GT: Wizards host Bobcats - Nov 24th 7 pm

[penbeast0]

Beal and Barnes have the same type of issues . . . both are better suited for complementary roles than star roles. Beal is younger and had the good rebounding numbers in college; I still think he'll come around and probably have a better career than Barnes.

The problem is the same damn one the Wizards have had since their last ring back in the 70s. They are aiming at the playoffs instead of at a championship. They have made less young for old moves and more old for young ones among their core players than any team I can think of in the last 30+ years. It's true that many of the championship contenders get some older statesmen roleplayers to fill out the rotation which is smart but first you need a core -- we have one, possibly 2 players for our core; the young guys need to develop before you start bringing in the Nene's and Okafor's of this game although I like both players. It's the quick fix to get you to the #8 spot for short term ticket sales mentality. It's been the bane of this franchise under Abe Pollin and looks to be doing the same with Ted and EJ.

Do notice that, if you are okay with this mentality, while we lost the last two after Nene's return both were tight right up to the last shot. Nene may be making a difference.

[montestewart]

Its Depressing you guys bring down Beal and on the Barnes band wagon no one here beside 7 day dray wanted Barnes we was in love with Bradley Beal. I still love Beal and still believe he has more upside then Barnes. Beal is just a rookie he has shown he can be an all around player his shots will start to fall some point.

I figured he might have a period of adjustment as a very young player entering the league and landing on a team where he might be the primary jump shooting threat. Not really an ideal situation here for him, and he doesn't seem to have adjusted so well, although his 3P % is similar to college, from a greater distance, so he seems OK there as far as I can see (and that was in fact my biggest concern). He's a decent rebounder and passer, has the making of a decent and disciplined (if not gifted) defender. His ability to get his shot or otherwise find ways to score hasn't looked too good to me so far, but 11 games into the worst Wizards start ever, maybe his own unspectacular beginning is a symptom as well as a cause of that putrid path.

I'm not ready to call Adam Morrison or Wesley Johnson (other recent 3rd pick busts), and if he was added to a better team with other shooters, we might not even be focusing so much on his shortcomings. Barnes has looked a bit better than I expected. If he keeps it up, good for him. I definitely wanted Beal with the 3rd over Barnes or any other player, especially after the OkAr trade clogged the front court.

[AWIZZINGBULLET]

Its Depressing you guys bring down Beal and on the Barnes band wagon no one here beside 7 day dray wanted Barnes we was in love with Bradley Beal. I still love Beal and still believe he has more upside then Barnes. Beal is just a rookie he has shown he can be an all around player his shots will start to fall some point.

That's a lie. I'm not one of the well-known posters in here but I wanted Harrison Barnes, you can go and check that. Beal is good and I think he gets better with Wall but I was pulling for a Barnes and John Jenkins draft. One thing that's getting on me concerning Beal is that he's shying away from the moments when the Wizards need a score and that's one quality that I don't believe Barnes would be showing if he had this opportunity with the team's two best players coming back from injuries. I'm hoping Wall getting back will toughen Beal up because he's acting pretty soft right now. Your jump shot may not be falling but you can still play with intensity.

[AWIZZINGBULLET]

@Dat2U
Leading up to the draft I felt Barnes' defense and athleticism were being underrated. I mentioned to another guy how I thought Barnes at SF would open up the offense more, but I understood the upgrade Beal would give the Wizards over Crawford. Beal has the ability, I've seen it, but I don't get why he's being so passive. Take the ball to the rim for crying out loud.

[payitforward]

Beal... If that is the kind of game we wanted, we could have had MKG who is taller.

It's one thing to be optimistic, but you can't change the draft order!

[payitforward]

So... we are to watch a video of Harrison Barnes in full motion to the bucket, receiving a perfect pass in the situation, and going up for a dunk over Pekovic who arrives a little late to be anything but posterized.

And this means that he's the man. Barnes! Wow. Beal's a bust -- we shoulda took HB!

Don't you think you're being kind of silly?

