The What Should We Do With the 5th Pick II: IBJ Edition

[dobrojim]

Some random thoughts in response to the last page or 2 -

I wouldn't swap AJ for Boozer (otherwise Dat and I have areas
of considerable agreement). Boozer is not a big enough upgrade
in actual production to be worth upsetting chemistry.

SG is our position of greatest need but a number of the more pure
PGs in this PG strong draft, could play next to Gil. As long as they
can shoot. And Curry can shoot. Evans would be OK (with me) as well
due to his likely defensive prowess and his ability to slash and draw fouls,
which I expect us to return to being one of the better teams at doing.

Green would be a very nice pickup in the 2nd rnd, possibly a steal there.
But in order for the 2nd rounder to make the roster, a player is going to
have to be outright dumped somehow. Basic math.

What ever happened to Turner (OSU) ?

I think Lawson is better than Flynn. But that might be because I saw
Lawson play often and well. Because you gotta admit, at the end of the
year, no one was playing better than Lawson.

Someone is going to get a beast, and a lot of teams are going to wonder
why they didn't see it, when they pass on Blair.

[Wiz99]

Cast your vote!
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I voted for Harden even though I think in 3 years Evans will be the best pick for us out of the choices. All he is is missing is a consistent jumper.

I abstained 'cause there was no write in for Green.

But of the 7 the Post lists, I'd take Tyreke Evans because I think he could come in and have an impact as a defensive stopper quickly, which I believe is our biggest weakness today. Add some muscle to that 6'11 wingspan and he could be a utility defender that can give trouble to the East's high-scoring wings and guards (Piere, LeBron, Wade, Carter, Iguadala, etc)

[dnk]

Looking at Mike Prada's post on Gil's ideal backcourt partner on Bullets Forever, Danny Green might be FANTASTIC. Prada's three criteria are defense, shooting, and passing. Green is supposed to be a lockdown defender and is an incredible shooter. His APG and A/TO ratio leave a little to be desired, but he played the 3 on a team that had Lawson doing a lot of creating.

I agree with everyone that Green's lack of explosiveness or one-on-one ability is not a big deal given who he would be playing with. I'd love to pick Green with #32.

As for the #5, I'm still undecided.

[pancakes3]

#5+Stevenson for Rudy. Heytvelt with the 2nd rounder.

[dobrojim]

#5+Stevenson for Rudy. Heytvelt with the 2nd rounder.

I think POR needs to throw in the 24 or whatever it is.

But I love me some Rudy.

[P'Oed]

Green is a fantastic idea for this team. Look at all of the Finals teams that had guys that could do 2 things: play perimeter defense and shoot 3's. It's almost a requirement to have a specialist like that. Guys like James Posey, Bruce Bowen, Shane Battier and most recently Pietrus and Ariza are crucial to a deep into the playoffs kind of team. This guy's game could definitely be comparable.

[Brenice]

If you want Danny Green, who does he replace? Is he better than Nick? Would you play him over McGuire? For his role, I like the improving, scrappy Dominick. Green does not have a big up-side. Give me Tyreke Evans. Nobody at 5 will change the wizards from threat to contender.

[closg00]

The latest issue of ESPN mag has NBA players from each team making the pick for their team, for the Wiz it's AJ. AJ's pick.............DeMar Rozen because he reminds him of Vince Carter.

FWIW, Jordan Hill gets picked at 11 by Danny Granger.

[FreeBalling]

Cast your vote!
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The fans selected Curry, he seems to me like Dixson 2.0 a little small for the NBA.

[pancakes3]

#5+Stevenson for Rudy. Heytvelt with the 2nd rounder.

I think POR needs to throw in the 24 or whatever it is.

But I love me some Rudy.

Well considering how high portland is on Rudy and how crappy DS performed last season, i don't think this is too lopsided of a trade that we need to demand the 24th. We might not get full value for the #5 but we're not getting shafted either. Plus, if we can only keep 1 guy on the roster, getting the 24th means hoping we can draft Calathes/foreign and stash him, or sell the 2nd rounder. Both are iffy and marginal improvements to the team. I think without demanding the 24th pick is a more attractive package and push it in favor of us landing Rudy without giving up too much (dumping stevenson's contract is a positive in itself).

