How Concerned — or Alarmed — Should We Be?

[DCZards]

Okay, adding another cause for concern... We are going to be competing with OKC, Lakers and the Spurs. We have to do better than them to get there. Haven't seen that track record thus far.

Competing with these teams for what? A championship?

[dckingsfan]

Okay, adding another cause for concern... We are going to be competing with OKC, Lakers and the Spurs. We have to do better than them to get there. Haven't seen that track record thus far.

Competing with these teams for what? A championship?

Ah, you are right - we should put the play-in

[DCZards]

Okay, adding another cause for concern... We are going to be competing with OKC, Lakers and the Spurs. We have to do better than them to get there. Haven't seen that track record thus far.

Competing with these teams for what? A championship?

Ah, you are right - we should put the play-in

The Zards would have to make it to the NBA Finals to face those WC teams. That alone would be a significant achievement…and is several years away.

I’d be more worried about the young EC teams we’d have to beat to make the finals…teams like Orlando and Detroit. And it’s far too early in the rebuild to be concerned about that, imo.

[The Consiglieri]

Okay, adding another cause for concern... We are going to be competing with OKC, Lakers and the Spurs. We have to do better than them to get there. Haven't seen that track record thus far.

If it works, it will be staggered, whatever the Lakers build, it is in its prime now, and that prime, especially considering the dude's fitness, probably runs '24-'30+, OKC is similarly in prime now, but with a mountain of assets running for years and years, so their horizon is considering SGA's age, probably 24-'32, and maybe longer if they hit on those lottery balls/picks they have a massive pile of, or trade them for other young stars, the Spurs are an unknown to me because at least in my view, Wemby kind of pulls a Jayden Daniels, making them a little too good too fast, and so they lack pieces to finish off the build, they are catchable even in the short term because they need to land some more primo talent, and unless they steal a Kawahi again or something else like that, it could short circuit halfway finished.

To me, our prime is likely going to be '29 and beyond, several years after the prime era's of this version of the Lakers and OKC have started, so I don't think there's a ton of overlap unless they manage to steal a giant pile of mega assets.

Of course all of this assumes we are able to squeeze at least 2 stars and several complimentary pieces from the '23-'27 self-earned classes, and pick swaps and goodies we collected from others between now and '30. Basically we still need to hit on stuff, and that's basically the ball game, and we'll mostly know if this thing is gonna work, barring Giannis/Kawhi/Jokic luck with later picks, within the next 16 or 17 months in terms of ping pong balls. If it does though, I think we're helped by the fact that the big dogs from the current era, will be at the edge of the athletic primes of their most talented players by the time we're actually good ('28 or later), so not a ton of overlap, unless those guys age like Tom Brady and LeBron.

On the topic of the East, well, the Celtics will be 10 years in to this cycle of players by the time we're good, so they'll be aging out without the ability to steal from an idiot Russian owner to rebuild like they did last decade, Cleveland, and Detroit are interesting, they are just a touch older than our guys (probably 3-5 years), but yeah, we don't really know what is going to happen in the East because other than Cleveland, for now, there's no real new hotness that I know of, just a good not great Knicks, a very good but are they great Cleveland, Detroit finally kinda hitting but how high is their ceiling etc. We'll see. The bulk of the talent as per usual, is mostly in the West, and so are the bulk of the best transformative traded and acquired future pick based assets (Swaps and picks), so I'm not as worried about the East, we're either gonna be good enough, or not, based on what happens in the short term, if we nail these picks and assets, we will float to the top of the East, but still have massive challenges in the West with LA, Houston, OKC, San Antonio and more.

[dckingsfan]

Okay, adding another cause for concern... We are going to be competing with OKC, Lakers and the Spurs. We have to do better than them to get there. Haven't seen that track record thus far.

