Official Trade Thread Part XLVII

[pcbothwel]

Here's a similar trade to one I posted earlier , this time dealing with tonight's opponent Miami.

Miami has a lot of holes outside of Bam and Herro. Miami has 2 1st round picks this year (11 & 22). They need offense, and they are in more of a win now mode than the rebuilding Wizards... Bonus Poole played good tonight!

https://basketball.realgm.com/tradechecker/saved_trade/8847168

Poole, Kispert, Bey, 2025 2nd round pick, 2026 1st round pick (via 76ers) to Miami

Rozier, Robinson, 2025 1st round pick (11)

Why for Miami?

They get younger and better next season. Rosier & Robinson are both in their 30's, the 3 Wizards players are mid 20's in their prime. Poole is a top tier scorer and still improving, Kispert and Bey are good shooters & rotation players on good contracts.

Why for Wizards?

Rosier & Robinson are expiring contracts they can buy out. 1st round pick this year at 11 they can draft Collin Murray-Boyles.


A Poole Party in Miami ??

Poole is too similar to Herro as a player. Miami knows they wouldn't be able to stop anybody with both those guys defending the backcourt. They'd never make this trade, not unless they found another deal where Herro gets exchanged for a two-way player.

I don't know. You can always find a Kris Dunn type pretty easily & cheaply to mix in to the backcourt rotation. Finding guys who can score like Poole is not as easy. Defense and finding players who defend isn't usually a problem for Miami.

Another option would be to take our late '26 1st out and drop the return to their later pick at 22.

Poole, Kispert, Bey, 2025 2nd round pick (42) to Miami

Rozier, Robinson, 2025 1st round pick (22) to Washington


I'd rather do the 1st one, but that one might do it. Maybe its not Miami, but I think I'm on the right track with that package to net us another 1st this draft.

We must also consider the Heat pick situation.
They could very well be picking outside the lotto when its all said and done, and then it goes to OKC (Protected 1-14). But lets consider it doesnt and the situation it puts the Heat in.

The Heat traded their 2025 & 2027 pick with lotto protection (OKC and CHA). However, if the pick doesnt convey to OKC this year, the heat will then owe the 2026 & 2028 picks as UNPROTECTED. That is a real issue.
I think they want to make a FA splash in the 2026 offseason. Durant, Doncic, Trae Young, Mikal Bridges, etc.
That means moving Wiggins for an expiring, without losing overall talent, will/should be their goal.

I think the framework would be Middleton for Wiggins + asset.
- They would have 11 & 21/22, and we would have 21/22.
- Additional pieces to close value gap would be Smart & Bey for us...Rozier for them

There are a half dozen ways to splice it up:
- Middleton for Wiggins + 21
- Middleton + Smart + 22 for Wiggins + Rozier + 11

[Frichuela]

Poole is too similar to Herro as a player. Miami knows they wouldn't be able to stop anybody with both those guys defending the backcourt. They'd never make this trade, not unless they found another deal where Herro gets exchanged for a two-way player.

I don't know. You can always find a Kris Dunn type pretty easily & cheaply to mix in to the backcourt rotation. Finding guys who can score like Poole is not as easy. Defense and finding players who defend isn't usually a problem for Miami.

Another option would be to take our late '26 1st out and drop the return to their later pick at 22.

Poole, Kispert, Bey, 2025 2nd round pick (42) to Miami

Rozier, Robinson, 2025 1st round pick (22) to Washington


I'd rather do the 1st one, but that one might do it. Maybe its not Miami, but I think I'm on the right track with that package to net us another 1st this draft.

We must also consider the Heat pick situation.
They could very well be picking outside the lotto when its all said and done, and then it goes to OKC (Protected 1-14). But lets consider it doesnt and the situation it puts the Heat in.

The Heat traded their 2025 & 2027 pick with lotto protection (OKC and CHA). However, if the pick doesnt convey to OKC this year, the heat will then owe the 2026 & 2028 picks as UNPROTECTED. That is a real issue.
I think they want to make a FA splash in the 2026 offseason. Durant, Doncic, Trae Young, Mikal Bridges, etc.
That means moving Wiggins for an expiring, without losing overall talent, will/should be their goal.