[LyricalRico]

#5+Stevenson for Rudy. Heytvelt with the 2nd rounder.

I think POR needs to throw in the 24 or whatever it is.

But I love me some Rudy.

Wow, you may be the first person to agree with me that POR should include their pick. Everybody else thinks it would be overpaying on their part. But I think it's more than fair considering that they would be moving up 19 spots in a draft where the talent drop off is huge.

[Ruzious]

If you want Danny Green, who does he replace? Is he better than Nick? Would you play him over McGuire? For his role, I like the improving, scrappy Dominick. Green does not have a big up-side. Give me Tyreke Evans. Nobody at 5 will change the wizards from threat to contender.

There are minutes to go around. I don't want McGuire playing 30 minutes a game next year - especially if we're expecting to win 50 plus games. There's 48 minutes at the 2 and 12 minutes at the 3 to spread among Young, Green, and Dom - 20 minutes each - which is pretty much ideal, imo. And that's assuming NO injuries - which we've seen is a bad assumption. The critical asset that Green has that Dom doesn't is a 3 point shot. And Young has not shined in that area, either. Considering the Wiz were the worst 3 point shooting team in the NBA last season... that's currently a team problem.

Btw, everybody hopping on my Green bandwagon - welcome aboard.

You're right that Evans has the higher upside, but that's comparing a top 10 pick to a likely 2nd rounder.

[DCZards]

But of the 7 the Post lists, I'd take Tyreke Evans because I think he could come in and have an impact as a defensive stopper quickly, which I believe is our biggest weakness today. Add some muscle to that 6'11 wingspan and he could be a utility defender that can give trouble to the East's high-scoring wings and guards (Piere, LeBron, Wade, Carter, Iguadala, etc)

Yup, D is a big reason I've been on the Evans bandwagon. He'll at least give us a shot at slowing down the guys you listed above (you can add Joe Johnson to that list). We tend to ignore defense when we're debating draft picks and then, once the season begins, we're all complaining about how bad the Zards defense is.

[LyricalRico]

We tend to ignore defense when we're debating draft picks and then, once the season begins, we're all complaining about how bad the Zards defense is.

I wouldn't say "ignore". I think most, including myself, would agree that defense is an important consideration. But I'm also of the mind that you don't spend the #5 pick on a defensive role player. So it's really not that I'm overlooking Evans defense. I'm just saying that you should be able to get a more well rounded player at #5. You can get defensive specialists all day long in the second round (McGuire, Mbah a Moute, Bowen, etc), so why use a lottery pick on one?

Now if you're also saying that Evans can do other things, that's fine. But to say we should take a guy at #5 because he can defend isn't very convincing (unless he's a 7-footer).

[Notorious_1]

I agree Evans is gonna be the better player...I just feel Harden is the better pick for help now. I think Evans is gonna be like Rondo in where he can't shoot now but give hime 2 years and you will see and increase in his fg% as well as being a defensive stopper. But as of right now I feel Harden has a more all around game.

[rockymac52]

Here are my random thoughts on the draft and the immediate future of this team:

In regards to the draft, the way I see it there are 3 things that can happen:
1. We don't trade the pick
2. We trade the pick and some players for an allstar
3. We trade the pick and some players for a lower pick and cap relief

My preferences are #2, #1, and #3 in order, but to be honest I'll probably be happy with all outcomes. I really can't see this team getting worse come draft day, or hell, I can't even see this team staying at the same level come draft day.

So for #3 (We trade the pick and some players for a lower pick and cap relief): We've all seen the proposed trades where we move down in a scenario like this. If we're moving down to say, the 8-11 range, we'll get rid of a bad contract and help out the luxury tax situation. I'm not going to get into specific proposed deals, but you know this means we'll be trading a guy like Stevenson, James, Thomas, or Songaila, and maybe throwing in a Pecherov or Crittenton, but yeah, no one significant. I'm okay with a trade like this because there will still be several quality players available at the 8-11 pick range. I'd love to see us make a trade like this and take Brandon Jennings, but I'm admittedly a sucker for potential and unknown talent, and don't really worry about attitude and work ethic problems. Somebody like Johnny Flynn doesn't attract me nearly as much, so if we made a trade to help cut some salary without giving up much and drafted a guy like Flynn, I wouldn't be excited, but I wouldn't be too disappointed either. I'd only be disappointed because I believe there's so much more we could have got in the draft or through a trade. Similarly, if we move down to the 15-20 pick range, we'd likely cut a little more salary, or perhaps pick up an average veteran role player in the process, but this is more of a treading water move, something I don't think we need right now.

