Wizards sign Paul Pierce, 2 years @ MLE

[nate33]

Luol Deng Agrees To Sign With Heat On Two-Year, $20M Deal

Interesting.

So now that we know his deal, the PP deal and the TA deal.

Which would people prefer ?

The best thing of all would have been for Ariza to agree to the same deal that Deng signed, but to do so with us. I'd much rather have Ariza for the next 2 years at $10M per, than Pierce for the next 2 years at $5M per. I appreciate all the love and respect everyone has for Pierce, but the man is 36 years old and had an insane amount of mileage on him. I expect a pretty noticeable decline over the next 2 years and anyone that doesn't think this is simply deluding themselves.

Don't get me wrong. I'm really happy with Pierce for 2 years instead of Ariza for 4, I'm just saying Ariza for 2 years would be the best of all possible worlds. Ariza is a perfect fit on this roster. Heck, a really awesome scenario would have been to retain Ariza AND sign Pierce as a stretch four.

Well, this is what I don't like about these kinds of discussions. The fact that Ariza more than likely would get offers for 4 year deals means that getting Ariza for two years, ten million is simply a non-starter. It's not part of a subgame perfect Bayesian equilibrium so why even bring it up?

That's game theory for "it's not a credible threat so no rational player will even consider that outcome."

I brought it up because Deng - a roughly equivalent player to Ariza in age and production - signed a 2-year $20M contract with Miami. I'm curious what Miami said to convince Deng to sign that deal, and whether or not we made the same argument with Ariza. Heck, I would have paid, 2 years $22M for Ariza. To convince him to sign the shorter deal, one would have to convince him that there is a TON of money available in 2016, and there is likely to be a dramatic jump in the cap. Ariza could make a ton of money in the short term, and them set himself up for a big contract in 2016.

[closg00]

The best thing about having Pierce on the team is that we now have a go-to guy for those last-second shots (besides Beal). This will take the pressure off of John who is not a clutch shooter..yet.


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[cwb3]

Hope Pierce has something left in the tank. Only saw him play a couple times with the Nets, and that was early in the season. Did not look like the Paul Pierce I remembered.

[Zonkerbl]

Maybe I'm an old timer but I would rather dump the ball in to Wall and let him distort the defense with his speed and pass it off to Beal on one side or Truth on the other, or fake it and drive into the hoop for a dunk, rather than dumping it into Truth and letting the defense stack itself against him.

Wall may not be a lights out clutch shooter but he is still your clutch player.

[Dark Faze]

Walls goofed too many times for me to trust him in those spots.

I'd rather Beal just iso'd or used a high screen for a last second shot.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Luol Deng Agrees To Sign With Heat On Two-Year, $20M Deal

Interesting.

So now that we know his deal, the PP deal and the TA deal.

Which would people prefer ?

The best thing of all would have been for Ariza to agree to the same deal that Deng signed, but to do so with us. I'd much rather have Ariza for the next 2 years at $10M per, than Pierce for the next 2 years at $5M per. I appreciate all the love and respect everyone has for Pierce, but the man is 36 years old and had an insane amount of mileage on him. I expect a pretty noticeable decline over the next 2 years and anyone that doesn't think this is simply deluding themselves.

Don't get me wrong. I'm really happy with Pierce for 2 years instead of Ariza for 4, I'm just saying Ariza for 2 years would be the best of all possible worlds. Ariza is a perfect fit on this roster. Heck, a really awesome scenario would have been to retain Ariza AND sign Pierce as a stretch four.

Agreed.

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[tontoz]

To me the most positive thing about this deal is that it is evidence that EG is thinking of clearing cap space for 2016. I don't hold out a lot of hope for PP being that good at 37. Maybe he can teach our young guys some of his moves.

[keynote]

Luol Deng Agrees To Sign With Heat On Two-Year, $20M Deal

Interesting.

So now that we know his deal, the PP deal and the TA deal.

Which would people prefer ?

The best thing of all would have been for Ariza to agree to the same deal that Deng signed, but to do so with us. I'd much rather have Ariza for the next 2 years at $10M per, than Pierce for the next 2 years at $5M per. I appreciate all the love and respect everyone has for Pierce, but the man is 36 years old and had an insane amount of mileage on him. I expect a pretty noticeable decline over the next 2 years and anyone that doesn't think this is simply deluding themselves.

Don't get me wrong. I'm really happy with Pierce for 2 years instead of Ariza for 4, I'm just saying Ariza for 2 years would be the best of all possible worlds. Ariza is a perfect fit on this roster. Heck, a really awesome scenario would have been to retain Ariza AND sign Pierce as a stretch four.

True. But, I want to see what EG does with this TPE before I make any assessment. Ariza is a better fit, but is Ariza better than Pierce and some other player we couldn't have traded for but for the TPE?

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[Hidden Eye]

Pierce would be good at the 2nd starting unit at this point of his career he is good as a mentor and play limited minutes. Porter is shaping up really good and knows what role he will have. Pierce will be a huge liability on Defense.