[The Consiglieri]

I'm extremely disappointed in Beal. I've finally come to the conclusion that players really don't improve all that much once they get into the league, particularly guards. If they're not pretty good right away, it's unlikely that they'll ever become good. Right now, Beal's ORtg is 92 and he has shown no above average skill. That's embarassing. While I'm sure it'll get better, I'm losing faith that there will be a dramatic transformation. WYSIWYG. Beal is a mediocre player at best. We are no longer talking Ray Allen, Eric Gordon, or a shorter James Harden. I'm thinking his upside is more like Randy Foye, Bobby Phils or Hubert Davis. Basically, a below average starter or a bench player. Yay. Another bench player.

I agree, Beal doesn't pass the eyeball test and he has ZERO swag. However, you've got to hope that we will see some dramatic improvements at some point once he gets some experience.

I can't just lurk on this one.

Beal is 19 and has played 11 games. Compare game logs with James Harden's first 11 games, aged 20.

Rookie Beal: http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/2013/
Rookie Harden: http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... elog/2010/

During 30 games of his rookie season (December and January) Harden shot well under 40 percent. Check his splits: http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lits/2010/

(OKC might have been thinking WYSIWYG also, well into Harden's rookie season.)

As for your conclusion that Gs do not improve, do you remember this player?



Your rule works as a broad generalization, nate, but look at Malone's first-year PER and WS/48 compared to his 2nd through 5th seasons.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... nje01.html

For historical reference, Gary Payton, John Starks, Derek Harper are all notable exceptions to your observation. They improved after age 22. Beal is 19.

We are completely on the same page. To be honest, I think a lot of people simply need to stop watching, take a step back, and relax. The season is lost, but not Beal's entire career. There's a reason he was a top 3-5 recruit in the nation out of highschool, and regarded as a top 5 prospect out of the entire class for the '12 draft. 10 or 11 or even 40 games this season won't impact my view on his career period. If he's still struggling badly in late '14 I might be worried. Now? Not in the least. People are unfortunately paying attention to every single shot in every single game, and evaluating his career based on small, tiny moments. What Keith law and scouts in baseball call small sample size, and they apply that concept to wide stretches of months of statistical results, not a handful of games in November without a PG worth a ----, without the teams best player, and only now getting back Nene.

Im not even slightly worried, and won't be till the end of next season if this continues and I suspect his numbers will improve significantly when Wall arrives.

We as a a board are WAY WAY WAY too low after losses, and way way way too high after a couple of wins. Relax. Beal isn't no better than average. He's entirely an unknown professional quantity, and what we do know of him is nearly entirely possible. As I said last spring, Im not judging him on a handful of college games, nor a handful of pro grames. I dont think, and never did believe that he had greatness in him, but I do expect that he will pan out as a player whose either a good starter, or a very good starter. Time will tell, not 10 games with a horse ---- roster missing it's best players.

[pancakes3]

I don't know. With every passing game Beal is showing to be more and more passive, and less and less appealing. Harden was used sparingly in his rookie season but in the games where he was given 30+ minutes, he delivered. Beal's been thrown in the fire and for better or worse he's only shown 2 really GOOD games out of 11.

I think Nate's right on that Beal's ceiling is lower than anticipated.

[dandridge 10]

I think its way, way too early to call Beal a bust. However, I don't think its too early to express some concern. Beal came out of high school billed as a elite shooter. However, through his first year in college and the beginning of his pro career he has been anything but. Moreover, he hasn't shown that killer instinct that you would have from a potential star player. Last night was a perfect example. When Mullens switched on him last night in double overtime, Beal's eyes shot have lit up and he should have went right at him. Instead, you could tell he just wanted to get rid of the ball.

Again, Beal is very, very young, and he certaintly has plenty of time to turn it around. He certainly seems coachable, has good instincts, shooting mechanics, etc so I am not going to write him off. However, I think its not too early to express concern on whether he has that "it" factor.

