Predict the Eastern Conference Standings

[nate33]

James does play the 4 sometimes, that's why he worked on his post-moves.

How often do you think he is in as the PF ? As a percentage. Just wondering. I had always thought of him as lining up at the SF.

They don't play him at PF much in the regular season because they don't want to wear him down. In the playoffs, he played PF almost the entire time. And he was damn good at it. He causes such mismatches.

[fugop]

82games lists James as PF on 24% of his minutes.

http://www.82games.com/1112/11MIA8.HTM

[I_Like_Dirt]

They don't play him at PF much in the regular season because they don't want to wear him down. In the playoffs, he played PF almost the entire time. And he was damn good at it. He causes such mismatches.

I'm not so sure it's about wearing down, although I think that's a positive side effect. I think it's more that they aren't as worried about winning every game as much in the regular season so play a more traditional lineup to keep James happy and then did what they needed to do in the playoffs regardless of what James wanted. A bit of give and take seems to be working well for the Heat right now. Lebron has always hated playing PF but titles have a way of changing a player's tune. It's no shocker he's committing a little more to that endeavor after winning his first. That Bron/Bosh PF/C combo is just absolutely devastating and isn't even really something you can take advantage of with physical strength because more physical bigs are just going to commit offensive fouls and other turnovers against them.

[nate33]

They don't play him at PF much in the regular season because they don't want to wear him down. In the playoffs, he played PF almost the entire time. And he was damn good at it. He causes such mismatches.

I'm not so sure it's about wearing down, although I think that's a positive side effect. I think it's more that they aren't as worried about winning every game as much in the regular season so play a more traditional lineup to keep James happy and then did what they needed to do in the playoffs regardless of what James wanted. A bit of give and take seems to be working well for the Heat right now. Lebron has always hated playing PF but titles have a way of changing a player's tune. It's no shocker he's committing a little more to that endeavor after winning his first. That Bron/Bosh PF/C combo is just absolutely devastating and isn't even really something you can take advantage of with physical strength because more physical bigs are just going to commit offensive fouls and other turnovers against them.

I say they don't want to wear him down. You say he doesn't like PF and they play him at SF to keep him happy. I think we're saying pretty much the same thing. Lebron doesn't like playing PF because it wears him down.

[hands11]

So the question still stands.

Who have a better front 5

Nene, Okafor, Keven, Ves, Booker

vs

??

They may not have the best starting two, but who has a better 5 at C and PF defensively ?

[I_Like_Dirt]

[So the question still stands.

Who have a better front 5

Nene, Okafor, Keven, Ves, Booker

Honestly, the 4th and 5th bigs have a lot less to do with who has the best front 5 than the first 2 or 3 guys. Dwight Howard and a bunch of scrubs makes for a better front 5 than a bunch of decent players. The Heat with Lebron, Bosh, Haslem, Anthony and Harrellson seems quite a bit better to me. The Pacers have Hibbert, West, Granger (who plays some PF - if you're counting Vesely you count Granger), Mahinmi and Hansborough seem better to me as well. The Bulls still have Noah, Boozer, Gibson and Radmanovic, which seems better to me as well, although admittedly the Wizards 5th big is better than their 5th big, whoever that is. Don't get me wrong. I like the Wizards front 5. They just aren't the best in the east and their strength relies entirely on Nene caring/staying healthy.

[hands11]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/wi ... story.html

So it doesn't only happen to the Wizards.

Bynum had injections of plasma-rich platelets that supposedly stimulate healing in arthritis-affected areas in both of his knees.

The team said Bynum also had a bone bruise on his right knee. Bynum said the bone bruise was unrelated to the knee treatments.

[hands11]

http://www.nba.com/wizards/video/2012/1 ... mv-2236638

Its only 2 days into camp but damn they look good.

Things may not be lost after all.

I know this is a cut together video but lots of good stuff in here. Everyone is hitting from their spots. Lots of passing. Good quick decisions.

[nate33]

Don't fall into the trap, hands. Everyone looks good in training camp. Optimism abounds.

[payitforward]

http://www.nba.com/wizards/video/2012/10/04/Day2Night100312wmv-2236638

Its only 2 days into camp but damn they look good.

Things may not be lost after all.

I know this is a cut together video but lots of good stuff in here. Everyone is hitting from their spots. Lots of passing. Good quick decisions.

When I heard that some people actually like Kool-Aid, I thought "nah... it can't be." But you do like Kool-Aid, am I right?

And, come to think of it, what's wrong with Kool-Aid? I mean, it's sweet; it has good color. I think we may go undefeated. How hard can it be? After all, we shoot 100%.

[payitforward]

Wait... I know. We *can* go undefeated -- just extend training camp through the season. We play ourselves every night, and we never lose. Well... actually we lose every night. But we always win too!

[hands11]

Lets not go overboard.

My post was optimistic as in, they look better then I thought they would this soon and I saw some good stuff.

It was fun to watch.

That is hardly koolaid.

But what was in there was good. They did look crisp in their cuts. The ball moved well. People made quick decisions and the ball rarely stuck. And while it was a video only of made shots, the ones they made looked good. KS with a nice left hander. A few from range. Singleton on a drive, a corner 3 and a ally op. Booker from mid range. Beal from outside.

Interesting to note, I saw very little Crawford. I remember he drove the lane once and scored off contact. Not sure there was anything else of him.

