The Troy Brown Thread

[Ruzious]

Can we talk about how Zhaire Smith is averaging 8 points and 2 rebounds on 33% shooting in the summer league? (23% from 3) 10 PER, .02 win shares. 109 defensive rating

He’s also -50 overall.

Brown averaged 18 points 7 rebounds 2 assists and 1.4 steals on 43% shooting. 16 PER .16 win shares. 95.2 defensive rating.

Brown is younger!

Entire world is slobbing over Knox for averaging 21&6 on 35% shooting. -.04 win shares. .481 TS% (lower than Brown) a ridiculous 110.5 defensive rating. More minutes played and a far higher usage than Brown.

Agreed that folks are fawning foolishly over Knox' SL performances while his stats weren't very good. But being a chucker will get you noticed, and he does pass the eye tests.

Don't agree that the SL stats mean much in a Brown vs Smith comp. I have little doubt that Smith will be the more effective player during the course of their rookie contracts. Hope I'm wrong.

[I_Like_Dirt]

I don't think you mentioned Brown as a prospective pick for us, did you? No, you didn't. So you are an example of what I described.

I didn't mention anyone before the draft. I actually thought Ernie would trade the pick to get out from under the tax. But by your logic anyone who didn't post before the draft and likes the pick, or even those who change their mind, must be Ernie apologists. I hope you can see where you're abandoning reason on this line of thinking.

Here's the thing, the Wizards' recent draft history is actually pretty good. Anyone who flat out hated any of the picks would have been wrong, unless you're willing to count 2nd rounders in the mid-40s or lower, at which point too many hairs are being split. Oubre, Porter, Beal and Sato were all quality picks. Not necessarily the best player on the board, but close enough, and all quality NBA players. You literally have to go back to 2011 to find a bad Wizards draft (and what a bad draft it was). Ernie clearly isn't particularly interested in the draft or developing players, but when he's done it for the past 6 years, he's done a reasonable job. Heck, I don't love the Sanon pick, but I also don't hate it. Sato was drafted in 2012 and is showing to have been a decent pick only now. I'm willing to wait on Sanon rather than having a guy who will play this season only to prove he doesn't belong in the NBA before Sanon even has a chance to show what he can do.

But that really has nothing to do with Brown overall. Just looking at Brown on his own merits, he's clearly talented. The only reason to like guys more than him is if you're willing to prioritize athleticism over basically everything else. And Brown isn't even a terrible athlete or anything, just not as good as some of the other guys who happen to have worse BBall IQs while being worse passers and defenders. Brown may bust, but I don't legitimately see the argument to be so down on him. Heck, even arguing that he should have been traded down to 19 to pick him rather than taking him at 15 or whatever is sort of missing the point. Those kinds of trades almost never amount to much in the end.

I also tend to feel people bend over too far to themselves on the back where scouting is concerned. Not because they're bad scouts, but because they don't actually give enough credit to NBA teams. This doesn't work where teams can throw out 15 names, and if 3 of those 15 guys are good, including one of them being a star, then they're brilliant scouts. NBA teams get to pick a single player with their pick. Just one. That's a scenario designed to make people look far worse than if they only get one pick. For the record, I also like Troy Brown more than Oubre as a prospect.

[barelyawake]

I didn’t do a deep dive, this year, into the draft - beyond not seeing any bigs late that particularly popped out to me.

That said, Troy seems to have the things said about him that projects to being a productive player in the nba. High basketball IQ, good court vision, good motor, high work ethic, good wingspan, wise beyond his age, tough defender. Think about the players that applies to. Now add high flyer. Now think of the players whose knock was slow foot speed (coming in), but who had the above. We might have selected better. I don’t know not having done the homework. But, I like what I hear. And a guy who can distribute and defend will get playing time (well deserves to get playing time and with most coaches would), as he develops the rest. A Sato, Brown, Oubre, Porter line-up sounds good to me. Especially if we traded for Gasol.

[dckingsfan]

I didn’t do a deep dive, this year, into the draft - beyond not seeing any bigs late that particularly popped out to me.

