning the 3rd pick, that's a pretty ghastly return. I'd definitely rather aim higher with Oladipo, Bennett, McLemore, hell even Len, and even a lower upside guy like Porter than at that (although Pelton has argued that Porter has more upside than many seem to think).