If it works, it will be staggered, whatever the Lakers build, it is in its prime now, and that prime, especially considering the dude's fitness, probably runs '24-'30+, OKC is similarly in prime now, but with a mountain of assets running for years and years, so their horizon is considering SGA's age, probably 24-'32, and maybe longer if they hit on those lottery balls/picks they have a massive pile of, or trade them for other young stars, the Spurs are an unknown to me because at least in my view, Wemby kind of pulls a Jayden Daniels, making them a little too good too fast, and so they lack pieces to finish off the build, they are catchable even in the short term because they need to land some more primo talent, and unless they steal a Kawahi again or something else like that, it could short circuit halfway finished.

To me, our prime is likely going to be '29 and beyond, several years after the prime era's of this version of the Lakers and OKC have started, so I don't think there's a ton of overlap unless they manage to steal a giant pile of mega assets.

Of course all of this assumes we are able to squeeze at least 2 stars and several complimentary pieces from the '23-'27 self-earned classes, and pick swaps and goodies we collected from others between now and '30. Basically we still need to hit on stuff, and that's basically the ball game, and we'll mostly know if this thing is gonna work, barring Giannis/Kawhi/Jokic luck with later picks, within the next 16 or 17 months in terms of ping pong balls. If it does though, I think we're helped by the fact that the big dogs from the current era, will be at the edge of the athletic primes of their most talented players by the time we're actually good ('28 or later), so not a ton of overlap, unless those guys age like Tom Brady and LeBron.

On the topic of the East, well, the Celtics will be 10 years in to this cycle of players by the time we're good, so they'll be aging out without the ability to steal from an idiot Russian owner to rebuild like they did last decade, Cleveland, and Detroit are interesting, they are just a touch older than our guys (probably 3-5 years), but yeah, we don't really know what is going to happen in the East because other than Cleveland, for now, there's no real new hotness that I know of, just a good not great Knicks, a very good but are they great Cleveland, Detroit finally kinda hitting but how high is their ceiling etc. We'll see. The bulk of the talent as per usual, is mostly in the West, and so are the bulk of the best transformative traded and acquired future pick based assets (Swaps and picks), so I'm not as worried about the East, we're either gonna be good enough, or not, based on what happens in the short term, if we nail these picks and assets, we will float to the top of the East, but still have massive challenges in the West with LA, Houston, OKC, San Antonio and more.

I don't see any player on the current roster being more than a 3rd best player on a good team and 4th or 5th on a very good team (with the hopeful development). So, I see us out even further than that, but maybe '29 or 30? That is why I think we should be prepared to move the current young players for draft picks in '31, '32 & '33 UNLESS, we get really lucky and hit on Flagg. (Funny thing, Flagg has a 50/50 of going west or thereabouts). I think that is a concern (not being willing to trade our youngsters that the FO drafted).

BTW, I wouldn't sleep on SA, they also have two picks in this year's lottery.

And then to the east. Brooklyn has really set themselves up for our timeframe as well, while we were dabbling in '24 with three picks, they have four picks in '25 (just sayin'). I feel like the Pistons are more likely on our trajectory. Miami also seems to be like LA and can grab stars in FA, guessing they may very well be on our timeframe as well.

[9 and 20]

Don't forget to account for the Lakers and a 50 year old Lebron, fueled by Brawndo, trading some dirty napkins for Wemby after Luka Duckworth retires to a cabin in the Slovenian Alps.

[The Consiglieri]

I concede on all points to the two most recent posts.

[payitforward]

...it does seem like this FO is having to rely on luck. So, luck it is with our fingers and toes crossed....

I disagree entirely. That is I don't think we need to rely on luck any more than any other franchise. Plus, if you mean Dawkins et. al. need more luck because of less skill, well... that strikes me as altogether off. Wrong in every way.

...I don't think the draft class of '24 will yield anything that is all that....

No one has played great so far. All the same... what actual tools of analysis do you employ to reach a conclusion of this sort, I wonder? 3+ months into these kids' careers?

...My biggest cause concern is that this FO will "value" who they picked AND that they have to be lucky.

Every franchise & every FO has to be lucky to do well. No exceptions. See the 2023 draft when Wemby went to the team with the 3d worst record rather than to Detroit.

As to the tone of judgment in your "concern," I have to say that it makes me wonder who you think it would it be better to rely on to make our draft picks going forward -- Dawkins & his staff or you?