That said, Troy seems to have the things said about him that projects to being a productive player in the nba. High basketball IQ, good court vision, good motor, high work ethic, good wingspan, wise beyond his age, tough defender. Think about the players that applies to. Now add high flyer. Now think of the players whose knock was slow foot speed (coming in), but who had the above. We might have selected better. I don’t know not having done the homework. But, I like what I hear. And a guy who can distribute and defend will get playing time (well deserves to get playing time and with most coaches would), as he develops the rest. A Sato, Brown, Oubre, Porter line-up sounds good to me. Especially if we traded for Gasol.

You missed Dat nailing the big we should have taken

[Kanyewest]

Kevin O'Connor is still on the Smith bandwagon. Troy Brown is not far behind
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/7/26/17615912/2018-nba-redraft

[payitforward]

... the Wizards' recent draft history is actually pretty good. Anyone who flat out hated any of the picks would have been wrong, unless you're willing to count 2nd rounders in the mid-40s or lower, at which point too many hairs are being split. Oubre, Porter, Beal and Sato were all quality picks. Not necessarily the best player on the board, but close enough, and all quality NBA players. You literally have to go back to 2011 to find a bad Wizards draft (and what a bad draft it was). ...

Sorry, no. Not giving him credit as "pretty good" for taking 2 players at #3. Here are the last ten #3 picks:

James Harden
Derrick Favors
Enes Kanter
Bradley Beal
Otto Porter
Joel Embiid
Jahlil Okafor
Jaylen Brown
Jayson Tatum
Luka Doncic

One bust. One guy who's terrific on offense & bad on defense. The rest terrific. Anyone can pick #3.

He should get no credit for picking Satoransky either. The guy proceeded to spend the next almost half his career elsewhere. Wouldn't matter except that when he was picked Draymond Green, Jae Crowder, Will Barton & Khris Middleton were on the board -- with us screaming their names here!!

You want to call Sato a good pick, just not as good as a bunch of guys on a message board would have made? That's part of your claim for Ernie?

There's also much more than the 4 picks you mention that is part of Ernie's "draft history." In fact, since we took John Wall through 2017, we've had 18 picks that weren't #3 picks. 1 we traded for Gortat, 2 we turned into Oubre, 1 we took Sato, 1 (a lottery pick!) went for Kieff.

The other 14 were all p#$$ed away -- not to mention (which you don't) the future picks that he p#ssed away -- those count too. Next year's goes in the Oubre deal for example.

But that really has nothing to do with Brown overall. ...he's clearly talented. ...I don't legitimately see the argument to be so down on him. ...

Right. Nothing to do with Brown. He is talented. But... who is down on Troy Brown Jr.? No one as far as I can tell. Above all, for about the 20th time, I am not down on Brown.

I think we made a terrible use of an exceptional draft. Ernie erred in taking Brown @15. If he just had to have him, he needed to find another way to get him that also got us something else.

Please notice that none of these statements is about Troy Brown. These are statements about Ernie & the Wizards FO. Not about Troy Brown.

...even arguing that he should have been traded down to 19 to pick him rather than taking him at 15 or whatever is sort of missing the point. Those kinds of trades almost never amount to much in the end.

Really? Do they work in the other direction? Trading up from #19 to #15 is ok, but the other way not so much?

But, wait a minute... gosh, I guess any one of those trades is actually both kinds, isn't it?

Remind me again, how did we acquire Kelly Oubre?

I also tend to feel people bend over too far to themselves on the back where scouting is concerned. Not because they're bad scouts, but because they don't actually give enough credit to NBA teams. This doesn't work where teams can throw out 15 names, and if 3 of those 15 guys are good, including one of them being a star, then they're brilliant scouts. NBA teams get to pick a single player with their pick. Just one. That's a scenario designed to make people look far worse than if they only get one pick. For the record, I also like Troy Brown more than Oubre as a prospect.

For sure, people have selective memory & they don't like admitting mistakes. They tend to remember their good ideas not their bad ideas.

There haven't been a whole lot of really smart, really good things to remember about Ernie's drafts.

[prime1time]

Can we get a dedicated Ernie thread? It's kind of lame to come into thread after thread about non-Ernie topics and see Ernie be debated over and over again.

