Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I

[Nivek]

Nivek or someone else on the board compared measurables of Beasley and Love as they were entering the draft. My recollection is that the numbers (size, speed, strength, leap, etc.) were remarkably similar, but contemporaneous descriptions of the two (also included in the post) seemed to defy these numbers, with Beasley described more as a fast and freakishly athletic player, and Love described more as a slower, floor bound, fundamentally sound player. Maybe there was a lot of stereotyping going on, and it may still follow Love.

I've been talking about that for awhile. Here's a handy little table showing measurables for Love, Beasley and the average drafted PF:

Code: Select all

CATEGORY    LOVE    BEASLEY AVG PF
HEIGHT      6-9.5   6-8.25  6-7.95
WEIGHT      255     239     235
StndRch     8-10    8-11      8-11
MaxVert     35.0    35.0    33.4
LaneAgil    11.17   11.06   11.55
Sprint      3.22    3.24    3.30
Bench       18      19      13.2


Only significant difference between Love and Beasely was body fat measure -- Love at 12.9% and Beasley at 7.7%.

And yet, the narratives on the two were hilariously uniform. Every scouting sight agreed that Beasley was an elite athlete with an NBA-ready body and that Love wasn't athletic enough to overcome his lack of size to play inside.

Really interesting players in a lot of ways. Both were extremely productive in college. Both were solidly better than average athletes for their position while both physically measured at norms for their position. Their YODA scores were nearly identical (excellent). Yet one has become one of the game's best players, and the other a bust.

I do wonder if Beasley's perceived elite athleticism worked against him in the pros. Everywhere he's been, his NBA team keeps trying to play him at SF. Maybe someone needs to play him at PF and see if he can do the job.

By the way, Beasley's (and Love's) combine scores for athleticism -- above average for a SF. Yet no one ever talked about making Love into a SF.

(Yes, I do think that perceptions in this case were affected by skin color.)

[pancakes3]

^ I think to a certain degree, Carmelo has suffered the same fate. He's more talented than Beasley but he's really found his groove this season playing PF instead of SF and exploiting the matchups there.

[Nivek]

Yeah. Knicks would do well to keep him there and use Amare as a C/PF off the bench.

[BruceO]

I also like Noel. He's in my top two with shabazz. Like was said before statistic I look for certain things that stand out and among big men I always find it interesting when their assists numbers are high. To me that leads more to winning basketball. it always shows me that that player has a basketball iq.

There was also a debate on realgm on what's better, a shot blocking big or a big that can defend the pick and roll. The ones who can defend both are elite and seems to me Noel has the tools for both shot blocking and the mobility and speed to defend the pick and roll. This will be his highest selling point. Good motor as well as good rebounding and he'll be a good starter. If he was better offensively and bigger like Drummond he'd be a monster. Hopefully with strength training he gets better and smarter.

Also like shabazz too. Both those players would be ideal starters on this team alongside nene and wall cause they can bring us a scoring threat, a rebounder and second defensive anchor. I think we need a scorer more unfortunately

[Dr Positivity]

Nivek or someone else on the board compared measurables of Beasley and Love as they were entering the draft. My recollection is that the numbers (size, speed, strength, leap, etc.) were remarkably similar, but contemporaneous descriptions of the two (also included in the post) seemed to defy these numbers, with Beasley described more as a fast and freakishly athletic player, and Love described more as a slower, floor bound, fundamentally sound player. Maybe there was a lot of stereotyping going on, and it may still follow Love.

I've been talking about that for awhile. Here's a handy little table showing measurables for Love, Beasley and the average drafted PF:

Code: Select all

CATEGORY    LOVE    BEASLEY AVG PF
HEIGHT      6-9.5   6-8.25  6-7.95
WEIGHT      255     239     235
StndRch     8-10    8-11      8-11
MaxVert     35.0    35.0    33.4
LaneAgil    11.17   11.06   11.55
Sprint      3.22    3.24    3.30
Bench       18      19      13.2


Only significant difference between Love and Beasely was body fat measure -- Love at 12.9% and Beasley at 7.7%.

