2015 Draft Thread - Part 1

[FAH1223]

right now of the guys projected for us/around our pick I'm probably interested in (I expect Kaminsky to go in the lottery):

PG:
Delon Wright
T. Jones

Big Man:
Harrell
Portis
Poeltl
Turner
Wood

Among the guys projected around that 13-25 area, who are your favorites?

I'd be fine with Portis. He has been developing his three point shot and his defense has been pretty good. Moves his feet and keeps guys in front of him. Has an NBA body. Just needs to develop a couple of post moves and keep developing his shot.

[Sluggerface]

right now of the guys projected for us/around our pick I'm probably interested in (I expect Kaminsky to go in the lottery):

PG:
Delon Wright
T. Jones

Big Man:
Harrell
Portis
Poeltl
Turner
Wood

Among the guys projected around that 13-25 area, who are your favorites?

I really like Wood, I like Portis too, but I think Wood has more upside. He has loads of talent to go along with a long frame and just needs to bulk up.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Dekkers compares pretty well to Paul George's Fresno State stuff. Not as great of numbers, but a tick below, and great advanced stats. I like his handle a lot more than Porter, and I like him defensively as well. Definitely my guy at that pick.

Haven't really changed my opinion on Kaminsky. With everything running through him in the college game he looks great. But he gets a ton of favorable calls and the offense is being run through him. He's free to take as many possessions as he wants. I don't see him as a starter in the NBA. I think his ceiling is Hawes...and I think he'll reach that ceiling, but I'm looking for something better than that with our pick.

I think Dekker is like Gordon Hayward

Jack of all trades.. master of none and not as good as Hayward.

Hayward was probably the 3rd best SF this season with Melo, being out. You could argue time missed by Durant disqualifies him too. Hayward can get his own shot, and is relatively efficient. Good 2nd option on a contender if you ask me. Gordon is also pretty damn athletic. I don't see the same athleticism in Dekkar. I see a less athletic Jeff Green. Now if he becomes consistent with the 3pt shot it changes lots of dynamics for him.

Decker was certainly impressive against AZ. I was mainly focused on Kaminsky vs Tarczewzki, but Dekker stole the show at the end. As far as him as a prospect, the Jeff Green comp is probably a pretty good one. Kaminsky was impressive also. The comp on him that I keep going back to is Laettner. Cagey, does all the little tricks, diverse skills, can score inside, can shoot, rebound, pass, tenacious. But I'll be very surprised if he's still on the board for us.

Tarczewski is actually a big man I like as a late 2nd round pick. Reminds me of a bit of a young Gortat, and could be a good Seraphin replacement to play behind Gortat and learn from him.

I could go for Portis is where we're picking. When I watch him I think of Blatche, physically, but he's like all the best of what Blatche could be maxing his potential. He plays hard, and just run through the numbers... age 20, 6-10 235, 7-1.5 wingspan, 8-11 standing, 17.5 pts 8.8 boards, 1.1 assts 1.0 steals 1.4 blks, 46.4% 3 pointers.

The player I keep going to though is Justin Anderson. I just love everything about his game. He is a physical specimen, plays with heart, is a leader, defends, can shoot the 3 (46.9%). If we could somehow walk away with Portis and Anderson... that would be a steal of a draft!

At this point trying to prioritize our needs, matched with some players that may be available to us...

1. Nene replacement (Kaminsky, Portis, Lyles)
2. Long term starting SF (Dekker, Anderson)
3. Beal backup (Booker)
4. Gortat backup/Seraphin replacement (Tarczewski, Hammons)

[thricethefun]

It'd be interesting if we drafted Booker and he turned out to be better than Beal as a rookie.

[Dark Faze]

I really don't see how Kaminsky can guard NBA 4's at this level, he'll have to play C

[Ruzious]

I really don't see how Kaminsky can guard NBA 4's at this level, he'll have to play C

I don't agree. Watching him defend, he moves pretty well along the perimeter. At least in his early years, I'd rather him defending 4's than 5's.

Re Booker, Beal's a better athlete, but Booker has a pretty shot. Beal has more talent, imo.

I like Anderson, but he ended the season poorly - probably because of the injury - and I expect he'll come back to school for 1 more year - not just to make Sev happy. The one thing he lacks is some wiggle in his offense. He's just a straight line guy without any dribble moves to get by his man. That was a problem with ex Wiz Al Thornton - who never quite made it.

[payitforward]

Looks like we'll pick #18. At that spot, you should be satisfied if you pick a guy who turns into a solid pro. Sometimes teams do better, and...

