Lather me with blather -- DRAFT thread 4

[fishercob]

So word has it that our own Tommy Sheppard was scouting Vesely today at the Serbian league championship -- and that Jan delivered with 18 and 5, (7-9 from the field, 2-3 from deep) despite a bunch of turnovers and another poor showing from the line.

"ABV" has become a popular mantra around here, so for the sport of it, I'll defend Vesely as a draft prospect.

For all his shortcomings, Vesely is a winner -- a key cog on a championship team playing against grown-ass men in a very physical FIBA setting.

There's a burning desire to compare every draft prospect to a past or current NBA player, so as to provide context and project their success. Vesely has a clear comparison, in Andrei Kirlinko. AK47 was never much of a shooter either, but he was a total stat stuffer and a menace on the defensive end. He was never super quick, but he was long as hell, smart and competitive, and guarded (and bothered) everyone from Kobe to KG. He's won a lot of games and a lot of playoff games. While he's not a franchise cornerstone, he's an excellent role player -- and at his peak was an elite, championship-level glue guy.

Some things to like about Jan: competitive fire, pride, in your faceness -- he wants to dunk everything on everyone, so as to make a point. You have to think that projects will for his growth once NBA coaches, nutritionists, trainers, et al get their claws into him.

I can see the logic in taking Vesely -- the 6'11 kid who has won against adults -- over the 6'7 Leonard. Neither can shoot, but Jan is bigger and has more upside. The FT things is of a little concern, but his shot is reported not to be broken. The problem may be between his ears, and with a Hopla tweak here or there, he may get into the 70's fairly quickly.

There's a silly argument made against taking certain guys who aren't pure shooters because of concerns over pairing them with Wall's iffy jumper. I have news for you all: if Wall doesn't improve his J, the Wiz aren't going anywhere anyway (Boston's Big 3 ain't walkin through that door). I'm not worried that Wall won't improve his shot, and it would be short-sighted to focus solely on what a prospect cannot do versus what he can. Wall and Vesely could create defensive havoc and excel in transition.

Nice video breakdown:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QZxGrVco3o&feature=player_embedded#at=209[/youtube]

[Benjammin]

I personally don't see enough upside in Williams to warrant McGee and the 6th. He's a tweener without a true position and is an average defensive player at best.

Straight up, I'd think long and hard about it, but to me the 6th is a deal breaker.

Bigs with McGee's upside come around very rarely, and if you include him in a deal you had better hit homerun with your future selection.

^^^^^
This my friends is the succinct gospel on this subject. Read it, learn it, embrace it.

[fishercob]

Can we breakdown Williams' game for just a second, because I think people are falling in love with the thought of having him and not really the player.

WizD has a point...Derrick Williams is Jamison with somewhat better defensive instincts. He's not going to be a superstar in this league solely due to the fact he's a tweener, and not a good tweener. He's going to be Jamison like in the sense that he's too slow to cover small forwards and too short to cover power forwards. The guy is 6'8, 250 right now. He's gained alot of bad weight since the end of the college basketball season. Quite frankly, I think Marcus Morris can be the same type of player DWill is -- except MM will come without sacrificing any assets. Hell, you can get MM and and extra pick from lets say, the Bobcats, and I think that would be a MUCH more effective use of our assets.

And for anyone who thinks DWill is that much better of a player than MM -- there's measurements are similar.

They both are the same height, although MM is a solid 230, and Williams is a jiggly 250. DWill has a better wingspan and standing reach (slightly) but both faired the same in the no step vert. DWill pressed more reps, but was slower in the sprint. I honestly don't see why the tweener label has been attached to MM yet no one knows what DWill's actual position is.

Watch the move at the 0:15 mark in this vid and explain to me why he can't play small forward in the NBA. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Bya5ZzdeXw[/youtube]

What skill does he not posess? The fact that he turns his back on smaller players, sticks his ass in their stomachs and backs them down just says that he's smart. he's no different from Melo and Pierce in that regard.

I don't see the "too slow to cover SF's" at all. What non-elite SF is going to abuse him with quickness on a regular basis?

[TGW]

^^ A player like Wilson Chandler for example would probably kill DWill. A Batum or even a Richard Jefferson type slashing small forward would as well. Let's not even talk about Lebron or Melo.

I'm not saying DWill isn't going to be a good player, because he will probably be the most productive player in this draft from a statistical standpoint. I guess what I'm trying to say is that he has bigtime question marks and that we shouldn't automatically assume he's going to be a more effective player than McGee.

