Bradley Beal - Part III

[Dark Faze]

Turn down playing and learning from coach K and some of the best US coaches along with scrimagging and playing with and shadowing the best NBA players in the world in order to work on step backs with 5'9 Drew Hanlen brehs

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Juwan Howard was traded. Arenas was traded. Overpaid and traded were both.

Beal will eventually be traded.

This player effectively only played three of four seasons on his rookie deal. (81 missed games)

His regular season numbers all pointed to an average SG.

Nothing but a great playoffs vs Toronto suggests Beal is a special talent.

Fortunately, there are others besides Ernie and Ted who IMO have below to well below average intelligence.

Beal can be traded.

Sent from my LG-H345 using RealGM mobile app

[nate33]

Turn down playing and learning from coach K and some of the best US coaches along with scrimagging and playing with and shadowing the best NBA players in the world in order to work on step backs with 5'9 Drew Hanlen brehs

I'm not gonna bash the decision to turn down the USA team opportunity. We don't really know exactly how useful it is as a training tool. It may well have been a better strategy for Beal to work independently on his fundamentals rather than spend so much time learning plays and running schemes that he won't be running on the Wizards.

Beal needs to shoot better. I don't see any reason to believe that playing on the national team would have helped him to shoot better.

[Ruzious]

Granted, it's just 3 games, but Beal's PER is 8.5 - which is absurdly low for someone who's expected to be the team's leading scorer - and I think the Wiz organization expects him to be their leading scorer. He's sure to do better, but I think he owes us and his teammates a reason for his poor play.

"Owes us and his teammates an explanation?"

For what?

I mean dude's off to a bad start. Nothing else to be said.

Just gotta work through it.

Asking for an explanation isn't asking for a whole lot. And he's not off to a bad start; he's off to a terrible start.

[Wizardspride]

Granted, it's just 3 games, but Beal's PER is 8.5 - which is absurdly low for someone who's expected to be the team's leading scorer - and I think the Wiz organization expects him to be their leading scorer. He's sure to do better, but I think he owes us and his teammates a reason for his poor play.

"Owes us and his teammates an explanation?"

For what?

I mean dude's off to a bad start. Nothing else to be said.

Just gotta work through it.

Asking for an explanation isn't asking for a whole lot. And he's not off to a bad start; he's off to a terrible start.

What exactly are you expecting him to say?

Bradley Beal: I'm not playing well.

Teammates & fans: No kidding.

[Ruzious]

"Owes us and his teammates an explanation?"

For what?

I mean dude's off to a bad start. Nothing else to be said.

Just gotta work through it.

Asking for an explanation isn't asking for a whole lot. And he's not off to a bad start; he's off to a terrible start.

What exactly are you expecting him to say?

Bradley Beal: I'm not playing well.

Teammates & fans: No kidding.

Maybe a reason for him not playing well? Dude, let's drop it.

[J-Ves]

Time for some statistical analysis on Beal's very terrible 7 games played this season! First the good(or how he has improved from years past on a very small sample)!

Shot selection- Beal has taken 61.4% "good" FG attempts this year(defined as shots at the rim and 3 point line). That's up from 57% last year and 51.9% his first 3 seasons. Still too many mid range Js but he has shown consistent improvement in this area throughout his career. He has taken 4.8% more shots at the rim this year compared to last which entirely accounts for his uptick in "good" shots.

FT rate- He currently has a 28.7 FTr(Number of FTa per FGa) which is up an impressive 6.7% from last year and 9% from his first 3 seasons. We've seen him add a hesitation move when going to the basket that has looked quite effective and polished so maybe this improved number isn't a fluke. I'm hopeful at least.

TO%- 8.8% is the number right now and that's better than the over 11% he's posted the last 2 years. Is this a fluke? To my untrained eye it looks like his handle is slightly tighter and he seems to be falling over randomly less often, so good ish.

Now the bad and even worse!

3pt %- His stroke is off(29%) and its not clear why as he isn't taking more shots per minute from last year. He has always hovered around 40% from 3, so for all his negatives I expect this to sort its self out the most.

Mid-range shooting- The infamous "bad" shot, he has never been good here and continues to not be good (36%). His shots are down slightly from mid-range but are still too damn high.

Finishing at the rim- This is the big one, he is making an abysmal 46.4% shots at the rim, Brad has never been a great finisher but he is down a whopping 16.2% from his career average. All his work to get to the rim is undercut by his inability to finish and frankly this is very worrisome. Is it due to a lack of hops or poor touch around the rim or inability to finish though contact? All of the above? I don't know but its something that needs to improve dramatically.

