The Tank Watch has expired. Time to cheer to win again!

gesa2 · Post #281 » by **gesa2** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 4:43 pm

From fishercobs opening post in the draft lottery thread:

With the Wizards all but locked in to the second worst record, the Wizards' odds will break out as follows:

19.9% chance at #1 pick
18.8% chance at #2 pick (38.7% chance of picking 1 or 2)
17.1% chance at #3 pick (55.8% chance of picking top 3)
31.9% chance at #4 pick (87.7% chance of pick top 4)
12.3% chance at #5 pick (44.2% chance of picking 4th or 5th)

edited for spelling

Jay81 · Post #282 » by **Jay81** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 5:41 pm

I noticed New Orleans is not tanking...they are actually trying to win games. I wonder if they have already been told that they are getting the #1 pick and to play the season out with integrity. Maybe they dont care about 2nd,3rd or 4th worst record because they(Tom Benson) have been promised the #1 pick already

The Consiglieri · Post #283 » by **The Consiglieri** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 6:35 pm

gesa2 wrote:From fishercobs opening post in the draft lottery thread:

With the Wizards all but locked in to the second worst record, the Wizards' odds will break out as follows:

19.9% chance at #1 pick
18.8% chance at #2 pick (38.7% chance of picking 1 or 2)
17.1% chance at #3 pick (55.8% chance of picking top 3)
31.9% chance at #4 pick (87.7% chance of pick top 4)
12.3% chance at #5 pick (44.2% chance of picking 4th or 5th)

edited for spelling

Thanks, so the odds are we end up top 3, and we almost certainly end up top 4 (I was intrigued, to say the least, of the exceptionally consistent results in recent years in which teams highly unfavored to win this thing, won it. I was listening to sportstalk of some sort recently, forgot what, and they were discussing the various lottery results and the widespread belief that the lottery is rigged, and it is funny because generally speaking, there's a justifiable reason for every odd result to have been rigged, a believeable one.

That being said, I find it EXCEPTIONALLY HARD TO BELIEVE that it is still rigged today (not sure if the Ewing draft was rigged, though I'd lean toward YES if it wasn't for the legal ramifications) because the financial pay off for getting the big prize in a great #1 draft is so enormous, that if certain owners got hosed, I can't possibly imagine them not suing, if they got whiffs of it being rigged. Additionally w/all the media around today, its pretty much impossible to keep secrets secret anymore. Just imagine if Dan Snyder owned the team with the #1 pick in '85 and didn't get Ewing, or AL Davis owned the #1 pick prelottery in '03, and didnt get LeBron? At even the slightest hint f something fishy there would have been enormous law suits.

I get the skepticism, and i think Stern is an unbelievably stupid man (and he's not) to keep this thing behind closed doors still. It should be done in the public eye, clear as day, he seems to be in total denial about the widespread belief that the lottery is rigged to manipulate storylines and markets, and that playoff officiating is often rigged to get the right teams to the finals (the total screwjob of the Kings a decade ago being a huge example). Compare that to the NFL where all fans believe the 2005 super bowl (Steelers/Seahawks) in which a blatantly obvious blown call decided the outcome was a product of imcompetence, rather than rigging. The NFL earned this trust by how professional they are in addressing gambling issues, and misconduct at all levels. I hate Goodell, but even I can admit that the NFL would never allow what has been rampant in the NBA for decades, absolute mistrust of the integrity of the game, and its results, across the board.

JonathanJoseph · Post #284 » by **JonathanJoseph** » Mon Apr 16, 2012 7:11 pm

The Consiglieri wrote:
gesa2 wrote:From fishercobs opening post in the draft lottery thread:

With the Wizards all but locked in to the second worst record, the Wizards' odds will break out as follows:

19.9% chance at #1 pick
18.8% chance at #2 pick (38.7% chance of picking 1 or 2)
17.1% chance at #3 pick (55.8% chance of picking top 3)
31.9% chance at #4 pick (87.7% chance of pick top 4)
12.3% chance at #5 pick (44.2% chance of picking 4th or 5th)

edited for spelling

Thanks, so the odds are we end up top 3, and we almost certainly end up top 4 (I was intrigued, to say the least, of the exceptionally consistent results in recent years in which teams highly unfavored to win this thing, won it. I was listening to sportstalk of some sort recently, forgot what, and they were discussing the various lottery results and the widespread belief that the lottery is rigged, and it is funny because generally speaking, there's a justifiable reason for every odd result to have been rigged, a believeable one.

