The Official Kyle Kuzma Thread

[AFM]

The counter argument to that is that if we had a better player than Kuz we wouldn’t need a last second bucket.

Buckets in the first quarter count just as much you know

[tleikheen]

Id be more than stoked to see Kuz avg 17/18 ppg 8.5 rpg & 4 apg . Becoming the 3rd wheel to KP and Beal is the unknown,whats their ceiling?
KP is playing like Derozan with some Nowitzski putting in jumpers and fades around the key and in the paint and his shot looks sweet. Also he's shooting 3's from Curry and Lilliard range effortlessly .
Beal gets his stroke back and can be counted on 25 ppg or better than these 3 can be as good as any 3some in the NBA.

I think thats their ceiling.

[doclinkin]

Id be more than stoked to see Kuz avg 17/18 ppg 8.5 rpg & 4 apg . Becoming the 3rd wheel to KP and Beal is the unknown,whats their ceiling?
KP is playing like Derozan with some Nowitzski putting in jumpers and fades around the key and in the paint and his shot looks sweet. Also he's shooting 3's from Curry and Lilliard range effortlessly .
Beal gets his stroke back and can be counted on 25 ppg or better than these 3 can be as good as any 3some in the NBA.

I think thats their ceiling.

Last year playing as a primary bucketgetter Kuzma went for 17/8.5/3.5 on 14 shots a game.
I'd even be happy with 15/8r/3.5a on better shooting percentages and fewer shots, with the extra possessions going to Porzingis.
I still would fully expect Kuz to put up a 30-piece a few times a year when his streakiness catches fire, I'd just expect Monte Morris et al to do a better job of reading the court and feeding the hot hand so that Kuz doesn't have to gun for 30 every game even when he's off, but will get the ball when he has the mismatch.

[Wizardspride]

Kyle isn't a perfect player (obviously) but he definitely has talent.

Far from being "the worst player in the league".

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[trast66]

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[TGW]

Fools gold. Not a player to build around.

[nate33]

Fools gold. Not a player to build around.

He is certainly not a player to build around, but that doesn't make him worthless.

He is a rotation-caliber player. There's nothing wrong with that. He's only fools gold if someone is foolish enough to think of him as a star. He is definitely not a star.

[mhd]

Fools gold. Not a player to build around.

He is certainly not a player to build around, but that doesn't make him worthless.

He is a rotation-caliber player. There's nothing wrong with that. He's only fools gold if someone is foolish enough to think of him as a star. He is definitely not a star.

He needs to be traded. He can be a solid rotation player for a contender. He'd fit many teams. All I'd ask for is either a young player or a future 1st.

[payitforward]

Fools gold. Not a player to build around.

He is certainly not a player to build around, but that doesn't make him worthless.

He is a rotation-caliber player. There's nothing wrong with that. He's only fools gold if someone is foolish enough to think of him as a star. He is definitely not a star.

"Rotation-caliber" is a big category -- & for sure he fits in that category. But, all the same, he's not good value for what he is paid. &, for better or worse, he's the kind of guy who will keep getting paid too much.

Thus, from the point of view of this team, I think mhd is right:

He needs to be traded. ... All I'd ask for is either a young player or a future 1st.

& there you have the other side of the coin: he's not bringing a R1 pick.

[Kanyewest]

Kuzma now averaging 18.8 ppg/7.7 rpg/2.4 apg with a career high 57 TS%.

[BearlyBallin]

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[nate33]

Overall, this season, up to this point (& things may change), Kuz is having a pretty terrible season. Not nearly as good as last year, & even further from his best year so far, i.e. his last w/ the Lakers.

TBH, if you can't see that looking at games & track in the box score, then it's hard to understand why anyone would take seriously an assessment of the kind you make above.

Kuz's rebounds (on both ends) are down, his assists are down, his blocks are down, his steals are down, & his fouls are up. His TOs being down helps a little but not enough.

PIF made this point in the Rui thread (after the 12th game of the season), but it probably makes more sense to argue about it here.

In short, I disagree completely. Here are the numbers:



First of all, Kuzma is scoring more at higher efficiency. That is unquestionably a good thing. His TS% is up from .547 to an-above-league-average .572 while scoring almost 3 more points per 100 possessions. That's fantastic!

Kuzma's blocks and steals are slightly down, but 0.3 blocks per 100 possessions is a very small number and not that meaningful over the course of an entire game. The drop in steals is a bit more relevant since steals are more important than blocks, but they're more than offset by his improvement in turnovers. If you net out the steals and turnovers, he still has a +0.3 possession improvement there, which is probably enough to also justify his drop in assists. He is passing a little less but also turning it over a bit less because he isn't risking as many passes.