For #1 (We don't trade the pick): First of all in my opinion, if Rubio falls, he should be drafted. I know there's reports that his agent doesn't want him in DC, but I'm not worried about that. If we draft him, he'll play for us. I'm not a huge Rubio lover, but the potential there is undeniable. I'm always concerned with drafting European players, due to the numerous busts because of hype, but I feel like Rubio will at least be capable. If Thabeet falls, we need to stay away. Not only do we not need a center (Haywood and McGee are both currently better, and McGee will continue to get better), but I don't think Thabeet will succeed in the NBA. Okay, so he's tall and long and can play defense. Great, but he's not going to be able to score in the NBA. He didn't score that much in college, and when he did, it was off an offensive rebound or an open layup. He can't create his own shot in the post, and he never will be able to. He towered over collegiate players, and he's still tall, but he'll face 7 footers on a nightly basis in the NBA. I can't see him ever scoring more than 8 ppg in the NBA. As for defense, yes he's long and can rebound and block shots well, but he's so thin and he's going to be pushed around in the NBA. Best case scenario in my opinion he ends up a capable center averaging something like 8/10. That's best case. And if he's on the Wizards, he's our #3 center, so he's not even going to see the court.

Today Michael Lee said the Wizards are considering 7 players for the #5 pick: Harden, Curry, Evans, Hill, DeRozen, Flynn, and Jennings.
Harden can do it all. He reminds me so much of Brandon Roy. He's going to do a lot of things well, nothing amazing. We don't need someone to do something amazing here. We've seen SGs flourish in our system next to Gilbert. Granted we're not playing the princeton anymore, but Flip's going to get his SG open jumpers. Look at what he did for Rip. If we're drafting a SG, we need someone who can come off screens and sink an open jumper. Having the ability to shoot off the dribble is far less important to us now that Flip's our coach. Remember that. Harden's a great spot up shooter, and he'd absolutely flourish in our new system. If DeShawn can get a bunch of wide open jumpers and hit them, Harden sure as hell can.
Now if Harden can hit an open jumper, Curry sure as hell can. As the days go by I become more and more enamored by Curry. I'm beginning to think he's going to succeed in the NBA. Especially on a team like ours. If we drafted Curry, we'd surely see him and Gilbert on the court at the same time fairly often. Just imagine Gilbert running the point, while Curry ran around and did his thing and came off screens for open jumpers. If anybody has a better jumper than Curry in this draft, please let me know. I don't know just how open guys will be coming off these screens, but if they have enough space, then Curry's just gold for us. I'm still quite wary of his size and what it means on defense and whatnot, but I think he could do real well here in DC.
Evans can be a special player in the NBA. Watching him live in the Sweet 16 against Mizzou, I felt like I was watching Dwyane Wade. He got to the basket so quickly, no matter how many defenders were in his way. He doesn't have a jump shot, but it doesn't even matter. I think he'll do well in the NBA, but that's not what we need on this team. He'd be the 4th option at best, and Evans needs the ball in his hands to be effective. He couldn't come off screens, and thus, I don't think he fits in here at all.
DeRozen is solid, but doesn't do anything special, and is so inconsistent. I'll be a little upset if we pick him. Yeah, there's potential, but I just don't think he has the work ethic to ever come close to reaching it. Pass.
I talked about Flynn earlier, and yeah, he can't shoot and he's a point. If we draft a point, it should be someone like Curry who plays more like a 2. Gilbert's our point, he's not moving to SG, he'd only play alongside another PG who is too good to stay off the court IMO. Flynn could do alright in the NBA, but he needs to be a court leader and in control of the game, and he won't be doing that in DC.
Jennings, I really like. He has star written all over him. He's happy to go out there and just pass all game and wrack up the assists, but at the same time he can score. I think he'll do better on a young team where he can start at the point and run the team, but we could make it work. I don't see us picking him at the 5, but if we trade down I'd be happy to see us draft him.
As for Hill, he'd be the one way I could end up disappointed at the conclusion of draft day. He's old, he turns the ball over, he doesn't score. He'd be a nice guy to come off the bench and get like 5 or 6 rebounds a game. That's not going to take us to the next level. We truly believe we have the right pieces to put together a championship caliber team, and I agree, and Hill brings nothing to the table for us. I don't even think he'd see the court on this team. There's just not enough minutes for all these big men.