That being said, I find it EXCEPTIONALLY HARD TO BELIEVE that it is still rigged today (not sure if the Ewing draft was rigged, though I'd lean toward YES if it wasn't for the legal ramifications) because the financial pay off for getting the big prize in a great #1 draft is so enormous, that if certain owners got hosed, I can't possibly imagine them not suing, if they got whiffs of it being rigged. Additionally w/all the media around today, its pretty much impossible to keep secrets secret anymore. Just imagine if Dan Snyder owned the team with the #1 pick in '85 and didn't get Ewing, or AL Davis owned the #1 pick prelottery in '03, and didnt get LeBron? At even the slightest hint f something fishy there would have been enormous law suits.

I get the skepticism, and i think Stern is an unbelievably stupid man (and he's not) to keep this thing behind closed doors still. It should be done in the public eye, clear as day, he seems to be in total denial about the widespread belief that the lottery is rigged to manipulate storylines and markets, and that playoff officiating is often rigged to get the right teams to the finals (the total screwjob of the Kings a decade ago being a huge example). Compare that to the NFL where all fans believe the 2005 super bowl (Steelers/Seahawks) in which a blatantly obvious blown call decided the outcome was a product of imcompetence, rather than rigging. The NFL earned this trust by how professional they are in addressing gambling issues, and misconduct at all levels. I hate Goodell, but even I can admit that the NFL would never allow what has been rampant in the NBA for decades, absolute mistrust of the integrity of the game, and its results, across the board.

I think there's far too much at stake for the lottery to be fixed. There are accountants and representatives from teams involved so it would be hard to keep that secret. Plus, owners like Leonsis or Mark Cuban aren't going to but enormous sports franchises and then let the success factors be fixed. The lawsuit potential is enormous and I don't think Stern is dumb enough to do that. It might kill or do substantial damage to the league.

Would make a helluva story if it were true though.

hands11 · Post #285 » by **hands11** » Wed Apr 18, 2012 2:03 am

gesa2 wrote:From fishercobs opening post in the draft lottery thread:

With the Wizards all but locked in to the second worst record, the Wizards' odds will break out as follows:

19.9% chance at #1 pick
18.8% chance at #2 pick (38.7% chance of picking 1 or 2)
17.1% chance at #3 pick (55.8% chance of picking top 3)
31.9% chance at #4 pick (87.7% chance of pick top 4)
12.3% chance at #5 pick (44.2% chance of picking 4th or 5th)

edited for spelling

12.3% chance at #5 pick (44.2% chance of picking 4th or 5th)

Not follow this line. I though if we were second seed we were a 100% lock for a top 5 pick.

7-Day Dray · Post #286 » by **7-Day Dray** » Wed Apr 18, 2012 2:14 am

hands11 wrote:
gesa2 wrote:From fishercobs opening post in the draft lottery thread:

With the Wizards all but locked in to the second worst record, the Wizards' odds will break out as follows:

19.9% chance at #1 pick
18.8% chance at #2 pick (38.7% chance of picking 1 or 2)
17.1% chance at #3 pick (55.8% chance of picking top 3)
31.9% chance at #4 pick (87.7% chance of pick top 4)
12.3% chance at #5 pick (44.2% chance of picking 4th or 5th)

edited for spelling

12.3% chance at #5 pick (44.2% chance of picking 4th or 5th)

Not follow this line. I though if we were second seed we were a 100% lock for a top 5 pick.

We are a lock for the top 5.

hands11 · Post #287 » by **hands11** » Wed Apr 18, 2012 3:58 am

But are we just yet? I don't think so.

5 games to go and their is only a 4 game spreed.

NO has 4 road games, 1 at home and play some good teams.

We have 2 road games. One is against Cleveland and one of our home games is against Charlotte.

Its not a lock just yet. We need NO to keep winning if we want to enjoy the end of the season watching the team play to win. And I know we want to take down Miami. That would be a great end to the season to close out winning against Chicago and against Miami ( twice )

Let hope NO has MEM's number and they win in MEM on Wed. We need them to stay on a roll so we can go for the Ws and still keep 2nd seed.

The Wiz may have to design a tank against MIK to get a little breathing room so they can close the season going all out. I don't think the tank plan included winning in CHI. Nene was dressed and they didn't even play him. They shut down Mason and didnt even play his replacement.