And, while I think Beal will turn out to at least be a good player, the thing that concerns me the most is that there is certainly a chance that our 1st, 3rd, and 6th picks in the last couple of drafts don't amount to anything more. When you have that many low picks, you have to at least get one all-star and at least one borderline all-star to truly rebuild. I'm not sure one of our low picks are close to either type of player. That scares me.

[truwizfan4evr]

Everyone focus on Beal shooting his shots will start to fall how about his 10 rebounds 5 assist and he even had a 2 block game. This kid has a chance to be good wizards fans are frustrated and i can understand but don't blame Beal a rookie for not playing like a vet 11 games in the season. he's not a finish product he still developing learning only played one season of college and then went straight to the nba he a guy who should of played another season in college. You guys have to be patient with Beal he will get a lot better. He had 2 good games out of 11 mostly rookies do but his effort on d looks pretty good and he has a nice all around game once his shot starts to fall wizards fans will be back on the Beal band wagon.

[The Consiglieri]

You guys could be right. However there is no doubt that judging his entire career on a handful of starts w/o anything remotely resembling a quality roster, and no legit starters that would start for anyone else in the league until a gimpy Nene arrived isn't in my book, remotely a fair eval. Pair him with a real PG, not a D-leaguer/out of the league type, and we'll see what he's about. Judging him now, his entire career prospects now, is 100% insane to me. Even if you guys are right, you're still wrong, because judging anyone on this small a sample size is a foolhardy enterprise and not taking into account the talent around him? Just crazy to me.

I'll be curious where he's at when he's got a front court rotation of Nene and Seraphin and whatever pile of d-league material we start at the 3, and Wall at PG. Judging him now, when every single starter is basically garbage, injured, or both and he's 19, and it's his first 10 games is just so crazy it boggles the mind to me. His chief assets are his shot, his mental make up and approach, his intelligence, and his all around game. Every last one of those assets is harmed by whats been his supporting cast in November.

[The Consiglieri]

I think its way, way too early to call Beal a bust. However, I don't think its too early to express some concern. Beal came out of high school billed as a elite shooter. However, through his first year in college and the beginning of his pro career he has been anything but. Moreover, he hasn't shown that killer instinct that you would have from a potential star player. Last night was a perfect example. When Mullens switched on him last night in double overtime, Beal's eyes shot have lit up and he should have went right at him. Instead, you could tell he just wanted to get rid of the ball.

Again, Beal is very, very young, and he certaintly has plenty of time to turn it around. He certainly seems coachable, has good instincts, shooting mechanics, etc so I am not going to write him off. However, I think its not too early to express concern on whether he has that "it" factor.

And, while I think Beal will turn out to at least be a good player, the thing that concerns me the most is that there is certainly a chance that our 1st, 3rd, and 6th picks in the last couple of drafts don't amount to anything more. When you have that many low picks, you have to at least get one all-star and at least one borderline all-star to truly rebuild. I'm not sure one of our low picks are close to either type of player. That scares me.

i expect Wall to be at worst, a very good player, I already think he's a good one. Vesely, a busted pick in a busted draft. The sad fact is that draft was bad to begin with, and when we got completely hosed in the lottery for the umpteenth time AND refused to trade up, but got fixated on a guy with no seemingly discernible technical skills and no shot, that draft was botched. This draft considering where we were slotted, offered no players with elite potential at a position of need, only Drummond, and maybe Lillard struck me as guys with potential greatness in him (All the barnes hype is silly to me, hes in a perfect situation, and it shows, and he's a professional and always was, his problem has always been passivity and an inability to live up to his potential on the court, and he has 70 college games at an elite instititution with elite coaching where he should have been the #1 option and wasn't even the #2 to show these faults). The one miss we may regret, to me, is Drummond. If he gets it, he'll be great. And we would have easily shoved Seraphin aside for what he could be. That could hurt in time. Nobody else other than maybe Lillard, and he was a PG.

[truwizfan4evr]

This Wizards board is depressing im sure everyone spirits will pick up when we read an article of Ernie's firing.