So basically, assists, steals, blocks and turnovers are a wash.

So really, the only disappointing thing is the loss of 1.1 rebounds per 100 possessions. That may seem bad, but is it really an indication that he is playing worse? I say no. I think the rebounding is down because he is playing alongside teammates that rebound better. Last year, he played alongside KCP and Kispert at forward (5.5 and 5.7 reb/100 possessions respectively). This year, he is playing most of his forward minutes alongside Avdija and Hachimura (10.4 and 10.7 reb/100 possessions respectively). There just aren't as many rebounds available. This is evident in the on/off numbers. Last year, when Kuzma was on the floor, the team pulled down 48.6% of the available rebounds. This year, they're pulling down 50.8%. Overall, the team rebounding is much improved, which must inevitably cut into Kuzma's rebounding totals. This is a good thing.

[DCZards]

Thank you for providing some context Nate. You can’t assess a player’s performance (and impact on winning or losing) from year to year without taking into account changes in that player's role, teammates, etc. It's a team game and looking solely at changes in a player's numbers can be very misleading.

[payitforward]

This is a perfectly sensible way to argue your point, nate -- maybe you're right; I'll take another look....

1. No question that Kuz's scoring is better this year than last -- not hugely better, but not insignificant either. He's using @1.5 more possessions to get 2.8 more points. Yet, the "above-league-average" TS% claim is slightly misleading -- average for an NBA PF is .586, so Kuz is still below average.

All the same, it's an improvement -- & since I'm claiming he's worse this season than last, the rest of the numbers have to more than bear me out!

2. This year, Kuzma's assists per 100 possessions are worse by 1.6, while his turnovers are better by .8 -- in my way of looking at things, those two numbers cancel each other out. So no help for my position there!

3. But, that's where the good news ends. So far this year:

a. Kuzma's fouls are up by 1.4.
b. His steals are down by .5.
c. His blocks are down by .3.
d. He's getting 1 fewer rebound.

In effect, the extra fouls & fewer blocks increase our opponents' scoring %'s, while the fewer steals & rebounds decrease our number of possessions & our scoring percentages.

So, now the 2.8 more points come at the cost of 1.5 more possessions plus the @2.5 lost possessions represented by a-d just above. I.e. the overall downgrade in Kuz's play from last year to this year is obvious.

Now, nate tries to counter this with the idea that Kuz is getting fewer rebounds b/c other players are getting more -- which prevents him from getting them.

But, obviously, that cuts both ways: Kuz taking more shots prevents others from using those offensive possessions. Since Kuz has only the 8th best TS% on the team, we'd obviously be better off if those extra possessions went to any of 7 other guys.

Obviously, that's irrelevant -- & in the same way so is the claim about other players getting the rebounds kuz would have gotten last year. You assess a player's production based on his numbers -- in Kuz's case as for any other player.

[payitforward]

Thank you for providing some context Nate. You can’t assess a player’s performance (and impact on winning or losing) from year to year without taking into account changes in that player's role, teammates, etc. It's a team game and looking solely at changes in a player's numbers can be very misleading.

You have a point, Zards -- of course you do. But, in the end we do assess players as individuals. & we have to. How else do you figure out who to draft? Who to keep? Who to trade? How much to pay a player? Or even how to use him best...!?

For example, I think Brad is having a tremendous year so far, Zards. Do you agree? Or, wouldn't you say that?

We assess Brad that way, we assess Gafford that way, we assess LeBron that way, & we assess a player at the end of the bench that way as well.

We're all watching Jordan Goodwin right now. He is performing extremely well. & the things he is doing make us say -- "hey, he's good -- or at least he has potential! Can you believe that dingbat PIF called him 'irrelevant?' Let's see whether he can keep it up -- I sure hope so."

Of course, conditions have to be right to allow Goodwin a chance to show what he's capable of -- but, in the end, that is exactly what he has to do! & he gets the credit for doing it!

As to Kuz, he is shooting a higher TS% this year than last: can we assess his performance to say "Kuz is shooting better this year"? (Thus, I notice that you didn't use your critique to question nate's positive assessment of the year Kuz is having -- only my negative one.)

As I say, you do have a point -- especially in the sense that issues of "role" & "teammates" can provide a corrective to help us understand why a player's numbers might look oddly different over a given stretch.

