2021 Draft Thread - Part II

[mhd]

Here's Seth Davis' report on a few of the other players we've been discussing.

I really like all of these comments he makes. Seth Davis seems very even-handed in his criticism with likes and dislikes about each player. His expectations seem very realistic. He doesn't compare ordinary prospects to NBA stars. It gives him a lot more credibility.

I don't necessarily agree with his evaluations, but I think his assessment of the draft class as a whole seems about right. There are a couple guys with star potential, a few more with starter potential, and a whole bunch with rotation-player potential.

Nate, those are actually quotes from Scouts. Davis accumulates those quotes, but they are not his personal evaluations.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Man I love this draft!

So many players I'd be happy with at 15.

I think my personal favorite might be Murphy, as a player that should be available at 15, fills a need, and has upside.

Garuba also is a guy who fills a need and can contribute right away, and has upside.

I like Wagner, Kispert, Duarte, Springer, McBride, Mitchell, Butler, Hyland...

I'd love any of these guys!

And yet.... Something tells me we 're going to draft Ziaire Williams.

I love this draft depth so much, I hope we trade down, or buy 1 or 2 2nd round picks, or trade for picks (Bonga, Winston?) I'd trade any current players outside of Gafford, Rui, Beal, Westbrook for picks in this draft.

[payitforward]

Love the enthusiasm, man!

[NatP4]

Something tells me we are going to trade Beal to GS for Wiseman, 7, and 14. After that, we will unload Westbrook to the Lakers for the 22nd overall pick. We brought Unseld Jr. in to lead a full on rebuild IMO.

Just for fun, this is what I would do with those picks according to tankathon right now:

7: Josh Giddey
14: Trey Murphy
15: Usman Garuba
22: Jared Butler

[Dat2U]

I swear this is the time of the year where every prospect shines as bright as a diamond and is a can't miss prospect or guaranteed contributor for the next 10 years. There's absolutely no chance anyone we've mentioned might not live up to the lofty projections. The upside for everyone is simply tremendous!

[doclinkin]

The ones that are tantalizing talents with significant upside:

Jaden Springer. (smooth, efficient, 2-way, upside)

...

Of the above players. If you forced me to pick one, *just ONE* available at 15. I think I would go with Jaden Springer.

His efficiency and defense are advanced to the point where I don't know why he is mocked so low. I suspect because his game isn't flashy, simply smooth. He is making the right decisions, not the crowd pleasing ones. Still, as one of the youngest players in the draft, that suggests to me his upside is serious and significant. He has a precociously complete game. The knock on him that he didn't shoot many 3's on volume until later in the season suggests intelligence more than lack of aggression: he won't force his game until he develops a comfort level. Also: he is still learning what he can do. Yes this risks him being an Otto Porter-esque efficiency all-star, a guy who reads as passive since he is passing up his own shot. But as a guy who was 17 when the school year started, and who ended up leading his team in all the per 40 or per possession metrics, I think he was simply filling his role next to the higher rated Keon Johnson.
..

And his defense is notable for a young cat. He stays upright, keeps a wide base, does not get bumped off his spot, moves his feet to wall off penetration, makes steals when on the ball more than jumping a passing lane on a gamble. He does not look like the standard rookie defender risk to pick up fouls in high volume.

And as a young cat you can full expect he is going to get stronger when in the weight room at the next level. He's so young that as a trainer I'd likely just work on core strength exercises for a while until I'm sure he's done growing.

...

In that respect, if I had to gamble on one player for both production and upside, the player who both produced efficiently on BOTH sides offense/defense, and who has room to grow in many ways, I'm thinking Springer is the one.

...

Am I willing to risk passing this one on a trade down? .......yyees.... I think I would be. I think so. ...

I dunno though.

The savvy and hustle on this kid and situational understanding are advanced. Check how many of his highlights are hustle plays where he made the right decision. Or his defense turned into points or an assist for his squad. And this is the youngest player in the draft.