[nate33]

How can you say that? Plenty of guards have improved during their pro careers. While I’m not comparing Beal to any of the below players, here’s a sample of more recent guards who have developed well after being drafted, and their respective ORtg in their rookie seasons.

Avery Bradley: 68
Jamal Crawford: 84
J.R. Smith: 95
Mike Conley: 97
Rajon Rondo: 97
Russell Westbrook: 99
Jason Terry: 100
Leandro Barbosa: 100
John Wall: 100
O.J. Mayo: 103

Comparing him to hyper athletic PG's like Rondo, Wall and Westbrook is pointless. Beal is nothing like those guys. (Those guys had an impact that exceeded their ORtg.) And among the rest of those guys listed, there isn't much that gets me excited. Crawford, Smith, Terry, Mayo and Barbosa are all bench players or below average starters.

As I said in my post, in no way was I comparing Beal to any of the players referenced. I was simply using the metric that you settled on as the basis of your argument to show that there are several recent examples of players who have improved after being drafted. Personally, that metric does little for me in this argument. There are many players, like James Harden for instance, whose ratings even as rookies were above average but were far less productive than they are today. And development is development, regardless of style of play. To suggest Rondo, Wall and Westbrook must be excluded from the conversation ignores how each of those players improved their all-around skills to complement their athleticism and become better overall players.

I exclude the hyper-athletes because I consider them to be special cases. They never really had to work that much on their jumper or their footwork or basketball IQ. They've gotten by merely be being radically better athletically. A player like that has so much room for improvement that all it takes is a little work ethic and you are sure to get development. This is why I don't have the same concerns about Wall. I know his ceiling is so much higher thanks to his insane length and athleticism; and his obvious rawness fundamentally. He will get better.

Beal isn't in the same category. A guy like Beal, undersized and with only modestly above-average athleticism (for an NBA player), must have worked on his game a great deal to get to where he is today. Accordingly, I don't think hard work is going to lead to dramatic improvement going forward.

The best hope for Beal is that he really excels as an off-the-ball player alongside a primary ball handler like Wall. Hopefully, his shooting percentages will increase dramatically as he gets more open looks in his comfort zone. But even if that's the case, even if he starts shooting 3-pointers at a 43% clip and boosts his TS% up to the 57% range or so, would that make him much better than a guy like Anthony Morrow?

The bottom line is that passive, complementary-scorer shooting guards are a dime a dozen. If that's all Beal is, then I'd rather just have a longer, taller version; like, say, Martell Webster.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

We are completely on the same page. To be honest, I think a lot of people simply need to stop watching, take a step back, and relax. The season is lost, but not Beal's entire career. There's a reason he was a top 3-5 recruit in the nation out of highschool, and regarded as a top 5 prospect out of the entire class for the '12 draft. 10 or 11 or even 40 games this season won't impact my view on his career period. If he's still struggling badly in late '14 I might be worried. Now? Not in the least. People are unfortunately paying attention to every single shot in every single game, and evaluating his career based on small, tiny moments. What Keith law and scouts in baseball call small sample size, and they apply that concept to wide stretches of months of statistical results, not a handful of games in November without a PG worth a ----, without the teams best player, and only now getting back Nene.

Im not even slightly worried, and won't be till the end of next season if this continues and I suspect his numbers will improve significantly when Wall arrives.

We as a a board are WAY WAY WAY too low after losses, and way way way too high after a couple of wins. Relax. Beal isn't no better than average. He's entirely an unknown professional quantity, and what we do know of him is nearly entirely possible. As I said last spring, Im not judging him on a handful of college games, nor a handful of pro grames. I dont think, and never did believe that he had greatness in him, but I do expect that he will pan out as a player whose either a good starter, or a very good starter. Time will tell, not 10 games with a horse ---- roster missing it's best players.