I'm not mocking you or even being negative. Please don't take it that way. I loved Caleb Swanigan myself. & I would have picked Deni over Halliburton 8 days a week.

For that matter, Dat2U, who puts a lot of thought & effort into the draft, & who had Halliburton not Deni, said conclusively in the run-up to the '21 draft that he would have picked Sharife Cooper at 15 & gone home happy. Cooper was picked at 48 & still hasn't played a single game in the NBA.

I'm pretty happy with the picks Dawkins has made so far.

[payitforward]

...I think that is a concern (not being willing to trade our youngsters that the FO drafted)....

"that is a concern" -- i.e. more than with other franchises?

Based on what exactly?

Maybe you're not recalling that one of the first things Dawkins said when he took over was (roughly) that "we're not perfect; I'm sure we'll make some mistakes in the draft."

[pancakes3]

...I don't think the draft class of '24 will yield anything that is all that....

No one has played great so far. All the same... what actual tools of analysis do you employ to reach a conclusion of this sort, I wonder? 3+ months into these kids' careers?

last year all NBA:
Gianis - showed flashes Y3, broke out and all-NBA Y4
Luka - could tell Y1 he was gonna be good, all-NBA Y2
Shai - showed flashes Y1, broke out Y2, all-NBA Y5
Jokic - showed flashes Y1 but mostly Y2, broke out Y3 (passing came online), all-NBA Y4
Tatum - showed flashes late Y1 but still inconsistent Y2, broke out Y3 and made all-NBA

Brunson - Quiet Years 1-4 until playoffs Y4, broke out Y5, all-NBA Y6
AD - Injured early Y1 and had growing pains but showed flashes, broke out Y2, all-NBA Y3
KD - Was that dude day 1, all-NBA and scoring leader Y2
Ant - Knew halfway through Y1 he was gonna be good (averaged 24, 21, and 27ppg in March/April/May his rookie year), all-NBA Y4
Kawhi - Was on the radar Y3 and then won finals MVP, DPOY Y4, DPOY/All-NBA Y5

Booker - Strung together some 20-30pt games second half of Y1, broke out Y2, all-NBA Y7
Steph - showed that he was good starting Y1 but not better than Monta, broke out Y4 after being injured Y3, all-NBA Y5
Haliburton - broke out Y2, all-NBA Y6
Lebron - knew day 1 he was gonna be good, all-NBA Y2
Sabonis - showed flashes Y3, broke out Y4, all-NBA Y7

other recent all-NBA guys

Embiid - after 2 years of injuries, he broke out Y3, all-NBA Y4
Jaylen Brown - broke out Y4, all-NBA Y7
Jimmy Butler - broke out Y4, all-NBA Y6
Donovan Mitchell - surprise breakout Y1 (lost ROY to Ben Simmons lol), all-NBA 6
De'aaron fox - broke out Y2, all-NBA Y6
Dame - broke out Y1, all-NBA Y2
Randle - broke out Y4, all-NBA Y7
Ja Morant - broke out Y1, all-NBA Y3
DeRozan - broke out Y2, all-NBA Y8
KAT - broke out Y1, all-NBA Y3
Trae Young - broke out Y1, all-NBA Y4
Pascal Siakam - broke out Y3, all-NBA Y4

median year of breakout: 2
average year of breakout: 2.44

median year of first all-NBA selection: 4
average year of first all-NBA selection: 4.67

so you usually can tell who's gonna be good by year 2, and they'll improve to all-NBA 2 seasons later.

I like what I'm seeing out of Bilal, and he's definitely shown some flashes in Y2, but it'd be nice if he could string together back-to-back 20pt games (only did it once back October so far). The consistency is an issue. Encouraging that he had a triple double, and a 6-game streak of 5+ assists in December and 8-game streak of 5+ rebounds (averaged 14/6/5 in December) but then dropped down to 10/3.5/2.5 in January, and now 17/6.5/4.6 so far in Feb.