[montestewart]

Can we get a dedicated Ernie thread? It's kind of lame to come into thread after thread about non-Ernie topics and see Ernie be debated over and over again.

There are plenty. I just bumped one for you, and there's another one lower down on the index page

[NatP4]

Can we get a dedicated Ernie thread? It's kind of lame to come into thread after thread about non-Ernie topics and see Ernie be debated over and over again.

There are plenty. I just bumped one for you, and there's another one lower down on the index page

Point missed

[Wizardspride]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

[I_Like_Dirt]

Right. Nothing to do with Brown. He is talented. But... who is down on Troy Brown Jr.? No one as far as I can tell. Above all, for about the 20th time, I am not down on Brown.

I think we made a terrible use of an exceptional draft. Ernie erred in taking Brown @15. If he just had to have him, he needed to find another way to get him that also got us something else.

Please notice that none of these statements is about Troy Brown. These are statements about Ernie & the Wizards FO. Not about Troy Brown.

Great. So you aren't down on Troy Brown, you just think a bunch of the guys drafted after him are better than him... even though picking specific guys, beyond Smith, who is highly debatable, doesn't seem to be something you've really been willing to do when pressed for specifics. If you're willing to split hairs in value between the 15th and 20th picks while also making the argument that some team in the next 5 picks would have actually been willing to give up something worthwhile to trade up for some reason, then you're also talking about Brown; you're just trying to hide behind different words to make it seem otherwise.

As for none of those statements being about Brown. You're in the Troy Brown thread talking about Troy Brown in the draft and complaining about how the Wizards did in said draft. And then you also have the other statements you made where you are specifically talking about Brown. There are already several Ernie threads out there if you don't want me to believe that you're also talking about Brown. It's a Troy Brown thread. Find me the posters here who are actually saying legitimately positive things about Brown rather than backhanded compliments or worse. And you wonder who is down on Troy Brown?

[payitforward]

Right. Nothing to do with Brown. He is talented. But... who is down on Troy Brown Jr.? No one as far as I can tell. Above all, for about the 20th time, I am not down on Brown.

I think we made a terrible use of an exceptional draft. Ernie erred in taking Brown @15. If he just had to have him, he needed to find another way to get him that also got us something else.

Please notice that none of these statements is about Troy Brown. These are statements about Ernie & the Wizards FO. Not about Troy Brown.

Great. So you aren't down on Troy Brown, you just think a bunch of the guys drafted after him are better than him... even though picking specific guys, beyond Smith, who is highly debatable, doesn't seem to be something you've really been willing to do when pressed for specifics. If you're willing to split hairs in value between the 15th and 20th picks while also making the argument that some team in the next 5 picks would have actually been willing to give up something worthwhile to trade up for some reason, then you're also talking about Brown; you're just trying to hide behind different words to make it seem otherwise.

As for none of those statements being about Brown. You're in the Troy Brown thread talking about Troy Brown in the draft and complaining about how the Wizards did in said draft. And then you also have the other statements you made where you are specifically talking about Brown. There are already several Ernie threads out there if you don't want me to believe that you're also talking about Brown. It's a Troy Brown thread. Find me the posters here who are actually saying legitimately positive things about Brown rather than backhanded compliments or worse. And you wonder who is down on Troy Brown?

I'm really struggling how to express the difference between liking a player & liking the decision to pick that player at a certain spot in the draft. I'll try another way. Do me a favor & don't turn into a dispute, ok?

Instead of distinguishing between a draft pick on the one hand & a player on the other hand, suppose that instead we think about a trade vs. the player acquired in that trade.

I can like a player, think he's good -- while still looking at a trade proposed as a way to acquire the guy & thinking "no, that's not a good trade."

An example of that in Wizards history might be Gortat vs. the trade we made to acquire Gortat. If you remember, Marcin was expiring the year we traded for him. &, if you remember as well, we were forced to acquire a starting Center on short notice, b/c the FO had no plan B in case Okafor (who had been injured before) was injured.

As a result, Phoenix was able to make us hold our sox in that trade -- for an expiring backup Center whom they did not plan to re-sign & didn't want even that season, we were forced to trade a R1 pick while also taking back every bad salary the Suns had & wanted to dump.