In the last 10 drafts, here are 7 of the guys taken @#18: Tyler Ennis, Shane Larkin, Terrence Jones, Eric Bledsoe, Ty Lawson, Marco Belinelli, Gerald Green. Each taken by a different team of course. Don't know about the most recent guys yet, of course -- but it looks like a pretty good list overall, don't you think?

Here are the other 3 guys taken @#18 in those drafts: Oleksiy Pecherov, JaVale McGee, Chris Singleton.

You do the math....

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I have Washington going Guard in all of my Mocks, and I think it is what makes more sense, either Dunn or Grant.

They will do well to pick Dunn, and Grant will be successful. Dunn is a stud.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Interesting study I found while reading the NCAA Tournament wikipedia page.

http://journalistsresource.org/studies/ ... ion-making

The study’s findings include:

Tournament performance matters. A player who outperforms his regular season averages or who is on a team that wins more games than its seed would indicate will be drafted higher than he otherwise would have been. “Draft decisions are affected by unexpected team wins and unexpected player scoring.”

Professional teams don’t take college tournament performance into consideration as much as they should, as success in the tournament correlates with elite professional accomplishment — particularly top-level success, where a player makes the NBA All-Star Team three or more times. “If anything, NBA teams undervalue the signal provided by unexpected performance in the NCAA March Madness tournament as a predictor of future NBA success.”

Teams appear to draft players for offense, not defense: “Draft order is not a significant predictor of defensive performance.”
While NBA executives may be as riveted by March Madness as the average basketball fan, they appear to be overly cautious when weighing its implications. “How collegians perform under the glare of intense media attention and large arena crowds in a lose-and-go-home championship tournament provides important information about the true potential of these players as professional NBA players,” the study states. “Players with positive draft bumps due to unexpectedly good performance in the March Madness tournament are in fact more likely to become one of the rare NBA superstars in the league.”

EDIT: Fixed link

Good read, manifested.

I knew Kenneth Faried would be a huge success, particularly after he blocked a shot to seal Morehead State's win over Louisville in the NCAA Tournament. It was ludicrous the way drafting teams passed over a sure thing that he was to me.

Draymond Green was very successful in multiple NCAA Tournament games. His pro success in light of that is less surprising to me. Big time players make big time plays.

The other point: I've long known defense is undervalued. Teams draft offense and overpay offensive performers as well.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Looks like we'll pick #18. At that spot, you should be satisfied if you pick a guy who turns into a solid pro. Sometimes teams do better, and...

In the last 10 drafts, here are 7 of the guys taken @#18: Tyler Ennis, Shane Larkin, Terrence Jones, Eric Bledsoe, Ty Lawson, Marco Belinelli, Gerald Green. Each taken by a different team of course. Don't know about the most recent guys yet, of course -- but it looks like a pretty good list overall, don't you think?

Here are the other 3 guys taken @#18 in those drafts: Oleksiy Pecherov, JaVale McGee, Chris Singleton.

You do the math....

Wow PIF. Not that there needed to be additional evidence against EG's draft record, but this is incredibly damning. Three data points that add up to a firm conclusion.

Has anyone sent this particular factoid to Ted?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

It'd be interesting if we drafted Booker and he turned out to be better than Beal as a rookie.

He is IMO.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think Dekker is like Gordon Hayward

Jack of all trades.. master of none and not as good as Hayward.

Hayward was probably the 3rd best SF this season with Melo, being out. You could argue time missed by Durant disqualifies him too. Hayward can get his own shot, and is relatively efficient. Good 2nd option on a contender if you ask me. Gordon is also pretty damn athletic. I don't see the same athleticism in Dekkar. I see a less athletic Jeff Green. Now if he becomes consistent with the 3pt shot it changes lots of dynamics for him.

Decker was certainly impressive against AZ. I was mainly focused on Kaminsky vs Tarczewzki, but Dekker stole the show at the end. As far as him as a prospect, the Jeff Green comp is probably a pretty good one. Kaminsky was impressive also. The comp on him that I keep going back to is Laettner. Cagey, does all the little tricks, diverse skills, can score inside, can shoot, rebound, pass, tenacious. But I'll be very surprised if he's still on the board for us.

Tarczewski is actually a big man I like as a late 2nd round pick. Reminds me of a bit of a young Gortat, and could be a good Seraphin replacement to play behind Gortat and learn from him.