He might break out next season he might not. And if he does, he won't be all-star good until his 4th year, and not all-NBA until his 5th year, which is on par with guys like Butler, Jaylen Brown, and Giannis. Chances are, best case scenario, he's a 3rd team all-NBA guy. You'd be able to tell a first-team all-NBA guy much earlier (the Lebrons, KDs, and Lukas of the world).

[pancakes3]

Competing with these teams for what? A championship?

Ah, you are right - we should put the play-in

The Zards would have to make it to the NBA Finals to face those WC teams. That alone would be a significant achievement…and is several years away.

I’d be more worried about the young EC teams we’d have to beat to make the finals…teams like Orlando and Detroit. And it’s far too early in the rebuild to be concerned about that, imo.

we're in the worst division of the league and even with Flagg, I'm not sure we'd be favorites to have a better record than the Heat, Magic, or Hawks.

[dckingsfan]

...it does seem like this FO is having to rely on luck. So, luck it is with our fingers and toes crossed....

I disagree entirely. That is I don't think we need to rely on luck any more than any other franchise. Plus, if you mean Dawkins et. al. need more luck because of less skill, well... that strikes me as altogether off. Wrong in every way.

I disagree with your disagreement. This FO needs some incredible luck right now. Now, I didn't say more luck because of less skill... that is your very fine strawman

...I don't think the draft class of '24 will yield anything that is all that....

No one has played great so far. All the same... what actual tools of analysis do you employ to reach a conclusion of this sort, I wonder? 3+ months into these kids' careers?

Really? Come on...

...My biggest cause concern is that this FO will "over value" who they picked, will have to cut down on the unforced errors like the Kuz & Kispert signings AND that they have to be lucky.

Every franchise & every FO has to be lucky to do well. No exceptions. See the 2023 draft when Wemby went to the team with the 3d worst record rather than to Detroit.

As to the tone of judgment in your "concern," I have to say that it makes me wonder who you think it would it be better to rely on to make our draft picks going forward -- Dawkins & his staff or you?

I'm not mocking you or even being negative. Please don't take it that way. I loved Caleb Swanigan myself. & I would have picked Deni over Halliburton 8 days a week.

For that matter, Dat2U, who puts a lot of thought & effort into the draft, & who had Halliburton not Deni, said conclusively in the run-up to the '21 draft that he would have picked Sharife Cooper at 15 & gone home happy. Cooper was picked at 48 & still hasn't played a single game in the NBA.

I'm pretty happy with the picks Dawkins has made so far.

Corrected. And you are right, this reply is anecdotal, condescending and mocking with a touch of strawman - the trifecta all in one post

A reasonable concern to one might not be to another - so there is that...

[payitforward]

...I don't think the draft class of '24 will yield anything that is all that....

No one has played great so far. All the same... what actual tools of analysis do you employ to reach a conclusion of this sort, I wonder? 3+ months into these kids' careers?

last year all NBA:
Gianis - showed flashes Y3, broke out and all-NBA Y4
Luka - could tell Y1 he was gonna be good, all-NBA Y2
Shai - showed flashes Y1, broke out Y2, all-NBA Y5
Jokic - showed flashes Y1 but mostly Y2, broke out Y3 (passing came online), all-NBA Y4
Tatum - showed flashes late Y1 but still inconsistent Y2, broke out Y3 and made all-NBA

Brunson - Quiet Years 1-4 until playoffs Y4, broke out Y5, all-NBA Y6
AD - Injured early Y1 and had growing pains but showed flashes, broke out Y2, all-NBA Y3
KD - Was that dude day 1, all-NBA and scoring leader Y2
Ant - Knew halfway through Y1 he was gonna be good (averaged 24, 21, and 27ppg in March/April/May his rookie year), all-NBA Y4
Kawhi - Was on the radar Y3 and then won finals MVP, DPOY Y4, DPOY/All-NBA Y5

