2012 NBA Draft - Part V

[Ruzious]

The comp that bugs me for Beal is Foye. I think Beal will ultimately be a better shooter but I'm still worried his dribble drive game will closely resemble that of Foye's. Robinson to me is still the the #1 option for us. Beal's testing has put to bed my worries over his athleticism; but I'm still concerned about why he didn't shoot well from the field or from the ft line, and my previous concern over his dribble drive game. The mechanics on his shot look great, but is there something we're missing in terms of release point, or quickness of his release that pushed the numbers down?

The problem with his shooting percentage is - He was a freshman. Freshman guards typically don't shoot for good percentages, and they typically improve. He's still 18 years old. It really is that simple.

I don't know how it could be that simple if as a shooter he's being compared to Ray Allen. Ray Allen's shooting numbers blow Beal's away when you compare freshman seasons.

Allen- 51%- fg/ 40%-3pt/ 79%- FT
Beal- 44.5%-fg/ 34%-3pt/ 77%- FT

I can 100% buy that he'll improve at each level as he gets more accustomed to the level of play, but I also don't see why we should assume he'll be a Ray Allen type of shooter when there's nothing to support that.

Really? One example proves you should be worried?

[Severn Hoos]

Draymond Green continues to impress. He has a very quick lane agility score for a big man (11.01) and his vertical is in line with Thomas Robinson and Terrence Jones. And that's despite a terrible body fat score. If he loses a little fat, he could pan out to be a respectable NBA player.

Thomas Robinson has a real disappointing lane agility of 11.96

Robinson had the second fastest sprint...out of everyone! His lane agility is only a few second off what Millsap had.

That guy is going to be productive. Not a dominant big, but a Boozer/Millsap guy.

And Booker had the fastest sprint in his draft class. That would be the draft class that included John Wall, BTW.

DX is blocked at work, so I can't pull up all of the measurables, but from the sound of it, Robinson looks even more like a Booker clone. Somehow I think that comparison will continue.

[WizarDynasty]

after these measurements...it goes

Drummond plus Nene equals superstar...first pick.

if he is gone...it's easily Barnes and Wall== that is a match made in heaven for a decade.

If Barnes and Drummond gone...toss up between Beal and Royce White with edge going to
White.
Beal is nice but at 200 pounds and also short, and doesn't have a history of finishing strong at the rim in college...he also isn't that quick in sprint time 3.28 which shows he has a slower first step than Barnes. White has superstar potential...so i would trade the pick and grab him and whoever falls like dion waiters or perry jones.
Tier one AD
tier two is Barnes and Drummond. We are guaranteed to get one of these three.
If we are offered 6 and 11 plus a young former 1st or 2nd team under 25 all nba player..then maybe i consider.
what i would like is to grab at mid draft pick like 16 and get royce white. Leonsis and EG would look like genius and probably would double revenue in about 3 years.

[pcbothwel]

It should be noted that DX mentioned the standing reach was done in error. They are going to edit them with the adjustments (0.5 - 1" inch) and re-post.

[nate33]

If we are offered 6 and 11 plus a young former 1st or 2nd team under 25 all nba player..then maybe i consider.

An first or second team all NBA player would be a top 10 player in this league. So essentially, you are saying that in order to trade the #3 pick, you would need to be offered a top 10 player (who happens to be under 25) plus the #6 and the #11 pick.

[Upper Decker]

Ultimately, these measurements might be bad news for Washington. Originally, I was sure that Beal would be on the board at #3, but now I think Charlotte will be choosing between Robinson and Beal. I think the measurements will cause MKG to slip out of their consideration. MKG looks like he'll fall to 4th or 5th now.

Robinson probably held his own with the measurements, but he didn't really help himself all that much. His lane agility could be a red flag, but his sprint is exceptional.

Drummond impressed with his lane agility and no-step vertical so he could be in the mix as well.

This. Our hope is that Charlotte views Henderson as a potential building block and takes Robinson. I suspect MKG will fall to 6-7 range behind Davis, Robinson, Beal, Drummond, Barnes.

[Dat2U]

Ultimately, these measurements might be bad news for Washington. Originally, I was sure that Beal would be on the board at #3, but now I think Charlotte will be choosing between Robinson and Beal. I think the measurements will cause MKG to slip out of their consideration. MKG looks like he'll fall to 4th or 5th now.

Robinson probably held his own with the measurements, but he didn't really help himself all that much. His lane agility could be a red flag, but his sprint is exceptional.

Drummond impressed with his lane agility and no-step vertical so he could be in the mix as well.

I don't see how the measurements hurt Kidd-Gilchrist. I don't think the measurements hurt anyone in our range. Beal is a little on the small side but appears to have the athleticism to compensate. MKG has ideal SF length and compares athletically to Andre Iguodala. Robinson measured in okay. Drummond definitely helped helped himself by coming in great shape and having an elite physical profile.