Now, I liked Gortat then, & I like him now. He was a terrific player for us. IOW, I'm not "down" on Marcin Gortat. But, that was still a bad trade by every other standard. We could have acquired Gortat for less had we not been in such straits. It was our situation that forced us to use too much value in assets (pick & $) to acquire him.

Similarly, I *like* Troy Brown Jr. But, I think we gave too much value in assets (a #15 pick) to acquire him.

Along the same lines, I like Khyri Thomas; I think he can be a pretty good NBA guard. I also think he was excellent value at #38, which is where he was picked.

But, if Khyri Thomas had gone in the first part of the 20s in R1, I would have thought it was a terrible pick. Bad pick not bad player. Why not trade down & get him later plus whatever you acquire in the trade?

Of course, there's no question that you open up the possibility of not getting that player if you go in that direction. & if you really think your guy (Brown, in this case) is just so very much better than anyone else on the board that you absolutely must have him, then there is no choice. Take him.

Apparently that is what we thought. In this draft, however, I think that was an untenable belief. This was a hell of a deep draft. If we didn't get Troy Brown Jr. we'd have gotten an equally good prospect, plus another pick -- one that might have gotten us Khyri Thomas, for example.

[Kanyewest]

Zhaire Smith suffers an injury- another injury to another 76ers rookie (Noel, Embiid, Simmons, Fultz).

Read on Twitter

[DCZards]

Right. Nothing to do with Brown. He is talented. But... who is down on Troy Brown Jr.? No one as far as I can tell. Above all, for about the 20th time, I am not down on Brown.

I think we made a terrible use of an exceptional draft. Ernie erred in taking Brown @15. If he just had to have him, he needed to find another way to get him that also got us something else.

If the Zards had drafted Zhaire Smith with the 15th pick rather than Brown would you still think that EG erred in taking Smith @ 15 instead of trading down to take advantage of what you consider an exceptional draft?

[dckingsfan]

Right. Nothing to do with Brown. He is talented. But... who is down on Troy Brown Jr.? No one as far as I can tell. Above all, for about the 20th time, I am not down on Brown.

I think we made a terrible use of an exceptional draft. Ernie erred in taking Brown @15. If he just had to have him, he needed to find another way to get him that also got us something else.

If the Zards had drafted Zhaire Smith with the 15th pick rather than Brown would you still think that EG erred in taking Smith @ 15 instead of trading down to take advantage of what you consider an exceptional draft?

Or if the Wizards had traded Atlanta, we could have ended up with both Brown and Mitchell Robinson?

I know, I know - but a guy can dream...

[payitforward]

Right. Nothing to do with Brown. He is talented. But... who is down on Troy Brown Jr.? No one as far as I can tell. Above all, for about the 20th time, I am not down on Brown.

I think we made a terrible use of an exceptional draft. Ernie erred in taking Brown @15. If he just had to have him, he needed to find another way to get him that also got us something else.

If the Zards had drafted Zhaire Smith with the 15th pick rather than Brown would you still think that EG erred in taking Smith @ 15 instead of trading down to take advantage of what you consider an exceptional draft?

Good question. Like a lot of people -- including Nat & others here -- I had Zhaire Smith as the guy I hoped we could get. I.e. the best player who had a good chance to drop to us. There were also a few, one of whom might have dropped to us, whom I'd have taken before Smith (Gilgeous-Alexander, either of the Bridges brothers, roll the dice on Michael Porter, Jr.), but none did: so, yes, I would have taken Smith.

Now, we know for a fact that I couldn't have traded down & still gotten Smith, b/c he went with the next pick. But... this was a deep draft, so if someone had been ringing my phone with an offer on our pick, I'd have listened with interest.

E.g. had Atlanta offered #s 19 & 34 I'd have been hard-pressed to say no. I'd still have an excellent chance to get Troy Brown, if I'm high on the guy, or Kevin Huerter, Grayson Allen or even Wagner -- plus, say, Mitchell Robinson.