I think the framework would be Middleton for Wiggins + asset.
- They would have 11 & 21/22, and we would have 21/22.
- Additional pieces to close value gap would be Smart & Bey for us...Rozier for them

There are a half dozen ways to splice it up:
- Middleton for Wiggins + 21
- Middleton + Smart + 22 for Wiggins + Rozier + 11

This one would be such a no brainer...

[9 and 20]

Rozier expires the same year as Smart, doesn't he? The Wiggins/Middleton swap might make sense (for us) but Wiggins might still be too good a player to require a draft pick to be attached - they might be able to dump him to a contending team for just an expiring contract.

[pcbothwel]

Rozier expires the same year as Smart, doesn't he? The Wiggins/Middleton swap might make sense (for us) but Wiggins might still be too good a player to require a draft pick to be attached - they might be able to dump him to a contending team for just an expiring contract.

They might, but that expiring contract will be a bad player, and the Heat are trying to stay in the playoff hunt

[AFM]

If you'd like to engage in some mild schadenfreude: viewtopic.php?f=21&t=2437642&start=1000


Feels nice to be on the winning side of a trade for once...

Read on Twitter

[payitforward]

Bunch of unhappy Bucks fans!

[Blockwatcher]

As a Knick fan holding your protected 1-8 2026 pick. I’m curious to know if your opinion on that protection changes if you win the Flagg sweepstakes. Would you be very eager to get that pick back? Or do you think you could comfortably tank again?

[doclinkin]

As a Knick fan holding your protected 1-8 2026 pick. I’m curious to know if your opinion on that protection changes if you win the Flagg sweepstakes. Would you be very eager to get that pick back? Or do you think you could comfortably tank again?

They'll try to tank again. But it would be nice not to have to. The young pups play with a lot of fire now that we shipped out an unmotivated loafing Kuzma. So we accidentally bump into wins that we have no business winning. Flagg or Harper will elevate our floor instantly in a year when even more teams will be tanking. Also we have a pick swap with PHX if we still have a pick to swap. So if they fall apart we benefit. We control 10 first round picks over the next 7 years, and 16 2nd rounders in that same span, so there is draft capital to trade even if we are unlikely to ship out our young talent. This FO is big on packaging 2nd round picks to improve their position in the 1st round. Not sure the NYK state of future draft picks, I just know the Penguin always preferred veterans in the past over young talent.

[payitforward]

Flagg/Harper or not, I don't think we'll have much trouble holding on to that pick. right now, the 8th worst team is at 32-44. Hence a 34 or 35 win season. We are not getting there next year!

Doesn't mean there is no deal, Blockwatcher -- what do you have in mind?

[doclinkin]

Flagg/Harper or not, I don't think we'll have much trouble holding on to that pick. right now, the 8th worst team is at 32-44. Hence a 34 or 35 win season. We are not getting there next year!

Doesn't mean there is no deal, Blockwatcher -- what do you have in mind?

It's not about the 8th worst record. We lose any lotto pick after 8. So this year winning 25 games would endanger that pick. The 5th worst team has a non-zero chance of losing it. Toronto likely wins 29 games this year, 7th worst. They have about the same chance of falling below the 8th pick as we do of winning the top pick: 14%

Without Kuzma we won at about a 24 game rate this year. Adding offseason development for young players, a top pick, the influence of players like Smart and Middleton, it's not improbable that we pick up 4-6 games in the standings on top of that 24 game pace. Especially in a year when more teams will be tanking. And our young players don't know enough to give up the fight. We can try to tank, but have no more Kuzma type veteran tank commanders for high usage inefficient play. Won't have 4 rookies to trot out there. One of the rookies will be a high lotto pick. If that's Harper, you lose minutes from Poole, who was last year's tank captain.

I don't think the front office wants even a 14% chance of losing our pick. If they could ship a couple (more) second rounders to the Knickerbockers to erase the question, then some of the machinations and shenanigans of tanking can evaporate and the young players can work on learning to win. Even if they won't much.