Booker - Strung together some 20-30pt games second half of Y1, broke out Y2, all-NBA Y7
Steph - showed that he was good starting Y1 but not better than Monta, broke out Y4 after being injured Y3, all-NBA Y5
Haliburton - broke out Y2, all-NBA Y6
Lebron - knew day 1 he was gonna be good, all-NBA Y2
Sabonis - showed flashes Y3, broke out Y4, all-NBA Y7

other recent all-NBA guys

Embiid - after 2 years of injuries, he broke out Y3, all-NBA Y4
Jaylen Brown - broke out Y4, all-NBA Y7
Jimmy Butler - broke out Y4, all-NBA Y6
Donovan Mitchell - surprise breakout Y1 (lost ROY to Ben Simmons lol), all-NBA 6
De'aaron fox - broke out Y2, all-NBA Y6
Dame - broke out Y1, all-NBA Y2
Randle - broke out Y4, all-NBA Y7
Ja Morant - broke out Y1, all-NBA Y3
DeRozan - broke out Y2, all-NBA Y8
KAT - broke out Y1, all-NBA Y3
Trae Young - broke out Y1, all-NBA Y4
Pascal Siakam - broke out Y3, all-NBA Y4

median year of breakout: 2
average year of breakout: 2.44

median year of first all-NBA selection: 4
average year of first all-NBA selection: 4.67

so you usually can tell who's gonna be good by year 2, and they'll improve to all-NBA 2 seasons later.

I like what I'm seeing out of Bilal, and he's definitely shown some flashes in Y2, but it'd be nice if he could string together back-to-back 20pt games (only did it once back October so far). The consistency is an issue. Encouraging that he had a triple double, and a 6-game streak of 5+ assists in December and 8-game streak of 5+ rebounds (averaged 14/6/5 in December) but then dropped down to 10/3.5/2.5 in January, and now 17/6.5/4.6 so far in Feb.

He might break out next season he might not. And if he does, he won't be all-star good until his 4th year, and not all-NBA until his 5th year, which is on par with guys like Butler, Jaylen Brown, and Giannis. Chances are, best case scenario, he's a 3rd team all-NBA guy. You'd be able to tell a first-team all-NBA guy much earlier (the Lebrons, KDs, and Lukas of the world).

Excellent analysis -- makes good sense intuitively. What I would add, however, is that in a world where so very many kids are drafted at 18 or 19 we are likely to start seeing exceptions. Or, at least, maybe we will...?

[dckingsfan]

I like what I'm seeing out of Bilal, and he's definitely shown some flashes in Y2, but it'd be nice if he could string together back-to-back 20pt games (only did it once back October so far). The consistency is an issue. Encouraging that he had a triple double, and a 6-game streak of 5+ assists in December and 8-game streak of 5+ rebounds (averaged 14/6/5 in December) but then dropped down to 10/3.5/2.5 in January, and now 17/6.5/4.6 so far in Feb.

He might break out next season he might not. And if he does, he won't be all-star good until his 4th year, and not all-NBA until his 5th year, which is on par with guys like Butler, Jaylen Brown, and Giannis. Chances are, best case scenario, he's a 3rd team all-NBA guy. You'd be able to tell a first-team all-NBA guy much earlier (the Lebrons, KDs, and Lukas of the world).

Damn, I would definitely take a 3rd team all-NBA guy especially if that became Bilal. That would be awesome. Halliburton and Sabonis are 3rd team.

Code: Select all

Season   Age   Team   MP      TS%    3P%    DRB%   AST%   STL%   BLK%   TOV%   WS/48   VORP
2023-24   19   WAS   1715   0.543   0.346   12.8    8.2   1.6    2.3    15.1   0.013   -0.9
2024-25   20   WAS   1601   0.518   0.280   11.6   14.9   1.9    2.0    14.7   0.011   -0.6

Doesn't seem like Haliburton or Sabonis numbers... then again, you never can sometimes always tell about the thing you least expect the most.

[payitforward]

...And you are right, this reply is anecdotal, condescending and mocking with a touch of strawman - the trifecta all in one post

A reasonable concern to one might not be to another - so there is that...

Never change, amigo -- you are among the best here just the way you are!

(...in my case i'm just too old to change -- might pull a mental muscle!)

[dckingsfan]

...And you are right, this reply is anecdotal, condescending and mocking with a touch of strawman - the trifecta all in one post

A reasonable concern to one might not be to another - so there is that...

Never change, amigo -- you are among the best here just the way you are!