Miller
Rice
Pierce
Gooden?/Blair??/Harrington??
Seraphin

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The chemistry between Ariza and his "little brothers", Wall and Beal, was extraordinary. He will surely be missed. The guy played darned good defense and he was extremely efficient on offense. I viewed Ariza's return, not Gortat's return, as priority in this offseason. I wanted both back.

Let's see how Pierce fits in. He's potentially an excellent mentor for Otto Porter. He brings other things besides what Trevor Ariza does well. Pierce wanted to play with Wall and Beal, and he's gotten his wish.

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[cdouglas]

I liked Ariza and don't mean to take anything from his game but I think his game definitely improved since he's been playing alongside Wall. He wasn't as good when he was traded to DC and his career was dwindling. As a matter of fact between him and Webster I thought Webster was the best of the two. I remember an article where they were battling for the starting position and Webster was willing to come off the bench so that Ariza could have the starting role. Not sure what Ariza is going to get in Houston and I hope it works out for him but there's no John Wall in Houston. A very unselfish PG and I believe some veterans are taking notice. Last year it was Harrington who wanted to play alongside Wall and this year we have an All Star veteran Pierce who has been watching Wall's game.

Can't help but notice how Gortat's game has come to life. I think it's going to be interesting to watch how Pierce plays alongside Wall and Beal. I think we'll see the Pierce from the Celtics not Nets in DC. Should be interesting season.

[closg00]

Luol Deng Agrees To Sign With Heat On Two-Year, $20M Deal

Interesting.

So now that we know his deal, the PP deal and the TA deal.

Which would people prefer ?

The best thing of all would have been for Ariza to agree to the same deal that Deng signed, but to do so with us. I'd much rather have Ariza for the next 2 years at $10M per, than Pierce for the next 2 years at $5M per. I appreciate all the love and respect everyone has for Pierce, but the man is 36 years old and had an insane amount of mileage on him. I expect a pretty noticeable decline over the next 2 years and anyone that doesn't think this is simply deluding themselves.

Don't get me wrong. I'm really happy with Pierce for 2 years instead of Ariza for 4, I'm just saying Ariza for 2 years would be the best of all possible worlds. Ariza is a perfect fit on this roster. Heck, a really awesome scenario would have been to retain Ariza AND sign Pierce as a stretch four.

Agreed.

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+1 Nice post hands


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[Severn Hoos]

The chemistry between Ariza and his "little brothers", Wall and Beal, was extraordinary. He will surely be missed. The guy played darned good defense and he was extremely efficient on offense I viewed Ariza's return as priority one, not Gortat's return.

Let's see how Pierce fits in. He's potentially an excellent mentor for Otto Porter. He brings other things besides what Trevor Ariza does well. Pierce wanted to play with Wall and Beal, and he's gotten his wish.

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CCJ, you've seen how much I value Ariza, so I'm not dismissing him nearly as fast as some others have. That said, I do think Gortat should have been priority #1. Not only is C a much harder position to fill than SF, we had a C who has started to build a great chemistry with Wall and Beal, especially on the PnR.

Then, when you take 2016 into consideration, it's even more critical to keep Gortat. KD's not joining a team where he'd be the closest thing to a "Big" on the roster. If we'd lost Gortat while keeping Ariza, and with Nene expiring in 2016, KD would be looking at a team of Wall, Beal, Rice, Porter, Webster, and Ariza. He'd have to play Center on that team! I know one or more of those guys could be moved before the summer of '16, but it's unlikely they'd have a real solid Big Man in place to take the load off of KD.

There is a definite risk of Gortat declining, but given the obvious care he takes of himself physically, and his relatively low mileage for his age, it's a good bet he'll be productive for the next two years (in preparation to attract KD), and for at least a year or two after. If you don't have a Big of that caliber, KD will hang up on you when you call to offer a Max deal.

And, of course, Ariza plays the same position as KD. Not that they couldn't coexist, but if you are adding KD, you don't need Ariza - or more accurately, you can't afford him as a luxury.

I wish it were otherwise, but that's the hard reality of the NBA cap. Still, it gives us hope that we can get the local hero, so here's to '16!

[cdouglas]

It all remains to be seen, we want know the outcome until the season starts. Which of the three do you think other teams will find as a threat?

Wall, Beal and Pierce
or
Wall Beal and Ariza

[doclinkin]

Pierce's overall defensive impact is underrated. His b-ball IQ is off-the-charts. We become a smarter team with Pierce and while Pierce doesn't have the foot speed to chase around quicker opponents, he uses his wisdom and guile to play excellent positional defense, is sharp as ever on rotations (still excellent when closing out on shooters) and won't back down to anyone, even as an undersized stretch 4.

I would just avoid using him too much at SF. He can play there in spots for sure, but really he's a 4/3 at this stage of his career.

Which is my point. Pierce is savvy and canny, yes. But there are match-ups you can't expect him to cover, where Ariza's athleticism and ranginess meant you could use him to paper over holes in 4 spots on the floor. He was effective in guarding Joakim as well as Augustin. Pierce isn't bad, but he's not a shut-down guy. I like the upgrade on offense, and that may make all the difference in our record, but we just are not the defensive threat we were.