[Blockwatcher]

Flagg/Harper or not, I don't think we'll have much trouble holding on to that pick. right now, the 8th worst team is at 32-44. Hence a 34 or 35 win season. We are not getting there next year!

Doesn't mean there is no deal, Blockwatcher -- what do you have in mind?

The Knicks are so close to the 2nd apron I can’t wrap my head around a logical deal between just our teams. Maybe a sign and trade involving Precious Achiuwa? With Smart or Kispert going to another team? I don’t really know who’s kicking the tires on either of them.

I truly don’t know how eager the wizards would be to get that pick back under control so I can’t speak to what player you would send out. Here’s something outta left field.
Wiz get their pick and Achiuwa
Suns swap is voided
Knicks get Nick Richards

[doclinkin]

Flagg/Harper or not, I don't think we'll have much trouble holding on to that pick. right now, the 8th worst team is at 32-44. Hence a 34 or 35 win season. We are not getting there next year!

Doesn't mean there is no deal, Blockwatcher -- what do you have in mind?

The Knicks are so close to the 2nd apron I can’t wrap my head around a logical deal between just our teams. Maybe a sign and trade involving Precious Achiuwa? With Smart or Kispert going to another team? I don’t really know who’s kicking the tires on either of them.

I truly don’t know how eager the wizards would be to get that pick back under control so I can’t speak to what player you would send out. Here’s something outta left field.
Wiz get their pick and Achiuwa
Suns swap is voided
Knicks get Nick Richards

Zero chance the Wiz would void the Suns swap. It likely doubles their chances of a top 4 pick. The team has shown a willingness to trade for big contracts though to help a team drop below the 2nd apron.

Trade pieces for the right price: Smart, Kispert, Middleton when he picks up his option, Villanova player Saddiq Bey, Poole if the right deal comes along. But I think Thibs might be more interested in a productive Big like Richaun Holmes. Cheap, unguaranteed and productive. But for us to give you significant cap relief we'd want more than a cancellation of a pick that the odds are against us giving up anyway. And flat no on erasing the PHX pick. We are expecting to extract full value over the years for the Beal trade.

Looking at the Knicks cap, oof, you really have no one you can trade to burn your cap down. Achiuwa? he's not under contract with you next year. Unrestricted free agent. Not a player we want, so no point in the sign and trade.

Mitchell Robinson for Richaun Holmes is about the only thing you're looking at. If the Knicks send incentive.

[The Consiglieri]

If you'd like to engage in some mild schadenfreude: viewtopic.php?f=21&t=2437642&start=1000


Feels nice to be on the winning side of a trade for once...

Read on Twitter

I wouldn't rub their nose in it. They've been like a diet version of us for decades: mostly utterly hopeless, but their story is even worse, as they will always perpetually suck unless they pull a Giannis out of their rear or via lottery tanking generally speaking. We know if this franchise ever gets turned around, while DC wouldn't be attractive to the degree NYC, LA, or Miami are, it would still be in that tier below that, it wouldn't be in the utterly hopeless cohort (Charlotte, Orlando, Milwaukee, Indiana etc), it would attract FA's. It just has been an NBA backwater for 45 years, no success whatsoever, and no mega elite big names in 30 years (Webber) and only the 1 when it comes to him since the seventies. No success, widely understood terrible FO and ownership since Jimmy Carter etc, but it has meant the potential of the city was sleeping, rather than dead, like say a Charlotte or Milwaukee.

So I'm never gonna indulge the schadenfreude, Milwaukee fans will never attract elite players no matter how good they are because its freaking Milwaukee. The only people who willingly travel to Milwaukee on vacation days are people obsessed with fly fishing in muggy ---- environments, and hunters, that's it. It will never attract FA's, so barring Giannis luck or tanking, they are perpetually screwed until the league adopts an NFL style Salary Cap and even then, it would still be a problem.