We agree 100%, Consiglieri.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think its way, way too early to call Beal a bust. However, I don't think its too early to express some concern. Beal came out of high school billed as a elite shooter. However, through his first year in college and the beginning of his pro career he has been anything but. Moreover, he hasn't shown that killer instinct that you would have from a potential star player. Last night was a perfect example. When Mullens switched on him last night in double overtime, Beal's eyes shot have lit up and he should have went right at him. Instead, you could tell he just wanted to get rid of the ball.

Again, Beal is very, very young, and he certaintly has plenty of time to turn it around. He certainly seems coachable, has good instincts, shooting mechanics, etc so I am not going to write him off. However, I think its not too early to express concern on whether he has that "it" factor.

And, while I think Beal will turn out to at least be a good player, the thing that concerns me the most is that there is certainly a chance that our 1st, 3rd, and 6th picks in the last couple of drafts don't amount to anything more. When you have that many low picks, you have to at least get one all-star and at least one borderline all-star to truly rebuild. I'm not sure one of our low picks are close to either type of player. That scares me.

i expect Wall to be at worst, a very good player, I already think he's a good one. Vesely, a busted pick in a busted draft. The sad fact is that draft was bad to begin with, and when we got completely hosed in the lottery for the umpteenth time AND refused to trade up, but got fixated on a guy with no seemingly discernible technical skills and no shot, that draft was botched. This draft considering where we were slotted, offered no players with elite potential at a position of need, only Drummond, and maybe Lillard struck me as guys with potential greatness in him (All the barnes hype is silly to me, hes in a perfect situation, and it shows, and he's a professional and always was, his problem has always been passivity and an inability to live up to his potential on the court, and he has 70 college games at an elite instititution with elite coaching where he should have been the #1 option and wasn't even the #2 to show these faults). The one miss we may regret, to me, is Drummond. If he gets it, he'll be great. And we would have easily shoved Seraphin aside for what he could be. That could hurt in time. Nobody else other than maybe Lillard, and he was a PG.

I think Wall is a very physically gifted PG who is a very good player in an uptempo game. I think he's a very good player IF he's got a shooter and a low post threat, which Beal can be and Nene is when healthy.

My bias is I think Wall is worth more traded and I don't think he's a max-contract talent. On top of that, his knee injury has given me pause and added one more log to the fire that makes me see John Wall as someone I would seriously think about trading. Until proven otherwise, John Wall can't shoot a lick from outside. Consiglieri, Wall is likely going to be very good in time but I don't see greatness, necessarily at all in him any more than I see in Beal. In fact, I like that Beal has more of a grinder, predictable winner-thing to him. I can't describe it but I trust him more than I trust John Wall. It is TRULY a prejudice/bias/guess on my part. I agree with you that Beal is still very unproven. I know what I do not like about Wall.

I foresee one guard in this upcoming draft will likely be a Lillard-like talent, and a couple more who are excellent game managers, better in half court than Wall.

IF I WERE TO BE REALLY OPEN-MINDED, I would say let's wait and give Wall and Beal at least 40-50 games together before doing anything. I would still draft C. J. McCollum in this upcoming draft. He's the next Faried/Leonard/Lillard. I have absolute confidence McCollum will be a darned good NBA player.

As to Jan Vesely, Chris Singleton looked disgusting last season. He is better this season. I still wouldn't rule out marginal improvement in the future from Jan. However, this season having Okafor new to the roster and Booker back from injury, starting; and also having Chris Singleton playing PF because of Ariza at SF, was enough to force Vesely into uncomfortable territory. Who is Vesely better than? Seraphin can score on the block. What is Jan's role?

Vesely is definitely a bust for a #6, but the guy plays with energy, moves without the ball, and does all the garbage things that help a team. His weaknesses are his horrific free throw shooting, has bad-to-non-existent perimeter game, his weakness at C, his slowness at SF, and his not having one thing he does exceedingly well. Maybe he dives, catches, and finishes fairly well.[b]

I STILL SAY Vesely is good next to Nene or Kevin, but that's not going to happen much due to this roster chaos created by EG and Ted. It was really bad to draft him at #6 and now they've pretty much sealed his fate barring some roster moves.

