leswizards wrote:There ages are irrelevant. Bilal has 1 season left to show significant improvement before the Wizards have to make a decision about his future with the team. If he doesn’t make significant improvement, the best decision may be to cut ties with him. All the other players have 2 seasons left.
Don't take this the wrong way, but this take is so far backwards it farts when you talk.
Bilal is one of the league's best young defenders. He's a circuit breaker vs all star perimeter players, a stat blackout. His athletic potential is through the roof, measured by synergy sports as the player with the quickest jump in the NBA. He has shown enough to be given room to grow. His shortcomings are fixable, but his potential is through the roof:
As a Wizards fan how often have you seen the team give up on a talented player too early. I'll answer: too often. We have seen Bilal for 2 years on a team that is intentionally tanking so it won't lose a pick. Lotto protected his rookie year, Top 10 protected last year, Top 8 next year. But in that time Bilal has been recognized by scouts as an 'off-night' type of defender. And he has grown since he was drafted, now a legit 6'9" with a 7'3" wingspan.
Meanwhile KyShawn George is among the league leaders in perimeter defense as well. Check the hustle stats:
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/hustle?sort=CONTESTED_SHOTS_3PT&dir=1&PerMode=PerGame&SeasonType=Regular+Season
Top 10 in contested 3 pt shots per game, Top 5 per 36.
Recovering 63% of loose balls on defense, better than Josh Hart, Kawhi, or Lu Dort. Among other measures.
This is not just compared to rookies, but to the entire league.
Kyshawn George has a jump on being one of the key defenders in the league. Plus he is still growing. Added an inch since the combine.
As to the youngest player on the team: Bub Carrington had 5 double doubles, 3 of which were in rebounds -- from the PG position. He had multiple games where he led both teams in rebounds, despite being the shortest guy on court. He had a 32 point game in his rookie year, posted a ~4:1 ast/TO ratio, had a month where he finished in the 50/40/90 club. All as the 3rd youngest starter in the league this year.
As for the premise of your take:
My guess is there are far more 19 to 20 year olds that never panned out than there are 19 to 20 year olds who went from being awful in there first season or 2 to actually becoming solid nba players.
Youth is irrelevant if you don’t have nba talent. Some people have yet to accept that fact.
You're flat wrong. Granted there are many more NBA talents of any age that amount to nothing than there are that grow into good players. But with few exceptions, the teenagers who make it to the NBA start out bad before they grow into anything. Studies show the breakout year for NBA players is 23-24 years old. That's generally 3 years into their pro career. That carries form with the teenage players as well, which means they tend to break out a year or two later. The difference is their peak years are generally longer, and their ultimate production is typically higher after they do break out.
Here compare for yourself a few talented teenagers who jumped to the NBA: Bub vs Beal vs Kobe vs TMac
For all that Bub gets crushed for not scoring on the interior, in their rookie years Bub Carrington had a better 2pt FG% than TMac Kobe and Bradley Beal. Better eFG% than all of them. Rebounded better than any but the 6'9" TMac. Despite being the shortest of this bunch. Passed better with fewer TO's per 100 possessions. Better offensive rating than all but TMAc.
Point being not that he is going to be a Hall of Famer and surefire all star, but that you have no idea the upside of the kid. Teenage players suck in the NBA. The key is how much and how consistently they develop. You can doubt that he has much upside, okay, but it is highly likely his 3pt shooting improves. His synergy stats showed he actually hits a better percentage from three off the dribble than he does on catch and shoot play. The more he handles the ball the more efficient he is. As a starter Bub hit .364 from 3. Better than league average of .360. And far better than his .256 off the bench. You're seeing a cat struggle to adjust to a new role, catch and shoot is not his game.
I can track down the study but he projects to be a highly efficient 3pt shooter over time. Potentially elite off the dribble. Already his midrange and long-two percentages rank among the league leaders. Yeah those are bad shots but he hits them efficiently, so for him they're good shots. His mid-range shot % is the exact same as if he dunked the ball, above 55%. As he gets bigger and stronger the 46% he shoots from long two should convert to a high percentage from one step further back behind the 3pt line. Studies show the best indicator of NBA 3pt efficiency from young players is their FT%. Bub had 3 months where he shot 90% or better from the FT line.
Young players get better. The younger they are as rookies, if they are above average in a few categories, they project to be highly productive as they improve. Bub is six months younger than Deni was. But had a better rookie season.
All that to say, simply, you don't know what you're talking about. Yes rookies are generally bad. Teenage rookies usually even worse. What you look for at that age is simply flashes that they can do the thing. Not that they can do it consistently, yet. You simply want to see the ability. The rest is putting it together over time. I will say from what I can see, Bub projects to have multiple triple doubles in his career, and grow into a high percentage 3pt shooter. Offseason improvement is key, and him being allowed to carry a bigger role as a lead ballhandling guard. That and stocking the team with reliable finishers, especially in the front court.
But to state bald faced that you know he’ll be terrible since he lacks NBA talent is absurd. At this point you don’t know nothin bout my guy Bub.