I feel bad for them, this is like a diet version of when we traded a top pick in '09 for nothing. the entire fanbase knew it was clinically insane, and we were left with just praying it was wasn't a full scale disaster, and was instead, just a clear loss and a failure, like say the current Deni trade. Instead of course, Curry became the best player drafted in that what, 2009-2017 era, and we got ---- all from the assets acquired (indeed they were so bad they actually accelerated the implosion and collapse of the that iteration of the franchise). I don't think the Bucks deal is that bad, I'm more in wait and see mode with AJ, whereas Curry, and Rubio were always, at bare minimum, looking like future good players in terms of floor, with the potential to be great, we don't know what AJ is, the problem is that AJ is exactly the kind of player Milwaukee should have kept around to build around in the post Giannis world of '26 or '27, instead, they have nothing, and it's gonna be a viking funeral level "ashes burning to sea" scenario for them while we got a player with the potential to be a top 5 asset from the crappy '24 class for basically nothing.

Tragic for them, but for us, after 45 years of misery, we deserve some luck (and an actual intelligent FO), including in the lottery in '25 and '26.

[The Consiglieri]

As a Knick fan holding your protected 1-8 2026 pick. I’m curious to know if your opinion on that protection changes if you win the Flagg sweepstakes. Would you be very eager to get that pick back? Or do you think you could comfortably tank again?

I think the FO is smart enough to know that Flagg doesn't fix this roster completely, especially considering the '26 class is probably better inside the top 3 or 4 overall. We need to land 1 (and hopefully 2) of the top 3 guys from the '25 and '26 classes, period, and maybe '27.

So I don't think we're too big a risk to be slotted below 1.04 come April '26. My only concern is really what could happen if Dallas fires its GM, and Phoenix decides to leave denial land, and blows it up, because both of those teams, hell Milwaukee too, when they throw the towel in and face reality (which is zero chance of winning squat or contending for any of the 3 going forward) will completely and totally implode and join the 20 winish club. I'm hoping that none of them start that process until the winter '26 deadline so they aren't threats to our '25-'26 tanks. For now, the current bottom 4 looks like next years bottom 4, which would at worst put us at a slightly better than 1 in 50 chance of giving it to you in a worst case scenario. Basically, I'd consider buying back protection winter '25-'26 and no sooner.

Also at a 6 in 7 chance we don't get Flagg, I'm not thinking we're getting him anyway, just praying we get something in the 1.01-1.04 range while I keep an eye on Milwaukee, Phoenix, Dallas, hell maybe even Miami, to figure out if they pull the trigger. I should probably pay attention to Philly too.

[AFM]

If you'd like to engage in some mild schadenfreude: viewtopic.php?f=21&t=2437642&start=1000


Feels nice to be on the winning side of a trade for once...

Read on Twitter

I wouldn't rub their nose in it. They've been like a diet version of us for decades: mostly utterly hopeless, but their story is even worse, as they will always perpetually suck unless they pull a Giannis out of their rear or via lottery tanking generally speaking. We know if this franchise ever gets turned around, while DC wouldn't be attractive to the degree NYC, LA, or Miami are, it would still be in that tier below that, it wouldn't be in the utterly hopeless cohort (Charlotte, Orlando, Milwaukee, Indiana etc), it would attract FA's. It just has been an NBA backwater for 45 years, no success whatsoever, and no mega elite big names in 30 years (Webber) and only the 1 when it comes to him since the seventies. No success, widely understood terrible FO and ownership since Jimmy Carter etc, but it has meant the potential of the city was sleeping, rather than dead, like say a Charlotte or Milwaukee.

So I'm never gonna indulge the schadenfreude, Milwaukee fans will never attract elite players no matter how good they are because its freaking Milwaukee. The only people who willingly travel to Milwaukee on vacation days are people obsessed with fly fishing in muggy ---- environments, and hunters, that's it. It will never attract FA's, so barring Giannis luck or tanking, they are perpetually screwed until the league adopts an NFL style Salary Cap and even then, it would still be a problem.