I could go for Portis is where we're picking. When I watch him I think of Blatche, physically, but he's like all the best of what Blatche could be maxing his potential. He plays hard, and just run through the numbers... age 20, 6-10 235, 7-1.5 wingspan, 8-11 standing, 17.5 pts 8.8 boards, 1.1 assts 1.0 steals 1.4 blks, 46.4% 3 pointers.

The player I keep going to though is Justin Anderson. I just love everything about his game. He is a physical specimen, plays with heart, is a leader, defends, can shoot the 3 (46.9%). If we could somehow walk away with Portis and Anderson... that would be a steal of a draft!

At this point trying to prioritize our needs, matched with some players that may be available to us...

1. Nene replacement (Kaminsky, Portis, Lyles)
2. Long term starting SF (Dekker, Anderson)
3. Beal backup (Booker)
4. Gortat backup/Seraphin replacement (Tarczewski, Hammons)

Nene is a good defender in general. Guys above are not, IMO.

Justin Anderson is a great defensive player. Will he be a SF in the NBA?

Dekker seems to be more PF than SF.

Portis is skilled but not very explosive. I am not sure how long it will take him to be effective.

My gut feeling is that the Wizards need more fast twitch/great finisher types. Montrezl Harrell, Dez Wells, of course healthy Justin Anderson immediately come to mind.

Devin Booker looks like an Alan Houston type pure shooter. Great shooters are always welcome. But how's his defense?

Kris Dunn is way better than Sessions or Bynum.

I haven't evaluated the draft objectively yet. Those guys just stand out. No need to run numbers, look at game logs, and to TRY to endure Draft Express video on them.

[jivelikenice]

I love RJ Hunter's quick release. We need shooting. Him & Grant are my two early draft favorites....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKGKa0qz1h8

[Dat2U]

Lets face it guys, if Ernie is going to be making the pick, were better off trading the pick for a veteran otherwise you can count on Ernie drafting a guy were either cutting after 3 years or a guy we have no intention of keeping long term.

[jivelikenice]

Draft is only relevant if Ernie and Randy are gone, as Dat alluded too. Even if Ernie is gone, Randy won't trust a rookie in a contract yr. Both have to leave in a package deal.

[Ruzious]

Lets face it guys, if Ernie is going to be making the pick, were better off trading the pick for a veteran otherwise you can count on Ernie drafting a guy were either cutting after 3 years or a guy we have no intention of keeping long term.

So trade the pick for Mike Miller and Randy Foye?

Technically, Grunfeld picked Jordan Clarkson in the second round last draft.

[fishercob]

Lets face it guys, if Ernie is going to be making the pick, were better off trading the pick for a veteran otherwise you can count on Ernie drafting a guy were either cutting after 3 years or a guy we have no intention of keeping long term.

So trade the pick for Mike Miller and Randy Foye?

Technically, Grunfeld picked Jordan Clarkson in the second round last draft.

The 18th pick for those two shlubs wouldn't be soooooo bad. Steph Curry? Not so much.

Let's all join together in prayer and meditation that Ernie isn't the one making this pick.

[Ruzious]

Lets face it guys, if Ernie is going to be making the pick, were better off trading the pick for a veteran otherwise you can count on Ernie drafting a guy were either cutting after 3 years or a guy we have no intention of keeping long term.

So trade the pick for Mike Miller and Randy Foye?

Technically, Grunfeld picked Jordan Clarkson in the second round last draft.

The 18th pick for those two shlubs wouldn't be soooooo bad. Steph Curry? Not so much.

Let's all join together in prayer and meditation that Ernie isn't the one making this pick.

You mentioned the 18th pick, and my mind went to Ty Lawson - remembering he was the 18th pick in the Curry draft. And then it went to remembering rumors that Denver was looking to trade Lawson at the trade deadline to get younger - even though he's not that old. Now it's wondering if Lawson could mesh with Wall. They'd sure be fast as bleep. Eh, the Wiz want more of a knock-down 3 point shooter next to Wall. Pass.

[ibraheim718]

Lets face it guys, if Ernie is going to be making the pick, were better off trading the pick for a veteran otherwise you can count on Ernie drafting a guy were either cutting after 3 years or a guy we have no intention of keeping long term.

Hey partner... it's time.

0
Post#292 » by Dat2U » Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:27 pm

ibraheim718 wrote:
Dat2U wrote:
I pretty much guarantee less than 20 wins for the Lakers this year, who wants to do a sig bet?


I'll take that bet. 19 wins or less and you win and 20 wins or more and I win.


Deal, I'll update my sig with the bet I'll have a nice Wizards sig for you come next May.

[hands11]

Speaking of sig beats. I never cashed in on someone here. Who was that again. I think it was a mod.