[tontoz]

Al Horford weighed 3 pounds less than DWill at the combine. Horford's standing reach is 1" less than DWill. Horford jumped 1" higher and did 1 more rep on the bench. DWill beat Horford in the sprint (3.23 vs 3.37).

DWill definitely has the size to play the 4 on both ends. no question. He also has the athleticism and skills to spend time at the 3.

Ideally i would like to see him play the stretch 4 role with another shooter at the 3. That will really space out the floor with Nick at the 2 and allow Wall/Crawford to get into the lane with much more space to operate.

Again I am not at all convinced that McGee, 6, 18 is on the table. But if the opportunity to get DWill is there i think the Wiz have to go for it. I don't think it will take that much. My guess is that it would take McGee and the 6th which is obviously a lot. Or the 18th can be thrown in while Minny gives up something else.

[Ruzious]

Fish, there's really no reason to compare Vesely to AK - other than they're both European and kindasortamaybe look alike. AK was as good a defender as you could find, while the reports are that teams search out Vesely to take advantage of his defensive shortcomings. AK could play PF because of his defense. Vesely would be a joke there. He has lousy hands, has never been a consistent shooter. He's a good athlete for a 6'11 pencil neck, but he's not even above average for a 3. Seriously, there isn't even 1 facet of the game that he's good at. Maybe I'm being unfair, but I'd expect the 6th pick in the draft to be... good... at something. If he's not back in Europe within 3 years, I'll be very surprised.

[Ruzious]

^^ A player like Wilson Chandler for example would probably kill DWill. A Batum or even a Richard Jefferson type slashing small forward would as well. Let's not even talk about Lebron or Melo.

I'm not saying DWill isn't going to be a good player, because he will probably be the most productive player in this draft from a statistical standpoint. I guess what I'm trying to say is that he has bigtime question marks and that we shouldn't automatically assume he's going to be a more effective player than McGee.

This is getting silly. He's most likely going to be an outstanding player. He's not going to be a 1st team all defender, but he's more than capable of covering guys like Wilson Chandler and Richard Jefferson. He's a tweener in a good way. He can play either position effectively - though if he plays the 3, he should lose some weight.

[Benjammin]

Yeah, I coined the ABC club some years ago against Childress and I'm happy to join the ABV (Vesely) club for this draft (unless he's picked around 11 or 12). I don't see the great defense, his offense is from hunger, and he doesn't rebound well. Other than that, he's awesome though. He could be a fine successor to Jared Jeffries though in looking active without accomplishing much.

I would reluctantly trade McGee straight up to get Derrick Williams, any more than that and I would be less likely to approve.

Otherwise, standing pat at 6, take the best of who's left between Kanter, Johnny V, and Biyombo. Avoid Vesely, Leonard, or Morris unless there's a trade down into the 9-13 range. If I'm going to take a chance on someone with questions, I'd rather go big and sort them out later. Big guys with potential are usually easily moveable.

[fishercob]

Fish, there's really no reason to compare Vesely to AK - other than they're both European and kindasortamaybe look alike. AK was as good a defender as you could find, while the reports are that teams search out Vesely to take advantage of his defensive shortcomings. AK could play PF because of his defense. Vesely would be a joke there. He has lousy hands, has never been a consistent shooter. He's a good athlete for a 6'11 pencil neck, but he's not even above average for a 3. Seriously, there isn't even 1 facet of the game that he's good at. Maybe I'm being unfair, but I'd expect the 6th pick in the draft to be... good... at something. If he's not back in Europe within 3 years, I'll be very surprised.

I'm amazed by your certitude. This is some definitive sh*t right here. I know you've never seen Ves play in person. Have you ever watched a full game of his (let alone multiple full games) or just highlight packages? How do you think his had hands most manifests itself in his game now versus the type of NBA player he projects to be? Why do you think many NBA execs are said to be enamored of him when his current offensive shortcomings are in such plain view? Is there ANY chance that the opinion you've formed of Vesely could be wrong?

[Ed Wood]

To me tweener in a good way means a player who's capable of average to above average defense at two positions, offensive skill isn't really factored assuming the player is capable in at least one of those positions offensively, offensively I'm looking at aggregate skill on a team and not so much at whether each individual player is capable of filling the role expected of their position, it's defensively where I want somebody who can handle each position.

And despite my own reservations about Vesely I am moved to speak because I think the criticism is a little strong, currently. This is not going to sound very flattering but based the performance of each in the Euroleague Ves, to me, looks very similar to Josh Childress, at least statistically.