(...in my case i'm just too old to change -- might pull a mental muscle!)

ha! All in good fun

[doclinkin]

The extra crazy part about Wemby is that Centers aren't even supposed to be good anymore in today's game, and yet he's one of the two C's in the league who are of the caliber that can be a cornerstone for a perennial contender. And the Spurs got him.

Except that the teams that are winning now all have skilled Bigs. Check the standings. Cavs are double big. Celts have Zinger and Horford. Thibs has KAT playing a traditional Center role. OKC had the best record last year and their only real offseason acquisition was a Center to play with the 7'+ Chet. The Grizz consistently have high win totals when healthy, and they added a 7'4" guy up front. The Nuggs have multi time MVP Joker in Center. The Lakers had Unibrow and were still begging for extra Center help.

The last half decade of MVPs are all 7 footers. Probably this year too unless SGA steals it from Joker.

And then there's Wemby.

I think we are getting to the point where finally the giants are no longer underrated. Playable bigs are getting hard to find. Especially if they have defensive chops.

The other sad part is leaving aside the fact that the Spurs are 1 of 1 when it comes to ping pong balls and lotto talent, other teams in the interim with far less draft success were able to get at least ONE guy and win a chip. Milwaukee were able to get their Giannis, Denver got Jokic and Carmelo, GSW got Steph. The Heat got Wade. Cleveland, obviously, with a detour.

And not even talking about championships, OKC got a run from Durant and now SGA, Orlando got Dwight, Dallas got Dirk, Minny got KG, and the Blazers with Dame.

Boston got one by drafting high two years in a row then building a team around those two. That's the model we are looking at. Boston doesn't have an MVP player. Tatum couldn't even earn minutes in the Olympics. They just have a complete team. Granted they shoot the ball well from every position, and we, you know, don't. But Boston had to trade away parts to land the guys that fit Tatum and Brown. We don't have our Tatum and Brown. Unless Bilal becomes one of the two. Meanwhile we are hoping Sarr grows into a Horford. And maybe Bub can become Jrue. Or whatever. But yeah. It's not all luck. There is still room to earn a one-time championship from team building. At least until Wemby has his breakout year. Then nobody will have a chance for a while.

That's what's scary. Wemby is 4-6 years away from his prime. He hasn't even hit the breakout that players commonly see at year 3 or 4. Another reason why to stock up on mobile Bigs. Teams are going to look for a Wemby stopper.

I bet though we've got one of the only guys who has both dunked on Wemby and blocked his shot in the same game. So, maybe we are ahead of the game and just don't know it yet.

[doclinkin]

Well, it does seem like this FO is having to rely on luck. So, luck it is with our fingers and toes crossed.

One more thing - if they make the current youngsters available for more trade assets, then we have a better chance to "luck out". I don't think the draft class of '24 will yield anything that is all that.

My biggest cause concern is that this FO will "value" who they picked AND that they have to be lucky.

Seems to me the issue some fans have with this team is that they have been ruthless in trading their assets. They see improvement in Deni and ship him. They rehab the value of Jared Butler and trade him. All for extra chances to get lucky. If anything the critique could be that they value draft picks more than actual players.

[doclinkin]

BTW, I wouldn't sleep on SA, they also have two picks in this year's lottery.

Currently the Hawks pick they own is at 15. Hopefully the Hawks keep winning. Nevertheless I fully expect the Spurs to win Cooper Flagg regardless, even with only a 3% chance to do it. Because of course they would.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Well, it does seem like this FO is having to rely on luck. So, luck it is with our fingers and toes crossed.

One more thing - if they make the current youngsters available for more trade assets, then we have a better chance to "luck out". I don't think the draft class of '24 will yield anything that is all that.

My biggest cause concern is that this FO will "value" who they picked AND that they have to be lucky.

Seems to me the issue some fans have with this team is that they have been ruthless in trading their assets. They see improvement in Deni and ship him. They rehab the value of Jared Butler and trade him. All for extra chances to get lucky. If anything the critique could be that they value draft picks more than actual players.

They're going to regret trading Butler.