Dat2U wrote:payitforward wrote:Just so it's clear what I mean -- if you took Gortat and his numbers away from last year, and you substituted Cousins numbers (they played almost the same # of minutes), the Wizards would have had a worse record. Significantly worse.
Gortat was the better rebounder. Gortat turned it over way less. Gortat fouled less.
Every 40 minutes, DMC took 11 more shots than Gortat. You want to know how many extra points those extra shots gave his team? 7.2 more points. I.e. Cousins shot 33% on those extra shots. If he'd been with us instead of Gortat -- those 11 shots would have been taken away from guys who shot a lot better than 33%. That would have cost us points.
Now, he made up for a lot of that by getting the line 8.4 more times than Gortat! But, overall, his TS% was way way lower than Marcin's.
Cousins is enormous, and he's incredibly gifted. Unfortunately, he doesn't use those gifts in the most productive way on the basketball court. Trade him here straight up for Gortat, and we're a worse team.
Of course he could play totally differently. But... why can't I say that about any player in the league? By and large, that's not what happens.
My best guess is he winds up a New York Knick -- they love guys like him.
Absolute nonsense. Gortat is a low usage player. He isn't asked to do nearly as much as Cousins is tasked with offensively. So if Gortat is not using those possessions, it means other players have to use them.
I agree completely! Well... except that Gortat is more of an "average usage" Center than low usage. But all the same you are right that Cousins dominates offense on his team.
In fact, not just on his team:
DeMarcus Cousins took more shots per 40 minutes than any other player in the NBA (w/ the sole exception of Kobe on his goodbye tour - he took .2 more shots per 40 minutes than DMC).
That's right: more shots than Stephen Curry. More shots than Kevin Durant. More shots than Kyrie Irving. More shots than Damien Lillard. More shots than Carmelo Anthony. More shots than LeBron James. More shots than... well, you get the idea.
But, unlike every other one of those players, DeMarcus Cousins' shots went in at a low %. Cousins likes to get the ball, turn and face the bucket, do a bunch of dribbling and then either turn the ball over or take and miss a jumper. No other C in the league is anywhere near Cousins in turnovers. No PF in the league is anywhere near Cousins in TOs. The only players in the league who turn the ball over more than DeMarcus Cousins are three PGs (Wall, Westbrook & Harden).
In 40 minutes, DMC takes 23.7 shots and has 4.4 TOs. Gortat takes 13.5 shots and has 2.1 TOs. Those numbers reflect Cousins using 12.5 more possessions than Marcin. He makes exactly 3 more shots doing that: b/c he shoots some 3s that is 7 extra points on 12.5 more possessions. Hence, when you go on to write...
Dat2U wrote:So instead we get Wall & Beal burning possessions with mid-range jumpers or we might get left with a Markieff Morris 20 footer. Or Garrett Temple open on the wing....
...you must think that on 12.5 possessions by those guys we'd be likely to get less than 7 extra points? Because, if you don't think that, if you think that from every 12.5 possessions by Wall/Beal/Temple last year we got more than 7 points, then it's hard to see how this "instead" is a problem. In fact, of course, we did get more than 7 points per 12.5 possessions by those guys -- a lot more.
(Now, in fairness, I cheated here by leaving out Cousins' trips to the line, which improve his efficiency -- though not to the point of an average Center)
Still, mostly I agree with the picture in your mind. For example when you say about those Wall/Beal/Temple possessions that they are...
Dat2U wrote:options that the defense prefers as opposed to getting bullied in the paint by Cousins
...you could not be more correct. In your mind. Because, in your mind, DeMarcus Cousins bullies people in the paint a lot. The problem is that he doesn't. In reality, what he mostly does is shoot a low % jumper or 3 or turn the ball over.
Now, if he
did bully people in the paint consistently, he'd be one of the top Centers in the league -- he's enormous and enormously gifted, as I've said. But, alas, he doesn't like doing that. He likes to demonstrate that he has "skills."
Dat2U wrote:He demands attention meaning other guys get better looks because Cousins is the focus of defenses.
Are you sure about that, Dat? Do other Kings' players actually shoot a higher % when he's on the floor than when he's off? Which they'd clearly do if they got better looks because of him. In fact, don't you think opposing coaches know what DMC's eFG% is? I'm thinking they'd be happy to let a guy have the ball who takes 28.1 tries (shots plus turnovers) to get his team 22.6 points! Just don't foul him.
One thing you are certainly right about: the rest of the Kings are a whole lot better shooters than DMC. In fact, despite his abysmal eFG% they were one of the best shooting teams in the league last year. Maybe they'd be better off if other guys shot more? And DeMarcus less?
DeMarcus Cousins is a tremendous talent. But he's not an outstanding NBA player. Maybe if he came here he would be? Then again....