I feel bad for them, this is like a diet version of when we traded a top pick in '09 for nothing. the entire fanbase knew it was clinically insane, and we were left with just praying it was wasn't a full scale disaster, and was instead, just a clear loss and a failure, like say the current Deni trade. Instead of course, Curry became the best player drafted in that what, 2009-2017 era, and we got ---- all from the assets acquired (indeed they were so bad they actually accelerated the implosion and collapse of the that iteration of the franchise). I don't think the Bucks deal is that bad, I'm more in wait and see mode with AJ, whereas Curry, and Rubio were always, at bare minimum, looking like future good players in terms of floor, with the potential to be great, we don't know what AJ is, the problem is that AJ is exactly the kind of player Milwaukee should have kept around to build around in the post Giannis world of '26 or '27, instead, they have nothing, and it's gonna be a viking funeral level "ashes burning to sea" scenario for them while we got a player with the potential to be a top 5 asset from the crappy '24 class for basically nothing.

Tragic for them, but for us, after 45 years of misery, we deserve some luck (and an actual intelligent FO), including in the lottery in '25 and '26.

Not really rubbing their noses in it, but...did you forget Milwaukee won the NBA Championship 4 years ago?

[The Consiglieri]

Flagg/Harper or not, I don't think we'll have much trouble holding on to that pick. right now, the 8th worst team is at 32-44. Hence a 34 or 35 win season. We are not getting there next year!

Doesn't mean there is no deal, Blockwatcher -- what do you have in mind?

The Knicks are so close to the 2nd apron I can’t wrap my head around a logical deal between just our teams. Maybe a sign and trade involving Precious Achiuwa? With Smart or Kispert going to another team? I don’t really know who’s kicking the tires on either of them.

I truly don’t know how eager the wizards would be to get that pick back under control so I can’t speak to what player you would send out. Here’s something outta left field.
Wiz get their pick and Achiuwa
Suns swap is voided
Knicks get Nick Richards

Zero chance the Wiz would void the Suns swap. It likely doubles their chances of a top 4 pick. The team has shown a willingness to trade for big contracts though to help a team drop below the 2nd apron.

Trade pieces for the right price: Smart, Kispert, Middleton when he picks up his option, Villanova player Saddiq Bey, Poole if the right deal comes along. But I think Thibs might be more interested in a productive Big like Richaun Holmes. Cheap, unguaranteed and productive. But for us to give you significant cap relief we'd want more than a cancellation of a pick that the odds are against us giving up anyway. And flat no on erasing the PHX pick. We are expecting to extract full value over the years for the Beal trade.

Looking at the Knicks cap, oof, you really have no one you can trade to burn your cap down. Achiuwa? he's not under contract with you next year. Unrestricted free agent. Not a player we want, so no point in the sign and trade.

Mitchell Robinson for Richaun Holmes is about the only thing you're looking at. If the Knicks send incentive.

Yep, you always summarize it quite nicely. We all know that we finally have a FO with team building sense at this point. They may lose a trade here or there potentially (Deni deal, not trading Kuzma in Feb of '24), but their overall approach (especially for a franchise that stupidly sat on their hands when they should have traded Beal '19-'22 and thus lost their best chance at recouping a gigantic pile of flash-rebuild assets like OKC in particular and Houston to a lesser extent got during their tear downs) has been fantastic in terms of grand strategy, and now we all know the roster was built to tank '24, '25 and '26, 2 of the 3 being mega elite top heavy classes, and then likely tank in the more 5-10 slotted zone circa '27 (unless we land back to back superstars in '25 and '26, in which case we have no idea how '26-'27 plays out). So the smart FO (the first we've had since Daddy Ferry during the Reagan era) was smart enough to design trades that can allow us to potentially swoop back into lotteries in '28 and '29 and 30, either when our rebuild has worked, to allow us to double dip w/other peoples assets (like OKC now, and the Celtics last decade) or utilize those assets to try for a second attempt at rebuilding if we get screwed in '25-'26.

Basically, we've got multiple pathways forward in the '25-'30 window that can allow for two separate routes for a successful rebuild, and as doc said, there's no chance whatsoever they'll be stupid enough to trade away these options. They are too damn critical to the build if its successful, and to the alternate pathway if it isn't. It's not remotely worth protecting a '26 1st that in such a scenario would be out of the blue chip zone anyway. We're keeping the swaps, period.