Watch on YouTube

He may not become a superstar, may have a quiet if positive effect early in his contract, but this is the sort of player who has one of those MIP level breakouts in year 3 or 4 once he hits his comfort level and can assert himself. He's one of those players who grows up all at once and teams are like: "Damn, who is this kid?? He's killing us at both ends."

An upside steal. When you start with a base of smart mistake free ball, you only need to add to your game and build your body instead of unlearning bad habits. He's got a stealth head start.

[Kanyewest]

Bouknight's biggest issue in college was that he wasn't that great of a 3-point shooter (29.3%). Look at him here:

Watch on YouTube

Ryen Russilo was saying that Bouknight could go as high as #7 now. Seems like a long shot he lasts to 7 although one would have to take him for the pick at 15 if he's still on the board.

To me, best case is he has a Lou Williams effect - instant offense off the bench. He's the kind of player I'd hate to play with - strictly an iso player who hunts for his own shot. No doubt, he'll score a lot, but it remains to be seen if he'll do it efficiently - or do anything else well.

Yeah, his lack of assists is concerning. Although if the Wizards get a Lou Williams level scorer with that pick, that would be nice. Heard people throwing around the Jordan Clarkson comparison as well which is less enticing although perhaps Bouknight would still be more efficient than last season Westbrook.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

Kevin says Moody and Kispert are top 10 graded in YODA.

Duarte around 20.

I'm hoping we get one of those 3.

[TGW]

Booknight = Nick Young 2.0

[Kanyewest]

Last year's draft according to Yoda
https://www.bulletsforever.com/2020/6/20/21297357/wizards-nba-draft-2020-preliminary

CENTERS

Daniel Oturu, SO, Minnesota — late 1st/early 2nd
[b]Isaiah Stewart, FR, Washington — 2nd round
Jalen Smith, SO, Maryland — late 1st
Vernon Carey, FR, Duke — late lottery/mid-1st
Xavier Tillman, JR, Michigan State — late 1st/early 2nd
PF/C

Obi Toppin, SO, Dayton — top 10
Onyeka Okongwu, FR, USC — top 10
Reggie Perry, SO, Mississippi State — 2nd round
Killian Tillie, SR, Gonzaga — 2nd round
WINGS (SG/SF types)

R.J. Hampton, International — late 1st/early 2nd
Aaron Nesmith, SO, Vanderbilt — late 1st/early 2nd
Devin Vassell, SO, Florida State — mid-1st
Nate Hinton, SO, Houston — late 1st
Isaac Okoro, FR, Auburn — late 1st/early 2nd
Anthony Edwards, FR, Georgia — mid-1st
Joel Ayayi, SO, Gonzaga — mid-1st
POINT GUARDS

Killian Hayes, International — late 1st/early 2nd
LaMelo Ball, International — late lottery
Malachi Flynn, SR, San Diego State — late 1st
Tyrese Haliburton, SO, Iowa State — top 10
Haliburton may be more of a combo guard than a true PG — something that shouldn’t reduce his value as the NBA continues to de-emphasize position.

In the borderline group — guys who just miss the cutoff for a “draftable” grade (at least at this point) but who are close enough that they’re still worth taking in the second round or signing after the draft, I have:

Cassius Stanley, G/F, Duke
Payton Pritchard, PG, Oregon
Devon Dotson, PG, Kansas
Jahmi’us Ramsey, SG, Texas Tech
Precious Achiuw, F/C, Memphis
Josh Green, G/F, Arizona
Mason Jones, SG, Arkansas
Tyrell Terry, PG, Stanford
Saddiq Bey, F, Villanova

Prospects appearing high in the analysis of other draft analysts and mock draft makers who are out of the draftable zone in YODA at this point include: Deni Avdija, Cole Anthony, Tyrese Maxey, Patrick Williams, Theo Maledon, Leandro Balmaro, Jaden McDaniels.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Listened to Chad Ford today, word is DayRon Sharpe has been VERY impressive in workouts and blowing GMs away with his ability to shoot it.

Wasn't his role in college and barely took any 3s, but he has shot "the leather off the ball", stroking it from distance and hitting a very high percentage.