Misc.- Reb% and Ast% are down. Neither are too worrisome, imo. We are asking him to be a high usage/high efficiency scorer first and foremost.

[nate33]

Time for some statistical analysis on Beal's very terrible 7 games played this season! First the good(or how he has improved from years past on a very small sample)!

Shot selection- Beal has taken 61.4% "good" FG attempts this year(defined as shots at the rim and 3 point line). That's up from 57% last year and 51.9% his first 3 seasons. Still too many mid range Js but he has shown consistent improvement in this area throughout his career. He has taken 4.8% more shots at the rim this year compared to last which entirely accounts for his uptick in "good" shots.

FT rate- He currently has a 28.7 FTr(Number of FTa per FGa) which is up an impressive 6.7% from last year and 9% from his first 3 seasons. We've seen him add a hesitation move when going to the basket that has looked quite effective and polished so maybe this improved number isn't a fluke. I'm hopeful at least.

TO%- 8.8% is the number right now and that's better than the over 11% he's posted the last 2 years. Is this a fluke? To my untrained eye it looks like his handle is slightly tighter and he seems to be falling over randomly less often, so good ish.

Now the bad and even worse!

3pt %- His stroke is off(29%) and its not clear why as he isn't taking more shots per minute from last year. He has always hovered around 40% from 3, so for all his negatives I expect this to sort its self out the most.

Mid-range shooting- The infamous "bad" shot, he has never been good here and continues to not be good (36%). His shots are down slightly from mid-range but are still too damn high.

Finishing at the rim- This is the big one, he is making an abysmal 46.4% shots at the rim, Brad has never been a great finisher but he is down a whopping 16.2% from his career average. All his work to get to the rim is undercut by his inability to finish and frankly this is very worrisome. Is it due to a lack of hops or poor touch around the rim or inability to finish though contact? All of the above? I don't know but its something that needs to improve dramatically.

Misc.- Reb% and Ast% are down. Neither are too worrisome, imo. We are asking him to be a high usage/high efficiency scorer first and foremost.

Good breakdown. I think the uptick in FTR is a fluke solely due to that one 14 FTA game. He may have improved this aspect of his game ever so slightly thanks to the increased shot selection in the paint, but I see no evidence that he has developed any shot fakes or other techniques specifically to draw fouls.

I agree that the drop in 3P% is probably also a fluke and should return to his historical 38-40% range.

I'm actually shocked that his mid-range shooting is as high as you say it is. I feel like he has made only 2 or 3 midrange jumpers all year.

[J-Ves]

Time for some statistical analysis on Beal's very terrible 7 games played this season! First the good(or how he has improved from years past on a very small sample)!

Shot selection- Beal has taken 61.4% "good" FG attempts this year(defined as shots at the rim and 3 point line). That's up from 57% last year and 51.9% his first 3 seasons. Still too many mid range Js but he has shown consistent improvement in this area throughout his career. He has taken 4.8% more shots at the rim this year compared to last which entirely accounts for his uptick in "good" shots.

FT rate- He currently has a 28.7 FTr(Number of FTa per FGa) which is up an impressive 6.7% from last year and 9% from his first 3 seasons. We've seen him add a hesitation move when going to the basket that has looked quite effective and polished so maybe this improved number isn't a fluke. I'm hopeful at least.

TO%- 8.8% is the number right now and that's better than the over 11% he's posted the last 2 years. Is this a fluke? To my untrained eye it looks like his handle is slightly tighter and he seems to be falling over randomly less often, so good ish.

Now the bad and even worse!

3pt %- His stroke is off(29%) and its not clear why as he isn't taking more shots per minute from last year. He has always hovered around 40% from 3, so for all his negatives I expect this to sort its self out the most.

Mid-range shooting- The infamous "bad" shot, he has never been good here and continues to not be good (36%). His shots are down slightly from mid-range but are still too damn high.

Finishing at the rim- This is the big one, he is making an abysmal 46.4% shots at the rim, Brad has never been a great finisher but he is down a whopping 16.2% from his career average. All his work to get to the rim is undercut by his inability to finish and frankly this is very worrisome. Is it due to a lack of hops or poor touch around the rim or inability to finish though contact? All of the above? I don't know but its something that needs to improve dramatically.

Misc.- Reb% and Ast% are down. Neither are too worrisome, imo. We are asking him to be a high usage/high efficiency scorer first and foremost.