And yet, the narratives on the two were hilariously uniform. Every scouting sight agreed that Beasley was an elite athlete with an NBA-ready body and that Love wasn't athletic enough to overcome his lack of size to play inside.

Really interesting players in a lot of ways. Both were extremely productive in college. Both were solidly better than average athletes for their position while both physically measured at norms for their position. Their YODA scores were nearly identical (excellent). Yet one has become one of the game's best players, and the other a bust.

I do wonder if Beasley's perceived elite athleticism worked against him in the pros. Everywhere he's been, his NBA team keeps trying to play him at SF. Maybe someone needs to play him at PF and see if he can do the job.

By the way, Beasley's (and Love's) combine scores for athleticism -- above average for a SF. Yet no one ever talked about making Love into a SF.

(Yes, I do think that perceptions in this case were affected by skin color.)

I like the Beasley and Love comparison because it seems like they have close to the same physical tools and the same amount of affinity for perimeter skill. So it really indicates just how much of an impact basketball IQ and a spatial feel the court matters. Beasley's work ethic and enigmatic attitude don't help either, but I really think the IQ is the vast majority of what separates them

[popper]

Question for anyone / everyone. Players like Josh Smith, Keven Love, Zach Randolph and Faried intrigue me with their overachieving accomplishments in the face of what appears to be average athleticism and physical appearance. Can their extraordinary mojo be quantified in some way to predict similar overachievers in future drafts?

Where's the green font?

Good one Halcyon. I deserved it. I was just curious as to why the four players I mentioned rebound so much better than other pros with similar measurables. Positioning? Reading the ball flight early and anticipating angles? Ability to push other players out of position? All of the above maybe? And finally, can those skills be taught?

If so, Seraphon could use a crash course.

[truwizfan4evr]

Does anyone like Cody Zeller?

[dangermouse]

The fact Noel is getting so many steals as well as blocks shows he just has good defensive instincts.

I still like Shabazz. If Nerlens had some O then he'd be an easy #1 pick.

[TheBigThree]

My top 3 at the moment would be Shabazz, Len and Noel, in that order.

I'm not sure what I'd do if we were stuck with Zeller. He just feels like an EG pick to me.

[truwizfan4evr]

Does anyone thinks Alex Polytheists has all-star potential

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Nivek or someone else on the board compared measurables of Beasley and Love as they were entering the draft. My recollection is that the numbers (size, speed, strength, leap, etc.) were remarkably similar, but contemporaneous descriptions of the two (also included in the post) seemed to defy these numbers, with Beasley described more as a fast and freakishly athletic player, and Love described more as a slower, floor bound, fundamentally sound player. Maybe there was a lot of stereotyping going on, and it may still follow Love.

I've been talking about that for awhile. Here's a handy little table showing measurables for Love, Beasley and the average drafted PF:

Code: Select all

CATEGORY    LOVE    BEASLEY AVG PF
HEIGHT      6-9.5   6-8.25  6-7.95
WEIGHT      255     239     235
StndRch     8-10    8-11      8-11
MaxVert     35.0    35.0    33.4
LaneAgil    11.17   11.06   11.55
Sprint      3.22    3.24    3.30
Bench       18      19      13.2


Only significant difference between Love and Beasely was body fat measure -- Love at 12.9% and Beasley at 7.7%.

And yet, the narratives on the two were hilariously uniform. Every scouting sight agreed that Beasley was an elite athlete with an NBA-ready body and that Love wasn't athletic enough to overcome his lack of size to play inside.

Really interesting players in a lot of ways. Both were extremely productive in college. Both were solidly better than average athletes for their position while both physically measured at norms for their position. Their YODA scores were nearly identical (excellent). Yet one has become one of the game's best players, and the other a bust.

I do wonder if Beasley's perceived elite athleticism worked against him in the pros. Everywhere he's been, his NBA team keeps trying to play him at SF. Maybe someone needs to play him at PF and see if he can do the job.