[dandridge 10]

You guys could be right. However there is no doubt that judging his entire career on a handful of starts w/o anything remotely resembling a quality roster, and no legit starters that would start for anyone else in the league until a gimpy Nene arrived isn't in my book, remotely a fair eval. Pair him with a real PG, not a D-leaguer/out of the league type, and we'll see what he's about. Judging him now, his entire career prospects now, is 100% insane to me. Even if you guys are right, you're still wrong, because judging anyone on this small a sample size is a foolhardy enterprise and not taking into account the talent around him? Just crazy to me.

I'll be curious where he's at when he's got a front court rotation of Nene and Seraphin and whatever pile of d-league material we start at the 3, and Wall at PG. Judging him now, when every single starter is basically garbage, injured, or both and he's 19, and it's his first 10 games is just so crazy it boggles the mind to me. His chief assets are his shot, his mental make up and approach, his intelligence, and his all around game. Every last one of those assets is harmed by whats been his supporting cast in November.

I don't know if this was in response to my post, but I am not just relying on a "handful of starts" to express my concerns. Beal had the same issues in his first year of college. Again, I'm not declaring Beal a bust...just that there are reasons why I am concerned. I am glad you don't share them...I hope you are right over me.

Regarding the garbage that surrounds Beal, I agree with you. However, despite the garbage around him, you can't say that Beal has not gotten open looks during games this year. He has. Indeed, during the Bobcats game he had several open looks, a couple within 15 feet. Unfortunately, he did not hit them. I will feel more confident about Beal once he starts hitting those open shots (even if he continues to struggle creating his own). Because if he can't hit open shots without Nene and Wall, he is still not going to hit open shots with them.

I still like Beal. I like his defense and how he can contribute when his shot is not falling (unlike Nick Young). He is very young and there is A LOT of room for growth and improvement. He could possibly be a great or very good player. However, I think you are just looking through rose colored glasses if you don't have some concerns based how he played in college and how is has started his professional career. Admitting that there are issues of concern is not the same as saying he sucks or will be a bust.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

dandridge, I like Marcus Smart better than Beal FWIW.

Some guys DO have greatness in them. I think Beal is going to have to become a Jeff Malone but not a prime Mitch Richmond or Ray Allen.

Still, the reason I'm not concerned about Beal is that at 19 years old this guy is going to mature and contribute a lot of positives to a team, whether he's a superstar or not. Look at how Fisher helped the Lakers over the years. Guys like Battier, Horry, and Vinny Microwave Johnson helped teams. If it turns out that Beal has to settle into that kind of role I still foresee him being very valuable to a team.

But it is early yet ...

[truwizfan4evr]

Nate,Don't forget he also can pass well and rebound he has a decent all around game. He also has the ability to drive Beal is not a 1 dimensional player like Anthony Morrow.

[hands11]

I think its way, way too early to call Beal a bust. However, I don't think its too early to express some concern. Beal came out of high school billed as a elite shooter. However, through his first year in college and the beginning of his pro career he has been anything but. Moreover, he hasn't shown that killer instinct that you would have from a potential star player. Last night was a perfect example. When Mullens switched on him last night in double overtime, Beal's eyes shot have lit up and he should have went right at him. Instead, you could tell he just wanted to get rid of the ball.

Again, Beal is very, very young, and he certaintly has plenty of time to turn it around. He certainly seems coachable, has good instincts, shooting mechanics, etc so I am not going to write him off. However, I think its not too early to express concern on whether he has that "it" factor.

And, while I think Beal will turn out to at least be a good player, the thing that concerns me the most is that there is certainly a chance that our 1st, 3rd, and 6th picks in the last couple of drafts don't amount to anything more. When you have that many low picks, you have to at least get one all-star and at least one borderline all-star to truly rebuild. I'm not sure one of our low picks are close to either type of player. That scares me.

It is a concern. Depression is setting in. Hard to see a win in sight.