NBA Draft ROOM scouting report:

Draft Notes
A powerful, bruising, interior-oriented big man who impacts all aspects of the game, from rebounding, defending in the lane and running the court.

He’s a highly productive player who is too much for most college defenders to handle and his interior scoring ability is as good as there is in this draft class.

At 6-11 and 265 he really knows how to use his size and is a great screen setter and can also make some plays out of the pick and roll. He projects as a player who can do a lot more than just score inside. He’s got some passing ability and can put the ball on the deck and make plays.

Sharpe is a surprisingly nimble player for size and can actually step out and guard in space and stay with smaller players. He moves his feet really well for his size.

He projects as a likely/possible first round pick in 2021. He’s not the most talked about player in the country but he’s a pro in the making, who should be a NBA starter for a long time.

Comparisons
Al Jefferson
Draft Projection
mid first to early second round pick in the 2021 NBA Draft

[payitforward]

A lot of fascinating stuff in the last couple of posts.

YODA was significantly off in projecting prospects for the 2020 draft -- not just off in re: the order guys were taken but far worse than that in its assessments of players: Most obviously Peyton Pritchard, Precious Achiuwa, Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart, LaMelo, & a few others. No glory here, Kevin, sorry....

[SUPERBALLMAN]

So I'm just now looking at Keon Johnson, and not sure why I've totally overlooked him before now. I think I may have actually been confusing him with Jalen Johnson? Anyway, gotta like the Artest comp... Someone worthy of a look at 15 for sure, and currently mocked to us by Draftroom.

Draftroom:
Draft Notes
Keon Johnson is a next level athlete who’s stock is trending up. He didn”t get a ton of touches for a loaded Tennessee team but he has a ton of natural ability and all the tools NBA teams look for. He’s one of the least polished players in this year’s lottery/mid first round but his athletic upside and flashes of ability will likely get him drafted in the top 14.

At the draft combine he posted a ridiculous 48-inch vertical leap, smashing the previous record. This demonstrates his next level athleticism (although we must point out that his standing reach of 8-1 is quite low, which boosts his vertical number).

Johnson will need some time to refine his ball-handling, shooting and play-making skills but his elite athleticism and rock solid frame give him a nice NBA ceiling. At this point he drives the ball mostly to the right but he does so effectively and with a lot of success. He’s got great burst into the lane and explodes above the rim.

In some ways he plays like a young Ron Artest, being physical in the paint, rebounding the heck out the ball and also initiating the offense as a point forward. Another player Johnson reminds me of is Jaylen Brown, with his physical driving style and high end athleticism. It’s too early to say if he’ll be as good as those two players but the tools are there.

At this point outside shooting isn’t a strength but his shot certainly isn’t broken and will surely improve over the course of his career. He’s a slasher and a hustle player who doesn’t need to be a first or second option on offense to have a big impact on the game.

On the defensive end is where Johnson really stands out. He’s a pesky, hard-nosed defender who gives great effort and really looks in on his man. He plays passing lanes well and has very quick hands. At 6-5 he’s got enough size to guard SFs and his quick feet and awesome lateral agility allow him to stay in-front of just about any player out there.

Comparisons
smaller Jaylen Brown

Watch on YouTube

[payitforward]

Listened to Chad Ford today, word is DayRon Sharpe has been VERY impressive in workouts and blowing GMs away with his ability to shoot it.

Wasn't his role in college and barely took any 3s, but he has shot "the leather off the ball", stroking it from distance and hitting a very high percentage.

NBA Draft ROOM scouting report:

Draft Notes
A powerful, bruising, interior-oriented big man who impacts all aspects of the game, from rebounding, defending in the lane and running the court.

He’s a highly productive player who is too much for most college defenders to handle and his interior scoring ability is as good as there is in this draft class.

At 6-11 and 265 he really knows how to use his size and is a great screen setter and can also make some plays out of the pick and roll. He projects as a player who can do a lot more than just score inside. He’s got some passing ability and can put the ball on the deck and make plays.