[closg00]

Preseason kicks-off today, Boston is playing in Turkey.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/multim ... nba_bf2_a3

[Nivek]

Vegas over/under Win Projections

Code: Select all

EASTERN CONFERENCE
RANK    TEAM    O/U
1       MIA     60.5
2       BOS     51.5
3       IND     51.5
4       CHI     47.5
5       PHI     47.5
6       NYK     45.5
7       ATL     43.5
8       BRO     43.5
9       MIL     36.5
10      CLE     32.5
11      DET     32.5
12      TOR     31.5
13      WAS     31.5
14      ORL     24.5
15      CHA     21.5

WESTERN CONFERENCE
RANK    TEAM    O/U
1       OKC     60.5
2       LAL     59.5
3       SAS     55.5
4       DEN     49.5
5       LAC     48.5
6       MEM     48.5
7       DAL     45.5
8       UTA     42.5
9       MIN     39.5
10      POR     35.5
11      GSW     34.5
12      PHX     34.5
13      HOU     30.5
14      SAC     29.5
15      NOH     25.5



[closg00]

Is the projection post-Wall injury announcement?

[nate33]

Vegas over/under Win Projections

Code: Select all

EASTERN CONFERENCE
RANK    TEAM    O/U
1       MIA     60.5
2       BOS     51.5
3       IND     51.5
4       CHI     47.5
5       PHI     47.5
6       NYK     45.5
7       ATL     43.5
8       BRO     43.5
9       MIL     36.5
10      CLE     32.5
11      DET     32.5
12      TOR     31.5
13      WAS     31.5
14      ORL     24.5
15      CHA     21.5

WESTERN CONFERENCE
RANK    TEAM    O/U
1       OKC     60.5
2       LAL     59.5
3       SAS     55.5
4       DEN     49.5
5       LAC     48.5
6       MEM     48.5
7       DAL     45.5
8       UTA     42.5
9       MIN     39.5
10      POR     35.5
11      GSW     34.5
12      PHX     34.5
13      HOU     30.5
14      SAC     29.5
15      NOH     25.5



Wow. They have us below Detroit and Cleveland? I just don't get it. We had a superior SRS ranking than both teams last year, and we did much more in the offseason to improve. We had the higher pick and acquired a more NBA-ready player, and we added two NBA starters via trade, Okafor and Ariza. And that doesn't even factor the very high likelihood that our massive post-Nene-trade statistical improvement had at least some tangible foundation other than pure low-sample size error.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Vegas over/under Win Projections

Code: Select all

EASTERN CONFERENCE
RANK    TEAM    O/U
1       MIA     60.5
2       BOS     51.5
3       IND     51.5
4       CHI     47.5
5       PHI     47.5
6       NYK     45.5
7       ATL     43.5
8       BRO     43.5
9       MIL     36.5
10      CLE     32.5
11      DET     32.5
12      TOR     31.5
13      WAS     31.5
14      ORL     24.5
15      CHA     21.5

WESTERN CONFERENCE
RANK    TEAM    O/U
1       OKC     60.5
2       LAL     59.5
3       SAS     55.5
4       DEN     49.5
5       LAC     48.5
6       MEM     48.5
7       DAL     45.5
8       UTA     42.5
9       MIN     39.5
10      POR     35.5
11      GSW     34.5
12      PHX     34.5
13      HOU     30.5
14      SAC     29.5
15      NOH     25.5



The Bobcats will win more than 21.5. I don't bet but I will on that. The Hornets will win more than 25 games. I don't think the Suns will win 34 games. I don't think the Grizzlies will win 48.

I think Spurs will win far less games this season, just a hunch. It's over.

I think the Magic will win slightly less than 24 games. I also think the Wizards will win less than 31 games.

[nate33]

Vegas over/under Win Projections

Code: Select all

EASTERN CONFERENCE
RANK    TEAM    O/U
1       MIA     60.5
2       BOS     51.5
3       IND     51.5
4       CHI     47.5
5       PHI     47.5
6       NYK     45.5
7       ATL     43.5
8       BRO     43.5
9       MIL     36.5
10      CLE     32.5
11      DET     32.5
12      TOR     31.5
13      WAS     31.5
14      ORL     24.5
15      CHA     21.5

WESTERN CONFERENCE
RANK    TEAM    O/U
1       OKC     60.5
2       LAL     59.5
3       SAS     55.5
4       DEN     49.5
5       LAC     48.5
6       MEM     48.5
7       DAL     45.5
8       UTA     42.5
9       MIN     39.5
10      POR     35.5
11      GSW     34.5
12      PHX     34.5
13      HOU     30.5
14      SAC     29.5
15      NOH     25.5



The Bobcats will win more than 21.5. I don't bet but I will on that. The Hornets will win more than 25 games. I don't think the Suns will win 34 games. I don't think the Grizzlies will win 48.

I think Spurs will win far less games this season, just a hunch. It's over.

I think the Magic will win slightly less than 24 games. I also think the Wizards will win less than 31 games.

Our record last year extrapolated over 82 games was 25 wins. You don't think all the offseason changes are worth more than 5 wins?

We effectively traded McGee, Lewis and Young for Nene, Okafor, Ariza, Webster and Beal. We should also see some notable improvement from Wall, Vesely, Seraphin and Booker based on their age and work ethic. How can that not be worth 5 games?

[dobrojim]

I may be wrong but I'm thinking a betting line is established to equalize bets on either side.
(I know that's how point spreads in football work)
I guess one way to verify this is to add up the total number of Ws projected for all teams
and see if it equals the number of games.

(if true) This means our over under is a result of the perception of all the bettors.
Collective/average wisdom might be pretty good. Or not.

I have to wonder how good these numbers have been in the past.

[Nivek]

Jim: This is the line established by at least one Vegas oddsmaker before betting commences. Over at the APBRmetrics board, some of the members have been trying their own record-projection methods vs. Vegas for the past few years. The Vegas line usually comes closer to predicting final records than most of the stat-goober methods.