By the way, Beasley's (and Love's) combine scores for athleticism -- above average for a SF. Yet no one ever talked about making Love into a SF.

(Yes, I do think that perceptions in this case were affected by skin color.)

Nivek, three things come immediately to mind that to me explain the difference career progression.

1. Size difference. Love had an extra 16 (but probably more) pounds on Beasley. Love weighed 255 for the pre-draft measurement but I bet he weighed 5-10 points more before the weigh-in. Say the difference was more like s 260 to 240, twenty pounds. Love had the wide shoulders, girth, and solid base from day one in the NBA. He's a below-the-rim, positional rebounder. Beasley rebounds more similarly to a guy with Antawn Jamison's build. He's a narrow-framed athlete who has similar vertical reach and vertical jump to Love's, but he is smaller IMO.

2. Totally different background and mindsets. Kevin Love had a dad who was an NBA player. Wesley is his middle name after none other than Wes Unseld. Love's identity as a basketball player has always been that of an elite rebounder who also could throw great passes and who was a very accurate jump shooter. Love comes from a very well-to-do family. Mike Love of the Beach Boys is an uncle he's close to. His dad after the NBA worked security. Kevin Love has had strong familial ties. Even his aunt is relatively famous. He grew up in Oregon along the same time as Kyle Singler.

Beasley didn't have a relationship with his dad and now he's a young man with several kids. IIRC Michael Beasley is father to three children who live with him. His single mom raised him to age 14 and AAU coaches and an agent "took care of him after that". They got him to the league and he was a spectacular NCAA talent, but "Beas " came from poverty and instability in his home life.

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2011/10/28/ ... nsas-state

Beasley's trying to patch things up with his own dad. He didn't make it past the rookie symposium without testing positive for weed. And he is dealing with the rigors of the NBA.

Michael Beasley Sr. went on Jorge Sedano's show on 790 The Ticket, and gave some of the usual fatherly platitudes ("it wasn't his marijuana in the photo," etc.). But he did say that the pressures of transitioning to the NBA, especially as a number 2 pick, have been getting to Beasley:

He talks about how it's a job now. In college there wasn't a lot of pressure on him so he could go out and play, but now he's got high expectations and it's work now. I think that became kind of stressful for him going from playing 30 games to 82 games and the playoffs, and it probably took a toll on him."

To his credit, Beasley says that doesn't excuse his son's actions. He's not the only one dealing with professional stress, but his personal situation isn't helping matters:

You have to abide by team rules. I don't think that it was just him. A lot of other guys on the team have to do the same things. I don't think it's that. I really think it's the overwhelming responsibility of being a father. I think that's kind of catching up with him."

Kevin Love OTOH is more singularly focused on himself becoming a great NBA player. The other part about Love's mindset is that he is extremely knowledgeable and disciplined toward preparing his body to reach peak performance levels. I saw on NBATV a piece that featured Kevin Love's chef. Love hired his own chef in Minneapolis when he was 22 years old. Unlike guys like Kwame and John Wall, Love has been eating nutritionally rich food without high fats or starches. He eats like a world class athlete. In addition to eating like a world class athlete, in his free time Love transformed his body during the lockout by playing beach volleyball. Instead of being a family man at 23 (not that anything is wrong with that) Love lost a lot of weight and turned it to muscle. Nivek, the last thing is related to the "only difference" you noted above. I've found when "fat" guys play well there are the minority who really tone up and take their games to higher levels. Love and Charles Barkley come to mind as having done just that.

I believe the two players having such different challenges and obstacles has everything to do with their approach as pros. One guy is overwhelmed and the other is charting a course for great career success.

3. The college numbers were similar, but there should be an asterisk. Love played NCAA ball on a loaded UCLA team and that probably relatively decreased his YODA score from what it might have been. Darren Collison, Russell Westbrook, and Luc Mbah a Moute put up good numbers and are all NBA players. Note the rebounds were very similar between Mbah a Moute and Love.

http://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/confe ... sters/2008

At the other end of the spectrum, Micheal Beasley's Kansas State team had Bill Walker but no dominant rebounders and other significant scoring. Beasley put up greater stats out of being the main man by a lot. His tweener game ruled in the NCAA.

http://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/confe ... sters/2008


My Conclusion: The measurable information showed similarity between Kevin Love and Micheal Beasley but it didn't tell the whole story. Things that seem similar on the surface can be shown otherwise if due diligence is given to investigating the differences and digging deeper. Love and Beasley were IMO already miles apart coming into the NBA.