Sharpe is a surprisingly nimble player for size and can actually step out and guard in space and stay with smaller players. He moves his feet really well for his size.

He projects as a likely/possible first round pick in 2021. He’s not the most talked about player in the country but he’s a pro in the making, who should be a NBA starter for a long time.

Comparisons
Al Jefferson
Draft Projection
mid first to early second round pick in the 2021 NBA Draft

Easy to believe - kid put up some terrific numbers as a freshman. I see him listed as a 4 sometimes & other times as a 5 -- if he can be a PF, I'd love to have him on a trade down (2d player we take....).

[payitforward]

I swear this is the time of the year where every prospect shines as bright as a diamond and is a can't miss prospect or guaranteed contributor for the next 10 years. There's absolutely no chance anyone we've mentioned might not live up to the lofty projections. The upside for everyone is simply tremendous!

I keep telling you... we gotta grab that kid from south-eastern Europe, what' s his name...? oh yeah: Zhirkon Paste. Compares favorably to Py Right.

[payitforward]

Here are some highlights of Jalen Johnson at Duke. You really only need to watch the first 3 minutes or so to see the high IQ defense (steals & blocks); passing, ballhandling (especially the ability to take defenders off the dribble); and ability to go end-to-end and finish at the rim.

Pretty impressive stuff for a young man his size.

Yes, his shooting needs to improve but Johnson has the physical tools and IQ to be a quality starter at the next level.

I'm not suggesting that the Zards draft him because we need shooting (Moody, Murphy, Kispert, Butler) but don't sleep on JJ.

Watch on YouTube

I'm with Zards on this, & in fact I'd say that if JJ were there at #15 it would be impossible to pass on him. There's just too much potential. A bit like what Ruzious had in mind when he wrote that you can't pass on a potential star at 15.

Now... if we trade down & pick up multiple talented players, I won't complain too much about passing on Johnson -- there are just so many solid, solid prospects this year....

Otoh, Johnson had all of 2 good games last season and pretty much stunk the rest of them - before he quit. But there must have been lots of other college players that quit because of the pandemic.

No question about the risk level! But, as you know, some of those risks turn out great. & then too some of the sure things fail.

With this kid, it really seems like it comes down to how he is between his ears. Obviously, we're too removed to have any real sense of that.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I swear this is the time of the year where every prospect shines as bright as a diamond and is a can't miss prospect or guaranteed contributor for the next 10 years. There's absolutely no chance anyone we've mentioned might not live up to the lofty projections. The upside for everyone is simply tremendous!

I keep telling you... we gotta grab that kid from south-eastern Europe, what' s his name...? oh yeah: Zhirkon Paste. Compares favorably to Py Right.

OMG THIS IS THE GUY! HIDDEN GEM OF THE DRAFT TOMMY SHEPPARD WILL SHOCK THE WORLD!

Watch on YouTube

[gambitx777]

If we trade beal for that 7 pic and stuff I wouldn't be mad taking moody and maybe grabbing Kispert at 14. Just saying.

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[DCZards]

A lot of fascinating stuff in the last couple of posts.

YODA was significantly off in projecting prospects for the 2020 draft -- not just off in re: the order guys were taken but far worse than that in its assessments of players: Most obviously Peyton Pritchard, Precious Achiuwa, Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart, LaMelo, & a few others. No glory here, Kevin, sorry....

I’d add Edwards, Maxey, Williams and, probably, Anthony to the list of those that YODA was wrong about. Hopefully, Avdija as well.

[gambitx777]

A lot of fascinating stuff in the last couple of posts.

YODA was significantly off in projecting prospects for the 2020 draft -- not just off in re: the order guys were taken but far worse than that in its assessments of players: Most obviously Peyton Pritchard, Precious Achiuwa, Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart, LaMelo, & a few others. No glory here, Kevin, sorry....

I’d add Edwards, Maxey, Williams and, probably, Anthony to the list of those that YODA was wrong about. Hopefully, Avdija as well.

I would add deni to that list already he showed good D and showed that he belonged out there. His ability was proven now he just needed molded, his issue was often being too timid.

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