Ruzious wrote:payitforward wrote:I've answered your question, Doc, though it took me some time to reduce it to the question you were really asking, which was: "if you take this list of 8 people off the board, who is the best prospect in the draft?"
Now I've got one for you. Lets see whether you answer it & what your answer is. Lets say that your list of the first 8 picks in accurate, but that when our #9 pick comes around, a trade down scenario is available -- 2 of them in fact --
1. Our # 9 pick for the Celtics #20 & #22 picks.
2. Our #9 pick for the Nets #17 & #27 picks.
Do you take Samanic? Or one of the trade down scenarios? If so, which one?
You're under-estimating the trade value of the 9th pick in both cases, imo. The trade with the Celtics is especially bad considering they have the 14th pick - you should at least be able to get 14 and 22 for 9.
I don't think he is.
Kevin Pelton put together a draft pick trade value to estimate the relative value of each pick. The #14 and #22 have way more value than the #9 in the abstract. On a scale of 100, the #9 is worth about 46 points, the #14 is worth about 33 points, and the #22 is worth about 21 points.
Obviously, in the real world, a team can fall in love with a player and overpay in a trade-up, but that doesn't seem that likely in this draft given the lack of separation between picks 9-20. Heck, even PIF's two scenarios slightly favor us. The 20 + 22 and the 17 + 27 each have a higher point value than the #9, but not by much.
