Defensively in the perimeter attack era you need one guy who can stop the ball at _any_ perimeter position, and one big who can show and recover on the pick & roll, and defend the paint on the interior. We lost the former. So we'll make do with what we've got.

[nate33]

It all remains to be seen, we want know the outcome until the season starts. Which of the three do you think other teams will find as a threat?

Wall, Beal and Pierce
or
Wall Beal and Ariza

That's a loaded question. Using the term "find as a threat" suggests you are asking which team would be the greater offensive threat. I think more teams would fear the Pierce version when phrased that way. But if you phrased it, "Which team to you think is better?", I think the answer is pretty clearly the Ariza team.

[FAH1223]

With Pierce on board, I'm thinking our team is looking similar to the 2012 Boston Celtics team a little. They went to the Eastern Conference Finals and had a 3-2 lead vs. the Heat until LeBron had his ridiculous Game 6 to save the Heat and push it to 7.

That had an older Allen/KG/Pierce with Rondo blossoming. In our case, we have a young backcourt, old Pierce, and a front court of two bigs in their early 30s.

Wall = Rondo
Beal = Allen
Pierce = Pierce
Nene/Gortat = KG/Bass/Steissma/Wilcox

And I'm doing a comparison of the 2012 team not the 2008 one

[doclinkin]

I liked Ariza and don't mean to take anything from his game but I think his game definitely improved since he's been playing alongside Wall. He wasn't as good when he was traded to DC and his career was dwindling. As a matter of fact between him and Webster I thought Webster was the best of the two. I remember an article where they were battling for the starting position and Webster was willing to come off the bench so that Ariza could have the starting role. Not sure what Ariza is going to get in Houston and I hope it works out for him but there's no John Wall in Houston. A very unselfish PG and I believe some veterans are taking notice. Last year it was Harrington who wanted to play alongside Wall and this year we have an All Star veteran Pierce who has been watching Wall's game.

Can't help but notice how Gortat's game has come to life. I think it's going to be interesting to watch how Pierce plays alongside Wall and Beal. I think we'll see the Pierce from the Celtics not Nets in DC. Should be interesting season.

Good point. And we missed you and the creepy dancing baby. Stick around.

[Zonkerbl]

I brought it up because Deng - a roughly equivalent player to Ariza in age and production - signed a 2-year $20M contract with Miami. I'm curious what Miami said to convince Deng to sign that deal, and whether or not we made the same argument with Ariza. Heck, I would have paid, 2 years $22M for Ariza. To convince him to sign the shorter deal, one would have to convince him that there is a TON of money available in 2016, and there is likely to be a dramatic jump in the cap. Ariza could make a ton of money in the short term, and them set himself up for a big contract in 2016.

Meh. I can't presume to get into the mind of NBA bball players but the economics of it is this: The franchise players know that they are worth more than what they are paid, pretty much regardless of the CBA. Those guys are better off with shorter contracts.

The run of the mill guys like Ariza, who are getting paid pretty much what they are worth, can't see the future - maybe they'll get injured, whatever. I imagine it would be pretty hard to convince Ariza to accept a $22 million contract vs. a $32 million one. Doable but difficult. Particularly with someone like Ariza who clearly just had the best season of his life - who knows if he'll be able to repeat that over the next two years to earn another contract.

I just don't see it.

It's nice to pretend that there are solutions out there that no one else can see, and Nate, maybe you're a better salesman than me and feel you'd have a good chance at making this case. I know I'd have a really difficult time explaining to somebody "No, you see, $22 million is actually more than $32 million, because, well, let me draw you this supply and demand graph... you're the stick figure here..."

[verbal8]

Meh. I can't presume to get into the mind of NBA bball players but the economics of it is this: The franchise players know that they are worth more than what they are paid, pretty much regardless of the CBA. Those guys are better off with shorter contracts.

The run of the mill guys like Ariza, who are getting paid pretty much what they are worth, can't see the future - maybe they'll get injured, whatever. I imagine it would be pretty hard to convince Ariza to accept a $22 million contract vs. a $32 million one. Doable but difficult. Particularly with someone like Ariza who clearly just had the best season of his life - who knows if he'll be able to repeat that over the next two years to earn another contract.

I just don't see it.

It's nice to pretend that there are solutions out there that no one else can see, and Nate, maybe you're a better salesman than me and feel you'd have a good chance at making this case. I know I'd have a really difficult time explaining to somebody "No, you see, $22 million is actually more than $32 million, because, well, let me draw you this supply and demand graph... you're the stick figure here..."

Ariza essentially did this once in his career. He opted into his final year with the Wizards, rather than hit the open market - picking $7.7 million for one year over more years, but a lower annual amount. I think offering him an extension(in the middle of last season) on that deal, may have been the best opportunity to keep him on a 2 year deal. He could have been offered as much as $17 million.

I think a short term deal with Washington was not particularly appealing to him because of Otto Porter. He would have been likely to be phased out as Porter improved, which would have hurt any follow-up contract.