Now after this past year that's not a very good thing, but prior to going to Europe Josh Childress was actually pretty good at his job. Prior to this year Josh was a useful player because he was a really good finisher at the rim, a good rebounder for a wing, and a solid defender. He was an okay three point shooter despite not being a very good shooter because he was choosy, presumably (I wasn't watching Hawks games).

In Europe Childress was a solid rebounder, good for a wing, but not any better than he was in the NBA (and that's one thing he didn't suck at this past year) and Ves has been about as good. I won't say he looks like he'll be a good rebounder but I'd say we're north of Bargnani territory, maybe along the lines of Kirilenko (otherwise I don't think it's a great comparison, Kirilenko's smaller, more skilled, a much better passer and so on). Childress shot well at the rim, and he did again this past year, but not really better than Vesely, and Ves should be a good finisher in the NBA, though he'll have to figure out how to create offense to be more than a role player.

The two were roughly the same assist and turnover wise, and Childress isn't really a notable distributor so that's not cause for any optimism but Vesely has been maybe a little more active in the steal/block department, which doesn't really speak to his defense, but does speak to effort and to athleticism, which Ves obviously has. I can't say much nice about Ves as a high lottery pick but that's the one thing Ruz that I just don't see in your critique. Vesely definitely is very athletic, and could be a solid three defensively I think, if he had any kind of perimeter game.

Anyway, still a bad pick at six in most drafts, but later on in the draft I think he has his merits as a guy you don't expect to ever be more than a good roleplayer, and not like AK good, I mean AK would straight up **** this kid and his wife would be totally cool with it.

[pcbothwel]

Agree on both counts Ruz,
Vesely is a run jump athlete, not quite basketball athletic and he has no real strength or outstanding skill.
And this "2 foot jumper" thing being a weakness for Williams is stupid, its a strength. 2 foot jumpers are only bad for Guards(ie. Jason Richardson, Josh Selby, Baron Davis) because of how infrequently they jump off 2 feet, bigs are different. A big man that can get a rebound and go right back up for a monster dunk is a plus(ie. Dwight Howard)...The only thing that concerns me is his weight gain. I would tell him straight up "We know you want to play SF, and we want you at the 3(mostly)...but @ 230-235lbs"
If we got Williams at 2 and JV at 6 I would Sh*t myself.

[closg00]

Wow! Just listened to a Givony podcast, his two picks for allstars coming out of this draft?
Irving and......... Biyombo
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/DX- ... Locke-3741

Yeah, I just heard that too, though I don't know if Biyombo's going to put up the sort of numbers necessary to get on the squad. He looks more impact in non-boxscore aspects to me. 1st Team all defense seems more likely, though if he qualifies as a center, it would be a lot easier to make the cut.

For that same reason, I think Irving and Williams will have a hard time getting on the A-stars with how deep the league is in Points and Power Forwards. Irving as a point in the East in particular is tough; it almost seems like you could be a top 20 player in the game and never make the team.

On that same podcast, Locke ( who is an excellent analyst), said that Donatas Motiejunas was the best of the Euros, I found that interesting.

[Ruzious]

Fish, there's really no reason to compare Vesely to AK - other than they're both European and kindasortamaybe look alike. AK was as good a defender as you could find, while the reports are that teams search out Vesely to take advantage of his defensive shortcomings. AK could play PF because of his defense. Vesely would be a joke there. He has lousy hands, has never been a consistent shooter. He's a good athlete for a 6'11 pencil neck, but he's not even above average for a 3. Seriously, there isn't even 1 facet of the game that he's good at. Maybe I'm being unfair, but I'd expect the 6th pick in the draft to be... good... at something. If he's not back in Europe within 3 years, I'll be very surprised.

I'm amazed by your certitude. This is some definitive sh*t right here. I know you've never seen Ves play in person. Have you ever watched a full game of his (let alone multiple full games) or just highlight packages? How do you think his had hands most manifests itself in his game now versus the type of NBA player he projects to be? Why do you think many NBA execs are said to be enamored of him when his current offensive shortcomings are in such plain view? Is there ANY chance that the opinion you've formed of Vesely could be wrong?

Yes, and I'm pretty sure links to 2 complete games have been posted in the draft threads. If you disagree with me, point out any skill that he's good at, and show me a link that quotes an NBA exec saying he's anamored with him. As for his hands, there's a video done by the Jazz play by play guy who shows a few examples of how his poor hands lead to him dropping rebounds and turning the ball over when he tried to score inside. This guys done videos that have been widely posted on several of the prospects in an effort to detail their strengths and weaknesses. And as for defense, the scouting reports say that teams game plan to go at him.