I like posting here because I get to share some insight on scouting. The reason guys like Ernie Grunfeld and other GMS don't get it right sometimes is they haven't given prospects a real close look. I enjoy giving prospects a closer look. I don't always do so but I sure would if they'd pay me.

[dandrews]

Does anyone thinks Alex Polytheists has all-star potential

With that quickness he could definitely be an all star

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Does anyone thinks Alex Polytheists has all-star potential

With that quickness he could definitely be an all star

Yep.

Sort of reminds me of Bernard King. Poythress is a bit bigger and he might be more of a PF than a SF. Wherever he plays, he's got big time scoring potential. Alex Poythress is highly skilled and he's also an intelligent, A-student. He is a very good prospect on the offensive end of the court and he's capable defensively. I'd call him a poor man's Carmelo Anthony, and maybe not that poor when all is said and done.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I like the Beasley and Love comparison because it seems like they have close to the same physical tools and the same amount of affinity for perimeter skill. So it really indicates just how much of an impact basketball IQ and a spatial feel the court matters. Beasley's work ethic and enigmatic attitude don't help either, but I really think the IQ is the vast majority of what separates them

He said in one sentence what I took a page to try and say.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Shabazz Muhammed is getting all the hype at SF for UCLA, but UCLA freshman Jordan Adams could be a good prospect in his own right.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jordan-Adams-7189/
http://www.uclabruins.com/sports/m-bask ... dan00.html

Adams is not an over-the-rim player. He's a stone cold shooter and a winner. Will his athleticism be enough to make it to the next level? I don't know. What I do know is right now, Adams frosh numbers look as good as Muhammed's.

Way back in the day everybody knew Albert King and Buck Williams were going to the NBA. Shabazz plays so high above the rim that he's a lock. Jordan Adams reminds me of a guy who played with Albert and Buck, Ernie Graham. The guy was one of the best players but he didn't make it in the NBA.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1097 ... 70/page/15

Ernest Graham, shooting guard/small forward, ‘77-‘81. Third star alongside King and Buck Williams could drive to the hoop and hit the outside jumper...Still holds Terps record for most points in a game with 44 vs. N.C. State in ’78…Led Terps in assists junior and senior seasons.

[AFM]

Shabazz had 27 and 7 last game. He's shooting 48% from 3 and 49.6% from the field. Also averaging 5 boards a game.

[DMVleGeND]

Does anyone thinks Alex Polytheists has all-star potential

Never knew he invented his own religion.

[pancakes3]

Shabazz had 27 and 7 last game. He's shooting 48% from 3 and 49.6% from the field. Also averaging 5 boards a game.

Good and bad. He also went assistless the last 2 games (Long Beach State and Fresno St. respectively). Either way the armchair scouting won't amount to much until you see what these kids do against stiffer competition.

He plays Mizzou next which will be a good test. Noel plays Louisville on Sat. Len won't get tested until VT in the new year. Zeller won't be tested until conference play either.

[Nivek]

CCJ: Much of what you post about Love and Beasley sounds plausible. YODA accounts for quality of teammates and strength of schedule, though. Don't have the numbers in front of me, but the system I put together adjusts for exactly the factor you mention.

[DANNYLANDOVER]

alex len out played noel when they played and hes been out playing him since. noel might be a great defender, but he is average on the offensive end. len is a very nice defender and great on the offensive end. to be truthful another year in college could turn them both in to stars. I'm not saying your wrong about noel, i just like len a little bit more.

Noel was playing his very first game in college...compare their freshman seasons and tell me who's the better player. I'd pick Noel over Len and Zeller right now, but we'll see come tournament time.