Troy Brown & Mitchell Robinson is better than just Troy Brown -- by definition. If he's gone, then I'm still feeling that Grayson Allen & MItchell Robinson is better than just Troy Brown. Better *picks.* All of them, Robinson - Allen - Brown, could turn out busts of course!

If Philly had offered #s26 & 38, that too would have been tempting. Mitchell Robinson & either Khyri Thomas or DeAnthony Melton -- that too seems like more value than just Troy. Or maybe it could have been 26, 38 & 39, so that we get both Thomas & Melton.

Plus whoever we took @#44 (Diallo? Bates-Diop? Metu?).

That's more in the direction I'd have liked to see the Wizards draft go. And, obviously, it does not mean I'm "down" on Troy Brown Jr. as a player.

[DCZards]

Now, we know for a fact that I couldn't have traded down & still gotten Smith, b/c he went with the next pick. But... this was a deep draft, so if someone had been ringing my phone with an offer on our pick, I'd have listened with interest.

E.g. had Atlanta offered #s 19 & 34 I'd have been hard-pressed to say no. I'd still have an excellent chance to get Troy Brown, if I'm high on the guy, or Kevin Huerter, Grayson Allen or even Wagner -- plus, say, Mitchell Robinson.

Troy Brown & Mitchell Robinson is better than just Troy Brown -- by definition. If he's gone, then I'm still feeling that Grayson Allen & MItchell Robinson is better than just Troy Brown. Better *picks.* All of them, Robinson - Allen - Brown, could turn out busts of course!

If Philly had offered #s26 & 38, that too would have been tempting. Mitchell Robinson & either Khyri Thomas or DeAnthony Melton -- that too seems like more value than just Troy. Or maybe it could have been 26, 38 & 39, so that we get both Thomas & Melton.

PIF, I do like the scenarios you've put forth where the Zards trade the 15th pick in exchange for the opportunity to draft two high-potential players--one later in the first round and the other one early in the second round. That sounds like it would have been a smart move. Although, I don't now if I'd be willing to move all the way down to the 26th pick.

But, as you point out, it would have taken a willing partner for the Zards to make a trade of the kind you've outlined. For example, Atlanta would only have been willing to consider a trade of #19 & #34 for the Zards 15th pick if there was someone there at #15 that the Hawks REALLY wanted, someone they thought wouldn't be there at #19. Otherwise, what's Atlanta motivation for giving up the 4th pick in the second round to move up four spots in what you've described as a deep draft?

The trade scenarios you've painted look good in the fantasy world that we fans live in, but I'm certain they are a lot harder to pull off in reality. It's kinda hard to blame the Zards--or to say that EG "erred in taking Brown @ 15"--for not doing something that really wasn't in their total control. It takes two to tango when it comes to making trades.

[payitforward]

Now, we know for a fact that I couldn't have traded down & still gotten Smith, b/c he went with the next pick. But... this was a deep draft, so if someone had been ringing my phone with an offer on our pick, I'd have listened with interest.

E.g. had Atlanta offered #s 19 & 34 I'd have been hard-pressed to say no. I'd still have an excellent chance to get Troy Brown, if I'm high on the guy, or Kevin Huerter, Grayson Allen or even Wagner -- plus, say, Mitchell Robinson.

Troy Brown & Mitchell Robinson is better than just Troy Brown -- by definition. If he's gone, then I'm still feeling that Grayson Allen & MItchell Robinson is better than just Troy Brown. Better *picks.* All of them, Robinson - Allen - Brown, could turn out busts of course!

If Philly had offered #s26 & 38, that too would have been tempting. Mitchell Robinson & either Khyri Thomas or DeAnthony Melton -- that too seems like more value than just Troy. Or maybe it could have been 26, 38 & 39, so that we get both Thomas & Melton.

PIF, I do like the scenarios you've put forth where the Zards trade the 15th pick in exchange for the opportunity to draft two high-potential players--one later in the first round and the other one early in the second round. That sounds like it would have been a smart move. Although, I don't now if I'd be willing to move all the way down to the 26th pick.

But, as you point out, it would have taken a willing partner for the Zards to make a trade of the kind you've outlined. For example, Atlanta would only have been willing to consider a trade of #19 & #34 for the Zards 15th pick if there was someone there at #15 that the Hawks REALLY wanted, someone they thought wouldn't be there at #19. Otherwise, what's Atlanta motivation for giving up the 4th pick in the second round to move up four spots in what you've described as a deep draft?