MKG has been my #2 choice in the draft since February. I'm okay with Beal at #3 but not completely sold. However I do feel confident Beal will be at least a solid starting SG. I'm really intrigued by Drummond, but I do recognize offensively he's a project. The defensive upside is really apparent however.

I really really like Lillard and Waiters. I almost want to trade down for Waiters. He just might be worth taking on the Okafor & Ariza contracts.

If we somehow came out the draft with Beal AND Waiters, I'd be very happy. Waiters fits the prototype for that 3rd guard off the bench. James Harden, Manu Ginobili, Lou Williams & Jason Terry all excel in this role and I think Waiters has Harden like potential.

[nate33]

It should be noted that DX mentioned the standing reach was done in error. They are going to edit them with the adjustments (0.5 - 1" inch) and re-post.

Really?

Well in that case, Beal would rank alongside Nick Young, Brandon Roy and Tony Allen in standing reach. No height concerns there. And that doesn't even factor the likelihood that he might grow a bit more.

An extra inch would bump Robinson up to the Al Horford range in standing reach (plus Robinson has a considerably better wingspan).

[jivelikenice]

Really? One example proves you should be worried?

No, if you read carefully I said that I can totally buy that his percentages will trend positively as he gets accustomed to the level of competition. But I don't buy the argument that he's a Ray Allen type of shooter when Ray Allen himself came into college shooting lights out Day 1. People have been comparing him to one of the best 3 pt shooters of ALL TIME and I'm just saying they need to pump the brakes on that comparision. My point is as part of their due diligence, they shouldn't just dismiss his avegrage shooting last year and attribute it to being a freshman and should look into if there are other factors atributed to it. When the 3rd pick is at stake, Ernie & Co, have to dot all the i's and cross all the t's.

[nate33]

I don't see how the measurements hurt Kidd-Gilchrist. I don't think the measurements hurt anyone in our range.

My thinking is that MKG must make a living off of his athleticism and defense since his jumper is broken. But with his mediocre lane agility and jumping ability, it's going to cause teams in the top 4 to question whether to pick him.

One can argue that it's foolish to trust the measurements when his track record certainly proves that he can finish in the lane, but I think GM's always overweight measurements a bit too much. When a GM compares him to, say, Barnes, he's going to see that Barnes is taller, longer, more athletic and a better shooter with a pure stroke. It's going to be pretty tough to pick MKG over him.

[fishercob]

Food for thought:

Code: Select all

Name          HTnoSH   Wgt  Span    Reach  NSVt  MxVt  Aglty  Sprint
Bradley Beal  6'3.25"  202  6'8"    8'4"   33    39    10.95  3.28 
John Wall     6'2.75"  196  6'9.25" 8'5.5" 30    39    10.84  3.14 

Payton + Hersey Hawkins
Isiah + Dumars
Westbrook + Harden

I like it.

[nate33]

Really? One example proves you should be worried?

No, if you read carefully I said that I can totally buy that his percentages will trend positively as he gets accustomed to the level of competition. But I don't buy the argument that he's a Ray Allen type of shooter when Ray Allen himself came into college shooting lights out Day 1. People have been comparing him to one of the best 3 pt shooters of ALL TIME and I'm just saying they need to pump the brakes on that comparision. My point is as part of their due diligence, they shouldn't just dismiss his avegrage shooting last year and attribute it to being a freshman and should look into if there are other factors atributed to it. When the 3rd pick is at stake, Ernie & Co, have to dot all the i's and cross all the t's.

It's true that he was an average shooter as a freshman. But all reports suggest he was an amazing lights out shooter in high school and in summer leagues and international leagues. He also shot better in the second half of the season (when playing superior competition). I think many are viewing his poor shooting in the first half of his freshman season as an aberration. They see his pure stroke, his incredible range, and his flawlessly repeatable release and they choose to overlook two months of his career.

You make a fair point that it may be unwise to overlook his freshman season. Certainly, if he was a 40% shooter from 3 as a freshman, we would be having this conversation. He would be a consensus top 3 pick.

[fishercob]

Really? One example proves you should be worried?

No, if you read carefully I said that I can totally buy that his percentages will trend positively as he gets accustomed to the level of competition. But I don't buy the argument that he's a Ray Allen type of shooter when Ray Allen himself came into college shooting lights out Day 1. People have been comparing him to one of the best 3 pt shooters of ALL TIME and I'm just saying they need to pump the brakes on that comparision. My point is as part of their due diligence, they shouldn't just dismiss his avegrage shooting last year and attribute it to being a freshman and should look into if there are other factors atributed to it. When the 3rd pick is at stake, Ernie & Co, have to dot all the i's and cross all the t's.

I think those brakes have been duly pumped, jive. Ray Allen is the best shooter ever. I don't see people in this forum promising that Beal is going to shoot as well as Ray Ray. I do think there's reasonable hope that BEal will shoot at as well as guys like Manu, Gordon and Harden.

[mohammed10]

Man why do you guys waste time writing essays on 2nd round draft picks when its pretty clear we're stocked with backup caliber players as it is.