Edit - Locke is the guy from Utah who does the scouting videos.

[pineappleheadindc]

Guys, I've gotten a suggestion via PM that we do a draft contest. Essentially, it would go like this:

1. You name the draftee selected at our spots.
2. Points given for each answer that's correct. I'm thinking that because the variance of possible selections is greater the later you go, you get (as an example) 5 points for being correct at #6, 10 points for being correct on #18, and #15 points for being correct on #34.

ALTERNATIVE IS

1. You name your entire first round draft.
2. The points system is already set up logically. The higher you go, the easier it is. So you get #1 correct, 1 point. You get #2 correct, 2 points, etc.

Winner gets complete bragging rights for an entire year.

Any thoughts or interest in this?

[hands11]

forecast: snarky with a good chance of sarcasm:

This team may need defenders, but I think they need to focus on that multidemsional scorer who can do it inside and out and get to the line and defend.

oh is that all? someone who can reliably get into the lane, move without the ball, shoot 37%+ from 3, and defend?



are we above drafting the next ben wallace, even without a fro?

yes

[WizarDynasty]

McGee and Wall are untouchable. I would probably put blatche into that category as well. Wizards have plenty of assets to move up four spots in the draft. i will give a top 6 lotto protection pick next year before i would consider adding McGee.
McGee and Wall are the wizard's identity. you don't mess with that. Both are two way players at the hardest positions to fill. D.Williams is a scorer and the wizards have historically been a poor perimeter defensive team.
I like Derrick Williams but McGee and Wall are untouchable. Dominant offensive perimeter players with below average defensive skills are alot easier to find in free agency than two way bigs who have the ability to dominate offensively and defensively.

[JonathanJoseph]

McGee and Wall are untouchable. I would probably put blatche into that category as well. Wizards have plenty of assets to move up four spots in the draft. i will give a top 6 lotto protection pick next year before i would consider adding McGee.
McGee and Wall are the wizard's identity. you don't mess with that. Both are two way players at the hardest positions to fill. D.Williams is a scorer and the wizards have historically been a poor perimeter defensive team.
I like Derrick Williams but McGee and Wall are untouchable. Dominant offensive perimeter players with below average defensive skills are alot easier to find in free agency than two way bigs who have the ability to dominate offensively and defensively.

I would agree with this and go so far as to include Blatche in the untouchable group.

The reality is this is draft time, and history shows that many of these players won't pan out and are being way overvalued right now. A year from now, I think a Javale McGee for Derrick Williams trade would be considered laughable, much less McGee plus a high 1st round pick.

I'm actually quite high on Derrick Williams and think he'll be a pretty good NBA player, but I'm not sure he's a multiple time all-star which is what he'd have to be to justify the trades being thrown around here. I'm still pretty surprised that Derrick Williams isn't being selected ahead of Irving.

I also admit that I have seen very little of some of these other guys, but on a cursory look at Youtube clips, neither Veseley or Leonard look like NBA caliber contributors to me.

I'm trying really hard not to spend too much time or energy getting caught up in uninformed draft discussion and baseless trade rumors, but what can I say? Apparently I'm a junkie like many of you.

[jivelikenice]

McGee and Wall are untouchable. I would probably put blatche into that category as well. Wizards have plenty of assets to move up four spots in the draft. i will give a top 6 lotto protection pick next year before i would consider adding McGee.
McGee and Wall are the wizard's identity. you don't mess with that. Both are two way players at the hardest positions to fill. D.Williams is a scorer and the wizards have historically been a poor perimeter defensive team.
I like Derrick Williams but McGee and Wall are untouchable. Dominant offensive perimeter players with below average defensive skills are alot easier to find in free agency than two way bigs who have the ability to dominate offensively and defensively.

Why would you probably put Blatche into that untouchable category??

[WizarDynasty]

he is a two way player when he doesn't have to log heavy minutes. He doesn't have a big motor or alot of lift when he jumps. Outside of those two areas, he is a above average skilled powerforward. He's one of the most skilled powerforwards of his age group and he is signed to a reasonable contract. The wizards need a close to starting quality big coming off the bench so that our starter can pick and choose when to cash in their energy reserves each game and not have to worry about the huge drop off when they go to the bench or become to fatigued that they should be on the bench but can't because they don't have suitable backups.

[Ed Wood]

So everybody gets to be a two way big now.