Good breakdown. I think the uptick in FTR is a fluke solely due to that one 14 FTA game. He may have improved this aspect of his game ever so slightly thanks to the increased shot selection in the paint, but I see no evidence that he has developed any shot fakes or other techniques specifically to draw fouls.

I agree that the drop in 3P% is probably also a fluke and should return to his historical 38-40% range.

I'm actually shocked that his mid-range shooting is as high as you say it is. I feel like he has made only 2 or 3 midrange jumpers all year.

Yeah, I screwed up the mid-range number. According to basketballreference.com his FG% on 2pt shots outside of 8 feet is 31.3%. Last year he shot 39.4% from the same distance.

http://bkref.com/tiny/z54WQ

[payitforward]

Well, if one or another of these numbers is small-sample "fluke and should return to his historical... range," then so is any other number; so are they all.

[nate33]

It might be time to dial down the Bradley Beal hate just a bit. Looking at the numbers, he's actually showing some real promising signs in his shot selection and overall play, even though his jumper has been really off.

First of all, his per possession numbers are in line with his career averages:



His rebounding is down a bit, but his points per game and assists per game are in line, his turnovers are down, and his FTA's are up. Indeed, despite his horrible shooting, his ORtg is actually well above his career highs thanks to the drop in turnovers and the additional FTA's. (He's also making his free throws, which is nice.)

His advance numbers show promise as well:



His PER and WS/48 are now ahead of his career average and his 2015/16 averages despite his awful shooting. His shot selection is much improved with a much higher FT rate and 3PA rate. Looking at the shooting numbers in more depth, there is even more cause for optimism:



His percentage of shots at the rim are at a career high .268. He's nearly eliminated the difficult-to-make contested shots from 3-16 feet. He's keeping the long 2's down and has a career high in percentage of shots from 3-point range. Note also that he's managing to get more shots from the rim or behind the arc despite his percentage of assisted shots dropping precipitously. Beal is creating these shots himself. (By the way, these shot numbers will improve once the data from the Miami game is posted. Beal shot 26 shots against Miami, 11 were from behind the arc and 6 were at the rim. Only 3 were long 2's.)

If Beal breaks out of his shooting slump and gets back to shooting his career averages from various distances, but with his new found shot selection and ability to get to the line, he is going to easily have the best year of his career.

[payitforward]

Brad is doing better at one thing: Free Throws -- getting to the line more and shooting a higher %. Some of the things you like (shots at rim) are reflected in the results we see, which aren't good.

Actually, as well his TOs are slightly down and his blocks slightly up.

The rest is an absolute mess. Last year his eFG% was .52. This year it's .45. His rebounding is down 30%. PER is especially inaccurate as a measure of guys who are volume shooters like Brad.

Still, this is still a small sample. And, of course, if he breaks out of his shooting slump he'll be better. He might have the best year of his career.

Unfortunately, having the best year of his career might not make him very good. So far, despite claims to the contrary, he's never even been an average NBA starting 2. It's hard to imagine him ever coming close to justifying his salary.

But the hate should be lavished on Ernie not Brad! So basically I agree.

[SizzlinSimms]

We have the worst bench and role players imaginable, so we're asking Wall and Beal and a lesser role of Otto and Gortat to win us games. It's just not gonna happen. Jason freaking Smith! Marcus Thornton reminds me of Gary Neal last year. Oubre is horrible at handling the ball. I actually do like Satoransky, though.

Anyway, even if Beal does well, we aren't gonna win this year. I like Bradley, and maybe in the minority that does, I will say his injuries constantly are an annoyance and are making slightly fall of favor towards him, but we need help across the board.

So far, despite claims to the contrary, he's never even been an average NBA starting 2. It's hard to imagine him ever coming close to justifying his salary..

This year it's hard to say since so many teams' SG are starting so poorly and shooting awful, but yes I can agree with the hard to justify the salary part.

Problem with Bradley is that he's not a player that evaluates the team, like Wall can at times through his passing.

[WizarDynasty]

when Beal hits 500FTA in a season and gets over 120 steals in a season. I might start to believe. He hasn't come anywhere close to allstar guard status with these two metrics.

[nate33]

when Beal hits 500FTA in a season and gets over 120 steals in a season. I might start to believe. He hasn't come anywhere close to allstar guard status with these two metrics.