Still, it's easy to apply that "corrective" abstractly in a way that has no meaning. For example, if Johnny Davis plays later this week & goes, say, 5-8 from the floor (3 of them being 3-point makes), would it be "misleading" to say "Johnny Davis played well," because you'd be "looking solely at changes in a player's numbers"?

Rui went 8-12 the other night. Should we attribute that to a change in his role? To his teammates? Or, should we give him credit for what he does. Or, for that matter, how about the other direction, his 4 TOs?

Better yet --
Can you give me an example of an NBA player whose numbers changed substantially from year to year over his career -- based on "changes in that player's role, teammates, etc."?

I'm sure there are cases -- exceptions that prove the rule, as it were. & of course there are guys who look good for a while but then the league figures them out. Or the opposite: players who take time to figure it out & be effective in the league.

But, I don't think that's what you're talking about.

[DCZards]

Better yet --
Can you give me an example of an NBA player whose numbers changed substantially from year to year over his career -- based on "changes in that player's role, teammates, etc."?

I'm sure there are cases -- exceptions that prove the rule, as it were. & of course there are guys who look good for a while but then the league figures them out. Or the opposite: players who take time to figure it out & be effective in the league.

But, I don't think that's what you're talking about.

Nope…never said or meant to suggest substantial changes in a player's numbers based on role, teammates. What I’m talking about is the potential for incremental changes like those you point out – 1 less rebound, .5 less steals, etc. These are relatively small changes that I’m not sure are even noteworthy (or tell us anything) when you’re talking about just 12 games.

Of course, the same is true for those areas in which Kuz has shown improvement.

[payitforward]

Well that's different, & we are in agreement.
First off, players aren't machines, they're people. So, obviously, there's variation from game to game, from week to week, & from season to season.

Not to mention that they are playing with people & against people -- who also vary & affect them!

Still, players don't tend to vary wildly from year to year -- except in the sense that they may add skills early on &, of course, lose athleticism, etc. towards the end of their careers.

So Kuzma isn't a wildly different player this year from last. Nor last year from the year before. Not to mention that most of the season is still in front of us.

[Menace2Sobriety]

Forgive me if this has been discussed elsewhere, but given current trajectories for Rui and Kuz, what do folks think should/will happen in free agency with them? I’m assuming Kuz will opt out.

Do you keep them both? Trade one at deadline?

I enjoy watching Kuz much more than I thought.

[nate33]

Forgive me if this has been discussed elsewhere, but given current trajectories for Rui and Kuz, what do folks think should/will happen in free agency with them? I’m assuming Kuz will opt out.

Do you keep them both? Trade one at deadline?

I enjoy watching Kuz much more than I thought.

As it stands now, they only have about $12M in luxtax room to pay the two players after accounting for their draft pick. They could conceivably generate about $8M more room by drafting a PG and then moving one of Morris or Wright.

I don't think Ted will go over the luxtax unless this team is winning 48+ games a year, which is highly unlikely. So I think he'll only retain one. My guess is they'd prefer to retain Kuzma as long as the contract doesn't rise above $20M a year or so. The real question is whether they'll take the initiative to move Rui for value at the Trade Deadline rather than let that asset walk for nothing.

All of this is contingent on Beal not being moved by the Trade Deadline, of course.

It's crazy to think that a team this mediocre is having to make cuts of useful players due to luxtax implications.

[mhd]

Forgive me if this has been discussed elsewhere, but given current trajectories for Rui and Kuz, what do folks think should/will happen in free agency with them? I’m assuming Kuz will opt out.

Do you keep them both? Trade one at deadline?

I enjoy watching Kuz much more than I thought.

As it stands now, they only have about $12M in luxtax room to pay the two players after accounting for their draft pick. They could conceivably generate about $8M more room by drafting a PG and then moving one of Morris or Wright.

I don't think Ted will go over the luxtax unless this team is winning 48+ games a year, which is highly unlikely. So I think he'll only retain one. My guess is they'd prefer to retain Kuzma as long as the contract doesn't rise above $20M a year or so. The real question is whether they'll take the initiative to move Rui for value at the Trade Deadline rather than let that asset walk for nothing.

All of this is contingent on Beal not being moved by the Trade Deadline, of course.

It's crazy to think that a team this mediocre is having to make cuts of useful players due to luxtax implications.

Turd isn't going anywhere near the tax. Remember, he paid a 1st rounder to get off of Nicholson's awful contract (which ended up being Jarrett Allen). Sure, we got a rental in Bogs, but that deal was predominantly to save money. Turd isn't going to forgo his GSW money.