and lastly, #2 (we trade the pick and some players for an allstar): This is my dream scenario, and it should be yours too. If we land a Bosh or Amare, we're set. If we lose Jamison and the pick for one of these, we're getting a good deal. Hell, I know everybody loves Caron, and I do too, but let's be real, Bosh and Amare are better than Caron. I think in a trade, value wise, we can work something out where we don't have to give up Caron, and yeah, I'd rather not, but if it comes down to it and we have to include Caron along with the pick and some filler to land Bosh or Amare, we need to take it. Arenas/Jamison/Bosh(or Amare) is killer. But most likely a trade for one of those would include Jamison rather than Caron, but who knows.

Now a trade for another type of allstar, say, a SG, might be more likely. Ginobli, Carter, Rip... those types of guys. Talent wise a step down from Bosh and Amare, and they're already slightly on the downside of their career (carter is for sure haha), but still great players. In a trade for oen of these, we likely don't have to give up any of our big 3. I see people turn down trades for Carter all the time because he's older and is on the decline, and "there's only one basketball", but let's be real. You're telling me you'd rather see Steph Curry on the court next season than Vince Carter? At the end of the day that's what you need to consider. We're playing to win NOW. Arenas/Carter/Butler/Jamison/Haywood is an insane lineup. Having too many stars is a good problem to have I'd say.

All in all, unless the front office really **** up, by the end of draft day we're going to have a better team, and I think we're in great shape for a serious playoff run next year.

[Ruzious]

The latest issue of ESPN mag has NBA players from each team making the pick for their team, for the Wiz it's AJ. AJ's pick.............DeMar Rozen because he reminds him of Vince Carter.

Derozan would be the one possibility I'd say... wt... tarnation are they going? He's a 3 right now, because he doesn't have enough guard skills. And he has lousy size for a 3 - and measured out worse than people expected. The one athletic negative people mentioned before the measurements was his ability to move his feet side to side - obviously a basic need in playing perimeter defense. And sure enough, his agility drill score was horrible - 5th worst of everyone tested. I see him as a very uni dimentional scorer in the NBA.

[WizarDynasty]

If its true that we absolutely must get a sg and we are considering those seven players, EG needs to be fired if he doesn't select Evans. Bad enough that we have the worst perimeter defense and no dominant post offensive players even to groom for the future and he is going to pass on Clark and Mullen, but if he doesn't take Evan over the other crap players at sg, I will lead the fire EG campaign myself LOL.

[jimij]

- You're telling me you'd rather see Steph Curry on the court next season than Vince Carter? At the end of the day that's what you need to consider. We're playing to win NOW. Arenas/Carter/Butler/Jamison/Haywood is an insane lineup. Having too many stars is a good problem to have I'd say.

Yes, I'd much rather have a draft pick (not necessarily Curry) rather than Vince Carter. We've got enough offense already with our big 3 so adding another guy who needs loads of touches doesn't really appeal to me (unless its a PF with a post game). I'd rather not sacrifice the next few years of having a cheap talented player for a vastly overpaid prima donna who I don't see as a good fit here.

[LyricalRico]

The latest issue of ESPN mag has NBA players from each team making the pick for their team, for the Wiz it's AJ. AJ's pick.............DeMar Rozen because he reminds him of Vince Carter.

Derozan would be the one possibility I'd say... wt... tarnation are they going? He's a 3 right now, because he doesn't have enough guard skills. And he has lousy size for a 3 - and measured out worse than people expected. The one athletic negative people mentioned before the measurements was his ability to move his feet side to side - obviously a basic need in playing perimeter defense. And sure enough, his agility drill score was horrible - 5th worst of everyone tested. I see him as a very uni dimentional scorer in the NBA.

I"m working on version 2.0 of my mock and I've got DeRozan sliding out of the lottery. They guy has almost zero strengths except that he can run and jump. If this were another draft class he'd be talked about as a second rounder.