500 FTA is an unreasonable goal. Only 9 players in the league reached that mark last year, and only 4 of them were guards (Harden, DeRozan, Westbrook, and I.Thomas). Beal clearly isn't that type of player. But it's fair to say that his FTA's have been anemic throughout his career. His career average is 3.1 per 36 minutes. It's hard to characterize him as anything more than an average player unless he can get that FTA's number up to about 5.0 per 36. He is currently averaging 5.0 per 36 so, if he keeps it up, I'll be pretty happy.

It's interesting that he is so poor at getting steals. I don't think players typically improve in that skill.

[tontoz]

There was a play in the NY game that was vintage Beal. He was switched onto Rose who shot a 3. After the shot Beal started leaking out early trying to cherry pick an easy fast break basket. Sure enough the ball bounces right back to Rose and he swings it to another player who hits a 3.

Beal has been doing that for years. He just doesn't learn, or is more interested in cherry picking than winning games.

[Dark Faze]

There is some potential for a progression to the mean for Brad which could mean good things. If he can keep up his driving and free throw shooting while also having his shooting numbers hit career averages of .43/.40, then I could see him as a 20-21 ppg, 18-19 PER player. Not max worthy but not a horrific overpay either, and very moveable.

That combined with Walls improvement and Otto's...man we should be good. This is really about Ernies horrific management in terms of our record

[WizarDynasty]

when Beal hits 500FTA in a season and gets over 120 steals in a season. I might start to believe. He hasn't come anywhere close to allstar guard status with these two metrics.

500 FTA is an unreasonable goal. Only 9 players in the league reached that mark last year, and only 4 of them were guards (Harden, DeRozan, Westbrook, and I.Thomas). Beal clearly isn't that type of player. But it's fair to say that his FTA's have been anemic throughout his career. His career average is 3.1 per 36 minutes. It's hard to characterize him as anything more than an average player unless he can get that FTA's number up to about 5.0 per 36. He is currently averaging 5.0 per 36 so, if he keeps it up, I'll be pretty happy.

It's interesting that he is so poor at getting steals. I don't think players typically improve in that skill.

I don't really care about averages with Beal. If he can't give us a full season of production, averages really mean nothing. Allstar shooting guards on max contracts earn their contracts by giving you a full season of production, not half of a season. If Beal hits 500 FTA, that means he stayed healthy and performed a full season like an allstar, not for a stretch of games. He demanded a max contract because he felt he was an allstar shooting guard. If can't keep your production for 82 games without getting injured, then you are not a allstar. 500 FTA means he was able to get through a full season and match historically what true allstar shooting guards perform. Again, he is a shooting guard, that is his job. And allstar guard typically averages over 110 steals per season. Allstar guards who make the allstar team annually normally attempt 500FTA. Beal believed that he was an allstar. If you can't produce for 82 games like an allstar, then you aren't an allstar. Let him be an allstar for 10 games out of the year for another team. the other 70 games he fall well below the averages of an allstar shooting guard both in FTA and Steal. Again, his body can't keep up with the grind like i stated in the otto porter thread. He should have been fair to his team and took a lower salary so that the team wouldn't demand as much from him. Let him be someone else's worry based on the idea that he has stressed related injuries based on number of minutes played. that is not a max player and when he does play, he well below average in the two most important stats, FTA and Steals per game.
He is a guard, not a forward so shot blocking and rebounding shouldn't be his primary concern but if he thinks that because he rebounds and gets more blocks than the average guard, then he should guard small forwards. It is far more important for a shooting guard to get FTA 10 times a game than it is for him to grab the rebound off a missed shot. Far more important for a shooting guard to get a steal than it is for him to get a blocked shot.

[Dark Faze]

Need to look back at the film of his game against PHX--he could have had 50 in that one and he's never come close to looking that good.

It's clear something has clicked for him mentally in terms of driving--the same goes for John, though in John's case it may be a case of improvement with the knee.

[nate33]

Need to look back at the film of his game against PHX--he could have had 50 in that one and he's never come close to looking that good.

It's clear something has clicked for him mentally in terms of driving--the same goes for John, though in John's case it may be a case of improvement with the knee.

He has gotten much better at probing the defense while keeping his dribble alive. He slashes for a step or two, then steps back as if he's about to pull up for a shot, but it's a hesitation dribble that allows him to get into the lane. He does it all while keeping his dribble much lower so he doesn't lose it.

He's getting to the line more mostly because he's simply taking more shots that he is creating one-on-one. (When your game is only catch-and-shoot, you don't get to the line.) I don't think he has really developed the kind of shot fakes that are designed to draw fouls (a la Dwyane Wade). That's what I'd really like to see.