The trade scenarios you've painted look good in the fantasy world that we fans live in, but I'm certain they are a lot harder to pull off in reality. It's kinda hard to blame the Zards--or to say that EG "erred in taking Brown @ 15"--for not doing something that really wasn't in their total control. It takes two to tango when it comes to making trades.

It goes w/o saying that I can't verify the possibility of any trade scenario. But, that doesn't mean there is no discussion to have or that there's no way to analyze or criticize moves.

In any case, the real test is success. We've been "rebuilding" for virtually a decade, Zards. We've had an incredible number of resources to do it. But, we've made bad decision after bad decision -- in drafts, in trades, in FA signings.

The result? We're a 44 win team over the last 3 years & over the last 5 years. In the weaker of the 2 conferences.

That is the "reality" you seem determined to approve.

Edit: that last sentence goes a little too far. I should have written: "That is the 'reality' I'd like to alter."

[payitforward]

...The trade scenarios you've painted look good in the fantasy world that we fans live in...

I want to comment on what I think (perhaps incorrectly) is the POV behind this phrase. I started thinking about this comment a month or so ago when Zards made a similar comment about opinions held by "guys on a message board." This is, however, not intended as a criticism of Zards -- rather, it's about the strange & interesting world in which we live.

In 1983 I lived in SF & was a Warriors fan. That year, with the 6th pick in the draft, the team took a kid named Russell Cross out of Purdue. From the first time he stepped on the court in a Warriors uniform it was obvious that he would be a bust. For one thing, he had bad knees. For another, he was a complete stiff. The two facts might have been related.

It turned out that no one in the Warriors organization had ever seen Russell Cross play before drafting him! There wasn't much college basketball on TV back then. There was no video archive on players. There was no source of player statistics. NBA teams didn't employ full-time player-evaluation people. By and large teams relied on player reports from independent scouts. Professionals. Experts. & that's how the Warriors picked Russell Cross.

What's my point? Well, obviously, we live in a different world these days. Right now Dat (to use him as my example) has access to comprehensive statistics & powerful tools to analyze them. He can watch a huge amount of video of any player. Broken down just about any way to illustrate player pluses or minuses.

In short, Dat has more information about an NBA draft prospect than the Warriors GM had in '83. He has more or less the same information about a prospect as the Wizards FO has. Now, this is not just true about basketball, obviously. We live in a world in which everybody has instant access to an enormous body of information.

For that reason, when the Wizards pick Jan Vesely & Dat mutters "why not Kawhi Leonard, you idiots," when they pick Chris Singleton while he screams "Harris or Butler," when they pick Satoransky as he pleads "Crowder, Green, Barton please," when they trade an asset for a shot at GRIII, when they sell R2 picks that would bring them good players they need, when they swap a lottery pick for Kieff, etc. etc. etc. -- the response that Dat's just a guy on a message board is irrelevant. Even though, sure, it's true.

Of course, Dat can be wrong too -- which he wouldn't deny. & obviously there will also be individual instances where a FO has information that Dat doesn't have access to.

But neither of these facts affect the overall point: if Dat (or CCJ, or PIF, or Ruz etc.) can call 'em over & over through the years, while Ernie & his staff stumble over & over, what this means, unambiguously, is that Ernie & his staff are basically incompetent. It's also a pretty good indication that Dat might be right when he opines that Troy Brown Jr. didn't rate high enough to be worth the #15 pick.

Above all, the response that his opinion is just another fan-world fantasy from some guy on a message board -- while Ernie & his crew are professionals dealing in "reality" -- carries no weight.

The fact that other franchises (e.g. the Warriors, the Spurs, etc.) do well in the draft, make trades that actually improve them, sign FAs that work out -- that, in essence, they can go from really bad to actually contending for and/or winning titles -- provides plenty of corroboration of the point. In 2009-10, two teams went 26-56. One of those teams rebuilt to great effect. The other... not so much.

[NatP4]

dumpster fire thread.