[The Consiglieri]

If you'd like to engage in some mild schadenfreude: viewtopic.php?f=21&t=2437642&start=1000


Feels nice to be on the winning side of a trade for once...

Read on Twitter

I wouldn't rub their nose in it. They've been like a diet version of us for decades: mostly utterly hopeless, but their story is even worse, as they will always perpetually suck unless they pull a Giannis out of their rear or via lottery tanking generally speaking. We know if this franchise ever gets turned around, while DC wouldn't be attractive to the degree NYC, LA, or Miami are, it would still be in that tier below that, it wouldn't be in the utterly hopeless cohort (Charlotte, Orlando, Milwaukee, Indiana etc), it would attract FA's. It just has been an NBA backwater for 45 years, no success whatsoever, and no mega elite big names in 30 years (Webber) and only the 1 when it comes to him since the seventies. No success, widely understood terrible FO and ownership since Jimmy Carter etc, but it has meant the potential of the city was sleeping, rather than dead, like say a Charlotte or Milwaukee.

So I'm never gonna indulge the schadenfreude, Milwaukee fans will never attract elite players no matter how good they are because its freaking Milwaukee. The only people who willingly travel to Milwaukee on vacation days are people obsessed with fly fishing in muggy ---- environments, and hunters, that's it. It will never attract FA's, so barring Giannis luck or tanking, they are perpetually screwed until the league adopts an NFL style Salary Cap and even then, it would still be a problem.

I feel bad for them, this is like a diet version of when we traded a top pick in '09 for nothing. the entire fanbase knew it was clinically insane, and we were left with just praying it was wasn't a full scale disaster, and was instead, just a clear loss and a failure, like say the current Deni trade. Instead of course, Curry became the best player drafted in that what, 2009-2017 era, and we got ---- all from the assets acquired (indeed they were so bad they actually accelerated the implosion and collapse of the that iteration of the franchise). I don't think the Bucks deal is that bad, I'm more in wait and see mode with AJ, whereas Curry, and Rubio were always, at bare minimum, looking like future good players in terms of floor, with the potential to be great, we don't know what AJ is, the problem is that AJ is exactly the kind of player Milwaukee should have kept around to build around in the post Giannis world of '26 or '27, instead, they have nothing, and it's gonna be a viking funeral level "ashes burning to sea" scenario for them while we got a player with the potential to be a top 5 asset from the crappy '24 class for basically nothing.

Tragic for them, but for us, after 45 years of misery, we deserve some luck (and an actual intelligent FO), including in the lottery in '25 and '26.

Not really rubbing their noses in it, but...did you forget Milwaukee won the NBA Championship 4 years ago?

I know, I just feel bad for them because I know whats coming and some of them get it too, while some of them will be in denial, like some of are fans were about what Beal would do once he had the leverage to do it. Giannis is leaving, and when that happens, the roof will cave in, and at bare minimum, they'll probably suck for a half a decade with no hope whatsoever, barring a ton of luck. Which is why I mentioned elsewhere, as a GM there, I would have already traded him to OKC, for goodies and ammo for the '25 and '26 loaded top heavy drafts, but fans would have gone insane (I just wouldn't care because its the right thing to do).

As for the championship, they'll always have that, yes, but they had infinite supply of decades of suck before it, and a lot more in front of them barring some Spurs (Robinson, Duncan, Wemby #1 overall luck in 3 of the past 5 decades, plus landing Leonard in a mega trade etc) level luck. So I'm empathetic.

[doclinkin]

Yep, you always summarize it quite nicely.

Who me? Summarize?

[AFM]

Yep, you always summarize it quite nicely.

Who me? Summarize?

“An intellectual says a simple thing in a hard way. An artist says a hard thing in a simple way.”

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If you'd like to engage in some mild schadenfreude: viewtopic.php?f=21&t=2437642&start=1000


Feels nice to be on the winning side of a trade for once...

Read on Twitter

After the Kuzma trade, what did the Wizards say to the Bucks?

https://youtu.be/H7O17O1t-9g?si=Mier1nJR1lPwwBmM