[jivelikenice]

Fishercob,

I could agree with that. I have reservations but am more comfortable with Beal after the measurements and athletic testing. The Foye comp bothers me in that Foye could drive but couldn't finish at the hoop and always settled for pull up jumpers or floaters and I'm hoping Beal could be a more complete 2 guard bu that's to be determined.

I still like Robinson; I think he's the safest prospect out of the group but still offers all-star potential.

1. Robinson
2. MKG- Measurements didn't help or hurt him IMO, whereas they helped others. Still love the intangibles
3. Beal- Closed the gap w/ MKG with a strong combine

[dobrojim]

Man why do you guys waste time writing essays on 2nd round draft picks when its pretty clear we're stocked with backup caliber players as it is.

well for many of us, the reason is simple

at 3 - we know we're most likely looking at a choice between
2-3 guys. So the discussion is pretty limited. Some like player A,
some like B, some like C.

But it's wide open as far as the 2nd round picks go beginning with
the fact that you have a much worse idea of who might be there
to take. We all like guys like Barton, Crowder, Green, Jenkins, Denmon etc.
but we just don't know who might take a flier on one of them before
our turn comes up again.

[nate33]

Sullinger's lane agility is an embarrassing 12.77. That's on par with Brendan Haywood, Aaron Gray, Patrick O'Bryant, DeSagana Diop and Mike Sweetney.

There are literally no examples of guys that slow and that short who have panned out in the NBA. Here is a list of guys with a greater than 12.25 agility score and a less than 9-2 standing reach:

Code: Select all

Name              Reach    Agility
Sherron Collins   7'10"    12.31 
Will Barton       8'6.5"   12.5   
Shan Foster       8'8.5"   12.3   
Randy Holcomb     8'9"     12.85 
Jared Sullinger   8'9.5"   12.77 
Gregory Smith     8'10.5"  12.43 
Ryan Gomes        8'10.5"  12.49 
Lawrence Roberts  8'10.5"  12.52 
Jordan Williams   8'10.5"  12.74 
Derrick Caracter  8'11.25" 12.78 
Mike Sweetney     8'11.5"  12.9   
Henry Sims        9'0"     12.33 
Festus Ezeli      9'0"     12.35 
Herbert Hill      9'0.5"   12.31 
Hilton Armstrong  9'1"     12.28 
Aaron Gray        9'1"     12.63 
Jermareo Davidson 9'1.5"   12.63 

And Sullinger is among the shortest and slowest on this list.

[TGW]

MKG's numbers are somewhat proving what I suspected of him before...an overrated athlete with a high motor and a horrible looking jumpshot. I thought the comparisons to Gerald Wallace were somewhat inaccurate. Wallace is a supreme run/jump athlete who at his prime was a highlight machine. MKG (granted he was a freshman) doesn't have the amount of highlight dunks and oops one would expect from a top flight athlete in college.

That butt ugly jumpshot is probably the worst I've seen since Bill Cartwright.

[TGW]

Sullinger's lane agility is an embarrassing 12.77. That's on par with Brendan Haywood, Aaron Gray, Patrick O'Bryant, DeSagana Diop and Mike Sweetney.

There are literally no examples of guys that slow and that short who have panned out in the NBA. Here is a list of guys with a greater than 12.25 agility score and a less than 9-2 standing reach:

Code: Select all

Name              Reach    Agility
Sherron Collins   7'10"    12.31 
Will Barton       8'6.5"   12.5   
Shan Foster       8'8.5"   12.3   
Randy Holcomb     8'9"     12.85 
Jared Sullinger   8'9.5"   12.77 
Gregory Smith     8'10.5"  12.43 
Ryan Gomes        8'10.5"  12.49 
Lawrence Roberts  8'10.5"  12.52 
Jordan Williams   8'10.5"  12.74 
Derrick Caracter  8'11.25" 12.78 
Mike Sweetney     8'11.5"  12.9   
Henry Sims        9'0"     12.33 
Festus Ezeli      9'0"     12.35 
Herbert Hill      9'0.5"   12.31 
Hilton Armstrong  9'1"     12.28 
Aaron Gray        9'1"     12.63 
Jermareo Davidson 9'1.5"   12.63 

And Sullinger is among the shortest and slowest on this list.

Not only that, but he literally has one leg that's longer than the other, which will probably lead to a career of back and knee problems. He wears corrective shoes to balance himself.

I wouldn't touch the guy with a high pick.

[nate33]

Jae Crowder doesn't have a great standing reach and isn't a great leaper, but he has the third best lane agility among potential forwards in this draft (behind Acy and Plumlee, who can't shoot). I could see him panning out to be a quick-footed position defender who can stay in front of his man and get a hand in his face, even if he doesn't always challenge the shot.

His measurements might cause him to drop all the way to our #46 pick but I don't think I'd risk letting him slip past #33. It's too bad because I'd really like to pick up both Crowder and Draymond Green in the second round. And then pick up Denmon as a walk-on after he doesn't get drafted.