I think Randy went off script in coaching up a win in that one. He needed that feather in his cap to help his chances of getting an invite to return.

hands11 · Post #288 » by **hands11** » Thu Apr 19, 2012 2:00 am

NO losing to MEM 91-69

We just took out MIK.

The lead slips to 3

4 games to go.

7-Day Dray · Post #289 » by **7-Day Dray** » Thu Apr 19, 2012 2:17 am

NO going into desperation tanking lol. Shut down Kaman for the rest of the year and have sat out Eric Gordon the last two games due to "Rest".

Jay81 · Post #290 » by **Jay81** » Thu Apr 19, 2012 3:42 am

Time to give wall Crawford and vesley a day or two off

DallasShalDune · Post #291 » by **DallasShalDune** » Thu Apr 19, 2012 4:29 am

The magic number is still 2. Let's keep the tank going, but with dignity. Lose to Miami, and beat the Cavs and Cats!

hands11 · Post #292 » by **hands11** » Thu Apr 19, 2012 5:30 am

7-Day Dray wrote:NO going into desperation tanking lol. Shut down Kaman for the rest of the year and have sat out Eric Gordon the last two games due to "Rest".

The title of this tread needs changed. The tank watch has not expired.

I went to the NO thread to tell them they can not have our 2nd seed only no one was there. Ghost town.

verbal8 · Post #293 » by **verbal8** » Thu Apr 19, 2012 10:37 am

hands11 wrote:
7-Day Dray wrote:NO going into desperation tanking lol. Shut down Kaman for the rest of the year and have sat out Eric Gordon the last two games due to "Rest".

The title of this tread needs changed. The tank watch has not expired.

I went to the NO thread to tell them they can not have our 2nd seed only no one was there. Ghost town.

Their RealGM posters are tanking.

verbal8 · Post #294 » by **verbal8** » Thu Apr 19, 2012 10:45 am

DallasShalDune wrote:The magic number is still 2. Let's keep the tank going, but with dignity. Lose to Miami, and beat the Cavs and Cats!

I would rather beat Miami and lose to the bottom dwellers. I figure the Wizards have to lose twice to keep the tank intact. The Hornets are terrible without Gordon and have some pretty motivated opponents(Rockets twice and the Clippers playing for seeding).

Benjammin · Post #295 » by **Benjammin** » Fri Apr 20, 2012 2:48 am

New Orleans wins yet again. The magic number is now 1 (either another New Orleans win or Washington loss) and the Wizards have the second most number of balls.

Ed Wood · Post #296 » by **Ed Wood** » Fri Apr 20, 2012 2:55 am

Well no wonder, sidelining Chris Kaman just demonstrates a fundamental failure to understand what it takes to loose in the NBA.

willbcocks · Post #297 » by **willbcocks** » Fri Apr 20, 2012 3:04 am

NO is a paper tank. What a terrible winning streak they're on.

hands11 · Post #298 » by **hands11** » Fri Apr 20, 2012 3:07 am

Benjammin wrote:New Orleans wins yet again. The magic number is now 1 (either another New Orleans win or Washington loss) and the Wizards have the second most number of balls.

Wow.

OT against ATL.

http://scores.espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=320419003

Now that was a gift to the Wizards. No doubt the basketball God will shine on them for a win like this. Who are we kidding, we know they are getting the #1 The team was just sold. Wonder if that was part of the package.

But this helps us to secure a top 5. Problem is, we really need a top 4. I'm still not comfortable. I don't want to tie them and I see the Wizard able to win at least 2 more. Question is, while they monster and go into Miami and take them down. I sure want to see that. As long as NO keeps winning, it doesn't really matter. They are on a nice run but the last 3 games are on the road.

Go New Orleans. One more win. You can do it.

7-Day Dray · Post #299 » by **7-Day Dray** » Fri Apr 20, 2012 3:11 am

Ed Wood wrote:Well no wonder, sidelining Chris Kaman just demonstrates a fundamental failure to understand what it takes to loose in the NBA.

Kaman is a good player. They're a better team with him.

Ed Wood · Post #300 » by **Ed Wood** » Fri Apr 20, 2012 3:23 am

7-Day Dray wrote:
Ed Wood wrote:Well no wonder, sidelining Chris Kaman just demonstrates a fundamental failure to understand what it takes to loose in the NBA.

Kaman is a good player. They're a better team with him.

Nah, he's bad.